共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
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本文把MM4模式中的总体边界层参数化方案引入到十一层细同治原始方程数值模式中去，用它与仅考虑简单边界层国擦的细网格模式对一典型江淮气旋天气过程分别作了24小时对比模拟试验；初步试验结果表明：边界层总体参数化方案的引入是可行的，对模式的预报效果在某些方面有显著改进． 相似文献
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A global hybrid coupled model is developed, with the aim of studying the effects of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The model includes a global ocean general circulation model and a statistical atmosphere model. The statistical atmosphere model is based on linear regressions of data from a fully coupled climate model on sea surface temperature both locally and hemispherically averaged, being the footprint of Atlantic meridional overturning variability. It provides dynamic boundary conditions to the ocean model for heat, freshwater and wind-stress. A basic but consistent representation of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks is captured in the hybrid coupled model and it is more than 10 times faster than the fully coupled climate model. The hybrid coupled model reaches a steady state with a climate close to the one of the fully coupled climate model, and the two models also have a similar response (collapse) of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to a freshwater hosing applied in the northern North Atlantic. 相似文献
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针对动态调节模型提出一种三阶段最小二乘辨识方法.先将模型变换为CARMA模型,估计出变换后的CARMA模型参数,再利用已得到的参数估计依次辨识原模型中的系统模型参数和噪声模型参数.该方法原理简单,有效可行. 相似文献
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Evaluation of forecast strategies for seasonal and decadal forecasts in presence of systematic model errors 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Linus Magnusson Magdalena Alonso-Balmaseda Susanna Corti Franco Molteni Tim Stockdale 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(9-10):2393-2409
This study discusses and compares three different strategies used to deal with model error in seasonal and decadal forecasts. The strategies discussed are the so-called full initialisation, anomaly initialisation and flux correction. In the full initialisation the coupled model is initialised to a state close to the real-world attractor and after initialisation the model drifts towards its own attractor, giving rise to model bias. The anomaly initialisation aims to initialise the model close to its own attractor, by initialising only the anomalies. The flux correction strategy aims to keep the model trajectory close to the real-world attractor by adding empirical corrections. These three strategies have been implemented in the ECMWF coupled model, and are evaluated at seasonal and decadal time-scales. The practical implications of the different strategies are also discussed. Results show that full initialisation results in a clear model drift towards a colder climate. The anomaly initialisation is able to reduce the drift, by initialising around the model mean state. However, the erroneous model mean state results in degraded seasonal forecast skill. The best results on the seasonal time-scale are obtained using momentum-flux correction, mainly because it avoids the positive feedback responsible for a strong cold bias in the tropical Pacific. It is likely that these results are model dependent: the coupled model used here shows a strong cold bias in the Central Pacific, resulting from a positive coupled feedback between winds and SST. At decadal time-scales it is difficult to determine whether any of the strategies is superior to the others. 相似文献
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层积云覆盖的边界层数值模拟研究(Ⅰ):数值模式的建立 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
层积云是一种在湍流作用下形成的边界层云,在这种边界层中,层积云顶即边界层顶,云层和非云层耦合在一起,为了加深对这种层积云覆盖的边界层的理解,许多作者已经做了大量的野外观测和数值试验研究,然而在数值模拟研究中存在湍流和云物理模式相互脱节的现象,针对这种缺陷,本文在湍流控制方程组中引入云滴控制方程,发展了一个新的用于研究海区层积云覆盖的边界层的数值模式,所建模式具有如下特点：（1）实现了云物理模式与湍流模式的相互耦合;（2）实现了云滴分档凝结模式和三阶湍流闭合边界层模式相互耦合,利用所建模式对大涡模拟对比试验所采用的个例进行了数值模拟,数值模拟结果表明,该边界层模式能较合理地模拟海区层积云覆盖的边界层微湍流结构和云微物理过程。 相似文献
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Summary We present a simple, deterministic energy balance model. The model is designed to represent the atmospheric component of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. It is a one dimensional, global model with time and space resolutions of one year and 10° of latitude respectively. The model predicts the surface air temperature and estimates the surface freshwater flux diagnostically. The coupling between the atmospheric model and an ocean model is accomplished by heat and freshwater fluxes at their interface. The heat flux is calculated according to the difference in the surface air temperature and ocean surface temperature, while the freshwater flux is estimated from the latent heat transport in the atmosphere by a diagnostic equation. Two parameterizations for the latent heat transport are proposed, which distinguishes the two versions of the model.Before proceeding with interactive runs, we study the behaviour of the model in a decoupled mode. Some experiments with initial conditions altered and external forcings changed ar carried out to investigate the sensitivity and stability of the model. In particular, the influence of the ice-albedo feedback on model solutions is examined. The results of these experiments may be helpful both in understanding the characteristics of the model and in interpreting results when the model is coupled to an OGCM.With 9 Figures 相似文献
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为了真实模拟干旱、半干旱地区以及湿润地区的陆面与大气之间的能量和物质交换 ,发展了一个具有普适性的南京气象学院 ( NIM)陆面过程 ( LSP)模式。该模式是由等温植被参数化方案和本文建立的土壤模式所组成。土壤模式又分为五层模式和两层模式两种。利用 1 979年 5～ 8月“青藏高原气象科学实验”资料作验证 ,同时将五层模式与 Deardorff( 1 978)陆面模式、两层模式作了对比 ,结果表明五层土壤模式的模拟效果较好 ,它比 Deardorff模式优越 ,也比两层土壤模式模拟效果稍好一些。 相似文献
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将区域海气耦合模式RegCM3-POM和区域气候模式RegCM3 40年(1963-2002年)的模拟结果与NCEP/NCAR再分析资料进行对比,检验区域海气耦合模式对中国华北地区夏季大气水汽含量和水汽输送特征的模拟能力,比较耦合模式与单独区域气候模式的差异.结果表明,区域海气耦合模式RegCM3-POM的模拟性能相对于单独区域气候模式RegCM3,大气水汽输送特征的模拟能力有了较大的改进.分析显示两种模式都能够较好地再现东哑地区气候平均夏季大气水汽储量浅红和水汽输送的空间分布特征,而耦合模式对大气水汽输送的模拟更为合理.在对流层中低层更接近观测;耦合模式对中国华北地区夏季平均大气水汽输送通量在垂直方向卜的分布型及水平4个边界水汽输送收支的模拟,相对于单独大气模式有了一定的改进;耦合模式对伴随华北地区夏季早涝的大气水汽异常输送也具有较好的模拟能力,其模拟的水汽输送异常的来源与观测基本一致,尤其是在20°N以北地区,耦合模式结果相对于单独区域气候模式有了很大的改进.但同时耦合模式在低纬度海洋上对气候平均夏季大气水汽含量模拟的偏差比区域气候模式显著;与观测相比,耦合模式对来自孟加拉湾地区的大气水汽输送模拟偏弱,而对西太平洋副热带高压西侧水汽输送模拟偏强,与华北夏季旱涝相联系的水汽输送异常的模拟在低纬度海洋上也存在明显偏差. 相似文献
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A long-range transport model with nonlinear chemical reactions is described. The model contains 35 pollutants and 70 chemical reactions. This is a Eulerian model defined on a space domain containing the whole of Europe. The spherical space domain (corresponding to the Earth's surface covered by the model) is mapped into a square plane domain and discretized by using a 32×32 grid. The grid increments are equidistant (both along the Ox axis and along the Oy axis). The choice of values of the physical parameters involved in the model and the numerical treatment of the model are shortly discussed. The model is tested with meteorological data for 1985 and 1989. The numerical results are compared with measurements at stations located in different European countries. Extensive comparisons of ozone concentrations for July 1985 with measurements taken at 24 European stations are also carried out. Results concerning three episodes in July 1985 as well as results obtained in the study of the sensitivity of the ozone concentrations to variations of NO
x
and/or anthropogenic VOC emissions are presented. The advantages and the limitations of such a model are discussed. The model is continuously improved by adding new modules to it. The plans for improvements in the near future are outlined. 相似文献
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Daniel Reinert Volkmar Wirth Joachim Eichhorn Walter-Georg Panhans 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2007,125(1):109-132
This paper presents the dry version of a new large-eddy simulation (LES) model, which is designed to simulate air flow and
clouds above highly complex terrain. The model is three-dimensional and nonhydrostatic, and the governing equations are sound
filtered by use of the anelastic approximation. A fractional step method is applied to solve the equations on a staggered
Cartesian grid. Arbitrarily steep and complex orography can be accounted for through the method of viscous topography. The
dynamical model core is validated by comparing the results for a spreading density current against a benchmark solution. The
model accuracy is further assessed through the simulation of turbulent flow across a quasi two-dimensional ridge. The results
are compared with wind-tunnel data. The method of viscous topography is not restricted to moderately sloped terrain. Compared
to models using curvilinear grids, it allows this model to be applied to a much wider range of flows. This is illustrated
through the simulation of an atmospheric boundary-layer flow over a surface mounted cube. The results show that the dry model
version is able to accurately represent the complex flow in the vicinity of three-dimensional obstacles. It is concluded that
the method of viscous topography was successfully implemented into a micrometeorological LES model. As will be shown in Part
II, this allows the detailed study of clouds in highly complex terrain. 相似文献
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The Xin'anjiang Model is used as the basic model to develop a monthly grid-based macroscalehydrological model for the assessment of the effects of climate change on water resources.Themonthly discharge from 1953 through 1985 in the Huaihe River Basin is simulated.The sensitivityanalysis on runoff is made under assumed climatic scenarios.There is a good agreement betweenthe observed and simulated runoff.Due to the increase of time interval and decrease ofprecipitation intensity on monthly time scale,there is no monthly runoff in some model girds as themomhly hydrological model is applied to the Huaihe River Basin.Two methods of downscalingmonthly precipitation to daily resolution are validated by running the Xin'anjiang model withmonthly data at a daily time step.and the model outputs are more realistic than the monthlyhydrological model.The metbods of downscaling of monthly precipitation to daily resolution mayprovide an idea in solving the problem of the shortage of daily data.In the research of the climatechange on water resources,the daily hydrological model can be used instead of the monthly one. 相似文献
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Ufuk Utku Turuncoglu Nellie Elguindi Filippo Giorgi Nicolas Fournier Graziano Giuliani 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(7-8):1731-1748
We present a validation analysis of a regional climate model coupled to a distributed one dimensional (1D) lake model for the Caspian Sea Basin. Two model grid spacings are tested, 50 and 20 km, the simulation period is 1989–2008 and the lateral boundary conditions are from the ERA-Interim reanalysis of observations. The model is validated against atmospheric as well as lake variables. The model performance in reproducing precipitation and temperature mean seasonal climatology, seasonal cycles and interannual variability is generally good, with the model results being mostly within the observational uncertainty range. The model appears to overestimate cloudiness and underestimate surface radiation, although a large observational uncertainty is found in these variables. The 1D distributed lake model (run at each grid point of the lake area) reproduces the observed lake-average sea surface temperature (SST), although differences compared to observations are found in the spatial structure of the SST, most likely as a result of the absence of 3 dimensional lake water circulations. The evolution of lake ice cover and near surface wind over the lake area is also reproduced by the model reasonably well. Improvements resulting from the increase of resolution from 50 to 20 km are most significant in the lake model. Overall the performance of the coupled regional climate—1D lake model system appears to be of sufficient quality for application to climate change scenario simulations over the Caspian Sea Basin. 相似文献
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Xiaohua Yang 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1993,65(4):401-424
This paper describes a nonhydrostatic and incompressible mesoscale model formulation using a terrain-following coordinate system. A tensor transformation procedure is used to derive a diagnostic equation for the nonhydrostatic pressure field. The model features a simplified second-order turbulence closure scheme. The two-dimensional version of the nonhydrostatic model, as well as the corresponding hydrostatic model, are applied to simulate stably stratified airflow over mesoscale bell-shaped mountain ridges. The results show that the nonhydrostatic model is capable of simulating nonhydrostatic dynamics of mesoscale lee wave systems such as the trapped wave phenomenon. 相似文献
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This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone (TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). In Part I, it is shown that the model error of GRAPES may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, a further examination of the model error is the focus of Part II. Considering model error as a type of forcing, the model error can be represented by the combination of good forecasts and bad forecasts. Results show that there are systematic model errors. The model error of the geopotential height component has periodic features, with a period of 24 h and a global pattern of wavenumber 2 from west to east located between 60°S and 60°N. This periodic model error presents similar features as the atmospheric semidiurnal tide, which reflect signals from tropical diabatic heating, indicating that the parameter errors related to the tropical diabatic heating may be the source of the periodic model error. The above model errors are subtracted from the forecast equation and a series of new forecasts are made. The average forecasting capability using the rectified model is improved compared to simply improving the initial conditions of the original GRAPES model. This confirms the strong impact of the periodic model error on landfalling TC track forecasts. Besides, if the model error used to rectify the model is obtained from an examination of additional TCs, the forecasting capabilities of the corresponding rectified model will be improved. 相似文献
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Thomas W. Horst 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1984,30(1-4):413-430
The assumptions and predictions of four diffusion-deposition models are compared, and two simple plume depletion models are recommended. One model applies an analytical, constant eddy-diffusivity solution of the advection-diffusion equation as a deposition correction to the general Gaussian plume model. Predictions of this model compare moderately well with those of the surface depletion model, an exact treatment of plume depletion, and it is particularly useful for estimating the transport and deposition of settling particles. The second model is a correction to the simple source depletion model that also accounts for the change in the vertical concentration profile caused by deposition. The computational requirements of this model are similar to those of the unmodified source depletion model, while its predictions near the surface are very close to those of the surface depletion model. 相似文献