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1.
Archeoseismological studies of the Kurmenty settlement have proved the seismogenic origin of the deformation in the walls at this site. The radiocarbon age of the first seismic event damaged the walls of the settlement is 7th century AD. The second seismic event occurred a few centuries later, probably in the late Middle Ages. The strongest seismic events of North Tien Shan occurred in the late 19th–early 20th century as the Chilik (1889, M = 8.4) and Kebin (1911, M = 7.9) also damaged the walls of the Kurmenty settlement. The local shaking intensity during these seismic events was I ≥ VII on MSK-64 scale.  相似文献   

2.
The seismic fragility of a system is the probability that the system enters a damage state under seismic ground motions with specified characteristics. Plots of the seismic fragilities with respect to scalar ground motion intensity measures are called fragility curves. Recent studies show that fragility curves may not be satisfactory measures for structural seismic performance, since scalar intensity measures cannot comprehensively characterize site seismicity. The limitations of traditional seismic intensity measures, e.g., peak ground acceleration or pseudo-spectral acceleration, are shown and discussed in detail. A bivariate vector with coordinates moment magnitude m and source-to-site distance r is proposed as an alternative seismic intensity measure. Implicitly, fragility surfaces in the (m, r)-space could be used as graphical representations of seismic fragility. Unlike fragility curves, which are functions of scalar intensity measures, fragility surfaces are characterized by two earthquake-hazard parameters, (m, r). The calculation of fragility surfaces may be computationally expensive for complex systems. Thus, as solutions to this issue, a bi-variate log-normal parametric model and an efficient calculation method, based on stochastic-reduced-order models, for fragility surfaces are proposed.  相似文献   

3.
A recently proposed model of foam impact on the air–sea drag coefficient C d has been employed for the estimation of the effective foam-bubble radius R b variation with wind speed U10 in hurricane conditions. The model relates C d (U10) with the effective roughness length Z eff (U10) represented as a sum of aerodynamic roughness lengths of the foam-free and foam-covered sea surfaces Z w (U10) and Z f (U10) weighted with the foam coverage coefficient α f (U10). This relation is treated for known phenomenological distributions C d (U10), Z w (U10), and α f (U10) at strong wind speeds as an inverse problem for the effective roughness parameter of foam-covered sea surface Z f (U10). The present study is aimed at the estimation of the effective roughness of the sea surface assuming that the measurement data for the effective drag coefficient are known. The effective foam-bubble size is found as a function of the wind speed.  相似文献   

4.
Recent estimates of fracture energy G ′ in earthquakes show a power-law dependence with slip u which can be summarized as G ′ ∝ u a where a is a positive real slightly larger than one. For cracks with sliding friction, fracture energy can be equated to G f : the post-failure integral of the dynamic weakening curve. If the dominant dissipative process in earthquakes is friction, G ′ and G f should be comparable and show a similar scaling with slip. We test this hypothesis by analyzing experiments performed on various cohesive and non-cohesive rock types, under wet and dry conditions, with imposed deformation typical of seismic slip (normal stress of tens of MPa, target slip velocity > 1 m/s and fast accelerations ≈ 6.5 m/s2). The resulting fracture energy G f is similar to the seismological estimates, with G f and G ′ being comparable over most of the slip range. However, G f appears to saturate after several meters of slip, while in most of the reported earthquake sequences, G ′ appears to increase further and surpasses G f at large magnitudes. We analyze several possible causes of such discrepancy, in particular, additional off-fault damage in large natural earthquakes.  相似文献   

5.
The hydrogen isotopic composition(δD) of leaf wax long-chain n-alkanes(C27, C29, and C31) from lacustrine sediments has been widely applied to reconstruct terrestrial paleoclimatic and paleohydrological changes. However, few studies have addressed whether the aquatic-derived n-alkanes can affect the δD values of lake sedimentary long-chain n-alkanes, which are usually regarded as a recorder of the terrestrial hydrological signals. Here we systematically investigated δD values of long-chain n-alkanes from modern aquatic plants, both near-shore and off-shore surface sediments, surrounding terrestrial plant litters, as well as river water and lake water in Lake Qinghai and its satellite lakes on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Our data showed that(i) δD values of long-chain n-alkanes from aquatic plants varied from-184‰ to-132‰ for n-C27, from-183‰ to-138‰ for n-C29, and from-189‰ to-130‰ for n-C31, respectively, with no significant differences among the three n-alkanes homologues;(ii) δD values of long-chain n-alkanes from aquatic plants were generally more positive than those from surrounding terrestrial plants, possibly because that they recorded the D-enrichment of lake water in this semi-arid region;(iii) δD values of long-chain n-alkanes from surface sediments showed significant differences among the three n-alkanes homologues, due to the larger aquatic input of n-C27 to the sedimentary lipid pool than that of n-C31, and(iv) n-C27 δD values of near-shore aquatic plants and near-shore sediments are more negative than those from off-shore as a result of lower δD values of near-shore lake water. Our findings indicate that in this region(i) the offset between sedimentary n-C27 and n-C31 δD values(ΔδDC27-C31) could potentially be used to evaluate if sedimentary long-chain n-alkanes are derived from a single source;(ii) while δD values of n-C27 may be influenced by lake water hydrological changes, sedimentary n-C31 is derived predominantly from terrestrial plants and thus its δD can serve as a relatively reliable indicator for terrestrial paleoclimatic and paleohydrological reconstructions.  相似文献   

6.
Floods have changed in a complex manner, triggered by the changing environment (i.e., intensified human activities and global warming). Hence, for better flood control and mitigation in the future, bivariate frequency analysis of flood and extreme precipitation events is of great necessity to be performed within the context of changing environment. Given this, in this paper, the Pettitt test and wavelet coherence transform analysis are used in combination to identify the period with transformed flood-generating mechanism. Subsequently, the primary and secondary return periods of annual maximum flood (AMF) discharge and extreme precipitation (Pr) during the identified period are derived based on the copula. Meanwhile, the conditional probability of occurring different flood discharge magnitudes under various extreme precipitation scenarios are estimated using the joint dependence structure between AMF and Pr. Moreover, Monte Carlo-based algorithm is performed to evaluate the uncertainties of the above copula-based analyses robustly. Two catchments located on the Loess plateau are selected as study regions, which are Weihe River Basin (WRB) and Jinghe River Basin (JRB). Results indicate that: (1) the 1994–2014 and 1981–2014 are identified as periods with transformed flood-generating mechanism in the WRB and JRB, respectively; (2) the primary and secondary return periods for AMF and Pr are examined. Furthermore, chance of occurring different AMF under varying Pr scenarios also be elucidated according to the joint distribution of AMF and Pr. Despite these, one thing to notice is that the associate uncertainties are considerable, thus greatly challenges measures of future flood mitigation. Results of this study offer technical reference for copula-based frequency analysis under changing environment at regional and global scales.  相似文献   

7.
Aftershock sequences of some strong earthquakes of Kamchatka, the Kurile Islands, and Japan are examined. Such source parameters as the length L, along-dip width W, motion on fault D, and stress drop Δσ are determined from the aftershock sequences considered. The values of these parameters were obtained by the formal estimation of linear source parameters (lower bound estimates) and visually (upper bound estimates). The correlation dependences of the obtained parameters on the surface wave (M S ) and seismic moment (M W ) magnitudes are calculated.  相似文献   

8.
The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake’s location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth (H?=?19 km), the seismic moment (M0?=?1.12×1017 Nm, M w 5.3), the focal mechanism (φ?=?280°, δ?=?14°, λ?=?84°), the source radius (a?=?1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δσ s ~22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω?2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q(f)?=?500f0.9, κ?=?0.04 s, and fmax?=?infinite, and a stress drop of Δσ?=?70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤?200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6?≤?M w ?≤?6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.  相似文献   

9.
The Aki-Utsu method of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) b value estimation is often misapplied so that estimations not using the G-R histogram are often meaningless because they are not based on adequate samples. We propose a method to estimate the likelihood Pr(b?b m , N, M 1, M 2) that an observed b m estimate, based on a sample of N magnitudes within an [M 1????≤?ΔM/2,?M 2?+?ΔM/2) range, where ΔM?=?0.1 is the usual rounding applied to magnitudes, is due to a “true” source b value, b, and use these likelihoods to estimate source b ranges corresponding to various confidence levels. As an example of application of the method, we estimate the b values before and after the occurrence of a 7.4-magnitude earthquake in the Mexican subduction zone, and find a difference of 0.82 between them with 100% confidence that the b values are different.  相似文献   

10.
The dynamics of energetic electrons (E e =0.17–8 MeV) and protons (E p =1 MeV) of the outer radiation belt during the magnetic storm of May 15, 2005, at high (GOES-10 and LANL-84 geosynchronous satellites) and low (Meteor-3M polar satellite) altitudes is analyzed. The data have been compared to the density, plasma velocity, solar wind, and magnetic field measurements on the ACE satellite and geomagnetic disturbances. During the magnetic storm main phase, the nighttime boundary of the region of trapped radiation and the center of westward electrojet shifted to L ～ 3. Enhancements of only low-energy electrons were observed on May 15, 2005. The belt of relativistic electrons with a maximum at L ～ 4 was formed during the substorm, the amplitude of which reached its maximum at ～0630 UT on May 16. The results are in good agreement with the regularity relating the position of a maximum of the new relativistic electron belt, boundaries of the trapped radiation region, and extreme low-latitude position of westward electrojet center to the Dst variation amplitude.  相似文献   

11.
Solutions of P-SV equations of motion in a homogeneous transversely isotropic elastic layer contain a factor exp(±ν j z), where z is the vertical coordinate and j?=?1, 2. For computing Rayleigh wave dispersion in a multi-layered half space, ν j is computed at each layer. For a given phase velocity (c), ν j becomes complex depending on the transversely isotropic parameters. When ν j is complex, classical Rayleigh waves do not exist and generalised Rayleigh waves propagate along a path inclined to the interface. We use transversely isotropic parameters as α H , β V , ξ, ? and η and find their limits beyond which ν j becomes complex. It is seen that ν j depends on ? and η, but does not depend on ξ. The complex ν j occurs when ? is small and η is large. For a given c/β V , the region of complex ν j in a ? -η plane increases with the increase of α H /β V . Further, for a given α H /β V , the complex region of ν j increases significantly with the decrease of c/β V . This study is useful to compute dispersion parameters of Rayleigh waves in a layered medium.  相似文献   

12.
Month-to-month changes in the statistical characteristics of the ionospheric E layer peak electron density NmE at medium and low geomagnetic latitudes under daytime geomagnetically quiet conditions are investigated. Critical frequencies of the ionospheric E layer measured by the middle latitude ionosonde Boulder and low latitude ionosondes Huancayo and Jicamarca at low solar activity from 1957 to 2015 have been used in the conducted statistical analysis. The mathematical expectation of NmE, standard deviation of NmE from the expectation of NmE, and NmE variation coefficient have been calculated for each month of the year. The months of the formation of extrema of these statistical parameters of NmE were found.  相似文献   

13.
To describe the cumulative distribution of the number of lithospheric plates over areas S, the dependence N(≥S) ～ S ?0.33 was proposed by Bird [2003]. Based on dimension considerations, the dependence N(≥S) ～ (?/S)1/3, where ? is the generation rate of kinetic energy of convection in the mantle estimated at 10?11 m2/s3, is proposed. The analogy of plate formation with developed hydrodynamic turbulence and other processes involving an energy input into the system and its dissipation is considered. Simple experiments on random partitioning of a surface into polygons gave their cumulative distributions over areas resembling those observed for lithospheric plates. This has led to the conclusion that the plate distribution pattern is characteristic of the random partitioning of surfaces.  相似文献   

14.
The composition characteristics of light hydrocarbons from crude oil, chloroform bitumen A, saturated hydrocarbon fraction, aromatic hydrocarbon fraction, and asphaltene fraction during cracking have been studied systematically. The results revealed that the content of n-alkanes, branched alkanes and cycloalkanes in light hydrocarbons from the samples gradually decreased as the simulation temperature increased, and finally almost depleted completely, while the abundance of methane, benzene and its homologues increased obviously and became the main products. The ratios of benzene/ n-hexane and toluene/n-heptane can be used as measures for oil cracking levels. Variation characteristics of maturity parameters of light hydrocarbons, for example, iC4/nC4, iC5/nC5, isoheptane value, 2,2-DMC4/nC6, and 2-MC6+3-MC6/nC7 for different samples with increasing pyrolysis temperature, are consistent with those in petroleum reservoirs, indicating that these parameters may be efficient maturity index.  相似文献   

15.
The time variations in three parameters during the last decades are considered. R(foF2) is the correlation coefficient between the nighttime and daytime values of foF2 for the same day. Stable trends are found for the minimum (R(foF2)(max)) and maximum (R(foF2)(min)) values of R(foF2) during a year. The foF2(night)/foF2(day) ratio demonstrates both, negative and positive trends, and the trend sign depends on the inclination I and declination D of the magnetic field. The correlation coefficient r(h, fo) between foF2 and the 100 hP level in the stratosphere demonstrates a decrease (in the years of maximum and minimum solar activity) from the 1980s to the 1990s. The trends in all three groups of data are considered under the assumption of long-term changes in the circulation in the upper atmosphere.  相似文献   

16.
Seismic observations exhibit the presence of abnormal b-values prior to numerous earthquakes. The time interval from the appearance of abnormal b-values to the occurrence of mainshock is called the precursor time. There are two kinds of precursor times in use: the first one denoted by T is the time interval from the moment when the b-value starts to increase from the normal one to the abnormal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock, and the second one denoted by T p is the time interval from the moment when the abnormal b-value reaches the peak one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. Let T* be the waiting time from the moment when the abnormal b-value returned to the normal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. The precursor time, T (usually in days), has been found to be related to the magnitude, M, of the mainshock expected in a linear form as log(T)?=?q?+?rM where q and r are the coefficient and slope, respectively. In this study, the values of T, T p , and T* of 45 earthquakes with 3?≤?M?≤?9 occurred in various tectonic regions are compiled from or measured from the temporal variations in b-values given in numerous source materials. The relationships of T and T p , respectively, versus M are inferred from compiled data. The difference between the values of T and T p decreases with increasing M. In addition, the plots of T*/T versus M, T* versus T, and T* versus T-T* will be made and related equations between two quantities will be inferred from given data.  相似文献   

17.
Aftershock hazard maps contain the essential information for search and rescue process, and re-occupation after a main-shock. Accordingly, the main purposes of this article are to study the aftershock decay parameters and to estimate the expected high-frequency ground motions (i.e., Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)) for recent large earthquakes in the Iranian plateau. For this aim, the Ahar-Varzaghan doublet earthquake (August 11, 2012; M N =6.5, M N =6.3), and the Ilam (Murmuri) earthquake (August 18, 2014 ; M N =6.2) have been selected. The earthquake catalogue has been collected based on the Gardner and Knopoff (Bull Seismol Soc Am 64(5), 1363-1367, 1974) temporal and spatial windowing technique. The magnitude of completeness and the seismicity parameters (a,??b) and the modified Omori law parameters (P,??K,??C) have been determined for these two earthquakes in the 14, 30, and 60 days after the mainshocks. Also, the temporal changes of parameters (a,??b,??P,??K,??C) have been studied. The aftershock hazard maps for the probability of exceedance (33%) have been computed in the time periods of 14, 30, and 60 days after the Ahar-Varzaghan and Ilam (Murmuri) earthquakes. For calculating the expected PGA of aftershocks, the regional and global ground motion prediction equations have been utilized. Amplification factor based on the site classes has also been implied in the calculation of PGA. These aftershock hazard maps show an agreement between the PGAs of large aftershocks and the forecasted PGAs. Also, the significant role of b parameter in the Ilam (Murmuri) probabilistic aftershock hazard maps has been investigated.  相似文献   

18.
We have analyzed the behavior of the F2 layer parameters during nighttime periods of enhanced electron concentration by the results of vertical sounding of the ionosphere carried out with five-minute periodicity in Almaty (76°55′ E, 43°15′ N) in 2001–2012. The results are obtained within the frameworks of the unified concept of different types of ionospheric plasma disturbances manifested as variations in the height and half-thickness of the layer accompanied by an increase and decrease of N m F2 at the moments of maximum compression and expansion of the layer. A good correlation is found between height h Am , which corresponds to the maximum increase, and layer peak height h m F, while h Am is always less than h m F. The difference between h Am and h m F linearly increases with increasing h m F. Whereas the difference is ~38 km for h m F = 280 km, it is ~54 km for h m F = 380 km. Additionally, the correlation is good between the increase in the electron concentration in the layer maximum ΔN m and the maximum enhancement at the fixed height ΔN; the electron concentration enhancement in the layer maximum is about two to three times lower than its maximum enhancement at the fixed height.  相似文献   

19.
Results of investigation of the lithosphere in the Kamchatka seismic focal zone from dynamic characteristics of earthquake records obtained at regional stations are presented. It is assumed that the specificity of the source zone can be estimated by the relation Cr = K P ? bK S ? c characterizing relative energies (energy classes, according to [Fedotov, 1972]) of short period transverse and longitudinal waves in the source. Azimuthal, spatial, and temporal variations in Cr and their relation to focal mechanisms are examined. Spatiotemporal variations in this parameter are shown to be caused by the influence of variations in the conditions in the source zone (its substance or process) on the radiation of P and S waves.  相似文献   

20.
We studied the effects of expected end-of-the-century pCO2 (1000 ppm) on the photosynthetic performance of a coastal marine cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp. PCC7002 during the lag, exponential, and stationary growth phases. Elevated pCO2 significantly stimulated growth, and enhanced the maximum cell density during the stationary phase. Under ambient pCO2 conditions, the lag phase lasted for 6 days, while elevated pCO2 shortened the lag phase to two days and extended the exponential phase by four days. The elevated pCO2 increased photosynthesis levels during the lag and exponential phases, but reduced them during the stationary phase. Moreover, the elevated pCO2 reduced the saturated growth light (Ik) and increased the light utilization efficiency (α) during the exponential and stationary phases, and elevated the phycobilisome:chlorophyll a (Chl a) ratio. Furthermore, the elevated pCO2 reduced the particulate organic carbon (POC):Chl a and particulate organic nitrogen (PON):Chl a ratios during the lag and stationary phases, but enhanced them during the exponential phase. Overall, Synechococcus showed differential physiological responses to elevated pCO2 during different growth phases, thus providing insight into previous studies that focused on only the exponential phase, which may have biased the results relative to the effects of elevated pCO2 in ecology or aquaculture.  相似文献   

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