共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 26 毫秒
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由于预报模型的局限性和实时信息的不完善,洪水预报过程存在许多误差,而基于图形交互式修正技术是消除预报误差的有效手段。分析了水文预报过程交互式修正技术在洪水预报工作中的重要性,介绍了过程拟合平滑技术和样条插值技术,基于此基础上研究实现了以橡皮筋形式交互式修正水文预报过程的技术,并应用于洪水预报系统中。研究实例表明,该技术使用方便,有效地提高了洪水预报精度。 相似文献
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按照超阈值理论对洪水资料进行抽样,应用Copula函数分别建立了超阈值洪水洪峰、3d洪量和7d洪量与其发生时间的联合分布,得到了不同量级洪水在发生时间上的概率分布图,对水库汛期防洪调度运用具有一定的指导意义。同时,应用Copula函数建立了年最大超阈值洪水洪峰、3d洪量和7d洪量的联合分布,以此得到设计标准和校核标准的设计洪水,并通过同频率放大法得到了设计洪水过程线,该洪水过程线更符合水文现象的内在规律,展现了超阈值理论和Copula函数在水文洪水频率分析计算领域的良好应用前景。 相似文献
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浙江省衢州庙源溪为典型的山区河流,庙源溪雨量丰富,河流比降大,源短流急,洪水陡涨陡落,汇流速度快,洪峰流量大。基于GIS的不规则三角网和空间分析功能,实现水文特征值等值线的内插。根据GIS获取的水文特征值,计算不同历时平均点雨量,考虑点面折算系数,得到平均面雨量。通过频率分析,获得不同频率下的设计雨量。采用瞬时单位线法,进行汇流计算,推求设计洪水过程线及洪峰流量,为制作山洪风险图,建立小流域防洪避洪保障体系提供依据。 相似文献
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Müsteyde Baduna Koçyiğit Hüseyin Akay Ali Melih Yanmaz 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(15):331
The main goal of this study is to investigate the effect of the size of the subbasins of a watershed on the hydrologic parameters and their spatial variability in an estimation of the hydrologic parameters and hydrograph of a neighbouring ungauged basin. In this paper, Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS), a semi-distributed hydrologic model, is used to calibrate and cross-validate two flood events occurred in 1998 and then validate four other flood events occurred in 1991, 1994, 2002, and 2009 in Gokirmak Basin in Western Black Sea Region, Turkey. The basin is divided into seven different subbasins to investigate the effect of watershed partitioning on calibrated hydrologic parameters of each subbasin using the peak-weighted root mean square error method as an objective function and the hydrograph at the outlet of the whole basin. It is found out that as the geometric magnitudes of the subbasins changed, the calibrated values of the hydrologic parameters of those subbasins changed as well. Then, a neighbouring basin, Kocanaz, is considered as an assumed neighbouring ungauged basin to investigate the effect of watershed partitioning of a gauged basin on the estimation of hydrograph of a neighbouring ungauged basin. Hydrologic parameters and direct runoff hydrograph of assumed ungauged neighbouring basin are estimated from the hydrologic parameters of the HEC-HMS calibration results of Gokirmak. Statistical indicators of the simulation results for each basin partitioning were graded with respect to the boundary values of the simulation outputs to find the best alternative. The grading results show that the simulation results with a single basin gave better representation among all other partitioning except two flood events. 相似文献
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Natural Hazards - In a monsoon region, flooding is usually caused by heavy rainfall events in conjunction with saturated soil. A hydrograph in the wet season consists of multiple flood waves from... 相似文献
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Monte Carlo analysis of the effect of spatial distribution of storms on prioritization of flood source areas 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Implementation of structural and non-structural flood control measures in flood-prone watersheds is on increasing demand. Different watershed areas are not necessarily hydrologically similar and impose variable effects on the outlet flow hydrograph. Meanwhile, prioritization of watershed areas in terms of flood generation is essential for economic flood control planning. Previous works have focused on the definition of a flood index that quantifies the contribution of each subwatershed unit or grid cell to the outlet flood hydrograph through the application of unit flood response (UFR) approach. In the present research, for the first time, the effect of spatial pattern of storm events on the flood index variation was assessed via a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. To do so, the UFR approach was carried out for a large number of randomly generated rainfall spatial pattern. The proposed methodology was adopted to the Tangrah watershed in northern Iran. The watershed is frequently hit by floods that have historically caused loss of life and properties. The results indicated that for the more frequent flood events, the flood index is quite sensitive to the spatial distribution of rainfall such that for the highest ranked subwatershed (SW6), the standardized variation of the flood index values (i.e., the uncertainty range) decreases from 1.0 to 0.5 when the rainfall depth increases from 20 to 150 mm, respectively. The results further revealed that increasing the rainfall depth from 20 to 150 mm would cause the effect of rainfall spatial distribution on subwatersheds’ flood indices to diminish. The implications are that if flood control measures are designed for more frequent floods with lower return periods, an uncertainty analysis is required to identify the range of flood index variations. 相似文献
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以介于微分方程和概率论之间的边缘数学分支随机微分方程的数学模型,对水库调洪过程中的随机现象和规律进行数学描述和分析,试图全面正确地综合各种不确定性因素对库水位随机过程的影响.根据水库蓄洪量具有Wiener过程特性的分析,推导了带有随机输入项和随机初始条件的调洪演算Ito方程.在此基础上,运用Fokker-Planck向前方程,求介了调洪过程库水位的概率密度分布.计算成果表明,运用随机微分方程进行水库的调洪演算,有利于正确分析水库调洪的随机过程和进一步开展水库泄洪风险分析. 相似文献
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采用加拿大区域性中尺度大气模式MC2(Canadian Mesoscale Compressible Community)和新安江模型单向耦合模型系统,对2005年7月4～15日发生在淮河流域的一场暴雨洪水,进行了实时预报.采用王家坝以上流域的实测降水和王家坝断面的实测洪水资料,对MC2预报降水的时空分布和陆气耦合模型预报的洪水过程进行了分析.结果表明,MC2对该场强降水过程具有很好的预报能力,陆气耦合模型有效地增长了洪水预报的预见期,具有很好的应用前景. 相似文献
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针对现有分布式单位线汇流理论未考虑土壤含水量变化引起的时变汇流路径问题, 提出动态汇流路径新概念, 推求同时考虑降雨强度和土壤含水量时空分布的坡面流速计算公式, 引入地形指数刻画流域蓄水能力空间分布, 从而获得栅格尺度流域流速分布场, 进一步建立不同蓄满状态下流域动态汇流路径集合, 最终实现考虑动态汇流路径的时变分布式单位线推求。以龙虎圩和东石流域为实例, 通过SCS模型计算产流量, 采用本文所提方法进行汇流计算, 引入涵盖低流量误差、高流量误差及洪量误差的多目标优化方法率定参数, 2个典型流域28场洪水预报结果表明, 洪峰流量相对误差在±15%内, 峰现时间误差在±6 h之间, 纳什效率系数平均值超过0.8, 与现有方法相比, 所提方法能更加准确地反映汇流时间分布场, 提高了洪水预报精度。 相似文献
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洪水灾害常常给社会造成严重的经济损失,小流域洪水汇流速度快,易对下游造成瞬时毁灭性灾害,采取有效的小流域治理措施是必须的。根据山丘平圩区小流域特点分析比较设计洪水的计算方法,推荐采用瞬时单位线法,同时对小流域分片设计洪水组合进行了研究分析。以团结河流域上段治理为例进行具体分析,计算出该流域20年一遇防洪设计流量为472.60m3/s,为类似该地区的山丘、平原、圩区混合区设计洪水分析总结经验,提供参考,具有现实意义。 相似文献
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A real-time flood-forecasting method coupled with the one-dimensional unsteady flow model was developed for the Danshuei River
system in northern Taiwan. Based on the flow at current time, the flow at new time is calculated to provide the water stage
forecasting during typhoons. Data, from two typhoons in 2000: Bilis and Nari, were used to validate and evaluate the model
capability. First, the developed model was applied to validate and evaluate with and without discharge corrections at the
Hsin-Hai Bridge in Tahan Stream, Chung-Cheng Bridge in Hsintien Stream, and Sir-Ho Bridge in the Keelung River. The results
indicate that the calculated water stage profiles approach the observed data. Moreover, the water stage forecasting hydrograph
with discharge correction is close to the observed water stage hydrograph and yields a better prediction than that without
discharge correction. The model was then used to quantify the difference in prediction between different methods of real-time
water stage correction. The model results reveal that water stages using the 1–6 h forecast with real-time stage correction
exhibits the best lead times. The accuracy for 1–3 h lead time is higher than that for 4–6 h lead time, suggesting that the
flash flood forecast in the river system is reasonably accurate for 1–3 h lead time only. The method developed is effective
for flash flood forecasting and can be adopted for flood forecasting in complicated river systems. 相似文献
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Several small reservoirs and a large number of check dams had been constructed in the Wangkuai reservoir watershed after 1970s, and flood time series lacked stationarity, which affected the original design flood hydrographs for the Wangkuai reservoir. Since the location, storage capacity and drainage area of the large number of check dams were unknown, we present a method to estimate their total storage capacities (TSC) and total drainage areas (TDA) by using the recorded rainstorm and flood data. On the basis of TSC and TDA, the flood events which occurred in an undisturbed period were reconstructed under current conditions to obtain a stationary flood series. A frequency analysis was subsequently performed to assess the design flood peak and volume for both small and medium design floods with a 10–200 year return period. For large and catastrophic floods, it was assumed that the upstream check dams and small reservoirs would be destroyed, and water stored in these hydraulic structures were re-routed to the Wangkuai reservoir by unit hydrograph. The modified flood peak and volume decreased for floods with a 10–200 year return period when compared to the current design flood. But for large design floods with a return period exceeding 500 years, peak discharge increased. This study provides a new method for design flood calculation or modification of the original design flood in watersheds with a large number of check dams. 相似文献
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近年来,无资料或资料缺乏地区汇流计算成为水文研究热点。基于地形参数的地貌瞬时单位线(GIUH)方法凭借其对历史降雨径流实测资料的不依赖性,已然成为径流模拟研究中被普遍采用且效果较好的方法之一。为探讨江苏省无资料山丘区的径流模拟方法,选取具有典型地形地貌特征的镇江通胜洛阳河小流域展开研究。根据地貌特征值等数据提取出该流域的地貌单位线,采用地貌单位线计算径流过程,利用2016、2017年汛期实测的4场洪水进行方法验证,将计算径流与实测数据进行对比分析,结果表明:基于地貌特征的地貌单位线法在该流域洪水模拟中具有较高精度,又因该流域于江苏省乃代表性区域,初步判定可将该方法推广至其他无资料山丘区流域。 相似文献
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峰丛洼地的坡地径流成分划分 总被引：8，自引：2，他引：6
峰丛洼地的石质坡地具有独特的包气带结构和产流模式,其表面岩石裸露,土壤薄且呈现斑块状分布,下部发育表层岩溶带.表层岩溶带的存在决定了石质坡地的产流模式.原本不透水的岩石表面成为"筛子",表层岩溶带和下部包气带之间的界面成为重要的产流界面,称之为表层岩溶带产流.石质坡地的径流是表层岩溶带产流、超渗产流、饱和产流的集合.由于岩溶动力系统的差异导致来自不同界面的径流的温度、pH、电导率、方解石溶解饱和指数(SIc)和二氧化碳分压(P_(CO2))也不同.利用径流的物理、化学曲线对石质坡地的径流进行初步的定性划分,将径流分为洪峰和基流.洪峰的上升段由超渗产流和饱和产流构成,退水过程以及基流则主要是由表层岩溶带径流提供. 相似文献
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Flood frequency analysis of river swat using Log Pearson type 3, Generalized Extreme Value,Normal, and Gumbel Max distribution methods 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Muhammad Farooq Muhammad Shafique Muhammad Shahzad Khattak 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(9):216
In Pakistan, floods are among the most devastating and recurring natural hazards. Flood hazard assessment requires flood event magnitude and probability of occurrence. Flood frequency analysis is the most common technique used for the at-site estimation of flood recurrence magnitude. This paper evaluates four most commonly used distribution methods, i.e., Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Log Pearson 3 (LP3), Gumbel Max, and Normal for the flood frequency and estimation of flood recurrence. Different hydrological stations data namely Khwazakhela, Chakdarra, Panjkora, and Munda Headwork located at Swat river was taken from Provincial Irrigation Department, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The analysis is done for 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year return periods by using annual maximum discharge data from 1980 to 2016 (37 yr). Three goodness-of-fit tests were applied to the fitted distributions, i.e., Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Anderson–Darling, and Chi-squared at 5% significance level. Results indicate that LP3 and GEV were ranked top two distributions at all locations while Gumbel Max and Normal were the least fitted having rank 3 and 4, respectively. Based on the goodness-of-fit ranking, LP3 was selected for the estimation of flood magnitude and return periods at Khwazakhela. Designed hydrographs based on probabilistic approach and flood 2010 hydrograph are presented for flood simulation. 相似文献