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1.
The October 21, 1766 earthquake is the most widely felt event in the seismic history of Trinidad and Venezuela. Previous works diverged on the interpretation of the historical data available for this event. They associated the earthquake either with the Lesser Antilles subduction zone, with strike-slip motion along El Pilar fault, or with intraplate deformation at the edge of Guyana shield. Isoseismal areas are proposed after a new search and analysis of primary and secondary sources of historical information. Two of the largest earthquakes of the twentieth century which occurred in the region, the 1968 (M S 6.4, h = 103 km), and the 1997 (M W 6.9, h = 25 km) events, for which both intensity data and instrumentally determined source parameters are available, are used to calibrate the isoseismal areas and to interpret them in terms of source depth and magnitude. It is concluded that the large extent of intensity values higher than V is diagnostic of the depth (85 ± 20 km) of the 1766 source, and of local amplifications of ground motion due to soft soil conditions and to strong contrasts of impedance at the edge of Guyana shield. It is proposed that the event occurred either in slab, or close to the bottom lithospheric interface between the Caribbean and South American plates (∼11°N; ∼62.5°W). The value of the magnitude is estimated at 6.5 < M S < 7.5 depending on the source depth and on the decay of ground motion as a function of distance. Deep and intermediate depth earthquakes can induce important casualties in Trinidad, Venezuela, and Guyana, possibly more damaging than those induced by shallower earthquakes along the strike of El Pilar Fault.  相似文献   

2.
According to geological tectonics and seismic activites this paper devided North China (30°–45°N, 105°–130°E) into four areas. We analyzed the North China earthquake catalogue from 1970 to 1986 (from 1965 to 1986 for Huabei, the North China, plain region) and identified forty-two bursts of aftershock. Seven of them occurred in aftershock regions of strong earthquakes and seventeen of them in the seismic swarm regions. The relation between strong earthquakes with the remaining eighteen bursts of aftershocks has been studied and tested statistically in this paper. The result of statistical testing show that the random probabilityp of coincidence of bursts of aftershock with subsequent strong earthquakes is less than six percent. By Xu’sR scoring method the efficacy of predicting strong earthquake from bursts of aftershock is estimated greater than 39 percent. Following the method proposed in the paper we analyzed the earthquake catalogue of China from 1987 to June, 1988. The results show that there was only one burst of aftershock occurred on Jan. 6, 1988 withM=3.6 in Xiuyan of Northeast China. It implicates that a potential earthquake withM S⩽5 might occur in one year afterwards in the region of Northeast China. Actually on Feb. 25, 1988 an earthquake withM S=5.3 occurred in Zhangwu of Northeast China. Another example is Datong-Yanggao shock on October 18, 1989 which is a burst of aftershock. Three hours after an expected shock withM =6.1 took place in the same area. Two examples above have been tested in practical prediction and this shows that bursts of aftershocks are significant in predicting strong earthquakes. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 273–280, 1991. Part of earthquake catalogue is from Jinbiao Chen, Peiyan Chen and Quanlin Li.  相似文献   

3.
Northeast India and adjoining regions (20°–32° N and 87°–100° E) are highly vulnerable to earthquake hazard in the Indian sub-continent, which fall under seismic zones V, IV and III in the seismic zoning map of India with magnitudes M exceeding 8, 7 and 6, respectively. It has experienced two devastating earthquakes, namely, the Shillong Plateau earthquake of June 12, 1897 (M w 8.1) and the Assam earthquake of August 15, 1950 (M w 8.5) that caused huge loss of lives and property in the Indian sub-continent. In the present study, the probabilities of the occurrences of earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 7.0 during a specified interval of time has been estimated on the basis of three probabilistic models, namely, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal, with the help of the earthquake catalogue spanning the period 1846 to 1995. The method of maximum likelihood has been used to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters. The logarithmic probability of likelihood function (ln L) is estimated and used to compare the suitability of models and it was found that the Gamma model fits best with the actual data. The sample mean interval of occurrence of such earthquakes is estimated as 7.82 years in the northeast India region and the expected mean values for Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal distributions are estimated as 7.837, 7.820 and 8.269 years, respectively. The estimated cumulative probability for an earthquake M ≥ 7.0 reaches 0.8 after about 15–16 (2010–2011) years and 0.9 after about 18–20 (2013–2015) years from the occurrence of the last earthquake (1995) in the region. The estimated conditional probability also reaches 0.8 to 0.9 after about 13–17 (2008–2012) years in the considered region for an earthquake M ≥ 7.0 when the elapsed time is zero years. However, the conditional probability reaches 0.8 to 0.9 after about 9–13 (2018–2022) years for earthquake M ≥ 7.0 when the elapsed time is 14 years (i.e. 2009).  相似文献   

4.
Data from the literature were used to systematize intermediate-term (with advance times of 1 month to ∼2.5 years) precursors to the M ≥ 6.6 Kamchatka earthquakes of 1987–2004. The precursors were observed as changes in seismological, geodetic, geophysical, water-level, and hydrochemical parameters. Retrospective assessment of the information content in these intermediate-term precursors for earthquake prediction is in progress. The focus was on estimating the occurrence times of various precursors as functions of earthquake parameters (magnitude M, hypocentral distance R, and epicenter location). In the conditions of the Kamchatka observing network, precursors can be identified by a combination of methods, mostly before M ∼ 7 earthquakes or greater south of the Kronotskii Peninsula, for which M/logR ≥ 3. It is shown that the relative proportion of earthquakes for which precursors have been identified in the observations considered here is 0.43–0.86.  相似文献   

5.
Broadband P and S waves source spectra of 12 MS5.0 earthquakes of the 1997 Jiashi, Xinjiang, China, earthquake swarm recorded at 13 GDSN stations have been analyzed. Rupture size and static stress drop of these earthquakes have been estimated through measuring the corner frequency of the source spectra. Direction of rupture propagation of the earthquake faulting has also been inferred from the azimuthal variation of the corner frequency. The main results are as follows: ①The rupture size of MS6.0 strong earthquakes is in the range of 10~20 km, while that of MS=5.0~5.5 earthquakes is 6~10 km.② The static stress drop of the swarm earthquakes is rather low, being of the order of 0.1 MPa. This implies that the deformation release rate in the source region may be low. ③ Stress drop of the earthquakes appears to be proportional to their seismic moment, and also to be dependent on their focal mechanism. The stress drop of normal faulting earthquakes is usually lower than that of strike-slip type earthquakes. ④ For each MS6.0 earthquake there exists an apparent azimuthal variation of the corner frequencies. Azimuthally variation pattern of corner frequencies of different earthquakes shows that the source rupture pattern of the Jiashi earthquake swarm is complex and no uniform rupture expanding direction exists.  相似文献   

6.
Frequency analysis of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 2004, one of the most significant and best-recorded earthquakes, is based on spectral seismograms obtained from their broadband seismograms. The Sumatra-Andaman earthquake is found to have a wide-range frequency content of P-wave radiation during the rupturing process. On the basis of stacking spectral seismograms we distinguished four time events of the rupturing process of a total length of about 540 s. The frequency, f max, is the highest for the first event (0.163 Hz in time interval 0–88 s), lowest for the second — which is the strongest (0.075 Hz in time interval 88–204 s). For third and fourth events frequencies are similar (0.089 and 0.082 Hz in time intervals 204–452 and 452–537 s, respectively). The frequency also shows an azimuthal dependence (±0.02 Hz). Azimuths for which the frequency, f max, has maximum and minimum values are 203–222° and 23–42°, respectively. These observations are discussed in relation to previously published papers on this topic.  相似文献   

7.
IntroductionMany anomalies due to earthquake have been recorded in observation of earth-resistivity for30 years and over, which showed that there objectively existed the anomalies of each-resistivity.The crustal strUcture and medium conditions are quite complex, so the complexity of the temporal,spatial and intensive development of the anomalies is inevitable. Both of time and amplitUde ofanomalies among some stations near an epicenter are different (even among different observational directi…  相似文献   

8.
The source parameters of the Bohai Sea earthquake, July 18, 1969 and Yongshan, Yunnan earthquake, May 11, 1974 were determined by full — wave theory synthetic seismograms of teleseismic P waves. P+pP+sP wereform were calculated with WKBJ approximation and real integral paths. One — dimensional unilateral, finite propagation source was also considered. By trail — and — error in comparing the theoretical seismograms with the observational ones of WWSSN stations, the source parameters were obtained as follow: for Bohai earthquake, φ=195°, δ=85°, λ=65°,M o=0.9×1019Nm,L=59.9km.V R=3.5km/s, ∧ R =160°; for Yongshan earthquake, φ=240°, δ=80°, ∧=150°,M o=1.3×1018Nm,L=48.8km,V R=3km/s, ∧ R =−10°, where φ is strike, δ dip angle, λ slip angle,M o seismic moment,L rupture length,V R rupture propagation speed. As III type fractures the faulting propagated along the fault planes, and ∧ R is the angle from the strike to the propagation direction. Yongshan earthquake showed complexity in its focal process, having four sub—ruptures during the first 60 seconds. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 1–8, 1991.  相似文献   

9.
The Central Apennines, Italy, are characterized by moderate seismic activity on normal faults, oriented in directions parallel to the Apenninic chain. The subject of this study is the Umbria-Marche Apennines, a segment approximately 200-km long, where three main seismic events occurred in the last three decades. The 1979 Norcia earthquake was a Mw = 5.8 event, taking place at the south end of the considered segment. The 1984 Gubbio earthquake was a Mw = 5.6 event which took place at the north end. The 1997-1998 Colfiorito sequence constituted 8 main shocks with magnitudes Mw between 5 and 6 and epicenters located between the Gubbio and the Norcia earthquake areas. A model made of an elastic half-space is considered, in which the seismic sources are represented by rectangular dislocations which have the appropriate values of source parameters, and in which the static stress field produced by each event is calculated. The analysis of the Coulomb stress change (ΔC) as a function of time shows that the coseismic stress transfer and fault interaction played an important role in the region during the past three decades: 7 earthquakes of the 9 considered took place where ΔC>0. Such an interaction has been confirmed by the analysis of the aftershocks in the Colfiorito zone post September 26, 1997: about the 61% of the aftershocks considered took place where ΔC>0. The comparison between the ΔCs due to the coseismic stress transfer and the rate ΔĊt due to the tectonic stress allows us to quantify the time advance of the earthquakes. The ΔCs pattern shows positive values in two areas that can be regarded as historical seismic gaps.  相似文献   

10.
We report results from a detailed study of seismicity in central Kamchatka for the period from 1960 to 1997 using a modified traditional approach. The basic elements of this approach include (a) segmentation of the seismic region concerned (the Kronotskii and Shipunskii geoblocks, the continental slope and offshore blocks), (b) studying the variation in the rate of M = 4.5–7.0 earthquakes and in the amount of seismic energy release over time, (c) studying the seismicity variations, (d) separate estimates of earthquake recurrence for depths of 0–50 and 50–100 km. As a result, besides corroborating the fact that a quiescence occurred before the December 5, 1997, M = 7.9 Kronotskii earthquake, we also found a relationship between the start of the quiescence and the position of the seismic zone with respect to the rupture initiation. The earliest date of the quiescence (decreasing seismicity rate and seismic energy release) was due to the M = 4.5–7.0 earthquakes at depths of 0–100 km in the Kronotskii geoblock (8–9 years prior to the earthquake). The intermediate start of the quiescence was due to distant seismic zones of the Shipunskii geoblock and the circular zone using the RTL method, combining the Shipunskii and Kronotskii geoblocks (6 years). Based on the low magnitude seismicity (M≥2.6) at depths of 0–70 km in the southwestern part of the epicentral zone (50–100 km from the mainshock epicenter), the quiescence was inferred to have occurred a little over 3 years (40 months) before the mainshock time and a little over 2 years (25 months) in the immediate vicinity of the epicenter (0–50 km). These results enable a more reliable identification of other types of geophysical precursors during seismic quiescences before disastrous earthquakes.  相似文献   

11.
Using the WKBJ approximation method we calculate the synthetic teleseismograms of P and PP waves to match the observed ones of six large Chinese earthquakes with known focal mechanisms: Tibet earthquake of July 14, 1973; Haicheng earthquake of February 4, 1975; Songpan earthquakes of August 16, 1976, August 21, 1976 and August 23, 1976 and Nignhe earthquake of November 15, 1976. The focal mechanism of the Tibet earthquake is discussed to examine the technique used in the calculation. We note that the amplitude ratios of PP and P waves (A PP/A P) have different characteristics for dip—slip events and strike—slip events within certain epicentral distances. We calculate the synthetic teleseismograms of P and PP waves for the strike—slip and dip—slip events with fault angles of 330°, 240° and 0°, focal depths of 8 km, 17 km and 24 km, at the assumed station with an azimuth of 310° and epicentral distances from 40°; to 80°. The diagrams of maximum amplitude ratios of PP and P waves (A PP/A P) versus distances are given. The possibility to use the (A PP/A P) values to give an approximate estimation for the focal mechanism type is discussed. This work may be useful for determining the focal mechanism type for those earthquakes which have only few records such as the Chinese earthquakes from the 1930s to 1960s. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 150–160, 1991.  相似文献   

12.
GroupingoccurrencesbeingthefundamentalfeatureofthestrongearthquakesinChinesemainlandQin-ZuLI(李钦祖);Li-MinYU(于利民);Ji-YiWANG(王吉易...  相似文献   

13.
On July 20, 1995, an earthquake of M L=4.1 occurred in Huailai basin, northwest of Beijing, with epicenter coordinates 40.326°N, 115.448°E and focal depth 5.5 km. Following the main shock, seismicity sharply increased in the basin. This earthquake sequence was recorded by Sino-European Cooperative Huailai Digital Seismograph Network (HDSN) and the hypocentres were precisely located. About 2 hours after the occurrence of the main shock, a smaller event of M L=2.0 took place at 40.323°N, 115.447°E with a focal depth of 5.0 km, which is very close to the main shock. Using the M L=2.0 earthquake as an empirical Green’s function, a regularization method was applied to retrieve the far-field source-time function (STF) of the main shock. Considering the records of HDSN are the type of velocity, to depress high frequency noise, we removed instrument response from the records of the two events, then integrated them to get displacement seismogram before applying the regularization method. From the 5 field stations, P phases in vertical direction which mostly are about 0.5 s in length were used. The STFs obtained from each seismic phases are in good agreement, showing that the M L=4.1 earthquake consisted of two events. STFs from each station demonstrate an obvious “seismic Doppler effect”. Assuming the nodal plane striking 37° and dipping 40°, determined by using P wave first motion data and aftershock distribution, is the fault plane, through a trial and error method, the following results were drawn: Both of the events lasted about 0.1 s, the rupture length of the first one is 0.5 km, longer than the second one which is 0.3 km, and the rupture velocity of the first event is 5.0 km/s, larger than that of the second one which is about 3.0 km/s; the second event took place 0.06 s later than the first one; on the fault plane, the first event ruptured in the direction γ=140° measured clockwise from the strike of the fault, while the second event ruptured at γ=80°, the initial point of the second one locates at γ=−100° and 0.52 km from the beginning point of the first one. Using far-field ground displacement spectrum measurement method, the following source parameters about the M L=4.1 earthquake were also reached: the scalar earthquake moment is 3.3×1013 N·m, stress drop 4.6 MPa, rupture radius 0.16 km. Contribution No. 99FE2022, Institute of Geophysics, China Seismological Bureau. This study is supported by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation (95-07-411).  相似文献   

14.
The December 26, 2004 Sumatra–Andaman Island earthquake, which ruptured the Sunda Trench subduction zone, is one of the three largest earthquakes to occur since global monitoring began in the 1890s. Its seismic moment was M 0 = 1.00 × 1023–1.15 × 1023 Nm, corresponding to a moment-magnitude of M w = 9.3. The rupture propagated from south to north, with the southerly part of fault rupturing at a speed of 2.8 km/s. Rupture propagation appears to have slowed in the northern section, possibly to ∼2.1 km/s, although published estimates have considerable scatter. The average slip is ∼5 m along a shallowly dipping (8°), N31°W striking thrust fault. The majority of slip and moment release appears to have been concentrated in the southern part of the rupture zone, where slip locally exceeded 30 m. Stress loading from this earthquake caused the section of the plate boundary immediately to the south to rupture in a second, somewhat smaller earthquake. This second earthquake occurred on March 28, 2005 and had a moment-magnitude of M w = 8.5.  相似文献   

15.
A swarm of earthquakes of magnitudes up to M L = 3.8 stroke the region of West Bohemia/Vogtland (border area between Czechia and Germany) in October 2008. It occurred in the Novy Kostel focal zone, where also all recent earthquake swarms (1985/1986, 1997, and 2000) took place, and was striking by a fast sequence of macroseismically observed earthquakes. We present the basic characteristics of this swarm based on the observations of a local network WEBNET (West Bohemia seismic network), which has been operated in the epicentral area, on the Czech territory. The swarm was recorded by 13 to 23 permanent and mobile WEBNET stations surrounding the swarm epicenters. In addition, a part of the swarm was also recorded by strong-motion accelerometers, which represent the first true accelerograms of the swarm earthquakes in the region. The peak ground acceleration reached 0.65 m/s2. A comparison with previous earthquake swarms indicates that the total seismic moments released during the 1985/1986 and 2008 swarms are similar, of about 4E16 Nm, and that they represent the two largest swarms that occurred in the West Bohemia/ Vogtland region since the M L = 5.0 swarm of 1908. Characteristic features of the 2008 swarm are its short duration (4 weeks) and rapidity and, consequently, the fastest seismic moment release compared to previous swarms. Up to 25,000 events in the magnitude range of 0.5 < M L < 3.8 were detected using an automatic picker. A total of nine swarm phases can be distinguished in the swarm, five of them exceeding the magnitude level of 2.5. The magnitude–frequency distribution of the complete 2008 swarm activity shows a b value close to 1. The swarm hypocenters fall precisely on the same fault portion of the Novy Kostel focal zone that was activated by the 2000 swarm (M L ≤ 3.2) in a depth interval from 6 to 11 km and also by the 1985/1986 swarm (M L ≤ 4.6). The steeply dipping fault planes of the 2000 and 2008 swarms seem to be identical considering the location error of about 100 m. Furthermore, focal mechanisms of the 2008 swarm are identical with those of the 2000 swarm, both matching an average strike of 170° and dip of 80° of the activated fault segment. An overall upward migration of activity is observed with first events at the bottom and last events at the top of the of the activated fault patch. Similarities in the activated fault area and in the seismic moments released during the three largest recent swarms enable to estimate the seismic potential of the focal zone. If the whole segment of the fault plane was activated simultaneously, it would represent an earthquake of M L ~5. This is in good agreement with the estimates of the maximum magnitudes of earthquakes that occurred in the West Bohemia/Vogtland region in the past.  相似文献   

16.
Applying genetic algorithm to inversion of seismic moment tensor solution and using the data of P waveform from digital network and initial motion directions of P waves of Taiwan network stations, we studied the moment tensor solutions and focal parameters of the earthquake of M=7.3 on 16 September of 1994 in Taiwan Strait and other four quakes of M L≥5.8 in the near region (21°–26°N, 115°–120°E). Among the five earthquakes, the quake of M=7.3 on September 16, 1994 in Taiwan Strait is the strongest one in the southeastern coast area since Nan’ao earthquake of M=7.3 in 1918. The results show that moment tensor solution of M=7.3 earthquake is mainly double-couple component, and is normal fault whose fault plane is near NW. The strike of the fault plane resembles that of the distributive bands of earthquakes before the main event and fracture pattern shown by aftershocks. The tension stress axis of focal mechanism is about horizontal, near in NE strike, the compressive stress axis is approximately vertical, near in NWW strike. It seems that this quake is controlled by the force of Philippine plate’s pressing Eurasian plate in NW direction. But from the viewpoint of P axis of near vertical and T axis of near horizontal, it is a normal fault of strong tensibility. There are relatively big difference between focal mechanism solution of this quake and those of the four other strong quakes. The complexity of source mechanism solution of these quakes represents the complexity of the process of the strait earthquake sequences. Contribution No. 98A01001, Institute of Geophysics, State Seismological Bureau, China. The subject is supported and helped by Academician Yun-Tai CHEN, Profs. Qing-Yao HONG, Zhen-Xing YAO, Tian-Yu ZHENG, Yao-Lin SHI, Ji-An XU, Bo-Shou HUANG and colleague Mei-Jian AN, Xue-Reng DING, Rui-Feng LIU. De-Chong ZHANG and Ming Li provided the digital data warm-heartedly. Lin-Ying WANG offered us the catalogue of earthquakes in southeastern coastal area in China. Xi-Li WANG and Tong-Xia BAI provided us the issued annual reports data. The authors would like to express their gratitude to all of these people. This paper is sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and Scientific and Technological Commission of Shantou, Guangdong Province.  相似文献   

17.
通过在百年时间域、45°×35°空间域对2001年昆仑山口西8.1级特大地震的孕震过程和中强地震活动图像演化进行时空扫描研究,认为该地震存在清晰的长期、中期、短期和临震几个孕育阶段,给出了各阶段清晰有序的地震活动图像,并找出划分各孕育阶段的标志性地震.同时指出8.1级特大地震的特殊性和预测预报的困难性.  相似文献   

18.
In this study, the spatial distributions of seismicity and seismic hazard were assessed for Turkey and its surrounding area. For this purpose, earthquakes that occurred between 1964 and 2004 with magnitudes of M ≥ 4 were used in the region (30–42°N and 20–45°E). For the estimation of seismicity parameters and its mapping, Turkey and surrounding area are divided into 1,275 circular subregions. The b-value from the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distributions is calculated by the classic way and the new alternative method both using the least-squares approach. The a-value in the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distributions is taken as a constant value in the new alternative method. The b-values calculated by the new method were mapped. These results obtained from both methods are compared. The b-value shows different distributions along Turkey for both techniques. The b-values map prepared with new technique presents a better consistency with regional tectonics, earthquake activities, and epicenter distributions. Finally, the return period and occurrence hazard probability of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes in 75 years were calculated by using the Poisson model for both techniques. The return period and occurrence hazard probability maps determined from both techniques showed a better consistency with each other. Moreover, maps of the occurrence hazard probability and return period showed better consistency with the b-parameter seismicity maps calculated from the new method. The occurrence hazard probability and return period of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes were calculated as 90–99% and 5–10 years, respectively, from the Poisson model in the western part of the studying region.  相似文献   

19.
During a 4-month period starting from 21 January, 1997, an earthquake swarm of seven major events (Ms≥6.0) struck the Jiashi region at the northwestern corner of the Tarim Basin in Xinjiang,, China. Previous relocation studies suggested that these strong earthquakes had occurred along at least two parallel rupture zones. According to the relocated hypocenters and focal mechanisms of the events, we have constructed fault models for these seven earthquakes to calculate the Coulomb stress changes produced by each of these events. Furthermore, we extended our model calculations to include an ad- jacent 1996 Ms=6.9 Artushi earthquake, which occurred one year before the Jiashi earthquake swarm. Our calculations show that the Coulomb stress change caused by the preceding events was around 0.05 MPa at the hypocenter of the 4th event, and higher than 0.08 MPa at the hypocenters of the 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 6th events. Our results reveal a Coulomb stress interactive cycle of earthquake triggering between two adjacent normal and strike-slip faults.  相似文献   

20.
—We present relocations of over 220 historical and recent earthquakes in the northwestern part of Irian Jaya, in the context of the large earthquakes of 1979 and 1996. Our results document continuous activity on a 420-km segment of the Sorong Fault, with a possible extension over an additional 330 km to the west. We also show that some level of activity did take place on the New Guinea Trench prior to the 1996 Biak earthquake, and relocate a large (M PAS = 7.4) event on 02 April 1947 to the trench, at 138°E. We speculate that the large earthquake of 26 May 1914 may also have taken place on the New Guinea Trench. We study the pattern of activity following the 1979 Yapen earthquake, which triggered stress release in the Pandaidori Islands, also the location of stress transfer following the 1996 Biak earthquake.  相似文献   

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