Sea level acceleration and variability in the Chesapeake Bay: past trends,future projections,and spatial variations within the Bay     

Ezer  Tal 《Ocean Dynamics》2023,73(1):23-34

Ocean Dynamics - Fast sea level rise (SLR) is causing a growing risk of flooding to coastal communities around the Chesapeake Bay (hereafter, CB or “the Bay”), but there are also...  相似文献   

淮河流域洪涝灾害时间对称性研究     

王云  延军平  马卫 《地球物理学进展》2020,(1):358-366

准确判断重大自然灾害发生趋势对于防灾减灾意义重大.基于时间对称性理论,本文构建“可公度降噪—对称性趋势判断—信息结构系稳定性检验”研究模式,判断了淮河流域(HRB)洪涝灾害发生趋势.结果表明:(1)通过可公度降噪处理去除了噪声元素,提高了预测的精确性;(2)运用三元可公度、蝴蝶结构图、信息结构系等方法判断,2019年HRB发生洪涝灾害的信号较强,该年发生洪涝灾害的随机性概率为66.7%,不漏报置信水平为57.1%;(3)通过洪涝灾害与太阳黑子活动的相关性分析可知,HRB在太阳黑子活动谷年附近易发生洪涝灾害,进一步提高了预测结果的可信度.“可公度降噪—对称性趋势判断—信息结构系稳定性检验”研究模式是对现有时间对称性方法的补充和完善,以期为中国灾害预测起到一定的推动作用.  相似文献   

Intraseasonal predictability of the duration of flooding above National Weather Service flood warning levels across the U.S. Midwest     

Andrea Neri  Gabriele Villarini  Francesco Napolitano 《水文研究》2020,34(23):4505-4511

Unpreparedness is often the main cause of the economic and social damages caused by floods. To mitigate these impacts, short-term forecasting has been the focus of several studies during the past decades; however, less effort has been paid to flood predictions at longer lead times. Here, we use forecasts by six models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble project with a lead time from 0.5 to 9.5 months to predict the seasonal duration of floods above four National Weather Service flood categories (“action,” “flood,” “moderate” and “major”). We focus on 202 U.S. Geological Survey gage stations across the U.S. Midwest and use a statistical framework which considers precipitation, temperature, and antecedent wetness conditions as predictors. We find that the prediction skill of the duration of floods for the “action” and “flood” categories is overall low, largely because of the low accuracy of the climate forecasts rather than of the errors introduced by the statistical models. The prediction skill slightly improves when considering the shortest lead times (i.e., from 0.5 to 2.5 months) during spring in the Northern Great Plains, where antecedent wetness conditions play an important role in influencing the generation of floods. It is very difficult to draw strong conclusions with respect to the “moderate” and “major” flood categories because of the limited number of available events.  相似文献   

Development of flood hazard maps of Bangladesh using NOAA-AVHRR images with GIS     

MD MONIRUL ISLAM  KIMITERU SADO 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):337-355

Abstract

Flood hazard maps were developed using remote sensing (RS) data for the historical event of the 1988 flood with data of elevation height, and geological and physiographic divisions. Flood damage depends on the hydraulic factors which include characteristics of the flood such as the depth of flooding, rate of the rise in water level, propagation of a flood wave, duration and frequency of flooding, sediment load, and timing. In this study flood depth and “flood-affected frequency” within one flood event were considered for the evaluation of flood hazard assessment, where the depth and frequency of the flooding were assumed to be the major determinant in estimating the total damage function. Different combinations of thematic maps among physiography, geology, land cover and elevation were evaluated for flood hazard maps and a best combination for the event of the 1988 flood was proposed. Finally, the flood hazard map for Bangladesh and a flood risk map for the administrative districts of Bangladesh were proposed.  相似文献   

An extension of the Green-Ampt model to decreasing flooding depth conditions,with efficient dimensionless parametric solution     

Daniel Barrera 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):824-833

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Methodology to set trigger levels in an urban drainage flood warning system – an application to Jhonghe,Taiwan     

Hsiang-Kuan Chang  Jihn-Sung Lai 《水文科学杂志》2018,63(1):31-49

A wireless water-level monitoring system for an urban drainage flood warning is developed, and stations equipped with pressure sensors are installed to monitor water levels. The water levels for flood warning are investigated. Two stages of warning water level for “larger” conduits are set based on the rate of rising water levels. In a similar way, only one stage of the warning water level is set for “smaller” conduits. The average rates of rising water levels for different scenarios are estimated using the US EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). When evaluating the impact of flooding, the outflows from manholes simulated by the SWMM are used as sources for a two-dimensional overland flow simulation. The integrated system is successfully executed in Jhonghe, New Taipei City, Taiwan, which has experienced urban drainage floods. Therefore, this system can provide urban drainage flood warnings to the authorities to take disaster reduction measures.  相似文献   

Magma superflows in the Bering Sea. 2. The mechanism of origin and movement and its evolution in time and space     

I. V. Melekestsev  Yu. B. Slezin 《Journal of Volcanology and Seismology》2017,11(2):113-122

It is shown that the source for numerous magma superflows (MSFs) with complex structures, whose traces have been identified in the Bering Sea (Melekestsev and Slezin, 2017), was regional mantle plume-like formations (or plumes). The magmatic material propagated from these for some hundreds of kilometers or farther along interfaces at different depths between crustal layers during n × 10⁵ to n × 10⁶ years. The long-continued generation and multi-portion structure of the MSFs is explained by slow pulsations in the rising jet of primary melt in the form of a beaded (“peristalsis-like”) structure of successive bulges (which we shall refer to as “magmons”), which float up as “asthenoliths” as the through flow in the channel becomes lower. The most extensive and longest MSFs were formed at the end of the Eocene through Oligocene, while the youngest and shortest flow was generated in the Pleistocene.  相似文献   

Using Resin‐Based 3D Printing to Build Geometrically Accurate Proxies of Porous Sedimentary Rocks          下载免费PDF全文

Sergey Ishutov  Franciszek J. Hasiuk  Dawn Jobe  Susan Agar 《Ground water》2018,56(3):482-490

Three‐dimensional (3D) printing is capable of transforming intricate digital models into tangible objects, allowing geoscientists to replicate the geometry of 3D pore networks of sedimentary rocks. We provide a refined method for building scalable pore‐network models (“proxies”) using stereolithography 3D printing that can be used in repeated flow experiments (e.g., core flooding, permeametry, porosimetry). Typically, this workflow involves two steps, model design and 3D printing. In this study, we explore how the addition of post‐processing and validation can reduce uncertainty in the 3D‐printed proxy accuracy (difference of proxy geometry from the digital model). Post‐processing is a multi‐step cleaning of porous proxies involving pressurized ethanol flushing and oven drying. Proxies are validated by: (1) helium porosimetry and (2) digital measurements of porosity from thin‐section images of 3D‐printed proxies. 3D printer resolution was determined by measuring the smallest open channel in 3D‐printed “gap test” wafers. This resolution (400 µm) was insufficient to build porosity of Fontainebleau sandstone (～13%) from computed tomography data at the sample's natural scale, so proxies were printed at 15‐, 23‐, and 30‐fold magnifications to validate the workflow. Helium porosities of the 3D‐printed proxies differed from digital calculations by up to 7% points. Results improved after pressurized flushing with ethanol (e.g., porosity difference reduced to ～1% point), though uncertainties remain regarding the nature of sub‐micron “artifact” pores imparted by the 3D printing process. This study shows the benefits of including post‐processing and validation in any workflow to produce porous rock proxies.  相似文献   

Recent development of the earthquake strong motion-intensity catalog and intensity prediction equations for Iran     

Mehdi Zare 《Journal of Seismology》2017,21(4):591-613

This study aims to develop a new earthquake strong motion-intensity catalog as well as intensity prediction equations for Iran based on the available data. For this purpose, all the sites which had both recorded strong motion and intensity values throughout the region were first searched. Then, the data belonging to the 306 identified sites were processed, and the results were compiled as a new strong motion-intensity catalog. Based on this new catalog, two empirical equations between the values of intensity and the ground motion parameters (GMPs) for the Iranian earthquakes were calculated. At the first step, earthquake “intensity” was considered as a function of five independent GMPs including “Log (PHA),” “moment magnitude (M_W),” “distance to epicenter,” “site type,” and “duration,” and a multiple stepwise regression was calculated. Regarding the correlations between the parameters and the effectiveness coefficients of the predictors, the Log (PHA) was recognized as the most effective parameter on the earthquake “intensity,” while the parameter “site type” was removed from the equations since it was determines as the least significant variable. Then, at the second step, a simple ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was fitted only between the parameters intensity and the Log (PHA) which resulted in more over/underestimated intensity values comparing to the results of the multiple intensity-GMPs regression. However, for rapid response purposes, the simple OLS regression may be more useful comparing to the multiple regression due to its data availability and simplicity. In addition, according to 50 selected earthquakes, an empirical relation between the macroseismic intensity (I₀) and M_W was developed.  相似文献   

Hydraulic modeling of flood pulses in the Middle Bussento Karst System (MBSKS), UNESCO Cilento Global Geopark,southern Italy          下载免费PDF全文

Vittorio Bovolin  Albina Cuomo  Domenico Guida 《水文研究》2017,31(3):639-653

Karst systems provide water for domestic and industrial uses and for generating hydropower, but they can also create fluvial hazards, such as upstream back‐flooding and downstream karst flash‐flood events. However, these hazards are difficult to foresee due to the complex recharge‐discharge processes as well as the lack of information on the inside of the system, which has often not been completely surveyed by speleologists or explored by boreholes. To overcome these difficulties, hydro‐chemical data from the monitoring system in the Middle Bussento Karst System (MBSKS), one of the first Experimental Karst Systems in southern Italy, were recorded and previously discussed. Based on shared background in flood karst hydraulic modeling, this paper describes the conceptual premises and rationale of a general‐purpose hydraulic model that is suitable both for the MBSKS and for other Mediterranean, multi‐recharge, mature, conduit‐dominated karst systems. To test the reliability of the model, simulations of time–space behavior and response are performed using natural and artificial flood pulses “as tracers”, considering a “pulse” as a significant variation in water quantity and/or quality. The results of the model explain the interactions between allogenic, autogenic, and anthropogenic recharges from differentiated sources and phreatic conduit systems. These results also clarify the overall response of karst springs at typical time scales of flood pulses. Table acronym name  相似文献   

The Consequences of the Oder Flood in 1997 on the Distribution of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in the Oder River     

Gesine Witt  Peter Gründler 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2005,33(4):301-314

Changes in the levels and spatial distribution of PAHs as a consequence of the Oder flood in the summer of 1997 were investigated in post‐flood sediments from the Oder River and the Oder Lagoon. The aim of this study was to identify sources of the PAH pollution and in particular investigate polluted sites (“hot spots”) in the most highly suspected locations of the drainage area. Molecular indices based on isomeric PAH ratios and the ratio of the parent PAHs to methylated PAHs were used to distinguish between the pollution sources. Elevated levels of PAHs were discovered in the post‐flood sediments of the Oder River in comparison to the average regional values. Elevated concentrations of PAHs were also found in fluffy layer samples taken from the Oder Lagoon and the Pomeranian Bight in late August. The highest concentrations of PAHs were observed near power plants or roads with heavy traffic. Most of the contamination originates from high temperature pyrogenic sources with some slight overlays of petrogenic sources. These increased concentrations of pyrogenic origin may be attributable to flooding of municipal and industrial waste disposal areas in the Oder River drainage.  相似文献   

Magsat anomaly field inversion for the U.S.     

M.A. Mayhew 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1984,71(2):290-296

Long-wavelength anomalies in the total magnetic field measured by Magsat over the United States and adjacent areas are inverted to an equivalent surface layer magnetization distribution. The model is based on an equal-area dipole grid at the Earth's surface. Model resolution, defined as the closest dipole spacing giving a solution having physical significance, is about 220 km for Magsat data in the elevation range 300–550 km. The magnetization contours correlate well with large-scale tectonic provinces. A higher-resolution (200 km) model based on relatively noise-free synthetic “pseudodata” is also presented. An excellent inverse correlation between apparent magnetization and heat flow in the western U.S. is demonstrated. A new regional heat flow map derived indirectly from Magsat data shows nearly all the important thermal anomalies evidenced in previous published maps. Notably, the map predicts high heat flow in Nebraska and the Dakotas, suggesting the presence of a “blind” geothermal area of regional extent.  相似文献   

Naturalizing the freezeup regimes of regulated rivers and exploring implications to spring ice-jam flooding     

Spyros Beltaos  Daniel L. Peters 《水文研究》2021,35(8):e14321

Naturalization of the flow hydrograph and ice regime is a key step in assessment of ecological and socioeconomic impacts of regulation across large portions of Europe, Asia and North America, where many rivers are dammed for hydropower generation. Building on previous naturalization of early-freshet flows that influence the nature of breakup and jamming events, novel methodology is developed to estimate natural freezeup flows and thence determine associated water levels, also known to influence subsequent breakup events. Using reservoir inflows, the new methodology is applied to the lower portion of the regulated Peace River, Canada, which forms the northern boundary of the Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD), a Ramsar wetland of international importance that partially depends on spring ice-jam flooding for recharge of its high-elevation, or “perched” basins. The PAD provides habitat for numerous aquatic, terrestrial and avian species and is vital to the maintenance of indigenous culture and lifeways. Naturalized freezeup levels in the lower Peace River are shown to be nearly always lower than corresponding regulated values, with the difference averaging ~1.6 m. Consistent with known physics of river ice breakup processes, the present results suggest that ice-jam flood frequency would likely have been greater under natural conditions. Though potentially adverse from the ecological standpoint, reduction of spring ice-jam flooding can benefit riverside communities. Implications of the present results to and comparison with, other Canadian and international rivers are discussed.  相似文献   

Sedimentary filling and sequence structure dominated by T-R cycles of the Nenjiang Formation in the Songliao Basin     

ZHANG ChenChen  ZHANG Shun  WEI Wei  WU ChaoDong  LIANG JiangPing  NIU Wen  DU JinXia  FU XiuLi  CUI KunNing  WANG Chao  WANG Hui 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2014,57(2):278-296

The Nenjiang Formation in the Songliao Basin is a symmetrical sequence of progradation-retrogradation,and is formed in the transgression cycle and regression cycle(T-R cycles)of the base level of deposition.We analyzed the drilling,well logging,core data,and seismic profiles of basin level,and by using the sequence stratigraphy,identified one secondary sequence boundary,two third-order sequence boundaries,and eight fourth-order sequence boundaries in the Nenjiang Formation.These eleven sequence boundaries can be divided into structural unconformity,depositional unconformity,flooding surface,and forced regression surface.Therefore the Nenjiang Formation can be subdivided into one secondary sequence,three third-order sequences,and ten fourth-order sequences.We have restored the sedimentary filling evolution within the stratigraphic framework of fourth-order sequences in the Nenjiang Formation.The sedimentary period of the first member of the Nenjiang Formation was corresponded to the global transgression period,which is also the development period of transgression cycle(T cycle),when the lake basin had the largest scope and deepest sedimentary water,the SB07(the maximum flooding surface)was formed on the top of strata during this period;covering above the SB07,there developed a set of condensation layer-oil shale,which is distributed in the whole basin and is the important source bed and regional cover.Therefore,a retrogradation sequence was formed in the T cycle of the first member of the Nenjiang Formation,characterized by the retrograding delta at a low angle.The delta has a giant front,a small plain,and many underwater distributary channels.Meanwhile,large gravity flow channels and sublacustrine fans are developed in the front of the delta.During the depositional period of the second member of the Nenjiang Formation,the R cycle began to develop due to the compression of the pacific tectonic domain;the source direction rotated 90°along with the eastern uplifting of the basin,and formed a series of east-west prograded and forced retrogradations.The prograding delta at high angel was developed in the interior of the sequence;the delta had a small front,a giant plain,and fewer underwater distributary channels,with the collapse at the foreslope,forming a series of slump fans.The slump fans can be divided into three types:discrete type,superimposed type,and fluid type.We built a whole"triad model"of the slump fan.Pointed out that the sequence of forced retrogradation formed by R cycle is a good structural mark of basin optimization,and rejected the viewpoint of"transgression"in the Nenjiang Formation of the Songliao Basin.  相似文献   

Rare earth and trace element characteristics of ophiolitic metabasalts from the Alpine-Apennine belt     

G. Venturelli  R.S. Thorpe  P.J. Potts 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1981,53(1):109-123

The Western Mediterranean Jurassic ophiolites contain abundant volcanic rocks that resemble modern ocean floor basalts. In this paper we report analyses of rare earth elements (REE), transition elements (Ni, Co, Cr, V, Sc) and high field strength elements (Ti, P, Y, Zr, Ta, Hf) for metabasalts from representative ophiolite outcrops in the Eastern Alps, Corsica and the Northern Apennines (Liguria).The chemical characteristics of the metabasalts range from “normal” to “transitional” mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB). Most chemical variation in the metabasalts from the different areas can be explained by low-pressure fractional crystallization, by differences in degree of partial melting, and by minor chemical heterogeneities of the source, but the “transitional” MORB characteristics of some metabasalts from Corsica (Balagne) might reflect formation from a source with different mineral and chemical composition. The estimated REE pattern of the source of the Liguria-type metabasalts corresponds to the pattern for certain Ligurian ultramafic rocks, which might therefore represent the residue from extraction of some ophiolitic lavas.While the Liguria-type ophiolitic metabasalts might represent products of a “normal”, for instance, oceanic ridge, the “transitional” metabasalts might be lavas erupted, during the early stages of opening of a small ocean basin, or along the continental margin of a larger ocean basin.  相似文献   

The use of remotely sensed land cover to derive floodplain friction coefficients for flood inundation modelling     

M. D. Wilson  P. M. Atkinson 《水文研究》2007,21(26):3576-3586

Remotely sensed land cover was used to generate spatially‐distributed friction coefficients for use in a two‐dimensional model of flood inundation. Such models are at the forefront of research into the prediction of river flooding. Standard practice, however, is to use single (static) friction coefficients on both the channel and floodplain, which are varied in a calibration procedure to provide a “best fit” to a known inundation extent. Spatially‐distributed friction provides a physically grounded estimate of friction that does not require fitting to a known inundation extent, but which can be fitted if desired. Remote sensing offers the opportunity to map these friction coefficients relatively straightforwardly and for low cost. Inundation was predicted using the LISFLOOD‐FP model for a reach on the River Nene, UK. Friction coefficients were produced from land cover predicted from Landsat TM imagery using both ML and fuzzy c‐means classifiction. The elevetion data used were from combined contour and differential global positioning system (GPS) elevation data. Predicted inundation using spatially‐distributed and static friction were compared. Spatially‐distributed friction had the greatest effect on the timing of flood inundation, but a small effect on predicted inundation extent. The results indicate that spatially‐distributed friction should be considered where the timing of initial flooding (e.g. for early warning) is important. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Dynamic links between shape of the eddy viscosity profile and the vertical structure of tidal current amplitude in bays and estuaries     

Wei Chen  Huib E. de Swart 《Ocean Dynamics》2016,66(3):299-312

Several field studies in bays and estuaries have revealed pronounced subsurface maxima in the vertical profiles of the current amplitude of the principal tidal harmonic, or of its vertical shear, over the water column. To gain fundamental understanding about these phenomena, a semi-analytical model is designed and analysed, with focus on the sensitivity of the vertical structure of the tidal current amplitude to formulations of the vertical shape of the eddy viscosity. The new analytical solutions for the tidal current amplitude are used to explore their dependence on the degree of surface mixing, the vertical shape of eddy viscosity in the upper part of the water column and the density stratification. Sources of surface mixing are wind and whitecapping. Results show three types of current amplitude profiles of tidal harmonics, characterised by monotonically decreasing shear towards the surface, “surface jumps” (vertical shear of tidal current amplitude has a subsurface maximum) and “subsurface jets” (maximum tidal current amplitude below the surface), respectively. The “surface jumps” and “subsurface jets” both occur for low turbulence near the surface, whilst additionally the surface jumps only occur if the eddy viscosity in the upper part of the water column decreases faster than linearly to the surface. Furthermore, “surface jumps” take place for low density stratification, while and “subsurface jets” occur for high density stratification. The physics causing the presence of surface jumps and subsurface jets is also discussed.  相似文献   

Prediction of climate change effects on the runoff regime of a forested catchment in northern Iran     

Farhad Hajian  Bagher Zahabiyoun  Maia Ibsen 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(15):2729-2739

ABSTRACT

The southern coast of the Caspian Sea in northern Iran is bordered by a mountain range with forested catchments which are susceptible to droughts and floods. This paper examines possible changes to runoff patterns from one of these catchments in response to climate change scenarios. The HEC-HMS rainfall–runoff model was used with downscaled future rainfall and temperature data from 13 global circulation models, and meteorological and hydrometrical data from the Casilian (or “Kassilian”) Catchment. Annual and seasonal predictions of runoff change for three future emissions scenarios were obtained, which suggest significantly higher spring rainfall with increased risk of flooding and significantly lower summer rainfall leading to a higher probability of drought. Flash floods arising from extreme rainfall may become more frequent, occurring at any time of year. These findings indicate a need for strategic planning of water resource management and mitigation measures for increasing flood hazards.