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1.
This study identifies favorable synoptic backgrounds for indirect precipitation events over the Korean Peninsula that occur well in advance of tropical cyclone (TC) landfall. Two TCs, i.e., Rammasun (2002) and Maemi (2003) that made landfall and produced heavy rainfall over the Peninsula are compared. Although both had a remarkably similar accumulated rainfall pattern over the peninsula, the temporal evolutions of hourly rainfall were different. Only Maemi had an indirect precipitation event in conjunction with a midlatitude trough to its north. The confluent flows at middle-to-upper levels were strengthened due to the increased pressure gradient between the midlatitude trough and the subtropical high, and the warm advection by the confluent flows also became stronger near the confluent zone. By contrast, Rammasun encountered the subtropical ridge while moving northward, which results in slow recurvature and reduction of the thermal gradient over the peninsula. The highly baroclinic synoptic backgrounds in the Maemi case lead to the midlevel frontogenesis. Budget analyses using the three-dimensional frontogenesis equation revealed that the horizontal deformation forcing had a primary role in generating the front. The front was associated with a thermally direct circulation that contributed to strong ascent and indirect precipitation over the peninsula well in advance of the landfall of Maemi. Moreover, the indirect precipitation could intensify due to the abundant low-level moisture supply to the frontal zone by the southerly wind on the east side of the TC.  相似文献   

2.
Summary A numerical model is employed to study heavy rainfall events in complex terrain. The model uses a limited-fine-mesh grid and a nested grid, but does not utilize the same set of equations on both grids. Two similar, heavy rainfall cases are contrasted with each other and with a moderate precipitation case. Sensitivity experiments illustrate the effects of topography, synoptic forcing and diabatic heating on these episodes. Model results indicate that heavy rainfall in complex terrain requires a suitable superposition of mass, momentum and moisture fields in relation to the topography. It is the mass and momentum fields, however, which primarily control the location of heaviest precipitation. Synoptically similar events may be different in their underlying causes. The diabatic heating distribution may in some cases be essential to creating such episodes heavy rain.With 22 Figures  相似文献   

3.
In this study, we examine the deterministic predictability of heavy rainfall over the Korean peninsula using a global model, the Global/Regional Integrated Model system, by focusing on the effects of horizontal resolution and lead time prior to the onset of the target event. The control run reproduces locally concentrated heavy rainfall over the mid-western part of the Korean peninsula on 27–29 July 2011, with a model setup of about 25 km grid spacing and 24 h in advance of the onset of heavy rainfall. We found that small-scale features are represented well at higher resolution, but without significant change in the distribution of rainfall. Increase of lead time reduces the predictability of large-scale features, accompanying a northward shift of major rainfall. At lower resolution, the accuracy of the heavy rainfall prediction decreases more rapidly as lead time increases. We concluded that the increase in predictability of heavy rainfall achieved by enhancing horizontal resolution is promising, but an additional set of experiments also indicates that efforts should be made to improve the physics packages in models.  相似文献   

4.
Raingauge data from four meteorological stations in Chalkidiki peninsula (Greece) were used to identify the characteristics of the synoptic circulation patterns associated with cold-season heavy rainfall events and corresponding flooding over the area. Precipitation climatology over the complex topography of Chalkidiki is characterized by limited annual rainfall, but in the occurrence of heavy rainfall episodes daily accumulations are exceptionally high with increased precipitation rates, leading often to severe flooding. Fifty-five cases of high daily accumulations for the period of 1997 to 2010, mostly observed during December and October, were classified into eight clusters by applying S-Mode Factor Analysis and Cluster Analysis to the ERA-Interim grid point reanalysis data. The results revealed that, in most cases, intense rainfall and flooding is produced by synoptic scale disturbances that generate and sustain cyclonic activity over south Italy, the Ionian, and less frequently over the Aegean Sea. In particular, the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with heavy rainfall are characterized by the presence of a southeasterly–easterly low-level humid flow over Chalkidiki in conjunction with the potentially unstable lower troposphere influenced by mid-level cyclonic vorticity advection and enhanced low-level convergence over the complex terrain.  相似文献   

5.
This study examines the ability of the cloud-resolving weather research and forecasting (WRF) model to reproduce the convective cells associated with the flash-flooding heavy rainfall near Seoul, South Korea, on 12 July 2006. A triply nested WRF model with the highest resolution of 3-km horizontal grid spacing was integrated with conventional analysis data. The WRF model simulated the initiation of isolated thunderstorms, and the formation of a convective band, cloud cluster, and squall line at nearly the right time. The corresponding precipitation simulation was also reasonably reproduced in its distribution, although the amount was underestimated. A sensitivity experiment that excludes the orography over the peninsula revealed that orographic forcing over the peninsula is responsible for about 20% increase in precipitation over the heavy rainfall region. It was identified that in addition to the up-lifting local orographic forcing to the west of the mountain range in South Korea, anticyclonic circulation due to the presence of the Gaema Heights in North Korea contribute to the confinement of convective activities in the heavy rainfall region.  相似文献   

6.
An investigation has been carried out using observational data and a numerical model to explain the formation and development of heavy precipitation systems on September 21, 2010. These systems were responsible for heavy rainfall over the middle Korean peninsula, with a maximum 24-h rainfall amount greater than 290 mm in the Seoul metropolitan area. Both observational analysis and a numerical simulation indicate that an important starting condition for this heavy rainfall event is the presence of a pressure trough over the Shandong peninsula and the Yellow Sea. Convective cells formed in the early morning over this trough area, grew into larger systems as they moved eastward, and induced the formation of a meso low over the Yellow Sea around 0000 UTC on September 21, 2010. A stationary front with significant vertical circulation developed in response to the deformation of flow associated with the meso low. In the meantime, multicell-type convective systems continuously developed and moved along the front. These storms developed further and produced heavy rainfall over the middle Korean peninsula, which includes the Seoul metropolitan area. According to observations, the band structure appeared to change after 0700 UTC as a narrow convection band developed over the sea, upstream of the existing band of multicell storms. Numerical simulation showed a similar transition. However, it failed to reproduce the stationary behavior of the observed band.  相似文献   

7.
The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 3 (MM5V3) was used to simulate extreme heavy rainfall events over the Yangtze River Basin in June 1999. The effects of model's horizontal and vertical resolution on the extreme climate events were investigated in detail. In principle, the model was able to characterize the spatial distribution of monthly heavy precipitation. The results indicated that the increase in horizontal resolution could reduce the bias of the modeled heavy rain and reasonably simulate the change of daily precipitation during the study period. A finer vertical resolution led to obviously improve rainfall simulations with smaller biases, and hence, better resolve heavy rainfall events. The increase in both horizontal and vertical resolution could produce better predictions of heavy rainfall events. Not only the rainfall simulation altered in the cases of different horizontal and vertical grid spacing, but also other meteorological fields demonstrated diverse variations in terms of resolution change in the model. An evident improvement in the simulated sea level pressure resulted from the increase of horizontal resolution, but the simulation was insensitive to vertical grid spacing. The increase in vertical resolution could enhance the simulation of surface temperature as well as atmospheric circulation at low levels, while the simulation of circulation at middle and upper levels were found to be much less dependent on changing resolution. In addition, cumulus parameterization schemes showed high sensitivity to horizontal resolution. Different convective schemes exhibited large discrepancies in rainfall simulations with regards to changing resolution. The percentage of convective precipitation in the Grell scheme increased with increasing horizontal resolution. In contrast, the Kain-Fritsch scheme caused a reduced ratio of convective precipitation to total rainfall accumulations corresponding to increasing horizontal resolution.  相似文献   

8.
As a step towards the adoption and use of the regional climate model (RegCM3) for the simulation of intense rainfall events over the Arabian Peninsula, this study examines its sensitivity to domain size, boundary location, forcing fields, and resolution. In the climatological results, RegCM3 performs well in reproducing the annual and the seasonal mean precipitation as well as the contrast between wet and dry years in terms of the amounts and locations of the rainbands. In addition, simulations are performed for two cases of intense rainfall events in the Jeddah area and surroundings using a combination of three domains and two boundary forcings at 50?km. The results show that different combinations of these parameters provide different skills for the regional model. However, RegCM3 performs relatively better when ERA40 (NNRP2) is used at the boundaries in the smaller domain (larger domain), indicating the importance of the stronger (relatively weaker) influence of boundary forcing needed to capture these intense rainfall events around Jeddah. This may be explained by the fact that around that region, RegCM3 produces, in the smaller domain, higher relative humidity and stronger wind vectors closer to the reanalyses when nested within the ERA40, while it shows its best performance with the larger domain when driven by NNRP2. It is also shown that the use of high resolution does not systematically improve the simulation of such events, although some encouraging results were produced.  相似文献   

9.
In this study, the accuracy of a Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model (PSU/NCAR MM5) for predicting heavy summer precipitation over the Korean Peninsula was investigated. A total of 1800 simulations were performed using this model for 30 heavy rainfall events employing four cumulus parameterization schemes (CPS), two grid-scale resolvable precipitation schemes (GRS), and two planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in three model resolutions (90 km, 30 km, and 10 km). The heavy rainfall events were mesoscale convective systems developed under the influence of mid-latitude baroclinic systems with low-level moisture transport from the ocean. The predictive accuracy for maximum rainfall was approximately 80% for 10-km resolution and was 60% for 30-km resolution. The predictive accuracy for rainfall position extended to ～150 km from the observed position for both resolutions. Simulated rainfall was most sensitive to CPS, then to PBL schemes, and then to GRS. In general, the Grell (GR) scheme and the Anthes and Kuo (AK) scheme showed a better prediction capability for heavy rainfall than did the Betts-Miller (BM) scheme and the Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme. The GR scheme also performed well in the 24-h and 12-h precipitation predictions: the parameterized convective rainfall in GR is directly related to synoptic-scale forcing. The models without CPS performed better for rainfall amounts but worse for rainfall position than those with CPS. The MM5 model demonstrated substantial predictive capacity using synoptic-scale initial conditions and lateral boundary data because heavy summer rainfall in Korea occurs in a strong synoptic-scale environment.  相似文献   

10.
This study is essentially an experiment on the control experiment in the August 1975 catastrophe which was the heaviest rainfall in mainland China with a maximum 24-h rainfall of 1060.3 mm, and it significantly demonstrates that the limited area model can still skillfully give reasonable results even only the conventional data are available. For such a heavy rainfall event, a grid length of 90 km is too large while 45 km seems acceptable. Under these two grid sizes, the cumulus parameterization scheme is evidently superior to the explicit scheme since it restricts instabili-ties such as CISK to limited extent, The high resolution scheme for the boundary treatment does not improve fore-casts significantly.The experiments also revealed some interesting phenomena such as the forecast rainfall being too small while af-fecting synoptic system so deep as compared with observations. Another example is the severe deformation of synoptic systems both in initial conditions and forecast fields in the presence of complicated topography. Besides, the fixed boundary condition utilized in the experiments along with current domain coverage set some limitations to the model performances.  相似文献   

11.
We present an analysis of a high resolution multi-decadal simulation of recent climate (1971–2000) over the Korean Peninsula with a regional climate model (RegCM3) using a one-way double-nested system. Mean climate state as well as frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales, with focus on surface air temperature and precipitation. The mother intermediate resolution model domain encompasses the eastern regions of Asia at 60 km grid spacing while the high resolution nested domain covers the Korean Peninsula at 20 km grid spacing. The simulation spans the 30-year period of January 1971 through December 2000, and initial and lateral boundary conditions for the mother domain are provided from ECHO-G fields based on the IPCC SRES B2 scenario. The model shows a good performance in reproducing the climatological and regional characteristics of surface variables, although some persistent biases are present. Main results are as follows: (1) The RegCM3 successfully simulates the fine-scale structure of the temperature field due to topographic forcing but it shows a systematic cold bias mostly due to an underestimate of maximum temperature. (2) The frequency distribution of simulated daily mean temperature agrees well with the observed seasonal and spatial patterns. In the summer season, however, daily variability is underestimated. (3) The RegCM3 simulation adequately captures the seasonal evolution of precipitation associated to the East Asia monsoon. In particular, the simulated winter precipitation is remarkably good, clearly showing typical precipitation patterns that occur on the northwestern areas of Japan during the winter monsoon. Although summer precipitation is underestimated, area-averaged time series of precipitation over Korea show that the RegCM3 agrees better with observations than ECHO-G both in terms of seasonal evolution and precipitation amounts. (4) Heavy rainfall phenomena exceeding 300 mm/day are simulated only at the high resolution of the double nested domain. (5) The model shows a tendency to overestimate the number of precipitation days and to underestimate the precipitation intensities. (6) A CSEOF analysis reveals that the model captures the strength of the annual cycle and the surface warming trend throughout the simulated period.  相似文献   

12.
采用中尺度数值模式MM5V2对1998年6月下旬发生在长江流域持续的暴雨过程进行分析研究。通过尺度分离与数值模拟对比试验，着重分析了暴雨过程中天气尺度与次天气尺度各物理量场的结构特征，提出本次暴雨过程形成的物理机制:天气尺度流场与水汽场为降水提供持续的远距离水汽输送通道，次天气尺度流场形成稳定的经向强辐合，为水汽的抬升与凝结提供动力条件；在有利的高、低空急流的配置下，暴雨区落在高空急流轴以南、低空急流轴以北；次天气尺度温度场下暖上冷的热力不稳定层结促进了热力不稳定的发展，促使暴雨增幅；特大暴雨发生地区上空的次天气尺度湿度的高值中心，有利于湿空气在上升运动中释放潜热，形成暴雨的反馈机制。数值试验分离模式初始场不同尺度系统信息，揭示了不同尺度系统在暴雨发生过程中的动力作用，没有中尺度系统的配合，仅有天气尺度系统信息，或只有次天气尺度系统信息，没有大尺度系统的配合，暴雨的强度及范围都将有所消减。分析及数值试验结果表明大暴雨是在天气尺度和次天气尺度系统的共同作用下才得以产生和维持的。  相似文献   

13.
To examine the correlation between the sizes of sea breeze fronts and pollutants under the influence of synoptic fields, a numerical simulation was conducted in the southeast coastal area of the Korean Peninsula, where relatively high concentrations of pollutants occur because of the presence of various kinds of industrial developments. Sea breeze and sea breeze front days during the period 2005-09 were identified using wind profiler data and, according to the results, the number of days were 72 and 53, respectively. When synoptic forcing was weak, sea breeze fronts moved fast both in horizontal fields and in terms of wind velocity, while in the case of strong synoptic forcing, sea breeze fronts remained at the coast or moved slowly due to strong opposing flows. In this case, the sea breeze front development function and horizontal potential temperature difference were larger than with weak synoptic forcing. The ozone concentration that moves together with sea breeze fronts was also formed along the frontal surfaces. Ozone advection and diffusion in the case of strong synoptic forcing was suppressed at the frontal surface and the concentration gradient was large. The vertical distribution of ozone was very low due to the Thermal Internal Boundary Layer (TIBL) being low.  相似文献   

14.
An unusual heavy coastal rainfall event (>231?mm?day?1) occurred during the period of 24?C25 June 1987 over the lowland (elevation less than 200?m) and coastal areas in northwest and central Taiwan. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to investigate the role of synoptic forcing, orographic effects and the diurnal heating cycle on the generation of a prefrontal localized low-level convergence zone offshore leading to the observed coastal rainfall maximum. This case is well simulated by the control experiment initialized at 0000 UTC (0800 LST) 24 June 1987 using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts data. A model sensitivity test without Taiwan??s terrain fails to reproduce the observed coastal rainfall maximum. It is apparent that for this case, synoptic forcing by the Mei-Yu jet/front system is inadequate to initiate deep convection leading to the development of coastal heavy precipitation. The generation of the localized low-level convergence zone is closely related to the simulated strong winds with a large southwesterly wind component (or the barrier jet) along the northwestern coast as the surface front approaches. The development of the simulated barrier jet is due to a 50?C60% increase in the meridional pressure gradient as a result of orographic blocking. The diurnal heating cycle also impacts the strength of the simulated barrier jet over the northwestern Taiwan coast. The simulated barrier jet is stronger (~3?m?s?1) in the early morning than in the afternoon as orographic blocking is most significant when the surface air is the coldest. The representation of the terrain in the model impacts the simulated barrier jet and rainfall. With a coarse horizontal resolution (45?km), orographic blocking is less significant than the control run with a much weaker meridional wind component over the northwestern coast of Taiwan. The coarse resolution model fails to reproduce the observed rainband off the northwestern coast. Thus, to successfully simulate this type of event, high-resolution mesoscale models adequately depicting Taiwan??s terrain are required.  相似文献   

15.
In order to systematically and visually understand well-known but qualitative and complex relationships between synoptic fields and heavy rainfall events in Kyushu Islands, southwestern Japan, during the BAIU season, these synoptic fields were classified using the Self-Organizing Map (SOM), which can convert complex non-linear features into simple two-dimensional relationships. It was assumed that the synoptic field patterns could be simply expressed by the spatial distribution of (1) wind components at the 850 hPa level and (2) precipitable water (PW) defined by the water vapor amount contained in a vertical column of the atmosphere. By the SOM algorithm and the clustering techniques of the U-matrix and the K-means, the synoptic fields could be divided into eight kinds of patterns (clusters). One of the clusters has the notable spatial features represented by a large PW content accompanied by strong wind components known as low-level jet (LLJ). The features of this cluster indicate a typical synoptic field pattern that frequently causes heavy rainfall in Kyushu during the rainy season.In addition, an independent data set was used for validating the performance of the trained SOM. The results indicated that the SOM could successfully extract heavy rainfall events related to typical synoptic field patterns of the BAIU season. Interestingly, one specific SOM unit was closely related to the occurrence of disastrous heavy rainfall events observed during both training and validation periods. From these results, the trained SOM showed good performance for identifying synoptic fields causing heavy rainfall also in the validation period. We conclude that the SOM technique may be an effective tool for classifying complicated non-linear synoptic fields and identifying heavy rainfall events to some degree.  相似文献   

16.
天气预报的业务技术进展   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文
该文总结回顾了中央气象台近年来的天气预报业务技术进展。天气预报质量的历史演变显示了预报业务水平的提高, 这种业务能力的提高既反映了预报技术的发展, 也带来了天气预报业务的变化。对业务天气预报中各种预报技术应用进展的分析表明:数值预报在天气预报业务能力提高中发挥着重要的基础性作用; 同时, 基于对不同尺度天气影响系统发展演变过程深入认识的基础上, 天气学的预报方法依然是预报业务中的重要技术方法; 动力诊断预报已成为灾害性天气预报中的重要手段之一, 数值预报产品的解释应用是实现气象要素精细定量预报的技术途径。  相似文献   

17.
Summary This study investigates the capability of the regional climate model RegCM3 to simulate surface air temperature and precipitation over the Korean Peninsula. The model is run in one-way double nested mode, with a 60 km grid point spacing “mother” domain encompassing the eastern regions of Asia and a 20 km grid point spacing nested domain covering the Korean Peninsula. The simulation spans the three-year period of 1 October 2000 through 30 September 2003 and the boundary conditions needed to run the mother domain experiment are provided from the NCEP reanalysis of observations. The model results are compared with a high density station observation dataset to examine the fine scale structure of the surface climate signal. The model shows a good performance in capturing both the sign and magnitude of the seasonal and inter-annual variations of the surface variables both over East Asia as a whole and over the Korean Peninsula in the nested system. Some persistent biases are however present. Surface temperature is systematically underestimated, especially over mountainous regions in the warm season. This feature may be due to the relatively coarse representation of the Korean topography. The simulated precipitation over the mother domain successfully reproduces the broad spatial pattern of observed precipitation over East Asia along with its seasonal evolution. On the other hand, fine scale details from the nested results show a varying level of quality for the different individual years. Because of the better resolved topographic forcing, the increased resolution of the nested model improves the spatial agreement with the fine scale observation fields for temperature and cold season precipitation. For summer monsoon precipitation the simulation of individual monsoon convective events and tropical storms is however more important than the topographic forcing, and therefore the performance of the nested system is more case-dependent.  相似文献   

18.
In the semiarid interior of the Iberian Peninsula, the topographic insulation from the surrounding seas promotes the role of internal sources of moisture and water recycling in the rainfall regime. In inland Iberia, the annual cycle of precipitation often has a distinctive peak in the springtime, when evapotranspiration (ET) is the highest, in contrast to the coastal areas, where it is more closely related to the external moisture availability and synoptic forcing, with a maximum in winter-autumn and a pronounced minimum in the summer. In this work we investigate the role of land surface water fluxes in the intensification of the hydrological cycle in the Iberian spring. We used data from 5 km resolution WRF-ARW model simulations over the Iberian Peninsula for eleven months of May (2000–2010). To bring out the effect of ET fluxes, we conducted experiments where ET water over land was removed from the system. Our findings indicate that the impact of ET on precipitation is on average very large (37 % increase). The impact is particularly strong in the interior north and northeast areas where the observed annual rainfall cycle has a peak in May, suggesting that the role of surface water fluxes is very important there. To investigate whether this role is as a water source or to amplify precipitation dynamics, we computed the recycling ratio analytically from the model data. In addition, we developed a procedure to quantify the amplification impact by comparing the recycling ratio and the relative change in precipitation between control and experiments with ET removed. Results show that the role of surface water fluxes on precipitation depends on large-scale forcing and moisture advection. When the synoptic forcing and moisture advection are strong, such as in fronts associated to Atlantic storms, the impact of ET fluxes is small. When there is potential for convection, as is commonly the case of late spring in the Iberian Peninsula, ET fluxes have a significant impact. Surface moisture fluxes moisten the boundary layer and increase moist static energy, strengthening convective processes, and their role goes from being a primary water source for precipitation (recycling) to have mostly an amplification effect as external moisture availability increases. Our findings show that for the eleven simulated May cases over the Iberian Peninsula, the role of ET fluxes in activating recycling is important and explains 27–58 % of their total impact on precipitation, depending on the method used to calculate the recycling ratio. This indicates that the complementary effect of ET on amplifying rainfall from external sources of moisture is comparable in magnitude to the recycling mechanism and important as well.  相似文献   

19.
Numerical study of 1998 late summer flood in East Asia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The Purdue Regional Model (PRM) is applied to study the evolution of regional climate and weather systems during the heavy precipitation over Korea and China between 30 July and 18 August 1998. The results show that heavy rainfall along the Mei-yu and Changma front was due to the combination of: (1) an anomalous 850 hPa subtropical high, (2) a stronger baroclinicity around 40°N over eastern Asia and a low pressure located to the north of the front, and (3) an excessive evaporation from abnormal wet, warm land. The precipitation ended by 18 August when the subtropical high had retreated and the low pressure in Mongolia moved away from Asia continent. The model reproduced in great detail the observed baroclinic waves to the north, subtropical high and low-level jet to the south, and the front with heavy precipitation extending from southern China, and the Korean peninsula to Japan. High correlations are found for mass, momentum, and moisture fields between model simulation and the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis for the 20-day means.  相似文献   

20.
Summary Attempts to use the 4-parameter Kappa distribution (K4D) with the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) on the summer extreme daily rainfall data at 61 gauging stations over South Korea have been made to obtain reliable quantile estimates for several return periods. A numerical algorithm for searching MLE of K4D by minimizing the negative log-likelihood function with penalty method has been described. The isopluvial maps of estimated design values corresponding to selected return periods have been presented. The highest return values are centered at sites in the south-western part of the Korean peninsula. The distribution of return values for annual maxima of 2-day precipitation (AMP2) is more similar to the climatological features of annual total precipitation of Korea than that of annual maxima of daily precipitation (AMP1). Our results of return values delineate well the horizontal patterns of the heavy precipitation over the Korean peninsula. Received January 15, 2001 Revised October 8, 2001  相似文献   

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