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1.
We have developed a new, unified modeling technique for the total simulation of seismic waves, ocean acoustic waves, and tsunamis resulting from earthquakes, based on a finite difference method simulation of the 3D equations of motion. Using the equilibrium between the pressure gradient and gravity in these equations, tsunami propagation is naturally incorporated in the simulation based on the equations of motion. The performance of the parallel computation for the newly developed tsunami-coupled equations using a domain partitioning procedure shows a high efficiency coefficient with a large number of CPU cores. The simulation results show how the near-field term associated with seismic waves produced by shallow earthquakes leads to a permanent coseismic deformation of the ground surface, which gives rise to the initial tsunami on the sea surface. Propagation of the tsunami along the sea surface as a gravity wave, and ocean acoustic waves in seawater with high-frequency multiple P-wave reflections between the free surface and sea bottom, are also clearly demonstrated by the present simulations. We find a good agreement in the tsunami waveform between our results and those obtained by other simulations based on an analytical model and the Navier–Stokes equations, demonstrating the effectiveness of the tsunami-coupling simulation model. Based on this simulation, we show that the ratio of the amplitude of ocean acoustic waves to the height of the tsunami, both of which are produced by the earthquake, strongly depends on the rise time of the earthquake rupture. This ratio can be used to obtain a more detailed understanding of the source rupture processes of subduction zone earthquakes, and for implementing an improved tsunami alert system for slow tsunami earthquakes.  相似文献   

2.
We develop stochastic approaches to determine the potential for tsunami generation from earthquakes by combining two interrelated time series, one for the earthquake events, and another for the tsunami events. Conditional probabilities for the occurrence of tsunamis as a function of time are calculated by assuming that the inter-arrival times of the past events are lognormally distributed and by taking into account the time of occurrence of the last event in the time series. An alternative approach is based on the total probabilitiy theorem. Then, the probability for the tsunami occurrence equals the product of the ratio, r (= tsunami generating earthquakes/total number of earthquakes) by the conditional probability for the occurrence of the next earthquake in the zone. The probabilities obtained by the total probability theorem are bounded upwards by the ratio r and, therefore, they are not comparable with the conditional probabilities. The two methods were successfully tested in three characteristic seismic zones of the Pacific Ocean: South America, Kuril-Kamchatka and Japan. For time intervals of about 20 years and over the probabilities exceed 0.50 in the three zones. It has been found that the results depend on the approach applied. In fact, the conditional probabilities of tsunami occurrence in Japan are slightly higher than in the South America region and in Kuril-Kamchatka they are clearly lower than in South America. Probabilities calculated by the total probability theorem are systematically higher in South America than in Japan while in Kuril-Kamchatka they are significantly lower than in Japan. The stochastic techniques tested in this paper are promising for the tsunami potential assessment in other tsunamigenic regions of the world.  相似文献   

3.
采用球坐标系下非线性浅水波方程, 研究日本本州M9.0大地震引发的海啸对中国东南沿海的影响, 并计算了冲绳海槽构造带上3个不同段落可能发生潜在地震引发的海啸, 分析这些海啸与日本大海啸的浪高和走时关系. 结果表明, 日本地震海啸模拟结果与日本当地报道及中国东南沿海7个验潮站的报道结果相符. 冲绳海槽构造带中段可能发生的3次不同震级(M7.0, M7.5, M8.0)潜在地震引发的海啸到达中国东南沿海的时间比日本海啸提前约4个小时, 从震源区传播3个多小时即可到达华东沿海部分验潮站. 冲绳海槽M7.5潜在地震海啸在验潮站上计算的波高与日本海啸相当, 中冲绳海槽M8.0潜在地震海啸在大陈站的波高将超过0.9 m, 在坎门站波高将超过1.8 m. 北冲绳海槽的潜在地震海啸威胁主要集中在江苏盐城、 上海一带, 南冲绳海啸主要对台湾东北部和浙江沿海产生威胁. 本文对冲绳海槽构造带上潜在地震引发海啸的模拟结果, 可为中国东南沿海地区的防震减灾、 海啸预警提供有意义的参考.   相似文献   

4.
Sources of Tsunami and Tsunamigenic Earthquakes in Subduction Zones   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
—We classified tsunamigenic earthquakes in subduction zones into three types earth quakes at the plate interface (typical interplate events), earthquakes at the outer rise, within the subducting slab or overlying crust (intraplate events), and "tsunami earthquakes" that generate considerably larger tsunamis than expected from seismic waves. The depth range of a typical interplate earthquake source is 10–40km, controlled by temperature and other geological parameters. The slip distribution varies both with depth and along-strike. Recent examples show very different temporal change of slip distribution in the Aleutians and the Japan trench. The tsunamigenic coseismic slip of the 1957 Aleutian earthquake was concentrated on an asperity located in the western half of an aftershock zone 1200km long. This asperity ruptured again in the 1986 Andreanof Islands and 1996 Delarof Islands earthquakes. By contrast, the source of the 1994 Sanriku-oki earthquake corresponds to the low slip region of the previous interplate event, the 1968 Tokachi-oki earthquake. Tsunamis from intraplate earthquakes within the subducting slab can be at least as large as those from interplate earthquakes; tsunami hazard assessments must include such events. Similarity in macroseismic data from two southern Kuril earthquakes illustrates difficulty in distinguishing interplate and slab events on the basis of historical data such as felt reports and tsunami heights. Most moment release of tsunami earthquakes occurs in a narrow region near the trench, and the concentrated slip is responsible for the large tsunami. Numerical modeling of the 1996 Peru earthquake confirms this model, which has been proposed for other tsunami earthquakes, including 1896 Sanriku, 1946 Aleutian and 1992 Nicaragua.  相似文献   

5.
Operational prediction of near-field tsunamis in all existing Tsunami Warning Systems (TWSs) is based on fast determination of the position and size of submarine earthquakes. Exceedance of earthquake magnitude above some established threshold value, which can vary over different tsunamigenic zones, results in issuing a warning signal. Usually, a warning message has several (from 2 to 5) grades reflecting the degree of tsunami danger and sometimes contains expected wave heights at the coast. Current operational methodology is based on two main assumptions: (1) submarine earthquakes above some threshold magnitude can generate dangerous tsunamis and (2) the height of a resultant tsunami is, in general, proportional to the earthquake magnitude. While both assumptions are physically reasonable and generally correct, statistics of issued warnings are far from being satisfactory. For the last 55 years, up to 75% of warnings for regional tsunamis have turned out to be false, while each TWS has had at least a few cases of missing dangerous tsunamis. This paper presents the results of investigating the actual dependence of tsunami intensity on earthquake magnitude as it can be retrieved from historical observations and discusses the degree of correspondence of the above assumptions to real observations. Tsunami intensity, based on the Soloviev-Imamura scale is used as a measure of tsunami “size”. Its correlation with the M s and M w magnitudes is investigated based on historical data available for the instrumental period of observations (from 1900 to present).  相似文献   

6.
Finite Fault Modeling in a Tsunami Warning Center Context   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The US NOAA/NWS tsunami warning centers have relied on earthquake location and depth, and scalar measures of earthquake size and slowness to assess the potential for the generation of a destructive tsunami by an earthquake. Recent earthquakes, such as Peru 2001, Sumatra 2004 and the Java 2006, manifest some of the difficulties the warning centers face as they try to cope with unusual earthquakes. We have undertaken a study of a simple teleseismic waveform inverse model and applied it to the earthquakes of June 23, 2001 in Peru and of July 17, 2006 in Java. Synthetic numerical experiments suggest that the most salient features of the rupture history of an earthquake can be recovered. Furthermore the calculations can be conducted quickly enough to be useful in a warning center context. We have applied our technique to the Peru 2001 and recent Java 2006 earthquakes. Our overall results are consistent with those obtained from other studies. The results show why the Peru event initially looked slow to the US tsunami warning centers and that the Java event is a truly slow or tsunami earthquake. Clearly, the warning centers stand to benefit from an increased understanding of the earthquakes they monitor. Furthermore, better knowledge of the slip distribution along a fault will improve tsunami wave-height forecasts.  相似文献   

7.
We assess the tsunami hazard posed to New Zealand by the Kermadec and southern New Hebrides subduction margins. Neither of these subduction zones has produced tsunami large enough to cause significant damage in New Zealand over the past 150?years of well-recorded history. However, as this time frame is short compared to the recurrence interval for major tsunamigenic earthquakes on many of the Earth’s subduction zones, it should not be assumed that what has been observed so far is representative of the long term. For each of these two subduction zones we present plate kinematic and fault-locking results from block modelling of earthquake slip vector data and GPS velocities. The results are used to estimate the current rates of strain accumulation on the plate interfaces where large tsunamigenic earthquakes typically occur. We also review data on the larger historical earthquakes that have occurred on these margins, as well as the Global CMT catalogue of events since 1976. Using this information we have developed a set of scenarios for large earthquakes which have been used as initial conditions for the COMCOT tsunami code to estimate the subsequent tsunami propagation in the southwest Pacific, and from these the potential impact on New Zealand has been evaluated. Our results demonstrate that there is a significant threat posed to the Northland and Coromandel regions of New Zealand should a large earthquake (M w ?8.5) occur on the southern or middle regions of the Kermadec Trench, and that a similarly large earthquake on the southern New Hebrides Trench has the potential to strongly impact on the far northern parts of New Zealand close to the southern end of the submarine Three Kings Ridge. We propose logic trees for the magnitude–frequency parameters of large earthquakes originating on each trench, which are intended to form the basis for future probabilistic studies.  相似文献   

8.
Onshore tsunami deposits resulting from the 1993 Southwest Hokkaido and 1983 Japan Sea earthquakes were described to evaluate the feasibility of tsunami deposits for inferring paleoseismic events along submarine faults. Tsunami deposits were divided into three types, based on their composition and aerial distribution: (A) deposits consisting only of floating materials, (B) locally distributed siliclastic deposits, and (C) widespread siliclastic deposits. The most widely distributed tsunami deposits consist of the first two types. Type C deposits are mostly limited to areas where the higher tsunami runup was observed. The scale of tsunami represented by vertical tsunami runup is an important factor controlling the volume of tsunami deposits. The thickest deposits, about 10 cm, occur behind coastal dunes. To produce thick siliclastic tsunami deposits, a suitable source area, such as sand bar or dune, must be available in addition to sufficient vertical tsunami runup. Estimation of the amounts of erosion and deposition indicates that tsunami deposits were derived from both onshore and shoreface regions. The composition and grain size of the tsunami deposits strongly reflect the nature of the sedimentary materials of their source area. Sedimentary structures of the tsunami deposits suggest both low and high flow régimes. Consequently, it seems very difficult to identify tsunami deposits based only on grain size distribution or sedimentary structure of a single site in ancient successions.  相似文献   

9.
Local Tsunamis and Distributed Slip at the Source   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
—Variations in the local tsunami wave field are examined in relation to heterogeneous slip distributions that are characteristic of many shallow subduction zone earthquakes. Assumptions inherent in calculating the coseismic vertical displacement field that defines the initial condition for tsunami propagation are examined. By comparing the seafloor displacement from uniform slip to that from an ideal static crack, we demonstrate that dip-directed slip variations significantly affect the initial cross-sectional wave profile. Because of the hydrodynamic stability of tsunami wave forms, these effects directly impact estimates of maximum runup from the local tsunami. In most cases, an assumption of uniform slip in the dip direction significantly underestimates the maximum amplitude and leading wave steepness of the local tsunami. Whereas dip-directed slip variations affect the initial wave profile, strike-directed slip variations result in wavefront-parallel changes in amplitude that are largely preserved during propagation from the source region toward shore, owing to the effects of refraction. Tests of discretizing slip distributions indicate that small fault surface elements of dimensions similar to the source depth can acceptably approximate the vertical displacement field in comparison to continuous slip distributions. Crack models for tsunamis generated by shallow subduction zone earthquakes indicate that a rupture intersecting the free surface results in approximately twice the average slip. Therefore, the observation of higher slip associated with tsunami earthquakes relative to typical subduction zone earthquakes of the same magnitude suggests that tsunami earthquakes involve rupture of the seafloor, whereas rupture of deeper subduction zone earthquakes may be imbedded and not reach the seafloor.  相似文献   

10.
— Tsunamis are generated by displacement or motion of large volumes of water. While there are several documented cases of tsunami generation by volcanic eruptions and landslides, most observed tsunamis are attributed to earthquakes. Kinematic models of tsunami generation by earthquakes — where specified fault size and slip determine seafloor and sea-surface vertical motion — quantitatively explain far-field tsunami wave records. On the other hand, submarine landslides in subduction zones and other tectonic settings can generate large tsunamis that are hazardous along near-source coasts. Furthermore, the ongoing exploration of the oceans has found evidence for large paleo-landslides in many places, not just subduction zones. Thus, we want to know the relative contribution of faulting and landslides to tsunami generation. For earthquakes, only a small fraction of the minimum earthquake energy (less than 1% for typical parameter choices for shallow underthrusting earthquakes) can be converted into tsunami wave energy; yet, this is enough energy to generate terrible tsunamis. For submarine landslides, tsunami wave generation and landslide motion interact in a dynamic coupling. The dynamic problem of a 2-D translational slider block on a constant-angle slope can be solved using a Green's function approach for the wave transients. The key result is that the largest waves are generated when the ratio of initial water depth above the block to downslope vertical drop of the block H 0 /W sin δ is less than 1. The conversion factor of gravitational energy into tsunami wave energy varies from 0% for a slow-velocity slide in deep water, to about 50% for a fast-velocity slide in shallow water and a motion abruptly truncated. To compare maximum tsunami wave amplitudes in the source region, great earthquakes produce amplitudes of a few meters at a wavelength fixed by the fault width of 100 km or so. For submarine landslides, tsunami wave heights — as measured by b, block height — are small for most of the parameter regime. However, for low initial dynamic friction and values of H 0 /W sin δ less than 1, tsunami wave heights in the downslope and upslope directions reach b and b/4, respectively.Wavelengths of these large waves scale with block width. For significant submarine slides, the value of b can range from meters up to the kilometer scale. Thus, the extreme case of efficient tsunami generation by landslides produces dramatic hazards scenarios.  相似文献   

11.
The present study focuses on evaluation of the maximum and minimum water levels caused by tsunamis as risk factors for operation and management at nuclear power facilities along the coastal area of Japan. Tsunamis generated by submarine earthquakes are examined, basing literature reviews and databases of information on historical tsunami events and run-up heights. For simulation of water level along the coast, a numerical calculation system should be designed with computational regions covering a particular site. Also the calculation system should be verified by comparison of historical and calculated tsunami heights. At the beginning of the tsunami assessment, the standard faults, their locations, mechanisms and maximum magnitudes should be carefully estimated by considering historical earthquake-induced tsunamis and seismo-tectonics at each area. Secondly, the range of errors in the model parameters should be considered since earthquakes and tsunamis are natural phenomena that involve natural variability as well as errors in estimating parameters. For these reasons, uncertainty-induced errors should be taken into account in the process of tsunami assessment with parametric study of the tsunami source model. The element tsunamis calculated by the standard fault models with the errors would be given for the design. Then, the design tsunami can be selected among the element tsunamis with the most significant impact, maximum and minimum water levels, on the site, bearing in mind the possible errors in the numerical calculation system. Finally, the design tsunami is verified by comparison with the run-up heights of historical tsunamis, ensuring that the design tsunami is selected as the highest of all historical and possible future tsunamis at the site.  相似文献   

12.
试论地震海啸的成因   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1       下载免费PDF全文
经统计与研究,多数地震是不引发海啸的,故地震与海啸不存在直接的因果关系。这是因为引发地震海啸(特别是大的地震海啸)的直接原因,主要是海底地震所造成的次生的巨大体积的海底滑坡和崩塌,而不是海底地震时海底地面的同震错断与变形。因此,若未来震中附近存在不稳定海底滑坡和崩塌体,只要发生地震,不论震级大小与震源深浅,也不论震源类型(即倾滑或走滑)都可引起海底滑坡和崩塌,进而引发海啸。若未来震中附近不存在不稳定海底滑坡和崩塌体,再大震级的地震,即使是倾滑型地震也不能引发海啸  相似文献   

13.
基于强震台网的我国沿海海啸走时预警   总被引:5,自引:1,他引:4  
经济快速发展的中国沿海地区,面临着潜在海啸袭击危险。海啸传播走时分析是海啸预警系统的重要组成部分。本文基于强震台网提供的地震要素,从理论上讨论海啸预警时间计算方法。在球坐标系下,建立了远洋海啸传播模型,采用差分技术,实现远洋海啸传播数值模拟,首次针对我国主要城市进行了海啸走时计算,分析了我国沿海走时特点,指出了未来发生在太平洋的远洋海啸对我国的长江三角洲会有较大影响。本文计算海啸走时方法可以为我国建设的新一代基于数值海啸预警系统提供技术支持。  相似文献   

14.
Tsunami is one of the most devastating natural coastal disasters. Most of large tsunamis are generated by submarine earthquakes occurring in subduction zones. Tsunamis can also be triggered by volcano eruptions and large landslides. There are many records about "sea-overflow" in Chinese ancient books, which are not proved to be tsunamis. Tectonics and historical records analysis are import to forecast and prevention of tsunami. Consider the tectonic environment of the China sea, the possibility of huge damage caused by the offshore tsunami is very small. And the impact of the ocean tsunami on the Bohai sea, the Yellow sea, and the East China sea is also small. But in the South China Sea, the Manila subduction zone has been identified as a high hazardous tsunamigenic earthquake source region. No earthquake larger than MW7.6 has been recorded in the past 100a in this region, suggesting a high probability for larger earthquakes in the future. If a tsunamigenic earthquake were to occur in this region in the near future, a tragedy with the magnitude similar to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami could repeat itself. In this paper, based on tectonics and historical records analysis, we have demonstrated that potential for a strong future earthquake along the Manila subduction zone is real. Using a numerical model, we have also shown that most countries in the South China Sea will be affected by the tsunamis generated by the future earthquake. For China, it implies that the maximum wave height over 4.0 meter on China mainland, especially the Pearl River Estuary. But the island, local relief maybe influence the maximum wave. But it takes nearly 3 hours to attack China mainland, if there is the operational tsunami warning system in place in this region, should be greatly reduced losses. And the simulated results are conformable to historical records. It indicates that the tsunami hazards from Manila trench to China mainland worthy of our attention and prevention.  相似文献   

15.
Japan’s 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and the accompanying tsunami have reminded us of the potential tsunami hazards from the Manila and Ryukyu trenches to the South China and East China Seas. Statistics of historical seismic records from nearly the last 4 decades have shown that major earthquakes do not necessarily agree with the local Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The probability of a mega-earthquake may be higher than we have previously estimated. Furthermore, we noted that the percentages of tsunami-associated earthquakes are much higher in major events, and the earthquakes with magnitudes equal to or greater than 8.8 have all triggered tsunamis in the past approximately 100 years. We will emphasize the importance of a thorough study of possible tsunami scenarios for hazard mitigation. We focus on several hypothetical earthquake-induced tsunamis caused by M w 8.8 events along the Manila and Ryukyu trenches. We carried out numerical simulations based on shallow-water equations (SWE) to predict the tsunami dynamics in the South China and East China Seas. By analyzing the computed results we found that the height of the potential surge in China’s coastal area caused by earthquake-induced tsunamis may reach a couple of meters high. Our preliminary results show that tsunamis generated in the Manila and Ryukyu trenches could pose a significant threat to Chinese coastal cities such as Shanghai, Hong Kong and Macao. However, we did not find the highest tsunami wave at Taiwan, partially because it lies right on the extension of an assumed fault line. Furthermore, we put forward a multi-scale model with higher resolution, which enabled us to investigate the edge waves diffracted around Taiwan Island with a closer view.  相似文献   

16.
We explored the distributional changes in tsunami height along the eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula resulting from virtual and historical tsunami earthquakes. The results confirm significant distributional changes in tsunami height depending on the location and magnitude of earthquakes. We further developed a statistical model to jointly analyse tsunami heights from multiple events, considering the functional relationships; we estimated parameters conveying earthquake characteristics in a Weibull distribution, all within a Bayesian regression framework. We found the proposed model effective and informative for the estimation of tsunami hazard analysis from an earthquake of a given magnitude at a particular location. Specifically, several applications presented in this study showed that the proposed Bayesian approach has the advantage of conveying the uncertainty of the parameter estimates and its substantial effect on estimating tsunami risk.  相似文献   

17.
The nature of tsunami sources is reviewed, including source duration, displacement amplitudes, and areas and volumes of selected past earthquakes, slumps and slides that have or may have generated a tsunami. This review shows that the velocity of spreading of submarine slides and slumps (1–100 m/s) can be comparable to the long wavelength tsunami velocity (30–140 m/s for water depth 100<h<2000 m). In contrast, typical velocities of spreading dislocations during most earthquakes are one order of magnitude larger (2–3 km/s). Other significant differences between earthquake and slide and slump sources are that the balance of the total uplifted material in the case of slides is essentially zero, while for earthquakes it can be considerable, and that the vertical displacements for slides and slumps, per unit area of their horizontal projection, can be orders of magnitude larger than during earthquakes. This can result in high concentrations of the total change in the potential energy of fluid, above the source, over much smaller areas than during earthquakes.  相似文献   

18.
在东海潜在震源区冲绳海槽假定了五个震源点,根据Steven地震海啸地震参数经验值作为初始条件,分别考虑6.5、7.0、7.5、8.0、8.5、9.0级地震条件下的30个震例,采用数值模拟的方法,对海啸在东海传播过程进行情境分析,特别是对上海沿岸地区可能会遭受的海啸灾害做了较为精细的研究.结果发现:小于8.0级的震例对上海地区几乎不会造成影响;8.0级震例只有最北端震源点震例会对上海地区有明显影响;8.5级以及9.0级震级基本上均会对上海沿岸地区造成较大的影响.特别是冲绳海槽北段9.0级震例可能会对上海沿岸局部地区造成危害,最大波高可达3.9m.  相似文献   

19.
The best-fit distribution of the tsunami height was investigated along the Eastern Coast of Korean Peninsula. Firstly, the tsunami heights corresponding to the nine probable undersea earthquakes were obtained along the coastline using the numerical simulation. The method of L-moment ratio diagram was used to identify the best-fit probability density function of the tsunami heights caused by each undersea earthquake. The result indicates the generalized Pareto distribution is the best-fit distribution representing the tsunami heights regardless of the characteristics of the undersea earthquakes. This is particularly because the area of high tsunami heights and its relative magnitude to the adjacent locations were similar for the most simulations cases. In addition, this study further investigated the reason why the tsunami height distribution is not represented by the log-normal (LN) distribution as suggested by the previous studies. Result of the investigation indicates that the log-normality of the tsunami heights can be preserved when the length of a coastal line is not long such that the homogeneity of the length of the wave propagation paths reaching at different locations of the coastal line is preserved. This subsequently secures the central limit theorem making the distribution of the tsunami heights have the LN distribution. As the length of the coastal line increases, the deviation of the tsunami height distribution from the log-normality increases.  相似文献   

20.
The initial information and requirements for developing a seismologic observation system and data-processing and transfer tools for a tsunami warning system and its functions and tasks are considered. The structure of the seismologic observation system for the tsunami warning service (TWS) in the Russian Far East is proposed. A study of general technical and methodological problems is carried out to increase the efficiency for urgent tsunami prediction from continuous seismic monitoring data of territories of the Russian Far East and the world. Special attention is paid to the problem of tsunami prediction from seismologic data on strong earthquakes in near zone of a protected territory (up to 200 km).  相似文献   

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