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1.
It has become possible to apply efficiently Beaumont and Berger’s idea (1974) about the possibility to predict earthquakes using continuous monitoring of temporal variations of the tidal response only in recent years, with the appearance of GPS data on the field of the Earth’s surface displacements in seismic regions, as well as with the appearance of the Global Seismographic Network (GSN) containing the tidal tiltmetric and gravimetric data in the vicinities of the epicenters of strong earthquakes in Peru (2001), Sumatra (2004), and Chile (2010) before and after the strongest seismic events. Below, we present the results of the modeling of temporal variations of the tidal response of the environment in the vicinities of the focus of catastrophic earthquakes. The model of the focus includes data on the expansion and orientation of the fault surface, as well as on the discontinuity of the tangential component of the displacement vector on the opposite shores. The model is constructed from the GPS data on horizontal and vertical displacements of the Earth’s surface.  相似文献   

2.

The idea of predicting earthquakes by continuously monitoring temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium was suggested by Beaumont and Berger in 1974. However, it became possible to implement the idea only recently. This possibility has arisen due to the deployment of Global Seismic Network (GSN), which collects the data on tidal tilts and gravity in the epicenters of strong earthquakes before and after the strongest events. In this paper, we present the results of model analytical and numerical calculations of the elastic displacements of the Earth’s surface caused by the earthquakes and their preparatory processes. The analytical calculations are limited to the model of a uniform elastic halfspace; the numerical calculations, in addition to this model, also cover the models with radially heterogeneous distributions of elastic moduli in the crust and in the upper mantle, which are determined by the PREM model. We describe the results of modeling temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium in the vicinity of the source of a catastrophic earthquake. The model of seismic source is specified by the length and the orientations of the fault plane and by the value of the discontinuity in the tangential component of the displacement vector on the opposite sides of the fault. The model is based on the GPS data on the horizontal and vertical displacements of the Earth’s surface. We suggest the method for determining temporal changes in the tidal response of the medium in the seismically active regions. This method improves the sensitivity and time resolution of the standard techniques of sliding-window analysis by more than an order of magnitude. The comparative analysis of temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium in the zones of the magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan (March 9, 2011) illustrates the described approach.

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3.
The idea of predicting earthquakes by continuously monitoring temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium was suggested by Beaumont and Berger in 1974. However, it became possible to implement the idea only recently. This possibility has arisen due to the deployment of Global Seismic Network (GSN), which collects the data on tidal tilts and gravity in the epicenters of strong earthquakes before and after the strongest events. In this paper, we present the results of model analytical and numerical calculations of the elastic displacements of the Earth??s surface caused by the earthquakes and their preparatory processes. The analytical calculations are limited to the model of a uniform elastic halfspace; the numerical calculations, in addition to this model, also cover the models with radially heterogeneous distributions of elastic moduli in the crust and in the upper mantle, which are determined by the PREM model. We describe the results of modeling temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium in the vicinity of the source of a catastrophic earthquake. The model of seismic source is specified by the length and the orientations of the fault plane and by the value of the discontinuity in the tangential component of the displacement vector on the opposite sides of the fault. The model is based on the GPS data on the horizontal and vertical displacements of the Earth??s surface. We suggest the method for determining temporal changes in the tidal response of the medium in the seismically active regions. This method improves the sensitivity and time resolution of the standard techniques of sliding-window analysis by more than an order of magnitude. The comparative analysis of temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium in the zones of the magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan (March 9, 2011) illustrates the described approach.  相似文献   

4.
《Continental Shelf Research》2005,25(9):1115-1131
Tidal inlet characteristics are controlled by wave energy, tidal range, tidal prism, sediment supply and direction and rates of sand delivered to the inlet. This paper deals with the relations between inlet and lagoon evolutions, linked by the tidal prism. Our study is focused on the Maumusson Inlet and the Marennes-Oléron Bay (first oyster farming area in Europe), located on the western coast of France. The tidal range (2–6 m) and wave climate (mean height: 1.5 m) place this tidal inlet system in the mixed energy (tide, waves), tide-dominated category. The availability of high-resolution bathymetric data since 1824 permits to characterise and quantify accurately morphological changes of both the inlet and the tidal bay. Since 1824, sediment filling of the tidal bay has led to a 20% decrease in its water volume, and a 35% reduction of the inlet throat section. Furthermore, the bay is subjected to a very high anthropic pressure, mainly related to oyster farming. Thus, both natural and human-related processes seem relevant to explain high sedimentation rates. Current measurements, hydrodynamic modelling and cross-sectional area of the inlet throat are used in order to quantify tidal prism changes since 1824. Both flood and ebb tidal prism decreased by 35%. Decrease in the Marennes-Oléron Bay water volume is inferred to be responsible for a part of tidal prism decrease at the inlet. Tidal prisms decrease may also be explained by an increase in frictional resistance to tidal wave propagation, due to a general shoaling and oyster farms in the bay. A conceptual model is proposed, taking into account natural and human-related sedimentation processes, and explaining tidal inlet response to tidal bay evolutions.  相似文献   

5.
Analyses of independent laboratory- and field-scale measurements from two sites on Sapelo Island, Georgia reveal heterogeneity in hydraulic parameters across the upland–estuary interface. Regardless of the method used (short-duration pumping tests, amplitude attenuation of tidal pumping data, sediment grain size distributions, and falling head permeameter tests), we obtain hydraulic conductivity of 10−4 m s−1 for the fine-grained, well-sorted, clean sands that make up the upland areas. Proximal to the upland–estuary boundary, the tidal pumping analyses and permeameter tests suggest that hydraulic conductivities decrease by more than two orders of magnitude, a result consistent with the presence of a clogging layer. Such a clogging layer may arise due to a variety of physical, chemical, or biological processes. The extent and orientation of the layers of reduced hydraulic conductivity near the upland–estuary boundary influence the nature of the aquifer's response to tidal forcing. Where the lower conductivity layer forms a relatively flat creek bank, tidal pumping produces a primarily mechanical response in the adjacent aquifer. Where the creek bank is nearly vertical, there is a more direct hydraulic connection between the tidal creek and the adjacent aquifer. The clogging layer likely contributes to the development of complicated flow pathways across the upland–estuary boundary. Effective flow paths calculated from tidal pumping data terminate within the marsh, beyond the boundary of the upland aquifer, suggesting a diffuse regime of groundwater discharge in the marsh. We postulate that, in many settings, submarsh flow may be as important as seepage faces for groundwater discharge into the marsh–estuary complex.  相似文献   

6.
 The role of seamounts in the formation and evolution of sea ice is investigated in a series of numerical experiments with a coupled sea ice–ocean model. Bottom topography, stratification and forcing are configured for the Maud Rise region in the Weddell Sea. The specific flow regime that develops at the seamount as the combined response to steady and tidal forcing consists of free and trapped waves and a vortex cap, which is caused by mean flow and tidal flow rectification. The enhanced variability through tidal motion in particular modifies the mixed layer above the seamount enough to delay and reduce sea-ice formation throughout the winter. The induced sea-ice anomaly spreads and moves westward and affects an area of several 100 000 km2. Process studies reveal the complex interaction between wind, steady and periodic ocean currents: all three are required in the process of generation of the sea ice and mixed layer anomalies (mainly through tidal flow), their detachment from the topography (caused by steady oceanic flow) and the westward translation of the sea-ice anomaly (driven by the time-mean wind).  相似文献   

7.
In this paper,the mechanical response of saturated geological rock under tidal force is explored by poroelastic theory.First,we use the free energy formula of saturated rock under a tidal force to study the relationships of pore pressure with stress,and stress with strain.Then we analyze the relationship between rock strain and tidal potential by the equilibrium differential equations of saturated rock under tidal force.Finally,we derive the physical relationship between the two parameters (pore pressure and tidal mean stress) of saturated rock and tidal potential.The relationship shows that:pore pressure is directly proportional with tidal potential,but tidal mean stress of saturated rock is inversely proportional with tidal potential.The ratio coefficient is related not only to the Lame coefficients of rock skeletons,but also to the Biot modulus.By using this model to analyze observational well water level of C-18 well which locates in Huili,Sichuan Province,the well level response coefficient (D) was estimated.This way,we derive the Skempton coefficient (B),the coefficient A and C which refer to the response coefficients of pore pressure and tidal stress to tidal potential respectively.Then we compare the differences among each coefficient in coupling and uncoupling conditions.It shows that for saturated rocks,the response of stress and pore pressure to earth tides is a product of coupling,and it is necessary to take into account the coupling effect when we study the mechanical response.The model will provide the basis not only for the study of mechanics and hydrodynamics of well-confined aquifer systems,and the mechanics of faulting under tidal force,but also for quantitative research of the triggering mechanism of tidal forces.  相似文献   

8.
Variations in the water level in boreholes emerge in response to tidal, baric, and tectonic forcing. We analyze the data on atmospheric pressure and water level recorded in the boreholes located in the mid-latitude Eurasia (45°?C55°N) from Western Europe (Belgium, Uccle), Siberia (coastal area of Lake Baikal, Talaya River) to Far Eastern Russia (the Bychikha borehole near Khabarovsk and the boreholes on the Kamchatka Peninsula and Kurils). The response of the water level in a borehole to periodic tidal and baric impacts is investigated. In this case, water level variations reflect areal (lateral) and vertical deformations, which allows estimating the elastic moduli and porosity of the confined aquifer in a static model. Measurements in the boreholes drilled in the fractured solid rock enable determining the geometric parameters of the fractures. The possibility to apply the method for evaluating tectonic deformations is discussed. Application of tidal coefficients of boreholes for determining the coseismic deformation is demonstrated by the example of the Kultuk earthquake (Lake Baikal, August 27, 2008, M = 6.3).  相似文献   

9.
Interactions of tidal constituents and the transfer of energy from the tidal frequencies to other frequencies are investigated using 3-D tidal simulations for the Indonesian seas, focusing on an area of active internal tides. Semidiurnal tides strongly affect diurnal tides; however, semidiurnal tides are essentially unaffected by diurnal tides. The semidiurnal and diurnal constituents interact with each other through non-linear interference, both destructive and constructive. Semidiurnal tides generate harmonics at nearly the diurnal frequency and higher vertical wavenumbers. In Ombai Strait, these harmonics are out of phase with the diurnal tides and interact destructively with the diurnal tides, effectively negating the diurnal response in some locations. However, this is not a general response, and interactions differ between locations. Energy is also transferred from both semidiurnal and diurnal tides to other frequencies across the spectrum, with more energy originating from semidiurnal tides. These energy transfers are not homogeneous, and the spectral responses differ between the Makassar and Ombai Straits, with the region east of Ombai showing a more active surface response compared to a more intense benthic response in Makassar. In deep water away from topography, velocity spectra generally follow the Garrett–Munk (GM) relation. However, in areas of internal tide generation, spectral density levels exceed GM levels, particularly between 4 and 8 cycles per day (cpd), indicating increased non-linear interactions and energy transfer through resonant interactions. The model indicates strong surface trapping of internal tides, with surface velocity spectra having significantly higher energy between 4 and 8 cpd even 100 km away from the prominent sill generating the internal tides.  相似文献   

10.
以井—含水层系统潮汐理论为基础,利用Baytap-G潮汐分析程序计算鲁14井数字化水位的潮汐响应特征参数,提取井水位潮汐因子和相位差,分析远场大震前后井水位潮汐响应特征参数的变化情况,同时对固体潮和气压影响量进行分离,以期深入了解井水位微动态变化特征,为该井水位观测资料的动态评价和效能评估提供参考。结果表明：鲁14井潮汐地下水流类型以径向流为主,潮汐因子和相位差变化相对稳定,但受远场大震影响显著,其含水层渗透性随潮汐参数的增大（减小）而增大（减小）;地震波作用可使含水层渗透性发生变化,但并非导致含水层渗透性变化的主要因素。  相似文献   

11.
本文应用孔隙弹性理论,探讨了引潮力作用下饱和地质岩体的力学响应.首先通过引潮力作用下饱和岩体的自由能表达式,得到岩体孔压与应力、应力与应变之间的关系;然后从引潮力作用下饱和岩体的平衡微分方程出发,结合流-固耦合理论,分析了饱水岩体应变与引潮位之间的关系;最后推导出饱和岩体的两大力学物理量--孔压和潮汐应力(平均应力)与引潮位之间的物理关系.模型表明:饱和岩体孔压与引潮位成反比,平均潮汐应力与引潮位成正比;比例系数不仅与岩体骨架的Lame系数有关,而且与Biot模量有关.将模型应用于会理川-18井水位变化分析,估计出水位响应系数D,并以此为基础,求得岩体孔压、潮汐应力与引潮位的相关系数(A和C)及Skempton系数B.最后对比分析了耦合条件下与不考虑耦合时得到的各参数之间的差异,分析表明:对饱和地质岩体而言,应力、孔压对引潮力的响应是流-固耦合作用的产物;研究其力学响应时必须充分考虑耦合效应.模型的建立,为研究引潮力作用下井-承压含水层系统力学、水动力学、与地震有关的断层力学以及引潮力触发机制的定量研究提供了基础.  相似文献   

12.
川06井水位固体潮效应变化初探   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文
通过分析承压井孔储水效应对井水位固体潮效应(井潮)的影响, 重点研究了含水层储水系数S和导水系数T对潮汐排水响应的影响, 以探讨井潮变化形成的初步原因. 以川06井为例, 通过对实测井孔水位数据进行潮汐分析, 得到井孔储水效应引起的相对振幅A和相位移η, 进而分析A和η随时间变化的规律以及两者之间的关系. 结果表明, 井潮变化主要受井孔储水效应变化影响; 在潮汐排水响应阶段, 井潮主要受含水层导水系数T(或渗透系数K)影响, 而受储水系数S影响较小.   相似文献   

13.
The evolution of the shore-normal profile shape of accreting tidal flats is controlled mainly by tidally induced mud and sand transport. To understand the evolution processes, a model is developed to simulate the tidal flat profile changes in response to spring-neap tidal cycles. The model treats both sand and mud transport patterns over the tidal flats and adopts an algorithm to deal with the areas near the high water (HW) level on springs. The model is applied to an accreting tidal flat on the central Jiangsu coast, to investigate the relationship between the equilibrium profile shape of the tidal flat and the various influencing factors (e.g. initial profile shape of tidal flat, tidal range and sediment supply). Based on the modeling results the following conclusions are derived: (1) the accreting tidal flat tends to be convex in profile shape when it reaches an equilibrium state; (2) sediment supply is a key factor affecting the width and accretion-erosion status of the tidal flat; (3) filling the area close to high water (HW) on spring tides is essential for reproducing the shape evolution and the morphodynamic behavior of tidal flats; (4) after an equilibrium shape is formed, a tidal flat with abundant sediment supply can steadily prograde to seaward, at the same time maintaining the equilibrium shape; and (5) the modeled width and the slope of the tidal flat are consistent with those of the central Jiangsu coast when the parameters adopted in the model are appropriate for the local conditions.  相似文献   

14.
The increase of salt intrusion in recent years in the Modaomen Estuary, one of the estuaries of the Pearl River Delta in China, has threatened the freshwater supply in the surrounding regions, especially the cities of Zhongshan, Zhuhai in Guangdong Province and Macau. A numerical modeling system using nested grids was developed to investigate the salt transport mechanisms and the response of salt intrusion to changes in river discharge and tidal mixing. The steady shear transport induced by estuarine circulation reaches maximum and minimum, respectively, during neap and spring tides, while the tidal oscillatory transport shows an opposite pattern. The net transport is landward during neap tides and seaward during spring tides. The salt intrusion length responding to constant river discharges generally follows a power law of ?0.49. The dependence of salt intrusion on tidal velocity is less than that predicted by theoretical models for exchange flow dominated estuaries. The response of salt intrusion to change in tidal velocity depends largely on river discharge. When river flow increases, the impact of tidal velocity increases and the phase lag of response time decreases. The asymmetries of salt intrusion responding to increasing and decreasing river discharge (tidal velocity) are observed in the estuary.  相似文献   

15.
Bremer and Berger (J. Atmos. Solar Terr. Phys. 64 (2002) 805) applied a correction for trends in the NO concentration and αeff in the interpretation of trends in the low frequency (LF) phase height measurements and obtained results less consistent with model simulations as well as the observed trends in mesospheric temperatures. The correction is shown to be too large most probably due to the application of inappropriate trends in αeff of Chakrabarty (Adv. Space Res. 20 (1997) 2117), which yield a trend in electron density opposite to that which is observed. The discrepancy between the observational data and model-simulated trends of Bremer and Berger (J. Atoms. Solar. Terr. Phys. 64 (2002) 805) in the LF phase heights can be largely removed. Even more important, the trends in mesospheric temperatures inferred by Bremer and Berger (J. Atmos. Solar Terr. Phys. 64 (2002) 805) from trends in the LF phase heights without the inappropriate correction agree well with the results of analysis of a global set of results on trends in the mesospheric temperatures by Beig et al. (Rev. Geophys. 41 (2003) 1015).  相似文献   

16.
On the vertical structure of the Rhine region of freshwater influence   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
An idealised three-dimensional numerical model of the Rhine region of fresh water influence (ROFI) was set up to explore the effect of stratification on the vertical structure of the tidal currents. Prandle’s dynamic Ekman layer model, in the case of zero-depth-averaged, cross-shore velocities, was first used to validate the response of the numerical model in the case of barotropic tidal flow. Prandle’s model predicted rectilinear tidal currents with an ellipse veering of up to 2%. The behaviour of the Rhine ROFI in response to both a neap and a spring tide was then investigated. For the given numerical specifications, the Rhine plume region was well mixed over the vertical on spring tide and stratified on neap tide. During spring conditions, rectilinear tidal surface currents were found along the Dutch coast. In contrast, during neap conditions, significant cross-shore currents and tidal straining were observed. Prandle’s model predicted ellipse veering of 50%, and was found to be a good indicator of ellipticity magnitude as a function of bulk vertical eddy viscosity. The modelled tidal ellipses showed that surface currents rotated anti-cyclonically whereas bottom currents rotated cyclonically. This caused a semi-diurnal cross-shore velocity shearing which was 90° out of phase with the alongshore currents. This cross-shore shear subsequently acted on the horizontal density gradient in the plume, thereby causing a semi-diurnal stratification pattern, with maximum stratification around high water. The same behaviour was exhibited in simulations of a complete spring–neap tidal cycle. This showed a pattern of recurring stratification on neaps and de-stratification on springs, in accordance with observations collected from field campaigns in the 1990’s. To understand the increase in ellipticities to 30% during neaps and the precise shape of the vertical ellipse structure, stratification has to be taken into account. Here, a full three-dimensional numerical model was employed, and was found to represent the effect of de-coupling of the upper and lower layers due to a reduction of mixing at the pycnocline.  相似文献   

17.
In this paper, the long time series data of the well water-level data of 12 wells in the Sichuan and Yunnan area is analyzed by the Baytap-G tidal analysis software, and well water level tidal response characteristic parameters (amplitude ratio and phase change) are extracted. We analyzed the features of the shape and stage change, and characteristic parameters of the tidal response of well water level before and after the earthquakes, which can provide a new method and approach to analyzing the response relationships between well water level and earth tide and barometric pressure. The results show that Luguhu Well and 9 other wells are affected by earth tides, and their well water level amplitude ratios and phases are relatively stable; the Nanxi Well and Dayao Well water level changes are affected by the barometric pressure combined with tide force, and their well water level amplitude ratios and phases are more discrete. The water level amplitude ratios and phases of Jiangyou Well, Luguhu Well and Dongchuan Well are significant to large earthquakes, and the relationship between seismic energy density and water level amplitude ratios and phases of M2 wave of the three wells are presented.  相似文献   

18.
This study examines connections between mean sea level (MSL) variability and diurnal and semidiurnal tidal constituent variations at 17 open-ocean and 9 continental shelf tide gauges in the western tropical Pacific Ocean, a region showing anomalous rise in MSL over the last 20 years and strong interannual variability. Detrended MSL fluctuations are correlated with detrended tidal amplitude and phase fluctuations, defined as tidal anomaly trends (TATs), to quantify the response of tidal properties to MSL variation. About 20 significant amplitude and phase TATs are found for each of the two strongest tidal constituents, K1 (diurnal) and M2 (semidiurnal). Lesser constituents (O1 and S2) show trends at nearly half of all gauges. Fluctuations in MSL shift amplitudes and phases; both positive and negative responses occur. Changing overtides suggest that TATs are influenced by changing shallow water friction over the equatorial Western Pacific and the eastern coast of Australia (especially near the Great Barrier Reef). There is a strong connection between semidiurnal TATs at stations around the Solomon Islands and changes in thermocline depth, overtide generation, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). TATs for O1, K1, and M2 are related to each other in a manner that suggests transfer of energy from M2 to the two diurnals via resonant triad interactions; these cause major tidal variability on sub-decadal time scales, especially for M2. The response of tides to MSL variability is not only spatially complex, it is frequency dependent; therefore, short-term responses may not predict long-term behavior.  相似文献   

19.
Depositional environments along the tidal river downstream of Óbidos have been proposed as important sinks for up to one third of the sediment discharge from the Amazon River. However, the morphology of the intertidal floodplain and the dynamics of sediment exchange along this reach have yet to be described. River-bank surveys in five regions along the Amazon tidal river reveal a distinct transition in bank morphology between the upper, central and lower reaches of the tidal river. The upper tidal-river floodplain is defined by prominent natural levees that control the transfer of water and sediment between the mainstem Amazon River and its floodplain. Greater tidal influence in the central tidal river suppresses levee development, and tidal currents increase sediment transport into the distal parts of the floodplain. In the lower tidal river, the floodplain morphology closely resembles marine intertidal environments (e.g. mud flats, salt marshes), with dendritic tidal channels incising elevated vegetated flats. Theory, morphology and geochronology suggest that the dynamics of sediment delivery to the intertidal floodplain of the Amazon tidal river vary along its length due to the relative influence and coupling of fluvial and tidal dynamics. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Observations at 8 sites in the outer central Great Barrier Reef show M2, S2, K1, and O1 tidal currents flow directly off-shelf (northeast), when the corresponding tide at Townsville is at zero height and falling, with typical amplitudes of 12, 6, 3, and 2 cm s?1. On the slope (at 300 m depth), the vertically averaged long-shelf component was small. On the shelf, the eccentricity of the tidal ellipses decreases shoreward and the tidal ellipses rotate anticlockwise. The major axes of the tidal ellipses tilt left of cross-shelf, especially for the diurnal constituents. There is satisfactory agreement between the observed and modelled cross-shelf currents. The long-shelf velocity is sensitive to the long-shelf changes in amplitude and phase of the tide heights and high quality tidal data for open boundary conditions will be required if numerical models are to model these currents satisfactorily.  相似文献   

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