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1.
阿克苏河洪水类型及其形成的500hPa环流特征 总被引：15，自引：6，他引：9
利用阿克苏河两条支流和干流的月径流量以及年最大洪峰流量资料,分析了阿克苏河的洪水特征.阿克苏河西支托什干河主汛期在5~8月,北支库玛拉克河与阿克苏河干流的主汛期在7~8月,库玛拉克河的洪水对阿克苏河干流洪水作用更大.托什干河洪水以融雪型、融雪叠加暴雨型两种类型为主,库玛拉克河洪水以融雪(冰)型、融雪(冰)叠加冰湖溃坝型为主,阿克苏河干流洪水以混合型最多见,其次是融雪(冰)型.年最大流量排名前15位的洪水中,阿克苏河两条支流与干流在1987年以后分别出现了7~9a,在此基础上分析归纳了三类形成阿克苏河流域主要洪水的500hPa环流模型.阿克苏河流域主汛期形成混合型洪水的500hPa环流特征为:新疆高压脊稳定在天山山区中部及以东地区,5880gpm等高线北界稳定在天山上空或天山以北,西部边界在帕米尔高原以东的南疆盆地上空,中亚地区为副热带低槽活动区,环流形势相对稳定.主汛期形成融雪(冰)型洪水的500hPa环流特征为:新疆高压脊向北发展且稳定维持3d以上,5880gpm等高线北界稳定在天山以北,西部边界在帕米尔高原以西.春季形成融雪型洪水的500hPa环流特征为:帕米尔高原及西天山受新疆高压脊控制,稳定维持3d以上,高压脊内5840gpm等高线北边界维持在40°N以北. 相似文献
2.
新疆阿尔泰山区克兰河上游水文过程对气候变暖的响应 总被引：17，自引：7，他引：10
额尔齐斯河支流克兰河上游发源于西风带水汽影响的阿尔泰山南坡,主要由融雪径流补给,年内积雪融水可占年径流量的45%.年最大月径流一般出现在6月份,融雪季节4~6月径流量占65%.流域自20世纪60年代开始明显升温,年平均温度从50年代的1.4℃上升到90年代的5.2℃;年降水总量也呈增加趋势,尤其是冬季和初春增加最多.随着气候变暖,河流年内水文过程发生了很大的变化,主要表现在最大月径流由6月提前到5月,月径流总量增加约15%,4~6月融雪径流量也由占年流量的60%增加到近70%.在多年变化趋势上,气温上升主要发生在冬季,降水也以冬季增加明显,而夏季降水呈下降趋势;水文过程主要表现在5月径流呈增加趋势,而6月径流为下降趋势;夏季径流减少而春季径流增加明显.冬春季积雪增加和气温上升,导致融雪洪水增多且洪峰流量增大,使洪水灾害破坏性加大.近些年来气候变暖引起的年内水文过程变化,已经对河流下游的城市供水和农牧业生产产生了影响. 相似文献
3.
利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法对长江源区直门达水文站的资料进行分析,揭示长江源区年径流量在1956-2000年间呈微弱的减少趋势。结合流域气象资料分析,该时段流域内升温明显,最大可能蒸发量呈增加趋势,降水也呈微弱减少趋势。径流变化与降水变化基本一致,降雨-径流关系没有发生明显变化,表明1980-2000年降水量减少是该时段径流量减少的直接原因,温度升高有利于融冰融雪和降水形式的变化,但由于融冰融雪占径流补给的比率相对较小,该时段温度升高导致融冰融雪的增加不足以抵消降水量的减少对径流的影响。径流量季节变化分析,揭示长江源区春季径流呈增加的趋势,这可能与融雪过程提前以及融雪量增加有关。 相似文献
4.
The electricity generation capacity in the Limay River basin is approximately 26% of the total electrical power generation
in Argentina. Assessing the potential effects of climate change on the hydrological regime of this basin is an important issue
for water resources management. This study explores the presence of trends in streamflow series, evaluates climate sensitivity
and studies the effects on the flow regime of predicted changes in precipitation in the basin. In order to identify and quantify
changes in observed streamflow series, the Mann–Kendall test, with a modification for autocorrelated data, and an estimator
of the magnitude of the trend are applied. In order to evaluate the sensitivity of streamflow to changes in climate, the concept
of elasticity is used. Precipitation elasticity of streamflow is used to quantify the sensitivity of streamflow to changes
in precipitation and is estimated using a power law model and a linear statistical model in two sub-basins, Aluminé and Nahuel
Huapi. The effects on flow regime of the predicted changes in precipitation under different scenarios are studied. Climatic
results for different scenarios of growth in greenhouse gases from some General Circulation Models are used as inputs into
the proposed models. The analysis identifies decreasing trends in mean and minimum annual flows and in the low flow season.
The estimates of the precipitation elasticity imply that changes in precipitation produce similar changes in streamflow and
the climatic results for different scenarios show that the variations are moderate. 相似文献
5.
西天山山区气候变化与灌区绿洲气候效应 总被引：10，自引：2，他引：8
对近40a西天山山区气候变化的特点及其变化趋势进行了分析,并以阿克苏源流区、阿克苏灌区以及叶尔羌河灌区的14个气象站的观测资料(1961—2000年)为基础,重点研究了灌区的气候变化及绿洲气候效应.20世纪90年代以来,各区域的气温增高,降水增多,其中在源流地区降水增加幅度最大,而沙尘暴、浮尘和大风日数都有明显的下降.最后,讨论了气候变化与绿洲发展的关系. 相似文献
6.
7.
Streamflow changes and its influencing factors in the mainstream of the Songhua River basin,Northeast China over the past 50 years 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
The Songhua River plays a key role in the national development of China, owing to its unique natural condition and resources.
Recent changes in the streamflow in the Songhua River are important with regard to local sustainable development and management
under the background of global warming and aggravating soil erosion. In order to detect changes in the streamflow, two streamflow
series from 1955 to 2004 (observed at the Harbin and Jiamusi stations) in the mainstream of Songhua River basin were obtained,
and methods of statistical analysis, wavelet transform, and double mass analysis were employed to analyze the data. Reasons
for the changes to the streamflow are discussed with respect to natural and man-made drivers. The results show the following:
(1) From 1955 to 2004, the streamflow series present obvious declining trends. (2) The streamflow series followed the pattern
of a wet–dry–wet–dry cycle pattern over the past 50 years. In the mainstream of Songhua River, wet years mainly occurred during
the periods of 1955–1966 and 1984–1993, while dry years mainly occurred in the 1970s and after 2000. (3) Within the 50-year
scale, the streamflow series appeared in the main periods of circa 33-, 13- and 4-year, in which the 33-year periodicity is
the strongest. (4) Precipitation and temperature directly influenced the streamflow in the mainstream of the basin. The discharge
was positively correlated with the precipitation and negatively correlated with the temperature. In addition, human activity
was another important driving factor for streamflow change. (5) In the mainstream of Songhua River basin, the influences on
streamflow can be divided into three periods: 1955–1976, 1977–1997, and 1998–2004. In the first period climate change played
a dominant role, and during the latter two periods human influences were enhanced significantly. 相似文献
8.
利用1979-2016年金沙江支流漾弓江流域木家桥水文站流量资料和丽江市气象资料,揭示了漾弓江流域径流变化特征及其主要影响因素。研究结果表明：漾弓江流域年径流量呈先增加后减小趋势。在年代际时间尺度, 20世纪80年代、90年代以及2000-2009年,径流量呈现增加趋势,而2010-2016年径流量呈减小趋势,与2000-2009年相比, 2010-2016年径流量减少了42%（减少径流量为0.88×108 m3）。气温和降水量对径流的影响均较为显著,其中,降水量对径流的影响主要体现在雨季,而气温对径流的影响主要体现在消融期。气温升高导致冰川累积负物质平衡,进而引起冰雪融水变化,漾弓江流域2000-2009年径流变化的主要原因。 相似文献
9.
近50a来塔里木河源流区区年径流量的持续性和趋势性统计特征分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
对塔里木河源流区三条源流5个水文控制站1957-2003年近50 a的年均气温、降水及年径流资料,在进行Mann-Kenclall非参数统计检验的基础上,运用R/S法分析了5个水文控制站年径流量的Hurst指数,以统计特征估计未来径流量的变化趋势.结果显示:由于近年来温度的持续升高,阿克苏河的径流量有显著的增加趋势,并且其增长的持续性较强;和田河的径流量有微递减的趋势,但趋势并不显著,在未来的变化中,其随机性较强;叶尔羌河的径流量虽表现出增加的趋势,但趋势不显著,其径流量在未来的变化中将会是反持续性与随机性共存. 相似文献
10.
The Tarim River lies in the inland area of Northwest China, which has a semiarid or arid climate. Because of relatively scarce precipitation in this area, the main water resource is runoff from a mountainous drainage basin. It is very important to ascertain variations of regular hydrologic and meteorological time series data. Through the use of monthly precipitation and hydrologic data in the three headstream mountain areas of the Tarim River over the past 50 years, this work analyzes the variation of a drought–flood index and annual runoff volume, along with spatio-temporal structures of the index related to runoff at multiple time scales, via non-parametric testing and a wavelet transform method. Wavelet transform can clearly demonstrate many characteristics of the time series, including trend, shift, and major periods. Based on the analysis, the following conclusions can be drawn: (1) the drought–flood indices showed increasing trends for the Aksu and Yarkand rivers, and rose non-significantly for Hotan River. The indices of the three headstreams changed remarkably (p < 0.05) in 1986. The curves of wavelet variance show that significant periods of the indices are 4 and 8 years for Aksu and Hotan rivers, and 8 and 10 years for Yarkand River; (2) runoff of the Aksu and Hotan rivers had significant periods of 6 and 8 years, plus 3 and 9 years for Hotan River; (3) there was significant correlation between the drought–flood indices and annual runoff volume in the three headstreams. The results provide important information toward achieving predictability of flood and drought in Northwest China. 相似文献
11.
全球气候变暖将加剧水循环,增大洪水风险。阿克苏河流域位于天山南坡,是北半球中纬度典型的高山流域。本流域不仅有暴雨洪水、冰川和积雪融水造成的洪水,而且还有冰川溃决突发洪水。以阿克苏河的两条支流库玛拉克河和托什干河为研究对象,利用块最大值抽样方法（block maximum）和超定量阈值（peak over threshold,POT）抽样方法提取出1958—2011年的洪水事件,其中基于POT方法在两条支流分别提取106次和112次洪水事件,主要集中在6月、7月和8月份。研究表明：阿克苏河的两条支流库玛拉克河和托什干河的年最大洪水强度分别以8.48 m3?s-1和3.40 m3?s-1的速率增加;在洪水发生时间上,以冰川融水补给为主的库玛拉克河,洪水发生时间有提前的趋势,而以降雨和融雪水补给为主的托什干河,洪水发生时间变得更加分散,表现为春季最大洪水提前、秋季最大洪水推后。 相似文献
12.
SHANG Huaming CHEN Feng WEI Wenshou MAO Weiyi ZHANG Ruibo ZHANG Tongwen YU Shulong 《《地质学报》英文版》2020,94(3):690-697
A regional tree-ring width chronology of Schrenk spruce(Picea schrenkiana) was used to determine the annual(previous July to current June) streamflow of the Kuqa River in Xinjiang, China, for the period of 1414–2015. A linear transformation of the tree-ring data accounted for 63.9% of the total variance when regressed against instrumental streamflow during 1957–2006. The model was validated by comparing the regression estimates against independent data. High streamflow periods with a streamflow above the 602-year mean occurred from 1430–1442, 1466–1492, 1557–1586, 1603–1615, 1687–1717, 1748–1767, 1795–1819, 1834–1856, 1888–1910 and 1989–2015. Low streamflow periods(streamflow below the mean) occurred from 1419–1429, 1443–1465, 1493–1556, 1587–1602, 1616–1686, 1720–1747, 1768–1794, 1820–1833, 1857–1887 and 1911–1988. The reconstruction compares well with the tree-ring-based streamflow series of the Tizinafu River from the Kunlun Mountains; both show well-known severe drought events. The streamflow reconstruction also shows highly synchronous upward trends since the 1980 s, suggesting that streamflow is related to Central Asian warming and humidification. Thus, the influences of the extremes and the persistence of low streamflows on local society may be considerable. Climatic changes in the watershed may be responsible for the change in the hydrologic regime of the Tarim Basin observed during the late twentieth century. 相似文献
13.
基于气候变化和人类活动影响的土地利用分析——以新疆阿克苏河流域绿洲为例 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
以1990、 2000、 2010年3期Landsat TM影像为土地利用基础数据, 结合1990年以来的社会经济资料和反映气候变化的气温、 降水数据, 对1990年以来阿克苏河流域绿洲土地利用变化进行了分析. 结果表明: 1990-2010年期间, 耕地、 建设用地以单向转入为主, 耕地对绿洲"扩张"贡献最大, 前期(1990-2000年)的贡献率为129.1%, 后期(2001-2010年)的贡献率提高到142.5%; 草地、 水域以单向转出为主, 草地对绿洲"萎缩"贡献最大, 前期的贡献率是-39.8%, 后期是-34.8%; 其次是水域, 前期对绿洲的贡献率是-1%, 后期是-9.3%; 河漫滩、 林地、 湿地在前期对绿洲的"扩张"贡献率分别是7.5%、 0.3%和5.1%, 后期对绿洲的"萎缩"贡献率分别是-2.4%、 -0.02%和-0.4%. 近20 a来流域绿洲规模整体上持续扩张. 通过分析绿洲土地利用驱动力系统可以看出, 绿洲土地利用类型变化主要受人类活动影响, 气候变化起基础性作用. 相似文献
14.
Coupling a glacier melt model to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model for hydrological modeling in north-western China 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Qiudong Zhao Baisheng Ye Yongjian Ding Shiqiang Zhang Shuhua Yi Jian Wang Donghui Shangguan Chuancheng Zhao Haidong Han 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,68(1):87-101
For the sustainable utilization of rivers in the mid and downstream regions, it is essential that land surface hydrological processes are quantified in high cold mountains regions, as it is in these regions where most of the larger rivers in China acquire their headstreams. Glaciers are one of the most important water resources of north-west China. However, they are seldom explicitly considered within hydrological models, and climate-change effects on glaciers, permafrost and snow cover will have increasingly important consequences for runoff. In this study, an energy-balance ice-melt model was integrated within the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model. The extended VIC model was applied to simulate the hydrological processes in the Aksu River basin, a large mountainous and glaciered catchment in north-west China. The runoff components and their response to climate change were analyzed based on the simulated and observed data. The model showed an acceptable performance, and achieved an efficiency coefficient R 2 ≈ 0.8 for the complete simulation period. The results indicate that a large proportion of the catchment runoff is derived from ice meltwater and snowmelt water. In addition, over the last 38 years, rising temperature caused an extension in the snow/ice melting period and a reduction in the seasonality signal of runoff. Due to teh increased precipitation runoff, the Aksu catchment annual runoff had a positive trend, increasing by about 40.00 × 106 m3 per year, or 25.7 %. 相似文献
15.
对中国天山北坡三工河流域山地、绿洲、荒漠不同下垫面区域1961-2007年气象资料序列进行了分析, 结果表明: 近50 a平原绿洲区平均温度以0.3 ℃·(10a)~(-1) 趋势上升;流域山区增温趋势较慢, 平均每10 a以0.17 ℃的趋势增温, 但本世纪初增温速率加快, 绿洲区和山区分别增加0.7 ℃和 0.5 ℃. 流域CO_2浓度和CH_4浓度持续上升, 且高于全球平均水平.原绿洲区1987-2007年比1961-1986年平均降水量偏多35%;山区降水量平均每10 a增加速率和绿洲区基本一致, 但波动较大, 20世纪80年代降水增加较显著, 90年代降水量减少到70年代水平, 本世纪初降水量显著增加. 气候变化序列用Mann-Kendall方法检验认为, 山区温度和降水没有达到突变水平, 平原绿洲区降水在1984年发生了由低向高的突变, 温度在1995年发生了由低向高的突变. 夏季荒漠空气相对湿度、太阳辐射量均小于绿洲, 但温度却始终高于绿洲, 绿洲"湿岛效应"和"冷岛效应"特征明显. 荒漠-绿洲温差有3 h、 20 h的主要周期, 温差突变一般发生在凌晨. 相似文献
16.
Analyses of flood disasters were conducted using 1950–2001 data on the flood-damaged areas of cropland, the annual number
of flood disasters and the direct economic losses in Xinjiang. There is an increasing trend in flood disasters in Xinjiang
during the second half of the 20th century, especially since the mid-1980s. Results of a non-parametric Mann–Kendall test
on the cropland-flooded index time series revealed an abrupt change in the mid-1980s. The reasons are discussed with respect
to changes in annual precipitation and regional human activities, by correlating cropland-flooded area to annual precipitation
and three socio-economic parameters (population, cropland area and GDP). The correlation coefficients between the flood-damaged
area and the annual precipitation during the periods 1961–1998 and 1987–1998 were substantially higher than during the period
of 1961–1986. The correlation coefficients between the flood-damaged area and the three human activity parameters, however,
were relatively high for the whole period of 1961–1998, but generally not significant for the 1961–1986 and 1987–1998 periods,
separately. These suggest that the occurrence of flood disasters could be mainly induced by local human activities before
the mid-1980s, and thereafter mainly by abnormal precipitation in Xinjiang. Meteorological and hydrological records showed
that the number of heavy rainfall events and the frequency of rainstorm flood disasters increased since the 1980s. In addition,
siltation of reservoirs and loss of flood control structures are partly responsible for the increase of flood-damaged area.
These results suggest that the increasing trend in flood disasters in Xinjiang since the middle 1980s could be attributed,
at least in part, to an increasing trend in annual precipitation. 相似文献
17.
塔里木河流域气候与径流变化及生态修复 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
从20世纪90年代中期开始,塔里木河流域气温上升、降水增加,阿克苏河、开都河等主要河流几乎同步进入持续的丰水周期时段,为塔里木河流域生态修复创造了绝好的“天时”和历史性机遇.这种大区域的气候异常变化现象引起了国内外广大学者的广泛关注,区域气候异常变化是全球气温上升影响盆地气候向温湿转型,还是一个世纪性的水文周期变化现象,一时间成为了学术界的热点议题.系统分析了塔里木河流域山区水文气象站近50 a来的气温、降水、河川径流以及塔里木河来水量变化,并系统评价了利用开都河丰水期的有利时机,向塔里木河下游应急输水及其生态修复情况. 相似文献
18.
Effects of glacier melting on socioeconomic development in the Manas River basin, China 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
This study used 46 years of recent data, including glacial area, temperature, precipitation, and runoff data, to examine the glacier melting and its possible socioeconomic effects in the Manas River basin in western China. The average yearly change in the glaciated area in the Manas River basin for the entire study period was 0.41 %, and the glacier mass balance mainly keeps negative in the last 46 years. The negative glacial mass balance observed between 1986 and 2006 was 2.8 times greater than that for the period 1960–1985. Additionally, the amount of meltwater runoff was 78 % greater in 1986–2006 than in 1960–1985, with a mean depth of 478 mm year?1.Glacier melting and runoff in the Manas River basin during the late twentieth century were higher than at present. Annual meltwater volumes can reach 1 × 108 m3, providing beneficial water resources to downstream areas. However, as the climate becomes warmer, the risk of meltwater flooding will also increase. Our calculations indicate that after the 2030s, the level of flooding risk will increase substantially. 相似文献
19.
Xu Changchun Chen Yaning Li Weihong Chen Yapeng Ge Hongtao 《Environmental Geology》2008,53(7):1465-1474
Two data sets, annual temperature and precipitation time series from 19 observation stations in the Tarim River basin covering
1958 through 2002, were investigated by non-parametric tests to detect the trend and features of climate change and variability.
Based on these data, the snow cover area (SCA) in situ for the period 1982–2001 was further analyzed to examine the effect
of climate change on snow. The results showed that both the temperature and precipitation had a jump in the mid 1980s and
significantly increased in winter and summer, respectively. The SCA of the entire basin showed a slowly increasing trend.
Responses of the SCA to temperature and precipitation in the northern, western and southern regions showed that the effect
of precipitation on SCA is larger than that of temperature. In vertical direction, the SCA in the zone below 2,500 m a.s.l.
kept a slow increase, but that in the zone above 2,500 m a.s.l. was inching down. Comparatively, the lower altitude zone was
apt to be affected by precipitation, while the higher altitude zone tended to be influenced by temperature. The mid zone from
2,500 to 5,000 m was the area most sensitive to and affected by climate change. Compared with that in the 1980s, both the
snowing and melting rates were higher in the 1990s. Correlation analysis implied that the SCA change in the cold season was
positively correlated with the contemporary precipitation change, but had no strong correlation with the contemporary temperature
change. 相似文献
20.
塔里木河流域2005年四源流对干流供水径流情势分析 总被引：14，自引：9，他引：5
2004年塔里木河流域四条源流出山口天然径流量272.1×108m3,属丰水年,比多年平均值224.9×108m3多47.20×108m3,增加21.0%;比20世纪90年代平均241.9×108m3多30.20×108m3,增加12.8%,在1957-2005年49 a水文系列中排名第5位.其中,阿克苏河、叶尔羌河、和田河3条源流与多年均值比较,增幅达22%～25%,开都-孔雀河为平略偏丰.四条源流入塔里木河总水量为56.88×108m3,占四条源流出山口天然径流总量的20.9%.根据现今塔里木河综合治理,仍需要制定长远的全面流域规划,以生态系统建设为根本,从工程上、宏观水量控制管理上、经济上和科技手段上,保障实现塔里木河流域水资源的可持续开发利用. 相似文献