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1.
Three-dimensional general circulation models (GCMs) are 'state-of-the-art' tools for projecting possible changes in climate. Scenarios constructed for the Czech Republic are based on daily outputs of the ECHAM-GCM in the central European region. Essential findings, derived from validating, procedures are summarized and changes in variables between the control and perturbed experiments are examined. The resulting findings have been used in selecting the most proper methods of generating climate change projections for assessing possible hydrological and agricultural impacts of climate change in selected exposure units. The following weather variables have been studied: Daily extreme temperatures, daily mean temperature, daily sum of global solar radiation, and daily precipitation amounts. Due to some discrepancies revealed, the temperature series for changed climate conditions (2×CO 2 ) have been created with the help of temperature differences between the control and perturbed runs, and the precipitation series have been derived from an incremental scenario based on an intercomparison of the GCMs' precipitation performance in the region. Solar radiation simulated by the ECHAM was not available and, therefore, it was generated using regression techniques relating monthly means of daily extreme temperatures and global radiation sums. The scenarios published in the paper consist of monthly means of all temperatures, their standard deviations, and monthly means of solar radiation and precipitation amounts. Daily weather series, the necessary input to impact models, are created (i) by the additive or multiplicative modification of observed weather daily series or (ii) by generating synthetic time series with the help of a weather generator whose parameters have been modified in accord with the suggested climate change scenarios.  相似文献   

2.
The aim of this study is to enhance the understanding of the occurrence of flood‐generating events in urban areas by analysing the relationship between large‐scale atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation events, extreme sea water level events and their simultaneous occurrence, respectively. To describe the atmospheric circulation, we used the Lamb circulation type (LCT) classification and re‐grouped it into Lamb circulation classes (LCC). The daily LCCs/LCTs were connected with rare precipitation and water‐level events in Aarhus, a Danish coastal city. Westerly and cyclonic LCCs (W, C, SW and NW) showed a significantly high occurrence of extreme precipitation. Similarly, for extreme water‐level events westerly LCCs (W and SW) showed a significantly high occurrence. Significantly low occurrence of extreme precipitation and water‐level events was obtained in easterly LCCs (NE, E and SE). For concurrent events, significantly high occurrence was obtained in LCC W. We assessed the change in LCC occurrence frequency in the future based on two regional climate models (RCMs). The projections indicate that the westerly directions in LCCs are expected to increase in the future. Consequently, simultaneous occurrence of extreme water level and precipitation events is expected to increase in the future as a result of change in LCC frequencies. The RCM projections for LCC frequencies are uncertain because the representation of current LCCs is poor; a large number of days cannot be classified and the frequencies of the days that can be classified differ from the observed time series. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
This article aims to identify the large‐scale climate variables that yield significant statistical relationships with precipitation and discharge for a British river basin (Dyfi). Ranked correlation analysis was performed between gridded ERA‐40 atmospheric data and Dyfi precipitation and discharge for individual months. Precipitation and discharge demonstrate significant negative correlation with mean sea level pressure (MSLP). Strongest MSLP correlation areas move from north of Britain in winter to central Britain in summer; this shift is associated with a displacement of geopotential (Z) and zonal wind (U). Movement of significant correlation regions (not captured by the North Atlantic Oscillation Index) highlights the dynamic nature of precipitation and river flow generating weather systems throughout the year. Existence of strong significant correlation shows potential for exploiting large‐scale climate variables in forecasting precipitation and river flow in Britain. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
High-frequency filtering of strong-motion records   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2  
The influence of noise in strong-motion records is most problematic at low and high frequencies where the signal to noise ratio is commonly low compared to that in the mid-spectrum. The impact of low-frequency noise (<1 Hz) on strong-motion intensity parameters such as ground velocities, displacements and response spectral ordinates can be dramatic and consequentially it has become standard practice to low-cut (high-pass) filter strong-motion data with corner frequencies often chosen based on the shape of Fourier amplitude spectra and the signal-to-noise ratio. It has been shown that response spectral ordinates should not be used beyond some fraction of the corner period (reciprocal of the corner frequency) of the low-cut filter. This article examines the effect of high-frequency noise (>5 Hz) on computed pseudo-absolute response spectral accelerations (PSAs). In contrast to the case of low-frequency noise our analysis shows that filtering to remove high-frequency noise is only necessary in certain situations and that PSAs can often be used up to 100 Hz even if much lower high-cut corner frequencies are required to remove the noise. This apparent contradiction can be explained by the fact that PSAs are often controlled by ground accelerations associated with much lower frequencies than the natural frequency of the oscillator because path and site attenuation (often modelled by Q and κ, respectively) have removed the highest frequencies. We demonstrate that if high-cut filters are to be used, then their corner frequencies should be selected on an individual basis, as has been done in a few recent studies.  相似文献   

5.
Using the defined sensitivity index, the sensitivity of streamflow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture to climate change was investigated in four catchments in the Haihe River basin. Climate change contained three parts: annual precipitation and temperature change and the change of the percentage of precipitation in the flood season (Pf). With satisfying monthly streamflow simulation using the variable infiltration capacity model, the sensitivity was estimated by the change of simulated hydrological variables with hypothetical climatic scenarios and observed climatic data. The results indicated that (i) the sensitivity of streamflow would increase as precipitation or Pf increased but would decrease as temperature increased; (ii) the sensitivity of evapotranspiration and soil moisture would decrease as precipitation or temperature increased, but it to Pf varied in different catchments; and (iii) hydrological variables were more sensitive to precipitation, followed by Pf, and then temperature. The nonlinear response of streamflow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture to climate change could provide a reference for water resources planning and management under future climate change scenarios in the Haihe River basin. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
Some previous global and regional studies have indicated teleconnection between the extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation (SO) and Turkish climate and hydrologic variables; however, they failed to suggest a strong correlation structure. In this study, categorised Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and Multivariate ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) index (MEI) series were used to examine the far‐reaching effects of the SO on temperature, precipitation and streamflow patterns in Turkey. These SO indicators were categorised into five subgroups according to their empirical distributions. Correlations between the categorised SO indicators and three analysis variables were computed using the Spearman's rho from lag‐0 to lag‐4. Significance of calculated correlations was tested at the 0·01 level for station‐based analysis and at the 0·05 level for regional analysis. Temperature records demonstrated significant correlations with the categorised SOI and MEI in nearly half of the entire stations. For some categories, precipitation and streamflow were found to be correlated with the SO indicators in some stations mainly in western Turkey. Regional analyses of temperature and precipitation revealed a clear and strong correlation structure with the categorised SO indicators on a large portion of Turkey. This was not concluded by the earlier pertinent studies. Besides, this study showed that significant correlations were obtained not only for the SO extreme phases (namely, El Nino and La Nina) but also for neutral and moderate phases of the SO. Plausible explanations for the observed teleconnection are presented. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
In this study, the applicability of the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) in downscaling precipitation in the Yangtze River basin, China was investigated. The investigation includes the calibration of the SDSM model by using large-scale atmospheric variables encompassing NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the validation of the model using independent period of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the general circulation model (GCM) outputs of scenarios A2 and B2 of the HadCM3 model, and the prediction of the future regional precipitation scenarios. Selected as climate variables for downscaling were measured daily precipitation data (1961–2000) from 136 weather stations in the Yangtze River basin. The results showed that: (1) there existed good relationship between the observed and simulated precipitation during the calibration period of 1961–1990 as well as the validation period of 1991–2000. And the results of simulated monthly and seasonal precipitation were better than that of daily. The average R 2 values between the simulated and observed monthly and seasonal precipitation for the validation period were 0.78 and 0.91 respectively for the whole basin, which showed that the SDSM had a good applicability on simulating precipitation in the Yangtze River basin. (2) Under both scenarios A2 and B2, during the prediction period of 2010–2099, the change of annual mean precipitation in the Yangtze River basin would present a trend of deficit precipitation in 2020s; insignificant changes in the 2050s; and a surplus of precipitation in the 2080s as compared to the mean values of the base period. The annual mean precipitation would increase by about 15.29% under scenario A2 and increase by about 5.33% under scenario B2 in the 2080s. The winter and autumn might be the more distinct seasons with more predicted changes of precipitation than in other seasons. And (3) there would be distinctive spatial distribution differences for the change of annual mean precipitation in the river basin, but the most of Yangtze River basin would be dominated by the increasing trend.  相似文献   

8.
Stable isotopic composition of precipitation as preserved in continental proxy climate archives (e.g., ice cores, lacustrine sediments, tree rings, groundwater, and organic matter) can sensitively record fluctuations in local meteorological variables. These are important natural climatic tracers to understand the atmospheric circulation patterns and hydrological cycle and to reconstruct past climate from archives. Precipitation was collected at Dokriani Glacier to understand the response of glaciers to climate change in the Garhwal Central Himalaya, Upper Ganga Basin. The local meteoric water line deviates from the global meteoric water line and is useful for the identification of moisture source in the region. The data suggest different clusters of isotopic signals, that is, summer (June–September) and winter (November–April); the mean values of δ18O, δD, and d ‰ during summer are ?13.03‰, ?84.49‰, and 19.78 ‰, respectively, whereas during winter, the mean values of δ18O, δD, and d ‰ are ?7.59‰, ?36.28‰, and 24.46 ‰, respectively. Backward wind trajectory analysis ascertains that the major source of precipitation during summer is from the Indian Summer Monsoon and during winter from the westerlies. Regression analysis has been carried out in order to establish interrelationship between the precipitation isotopic signatures and meteorological variables such as air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation. Temperature and precipitation have good correlation with the isotopic signatures of precipitation with R2 values >.5, suggesting that both temperature and amount effects prevail in the study region. Multiple regression analysis found strong relationships for both the seasons. The relationship of deuterium excess with δ18O, relative humidity, and precipitation are significant for the winter season. No significant relationships of deuterium excess were found with other meteorological variables such as temperature and radiation. The correlation and regression analysis performed are significant and valuable for interpretation of processes in the hydrological cycle as well as for interpretation of palaeoclimate records from the region.  相似文献   

9.
This note is an extension of earlier works that presented probability distribution functions for amplitudes of the peaks (the highest, the second highest … the m-th highest) in response of deterministic single degree-of-freedom (SDOF) and multi degree-of-freedom (MDOF) structures to ground motion, with deterministic Fourier spectrum and duration. It shows how these probability distribution functions can be evaluated if the Fourier spectrum and duration of the excitation are random variables specified via distribution functions. Two cases are considered: (l) when the structural model is deterministic, and (2) when the modal frequencies are random variables. The procedure presented here approximates the transfer function of the structural response by Dirac delta functions at the modal frequencies, and is applicable to multi-storey buildings with small modal damping, and with natural frequencies that are not too close. The resulting probability distribution functions are needed in seismic hazard calculations of peak response amplitudes of SDOF and MDOF structures that will not be exceeded with given confidence during the service time of the structure from any earthquake at all known faults within certain distance from the structure.  相似文献   

10.
Two carbonate deposits are identified on the exposed bedrock surface in the forefield of Glacier de Tsanfleuron, Switzerland: macrocrystalline sparite and microcrystalline micrite. Comparison of the distributions of these forms with lee-side slope facets identified by high-pass filtering of a flow-parallel bedrock profile at a range of frequencies reveals two significant results. First, while the distribution of sparite is consistent with formation in the lee side of subglacial bedrock hummocks, that of micrite is not. This contrasts with previous investigations in which both sparite and micrite have been considered to form by mineral concentration and precipitation during the refreezing of regelation-related basal meltwaters in the lee side of bedrock hummocks. Alternative mechanisms of micrite formation involving carbonate deposition and/or precipitation within subglacial bedrock hollows are proposed. Second, the distribution of sparite is most strongly correlated with the distribution of lee-side slope facets identified by filtering at a frequency equivalent to a hummock wavelength of c. 0·1 m. This correspondence indicates empirically that pressure-related melting and refreezing (regelation) operates most effectively around bedrock hummocks that are shorter than c. 0·1 m. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Abstract

A relationship of hydrologic variables with stream salinity was determined statistically for two ephemeral streams located in western Oklahoma. The hydrologic variables employed in this study are measures of streamflow, precipitation, anteccedent conditions, and agricultural land use.

The best single estimate of stream salinity was achieved by use of those variables classed as direct measures of precipitation, with the greatest variability in stream salinity (51%) being predicted by maximum daily P, the maximum amount of precipitation received at any rain gage zone in the watershed during one month. Maximum daily P predicts nearly double the variability in stream salinity predicted by flow. Antecedent conditions did not correlate well with stream salinity, except for the variable describing the antecedent stream salinity. Similarly, the areal location of precipitation within the watershed and agricultural land use did not correlate significantly with stream salinity, except for a variable designating the distance between the stream gaging station and the rain gage zone receiving the most precipitation for the month.

The best overall estimate of salinity was given by a multiple regression equation chosen on the basis of a factor analysis. This equation accounted for 65 percent of the variability in salinity and emphasized the contribution of variables classed as direct measures of precipitation. In comparing the two streams, the watershed having the most intensive rain gage network produced the best prediction equation.  相似文献   

12.
Granger causality (GC) is used in the econometrics literature to identify the presence of one- and two-way coupling between terms in noisy multivariate dynamical systems. Here we test for the presence of GC to identify a soil moisture (S) feedback on precipitation (P) using data from Illinois. In this framework S is said to Granger cause P if F(Pt|Ωt−Δt)≠F(Pt|Ωt−Δt−St−Δt) where F denotes the conditional distribution of P, Ωt−Δt represents the set of all knowledge available at time t−Δt, and Ωt−Δt−St−Δt represents all knowledge except S. Critical for land–atmosphere interaction research is that Ωt−Δt includes all past information on P as well as S. Therefore that part of the relation between past soil moisture and current precipitation which results from precipitation autocorrelation and soil water balance will be accounted for and not attributed to causality. Tests for GC usually specify all relevant variables in a coupled vector autoregressive (VAR) model and then calculate the significance level of decreased predictability as various coupling coefficients are omitted. But because the data (daily precipitation and soil moisture) are distinctly non-Gaussian, we avoid using a VAR and instead express the daily precipitation events as a Markov model. We then test whether the probability of storm occurrence, conditioned on past information on precipitation, changes with information on soil moisture. Past information on precipitation is expressed both as the occurrence of previous day precipitation (to account for storm-scale persistence) and as a simple soil moisture-like precipitation-wetness index derived solely from precipitation (to account for seasonal-scale persistence). In this way only those fluctuations in moisture not attributable to past fluctuations in precipitation (e.g., those due to temperature) can influence the outcome of the test. The null hypothesis (no moisture influence) is evaluated by comparing observed changes in storm probability to Monte-Carlo simulated differences generated with unconditional occurrence probabilities. The null hypothesis is not rejected (p>0.5) suggesting that contrary to recently published results, insufficient evidence exists to support an influence of soil moisture on precipitation in Illinois.  相似文献   

13.
To improve understanding of Ca isotope transport during water-rock interaction on the continents, we measured dissolved δ44Ca values along a 236 km flow path in the Madison aquifer, South Dakota, where fluids have chemically evolved according to dolomite and anhydrite dissolution, calcite precipitation, and Ca-for-Na ion-exchange over a timescale spanning ~ 15 kyr. We used a reactive transport model employing rate data constrained from major ion mass-balances to evaluate the extent to which calcite precipitation and ion-exchange fractionate Ca isotopes. Elevated δ44Ca values during the initial and final stages of water transport possibly result from calcite precipitation under supersaturated conditions and Ca-for-Na ion-exchange, respectively. However, for the bulk of the flow path, δ44Ca values evolve by mixing between anhydrite and dolomite dissolution, with no fractionation during calcite precipitation under saturated conditions. We attribute the absence of Ca isotope fractionation to the long timescale of water-rock interaction and slow rate of calcite precipitation, which have enabled fluids to chemically and isotopically equilibrate with calcite. We therefore conclude that the equilibrium Ca isotope fractionation factor between calcite and water (Δcal–w) is very close to zero. To the extent that the Madison aquifer typifies other groundwater systems where calcite slowly precipitates from solutions at or near chemical equilibrium, this study suggests that groundwater contributions to δ44Ca variability on the continents can be modeled according to simple mixing theory without invoking isotope discrimination.  相似文献   

14.
We compared the distribution and seasonal fluctuations in the aquatic biota in relation to chemical and physical water variables in the Altiplano watersheds of the Ascotán, Carcote and Huasco salars; Chungará and Cotacotani lakes; Isluga and Lauca Rivers and the Parinacota wetland. We sampled during the austral autumn–winter of 2006 and in the spring–summer of 2006–2007, using three sampling stations for each system. We used canonical correspondence analysis to establish relations between frequency of taxa and environmental variables.We demonstrate that the structure and composition of the aquatic biota in humid areas of the Altiplano is determined by physical and chemical variables of the water. The most relevant one is total nitrogen, which is also the limiting nutrient for phytoplankton production in tropical systems.Benthos and zooplankton showed significant associations with the set of environmental variables (Monte Carlo test, p<0.05); however, the association was not significant for phytoplankton. Lake Chungará showed the greatest variation in composition and abundance of zooplankton between autumn-winter and spring-summer, while in the Huasco salar the physical and chemical characteristics were related to the composition and abundance of the benthonic fauna. Thus, changes in the water volume of these systems would have repercussions in chemical and physical variables, altering the species assemblage and possibly the efficiency and stability of ecosystem functions.  相似文献   

15.
气候条件的变异和流域下垫面特征的改变是影响流域蒸散耗水的重要因素。本文聚焦于1900 2008年间全球83个典型流域数据,基于Budyko水热耦合平衡方程,探究100多年间不同条件下流域蒸散耗水率（AET/P）对气候和下垫面特征变异响应关系的稳定性。结果表明：(1)从长时间尺度看,大部分流域蒸散耗水率与气候干燥指数（PET/P）和流域特征参数（n值）变异的响应关系呈现较强的时间稳定性。从短时间尺度而言,半湿润流域内蒸散耗水率对干燥指数的响应系数?（AET/P）/?（PET/P）在20世纪内持续降低。不同气候条件下蒸散耗水率对流域特征参数的响应系数?（AET/P）/?（n）的变化差异显著。分不同下垫面特征来看,低n值（n<2）流域内AET/P对n值的变化更为敏感;(2)气候条件（PET/P）是大多数湿润区内蒸散耗水率的主导因素,在干旱与半干旱流域内,下垫面特征参数（n值）对AET/P贡献最大。在湿润区内,PET/P对AET/P的贡献程度随时间小幅提升;半湿润区内PET/P对AET/P的贡献度呈下降趋势。在低n值（n<2;流域持水能力较弱）流域内,n值对AET/P的贡献更多。在...  相似文献   

16.
Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  
This study aims to determine trends in the long‐term annual mean and monthly total precipitation series using non‐parametric methods (i.e. the Mann–Kendall and Sen's T tests). The change per unit time in a time series having a linear trend was estimated by applying a simple non‐parametric procedure, namely Sen's estimator of slope. Serial correlation structure in the data was accounted for determining the significance level of the results of the Mann–Kendall test. The data network used in this study, which is assumed to reflect regional hydroclimatic conditions, consists of 96 precipitation stations across Turkey. Monthly totals and annual means of the monthly totals are formed for each individual station, spanning from 1929 to 1993. In this case, a total of 13 precipitation variables at each station are subjected to trend detection analysis. In addition, regional average precipitation series are established for the same analysis purpose. The application of a trend detection framework resulted in the identification of some significant trends, especially in January, February, and September precipitations and in the annual means. A noticeable decrease in the annual mean precipitation was observed mostly in western and southern Turkey, as well as along the coasts of the Black Sea. Regional average series also displayed trends similar to those for individual stations. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
The factors influencing soil erosion may vary with scale. It remains unclear whether the spatial variation in soil erosion resistance is controlled by regional variables (e.g. precipitation, temperature, and vegetation zone) or by local specific variables (e.g. soil properties, root traits, land use, and farming operations) when the study area enlarges from a hillslope or catchment to the regional scale. This study was performed to quantify the spatial variations in soil erosion resistance to flowing water under three typical land uses along a regional transect on the Loess Plateau and to identify whether regional or local specific variables are responsible for these changes. The results indicated that the measured soil detachment capacities (Dc) of cropland exhibited an irregular trend along the regional transect. The Dc of grassland increased with mean annual precipitation, except for two sites (Yijun and Erdos). The measured Dc of woodland displayed an inverted ‘U’ shape. The changes in rill erodibility (Kr) of three land uses were similar to Dc, whereas no distinguishable trend was found for critical shear stress (τc). No significant correlation was detected between Dc, Kr and τc, and the regional variables. The spatial variation in soil erosion resistance could be explained reasonably by changes in soil properties, root traits, land use, and farming operations, rather than regional variables. The adjustment coefficient of Kr for grassland and woodland could be well simulated by soil cohesion and root mass density (R2 = 0.70, P < 0.01), and the adjustment coefficient of critical shear stress could be estimated with aggregate stability (R2 = 0.57, P < 0.01). The results are helpful for quantifying the spatial variation in soil detachment processes by overland flow and to develop process‐based erosion model at a regional scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Analysis of Pc3 observational data along the 210° magnetic meridian showed a complicated frequency-latitude structure at middle latitudes. The observed period-latitude distributions vary between events with a “noisy source”: the D component has a colored-noise spectrum, while the spectrum of H component exhibits regular peaks that vary with latitude, and events with a “band-limited source”: the spectral power density of the D component is enhanced at certain frequencies throughout the network. For most ULF events a local gap of the H component amplitude has been exhibited at both conjugate stations at L ≃ 2.1. A quantitative interpretation has been given assuming that band-limited MHD emission from an extra-magnetospheric source is distorted by local field line resonances. Resonant frequencies had been singled out with the use of the asymmetry between spectra of H and D components. Additionally, a local resonant frequency at L ≃ 1.6 was determined by the quasi-gradient method using the data from nearly conjugate stations. The experimentally determined local resonance frequencies agree satisfactorily with those obtained from a numerical model of the Alfven resonator with the equatorial plasma density taken by extrapolation of Carpenter-Anderson model. We demonstrate how simple methods of hydromagnetic spectroscopy enable us to monitor simultaneously both the magnitude of the IMF and the magnetospheric plasma density from ULF data.  相似文献   

19.
With their high resolution and reliability, tree rings play a very important role in global climate change study. The long tree-ring chronology is considered as one of the most important information sources to study the climatic change in the past several thousands years. In recent years, the tree-ring researches in China have made great progress, and the temperature and precipita- tion in some areas were reconstructed[1-20] which on- tributed to the global change studies in China. Due to the…  相似文献   

20.
Summary A multiple regression analysis has been carried out to obtain some approximate insight into conditions which might favour the occurence of thunderstorms, in terms of certain parameters measured on the ground. It is thought that annual thunderstorm frequencies may largely depend on local temperature parameters and deviations of precipitable water vapour from equilibrium values.Contribution of the «Centro Nucleazione Aerosoli» of the National Research Council of Italy, Via Vettore 4 (Monte Sacro),Roma.  相似文献   

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