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1.
东北三省农业旱灾风险评估研究 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
气候变化背景下,干旱对农业生产造成的损失已不容忽视。明晰粮食主产区面临的旱灾风险特征有利于保障中国粮食生产安全。东北三省是中国最重要的粮食主产区之一,明晰该地区的农业旱灾特征对农业生产具有十分重要的作用。基于自然灾害系统理论针对东北三省构建了农业旱灾风险评估模型,并在县市尺度对不同等级农业旱灾风险进行了分区。研究中分别从省份尺度和县市尺度对农业旱灾危险性、暴露性、脆弱性、抗旱能力及农业旱灾综合风险进行评估。结果表明：省份尺度上,农业旱灾综合风险由高到低分别为黑龙江省、吉林省及辽宁省。其中危险性年际间差异明显,暴露性则相对稳定。2010-2015年间脆弱性呈增加趋势,三省抗旱能力均随年际变化而波动。空间范围上,东北三省农业旱灾风险由南向北递增。农业旱灾综合风险等级上,中级及其以上级别县市占对应省份的比例由高到低分别为黑龙江省（75.81%）、吉林省（41.30%）与辽宁省（0%）。值得注意的是,农业旱灾综合等级最高的地区主要集中在三江平原及松嫩平原区。 相似文献
2.
Xianfeng Liu Xiufang Zhu Yaozhong Pan Shuangshuang Li Yanxu Liu Yuqi Ma 《地理学报(英文版)》2016,26(6):750-767
In this paper, we compared the concept of agricultural drought and its relationship with other types of droughts and reviewed the progress of research on agricultural drought monitoring indices on the basis of station data and remote sensing. Applicability and limitations of different drought monitoring indices were also compared. Meanwhile, development history and the latest progress in agricultural drought monitoring were evaluated through statistics and document comparison, suggesting a transformation in agricultural drought monitoring from traditional single meteorological monitoring indices to meteorology and remote sensing-integrated monitoring indices. Finally, an analysis of current challenges in agricultural drought monitoring revealed future research prospects for agricultural drought monitoring, such as investigating the mechanism underlying agricultural drought, identifying factors that influence agricultural drought, developing multi-spatiotemporal scales models for agricultural drought monitoring, coupling qualitative and quantitative agricultural drought evaluation models, and improving the application levels of remote sensing data in agricultural drought monitoring. 相似文献
3.
Land pressure and adaptation are the main factors determining environmental degradation in most of China’s mountainous regions.
Little attention so far has been paid to the adaptation strategies based on evaluation of land pressure in these regions.
We evaluated the grain production pressure and economic development pressure for 21 small watersheds undergoing soil conservation
measures in the northern mountainous region of China, compared the evaluation results with actual production for each of the
watersheds, and analyzed the adaptation strategies. The results imply that land pressure was spatially heterogeneous among
the sample watersheds, but there was a balancing trend between land pressure and productive capacity for each watershed. Under
rising pressure, these watersheds developed a variety of adaptation strategies such as labor migration, increasing fruit and
nut production, and expanding rural tourism if possible. These strategies result from evolution of the market economy in China,
and persistent development of the national economy determines the variation of environment in these mountainous regions. 相似文献
4.
《地理学报(英文版)》2016,(6)
In this paper, we compared the concept of agricultural drought and its relationship with other types of droughts and reviewed the progress of research on agricultural drought monitoring indices on the basis of station data and remote sensing. Applicability and limitations of different drought monitoring indices were also compared. Meanwhile, development history and the latest progress in agricultural drought monitoring were evaluated through statistics and document comparison, suggesting a transformation in agricultural drought monitoring from traditional single meteorological monitoring indices to meteorology and remote sensing-integrated monitoring indices. Finally, an analysis of current challenges in agricultural drought monitoring revealed future research prospects for agricultural drought monitoring, such as investigating the mechanism underlying agricultural drought, identifying factors that influence agricultural drought, developing multi-spatiotemporal scales models for agricultural drought monitoring, coupling qualitative and quantitative agricultural drought evaluation models, and improving the application levels of remote sensing data in agricultural drought monitoring. 相似文献
5.
采用全要素生产率F?re-Primont指数,分析了纳入气候要素和非纳入气候要素2种情景的重庆市全要素生产率增长时空变化。结果表明：① 相比于非纳入气候要素情景,纳入气候要素的重庆市农业全要素生产率增长数值尽管偏低,但具有显著的空间分异,且能较好的反映农业技术进步与极端干旱事件对农业生产的影响。② 重庆市农业全要素生产率增长的主要驱动力来自技术进步;而增长阻碍主要来自剩余混合效率,因此应加强农业结构性改革,进一步改善农业生产投入产出结构。③ 受农业发展基础和生产结构的影响,重庆市农业全要素生产率增长较大的地区集中在西部区县;而增长偏低地区集中在主城区。④ 2006年重庆极端干旱事件对农业全要素生产率增长产生显著影响,导致农业全要素生产率增长在2006年明显偏低;各区县受极端干旱事件的影响不同,应根据各区县农业资源条件,有针对性提出适应气候变化的农业生产策略。 相似文献
6.
Land pressure and adaptation are the main factors determining environmental degradation in most of China’s mountainous regions. Little attention so far has been paid to the adaptation strategies based on evaluation of land pressure in these regions. We evaluated the grain production pressure and economic development pressure for 21 small watersheds undergoing soil conservation measures in the northern mountainous region of China, compared the evaluation results with actual production for each of the watersheds, and analyzed the adaptation strategies. The results imply that land pressure was spatially heterogeneous among the sample watersheds, but there was a balancing trend between land pressure and productive capacity for each watershed. Under rising pressure, these watersheds developed a variety of adaptation strategies such as labor migration, increasing fruit and nut production, and expanding rural tourism if possible. These strategies result from evolution of the market economy in China, and persistent development of the national economy determines the variation of environment in these mountainous regions. 相似文献
7.
宁夏农业干旱灾害综合风险分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
农业干旱灾害风险分析是农业防灾减灾的重要内容。本文以灾害风险理论为基础,构建宁夏农业干旱灾害综合风险评估模式,该模式综合考虑了干旱致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和防灾减灾能力4类风险影响因素,并在GIS技术的支持下,完成宁夏农业干旱灾害风险区划。结果表明：宁夏各地农业干旱灾害风险差异较大,风险较高的区域集中在宁夏中南部山区的同心、海原、固原、西吉、彭阳等地,风险较低的区域集中在北部大部分地区以及南部泾源、隆德等地,这一结果与宁夏各地环境特点、经济投入、农业发展现状和趋势一致。 相似文献
8.
干旱是农作物生长发育的主要环境胁迫因子,也是制约农业丰产丰收的关键自然要素。农业干旱监测通常基于气象站点观测数据,这在一定程度上难以反映区域尺度的农业干旱状况。以甘肃省为研究区,基于MODIS、TRMM、ESA CCI等遥感数据产品和气象站点数据,利用随机森林回归模型构建综合气象干旱指数（CMDI）,并对甘肃省2011—2019年农作物生长季（4—9月）旱情时空格局及变化规律进行分析。结果表明：（1）CMDI与实测值的决定系数（R2）在各月均高于0.634,且与标准化降水蒸散发指数（SPEI）在空间上具有一定的相关性,表明该指数可反映农业干旱的发生发展过程。（2）甘肃省农业干旱呈现明显的地域分异规律,干旱程度由东南向西北逐渐加重,其中河西地区多为特旱区和重旱区,陇中地区为重（中）旱区,陇南、陇东、甘南地区为干旱-无旱波动变化区。（3）2011—2019年甘肃省农业干旱在年、月尺度上均呈现较大的波动趋势,其中2012年干旱程度最轻,2017年则最为严重;甘肃省大部分地区在4月和6月,陇东、陇南地区分别在5月和9月以及甘南地区4—9月农业旱情有所减轻外,其余地区在农作物生长季的旱情呈加重趋... 相似文献
9.
气候变暖背景下黄河流域干旱灾害风险空间特征 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
黄河流域是中国重要的经济带和经济增长极,也是人口密集暴露、特色农业种植和重点生态承载区。在全球变暖和极端降水事件频发的气候背景下,近年来黄河流域干旱灾害变化特征异常突出,新形势下该流域的干旱灾害风险及其对气候变化的响应机制需进一步深入认识。本文利用1960年以来黄河流域122个国家气象站逐日气象数据,结合遥感、社会统计和地理信息数据与技术,基于灾害风险理论,建立致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力可靠性4个因子的干旱灾害风险指标体系和模型,详细分析了黄河流域干旱灾害风险变化特征和区域差异性及其气候变化的影响机制。结果表明：黄河流域干旱灾害风险分布格局具有明显的地带性和复杂性,流域区域差异显著,总体是中下游风险高于上游,高风险区主要位于黄河流域中下游,致灾因子危险性是黄河流域干旱灾害风险的主导因子,其次是孕灾环境脆弱性和防灾减灾能力可靠性,而承灾体易损性贡献量相对最小。干旱灾害风险影响机制的区域差异也很显著,上游是孕灾环境脆弱性和防灾减灾能力可靠性的影响大于致灾因子和易损性,中游则是致灾因子、易损性和防灾减灾能力对干旱灾害风险的贡献度大,下游是干旱致灾因子起主导作用,致灾因子危险性和承灾体易损性控制了风险总体格局。黄河流域干旱灾害风险变化规律以及对气候变化的响应异常复杂,流域干旱灾害风险主要受季风气候和复杂地形的影响,还受社会经济发展水平、人口暴露度和水资源供需矛盾等多种要素的影响。该研究对黄河流域生态文明建设,粮食安全保障和国家发展战略具有重要意义。 相似文献
10.
选取新疆维吾尔自治区14个地（州）为研究对象,从农业气候干旱的敏感性和恢复力2个角度选取10个指标,对该区2001-2010年的农业气候干旱脆弱性进行评价。通过计算新疆各地（州）农业气候干旱脆弱度并绘制新疆农业气候干旱脆弱性区划图,分析该区农业气候干旱脆弱性的年际变化和地域分布特点及规律,初步探讨了其成因,提出缓解新疆农业气候干旱脆弱性的科学对策。结果表明：新疆各地区农业气候干旱脆弱度在时间尺度存在差异性变化,并存在显著地域性差异,总体呈现出 “东高西低,南高北低”的分布状况,主要原因不仅有地形、水文和气候等自然环境因素的差异,还包括经济产业结构、科学技术研究、灌溉设施、全民意识和政策管理等社会经济因素,可以通过采用先进技术和高效管理措施、根据气候采取种植结构格局和方式、合理开采高效利用水资源、增强全民生态保护意识等措施,缓解干旱影响、降低区域干旱脆弱性。 相似文献
11.
The Senegal River Basin (SRB) is a shared watershed in West Africa which includes regions (the upper basin, valley, and delta),
characterized by distinct environmental conditions. An important feature of the Senegal River flow volume historically was its inter-
annual irregularity, which caused a major water resource constrain. This situation has been accentuated during the long-term
drought (1969–1984) in the Sahel zone which highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability.
SRB is undergoing fundamental environmental, hydrologic, and socioeconomic transitions and represents a good illustration of sensitivity
to climatic variations and opportunities for adaptation. This paper aims to study water resources systems under stress from climate
variability and change in the Senegal River Basin. The results show (1) through the compilation of available data, information
and knowledge (sedimentological, climatical, geological, environmental, archeological, etc.), the chronological consequences of climate
change during the past millennium in West Africa, and also (2) an analysis of the recent impacts and vulnerability to climate
change in the SRB and finally (3) the adaptation strategies in the SRB in order to identify and resolve problems associated with
this water scarcity and to address the potential for guaranteed agricultural production in this narrow geographic area. 相似文献
12.
灌溉农区农业旱灾系统脆弱性诊断与评估——以暖温带半湿润地区河北邢台县为例 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
农业旱灾脆弱性的存在是干旱成灾的主要原因。文章明晰了农业旱灾脆弱性的概念和表现形式,分析了导致和影响农业旱灾系统脆弱性的主要因素,提出了脆弱性诊断思路,建立了以生产过程和生活过程为基础的旱灾脆弱性评估指标体系与模型,并以河北省邢台县为例进行了评估。研究表明。降水波动是干旱致灾的自然压力;而人口食物需求导致的土地利用强度过高,农业需水总量持续严重超过水资源承载力是干旱致灾的根源,人均耕地资源限制、收入水平低和应对能力差强化了旱灾脆弱性,加剧了旱灾风险。 相似文献
13.
Thomas W. Giambelluca Dennis Nullet Michael A. Nullet 《The Professional geographer》1988,40(4):404-415
A pilot study of spatial patterns of agricultural drought hazard in the south-central Pacific is presented. The durations of crop stress periods are estimated using a water balance approach. A rainfall approach is used to identify dry periods corresponding to different durations. Strong correlation between the results of the two methods indicates that monthly rainfall data are sufficient for estimating the patterns of agricultural drought hazard in the region. The simpler rainfall method is particularly useful for high islands where data required for the water balance approach are not sufficient to characterize the complex climatic patterns. Drought hazard is greatest in the eastern and southwestern parts of the study area. Great spatial variation in drought hazard is observed in a small area on the high islands of Western Samoa, where the range of values found within a few tens of kilometers is about the same as the range found across thousands of kilometers for low islands. 相似文献
14.
小空间尺度农业旱灾承灾体脆弱性评价初探--以湖南省常德市鼎城区双桥坪镇为例 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
该文探讨小空间尺度农业旱灾承灾体脆弱性评价,阐述针对不同空间尺度建立不同的旱灾承灾体脆弱性评价指标体系的必要性。基于湖南省常德市双桥坪镇的实地调查资料,构建包括耕地平坦指数、水塘灌溉指数等评价指标体系,通过比较各因素的相对重要性确定其权重,对2001年双桥坪镇16个村农业旱灾承灾体脆弱度进行评价。结果表明,该镇旱灾脆弱度较高,西部村庄的旱灾脆弱性普遍小于东部村庄。用同年的实际旱灾灾情损失资料进行验证,吻合程度较高。 相似文献
15.
中国云贵高原喀斯特地区春旱特征分析 总被引：8，自引：6，他引：2
利用1951~2004年54年88个站3~5月日降水量资料,计算云贵喀斯特地区春旱强度指数,对该区春旱强度指数时间序列进行小波分析,揭示云贵喀斯特地区春旱强度指数变化的多时间尺度的复杂结构。结果表明:全区范围内春旱强度指数序列变化具有明显的周期和突变点,春旱强度指数存在22年左右的周期特征。特重区、严重区13~15年的周期也很显著,并存在2~3年的主周期;中旱区和轻旱区还具有9~11年的周期,存在3~4年的主周期。根据主周期进行预测,特重区、严重区干旱程度将加重;轻旱区、中旱区干旱程度将减轻。同时还分析了春旱的分布特征、形成的环流场和物理因子。 相似文献
16.
农户尺度的黄土高原乡村干旱脆弱性及适应机理 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
干旱脆弱性及人类对干旱的适应机理分析是干旱及半干旱地区人地关系研究的重要内容,也是西北地区乡村人地系统可持续性研究的新视角。本文运用Turner脆弱性分析框架,将其改进应用到黄土高原乡村农户的干旱脆弱性及其适应领域,选取榆中县和长武县气象数据和农户调查数据,应用主成分分析、综合指数法、差异性分析和鲁棒性分析等方法分别对指标权重、农户干旱脆弱性指数及其差异性与脆弱性指数的不确定性进行分析与检验,并从适应能力、适应策略和适应模式三个层面揭示适应机理。主要结论为：①中连川乡农户干旱脆弱性指数大于洪家镇,且不同村落间农户干旱脆弱性指数差异显著;②农户干旱适应机理为暴露—敏感性影响农户收入,农户生计系统是适应干旱暴露扰动的决定因子,农户类型、生计方式、土地利用、灌溉设施和政策扶持的差异性产生不同的适应模式和适应效果;③农户干旱脆弱性指数排名出现频率较高且排名变化范围较小,具有较强的鲁棒性,表明农户干旱脆弱性计算结果具有稳健性。 相似文献
17.
东北地区耕地变化对粮食生产能力的影响评价 总被引：28，自引：0，他引：28
分析研究当前区域性耕地资源数量与质量的变化格局和态势, 研究其耕地资源变化对粮食生产能力的影响, 具有重要的理论和现实意义。以东北地区为例, 利用“3S”技术, 着 重应用GIS 空间分析优势, 首先分层次开展耕地自然质量评价、耕地利用质量评价与耕地综 合质量评价, 分析耕地自然质量、耕地利用质量与粮食单产的关系, 研究区域耕地数量变化 引起的耕地综合质量空间分布变化; 然后从耕地数量、耕地质量、作物种植制度等方面, 探 讨东北地区耕地变化对粮食生产能力的影响。为本地区耕地资源可持续利用与管理, 制定科学合理的粮食生产发展规划提供借鉴, 为其他地区开展类似研究提供参考。 相似文献
18.
Most food insecure countries do not have long-term records of either agricultural drought or the impacts of agricultural drought on food security. This lack of data impedes famine early warning and crop insurance programs. One recent paper addresses this issue by using resampled rainfall data, a basic crop yield model, and linear regression to simulate distributions of grain yield. We expand on this process by incorporating flexible regression models and defining a set of criteria to test model performance. We also examine how well a model fit on national data can emulate yield distributions at regions within a country. We find that models with spatially varying coefficients are better able to simulate distributions than basic linear regression models. Generalized additive models also perform well but do not offer substantial improvement over varying coefficient models. We also find that simulated yield distributions are most accurate in higher producing regions that have lower within region diversity of yields. 相似文献
19.
西北地区农业旱灾与预测研究 总被引：17，自引：4，他引：13
西北地区干旱灾害在中国乃至世界上具有代表性,常常对农业生产、社会经济和人民生活带来巨大威胁。利用西北五省区(陕西、甘肃、宁夏、青海、新疆)1951～2000年的50年农业旱灾面积统计资料,分析了农业旱灾的时空强度变化。表明西北地区农业旱灾有增加趋势,以20世纪90年代增加最明显。利用西北地区均匀分布的40个站点50年的降水和气温资料,采用变换的Z指数法,探讨了干旱强度和地表径流量的时间变化与西北地区农业旱害的关系。表明降水量的减少及河川径流枯期与农业旱灾面积负相关关系密切。应用波谱分析与逐步自回归方法,分别建立了西北地区干旱指数的拟合回归预测模型,农业旱灾面积、成灾面积和绝收面积预测模型,并对西北地区干旱灾害的趋势进行了预测。表明西北地区干旱灾害在21世纪前十年有所减缓。经检验,模型预测效果良好,根据预测结果可以采取有针对性的减灾措施,减少西北地区农业灾害损失。 相似文献
20.
Desert rodents are occasionally exposed to long spells of drought. We aimed to examine how such dehydrating conditions affect resting metabolic rate (RMR), non-shivering thermogenesis (NST) and osmoregulatory capabilities in the desert inhabiting species Sekeetamys calurus. Dehydration was imposed by gradually increasing salinity of drinking water and by feeding the animals a high-protein diet. S. calurus responded to osmotic stress by reducing RMR, increasing NST capacity, reducing urine volume and increasing urine concentration. It is suggested that the reduction in RMR is an adaptation for conserving water, while the increase in NST capacity compensates for the reduction in RMR. 相似文献