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1.
利用多源气象要素数据估算了1998 - 2016年的藏北高寒牧区植被净初级生产力（Net Primary Productivity, NPP）的变化特征并预估了其在2 ℃全球变暖背景下的变化趋势, 结果表明： 研究区域71.9%的NPP呈上升趋势, 仅中部部分区域有下降趋势; 平均NPP以每年0.54%速率增加, 同期气温和降水均呈增加趋势, NPP和气温在2007前后有显著增加趋势; 总体来说降水是影响NPP的最主要气候因子, 且随着纬度升高其影响越来越大, 气温对于NPP的影响从东南向西北依次递减, 在西北地区出现弱的负相关; 在2 ℃全球变暖大背景下, 分析得出IPCC“典型浓度路径”（Representative Concentration Pathways, 简称RCPs）三种温室气体排放情景下（RCP2.6、 RCP4.5、 RCP8.5）的NPP平均状态几乎没有变化, 其影响仅限于对研究区东南部的较高NPP有较小的改善作用, 其作用依次为
2.
气候变化对中国北方荒漠草原植被的影响 总被引：70，自引：2，他引：70
气候变化对陆地生态系统的影响及其反馈是全球变化研究的焦点之一。利用气候变量实现对遥感植被指数所表示的植被绿度信息的模拟，可以尝试作为表达生物圈过去和未来状态的一种途径。利用1961-2000年的气温、降水和1983-1999年的NOAA/AVHRR资料，分析了中国北方地带性植被类型荒漠草原植被分布区的短尺度气候的年际和季节变化，及其对植被的影响。结果表明，过去40年中该区域年际气候变化表现为增温和降水波动。年NDVI的最大值（NDVImax）可以较好地反映气候的变化，过去17年中NDVImax出现的时间略有提前。综合分析NDVI、植被盖度、NPP、区域蒸散量、土壤含水量及其气候的年际变化，表明增温加剧了土壤干旱化，降水和土壤含水量仍是制约本区植被生长的根本原因。 相似文献
3.
Climate change, particularly due to the changed precipitation trend, can have a severe impact on soil erosion. The effect is more pronounced on the higher slopes of the Himalayan region. The goal of this study was to estimate the impact of climate change on soil erosion in a watershed of the Himalayan region using RUSLE model. The GCM (general circulation model) derived emission scenarios (HadCM3 A2a and B2a SRES) were used for climate projection. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to downscale the precipitation for three future periods, 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099, at large scale. Rainfall erosivity (R) was calculated for future periods using the SDSM downscaled precipitation data. ASTER digital elevation model (DEM) and Indian Remote Sensing data – IRS LISS IV satellite data were used to generate the spatial input parameters required by RUSLE model. A digital soil-landscape map was prepared to generate spatially distributed soil erodibility (K) factor map of the watershed. Topographic factors, slope length (L) and steepness (S) were derived from DEM. Normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from the satellite data was used to represent spatial variation vegetation density and condition under various land use/land cover. This variation was used to represent spatial vegetation cover factor. Analysis revealed that the average annual soil loss may increase by 28.38, 25.64 and 20.33% in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively under A2 scenario, while under B2 scenario, it may increase by 27.06, 25.31 and 23.38% in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, from the base period (1985–2013). The study provides a comprehensive understanding of the possible future scenario of soil erosion in the mid-Himalaya for scientists and policy makers. 相似文献
4.
1971—2000年中国陆地植被净初级生产力的模拟 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
利用植被与大气相互作用模式(AVIM),基于气象台站的观测资料模拟了1971—2000年中国陆地生态系统NPP的变化特征.结果表明:1971—2000年我国陆地植被年均NPP变化范围在0~987.67 gC·m-2·a-1,全国平均值为349.74 gC·m-2·a-1,30 a呈现出递增的变化趋势.对各类植被NPP的模拟显示,最近30 a我国热带雨林、落叶阔叶林以及有地被层的阔叶林的年均NPP减小,而混交林、常绿针叶林、落叶针叶林、有裸土的灌丛、草地以及作物的年均NPP均为增加趋势.由于采用了先进的农业技术,与自然条件下我国作物的年均NPP变化相比,我国实际的粮食单产在上述时期呈显著的增长,表明了人类活动对于我国陆地植被净初级生产力有着深刻的影响. 相似文献
5.
Assessing vegetation dynamics impacted by climate change in the southwestern karst region of China with AVHRR NDVI and AVHRR NPP time-series 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
The relationship between climate change and vegetation dynamics in the southwestern karst region of China has been identified
by recent studies. Based on previous researches and AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) GIMMS (Global Inventory
Monitoring and Modeling Studies) NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) (1982–2003) and AVHRR GloPEM (Global Production
Efficiency Model) NPP (Net Primary Production) (1981–2000) datasets, vegetation dynamics impacted by climate change in the
southwestern karst region of China were assessed. The results show that: (1) since the early 1980s, both vegetation cover
density and net primary production have insignificant ascending tendencies. However, the inter-annual variation rates of vegetation
indexes have apparent spatial differentiations; (2) the correlation coefficients between the inter-annual variations of vegetation
indexes and the inter-annual variations of climate factors vary geographically; (3) as indicated by NDVI and NPP, various
vegetation types have different responses to climate change, and the annual mean temperature variation has more significant
impact on vegetation dynamics than the annual precipitation variation in the study area; (4) distribution laws of correlation
coefficients between the inter-annual variations of vegetation indexes and the inter-annual variations of climate factors
in different climate conditions are apparent. All these findings will enrich our knowledge of the natural forces which impact
the stability of the karst ecosystems and provide scientific basis for the management of the karst ecosystems. 相似文献
6.
本文对现有的区域植被动态模型进行了改进,改进后的模型包含了生态系统中生物量动态、植被结构动态、氮素循环过程三者之间的耦合,以及植被和土壤的相互作用.新模型的状态变量包括植被的绿色和非绿色生物量及其氮素浓度,3层土壤的水分,土壤的全氮和速效氮含量.利用全国范围内在过去数10年中定点观测生物量、生产力、土壤全氮和速效氮的含量、卫星遥感植被指数、全国植被图、地形图、土壤图等多方面的基础数据,我们进行了模型的参数化工作,并对模型做了初步验证.结果说明本模型能够比较准确地模拟当前气候条件下植被的生物量、生产力和氮素吸收等动态过程.在此基础上,我们将改进后的模型用于中国陆地生态系统对全球变化响应的研究.为此我们采用了7个大气环流模型的输出的降水和温度的改变量和大气CO2浓度加倍条件,结合现有气候条件,生成未来气候变化情景(scenarios),并用这些情景来驱动改进后的模型直到模型到达稳定状态.模拟结果说明:在未来气候变化条件下,温带常绿针叶林、亚热带山地常绿针叶林、落叶阔叶林、常绿阔叶林,典型禾草草原的分布将显著增加,而落叶针叶林、亚热带常绿针叶林、常绿灌木、禾草和半灌木草原、高寒禾草草甸的分布将有显著的下降,其他植被类型对全球变化的响应不太敏感.33°N以南,净第一性生产力将有显著增加,而33°N以北,净第一性生产力增加较少,局部地区生产力甚至下降.模拟的中国陆地生态系统的北部生产力比南部具有较大的变化和不确定范围.因此,从最大程度的减少和降低生态系统对气候变化响应的不确定程度出发,未来气候变化的研究的重点应该在北方. 相似文献
7.
This study investigates the implications of past and future land use change for two ecosystem services provided by terrestrial vegetation: net primary production, which is the basis of the food chain, and modulation of climate through exchanges of energy, water, and momentum between the land surface and atmosphere. At the global scale, the most extensive land use change over the past several centuries occurred in temperate areas with cropland expansion in fertile areas. This type of conversion has generally increased net primary production due to water and nutrient inputs to mechanized agriculture and cooled surface climate due to increased albedo. In contrast, future land use change is projected to occur predominantly in the humid tropics, with large reductions in net primary production and a warming effect due to decreased transpiration. In the past, the effects of land use change on NPP and surface climate are not substantially outside the range of decadal-scale interannual variability. Future land use change alters these ecosystem services outside this range. The consequences of land use change in the coming decades are likely to be fundamentally different than in the past. 相似文献
8.
Bing Wang Shengtian Yang Changwei Lü Jing Zhang Yujuan Wang 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2010,59(6):1337-1347
Green plants play an important role in energy flows and material cycles. The net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the capability
of vegetation to convert solar energy into photosynthate (fixed carbon). Understanding the factors that contribute to variations
in NPP is of key importance for improving the rock-desertification environment in karst areas. In this paper, the NPP model
(Light Use Efficiency model) is modified on the basis of remote sensing data [moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer
(MODIS)], climate data and observed information. Then the model is employed to estimate the spatial–temporal variations of
NPP in the Guizhou Province, China. Finally, the NPP differences between karst area and non-karst area, and the relationships
between NPP and climate factors are analyzed. The results show that the NPP estimated using MODIS data are reasonable. The
mean NPP of territorial vegetation is 421.46 gC m−2 year−1; the NPP in the non-karst area is 13.3% higher than that in the karst area; the correlation degree between NPP and precipitation
is better in southeastern and western districts. 相似文献
9.
全球变化研究中的中国东北森林—─草原陆地样带(NECT) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
陆地生态样带已成为全球变化研究的重要方法和手段。国际地圈－生物圈计划（ＩＧＢＰ）的陆地样带——中国东北森林—草原陆地样带（ＮＥＣＴ）的提出为中国全球变化研究奠定了基础。该样带在东经１１２°～１３０°３０′间沿北纬４３°３０′设置，长约１６００ｋｍ，是一条中纬度温带以降水为驱动因素的梯度，具有良好的植被、土壤、土地利用、气候等环境因素的过渡特征。文章介绍了中国东北森林—草原样带的确定、生态特征及在数据库建设、植被结构和生产力模拟以及遥感研究中取得的初步成果。 相似文献
10.
Groundwater is the main source of water in arid and semi-arid regions, so it is very important to recognize vulnerable parts of aquifer under future climate change conditions. In this research, 16 climate models were evaluated based on weighting approach. HADCM3 and CGCM2.3.2a models were selected for temperature and precipitation prediction, respectively. LARS-WG was used for downscaling AOGCMs outputs. Results show that temperature increase by 1.4 °C and precipitation changes between +10 and ?6 % under B1 and A2 emission scenario, respectively. Runoff volumes will decrease by ?39 % under A2 emission scenario whereas runoff volume will increase by +12 % under B1 emission scenario. Simulation of groundwater head variation by MODFLOW software indicates higher groundwater depletion rate under A2 scenario compared to B1 scenario. Groundwater model outputs indicate that the most vulnerable part of the aquifer is located in the southwest region. Large number of extraction wells and low aquifer transmissivity are the reasons for high vulnerability of the region. 相似文献
11.
12.
Yang Xiao-Hua Sun Bo-Yang Zhang Jian Li Mei-Shui He Jun Wei Yi-Ming Li Yu-Qi 《Natural Hazards》2015,76(1):63-81
Rapid population growth and increased economic activity impose an urgent challenge on the sustainability of water resources in Beijing. Water resources system is a complex uncertain system under climate change which is of vulnerability. But water resources system vulnerability research is relatively weak. In this study, we present a multifunctional hierarchy indicator system for the performance evaluation of water resources vulnerability (WRV) under climate change. We established an evaluation model, i.e., analytic hierarchy process combining set pair analysis (AHPSPA) model, for assessing WRV, in which weight is determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and the evaluation degrees are determined by the set pair analysis (SPA) theory. According to the principle of scientificalness, representative, completeness and operability, the index systems and standard of water resources vulnerability evaluation are established based on the analysis of sensibility and adaptability which include five subsystems: climate change, water resources change, social and economic infrastructure, water use level and water security capability. The AHPSPA model is used to assess water resource vulnerability in Beijing with 26 indexes under eight kinds of future climate change scenarios. Certain and uncertain information quantity of the WRV is calculated by connection numbers in the AHPSPA model. Results show that the WRV of Beijing is in the middle vulnerability (3 or III) under above-mentioned different climate change scenarios. The uncertain information is between 37.77 and 39.99 % in the WRV evaluation system in Beijing. Compared with present situation, the WRV will become better under scenario I and III and will become worse under scenario II, scenario IV, scenario representative concentration pathways (RCP)2.6, scenario RCP4.5, scenario RCP6.0 and scenario RCP8.5. In addition, we find that water resources change and water use level factors play more important role in the evaluation system of water resource vulnerability in Beijing. Finally, we make some suggestions for water resources management of Beijing.
相似文献13.
Loss caused by earthquakes: rapid estimates 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Frolova N. I. Larionov V. I. Bonnin J. Sushchev S. P. Ugarov A. N. Kozlov M. A. 《Natural Hazards》2016,84(1):63-76
Rapid population growth and increased economic activity impose an urgent challenge on the sustainability of water resources in Beijing. Water resources system is a complex uncertain system under climate change which is of vulnerability. But water resources system vulnerability research is relatively weak. In this study, we present a multifunctional hierarchy indicator system for the performance evaluation of water resources vulnerability (WRV) under climate change. We established an evaluation model, i.e., analytic hierarchy process combining set pair analysis (AHPSPA) model, for assessing WRV, in which weight is determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and the evaluation degrees are determined by the set pair analysis (SPA) theory. According to the principle of scientificalness, representative, completeness and operability, the index systems and standard of water resources vulnerability evaluation are established based on the analysis of sensibility and adaptability which include five subsystems: climate change, water resources change, social and economic infrastructure, water use level and water security capability. The AHPSPA model is used to assess water resource vulnerability in Beijing with 26 indexes under eight kinds of future climate change scenarios. Certain and uncertain information quantity of the WRV is calculated by connection numbers in the AHPSPA model. Results show that the WRV of Beijing is in the middle vulnerability (3 or III) under above-mentioned different climate change scenarios. The uncertain information is between 37.77 and 39.99 % in the WRV evaluation system in Beijing. Compared with present situation, the WRV will become better under scenario I and III and will become worse under scenario II, scenario IV, scenario representative concentration pathways (RCP)2.6, scenario RCP4.5, scenario RCP6.0 and scenario RCP8.5. In addition, we find that water resources change and water use level factors play more important role in the evaluation system of water resource vulnerability in Beijing. Finally, we make some suggestions for water resources management of Beijing. 相似文献
14.
基于AVIM的中国陆地生态系统净初级生产力模拟 总被引：34，自引：0，他引：34
利用AVIM（植被与大气相互作用模式）模拟了现代中国陆地生态系统NPP的分布并计算了全国NPP的碳总量。研究结果表明我国现代陆地生态系统的年NPP变化范围在0~1 389 gC/m2之间,年平均值为355 gC/m2,年吸收3.33 Pg的大气碳。中国陆地植被NPP呈现自东向西逐渐减小的趋势,NPP的最大值出现在云南西双版纳地区,最小值分布于青藏高原以及新疆地区。中国现代陆地植被NPP主要分布于小于100 gC/(m2·a)、300~500 gC/(m2·a)以及500~700 gC/(m2·a)3个区间,其占总计算值的比例都超过了20%以上;大于1 000 gC/(m2·a)的NPP最少,只占总数的2.15%。对中国陆地植被NPP与气候的相关性分析表明,降水是影响我国陆地生态系统NPP的主要原因。 相似文献
15.
Assessing climate change impacts on water balance in the Mount Makiling forest, Philippines 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A statistical downscaling known for producing station-scale climate information from GCM output was preferred to evaluate the impacts of climate change within the Mount Makiling forest watershed, Philippines. The lumped hydrologic BROOK90 model was utilized for the water balance assessment of climate change impacts based on two scenarios (A1B and A2) from CGCM3 experiment. The annual precipitation change was estimated to be 0.1–9.3% increase for A1B scenario, and ?3.3 to 3.3% decrease/increase for the A2 scenario. Difference in the mean temperature between the present and the 2080s were predicted to be 0.6–2.2°C and 0.6–3.0°C under A1B and A2 scenarios, respectively. The water balance showed that 42% of precipitation is converted into evaporation, 48% into streamflow, and 10% into deep seepage loss. The impacts of climate change on water balance reflected dramatic fluctuations in hydrologic events leading to high evaporation losses, and decrease in streamflow, while groundwater flow appeared unaffected. A study on the changes in monthly water balance provided insights into the hydrologic changes within the forest watershed system which can be used in mitigating the effects of climate change. 相似文献
16.
17.
人类活动和气候变化严重改变了黄河水文情势和生态径流,分析未来气候变化对河流生态的影响对流域水资源管理和长期规划意义重大。本文对第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）的13个全球气候模式数据进行偏差订正,驱动水文模型进行径流模拟,应用流量历时曲线方法分析SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5情景下2026年至21世纪末年、季节尺度的花园口生态径流变化。结果表明:订正能明显降低降水、气温模拟偏差;人类活动严重影响了1986-2010年花园口生态径流;2026-2100年年均气温和年降水量增加趋势显著,低排放情景增速慢,高排放情景增速快;气候变化可在一定程度上缓解水库调控、水土保持等人类活动对生态径流的负面影响,SSP5-8.5情景缓解程度最高,冬季缓解程度最高,夏、秋季最低。 相似文献
18.
Response of groundwater chemistry to water deliveries in the lower reaches of Tarim River,Northwest China 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Yongjin Chen Kefa Zhou Yaning Chen Weihong Li Jiazhen Liu Tao Wang 《Environmental Geology》2008,53(6):1365-1373
In this paper, we analysed the monitored data from nine groundwater-monitoring transects in the lower reaches of Tarim River
during the five times of stream water deliveries to the river transect where the stream flow ceased. The results showed that
the groundwater depth in the lower reaches of Tarim River rose from −9.30 m before the conveyances to −8.17 and −6.50 m after
the first and second conveyances, −5.81 and −6.00 m after the third and fourth the conveyance, and −4.73 m after the fifth.
The horizontal extent of groundwater recharge was gradually enlarged along both sides of the channel of conveyance, i.e.,
from 250 m in width after the first conveyance to 1,050 m away from the channel after the fourth delivery. With the rising
groundwater level, the concentrations of major anions Cl−, SO42− and cations Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, as well as total dissolved solids (TDS) in groundwater underwent a significant change. The spatial variations in groundwater
chemistry indicated that the groundwater chemistry at the transect near Daxihaizi Reservoir changed earlier than that farther
from it. In the same transect, the chemical variations were earlier in the monitoring well close to watercourse than that
farther away from the stream. In general, the concentration of the major ions and TDS at each monitoring well increased remarkably
when the water delivery started, and decreased with the continued water delivery, and then increased once again at the end
of the study period. Hence, the whole study period may be divided into three stages: the initial stage, the intermediate stage
and the later stage. According to the three stages of groundwater chemistry reaction to water delivery and the relationships
between groundwater chemical properties and groundwater depths, we educe that under the situation of water delivery, the optimum
groundwater depth in the lower reaches of the Tarim River should be −5 m. 相似文献
19.
Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia, as the top rice production area of high quality and quantity, has a long history in rice planting. The studies of the effective measures for the rice production replying the climate change were very important for reducing the harm of the future climate change and crop supply safety in Ningxia Province. Based on the coupling of the PRECIS model and the crop model CERES Rice, the effects of climate change on the rice production and growth stage in Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia Province were simulated and evaluated, and the adaptability measures of rice production were studied. The results showed that the CERES Rice model had the preferable simulation capability, and the modified PRECIS model also could preferably simulate the required climate parameter. The crop model simulation results showed that the climate change had some influence on the rice production and growth stage in Yinhuang Irrigation District. The rice production goes down under future climate change scenarios in Ningxia Province. The trend of reduction of 2050s is more apparent than that of 2020s under the same scenarios,but the spatial change trend is similar. The extent and range of reduction of A2 scenario are wider than that of B2 scenario in the same period, but spatial change trend is different. For the change of growth stage, there has no obvious change in the north and the central part of the Yinhuang Irrigation District. The duration in 2050s shortens more obviously than that of 2020s under the same scenario, and the duration under B2 scenario shortens more obviously than that under A2 scenario in the same period. The results of adjusting the sowing date and the rice variety parameter G4 showed that the negative impact of climate change on the rice production can be reduced by sowing date advance in Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia Province. There has obvious difference for the optimal G4 values of different region in Yinhuang Irrigation District, and the rice production can also be effectively upraised by adjusting the rice variety characteristic and cultivating the heat resistant rice varieties. The optimal G4 values can mitigate the damage of climate change on the rice production in Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia Province. 相似文献
20.
在气候变化、生态保护以及水资源调控影响下,西北内陆河流域水循环和生态环境状态发生了显著改变,迫切需要解答气候变化对植被恢复和产水量的影响,调水和压采等措施下地下水水位动态、管控指标及其对生态环境的维持机制。为此,文章阐述了内陆河流域气候-植被-土壤-水文相互作用机理以及上中下游演变状况。针对上游产水区,提出了山区气候变... 相似文献