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1.
基于洪水灾害风险管理的背景分析,提出用广义分布函数及其广义熵理论统一描述、物理解析洪水灾害风险管理系统的各种不确定性信息。基于洪水灾害风险形成机制和风险管理理论与水利科学、信息科学、智能科学综合集成途径,提出由洪水灾害孕灾环境和致灾因子危险性广义熵智能分析、承灾体易损性广义熵智能分析、承灾体灾情广义熵智能分析和风险决策广义熵智能分析组成的洪水灾害风险管理广义熵智能分析的初步理论框架及其主要研究内容,在其它灾害风险管理中具有一定的参考应用价值。 相似文献
2.
从防洪系统风险的基本概念出发，分析了防洪风险的性质，在洪水风险管理、防洪堤、水库大坝以及其他建筑物工程风险、洪水预报调度风险等诸多方面分析了当前的研究情况，对防洪系统的风险管理提出了几点建议。 相似文献
3.
Bracken L. J. Oughton E. A. Donaldson A. Cook B. Forrester J. Spray C. Cinderby S. Passmore D. Bissett N. 《Natural Hazards》2016,82(2):217-240
River flooding is a serious hazard in the UK with interest driven by recent widespread events. This paper reviews different approaches to flood risk management and the borders (physical, conceptual and organisational) that are involved. The paper showcases a multi-method approach to negotiating flood risk management interventions. We address three fundamental issues around flood risk management: differences and similarities between a variety of approaches; how different approaches work across borders between professionals, lay people, organisations and between different planning regimes; and, whether the science evidence base is adequate to support different types of flood risk management. We explore these issues through a case study on the River Tweed using Q methodology, community mapping and focus groups, participatory GIS, and interviews, which enabled co-production of knowledge around possible interventions to manage flooding. Our research demonstrated that excellent networks of practice exist to make decisions about flood risk management in the Scottish–English borders. Physical and organisational borders were continually traversed in practice. There was an overwhelming desire from professional flood managers and local communities for an alternative to simply structural methods of flood management. People were keen to make use of the ability of catchments to store water, even if land needed to be sacrificed to do so. There was no difference in the desire to embrace natural flood management approaches between people with different roles in flood management, expertise, training or based in different locations. Thus conceptual borders were also crossed effectively in practice. 相似文献
4.
Lixin Yi Ke Cheng Xiaoying Cao Yueling Sun Xiaoqing Cheng Ye He 《Natural Hazards》2017,85(2):1223-1248
Flood management consists many aspects such as hazard assessment, vulnerability assessment, exposure assessment, risk assessment, early warning system, damage assessment as well as risk mitigation planning. Conventional flood management are depending on the ground based monitoring of rainfall and river discharge. Many parts of the world are not covered by these sensor networks in one hand and these ground based systems are costly. Most of the tropical countries have high flood risk and low financial and institutional capacity to afford ground based system. While conventional flood management is time and cost intensive, spaceborne remote sensing provides timely and low-cost data in comparison to field observation, and is the obvious choice for most developing countries affected by flooding. Many aspects of flood management are being aided with the advancement of remote sensing technology. More precise and near real time flood detection, lead time in flood early warning system, accurate and advance inputs of hydrological models are now blessed by space technology. Many methods and approaches have been developed to overcome the constrains in the application of spaceborne remote sensing in flood management. Application of satellite remote sensing in flood hazard assessment is well documented, however, the application of space technology in other aspects of the flood management is also promising. Therefore, this review paper focuses on the applicability of spaceborne remote sensing and in most of the aspects in flood management.
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Deng-Hua Yan Jing Feng Chuan-Zhe Li Tian-Ling Qin Bai-Sha Weng Xin Jin 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(1):577-592
This paper focused on the development of a framework for collective water resources management in China to meet the change of drought and flood. Based on the observational data of drought and flood from 1950 to 2009 and the precipitation from 1961 to 2010, using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method, the evolutionary characteristic of drought and flood was analyzed. The results showed that drought and flood occurred frequently, simultaneous occurrences of drought and flood and the rapid shift between the two were increasing. The framework for collective strategies responding to drought and flood under this ever-changing environment was presented. A series of potential mitigation, prevention, and adaptation strategies were discussed. These included both planning and implementation side strategies. In regard to planning, the strategies for dealing with drought and flood should be shifted from crisis management to collective management, unifying normal and emergency management. Combination risk zoning of drought and flood should be conducted and collective emergency planning should be formulated. Moreover, the regulation capability of water conservancy projects group should be optimized to the highest possible level. In regard to implementation, based on the water resources collective management, rational water allocation for both normal and extreme value processes should be implemented. The water conservancy project groups for the extreme value process should work together, and the flood limit water level of reservoirs should be controlled dynamically. 相似文献
8.
In European river basins many flood management and protection measures are planned. However, the realisation of effective but space consuming measures such as retention areas and dike relocation mostly lags far behind time schedules. The development and set-up of an interregional and transnational basin-wide co-operation structure (“flood management alliance”) is substantial to realise catchment oriented flood management. In particular, this co-operation structure must involve spatial planning. The interregional and transnational co-operation structure establishes the framework for the joint accomplishment of instruments for flood risk management which is basin-wide agreed on. One of these instruments comprises financial compensations between downstream and upstream regions which shall improve the acceptance and the realisation of measures which bear disadvantages for the regions where measures are located. Existing and planned basin-wide co-operations in large transnational European river catchments demonstrate reasonable developments towards these goals. However, further efforts have to be made to exploit the chances interregional co-operation offers for improved flood risk management. 相似文献
9.
Dire Dawa city is identified as one of the most flood-affected cities in Ethiopia. Classifying village-level flood vulnerability using flood indicators is a new approach to Dire Dawa city. Analysis of different flood vulnerability factors underpins sustainable flood risk management and the application of Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) approach is the hub of this study. Relevant data were collected from 110 households sampled from purposely selected 10 villages found in Dire Dawa city. The flood vulnerability index was used to compare, classify and rank villages in terms of their flood vulnerability levels. For this purpose, 24 sets of indicators which are strongly affecting the levels of flood vulnerability were assessed from social, economic and physical perspectives. The FVI of each village was computed with unequal method of weighting indicators. The findings of the study revealed that Dire Dawa city villages were experiencing varying levels of flood vulnerability. Accordingly, villages 05, 06, 07 and 09 were identified with high flood vulnerability level while villages 03, 04 and 08 and villages 01, 02 and extension village were identified with medium and low level of vulnerability, respectively. Interestingly, the findings of the study confirmed that social factors contributed much for flood vulnerability in Dire Dawa city. Hence, future urban flood risk planning and management endeavors in the city of Dire Dawa must be underpinned by proper utilization of the flood vulnerability map developed addressing social vulnerability component through both structural and non-structural urban flood risk management measures.
相似文献10.
Operational flood prediction and flood risk assessment have become important components of flood management. One main aspect is the reliability assessment of the flood defence line during a flood event. This is generally performed by a comparison of the water level in the river to the crest height of the dikes whilst taking only hydraulic and geometric aspects into account. Additional information about material zones and material parameters are often available. However, these data are not in an appropriate shape when deriving the reliability of the flood defence line. This paper outlines how the fragility curve of a dike section is used to appropriately integrate geostatic and geohydraulic dike characteristics into operational flood management systems. Fragility curves are the result of a model-based reliability analysis and they summarise the dike performance depending on the water level. Failure modes such as piping or slope failure are included. In a case study, fragility curves for dike sections along the River Emscher (Germany) are determined. Their practical implementation in an operational flood management system shows an improvement in the operational reliability assessment due to the additional information taken into account. The use of fragility curves also supports the decision-making processes when emergency flood protection measures are required. 相似文献
11.
Roman Breuer Hani Sewilam Heribert Nacken Christiane Pyka 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(2):93
Based on the experience gained with SeCom2.0, we will explain the impact of game-based learning and provide an overview of the current use of Serious Games in teaching flood risk management in Germany. SeCom2.0 is a collaborative learning platform, which deals with a flood situation in Cologne. The use of Serious Games in flood risk management is still limited due to many factors. The article will give a deeper insight into the SeCom2.0 project, explaining the pedagogical design and the development. We will cover the pitfalls and possible suggestions for further development to facilitate wider use of such games by adapting the settings to local conditions. This article will also describe how a Serious Game can support lifelong learning for students and employees involved in flood risk management. The key components, design patterns and structure of or SeCom2.0 are described, along with ideas to implement selected topics in flood risk management in an engaging gaming environment. 相似文献
12.
Watershed urbanization and changing flood behavior across the Los Angeles metropolitan region 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
This article examines the effects of watershed urbanization on stream flood behavior in the Los Angeles metropolitan region.
Stream gauge data, spatially distributed rainfall data, land use/land cover, and census population data were used to quantify
change in flood behavior and urbanization in multiple watersheds. Increase in flood discharge started at the very early stage
of the urbanization when the population density was relatively low but the rate of increase of flood discharge varied across
watersheds depending on the distribution of the imperviousness surface and flood mitigation practices. This spatial variability
in rainfall–runoff indices and the increasing flood risk across the metropolitan region has posed a challenge to the conventional
flood emergency management, which usually responds to flood damages rather than being concerned with the broader issues of
land use, land cover, and planning. This study pointed out that alternative land use planning and flood management practices
could be mitigating the urban flood implemented hazard. 相似文献
13.
Participatory modelling of vulnerability and adaptive capacity in flood risk management 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Dagmar Haase 《Natural Hazards》2013,67(1):77-97
Being part of the EU-project NeWater on adaptive water resources management, the Ukrainian Tisa river basin is presented as an example for a participatory study dealing with flood risk, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The Tisa valley is regularly and increasingly faced with hazardous floods at very limited local budgets and high poverty rates. In order to make flood risk management more resilient and better adapted to climate change, scientists and stakeholders applied a set of qualitative and quantitative modelling approaches to characterise prevailing flood risk management, to discover respective vulnerabilities and to identify barriers and options of adaptive capacity. The former were found in the defensive mentality paradigm and the inert and hierarchical structure of present institutions, the latter in, firstly, an enormous potential to link the knowledge of different stakeholders in the region, secondly, a better integration of the individual flood preparedness of households and thirdly, the active involvement of the Church as institution in local flood risk management. 相似文献
14.
In this paper, flood problems in India, regional variabilityof the problem, present status of the ongoing management measures, their effectiveness and futureneeds in flood management are covered. Flood problems in India are presented by four zonesof flooding, viz. (a) Brahmaputra River Basin, (b) Ganga River Basin, (c) North-WestRivers Basin, and (d) Central India and Deccan Rivers Basin. Some special problems,related to floods like dam break flow, and water logging in Tal areas, are also mentioned.Progress of various flood management measures, both structural and non-structural, arediscussed. In addition, future needs to achieve efficient and successful flood managementmeasures in India are also pointed out. 相似文献
15.
蓄滞洪区的行蓄洪启用频率和蓄水方式决定着洪水管理与可持续发展途径,影响流域经济社会的可持续发展.根据各大流域蓄滞洪区的设计启用频率,设置了未来35年内蓄滞洪区发展的3种情景:维持现状、部分水库化和部分湿地化,构建了涵盖防洪、社会经济和生态发展等因子的途径选择指标体系,运用数据包络分析法(DEA),识别了不同设计启用频率的蓄滞洪区洪水管理与可持续发展的最优途径.结果表明:① 不同设计启用频率的蓄滞洪区在建成35年内,部分湿地化情景是中国70%蓄滞洪区的最优发展途径.② 设计启用频率50年一遇是蓄滞洪区发展途径选择的边界值;当等于或低于50年一遇时,部分湿地化是其最优途径;当高于50年一遇时,维持其现状是最优途径. 相似文献
16.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2008,340(9-10):644-650
The knowledge of past catastrophic events can improve flood risk mitigation policy, with a better awareness against risk. As such historical information is usually available in Europe for the past five centuries, historians are able to understand how past society dealt with flood risk, and hydrologists can include information on past floods into an adapted probabilistic framework. In France, Flood Risk Mitigation Maps are based either on the largest historical known flood event or on the 100-year flood event if it is greater. Two actions can be suggested in terms of promoting the use of historical information for flood risk management: (1) the development of a regional flood data base, with both historical and current data, in order to get a good feedback on recent events and to improve the flood risk education and awareness; (2) the commitment to keep a persistent/perennial management of a reference network of hydrometeorological observations for climate change studies. 相似文献
17.
基于人与洪水的相互关系,将防洪减灾非工程措施定义为:通过约束人类自身行为,以改善人与洪水关系,从而达到防洪减灾目的的一种措施,并阐述其内涵;根据这一定义,将防洪减灾非工程措施分为四类,即基于洪水物理属性的非工程措施、基于洪水风险的非工程措施、基于管理科学的非工程措施、基于政策与法规的非工程措施,并阐述各类非工程措施所体现的防洪策略思想和要点。指出蓄滞洪区是具有工程措施与非工程措施双重属性的防洪减灾措施。 相似文献
18.
In recent decades, population growth associated with unplanned urban occupation has increased the vulnerability of the Brazilian population to natural disasters. In susceptible regions, early flood forecasting is essential for risk management. Still, in Brazil, most flood forecast and warning systems are based either on simplified models of flood wave propagation through the drainage network or on stochastic models. This paper presents a methodology for flood forecasting aiming to an operational warning system that proposes to increase the lead time of a warning through the use of an ensemble of meteorological forecasts. The chosen configuration was chosen so it would be feasible for an operational flood forecast and risk management. The methodology was applied to the flood forecast for the Itajaí-Açu River basin, a region which comprises a drainage area of approximately 15,500 km2 in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil, historically affected by floods. Ensemble weather forecasts were used as input to the MHD-INPE hydrological model, and the performance of the methodology was assessed through statistical indicators. Results suggest that flood warnings can be issued up to 48 h in advance, with a low rate of false warnings. Streamflow forecasting through the use of hydrological ensemble prediction systems is still scarce in Brazil. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time this methodology aiming to an operational flood risk management system has been tested in Brazil. 相似文献
19.
汾河中游防洪决策支持系统是以管理科学、运筹学、控制论和行为科学为基础,以计算机、仿真技术和信息技术为手段,是辅助管理决策人员在防洪决策活动中,具有智能作用的人一机网络系统。系统由图文信息系统、历史暴雨洪水、雨情水情测报、洪水预报调度、人工演绎系统、智能辅助系统、数据管理系统、操作使用说明等8个部分组成。汾河防洪专家系统是该系统的智能分析部分。本文着重阐述了汾河防洪专家系统的设计思想和实现途径、建立防洪专家知识库的步骤和技巧,以及系统的运行和扩展。 相似文献