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1.
To remain viable, agricultural producers will need to adapt to changing climatic conditions in coming decades. Agricultural advisers play an important role in helping producers decide to adopt appropriate adaptation practices. Photovisualizations have the potential to complement currently utilized outreach and education strategies. This research uses a focus group approach to explore (1) whether photovisualizations can aid in decision-making about climate change adaptation, and (2) what characteristics of photovisualizations are most effective at conveying spatial aspects of adaptation practices. We found that photovisualizations generate rich discussions about ecological and economic effects as well as tradeoffs associated with climate adaptation practices. To have the greatest impact, photovisualizations should be used when producers are considering implementing high-cost or high-risk projects, when practices are likely to dramatically change the visual landscape, or when a practice is unfamiliar to a producer. 相似文献
2.
Sarah F. Trainor Monika Calef David Natcher F. Stuart Chapin III A. David McGuire Orville Huntington Paul Duffy T. Scott Rupp La'Ona DeWilde Mary Kwart Nancy Fresco & Amy Lauren Lovecraft 《Polar research》2009,28(1):100-118
This paper explores whether fundamental differences exist between urban and rural vulnerability to climate-induced changes in the fire regime of interior Alaska. We further examine how communities and fire managers have responded to these changes and what additional adaptations could be put in place. We engage a variety of social science methods, including demographic analysis, semi-structured interviews, surveys, workshops and observations of public meetings. This work is part of an interdisciplinary study of feedback and interactions between climate, vegetation, fire and human components of the Boreal forest social–ecological system of interior Alaska. We have learned that although urban and rural communities in interior Alaska face similar increased exposure to wildfire as a result of climate change, important differences exist in their sensitivity to these biophysical, climate-induced changes. In particular, reliance on wild foods, delayed suppression response, financial resources and institutional connections vary between urban and rural communities. These differences depend largely on social, economic and institutional factors, and are not necessarily related to biophysical climate impacts per se. Fire management and suppression action motivated by political, economic or other pressures can serve as unintentional or indirect adaptation to climate change. However, this indirect response alone may not sufficiently reduce vulnerability to a changing fire regime. More deliberate and strategic responses may be required, given the magnitude of the expected climate change and the likelihood of an intensification of the fire regime in interior Alaska. 相似文献
3.
随着气候变化对农业系统的影响不断加剧,为保障粮食安全,必须掌握变化中的自然与人文因素,判别农 业景观中可调整的关键机制,依据未来的可能情景,尽早订定农业景观优化方案。本研究以土壤侵蚀问题为切入 点,整合相关的环境因子,构建农业景观对土壤侵蚀适应性的研究框架。基本思路为首先通过目前气候变化对土壤 侵蚀的影响研究,为不同时空尺度上土壤侵蚀发生、发展趋势提供理论依据;其次,从增强未来农业景观对土壤侵 蚀适应能力的角度,详细讨论景观类型、空间配置和管理措施等与土壤侵蚀的关系,以提高农业景观优化配置的针 对性;最后,为科学评价农业景观对土壤侵蚀适应的程度,基于Agent 模型原理设计土壤侵蚀模拟模型,通过不同 土壤侵蚀情景下景观类型、结构、空间配置和管理措施等的适应性分析,为有效提升区域农业景观的土壤抗侵蚀能 力提供科学依据。 相似文献
4.
在简要介绍气候变化对欧洲的影响、欧盟的气候变化适应举措的基础上,分析了欧盟水资源管理、海洋与渔业、沿海地区、农业、林业、生物多样性、金融与保险、减灾防灾、人类健康等9个重点领域的气候变化适应政策行动;总结了欧盟气候变化适应政策行动的特征：以“自上而下”的政府层面举措与“自下而上”的脆弱经济部门应对策略相结合,采取分阶段的推进方式,并重视相关平台工具的开发应用;最后,结合我国国情和气候变化适应行动现状,提出了我国加强气候变化适应政策行动的建议：及时制定气候变化适应国家战略;加强气候变化适应的科技基础设施与条件平台建设;加快完善气候变化适应的体制机制建设;强化气候变化适应的能力建设。 相似文献
5.
Future climate change potentially can have a strong impact on the African continent. Of special concern are the effects on food security and the restricted adaptive capacity of Africa's poverty stricken population. Targeted policy interventions are, therefore, of vital importance. While there is a broad consensus on selection of climate and agricultural indicators, a coherent spatial representation of the populations' vulnerability is still subject to debate, basically because important drivers at household and institutional level are captured at the coarser (sub)-national level only. This paper aims to address this shortcoming by capitalizing on available spatially explicit information on households, food security institutions and natural resources to identify and characterize vulnerable groups in climate change prone areas of East and West Africa. First, we identify and localize groups with varying degrees of vulnerability, using food security and health indicators from georeferenced household surveys. Second, we characterize these vulnerable groups using statistical techniques that report on the frequency of occurrence of household characteristics, social bonding, remittances and agro-ecological endowments. Third we localize areas where climate change conditions affect production of major staple crops even after a maximum adaptation of crop rotations. Fourth, we characterize the vulnerable groups in the climate change affected areas and compare their profiles with the overall assessment to elucidate whether generic or climate change targeted policies are required. Since climate change will impact predominantly on agricultural production, our analysis focuses on the rural areas. For West Africa, we find that vulnerable groups in areas likely to be affected by climate change do not fundamentally differ from vulnerable groups in the study area in general. However, in East Africa there are remarkable differences between these groups which leads to the conclusion that in this part of Africa, poverty reducing strategies for climate change affected areas should differ from generic ones. 相似文献
6.
把空间概念“都”与产业类别“农”融于一体的“都农关系”,是日本近70年来社会经济发展的重要议题之一。基于对中国城市化发展进入都市化高级阶段,以及乡村振兴亟需多类型化实施的认识背景,对日本都农关系的演变进行历史梳理,划分出都农分离、都农共生和都农融合3个阶段,并从社会经济宏观背景变化的视角说明阶段递进的原因。同时把都市农业视为都农关系的表征,分析其在农户结构、种植结构和功能结构上的系列响应。在此基础上,援引制度学派的基本原理,探索日本都农关系从对立走向融合的制度变迁机理。本文认为,都农融合是不可逆转的潮流,因此有必要把“都农关系”转化为中国的政策性概念,强化从都市区视角处理城乡融合创新发展问题。建设具有中国特色的都农融合和都市农业发展体系,需要一系列的制度创新,也亟需学术界主动的理论探索。 相似文献
7.
This article studies the participation of stakeholders in climate change decision-making in Alaska's National Parks. We place stakeholder participation within literatures on environmental and climate change decision-making. We conducted participant observation and interviews in two planning workshops to investigate the decision-making process, and our findings are three-fold. First, the inclusion of diverse stakeholders expanded climate change decision-making beyond National Park Service (NPS) institutional constraints. Second, workshops of the Climate Change Scenario Planning Project (CCSPP) enhanced institutional understandings of participants' attitudes towards climate change and climate change decision-making. Third, the geographical context of climate change influences the decision-making process. As the first regional approach to climate change decision-making within the NPS, the CCSPP serves as a model for future climate change planning in public land agencies. This study shows how the participation of stakeholders can contribute to robust decisions, may move climate change decision-making beyond institutional barriers, and can provide information about attitudes towards climate change decision-making. 相似文献
8.
Climate variability and rural livelihoods: assessing the impact of seasonal climate forecasts in Lesotho 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
Climate variability acutely affects rural livelihoods and agricultural productivity, yet it is just one of many stresses that vulnerable rural households have to cope with. A livelihood approach is used to assess the potential role that seasonal climate forecasts might play in increasing adaptive capacity in response to climate variability, using Lesotho as a case study. An examination of the assets and strategies that rural households employ enables a holistic assessment of the impact seasonal forecasts could have on rural livelihoods. This research thereby bridges macro-level variability with local-level impacts and adaptation to provide insight into the dynamics of forecast use and impact among vulnerable groups. 相似文献
9.
地理标志农产品种植户的生计脆弱性及影响因素研究————以陕西眉县、周至县为例 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
地理标志农产品可以促进农业绿色高质量发展,推动乡村振兴并改善种植户生计。气候变化和极端气候事件的增加可能会加剧地理标志农产品种植户的生计脆弱性。以地理标志农产品猕猴桃种植区为例,构建生计脆弱性评估框架,结合熵值法和自然断点法评估种植户的生计脆弱性,运用有序Logistic回归和夏普利值分解法探究种植户生计脆弱性的影响因素及其贡献度。结果表明：① 处于中、高度脆弱性等级的种植户所占比例较大,约占64.10%。② 猕猴桃的生产特征对生计脆弱性等级的贡献率最大为48.47%。是否采用地理标志商标、是否参与地理标志商标培训、是否采用合作生产方式生产对种植户的生计脆弱性有显著影响。③ 在猕猴桃种植特征方面,种植年限对种植户的生计脆弱性等级有显著影响,贡献率达12.20%。④ 在适应行为采用强度方面,秋季连阴雨适应行为采用强度对猕猴桃种植户的生计脆弱性等级有显著影响,贡献率达20.75%。 相似文献
10.
江汉平原乡村农户就业变迁及其影响因素研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
当代乡村就业变迁是透视乡村人地关系变化的重要视角。论文基于湖北省京山市乡村常住农户抽样调查和实地访谈数据,沿循类型—空间—模式的逻辑主线,通过变化率指数、就业转移矩阵揭示案例地区农户就业变迁特征;同时运用无序多分类Logistic回归模型进行影响因素分析。研究表明：① 2007—2017年乡村农户就业类型已由纯农就业主体演变为兼业就业主导,非农就业增加显著;② 农户就业区位距离衰减特征弱化,村域作为农户就业转移的出发源与回流汇地位突出;③ 村域纯农就业仍是乡村农户就业的主流模式,但就业方式多元化成为农户就业新趋势;④ 农户就业模式选择是农户就业需求、地方就业供给、环境就业媒介多因素综合作用的结果。研究结果能够为中国农区人地关系变化及乡村振兴战略实施提供科学信息。 相似文献
11.
中国作物物候对气候变化的响应与适应研究进展 总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5
以气候变暖为主要特征的气候变化对作物物候产生了重要的影响,通常气温升高会导致作物生长速度加快,生育期缩短,从而造成作物产量下降,不利于农业发展。同时,作物物候变化可以直接或间接反映气候变化情况,对于气候变化具有重要的指示意义。作物物候的研究对于农业气象灾害的预防、农业生产管理水平的进步以及农业产量提高都极为关键。随着全球地表气温的持续升高,作物物候相关研究也越来越引起科学家的关注。论文结合作物物候的主要研究方法,综述了中国近几十年来小麦、玉米、水稻以及棉花、大豆等主要农作物的生育期变化特征以及主要的驱动因子,得到以下主要结论：①在研究方法上,统计分析方法应用最为普遍,其他几种方法都需要与统计分析方法相结合使用。另外,作物机理模型模拟方法易于操作、可行性强,在物候研究中应用也比较多。遥感反演方法对作物生育期的特征规律要求较高,一般主要关注作物返青期。②整体上,小麦全生育期主要呈缩短趋势,而玉米和水稻全生育期以延长趋势为主。③作物物候变化的驱动因子主要是气候变化和农业管理措施改变,其中,气候变化是主导驱动因子,对作物物候变化起决定作用,而调整农业管理措施,在一定程度上抵消气候变化对作物生育期的不利影响。作物物候对气候变化的响应和适应研究可以为农业生产适应气候变化提供重要的理论依据和对策。 相似文献
12.
采用全要素生产率F?re-Primont指数,分析了纳入气候要素和非纳入气候要素2种情景的重庆市全要素生产率增长时空变化。结果表明：① 相比于非纳入气候要素情景,纳入气候要素的重庆市农业全要素生产率增长数值尽管偏低,但具有显著的空间分异,且能较好的反映农业技术进步与极端干旱事件对农业生产的影响。② 重庆市农业全要素生产率增长的主要驱动力来自技术进步;而增长阻碍主要来自剩余混合效率,因此应加强农业结构性改革,进一步改善农业生产投入产出结构。③ 受农业发展基础和生产结构的影响,重庆市农业全要素生产率增长较大的地区集中在西部区县;而增长偏低地区集中在主城区。④ 2006年重庆极端干旱事件对农业全要素生产率增长产生显著影响,导致农业全要素生产率增长在2006年明显偏低;各区县受极端干旱事件的影响不同,应根据各区县农业资源条件,有针对性提出适应气候变化的农业生产策略。 相似文献
13.
In the early 1990s, China stepped into the stage of rapid urbanization with a flourishing economy and new technological development. Surplus labor from rural areas flooded into cities and became the main force of urban development. However some severe threats to human survival emerged from urbanization, such as over- extensive urban development, excessive resource consumption, ecological degradation, food security and safety risks and social crises. It has become an imperative to balance urban and rural development to achieve greater harmony between nature and society. This paper firstly tried to focus on public dietary change, agricultural industry development, institutional guarantee, ecological restoration, as well as cultural tourism in urban and peri-urban agricultural heritage sites. Then, it established a development model, balanced the urbanization and urban-supported agriculture. This paper proposed “Agricultural heritage systems” as an entry point for balancing the development of urban areas and rural areas. Agricultural heritage systems can inherit local traditional culture, keep the green and organic agriculture cultivation systems, exploit the distinct landscape tourism, and the like for diversified development; In addition, agricultural heritage systems can take full advantage of abundant funds, firm the institutional guarantee and advanced technologies from the nearby urban complex for regurgitation-feeding of rural enterprises. With the help of these strategies, we can achieve the harmony of “Ecological Urban” and “Garden Countryside”. 相似文献
14.
区域气候变化适应度评价——以咸阳市为例 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5
选取经济、农业、社会和资源环境系统作为区域气候变化适应度的评价子系统,运用AHP分析法,确定各评价因子的权重,运用模糊综合评判分析法,确定对气候变化适应的隶属度并判断适应度。结果表明,咸阳市1998-2007年对气候变化适应的隶属度呈逐年增加趋势,适应度处于由"较弱"向"一般"过渡状态,区域整体及各子系统对气候变化的适应处于低水平状态。其中经济系统适应度由"弱"到"强",受不利因素影响程度小;农业系统适应度由"弱"到"一般",受不利因素影响程度较大;社会系统适应度由"较弱"到"较强";资源环境系统适应度由"弱"到"一般",受不利因素的影响程度较大,稳定性差。 相似文献
15.
Jonathon Collins 《The Australian geographer》2014,45(3):289-307
ABSTRACTBangladesh is at the forefront of countries experiencing and debating climate change, despite having contributed little to global emissions, and has the greatest vulnerability to climate change due to inadequate institutional support for the dense population dispersed in low-lying terrain. A micro-level study of livelihoods in the Panpatti Union, a district of the coastal zone exposed to climate stress and an array of other social, economic and political stresses, demonstrated that adaptation strategies to a range of shocks were both reactive and proactive. The persistent nature of shocks, and the limited margins in which to respond, meant that achieving sustainable long-term livelihoods was unusually difficult. Despite cases of dynamism and flexibility, where livelihoods had been effectively diversified, rural people largely failed to reduce their exposure to vulnerability. That was especially true of extremely poor, landless and female-headed households. In such challenging circumstances external interventions were required to ensure sustainable development, but were unlikely because of the isolation of Panpatti and the number of villages and people in similar circumstances. This emphasised the need to develop a more robust livelihoods framework to support the most vulnerable communities in severe economic and environmental contexts where climate change is likely to exacerbate all existing problems. 相似文献
16.
广东省乡村类型划分及乡村性评价的时空变化 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
为认识广东省乡村类型及乡村发展程度,依据产业的 GDP 比重划分广东省乡村发展类型,构建广东省乡村性评价的指标体系,测算了广东省内 67 个县级区域在 2001、2005、2009 及 2013 年的乡村性指数并划分乡村性强度,分析得出了近 10 a 广东省乡村发展的时空变化特点。结果表明：1）广东省乡村类型可划分为农业主导型、工业主导型、商旅服务型及均衡发展型,均衡发展型乡村面积在各年份中所占比例均最大,农业主导型乡村面积在逐年减少,工业主导型乡村呈波动变化状态,商旅服务型乡村则发展较平稳;2）广东省各县域的乡村性指数均值都在下降,从 2001 年的 0.60 下降至 2013 年的 0.34,均值最低的为工业主导型乡村,最高的为农业主导型乡村,变化最大的是均衡发展型乡村;3）广东省乡村性强度可划分为弱、较弱、中等、较强、强 5 个等级,近 10 a 中,弱与较弱等级乡村面积在大幅增加,中等强度的乡村呈先增加后减少趋势,较强等级乡村则大幅减少,而强等级的乡村则逐渐消失;4）各类型乡村的乡村性强度变化有所差异,农业主导型与工业主导型的强度变化均为稳步下降,商旅服务型的强度则经历了稳定阶段后再下降,均衡发展型的强度下降变化较大。 相似文献
17.
国内外农户对气候变化/变异感知与适应研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于国内外农户气候变化感知和适应研究进展,在辨析气候变化和气候变异概念的基础上,阐释农户气候变化/变异感知结果及影响因素。研究发现农户气候变化感知与适应行为之间存在不确定关系,农户气候变化感知直接转化为适应策略需克服一系列障碍因素。针对农户气候变化适应策略,在系统梳理国内外农户适应策略的基础上,对这些策略是否属于气候变化和变异适应行为提出质疑,认为不能忽略其他复杂的社会经济和政治因素对这些措施的驱动作用。最后,对中国未来研究提出慎重大规模开展农户气候变化感知及适应研究、厘清气候变化/变异感知与适应策略之间关系和重视时空异质性以及农户异质性研究三点展望。 相似文献
18.
黄土高原和鲁西南案例区乡村居民对全球气候变化认知 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于甘肃省会宁县黄河灌溉区、旱作农业区和山东省单县农业区的问卷调查,分析了案例区乡村居民对全球气候变化认知的一般特征、减缓全球气候变化的能力认知、义务认知和支付意愿及其区域和社会人口差异。研究发现:案例区乡村居民普遍关注全球气候变化,但对全球气候变化概念和发生原因的理解较肤浅。一定程度上,受访者通过当地气候变化及其影响来理解全球气候变化;受访者认为中央政府和国际组织应为减缓全球气候变化负主要责任,个人和家庭在减缓气候变化方面能力有限、支付意愿低,不同文化程度和职业受访者认知差异明显;存在原因认知决定责任者归属和能力认知、进而决定支付意愿的因果链,作者据此提出了政策建议。 相似文献
19.
20.
Geoff Kuehne 《社会与自然资源》2014,27(5):492-506
This exploratory study aims to examine (1) the reasons for farmers’ range of climate change beliefs and (2) how those beliefs affect their climate change adaptation responses. Interviews with 11 key-informant irrigators from the South Australian Riverland uncovered skepticism about climate change predictions. Interviewees mostly believed changes to the climate were not human-induced but were a result of natural cycles, which meant that they then felt less obliged to undertake climate-change adaptation responses. With low water allocations and low commodity prices, most did not identify climate change as their most compelling problem. They found it hard to identify climate change adaptation options beyond those they had implemented to manage their immediate problems. The reasons for interviewees’ stated skepticism are complex, but not as equated to disbelief as they might seem. Their beliefs about climate change appear to be chosen to allow them to retain hope for the future. 相似文献