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介绍对瀑布沟水库用加卸载响应比和波速比监测预测水库诱发地震的实践过程,通过课题以往的预测和对应其后期实际发生的地震来分析,结果显示:地震频度库水加卸载响应比Yn和Cr值、库水下方地震波速比这两种方法都可以作为监测预测水库诱发地震的新方法。 相似文献
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新疆克孜尔水库地震危险性预测研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
应用库区多项形变观测资料，对克孜尔水库蓄水后出现的形变异常及诱发水库地震的危险性进行了研究。结果认为：①穿过水库大坝的F2活断层在水后出现水平和垂直形变的特大异常变化主要是前期水库施工开挖土石方、填筑土石方及水库蓄水引起地面负荷变化的综合效应所致；②克孜尔水库虽然存在诱发水库地震的潜在因素，但从库容、坝高、F2活断层产状、地质构造背景、水地质条件、岩性以及世界各国发生水库 诱发地震的充分条件；③由库区各项形变观测资料分析表明，库区地壳形变已由施工－蓄水初期时的反向异常变化恢复到了施工蓄水前的正常变化状态，各种受力因素经过调整达到了新的平衡，已进入相对稳定的继承性运动期，因此今后因蓄水诱发水库地震的可能性不大。 相似文献
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地壳运动全变率指标（ＮＤＲ）系由地表横向变形弯曲度Ｓ，垂向切变反差度τ和地壳运动总强度Ｍｔ组成，是一组定量表示地震危险性的动态地质标志。对华北地区１９６６～１９９６年５次地震（Ｍ＞６）震前地壳运动进行ＮＤＲ系计算，发现ＮＤＲ系异常特征与地震事件间存在密切关系。该法对地震预报、工程地震、评估地壳活动性及地球动力学研究等方面，具有广泛的应用前景 相似文献
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本文以中国西部大地形变监测与地震预测实践为基础, 简要总结回顾了利用大地形变进行强震预测研究的工作思路、方法和一些进展; 进而结合2001年昆仑山口西8.1级、 2008年四川汶川8.0级特大地震前区域地壳运动变形背景和已有的研究结果, 分析和探讨了基于大地形变监测、 并考虑地震构造的差异性来进一步提高大震预测的有效性... 相似文献
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地壳垂直形变速率梯度,断层形变速率变化与强震危险区研究 总被引：9，自引：2，他引：9
应用最新的全国垂直变形速率图和各地区不同年代的形变图。编绘相应的形变速率梯度图，计算了若干跨断层测量台、点资料的低通滤波残差及其一阶和二阶差分。结合在相应空间和时间域内所发 生的强震，讨论了地壳形变与强震的关系，得到了一些有意的结果。 相似文献
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Reservoir induced earthquakes (RIE) are caused by impoundment of reservoir,with the characteristics of small magnitude and shallow focal depth,but they can also lead to not only economic loss,but also many serious secondary disasters,such as dam destruction,landslide,producing greater damages far more than the damages directly produced by earthquakes.So study on RIE is quite significant in the field of dam construction,thus more attentions should be paid to RIE.There are many factors to induce reservoir earthquakes,such as geological condition,rock mass mechanical index,state of crustal stress,pore pressure distribution,all of which are extremely difficult to measure due to the presence of many randomness;even if applying most advanced methods to measure them,the values fluctuate in great range,without a certain value in time and space.The great variety of these parameters gives rise to troubles to analyze RIE by deterministic approaches.How to handle the randomness of these factors has become vital problem in the field of RIE research.In this study,based on probability theory,and taking the main influence factors as stochastic variables,a new method to analyze probability of RIE was proposed by applying reliability theory.Firstly,the factors inducing reservoir earthquakes were analyzed,of which pore pressure in fault caused by water impounding of reservoir plays a vital role in triggering earthquakes.Then,taking these factors,including attitude,friction coefficient,cohesion of fault plane,stress state of fault plane and pore pressure in fault,as stochastic variables,performance function of triggering earthquakes was established by applying Coulomb stress on the fault plane,and reliability theory was used to analyze probability of earthquake induced by main factors.A special case analysis showed that:(1) The probability of induced earthquakes dramatically increases as pore pressure in fault increases;under the condition of equal pore pressure at triggering earthquakes area,probability of induced earthquakes obviously rises with enlarging of variation of pore pressure;(2) those faults with strike approximately parallel to horizontal maximum principal stress direction or with steep dip angle about more than 60° are prone to inducing earthquake;(3) as horizontal minimum principal stress increases,which has greater effect on induced earthquakes than horizontal maximum principal stress,probability of induced earthquakes becomes lower and fault keeps in more stable condition;(4) probability of induced earthquakes gradually decreases with the increase of friction coefficient and cohesion of fault plane;However,the effect of friction coefficient on induced earthquakes is much greater than the cohesion of fault plane. 相似文献
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三峡水库诱发地震监测简介 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
长江三峡工程是举世瞩目的特大型水利枢纽工程。它的建设将对三峡库区及其周边环境产生巨大影响，水库诱发地震就是可能产生的众多影响之一。中国长江三峡工程开发总公司为了三峡水库周边及其下游的防震减灾需要，投资建设了“长江三峡工程诱发地震监测系统”。三峡数字遥测地震台网是该系统中的重要组成部分，担负了水库诱发地震活动的日常监测任务。本文从水库诱发地震问题出发，简要介绍了该台网的设计思路、布局、监测能力和技术系统。 相似文献
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基于河南省豫北地区跨断层形变观测资料,在排除观测时段相关干扰的基础上,选取2002—2019年观测场地周边200 km范围内中等强度地震,依据震例对应规则,使用不同类别异常提取方法进行预报方法的检验和效能评估,并通过对比分析R值检验结果,总结适用于该地区跨断层形变观测的最佳预报方法。 相似文献
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Many observations and studies indicate that pore fluid pressure in the crustal rocks plays an important role in deformation, faulting, and earthquake processes. Conventional models of pore pressure effects often assume isotropic porous rocks and yield the nondeviatoric pressure effects which seem insufficient to explain diverse phenomena related to pore pressure variation, such as fluid-extraction induced seismicity and crustal weak faults. We derive the anisotropic effective stress law especially for transversely-isotropic and orthotropic rocks, and propose that the deviatoric effects of pore fluid pressure in anisotropic rocks not only affect rock effective strength but also cause variation of shear stresses. Such shear stress variations induced by either pore pressure buildup or pore pressure decline may lead to faulting instability and trigger earthquakes, and provide mechanisms for the failure of crustal weak faults with low level of shear stresses. We believe that the deviatoric effects of pore fluid pressure in anisotropic rocks are of wide application in studies of earthquake precursors and aftershocks, oil and gas reservoir characterization, enhanced oil recovery, and hydraulic fracturing. 相似文献
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ＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｎｄｙｎａｍｉｃｓｐａｔｅｒｎｓａｎｄｐａｒａｍｅｔｅｒｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｓｏｆｃｒｕｓｔａｌｄｅｆｏｒｍａｔｉｏｎｆｉｅｌｄｂｅｆｏｒｅａｎｄａｆｔｅｒｓｔｒｏｎｇｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅＳＨＵＯＹＵＺＨＯＵ１）（周硕愚）ＳＨＵＮ... 相似文献
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Wang Ruobai 《中国地震研究》2005,19(3):327-337
INTRODUCTIONThe Zhangjiakou-Penglai fault zone has drawnextensive attentionfromseismologists and geologistssince it was determinedinthe1980’s(Zheng Binghua,et al.,1981).Ma Xingyuan,et al.(1989)consideredit asthe north boundaryof North China sub-block.Int… 相似文献
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垂直形变速率梯度图的编绘 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
应用地壳形变资料观测未来强震的基本经验之一是：地震容易发生在变形高梯度带上,文中归纳并提出了具体计算和编绘“地壳垂直形谱速率梯度图”的方法,主要有网格法、函数拟合法及图解法。讨论了３种方法的特点和适用场合,并给出了用图解法编绘的“全图垂直形变速率梯度图！薄? 相似文献
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地壳和岩石圈变形特征研究对于深入了解中强地震的深部孕震环境具有重要科学意义.本文联合P和S波远震接收函数偏移成像结果,对发生过芦山7.0地震和汶川8.0地震的龙门山断裂带及附近区域地壳和岩石圈结构进行分析.结果揭示出在青藏高原向四川盆地过渡的龙门山断裂带,Moho面和岩石圈底界面(LAB)呈现出强烈变形,特别是芦山地震和汶川地震震源区下方地壳出现了错断、下凹,岩石圈也呈现下凹变形特征.这种地壳及岩石圈变形所代表的高应力的积累可能是汶川和芦山地震发生的重要深部地球动力学背景. 相似文献
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本文研究了不同力学参数地球模型对三峡库首区地壳垂直变形的影响,结果表明,PREM比Gutenberg-Bullen模型更接近基于三峡地壳分层结构和弹性参数改化的PREM模型的结果,并与之相差很小,但要获得高精度的模拟结果,地球模型中必须利用三峡地壳的弹性参数;利用了地球物理学中较完善的负荷格林函数法,结合精密的蓄水荷载模型和合适的地球模型,其垂直变形模拟结果对监测与地震关系密切的断层运动有重要意义;通过GPS观测和模拟结果的对比,发现2003年蓄水在香溪出现最大幅值约20mm的残差沉降,我们合理地解释为该地段的岩溶渗水荷载的效应. 相似文献
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THE COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS AND RESEARCH OF RECENT GRAVITY AND CRUSTAL DEFORMATION IN NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE TIBETAN PLATEAU 
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下载免费PDF全文 ZHU Yi-qing LIANG Wei-feng HAO Ming ZHAO Ling-qiang HAO Qing-hua ZHANG Guo-qing LIU Lian 《地震地质》2017,39(4):768-780
In this study, we systematically analyzed the relationship between regional gravity changes, 3D crustal deformation, regional tectonic environment and strong earthquakes based on the relative gravity measurements(2011-2014), GPS data and the background vertical deformation from the leveling measurements conducted from 1970 to 2011. Subsequently, we further characterized the temporal-spatial patterns and discussed the mechanism of regional gravity changes and the crustal deformation. The results can be summarized as follows:1)The regional gravity changes, the GPS-derived horizontal deformation and the vertical deformational obtained from leveling data showed a close spatial relationship:The gravity increased along with the direction of horizontal movement, and the gravity decreased with the crustal uplift and vice versa, which reflects the inherited characteristics of neotectonic activities. 2)The crustal deformation was closely related to the active faults. The contour lines of gravity changes and vertical deformation were generally along with the Qilian-Haiyuan Fault(the strike is NWW), and the crustal horizontal deformation showed left-lateral strike slip motion near the Qilian-Haiyuan Fault. 3)The strong earthquakes usually occur in the active faults where intensive gravity change and vertical and/or horizontal deformation occurred. The extrusion deformation, surface compression rate and gravity changes were obvious near the epicenter of 2016 Menyuan earthquake. The 2013 Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake occurred in the direction-turning area of intense gravity gradient zone and the transitional area of surface compression and vertical deformation. The first author of this paper has made a medium-term forecast before the Minxian and Menyuan earthquakes, especially the location of the earthquake. Based on the above understandings, we emphasized that:there are still possibilities of strong or huge earthquakes within medium-long term in the areas of crustal deformation anomalies in the study region. 相似文献
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滇西地震重点监视防御区中强地震潜在震源区的综合图像识别 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文利用滇西地区近些年来的地震地质、地球物理及地壳形变等方面的资料，经深入研究分析，最终选定了１２个较理想的特征参数，通过综合图像识别，在６４个研究对象中得到了２８个Ｄ类对象，占研究区总面积的４３％。其中有１６个对象历史上已有６级以上地震的记载；１２个为新判定的中强地震潜在震源区；１个为判定不稳定对象。最后给出了云南滇西地震重点监视防御区中强地震潜在震源区预测图。 相似文献
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Making use of the method of obtaining regional vertical strain rate from regional preciseleveling data and gaining dynamic pattern combining with deformation data on spanningfaults, the regional vertical strain dynamic evolution characteristics of several moderatelystrong earthquakes such as Lijiang (M_s 7.0) and Menyuan (M_s 6.4) earthquakes occurredin crustal deformation monitoring areas located in the western Yunnan and Qilianshan-Hexiregion. Based on the above-mentioned facts, by studying the time-space nonhomogeneity andstrain energy accumulation status, some criteria for judging the medium. and short-termstrong seismic risk regions according to the regional vertical strain rate dynamic informationare proposed. 相似文献
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地壳形变预报地震途径的探索 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文用系统科学理论河北省及邻区形变台网为一预报系统，通过对实用化攻关ＰＤＢＳ软件系统等方面处理的结果进行全面分析，得到表征系统的整体协同性状态的形变异常指标，从而寻求适合本区预报地震的途径。 相似文献
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基于地壳黏弹模型在GPS观测资料和地震位错数据为约束条件下,应用有限元数值模拟方法对2001年昆仑山8.1级、2008年汶川8.0级和2015年尼泊尔8.1级特大地震引起的地壳形变分布特征进行了模拟计算,获得了地震位移场和形变场.这3次大地震分别发生在青藏高原的北部、东部边界和南部边界,尽管震级大小基本相当,但发震区域和发震断层性质都各不相同,其各自产生的地壳形变场分布特征存在明显的差异,主要表现为形变场区域大小、幅值大小等的差异,以及在不同地壳深度也存在明显的差异,这些差异主要取决于地震断层性质和地下介质结构的不同.通过模拟计算,可以进一步了解大地震产生的应力加卸载区分布特征,对预测未来地震发生区域范围提供重要参考依据. 相似文献