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1.
The possibility to use the observations of the total ozone values in the atmosphere (TO) in the end of polar winters as the
indicator of the cold accumulation in the troposphere and the type of its circulation is considered. The influence of TO over
polar regions on the approach of early and late circulation reconstructions in the stratosphere and the following weather
type in spring-summer season is concluded. 相似文献
2.
There is significant potential in young talent for enhancing the credibility of the scientific assessments such as the IPCC’s by contributing to quality assurance and quality control. In this essay, we reflect on an experiment that was done by the Dutch government as part of its government review of a contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). In an effort to review the entire Working Group II contribution to the AR5 within the official review period for the Second Order Draft (SOD), the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency turned to PhD students. This article shows that a systematic review focusing on transparency and errors of a large scientific assessment document using young talented scientists can be successful if certain conditions are met. The reviewers need to have intrinsic motivation to conduct the review. There needs to be a communication plan that fosters engagement and a clear methodology to guide the reviewers through their task. Based on this experiment in review, we reflect on the wider potential for openness and crowdsourcing in scientific assessment processes such as the IPCC’s. 相似文献
3.
Amplitude—Phase Characteristics of the Annual Cycle of Surface Air Temperature in the Northern Hemisphere 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The amplitude-phase characteristics(APC)of surface air temperature(SAT)annual cycle(AC)in the Northern Hemisphere are analyzed.From meteorological observations for the 20th century and meteorological reanalyses for its second half,it is found that over land negative correlation of SAT ACamplitude with annual mean SAT dominates.Nevertheless,some exceptions exist.The positive correlationbetween these two variables is found over the two desert regions:in northern Africa and in Central America.Areas of positive correlations are also found for the northern Pacific and for the tropical Indian and PacificOceans.Southward of the characteristic annual mean snow-ice boundary (SIB) position,the shape ofthe SAT AC becomes more sinusoidal under climate warming.In contrast,northward of it,this shapebecomes less sinusoidal.The latter iS also found for the above-mentioned two desert regions.In theFar East(southward of about 50°N),the SAT AC shifts as a whole:here its spring and autumn phasesoccur earlier if the annual 相似文献
4.
Summary The Bise is one of several regional winds in the Alpine area occuring in connection with postfrontal pressure rise and cold air advection. Like the Mistral, the Bise is also induced by a synoptiscale 850hPa pressure gradient (dp/dn
(NESW)1 hPa/100 km) and strongly determined by orographic effects.Apart from the classical postfrontal Bise in Spring, a deep Bise with strong cold air advection and sometimes rain appears during winter. A rough survey of the factors determining the wind profile during Bise, which is quite often characterized by a low-level jet structure, shows that dynamical effects induced by the topography like flow splitting, channeling and the formation of countercurrents may be very important.With 11 Figures 相似文献
5.
An OGCM Simulation of Seasonal and Interannual Variabilities in the Surface—Layer Pacific of the Equatorial Band 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The heat budget is analyzed in the surface-layer (0-50 m) Pacific of the equatorial band (10°S-10°N),using the simulation of an ocean general circulation model from 1945 to 1993. The analysis indicates that downward net surface heat flux from the atmosphere and ocean advective heat fluxes play distinct roles in seasonal and interannual variabilities of surface-layer ocean temperature. The surface heat flux dominantly determines the ocean temperature in the seasonal time-scale. But, it has a negative feedback to the ocean temperature in the interannual time-scale. The interannual variability of ocean temperature is largely associated with the cold advection from off-equatorial divergent flow in the central Pacific and from upwelling in the cold tongue. Both the surface heat flux and ocean advective heat fluxes are important to the ocean temperature during an El Nino event. The ocean advective heat fluxes are further associated with local westward trade wind in the central Pacific. These results are largely consistent with some regional observational analyses. 相似文献
6.
Thresholds of hydrologic flow regime of a river and investigation of climate change impact—the case of the Lower Brahmaputra river Basin 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The sustainability of social-ecological systems depends on river flows being maintained within a range to which those systems are adapted. In order to determine the extent of this natural range of variation, we assess ecological flow thresholds and the occurrence of potentially damaging flood events to society in the context of the Lower Brahmaputra river basin. The ecological flow threshold was calculated using twenty-two ‘Range of Variability (RVA)’ parameters, considering the range between?±?1 standard deviation from the mean of the natural flow. Damaging flood events were calculated using flood frequency analysis of Annual Maxima series and using the flood classification of Bangladesh. The climate change impacts on future river flow were calculated by using a weighted ensemble analysis of twelve global circulation models (GCMs) outputs driving a large-scale hydrologic model. The simulated climate change induced altered flow regime of the Lower Brahmaputra River Basin was then investigated and compared with the calculated threshold flows. The results demonstrate that various parameters including the monthly mean of low flow (January, February and March) and high flow (June, July and August) periods, the 7-day average minimum flow, and the yearly maximum flow will exceed the threshold conditions by 1956–1995 under the business-as-usual A1B and A2 future scenarios. The results have a number of policy level implications for government agencies of the Lower Brahmaputra River Basin, specifically for Bangladesh. The calculated thresholds may be used as a good basis for negotiations with other riparian countries of the basin. The methodological approach presented in this study can be applied to other river basins and provide a useful basis for transboundary water resources management. 相似文献
7.
8.
Gustavo Angel Maddonni 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,107(3-4):325-345
A simple method of analysis was proposed to characterize the impact of climatic conditions of a wide region of Argentina (from 27°05′S to 35°48′S, from 61°5′W to 64°21′W) on potential maize (Zea mays L.) grain yield, and the occurrence of various climatic constraints (low temperatures and low soil water content, frost, drought stress and heat stress) along the cycle. The analysis was based on previous studies of the eco-physiology of maize crops and the use of climatic records of six locations in the region under study. Results were analyzed using a probabilistic method, later organized as a checklist to consider when deciding on sowing date in a location of the region. Thus, for each production scenario (combination of location and sowing date), farmers would have a tool enabling them to pay particular attention to the restrictions more likely to occur, to include some cultural practices to avoid or mitigate the most severe climatic constraint to maize production. 相似文献
9.
In this paper,a relatively systematic climatological research on the onset of the Asian tropical summer monsoon(ATSM)was carried out.Based on a unified index of the ATSM onset,the advance of the whole ATSM was newly made and then the view that the ATSM firstly breaks out over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and the middle and southern Indo-China Peninsula was further documented,which was in the 26th pentad(about May 10),then over the South China Sea(SCS)in the 28th pentad.It seems that the ATSM onset over the two regions belongs to the different stages of the same monsoon system.Then,the onset mechanism of ATSM was further investigated by the comprehensive analysis on the land-sea thermodynamic contrast,intraseasonal oscillation,and so on,and the several key factors which influence the ATSM onset were put forward.Based on these results,a possible climatological schematic map that the ATSM firstly breaks out over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean,the Indo-China Peninsula,and the SCS was also presented, namely seasonal evolution of the atmospheric circulation was the background of the monsoon onset;the enhancement and northward advance of the convections,the sensible heating and latent heating over the Indo-China Peninsula and its neighboring areas,the dramatic deepening of the India-Burma trough,and the westerly warm advection over the eastern Tibetan Plateau were the major driving forces of the summer monsoon onset,which made the meridional gradient of the temperature firstly reverse over this region and ascending motion develop.Then the tropical monsoon and precipitation rapidly developed and enhanced. The phase-lock of the 30-60-day and 10-20-day low frequency oscillations originated from different sources was another triggering factor for the summer monsoon onset.It was just the common effect of these factors that induced the ATSM earliest onset over this region. 相似文献
10.
<正>Global warming has been one of the biggest issues faced by the world in recent decades.It is closely related to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases(GHGs)—mainly CO_2,CH_4 and N_2O—and the effects of reducing emissions and increasing the carbon fixation capability.China,as a large country with rapid economic and social development,has a major 相似文献
11.
The Charney model is reexamined using a new mathematical tool, the multiscale window transform(MWT), and the MWT-based localized multiscale energetics analysis developed by Liang and Robinson to deal with realistic geophysical fluid flow processes. Traditionally, though this model has been taken as a prototype of baroclinic instability, it actually undergoes a mixed one. While baroclinic instability explains the bottom-trapped feature of the perturbation, the second extreme center in the perturbation field can only be explained by a new barotropic instability when the Charney–Green number γ 1, which takes place throughout the fluid column, and is maximized at a height where its baroclinic counterpart stops functioning.The giving way of the baroclinic instability to a barotropic one at this height corresponds well to the rectification of the tilting found on the maps of perturbation velocity and pressure. Also established in this study is the relative importance of barotropic instability to baroclinic instability in terms of γ. When γ 1, barotropic instability is negligible and hence the system can be viewed as purely baroclinic; when γ 1, however, barotropic and baroclinic instabilities are of the same order;in fact, barotropic instability can be even stronger. The implication of these results has been discussed in linking them to real atmospheric processes. 相似文献
12.
In 2008 the US amended the century-old US Lacey Act to prohibit the import of illegally harvested or traded timber. Together with similar policies in the EU and Australia, this initialized a paradigm shift in global forest governance towards a legality (verification) regime that could substantially contribute to environmental and social stewardship in the forest sector. The analysis of the formation and implementation of these new policies in the US, Europe and Australia is, however, only just beginning.Based on 31 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, 19 informal conversations, more than 100 documents, and participant observation data, we analyze the policy making and implementation of the 2008 US Lacey Act amendment. Our results suggest two essential drivers for this policy change: (1) the deployment of discursive divide-and-conquer strategies and (2) a shift away from sustainability to legality, on both the international level and in the US. Based on the Discursive Agency Approach, we illustrate how carefully deployed discursive and governance strategies were crucial for building a coalition between environmentalists and parts of the wood (products) industry. This coalition was able to create a powerful storyline that muted the opposition and presented a politically attractive amendment proposal. We further show how these strategies have significant effects on the perception of the amended Lacey Act and its implementation. During implementation, coalitions as well as discursive and governance strategies shifted substantially but were still determined by the pre-amendment policy discourse. We conclude by exploring the importance of our findings for what we might expect from the concept of legality in global forest and environmental governance. 相似文献
13.
14.
Influences of the Clearness Index on UV Solar Radiation for Two Locations in the Tibetan Plateau——Lhasa and Haibei 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
HU Bo WANG Yuesi and LIU Guangren State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics Atmospheric Chemistry 《大气科学进展》2008,(5)
Ultraviolet (UV) solar radiation has a significant influence on human health, the environment and climate. A series of measurements, including UV radiation (290-400 nm) and global solar radiation (Rs), were continuously recorded from August 2004 at the Lhasa and Haibei sites on the Tibetan Plateau. Both observation sites' altitudes are above 3000 m and have similar meteorological conditions. The data from 2005-2006 was used to identify the varying characteristics of UV radiation. It's relation to the clearness index Ks, the relative optical mass mr, and Rs were established. The annual mean values of total daily UV radiation are 0.92 and 0.67 MJ m-2 at Lhasa and Haibei, respectively. The UV radiation in Lhasa represented 4.6% of the global solar radiation while in Haibei this percentage was 4.2%. In the case of clear days (Ks > 0.8), these percentages ranged between 4.0% and 4.5% in Lhasa and between 5.1% and 5.5% in Haibei. In the case of cloudy days (Ks < 0.4), these percentages ranged from 4.4% to 6.8% in Lhasa and from 5.1% to 5.5% in Haibei. The maximum values of UV radiation for each relative optical mass diminished exponentially with mr. Thus, for Lhasa and Haibei, UV=46.25m-r 1.29, and UV=51.76m-r 1.42, respectively. The results of this study can be used to obtain more UV radiation data for the study of UV climate characteristics, the effects of UV on ecological processes and the feedback of the thinning of the stratospheric ozone, from more routine measurements Rs data. 相似文献
15.
采用一系列高分辨率的卫星资料研究了我国东部海区的海洋温度锋对局地大气的强迫作用及其季节变化.分析表明,当春季海洋锋增强时,海温与海表面风速之间存在明显的正相关关系,并且在海洋锋的暖(冷)侧形成海表风的辐合(辐散),表现为海洋对大气的强迫作用.海温对表面风场的影响程度与海洋锋的强度成正比,春季影响程度最大,夏、秋季最小.海洋锋对其附近的总降水、对流、层云降水均有影响,尤其在春季海洋锋暖侧的降水强度增大,对流降水的频次增多,“雨顶”高度也有明显的抬升.暖流对大气的影响不仅局限在边界层,其影响可达整个对流层.另外,分析发现对流降水对海温的响应比层云降水更加敏感.研究还表明,暖流上空高、低云呈现相反的年循环特点,冬季多0.5～2 km的边界层云,夏季多云底在10 km以上的高云.深对流云集中出现在3～6月,从冬季到初夏,30％以上的云量中心抬高了接近8km.春季和初夏在海洋锋的暖侧频繁地出现深对流活动. 相似文献
16.
Refining rainfall projections for the Murray Darling Basin of south-east Australia—the effect of sampling model results based on performance 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
One of the aims of developing new climate projections is to better address the requirements of stakeholders—particularly those who require less uncertainty and/or probabilistic information to work with. Projections are continually updated over time as more, and newer, climate model simulations of the future become available but this can introduce problems when it comes to interpreting large samples with differing results. Regional projections of rainfall are characterised by a high level of uncertainty, partly because of different sensitivities of the different models. Some models can be demonstrated to perform relatively poorly when assessed by their ability to simulate present-day means and variability and here we show that the uncertainty in model projections can potentially be reduced when the projection from these models are either discounted or ignored entirely. When applied to the Murray Darling Basin of south east Australia, it is possible to demonstrate a clustering of the results from the better performing models. These indicate that the rainfall changes to be expected as a result of increased greenhouse gas concentrations into the future are more likely to be at the drier end of the full set of model results. This occurs because the better performing models indicate decreases in winter and spring which are significantly different to the changes indicated by the other models. These results suggest that there are compelling reasons for discounting, if not entirely dismissing, some model results based on their failure to satisfy some basic performance criteria. 相似文献
17.
Gunnar Luderer Valentina Bosetti Michael Jakob Marian Leimbach Jan C. Steckel Henri Waisman Ottmar Edenhofer 《Climatic change》2012,114(1):9-37
This paper synthesizes the results from the model intercomparison exercise among regionalized global energy-economy models conducted in the context of the RECIPE project. The economic adjustment effects of long-term climate policy are investigated based on the cross-comparison of the intertemporal optimization models ReMIND-R and WITCH as well as the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R. A number of robust findings emerge. If the international community takes immediate action to mitigate climate change, the costs of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 450?ppm (roughly 530?C550?ppm-e) discounted at 3% are estimated to be 1.4% or lower of global consumption over the twenty-first century. Second best settings with either a delay in climate policy or restrictions to the deployment of low-carbon technologies can result in substantial increases of mitigation costs. A delay of global climate policy until 2030 would render the 450?ppm target unachievable. Renewables and CCS are found to be the most critical mitigation technologies, and all models project a rapid switch of investments away from freely emitting energy conversion technologies towards renewables, CCS and nuclear. Concerning end use sectors, the models consistently show an almost full scale decarbonization of the electricity sector by the middle of the twenty-first century, while the decarbonization of non-electric energy demand, in particular in the transport sector remains incomplete in all mitigation scenarios. The results suggest that assumptions about low-carbon alternatives for non-electric energy demand are of key importance for the costs and achievability of very low stabilization scenarios. 相似文献
18.
The ordinary multidimensional reductive perturbation method is generalized so as to apply to the general case including the dissipative factor. With this the corresponding Cubic-Schrbdinger equation is deduced, and by the preliminary study of its solution, it shows that it is more admissible to consider atmospheric meso-scale systems as the nonlinear Cubic-Schrbdinger waves.With suitable boundary and initial conditions, the Cubic-Schrodinger equation is numerically integrated so as to investigate the possible dynamic mechanism as well as the impacts of the nonlinear action, turbulent friction and topogrphy to the formation of the LLJ. The results indicate that the downward transfer of the momentum and the effect of the surface friction are responsible for the concentration of the momentum in the layer between 850 and 700 hPa. The location of the horizontal concentration of momentum depends on the propagation of momentum, in the process the inertia-gravity internal wave is very important, whereas turbule 相似文献
19.
In order to study the characteristics of cold frontal motion over the arbitrary topography, the velocity of cold frontal movement is derived by using the one layer shallow-water model. The results show that there exist the retardation in upwind side and rapid descent in the lee slope when the cold front crosses the topography. 相似文献
20.
Evolution and Frontogenesis of an Imbalanced Flow —the Influence of Vapor Distribution and Orographic Forcing 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
1.InttoductionIftheinitialfieldsarenotingeostrophicbalance,theadjustmentandevolutionwilloccurinthestratifiedfluid,andthefrontogenesiswilloccurundersuitableconditions.ThisaspectwasfirstinvestigatedbyRossby(1938),followedbymanyscientists(Blumen,1972;Gill,1976,1982;VanHeijst,1985;BossandThompson,1985;On,1984,1986;McWilliams,1988;Middleton,1987;Glendening,1993;BlumenandWu,1995;WuandBlumen,1995;Grimshaw1998;Blumen,1998;etc.).Intheseresearches,theenergyconversionratioy=AEk/BE,isaninterestin… 相似文献