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1.
Globalclimatechangeanditspotentialinlliactsonhumanaffairshavebeenthesubjectofconsiderablediscussionwithintheaca相似文献   

2.
《山地科学学报》2020,17(6):1462-1474
Climate change has major impacts on the livelihoods of forest-dependent communities. The unpredictable weather conditions in rural Nepal have been attributed to a changing climate. This study explored the climate change adaptation and coping strategies that rural communities adopt for the conservation of natural resources and livelihoods in the mid-hills of Nepal. This paper explored major climatic hazards, assessed different coping and adaptation measures, and barrier faced to climate change adaptation based on perceptions by forest-dependent communities. We conducted focus group discussions, questionnaire surveys, and semistructured interviews with local communities and stakeholders. The results showed that rural communities had experienced significant impacts of climate change and variability. In response, they are practicing diverse coping and adaptation strategies,including the construction of bioengineering structures and planting different species that grow quickly and establish promptly.  相似文献   

3.
The Himalaya represents a vast mountain system and globally valued for its significant role in regulation of global as well as regional climate that has direct impact on biodiversity and ecosystem services crucial for sustenance of millions of people in Himalaya and adjoining areas. However, mountain regions worldwide are impacted by climate change and at the same time represent distinctive area for the assessment of climate related impacts. Climate change impacts in Himalayan region have its implications on food production, natural ecosystems, retreat of glacier, water supply, human and animal health and overall human well being. The livelihood and food security of the people inhabited in region largely depend on climate sensitive sectors i.e. agriculture, livestock, forestry and their interlinkages with each other, and has the potential to break down food and nutritional security as well as livelihood support systems. People’s perception and understanding of climate can be an important asset when it comes to adaptation to climate change impact; however it is not taken into consideration for the development of policy design and implementation of modern mitigation and adaptation strategies by governments and other civil society organizations. The knowledge of local people and farming communities for rural landscape management and sustainable use of bioresources is gaining credence as a key strategy to cope up with the climate change. Therefore, the present study analyzes the indigenous knowledge of local people and their perceptions on climate change, and also documented adaptation approaches at local level in mountain ecosystem of western Himalaya. The study could be useful to policy makers to design appropriate adaptation strategies to cope up with the impacts of climate change.  相似文献   

4.
The objectives of this study were to analyze the biodiversity of the Traditional Gudeuljang Irrigated Rice Terraces in Cheongsando, South Korea’s representative GIAHS (Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System) site, with reference to position and land-use features, and to develop a plan to promote agricultural biodiversity in the region. We confirmed approximately 54,000 m2 of Gudeuljang paddy fields by an on-site survey. Of the Traditional Gudeuljang Irrigated Rice Terraces confirmed by onsite inspection, our survey showed that approximately 24,000 m2 are currently being used as paddy fields, approximately 15,000 m2 are being used as dry fields, and approximately 14,000 m2 are fallow. In terms of other non-agricultural land use, there was grassland, including graveyards; artificial arboreal land, such as orchards, rivers and wetlands, and man-made facilities, such as roads and residences. We also confirmed that the Traditional Gudeuljang Irrigated Rice Terraces had higher plant species diversity than conventional terraced rice paddies, and there was a difference in life form characteristics between the two types. Although the superficial topsoil structure is the same for the Traditional Gudeuljang Irrigated Rice Terraces (TGIRTs) and conventional terraced rice paddies, it is thought that the differences in the subsurface structure of the TGIRTs contribute greatly to species and habitat diversity. However, the TGIRTs in Cheongsando are facing degeneration, due to damage and reduction in agricultural activity. The main cause is the reduction in the number of farming households due to an aging population in Cheongsando. In order to address this problem, we proposed a management plan, related to fallow paddy fields in South Korea, to initiate voluntary activities in the TGIRTs.  相似文献   

5.
The Hani Rice Terraces System, based on gravity-flow irrigation, is one of the Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems(GIAHS) pilot sites selected by FAO in 2010. The water resource plays an important role in the sustainable development of this system. The value of water conserved by the forest is influenced by natural, economic and social factors. In this paper, the water quality, per capita water resources, per capita GDP and population density are chosen as indices to construct an index system for a comprehensive evaluation of water resources value. The weights of these indices are 0.443, 0.31, 0.141 and 0.106 respectively, which are determined by the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) method. The water resources value has been assessed by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that the water resources value in the Hani Rice Terraces System is 4.25 RMB/m~3. Evaluating the value of water resources in the Hani Rice Terraces System can provide a reference for ecological compensation, for raising public awareness of the importance of protecting the system, and ultimately achieving its sustainable development.  相似文献   

6.
An increase in extreme precipitation events due to future climate change will have a decisive influence on the formation of debris flows in earthquake-stricken areas. This paper aimed to describe the possible impacts of future climate change on debris flow hazards in the Upper Minjiang River basin in Northwest Sichuan of China, which was severely affected by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The study area was divided into 1285 catchments, which were used as the basic assessment units for debris flow hazards. Based on the current understanding of the causes of debris flows, a binary logistic regression model was used to screen key factors based on local geologic, geomorphologic, soil, vegetation, and meteorological and climatic conditions. We used the weighted summation method to obtain a composite index for debris flow hazards, based on two weight allocation methods: Relative Degree Analysis and rough set theory. Our results showed that the assessment model using the rough set theory resulted in better accuracy. According to the bias corrected and downscaled daily climate model data, future annual precipitation (2030-2059) in the study area are expected to decrease, with an increasing number of heavy rainfall events. Under future climate change, areas with a high-level of debris flow hazard will be even more dangerous, and 5.9% more of the study area was categorized as having a high-level hazard. Future climate change will cause an increase in debris flow hazard levels for 128 catchments, accounting for 10.5% of the total area. In the coming few decades, attention should be paid not only to traditional areas with high-level of debris flow hazards, but also to those areas with an increased hazard level to improve their resilience to debris flow disasters.  相似文献   

7.
极端气温事件发生频率的增加对人群的健康带来了很大的影响,深入理解人群对气温变化的感知特征有助于提高应对极端气温事件的预警、适应和管理水平。针对传统调查数据在样本量和覆盖度等方面的不足,本文使用基于微博的社交媒体数据来研究人群对气温感知的定量特征。研究通过建立气温关注度、敏感性和耐受性等指标,调查了中国2017年31个城市的人群对气温感知的空间格局变化与局部变异性,分析了不同季节和不同群体对气温感知的差异性与影响因素。分析结 果表明：人群对气温的感知表现出显著的纬度梯度规律性,纬度每下降1°,人群平均的热耐受性增强0.42 oC,冷耐受性降低0.31 oC,冷敏感性增强0.51;人群对气温的感知在不同季节、不同群体之间也表现出显著的差异性,反季的异常气温更易引起人群对于气温变化的关注,青少年与女性群体对冷更为敏感;气温感知特征的区域差异性与气候分区紧密相关,温带地区的人群比热带显示出更强的热耐受性,而热带地区的人群具有更显著的气温敏感性。本文研究结果可以为理解大尺度上人群对气温变化感知的基本特征和分异规律提供新的规律发现与证据支持。  相似文献   

8.
Land change is a cause and consequence of global environmental change.Land use and land cover have changed considerably due to increasing human activities and climate change,which has become the core issue of major international research projects.This study interprets land use and land cover status and the changes within the Koshi River Basin(KRB)using Landsat remote sensing(RS)image data,and employs logistic regression model to analyze the influence of natural and socioeconomic driving forces on major land cover changes.The results showed that the areas of built-up land,bare land and forest in KRB increased from 1990 to 2015,including the largest increases in forest and the highest growth rate in construction land.Areas of glacier,grassland,sparse vegetation,shrub land,cropland,and wetland all decreased over the study period.From the perspective of driving analysis,the role of human activities in land use and land cover change is significant than climate factors.Cropland expansion is the reclamation of cropland by farmers,mainly from early deforestation.However,labor force separation,geological disasters and drought are the main factors of cropland shrinkage.The increase of forest area in India and Nepal was attributed to the government’s forest protection policies,such as Nepal’s community forestry has achieved remarkable results.The expansion and contraction of grassland were both dominated by climatic factors.The probability of grassland expansion increases with temperature and precipitation,while the probability of grassland contraction decreases with temperature and precipitation.  相似文献   

9.
Shifting cultivation is a traditional farming system practiced in the tropical mountainous areas. Although it has been widely perceived as an economically inefficient and environmentally harmful agricultural production system, recent science reviews, however, indicate that the deleterious impacts of shifting cultivation on environment may have been overestimated. Despite the pressures of agricultural intensification in areas where shifting cultivation occurs, farmers across the tropics still maintain this traditional farming system. The objective of this study was to explore existing traditional shifting cultivation practices and their various modifications including the innovative farming techniques developed by farmers in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHTs), the mountainous region of Bangladesh, and examine their importance with respect to recent socio-economic and environmental changes. The study revealed that shifting cultivation still exists as the most dominant farming method which supports livelihoods and culture of the hill ethnic people. However, demand for more food and household income to meet livelihood needs of an increasing population combined with a rapid deterioration of soil and water quality over decades contributed to development of innovative farming practices through fallow land farming, crop substitution, agroforestry and homestead gardening in the CHTs. Through these farming techniques farmers maintain a strong relationship with traditional knowledge system embedded in the age-old shifting cultivation practices. Today state policies and market forces act in favor of replacement of traditional farming with intensive cash crop agriculture. It seems that disappearance of traditional farming practices from the hills may threaten local biodiversity and food security. It may be recommended that shifting cultivation should be encouraged in areas where they have potential for contributing to preservation of native biodiversity and ecosystem services, and protection of local peoples’ food security and cultural identity.  相似文献   

10.
The coastal zone is an area characterized by intense interaction between land and sea, high sensitivity to regional environmental changes, and concentrated human activities. Little research has investigated vegetation cover changes in coastal zones resulting from climate change and land-use change, with a lack of knowledge about the driving mechanism. Normalized diff erence vegetation index(NDVI) can be used as an indicator for change of the coastal environment. In this study, we analyzed the interannual changes and spatial distribution of NDVI in the coastal zone around Jiaozhou Bay in Qingdao, a coastal city undergoing rapid urbanization in northeast China. The underlying causes of NDVI variations were discussed in the context of climate change and land-use change. Results showed that the spatio-temporal distribution of NDVI displayed high spatial variability in the study area and showed a typical trend of gradually increasing from coastal to inland regions. The significant increase area of NDVI was mainly found in newly added construction land, extending along the coastline towards the inland. Land vegetation cover demonstrated a certain response relationship to sea-land climate change and land-based activities. The impact of land-based human activities was slightly greater than that of sea-land climate change for land vegetation cover. The results indicate that promoting ecological policies can build an ecological security framework of vegetation suitable for the resource characteristics of coastal cities. The framework will buf fer the negative ef fects of sea-land climate change and land-based human activities on vegetation cover and thereby achieve the balance of regional development and ecological benefits in the coastal zone.  相似文献   

11.
The knowledge of contemporary climatic change over the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau (QXP) has been inadequate for a long time due to lack of enough observational data. In this paper, on the basis of monthly temperature and precipitation data in 1961–1990 from 48 stations on the QXP, the temperature data are extended backward to 1901 with an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method, microscopic characteristics of contemporary climatic change over the QXP are analyzed, and the response of the plateau climate to global warming is discussed in combination with atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) outputs. The results show that the plateau climate, as a whole, has been warming since the early part of this century, that the precipitation has generally been increasing during the recent 30 years, and that these climatic trends seem to be related to the enhanced green-house effect induced by increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. This work is supported by the National and CAS (the Chinese Academy of Sciences) Tibet Research Project.  相似文献   

12.
Tree species respond to climate change at multiple scales,such as species physiological response at fine scale and species distribution (quantified by percent area) at broader spatial scale.At a given spatial scale,species physiological response and distribution can be correlated positively or negatively.The consistency of such correlation relationships at different spatial scales determines whether species responses derived from local scales can be extrapo-lated to broader spatial scales.In this study,we u...  相似文献   

13.
Identifying the impacts of climate change is important for conservation of ecosystems under climate change, particularly in mountain regions. Holdridge life zone system and K?ppen classification provide two effective methods to assess impacts of climate change on ecosystems, as typical climate-vegetation models. Meanwhile, these previous studies are insufficient to assess the complex terrain as well as there are some uncertainties in results while using the given methods. Analysis of the impacts of the prevailing climate conditions in an area on shifts of ecosystems may reduce uncertainties in projecting climate change. In this study, we used different models to depict changes in ecosystems at 1 km × 1 km resolution in Sichuan Province, China during 1961–2010. The results indicate that changes in climate data during the past 50 years were sufficient to cause shifts in the spatial distribution of ecosystems. The trend of shift was from low temperature ecosystems to high temperature ecosystems. Compared with K?ppen classification, the Holdridge system has better adaptation to assess the impacts of climate change on ecosystems in low elevation(0–1000 m). Moreover, we found that changed areas in ecosystems were easily affected by climate change than unchanged areas by calculating current climate condition.  相似文献   

14.
Migratory livestock raising has been one of the most important livelihood options for people residing in high mountain areas and has made a significant contribution to the economy of the Hindu Kush Himalayan（HKH） region, both in terms of supporting households and in export earnings. However, in recent decades, changes in the socioeconomic situation and increasing climate variability have led to a need to enhance adaptation by building the resilience of local socio-ecological systems, including economic diversification and sustainable management of natural resources. Based on semistructured interviews with pastoral communities in six countries within the pastoral HKH region, this paper discusses the situation, trends and driving forces behind the diversification of pastoral livelihood. For internal diversification the study highlights the need for enhancement of pastoral livelihoods through value-adding activities in the pastoral sectors. For external diversification changes on policy changes are needed to support free out-migration, market exploitation, and multiple resource use. Finally the paper highlights the role of education in determining household adaptation strategies in the face of various socio-ecological pressures and recommends integrating innovative and indigenous knowledge to develop appropriate methods for risk management and resource management in the pastoral HKH region.  相似文献   

15.
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16.
The total organic carbon (TOC) content series from the lake sediment of Minqin Basin (100°57′–104°57′E, 37°48′–39°17′N) in northwestern China, which has a 10 000-year-long paleo-climatic proxy record, was used to analyze the Holocene climate changes in the local region. The proxy record was established in the Sanjiaocheng (SJC), Triangle Town in Chinese, Section (103°20′25″E, 39°00′38″N), which is located at the northwestern boundary of the present Asian summer monsoon in China, and is sensitive to global environmental and climate changes. Applying singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to the TOC series, principal climatic oscillations and periodical changes were studied. The results reveal 3 major patterns of climate change regulated by reconstructed components (RCs). The first pattern is natural long-term trend of climatic change in the local area (Minqin Basin), indicating a relatively wetter stage in early Holocene (starting at 9.5 kaBP), and a relatively dryer stage with a strong lake desiccation and a declined vegetation cover in mid-Holocene (during 7–6 kaBP). From 4.0 kaBP to the present, there has been a gradually decreasing trend in the third reconstructed component (RC3) showing that the local climate changed again into a dryer stage. The second pattern shows millennial-centennial scale oscillations containing cycles of 1 600 and 800 years that have been present throughout almost the entire Holocene period of the last 10 000 years. The third pattern is a millennial-centennial scale variation with a relatively smaller amplitude and unclear cycles showing a nonlinear interaction within the earth’s climate systems.  相似文献   

17.
江河湖泊等陆表水体在工农业生产、气候调节、生态系统维持等方面扮演着至关重要的角色。在气候变化与人类活动的作用下,陆表水体的空间分布始终在发生着变化,因而对其进行快速精准的时空变化监测对水资源管理与保护、未来气候变化预测等有着重要的意义。遥感技术为大范围水体动态监测提供了全新的技术手段,特别是在当前地球大数据背景下,水体提取算法不断改进,遥感数据源急剧增加,但缺乏对算法和数据演化过程的系统整理。鉴于此,本文对现有水体提取算法与遥感数据进行了综合梳理,归纳了单波段阈值法、多波段谱间关系法、水体指数与阈值法、支持向量机、随机森林、深度学习等常用算法的演变,以及遥感数据源由低（MODIS等）到中（Landsat等）和高（高分1/2号等）空间分辨率的发展过程,并在此基础上讨论了各算法与数据源在水体变化研究中的差异。此外,本文论述了数据处理平台由本地计算到高性能云计算平台（如谷歌地球引擎）的发展,云计算促进地表水变化研究由基于时间片段到基于时间序列连续过程分析的转变,以及云计算在大尺度范围的应用。最后,本文还对多源遥感数据融合与云计算平台的结合在地表水体连续变化监测中的应用进行了展望,并对不同类型水体提取的不确定性进行了讨论。  相似文献   

18.
青藏高原脆弱的高寒植被对外界干扰十分敏感,使其成为研究植被对气候变化响应的理想区域之一。青藏高原气候变化剧烈,在较短的合成时间研究气候变化对植被的影响十分必要。因此,本文利用GIMMS NDVI时间序列数据集,研究了1982-2012年青藏高原生长季月尺度植被生长的时空动态变化,探讨了其与气温、降水量和日照时数等气候因子的响应关系。结果表明：在区域尺度上,除8月外,其他各月份植被均呈增加趋势,显著增加多发生在4-7月和9月;大部分月份的NDVI增加速率随着时段的延长显著减小,表明NDVI增加趋势放缓;在像元尺度上,月NDVI显著变化的区域多呈增加趋势,但显著减少范围的扩张多快于显著增加。4月和7月植被生长主要是受气温和日照时数共同作用,6月和9月受气温的控制,而8月则主要受降水量的影响。长时间序列NDVI数据集的出现为采用嵌套时段研究植被生长变化趋势奠定了前提,而植被活动变化趋势的持续性则有助于形象表征植被活动变化过程、深入理解植被对气候变化的响应和预测植被未来生长变化趋势。由此推测,青藏高原月NDVI未来增加趋势总体上趋于缓和,但在像元尺度显著变化的区域趋于增加。  相似文献   

19.
In mountain ecosystems, plants are sensitive to climate changes, and an entire range of species distribution can be observed in a small area. Therefore, mountains are of great interest for climate-growth relationship analysis. In this study, the Siberian spruce’s (Picea obovata Ledeb.) radial growth and its climatic response were investigated in the Western Sayan Mountains, near the Sayano-Shushenskoe Reservoir. Sampling was performed at three sites along an elevational gradient: at the lower border of the species range, in the middle, and at the treeline. Divergence of growth trends between individual trees was observed at each site, with microsite landscape-soil conditions as the most probable driver of this phenomenon. Cluster analysis of individual tree-ring width series based on inter-serial correlation was carried out, resulting in two sub-set chronologies being developed for each site. These chronologies appear to have substantial differences in their climatic responses, mainly during the cold season. This response was not constant due to regional climatic change and the local influence of the nearby Sayano-Shushenskoe Reservoir. The main response of spruce to growing season conditions has a typical elevational pattern expected in mountains: impact of temperature shifts with elevation from positive to negative, and impact of precipitation shifts in the opposite direction. Chronologies of trees, growing under more severe micro-conditions, are very sensitive to temperature during September-April and to precipitation during October-December, and they record both inter-annual and long-term climatic variation. Consequently, it would be interesting to test if they indicate the Siberian High anticyclone, which is the main driver of these climatic factors.  相似文献   

20.
土地利用和气候变化对海河流域蒸散发时空变化的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
蒸散发（ET）是水文能量循环和气候系统的关键环节,研究ET的时空变化特征及其响应土地利用和气候变化的驱动机制对于理清流域水资源和气候变化的关系具有重要的意义。本文基于MOD16/ET数据集定量分析了海河流域2000-2014年ET的时空变化特征,并结合时序气温降水数据和土地利用数据,采用相关分析方法定量探索了ET与气候因子的驱动力关系。结果表明：① 海河流域2000-2014年ET表现为较为显著的空间分布格局,呈现出北部和南部高、西北部和中东部低的分布特性。不同土地利用类型的多年ET呈林地>草地>耕地>其他类型的特征;② 2000-2014年海河流域年均ET波动范围为371.96~441.29 mm/a,多年ET的均值为398.69 mm/a,平均相对变化率为-0.41%,整体呈下降趋势;③ 多年月ET与气温和降水均呈单峰型周期性变化趋势,年内月ET呈单峰变化趋势;④ 春秋两季的ET与降水和气温的相关性明显高于其他季节,ET与气温和降水的平均相关系数是-0.17和0.37,表明降水对于ET的响应程度强于气温;⑤ 驱动分区结果表明海河流域ET受气候因子驱动的主要类型是降水驱动型和降水、气温共同驱动型;⑥ 海河流域耕地ET变化气候因子驱动模式主要是降水、气温共同驱动型;林地、草地的驱动模式主要气温驱动型和降水驱动型,其他土地利用类型的驱动模式主要是受其他因素驱动。该研究将对海河流域水资源开发管理和区域气候调节起到科学指导作用。  相似文献   

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