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1.
Inter-Annual Variability and Decadal Trends in Alpine Spring Phenology: A Multivariate Analysis Approach 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Plant phenological observations are of increasing value as indicators of climate change and variability. We developed a robust
multispecies estimate for Swiss Alpine spring phenology for the period 1965–2002 by applying empirical orthogonal function
(EOF) analysis on a combination of 15 spring phases. The impact of climate parameters such as temperature and precipitation
on the phenological development was investigated using a multivariate statistical model. This multispecies estimate proved
to be a good approach to assess the pattern of spring appearance during the last 40 years. It revealed an earlier onset of
spring in recent years, mainly since 1988 when a clear shift in spring appearance occurred. The mean overall trend of 1.5
days per decade was clearly driven by winter and spring temperatures whereas precipitation showed no significant influence.
The dominant EOF patterns suggested a general climate forcing for the observed inter-annual variability independent of single
plant phases. A more regional phenology signal was found in the second EOF mode, indicating slightly weaker phenological trends
in southern Switzerland as well as in higher altitudes. Both, temperature and precipitation contributed to this pattern significantly.
Analysis of single phases confirmed the pattern of the multispecies estimate. All species showed trends towards earlier appearance
ranging from −1 to −2.8 days per decade and the appearance dates had a very high covariance with temperature. 相似文献
2.
Records of hydrologic parameters, especially those parameters that are directly linked to air temperature, were analyzed to
find indicators of recent climate warming in Minnesota, USA. Minnesota is projected to be vulnerable to climate change because
of its location in the northern temperate zone of the globe. Ice-out and ice-in dates on lakes, spring (snowmelt) runoff timing,
spring discharge values in streams, and stream water temperatures recorded up to the year 2002 were selected for study. The
analysis was conducted by inspection of 10-year moving averages, linear regression on complete and on partial records, and
by ranking and sorting of events. Moving averages were used for illustrative purposes only. All statistics were computed on
annual data.
All parameters examined show trends, and sometimes quite variable trends, over different periods of the record. With the exception
of spring stream flow rates the trends of all parameters examined point toward a warming climate in Minnesota over the last
two or three decades. Although hidden among strong variability from year to year, ice-out dates on 73 lakes have been shifting
to an earlier date at a rate of −0.13 days/year from 1965 to 2002, while ice-in dates on 34 lakes have been delayed by 0.75
days/year from 1979 to 2002. From 1990 to 2002 the rates of change increased to −0.25 days/year for ice-out and 1.44 days/year
for ice-in. Trend analyses also show that spring runoff at 21 stream gaging sites examined occurs earlier. From 1964 to 2002
the first spring runoff (due to snowmelt) has occurred −0.30 days/year earlier and the first spring peak runoff −0.23 days/year
earlier. The stream water temperature records from 15 sites in the Minneapolis/St Paul metropolitan area shows warming by
0.11∘C/year, on the average, from 1977 to 2002. Urban development may have had a strong influence. The analysis of spring stream
flow rates was inconclusive, probably because runoff is linked as much to precipitation and land use as to air temperature.
Ranking and sorting of annual data shows that a disproportionately large number of early lake ice-out dates has occurred after
1985, but also between 1940 and 1950; similarly late lake ice-in has occurred more frequently since about 1990. Ranking and
sorting of first spring runoff dates also gave evidence of earlier occurrences, i.e. climate warming in late winter.
A relationship of changes in hydrologic parameters with trends in air temperature records was demonstrated. Ice-out dates
were shown to correlate most strongly with average March air temperatures shifting by −2.0 days for a 1°C increase in March air temperature. Spring runoff dates also show a relationship with March air temperatures; spring runoff
dates shift at a rate of −2.5 days/1°C minimum March air temperature change. Water temperatures at seven river sites in the Minneapolis/St Paul metropolitan area
show an average rise of 0.46°C in river temperature/1°C mean annual air temperature change, but this rate of change probably includes effects of urban development.
In conclusion, records of five hydrologic parameters that are closely linked to air temperature show a trend that suggests
recent climate warming in Minnesota, and especially from 1990 to 2002. The recent rates of change calculated from the records
are very noteworthy, but must not be used to project future parameter values, since trends cannot continue indefinitely, and
trend reversals can be seen in some of the long-term records. 相似文献
3.
以不高于0℃最低气温作为霜冻指标, 利用1961—2006年大连地区3个国家级气象站逐日最低气温资料, 采用现代气候诊断分析方法, 分析了该地区初、终霜冻事件和无霜期变化的特征。结果表明:近46年来, 大连和瓦房店站均表现为初霜冻日推迟、终霜冻日提早、无霜冻期延长的变化趋势, 其中瓦房店站表现得更为显著; 庄河站的初霜冻日和终霜冻日表现出相似的变化, 但各自的变化趋势不显著, 而无霜冻期延长趋势显著; 大连境内极早初霜冻日和极晚终霜冻日发生频数分别为1~3次和1~4次, 大连最多, 瓦房店最少; 大连站的初霜冻日期存在2年和11年的显著周期, 终霜冻日期存在22年的显著周期, 庄河站的初霜冻日期和无霜冻期均存在11年左右显著周期; 异常霜冻事件大连和庄河站20世纪60年代出现的频数最多, 21世纪初最少; 而瓦房店21世纪初异常霜冻事件出现的频数最多, 20世纪80年代最少。 相似文献
4.
Spring frosts are feared by farmers, fruit growers, and wine growers as they can cause significant damage to crops when they occur during the development of the plants. In the second half of April 2017, following a very warm period that had caused premature vegetation growth, a cold air mass from the Arctic penetrated central and western Europe, causing severe damage to natural and cultivated vegetation over broad areas. Here, we analyze how exceptional this event was in Switzerland and Germany in relation to the accumulated growing degree days (GDD), used as a proxy for plant phenology advancement. Although this damaging frost was not the latest on record in terms of calendar days, our results show that it was, in some regions, unprecedented in relation to the accumulated warmth during the preceding period, at least since the beginning of instrumental temperature records (1864). Our results also highlight how global warming has considerably increased the number of days with mean temperature above 5 °C in late winter and early spring, especially since 1970 (+?16.8?±?4.7 °C days decade?1). However, in spite of earlier spring phenology due to climate warming, our results suggest that the risk of damaging frost events to vegetation has remained unchanged over the last 150 years in lowlands of Switzerland and Germany, due to the concurring earlier occurrence of the last potentially damaging frosts (about ??20 days since 1864). Our analyses reveal therefore that the April 2017 damaging frost was a true outlier in terms of risk of frost damage to plants. 相似文献
5.
By analysing records made in the northern taiga forests of the Lapland Reserve (Kola Peninsula, Russia) during 1930–1998, we unexpectedly discovered a decline in the length of the snow-free and ice-free periods by 15–20 days due to both delayed spring and advanced autumn/winter. Respective seasonal temperatures best explained the dates of all phenological phases: 1 °C shift in temperature was approximately equal to 2–5 day shift in phenology. However the phenological shiftsduring the observation period are much larger than could be expected from the slight (0.56 °C) drop in temperatures during August–September, suggesting that the biotic effects of a very slight cooling have been enhanced by one or more unknown factors. Although emissions of sulphur dioxide from the nickel-copper smelter at Monchegorsk may have contributed to the observed trend (via changes in regional radiative budget), we found no evidence of direct pollution impact on dates of birch autumnal coloration or birch leaf fall, which exhibited the largest (22 days) shift between 1930 and 1998. The detected phenological trends agree with an increase in winter (snow) precipitation in the study area by 44%; however, effects of precipitation on any of the investigated phenological phases were far from significant. Our results highlight the importance of phenological records for the assessment of past regional environmental changes, and demonstrates that the prediction of even the simplest biotic responses to the Global Changes requires a profound understanding of the interactive impact of abiotic factors on the ecosystem. 相似文献
6.
Climate parameters, especially temperature, sunlight, and precipitation, play a decisive role in growing and maturing processes. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between climate variability and variations in phenological events in viticulture. Long time series of daily meteorological observations are used to quantify these relations. The primary aim is to predict the date of phenological events by relationships between plant morphology and environmental conditions. Causal relationships between environment and internal activities of the vine (phytochemistry, cellular interactions, molecular and cell biology) are not our focus. The dates of the phenological events are important for planning treatments in the vineyards like pest management, for predicting the duration of the ripening phase and estimating the quality of the grapes and the vintage. The focus is layed on the region of the Upper Moselle, especially the Luxembourgian viticulture. First the regional climate and the phenological states of different vine varieties during the time period 1951?C2005 are analysed. Significant trends are detected in annual, spring and summer temperatures. Vine phenology is also found to have changed significantly; budburst date and flowering events occur earlier by about two weeks. In a second step, relationships between phenological events and climate parameters are used to develop a prediction model. The parameterisation used in this study is based on a linear multiple regression method with forward and backward steps. The predictors tested are mainly temperature means for different time periods or temperature derived indices. In addition precipitation and sunshine duration for different time periods are evaluated, but only the temperature based predictors showed sufficient skill. For the budburst event, the significant predictors are the accumulated degree days in March, the mean daily maximum temperature in April and the accumulated frost days from January to March. The flowering event is best predicted by the accumulated degree days in May and April, the mean daily maximum temperature in June, and the date of the budburst event. Depending on the vine variety and the phenological event, the model explains 80?C89% of the variance and has a correlation coefficient above 0.90 with the observations. 相似文献
7.
Plant Phenological Anomalies in Germany and their Relation to Air Temperature and NAO 总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13
Annette Menzel 《Climatic change》2003,57(3):243-263
This paper analyses long-term (1951–2000) phenological observations of20 plant seasonal phases recorded within the phenological network of the German Weather Service in relation to climate data and NAO. Phenological inter-annual variability and temporal trends were determined by using mean anomaly curves for Germany. For all phases, the mean trends derived by this method are similar to German averages of linear trends of single station records. Trend analysis using anomaly curves appears to be effective in relating seasonal phenological trends to climate or satellite data: Spring and summer phenological anomalies, such as leaf unfolding and flowering of different species, strongly correlate with temperature of the preceding months (R2 between 0.65 and 0.85, best one-variable model) andtheir onsets have advanced by 2.5 to 6.7 days per ° C warmer spring. Fruit ripening of Sambucus nigra and Aesculus hippocastanum, keyphenophases of early and mid autumn, correlate well with summer temperature (R2 0.74 and 0.84) and also advance by 6.5and 3.8 days per ° C (April–June). But the response of autumn colouringto warmer climate is more complex because two opposing factors influence autumn colouring dates. Higher spring and early summer temperatures advance leaf colouring, whereas warmer autumn temperatures delay leaf colouring. The percentage of variance explained by temperature (R2 0.22 to 0.51,best one-variable model) is less than for spring and summer phases. The length of the growing season is mainly increased by warmer springs (R2 0.48to 0.64, best one-variable model) and lengthened by 2.4 to 3.5 days/° C (February–April). The North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO) of January–March correlates with spring phenological anomalies(R2 0.37 to 0.56, best one-variable model), summer to mid autumn phases respond to NAO of February–March (R2 0.23 to 0.36) (both negativecorrelations). Leaf colouring is delayed by higher NAO of (August) September (R2 0.10to 0.18). NAO of January–February explains 0.41 to 0.44% of thevariance of the length of the growing season. 相似文献
8.
石家庄春季自然物候对气候变化的响应研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
分析了石家庄1965-2007年杨絮始落、鸭梨始花和刺槐盛花3种植物物候期的变化特征以及对气候的响应规律。结果表明：（1）石家庄春季物候期普遍提早,早春的物候期提前天数多,晚春物候期提早天数少。石家庄春季物候现象普遍存在着2～3年的周期。（2）通过计算石家庄春季物候与气温、日照和降水量的相关关系,发现与气温的关系最好,与降水日数表现出弱的相关性,与日照关系不明显,说明气温是影响石家座春季物候的主导气象因子,GDD是衡量植物热量供应的较好指标,而日照对物候期影响表现出不同物种和不同物候现象间的差异性特征。（3）石家庄春季物候期与ENSO事件也表现出一定的关系,在暖事件年以物候期偏早为主,在冷事件年无明显早晚趋势。 相似文献
9.
Historical dates of ice-affected flows for 16 rural, unregulated rivers in northern New England, USA were analyzed. The total annual days of ice-affected flow decreased significantly (p < 0.1) over the 20th century at 12 of the 16 rivers. On average, for the nine longest-record rivers, the total annual days of ice-affected flow decreased by 20 days from 1936 to 2000, with most of the decrease occurring from the 1960s to 2000. Four of the 16 rivers had significantly later first dates of ice-affected flow in the fall. Twelve of the 16 rivers had significantly earlier last dates of ice-affected flow in the spring. On average, the last dates became earlier by 11 days from 1936 to 2000 with most of the change occurring from the 1960s to 2000. The total annual days of ice-affected flow were significantly correlated with November through April air temperatures (r = −0.70) and with November through April precipitation (r = −0.52). The last spring dates were significantly correlated with March through April air temperatures (r = −0.73) and with January through April precipitation (r = −0.37). March mean river flows increased significantly at 13 of the 16 rivers in this study.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged. 相似文献
10.
春季霜冻是农业生产的主要气象灾害之一,该文利用毕节1990-2019年0 cm地温和气温资料,分析春季霜冻特征和霜期内不同天气现象下气温与0 cm地温关系。结果表明:近30 a毕节春季霜冻日数随时间呈显著减少趋势,特别在21世纪10年代减少速率跃增,终霜冻期随时间呈显著提早趋势。空间上春季霜冻日数自西向东递减,终霜冻期自东向西推迟,威宁大部和赫章西部高海拔山区是春季霜冻发生最频繁区域,且终霜冻在该区域显著偏晚。突变检验显示毕节春季霜冻日数的减少趋势呈现2个阶段性下降,在21世纪10年代后减少趋势显著,终霜冻提早明显,存在突变年。周期变化中春季霜冻日数存在准3 a和准8 a周期变化,其中3 a周期变化显著性最高。不同天气现象下春季霜冻期内日最低0 cm地温和日最低气温差异大,晴天辐射霜冻是毕节春季主要霜冻类型,期间日最低气温较日最低0 cm地温平均高出4.2℃,且存在月份差异。 相似文献
11.
Glenn A. Hodgkins 《Climatic change》2013,119(3-4):705-718
Many studies have shown that lake ice-out (break-up) dates in the Northern Hemisphere are useful indicators of late winter/early spring climate change. Trends in lake ice-out dates in New England, USA, were analyzed for 25, 50, 75, 100, 125, 150, and 175 year periods ending in 2008. More than 100 years of ice-out data were available for 19 of the 28 lakes in this study. The magnitude of trends over time depends on the length of the period considered. For the recent 25-year period, there was a mix of earlier and later ice-out dates. Lake ice-outs during the last 50 years became earlier by 1.8 days/decade (median change for all lakes with adequate data). This is a much higher rate than for longer historical periods; ice-outs became earlier by 0.6 days/decade during the last 75 years, 0.4 days/decade during the last 100 years, and 0.6 days/decade during the last 125 years. The significance of trends was assessed under the assumption of serial independence of historical ice-out dates and under the assumption of short and long term persistence. Hypolimnion dissolved oxygen (DO) levels are an important factor in lake eutrophication and coldwater fish survival. Based on historical data available at three lakes, 32 to 46 % of the interannual variability of late summer hypolimnion DO levels was related to ice-out dates; earlier ice-outs were associated with lower DO levels. 相似文献
12.
1961-2014年中国内陆农业区异常初、终霜日时空变化及其与环流因子的关系 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
利用中国内陆1961年以来734个气象台站0 cm地表最低温度作为初、终霜日的参考指标,运用概率密度函数方法定义了不同等级的霜冻指数,重点分析了全球气候状态转变后中国农业区初、终霜日稳定性,异常初、终霜日时空变化特征,以及环流因子变化对初、终霜日的影响。结果显示:（1）青藏高原地区在20世纪90年代之后初霜日明显推后、终霜日明显提前,无霜期明显延长;四川盆地东部、华南地区南部部分站点在20世纪90年代之后霜期缩短明显,出现低频率无霜年份,无霜日站点相对有所增多,出现向北扩展趋势,20世纪90年代之后扩展趋势明显。（2）20世纪80年代初、终霜日相对于其他时段稳定性最强,20世纪90年代稳定性最低,气候状态转变之后青藏高原和新疆南部地区初、终霜日稳定性较强区域面积明显增大;空间上四川盆地东部和华南区初、终霜日稳定性最低,其他区域初、终霜日稳定性相对较低,华南区霜日不稳定区分布范围在21世纪最初10年之后有所减小,稳定区北移明显。（3）异常初、终霜日发生频率:偏早初霜日>偏晚终霜日>特早初霜日>特晚终霜日,气候状态转变前后异常初、终霜日发生频率较高,20世纪90年代偏早初霜日高频率覆盖地区范围最大,其次是20世纪70年代偏早初霜日,气候状态的转变对异常初、终霜日的发生影响较大。（4）各农业区初霜日的推迟、终霜日的提前与极涡缩小、副热带高压北移有直接关系;极涡与副热带高压的位置、强度、面积变化对中国农业区初、终霜日多年气候状态的转变有一定的驱动作用。 相似文献
13.
Relationship between olive flowering and latitude in two Mediterranean countries (Italy and Tunisia)
F. Orlandi M. Msallem T. Bonofiglio A. Ben Dhiab C. Sgromo B. Romano M. Fornaciari 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2010,102(3-4):265-273
In phenological studies, the plant developments are analysed considering their relationships with seasonal meteorological conditions; moreover, the influences of geographical features on biological responses have to be also considered. Different studies analysed the influence of latitude on phenological phases to investigate the possible different magnitude of biological response. In our experience, this type of geographic evaluation was conducted considering one of the more important plant species of Mediterranean shrub, the olive (Olea europaea L.) in fifteen olive monitoring stations, four located in Tunisia and eleven in Italy, from the southern Zarzis area at 33° to the northern Perugia area at 43° of latitude. The olive flowering phenomenon was studied, utilising an aerobiological monitoring method through appropriate pollen traps located inside olive groves from 1999 to 2008. The olive monitored pollen grains were recognised and evaluated to obtain daily pollen concentrations to define the flowering dates in the different study areas. The biometeorological statistical analysis showed the 7°C threshold temperature and the single triangle method for growing degree days (GDD) yearly computing as the better ones in comparison to others. Moreover, the regression analysis between the dates of full flowering and the GDD amounts at the different monitoring latitudes permitted us to evidence the biological response of olive species in geographic regions with different climate patterns. The specific biological response at different latitude was investigated, the slope results, as flowering days per heat amounts, evidenced that olive species behaviours are very constant in consequence to similar meteorological conditions independently to latitude variations. Averagely, the relationships between plant’s phenology, temperature trends and geographical features are very close, even if the yearly mesoscale meteorological variations force to consider, year by year, phenological advances or delays as local events. 相似文献
14.
Spring Phenophases in Recent Decades Over Eastern China and Its Possible Link to Climate Changes 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
In light of the observed climate changes in recent decades over eastern China, we studied the changes in spring phenophases of woody plants observed at 16-stations during 1963–1996, and explored the possible link between the spring phenophases changes and climate changes before the phenophase onset. It is found that, in the region north of 33∘N (including Northeast, North China and the lower reaches of the Huaihe River), the phenophase advanced 1.1–4.3 days per decade for early spring and 1.4–5.4 days per decade for late spring, but in the eastern part of the southwest China it was dealyed by 2.9–6.9 days per decade in early spring and 2.4–6.2 days per decade in late spring. One outstanding feature is identified in Guangzhou in south China, where significant advance of 7.5 days per decade in early spring and delay of 4.6 days per decade in late spring were detected. Statistically siginficant correlation was found between the changes of spring phenophase and the temperatures of one or several months before the phenophase onset. The relationship between the trend of phenophase change and temperature change was highly non-linear (more sensitivity to cooling than to warming) and reached an asymptote 0.5∘C per decade, which may have implication in the responses of the ecosystem in a future global warming scenario. In addition, we also examined the link between the spring phenophase, and length and mean temperature of the growing season, and the analyses suggested that they were highly correlated as well. 相似文献
15.
In an attempt to contribute to studies on global climatic change, 110 years of temperature data for Firenze, Italy, were analysed.
Means and trends of annual and monthly temperatures (minimum, maximum and average) were analysed at three different time scales:
short (20 years), medium (36–38 years) and long (55 years). Comparative changes in extreme events viz. frosts in the first and second parts of the 20th century were also analysed. At short time scales, climatic change was found
in minimum and average temperatures but not in maximum temperatures. At all three time scales, the annual means of minimum,
maximum and average temperatures were significantly warmer in the last part than in the early part of the 20th century. The
monthly mean temperatures showed significant warming of winter months. Over the last four decades, minimum, maximum and average
temperatures had warmed by 0.4, 0.43 and 0.4 ∘C per decade, respectively, and if this trend continues, they will be warmer
by 4 ∘C by the end of the 21st century. The significant decline in days with subzero temperatures and frosts in the last half
of the 20th century, further substantiated the occurrence of climate change at this site. 相似文献
16.
Frost-free season lengthening and its potential cause in the Tibetan Plateau from 1960 to 2010 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Dan Zhang Wenhui Xu Jiayun Li Zhe Cai Di An 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,115(3-4):441-450
Frost-free season was an important index for extreme temperature, which was widely discussed in agriculture and applied meteorology research. The frost-free season changed, which was associated with global warming in the past few decades. In this study, the changes in three indices (the last frost day in spring, the first frost day in autumn, and the frost-free season length) of the frost-free season were investigated at 73 meteorological stations in the Tibetan Plateau from 1960 to 2010. Results showed that the last frost day in spring occurred earlier, significantly in 39 % of the 73 stations. For the regional average, the last frost day in spring occurred earlier, significantly at the rate of 1.9 days/decade during the last 50 years. The first frost day in autumn occurred later, significantly in 31 % of the stations, and the regional average rate was 1.5 days/decade from 1960 to 2010. The changing rate of the first frost day in autumn below 3,000 m was 1.8 times larger than the changing rate above 3,000 m. In addition, the first frost day in autumn above 3,000 m fluctuated dramatically before the early 1990s and then it was later sharply after the early 1990s. The frost-free season length increased significantly at almost all stations in the Tibetan Plateau from 1960 to 2010. For the regional average, the frost-free season lengthened at the rate of 3.1 days/decade. The changing rate of the frost-free season length below 3,000 m was more significant than the changing rate above 3,000 m. Eight indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation were employed to investigate the potential cause of the frost-free season length change in the Tibetan Plateau during the past 50 years. There was a significant relationship between the frost-free season length and the Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex indices. The weakening cold atmospheric circulation might be an essential factor to the Tibetan Plateau warming since 1960. 相似文献
17.
Global coupled climate model simulations of twentieth and twentyfirst century climate are analyzed for changes in frost days (defined as nighttime minima less than freezing). The model simulations agree with the observed pattern for late twentieth century of a greater decrease of frost days in the west and southwest USA compared to the rest of the country, and almost no change in frost days in fall compared to relatively larger decreases in spring. Associated with general increases of nighttime minimum temperatures, in the future climate with increased greenhouse gases (GHGs) the number of frost days is fewer almost everywhere, but there are greatest decreases over the western parts of the continents. The numbers of frost days are most consistently related to sea level pressure, with more frost days occurring when high pressure dominates on the monthly time scale in association with clearer skies and lower nighttime minimum temperatures. Spatial patterns of relative changes of frost days are indicative of regional scale atmospheric circulation changes that affect nighttime minimum temperatures. Increases of soil moisture and clouds also contribute, but play secondary roles. The linkages among soil moisture, clouds, sea level pressure, and diurnal temperature range are quantified by a statistical multiple regression model. Coefficients for present and future climate are similar among the predictors, indicating physical processes that affect frost days in present and future climates do not appreciably change. Only the intercept changes in association with the significant warming of the mean climate state. This study highlights the fact that, though there is a general decrease in the number of frost days with global warming, the processes that affect the pattern of those changes, and thus the regional changes of frost days, are influenced by several interrelated physical processes, with changes in regional atmospheric circulation generally being most important. 相似文献
18.
鲁西南木本植物生长季及物候期持续日数对气候变暖的响应 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
以1981-2010年中国鲁西南地区的植物为研究对象,采用统计分析法研究7种木本植物生长季与物候期持续日数对气候变暖的响应规律。结果表明：1981-2010年中国鲁西南地区气温呈极显著上升趋势（p<0.01）,随着气候变暖,木本植物春季物候期间隔缩短,秋季物候期间隔延长,全生长季延长,且全生长季变化趋势比各物候持续期变化趋势明显;展叶持续期主要与上月、当月和持续月平均气温呈负相关,其中梧桐展叶持续期与当月平均气温呈极显著负相关（p<0.01）;旱柳和刺槐开花持续期与持续月平均气温呈显著正相关（p<0.05）;叶变色持续期和落叶持续期与上月、当月、结束月和持续月平均气温呈正相关,其中旱柳与平均气温达到显著正相关（p<0.05）。木本植物全生长季与气温呈正相关,其中旱柳生长季变化对气候变暖的响应最敏感,其次是榆树、梧桐和楝树生长季变化对气候变暖的响应较敏感;随着年平均气温每升高1 ℃,植物生长季延长3.0-20.0 d;年平均最高气温每升高1℃,生长季延长5.0-14.0 d;年平均最低气温每升高1 ℃,生长季延长2.0-18.0 d。 相似文献
19.
利用1971-2010年河南省均匀分布的110个地面气象站霜的观测资料,采用线性倾向率和单相关分析法,对近40 a河南省初霜期、终霜期和无霜期的时空分布特征及其对气温的响应进行研究,利用M-K法分析霜期的突变特征。结果表明：1971-2010年河南省平均无霜期为221.3 d,纬度与初霜期（R=-0.806）和无霜期（R=-0.707）均呈显著负相关,与终霜期（R=0.557）呈显著正相关;初霜期以2.6 d/10 a的速率呈明显推迟（p<0.01）,而终霜期的线性变化趋势不明显,无霜期以4.7 d/10 a的速率呈明显延长（p<0.01）;初霜期、终霜期和无霜期的突变点均在1998年。从各地区看,初霜期在各地区呈明显推迟,豫西地区推迟趋势最大（3.5 d/10 a,p<0.01）;终霜期仅在豫西和豫南地区呈显著提前;除豫东地区外,无霜期在其余5个地区均呈明显延长,豫西地区延长趋势最大（7.7 d/10 a,p<0.01）。从各观测站霜期的变化趋势空间分布来看,初霜期显著推后、终霜期显著提前和无霜期明显延长的站点分布在豫西和豫南地区。河南省初霜期与10月、终霜期与3月气温因子相关性较强;初霜期推迟和终霜期提前主要由气温升高引起的,其中平均最低气温是最重要的影响因素。初霜期推迟和终霜期提前导致无霜期延长。 相似文献
20.
利用吐鲁番东坎农业气象试验站和鄯善气象站近52a（1960-2011年）冬季逐日资料,分析入冬期、冬季平均气温、极端最低气温、低温日数、负积温变化特征,以及特色林果葡萄、红枣冻害发生年最低气温的变化特征,探讨冬季气温变化与冻害发生的关系,总结冻害成灾指标,为防止果树冻害提供理论依据。分析结果表明：吐鲁番盆地冬季平均气温和最低气温呈上升趋势,入冬期偏晚,冬季结束时间提早,冬季持续日数缩短;冬季气温在1985年发生突变,存在7a的周期变化。在无稳定积雪的情况下,最低气温负积温较历年平均值低180．0℃以上,日最低气温≤-18．0℃持续15d以上,且日最低气温连续≤-20．0℃持续5d以上,休眠期的红枣、杏树花芽会发生中度冻害;最低气温负积温较常年低200．0℃以上,日最低气温≤-20．0℃持续7d以上,且日最低气温≤-21．0℃持续5d以上,红枣、杏树及无积雪、覆土厚度〈30cm的葡萄会发生严重冻害。 相似文献