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1.
Previous studies suggest that the atmospheric precursor of El Ni ?no–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere(SH) might trigger a quadrapole sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) in the South Pacific and subsequently influence the following ENSO. Such a quadrapole SSTA is referred to as the South Pacific quadrapole(SPQ).The present study investigated the relationships between the atmospheric precursor signal of ENSO and leading modes of atmospheric variability in the extratropical SH [including the SH annular mode(SAM), the first Pacific–South America(PSA1) mode, and the second Pacific–South America(PSA2) mode]. The results showed that the atmospheric precursor signal in the extratropical SH basically exhibits a barotropic wavenumber-3 structure over the South Pacific and is significantly correlated with the SAM and the PSA2 mode during austral summer. Nevertheless, only the PSA2 mode was found to be a precursor for the following ENSO. It leads the SPQ-like SSTA by around one month, while the SAM and the PSA1 mode do not show any obvious linkage with either ENSO or the SPQ. This suggests that the PSA2 mode may provide a bridge between the preceding circulation anomalies over the extratropical SH and the following ENSO through the SPQ-like SSTA.  相似文献   

2.
The relationships of variations of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the South Pacific with ENSO and Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) are examined in the present article by employing the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis from 1951 to 2006. Two principal modes of South Pacific SSTA are obtained using the EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) analysis for austral winter (June, July and August). Our results suggest that EOF1 is closely related with ENSO and EOF2 links to SAM. The EOF1 varies largely on an interannual and EOF2 on a decadal scale. The time series of coefficients of EOF1 is highly correlated simultaneously with Nino3 index. However, the time series of coefficients of EOF2 is significantly correlated with the March-April-May mean SAM index. Both the EOF1 and EOF2 are found in significant correlation to summer precipitation over China. With higher-than-normal SSTs in the eastern South Pacific and simultaneously lower SSTs in the western South Pacific in June-July-August, the summertime rainfall is found to be less than normal in northern China. As displayed in EOF2 of SSTA, in years with lower-than-normal SSTs in mid-latitude southern and equatorial eastern Pacific and higher-than-normal SSTs in the equatorial middle Pacific in March-April-May, the summer precipitation in August tends to be more than normal in regions south of Yangtze River.  相似文献   

3.
春季北大西洋三极型海温异常变化及其与NAO和ENSO的联系   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
利用1951—2016年HadISST逐月海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)资料,NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及1958—2016年美国伍兹霍尔海洋研究所(Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,WHOI)提供的OAFlux数据集,运用经验正交函数分解(Empirical Orthogonal Function,EOF)和偏相关分析等统计方法,研究了春季北大西洋海温异常的主要特征及其与春季NAO和前期冬季ENSO联系。结果表明:春季北大西洋海温异常EOF的第一模态是自北而南出现的三极结构的海温距平型,其方差贡献率为35.7%。春季北大西洋三极型海温异常的形成主要受到春季NAO主导作用,还受到前期冬季热带中东太平洋海温异常的影响。消除前期冬季Niňo3.4的影响后,春季北大西洋三极型海温异常指数与同期北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation,NAO)指数的偏相关系数分别为0.50,通过了99%置信度水平的显著性检验。消除春季NAO的影响后,春季北大西洋三极型海温异常指数与前期冬季Niňo3.4指数的偏相关系数为-0.26,通过了95%信度水平的显著性检验。春季NAO正(负)位相引起的海表风场和海表湍流热通量的异常,进而激发出正(负)位相的北大西洋三极型海温异常。前期冬季ENSO事件可以引起春季大气环流异常和热带外海温异常,进而调制春季NAO对北大西洋三极型海温异常的影响。  相似文献   

4.
The seasonal footprinting mechanism (SFM) is thought to be a pre-cursor to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Fluctuations in the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) impact the ocean via surface heat fluxes during winter, leaving a sea-surface temperature (SST) “footprint” in the subtropics. This footprint persists through the spring, impacting the tropical Pacific atmosphere–ocean circulation throughout the following year. The simulation of the SFM in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) is likely to have an impact on operational predictions of ENSO and potentially seasonal predictions in the United States associated with ENSO teleconnection patterns. The ability of the CFSv2 to simulate the SFM and the relationship between the SFM and ENSO prediction skill in the NCEP/CFSv2 are investigated. Results indicate that the CFSv2 is able to simulate the basic characteristics of the SFM and its relationship with ENSO, including extratropical sea level pressure anomalies associated with the NPO in the winter, corresponding wind and SST anomalies that impact the tropics, and the development of ENSO-related SST anomalies the following winter. Although the model is able to predict the correct sign of ENSO associated with the SFM in a composite sense, probabilistic predictions of ENSO following a positive or negative NPO event are generally less reliable than when the NPO is not active.  相似文献   

5.
Observational and reanalysis data are used to investigate the different relationships between boreal spring sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian and Pacific oceans and summer precipitation in China. Partial correlation analysis reveals that the effects of spring Indian Ocean SST (IO SST) and Pacific SST (PSST) anomalies on summer precipitation in China are qualitatively opposite. When IO SST anomalies are considered independently of PSST anomalies, precipitation decreases south of the Yangtze River, in most areas of Inner Mongolia, and in some parts of Liaoning Province, and increases in the Yangtze River valley, parts of southwestern and northern China, northeastern Inner Mongolia, and Heilongjiang Province. This results in a negative-positive-negative-positive pattern of precipitation anomalies in China from south to north. When PSST anomalies (particularly those in the Nin o3.4 region) are considered independently of IO SST anomalies, the pattern of precipitation anomalies in China is positive-negative-positive-negative from south to north. The genesis of summer precipitation anomalies in China is also examined when El Nin o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals are removed from the ocean and atmosphere. An anticyclonic low-level wind anomaly forms in the South China Sea-Northwest Pacific area when the IO SST anomaly (SSTA) is warm and the Northwest Pacific SSTA is cold. This anticyclonic anomaly substantially influences summer precipitation in China. Anomalous warming of tropical IO SST induces positive geopotential height anomalies in the subtropics and an east-west dipole pattern in midlatitudes over Asia. These anomalies also affect summer precipitation in China.  相似文献   

6.
海温异常对台风形成的影响   总被引:13,自引:0,他引:13  
吴国雄 《大气科学》1992,16(3):322-332
本文利用地球流体力学实验室(GFDL)的低分辨气候模式进行数值试验,以研究海温异常对台风形成的影响.试验采用恒定8月气候条件和海表温度(SST).海温异常(SSTA)被置于北太平洋不同区域.结果表明,台风生成频率在暖SSTA区明显增加.这是由于暖SSTA区低层辐合的增强一方面使低空气旋式环流和高空反气旋式环流加大,另一方面导致低层水汽向该区辐合,使潜热释放加强,对流加剧所致.此一机制被用于解释台风频率和ENSO事件的相关.在冷ENSO年份,西北和西南太平洋台风增多不仅是由于赤道东太平洋SST异常冷,还与西太平洋SST异常暖有关.  相似文献   

7.
The NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) provides important source of information about the seasonal prediction of climate over the Indo-Pacific oceans. In this study, the authors provide a comprehensive assessment of the prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Indian Ocean (IO). They also investigate the impact of tropical IO SST on the summer anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific (WNPAC), focusing on the relative contributions of local SST and remote forcing of tropical IO SST to WNPAC variations. The CFSv2 captures the two most dominant modes of summer tropical IO SST: the IO basin warming (IOBW) mode and the IO dipole (IOD) mode, as well as their relationship with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, it produces a cold SST bias in IO, which may be attributed to deeper-than-observed mixed layer and smaller-than-observed total downward heat flux in the tropical IO. It also overestimates the correlations of ENSO with IOBW and IOD, but underestimates the magnitude of IOD and summer IOBW. The CFSv2 captures the climate anomalies related to IOBW but not those related to IOD. It depicts the impact of summer IOBW on WNPAC via the equatorial Kelvin wave, which contributes to the maintenance of WNPAC in July and August. The WNPAC in June is mostly forced by local cold SST, which is better predicted by the CFSv2 compared to July and August. The mechanism for WNPAC maintenance may vary with lead time in the CFSv2.  相似文献   

8.
利用逐月台站观测降水、HadISST1.1海温和ERA5大气再分析资料,研究了前冬印度洋海盆一致模(Indian Ocean Basin,IOB)对华南春季降水(SCSR)与ENSO关系的影响,并分析了IOB通过调控ENSO环流异常进而影响SCSR的可能机制。结果表明:当前冬El Ni?o(La Ni?a)与IOB暖(冷)位相同时发生时,SCSR显著增多(减少);而当El Ni?o或La Ni?a单独发生而IOB处于中性时,SCSR并无明显多寡倾向。其原因在于,当El Ni?o与IOB暖相位并存时,前冬热带印度洋和赤道中东太平洋均为正海温异常(Sea-Surface Temperature Anomaly,SSTA),且印度洋SSTA强度可一直维持至春季。在对流层低层,春季赤道中东太平洋的正SSTA激发出异常西北太平洋反气旋(Western North Pacific Anticyclone,WNPAC)。而热带印度洋的正SSTA在副热带印度洋激发出赤道南北反对称环流,赤道以北的东风异常有利于异常WNPAC西伸;赤道以南的西风异常与来自赤道西太平洋的东风异常在东印度洋辐合上升,气流至西北太平洋下沉,形成经向垂直环流,有利于春季WNPAC维持。在对流层高层,印度洋的正SSTA在热带印度洋上空激发出位势高度正异常,随之形成的气压经向梯度加强了东亚高空副热带西风急流,进而在华南上空形成异常辐散环流。WNPAC的西伸和加强可为华南提供充足的水汽,同时高空辐散在华南引发水汽上升运动,共同导致SCSR正异常。而若El Ni?o发生时IOB处于中性状态,El Ni?o相关的SSTA衰减较快,春季WNPAC不显著,SCSR无明显多寡趋势。   相似文献   

9.
殷永红  倪允琪 《气象学报》2001,59(4):459-471
采用 NCEP/NCAR的 1 979~ 1 998年逐月平均的海表温度及 1 0 0 0 h Pa风场资料 ,进行滤波和均方差计算 ,得到了热带太平洋、印度洋、大西洋海表温度 (SST)和风场的年际变化特征。用旋转主分量 (RPC)方法和投影法对热带三大洋海表温度距平 (SSTA)进行分析 ,得到了各大洋 SSTA演变的主要时空特征和相应的距平风场特征 ;并用相关分析研究热带三大洋与ENSO相关的特征 ,得到三大洋间的同期相关关系为 :印度洋 SSTA与赤道东太平洋 SSTA成正相关 ,而赤道东大西洋 SSTA与赤道东太平洋 SSTA成弱的负相关 ;赤道印度洋在落后于赤道东太平洋 3个月左右时正相关达到最大 ,赤道大西洋在超前于赤道东太平洋 6个月左右时负相关达到最大 ;热带印度洋和大西洋与 ENSO相关的分量对各自大洋海表温度年际变化的方差贡献数值相近 ,最大在 40 %以上 ,平均解释方差分别为 1 4%和 1 2 %。  相似文献   

10.
There is increasing evidence of the possible role of extratropical forcing in the evolution of ENSO.The Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode(SAM) is the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics.This study shows that the austral summer(December–January–February; DJF) SAM may also influence the amplitude of ENSO decay during austral autumn(March–April–May;MAM).The mechanisms associated with this SAM–ENSO relationship can be briefly summarized as follows:The SAM is positively(negatively) correlated with SST in the Southern Hemisphere middle(high) latitudes.This dipole-like SST anomaly pattern is referred to as the Southern Ocean Dipole(SOD).The DJF SOD,caused by the DJF SAM,could persist until MAM and then influence atmospheric circulation,including trade winds,over the Nio3.4 area.Anomalous trade winds and SST anomalies over the Nio3.4 area related to the DJF SAM are further developed through the Bjerkness feedback,which eventually results in a cooling(warming) over the Nio3.4 area followed by the positive(negative) DJF SAM.  相似文献   

11.
Using an output from 200-year integration of the Scale Interaction Experiment of EU project-F1 model (SINTEX-F1), the annual ENSO reproduced in the coupled general circulation model is investigated, suggesting the importance of reproducing an annual cycle in realistically simulating ENSO events. Although many features of the annual ENSO are reproduced, the northward expansion of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the eastern tropical Pacific stays south of the equator. It is suggested that this model bias is due to the excitation of the too strong Rossby waves in the southeastern tropical Pacific, which reflect at the western boundary and intrude into the eastern equatorial Pacific. The zonal wind stress anomaly along the equator also plays an important role in generating the equatorial Kelvin waves. The amplitude of SSTA for the annual ENSO mode is reproduced, but its variance is only 20% of the observation; this is again due to the lack of northward migration of seasonal SSTA in the equatorial region and weaker coastal Kelvin waves along South America. Remedies for the model bias are discussed.  相似文献   

12.
This work evaluates the skill of retrospective predictions of the second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) for the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and investigates the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the prediction skill over this region. It is shown that the CFSv2 prediction skill with 0–8 month lead displays a “tripole”-like pattern with areas of higher skills in the high latitude and tropical North Atlantic, surrounding the area of lower skills in the mid-latitude western North Atlantic. This “tripole”-like prediction skill pattern is mainly due to the persistency of SST anomalies (SSTAs), which is related to the influence of ENSO and NAO over the North Atlantic. The influences of ENSO and NAO, and their seasonality, result in the prediction skill in the tropical North Atlantic the highest in spring and the lowest in summer. In CFSv2, the ENSO influence over the North Atlantic is overestimated but the impact of NAO over the North Atlantic is not well simulated. However, compared with CFSv1, the overall skills of CFSv2 are slightly higher over the whole North Atlantic, particularly in the high latitudes and the northwest North Atlantic. The model prediction skill beyond the persistency initially presents in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic and extends to the low latitudes with time. That might suggest that the model captures the associated air-sea interaction in the North Atlantic. The CFSv2 prediction is less skillful than that of SSTA persistency in the high latitudes, implying that over this region the persistency is even better than CFSv2 predictions. Also, both persistent and CFSv2 predictions have relatively low skills along the Gulf Stream.  相似文献   

13.
The present study examines the relationship between two types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the central Pacific (CP) ENSO and the eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO, and the sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the South Pacific (SP) (20° S–60° S, 145° E–70° W) using NOAA OI SST for the period 1982–2006. The SP SST variability associated with the two types of ENSO varies with season. These two types of ENSO can excite different atmospheric patterns associated with the Pacific–South American mode, through which they influence the SP SST variability. Both the surface turbulent air–sea heat fluxes and the heat advection by Ekman currents (i.e., Ekman heat fluxes) have an important impact on the SST variability. An analysis of the surface mixed layer heat budget indicates that the heat fluxes (the sum of turbulent heat fluxes and Ekman heat fluxes) can effectively explain much of the SST variability related to the two types of ENSO.  相似文献   

14.
钱代丽  管兆勇 《气象学报》2019,77(3):442-455
使用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、哈得来海表温度和中国国家气候中心的西太平洋副热带高压(西太副高)特征指数,对比分析了ENSO背景下的夏季印度洋海盆尺度模(Indian Ocean basin mode,IOBM)与独立于ENSO的纯IOBM(pure Indian Ocean basin mode,IOBM_P)对西太副高的影响机理。结果表明,滤除前期ENSO信号后,西北太平洋上为海温负距平,并在其西北侧强迫出Gill型反气旋。另外,印度洋与海洋性大陆间存在西高东低的海温距平梯度,印度洋正、负海温距平激发出的赤道开尔文波影响至海洋性大陆西部地区,强迫出的异常大气环流关于赤道基本对称。加之此时中国南海至西北太平洋地区降水偏弱,潜热释放偏少,从而非绝热冷却,导致西太副高异常偏强、偏南。而在前期厄尔尼诺的影响下,次年夏季印度洋与海洋性大陆地区均有利于出现海温正距平,开尔文波的影响偏强、偏东,强迫出的异常环流偏向北半球,通过“埃克曼抽吸”和非绝热冷却在对流层低层制造出异常负涡度进而影响西太副高,使其明显偏强、偏西、偏南。由于IOBM_P在2和8年周期上对西太副高的影响最明显,而ENSO信号中主要是3—7 a的短周期振荡,因此,ENSO背景下的印度洋变暖对西太副高的遥强迫实际包含了来自热带中太平洋的3—7 a周期信号的滞后影响和印度洋地区局地变化特别是2和8年周期变化的作用。这些结果为人们深入理解西太副高变化规律和做出有效预报提供了线索。   相似文献   

15.
Utilizing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly datasets,and based on the filter and standard deviation calculation,the interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) and 1000 hPa wind field for the tropical Pacific,Indian and Atlantic Oceans is investigated for the past 20 years (1979-1998).The characters of space-time evolution in SST anomalies (SSTA) for each ocean and corresponding wind anomaly field are acquired by using rotated principal component (RPC) and linear regression analysis methods.Using the method of correlation analysis.the characters of three tropical oceans correlated with ENSO are investigated.The contemporary correlation between the SSTA in the Indian Ocean and in the equatorial eastern Pacific is positive,and there is a weak negative correlation between the SSTA in the equatorial east Atlantic Ocean and in the equatorial eastern Pacific.The lead-lag correlation analysis indicates that the SSTA in the equatorial Indian Ocean lags the dominant Pacific ENSO mode by 3 months,and the SSTA in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean leads ENSO mode by 6 months.The ENSO-correlated components in tropical Indian Ocean and tropical Atlantic Ocean display much the same amount of total variance in each ocean,i.e..14% in the Indian Ocean and 12% in the Atlantic Ocean and the maximums are all above 40%.  相似文献   

16.
The impact of surface sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau(SHTP) on the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)with and without air–sea interaction was investigated in this study. Data analysis indicated that SHTP acts as a relatively independent factor in modulating the WPSH anomaly compared with ENSO events. Stronger spring SHTP is usually followed by an enhanced and westward extension of the WPSH in summer, and vice versa. Numerical experiments using both an AGCM and a CGCM confirmed that SHTP influences the large-scale circulation anomaly over the Pacific, which features a barotropic anticyclonic response over the northwestern Pacific and a cyclonic response to the south. Owing to different background circulation in spring and summer, such a response facilitates a subdued WPSH in spring but an enhanced WPSH in summer. Moreover, the CGCM results showed that the equatorial low-level westerly at the south edge of the cyclonic anomaly brings about a warm SST anomaly(SSTA) in the equatorial central Pacific via surface warm advection.Subsequently, an atmospheric Rossby wave is stimulated to the northwest of the warm SSTA, which in turn enhances the atmospheric dipole anomalies over the western Pacific. Therefore, the air–sea feedbacks involved tend to reinforce the effect of SHTP on the WPSH anomaly, and the role of SHTP on general circulation needs to be considered in a land–air–sea interaction framework.  相似文献   

17.
利用HadiSST资料、CMAP降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了热带北大西洋(Northern Tropical Atlantic,NTA)海表温度异常(Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly,SSTA)与南海夏季风(South China Sea Summer Monsoon,SCSSM)的联系及可能机制。观测分析表明,夏季NTA海温异常与SCSSM存在显著的负相关关系;NTA海温正异常时,北半球副热带东太平洋至大西洋区域存在气旋式环流异常,有利于热带大西洋(热带中太平洋)地区产生异常上升(下沉)运动,使得西北太平洋地区出现反气旋环流异常,该反气旋环流异常西侧的南风异常使得SCSSM增强。利用春季NTA指数、东南印度洋海温异常指数、北太平洋海温异常指数、南太平洋经向模(South Pacific Ocean Meridional Dipole,SPOMD)及Niňo3.4指数构建了SCSSM季节预测模型,预测模型后报与观测的SCSSM指数的相关系数为0.81,表明该模型可较好预测SCSSM。  相似文献   

18.
利用1979—2019年Hadley中心的海表温度资料、GPCP的降水资料以及NCEP-DOE的再分析资料等,分析了北半球春季热带南大西洋海表温度异常与北半球夏季亚澳季风区降水异常的联系。研究表明,北半球春季热带南大西洋海表温度异常与随后夏季热带西太平洋到南海(澳大利亚东侧海域到热带东印度洋)地区的降水异常为显著负相关(正相关)关系。北半球春季热带南大西洋的海表温度正异常可以引起热带大西洋和热带太平洋间的异常垂直环流,其中异常上升支(下沉支)位于热带大西洋(热带中太平洋)。热带中太平洋的异常下沉气流和低层辐散气流引起热带中西太平洋低层的异常东风,后者有利于热带中东太平洋海表温度出现负异常。通过Bjerknes正反馈机制,热带中东太平洋海表温度异常从北半球春季到夏季得到发展。热带中东太平洋海表温度负异常激发的Rossby波使得北半球夏季热带西太平洋低层出现一对异常反气旋。此时,850 hPa上热带西太平洋到海洋性大陆地区为显著的异常东风,有利于热带西太平洋到南海(澳大利亚东侧海域到热带东印度洋)地区出现异常的水汽辐散(辐合),导致该地区降水减少(增加)。  相似文献   

19.
Anomalous patterns of the atmospheric circulation and climate are studied corresponding to the two basic interdecadal variation modes of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific, namely, the 25-35-year mode and the 7-10-year mode. Results clearly indicate that corresponding to the positive and negative phases of the interdecadal modes of SST anomaly (SSTA) in the North Pacific, the anomalous patterns of the atmospheric circulation and climate are approximately out of phase, fully illustrating the important role of the interdecadal modes of SST. Since the two interdecadal modes of SSTA in the North Pacific have similar horizontal structures, their impacts on the atmospheric circulation and climate are also analogous. The impact of the interdecadal modes of the North Pacific SST on the atmospheric circulation is barotropic at middle latitudes and baroclinic in tropical regions.  相似文献   

20.
Increased evidence has shown the important role of Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) in modulating the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Persistent anomalies of summer Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) act to link the Atlantic SST anomalies (SSTAs) to ENSO. The Atlantic SSTAs are strongly correlated with the persistent anomalies of summer MJO, and possibly affect MJO in two major ways. One is that an anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation appears over the tropical Atlantic Ocean associated with positive (negative) SSTA in spring, and it intensifies (weakens) the Walker circulation. Equatorial updraft anomaly then appears over the Indian Ocean and the eastern Pacific Ocean, intensifying MJO activity over these regions. The other involves a high pressure (low pressure) anomaly associated with the North Atlantic SSTA tripole pattern that is transmitted to the mid- and low-latitudes by a circumglobal teleconnection pattern, leading to strong (weak) convective activity of MJO over the Indian Ocean. The above results offer new viewpoints about the process from springtime Atlantic SSTA signals to summertime atmospheric oscillation, and then to the MJO of tropical atmosphere affecting wintertime Pacific ENSO events, which connects different oceans.  相似文献   

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