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1.
Xue-Ze Wen 《地震学报(英文版)》1993,6(4):993-1004
Spatial distribution of sources of strong and large earthquakes on the Xiaojiang fault zone in eastern Yunnan is studied according
to historical earthquake data. 7 segments of relatively independent sources or basic units of rupture along the fault zone
have been identified preliminarily. On every segment, time intervals between main historical earthquakes are generally characterized
by “time-predictable” recurrence behavior with indetermination. A statistic model for the time intervals between earthquakes
of the fault zone has been preliminarily established. And a mathematical method has been introduced into this paper to reckon
average recurrence interval between earthquakes under the condition of having known the size of the last event at a specific
segment. Based on these, ranges of the average recurrence intervals given confidence have been estimated for events of various
sizes on the fault zone. Further, the author puts forward a real-time probabilistic model that is suitable to analyze seismic
potential for individual segments along a fault zone on which earthquake recurrence intervals have been characterized by quasi-time-predictable
behavior, and applies this model to calculate conditional probabilities and probability gains of earthquake recurring on the
individual segments of the Xiaojiang fault zone during the period from 1991 to 2005. As a consequence, it has shown that two
parts of this fault zone, from south of Dongchuan to Songming and from Chengjiang to Huaning, have relatively high likelihoods
for strong or large earthquake recurring in the future.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 322–330, 1993. 相似文献
2.
Recurrence characteristics of late-quaternary strong earthquakes on the major active faults along the northern border of Ordos block 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Through study on trenches, analysis of recurrence characteristics and recurrence interval cluster/gap of strong earthquakes along the major active faults on the northern border of Ordos block, we found 62 paleoearthquakes that occurred in the late Quaternary, including 33 earthquakes occurring in the Holocene. The recurrence characteristics of the paleoearthquakes are different at three levels, segments, faults, and fault zones. The strong seismic sequence on the independent segments is mostly characterized by long- and short-interval recurrences, while that on the faults and in fault zone is characterized clearly by random and cluster recurrences. Results of the moving window test indicate that the probabilities of "temporal cluster or gap", caused by random coincidence as opposed to intersegment contagion, are 64% and 70% for the Serteng piedmont fault and for the south-border fault of Wula Mountains, respectively, no clear interaction among the segments of each fault; while the probability is 26.8% for the whole fault zone, suggesting a clear interaction among the faults of this fault zone. These recurrence characteristics may imply an effect of the entire block motion on the recurrence of strong earthquakes. Moreover, the elapsed time for the Wujumeng Pass-Dongfeng Village segment of Serteng piedmont fault and the Tuzuo Banner-Wusutu and the Hohhot segments of Daqingshan piedmont fault has exceeded the average recurrence interval, hence these three segments may be the possible places for future strong earthquakes. 相似文献
3.
Through study on trenches, analysis of recurrence characteristics and recurrence interval cluster/gap of strong earthquakes along the major active faults on the northern border of Ordos block, we found 62 paleoearthquakes that occurred in the late Quaternary, including 33 earthquakes occurring in the Holocene. The recurrence characteristics of the paleoearthquakes are different at three levels, segments, faults, and fault zones. The strong seismic sequence on the independent segments is mostly characterized by long- and short-interval recurrences, while that on the faults and in fault zone is characterized clearly by random and cluster recurrences. Results of the moving window test indicate that the probabilities of “temporal cluster or gap”, caused by random coincidence as opposed to intersegment contagion, are 64% and 70% for the Serteng piedmont fault and for the south-border fault of Wula Mountains, respectively, no clear interaction among the segments of each fault; while the probability is 26.8% for the whole fault zone, suggesting a clear interaction among the faults of this fault zone. These recurrence characteristics may imply an effect of the entire block motion on the recurrence of strong earthquakes. Moreover, the elapsed time for the Wujumeng Pass-Dongfeng Village segment of Serteng piedmont fault and the Tuzuo Banner-Wusutu and the Hohhot segments of Daqingshan piedmont fault has exceeded the average recurrence interval, hence these three segments may be the possible places for future strong earthquakes. 相似文献
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Our field investigation obtains new evidence of the later Quaternary activity and recent large earthquake ruptures of the Garzê-Yushu fault. The average left-lateral slip-rate along the fault is determined to be (12 ± 2) mm/a for the last 50000 years from both offset landforms and ages of the correlative sediments. This result is very close to the estimated average left-lateral slip-rate for the Xianshuihe fault, suggesting that the horizontal movement along the northern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan active tectonic block and the northeastern boundary of the Qiangtang active tectonic block has been basically harmonious during the later Quaternary period. Remains of ground ruptures of recent large earthquakes have been discovered along all 3 segments of the fault, of which, the 1896 rupture on the northwestern segment is at least 70 km long, and its corresponding earthquake could be of moment magnitude 7.3. The latest rupture on the middle segment of the fault has a length of about 180 km, and was produced by an unknown-age large earthquake that could have a moment magnitude of about 7.7. Along the southeastern segment of the fault, the latest unknown-age rupture is about 65 km long and has a maximum left-lateral coseismic displacement of 5.3 m, and its corresponding earthquake is estimated to be as large as about 7.3 of moment magnitude. Based on relevant investigation, an inference has been drawn that the later two large earthquakes probably occurred in 1854 and 1866, respectively. These demonstrate that the individual segments of the studied Garzê-Yushu fault are all able to produce large earthquakes. 相似文献
6.
Our field investigation obtains new evidence of the later Quaternary activity and recent large earthquake ruptures of the Garzê-Yushu fault. The average left-lateral slip-rate along the fault is determined to be (12±2) mm/a for the last 50000 years from both offset landforms and ages of the correlative sediments. This result is very close to the estimated average left-lateral slip-rate for the Xianshuihe fault, suggesting that the horizontal movement along the northern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan active tectonic block and the northeastern boundary of the Qiangtang active tectonic block has been basically harmonious during the later Quaternary period. Remains of ground ruptures of recent large earthquakes have been discovered along all 3 segments of the fault, of which, the 1896 rupture on the northwestern segment is at least 70 km long, and its corresponding earthquake could be of moment magnitude 7.3. The latest rupture on the middle segment of the fault has a length of about 180 km, and was produced by an unknown-age large earthquake that could have a moment magnitude of about 7.7. Along the southeastern segment of the fault, the latest unknown-age rupture is about 65 km long and has a maximum left-lateral coseismic displacement of 5.3 m, and its corresponding earthquake is estimated to be as large as about 7.3 of moment magnitude. Based on relevant investigation, an inference has been drawn that the later two large earthquakes probably occurred in 1854 and 1866, respectively. These demonstrate that the individual segments of the studied Garzê-Yushu fault are all able to produce large earthquakes.
相似文献7.
《地震研究进展（英文）》2023,3(1):100177
The long-term earthquake prediction from 2021 to 2030 is carried out by researching the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland. Based on the strong earthquake recurrence model, the cumulative probability of each target fault in the next 10 years is given by the recurrence period and elapsed time of each fault, which are adopted from relevant studies such as seismological geology, geodesy, and historical earthquake records. Based on the long-term predictions of large earthquakes throughout the world, this paper proposes a comprehensive judgment scheme based on the fault segments with the seismic gap, motion strongly locked, sparse small-moderate earthquakes, and apparent Coulomb stress increase. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the relative risk for strong earthquakes that may occur in the coming 10 years on the major faults in the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland. The present loading rate of each fault is first constrained by geodetic observations; the cumulative displacement of each fault is then estimated by the elapsed time since the most recent strong earthquake. 相似文献
8.
本文根据历史地震(Ms6.0)的资料,研究了鲜水河断裂带的地震活动性,并利用断层的位错模式进一步研究该断裂带的应力积累和释放过程.结果表明,该断裂带的强震活动大致以道孚为界,形成北西和南东两个活动地段,呈现南北交替活动的特征.地震能量的这种交替释放似具有准周期性质,Ms7.0级地震的平均复发周期为27.6年.给出该断裂带在三个不同时间段(1700-1811,1816-1967,1816-1982)强震断层作用引起的应力释放图象,讨论了前两个时间段地震应力场对其后发生的第一个大地震的重要影响.计算了1893年以来在断裂带南东段(相对闭锁段)的应力积累,示出相应的最大剪应力和流体静应力等值线图.最后,根据应力积累、附加应力变化、地震活动规律和应变释放曲线特征,估计了鲜水河断裂带的地震趋势.认为在本世纪末,在断裂带南东段的(1)康定-磨西段或(2)道孚-乾宁段或(3)乾宁-康定段将可能发生 Ms=7.40.3地震. 相似文献
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对历史记载的公元1738年玉树西北地震的震级及其发震构造目前仍存有争议。卫星影像解译和野外调查发现沿甘孜-玉树断裂当江段分布一条长约75km的左旋走滑地震地表破裂带,其最大同震水平位移约2.1m。综合分析该地表破裂带特征、探槽揭露信息、测年结果以及历史文献记载等资料,认为当江段应为1738年玉树西北地震的发震断层,基于震例类比和经验公式估算该次地震的震级为71/2级。沿甘孜-玉树断裂的历史地震破裂分布显示,玉树段在隆宝镇以西存在近50km长的破裂空段;当江段距1738年地震的离逝时间也可能已经接近其地震复发周期,上述两个段落未来均存在大震危险。 相似文献
11.
郯庐断裂带中段全新世活断层的特征滑动行为与特征地震 总被引：16，自引：0，他引：16
郯庐断裂带中段全新世活断层由３个独立的破裂段组成。从各破裂段的运动性质、位移分布看，断层的运动属特征地震型滑动。地震活动以强震活动为主，强震具有周期性原地重复发生的特点，且其强度基本相同；中强地震缺失或很少发生；ｂ值在高震级范围内具低ｂ值的非线性关系。这些特点正是特征地震的典型表现．根据郯庐断裂带中段活断层全新世以来的活动特点看，未来该区仍然以特征地震方式活动．按郯庐带的强震复发间隔和各段的最新一次活动时代推算，未来一段时期内新沂－宿迁段复发大震的可能性较大，安丘段次之，莒县－郯城段复发大震的可能性则很小。 相似文献
12.
Tang Rongchang Huang Zuzhi Zhou Rongjun Zhu Jiangang and Gong YuSeismological Bureau of Sichuan Province Chengdu China 《中国地震研究》1996,(1)
Based on geometric structure,active strength,and maximum seismic rupture length along the fault in the late Quaternary or Holocene,this paper presents the segmentation of main active faults in Sichuan Province and uses the recurrence probability model to predict the recurrence probabilities of strong earthquakes along each segment during next 30 years.The results indicate that earthquakes with M=7.0 or greater may happen along Qiajiao segment,Qianning segment,and Selaha segment of Xianshuihe fault zone,the segment from Xichang to Mianning and Yejidong segment of Anninghe fault zone; earthquakes with M=6.0 or greater may happen along the segment from Maowen to Caopuo of Longmenshan fault zone and Xiaoyanjing segment of Anninghe fault zone. 相似文献
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14.
龙陵 -澜沧新生断裂带的地震活动具频度高、强度大、周期短等特征 ,并以双震或震群型为主。断裂带由多条次级新生断层组成 ,呈斜列或共轭式展布 ,根据结构、规模、地震活动差异等因素把断裂带划分为 4个一级段、13个二级段 ,其中有 4个二级段又可划分出 8个三级段。历史上发生过大震、强震并有地震断层伴生的断层段为地震破裂单元 ;断裂带上晚第四纪有活动并有古地震事件 ,但无历史地震记载的地段为断层闭锁单元 ;次级断层之间的阶区或连接点为障碍体单元。从地震破裂特征分析 ,断裂带由破裂、闭锁、障碍体单元组成 ,根据地震、古地震、活断层、断层阶区的活动规律 ,断裂带可划分出 9个破裂单元、8个闭锁单元、10个障碍体单元。三者之间呈迁移、触发和转换能量的关系。根据这些关系和地震构造标志 ,对断裂带上未来可能发生大震、强震、中强震的地区分别作了预测。预测的危险区有 9个 ,其中大震区 1个 (永康 -永德地区 ) ,强震区 3个 (马站、石灰窑、酒房-勐混 ) ,中强震区 5个 (下顺江、里仁、大岗山、南明 -澜沧、勐遮 相似文献
15.
安宁河断裂紫马跨一带晚第四纪地貌变形与断层位移速率 总被引：7，自引：6，他引：1
紫马跨一带是安宁河断裂北段晚第四纪断错地层地貌序列保存最好的地区,通过数字影像分析、全站仪实测和探槽开挖,对该地点断错现象进行细致研究,获得了晚全新世以来的左旋位移速率为6·2mm/a,垂直位移速率1·4mm/a;距今约10ka以来的平均左旋位移速率3·6~4·0mm/a,垂直位移速率约为1·1mm/a;距今约20ka以来的左旋位移速率为3·8~4·2mm/a,垂直位移速率最小为0·9mm/a。断层水平和垂直位移速率的比例约为4∶1。断层位移速率在时间分布上的变化与古地震研究的丛集复发特征有较好的一致性,反映断裂的活动强度存在强弱活动的交替现象 相似文献
16.
本研究基于分层黏弹介质模型,考虑强震或大地震同震位错、震后黏滞松弛及主断层段震间构造应力加载三方面效应,给出1480年以来,川滇菱形块体东边界鲜水河断裂带、安宁河断裂带、则木河断裂带和小江断裂带共20个断层段由三方面效应引起的累积库仑应力变化随时间的演化,分析强震间相互作用和强震发生的应力累积背景,定性分析各断层段的地震危险性.同时,分别采用现今台网地震目录和川滇菱形块体东边界各断层段强震复发间隔两种资料,定量计算2030年各断层段的强震发生概率;并基于摩擦本构理论,将周边强震引起的库仑应力变化量作为应力扰动,修正强震发生概率的计算结果.各断层段累积库仑应力演化的结果表明,鲜水河断裂带中部八美段、色拉哈段及南部磨西段、安宁河断裂带冕宁-西昌段、小江断裂带北部巧家-东川段和南部建水段的累积库仑应力显著增加.修正的强震发生概率计算结果显示,鲜水河断裂带中部八美-色拉哈-康定一带、安宁河断裂带冕宁-西昌段、小江断裂带南部华宁-建水一带强震发生概率较高,地震危险性值得关注.本研究基于库仑应力演化计算定性分析强震危险性的同时,基于摩擦本构律理论,结合地震引起的应力扰动和强震发生背景,定量计算修正的强震发生概率,为川滇菱形块体东边界强震危险地点及中长期发震紧迫程度判定提供方法和依据. 相似文献
17.
利用青海和周边87个地震台站于2022年1月8—13日记录的青海门源M6.9地震主震及680次余震资料,经双差地震定位重新进行震源位置的修定,获得633个地震重新定位后的震源信息。结果显示,此次地震的余震分布明显以昌马—俄博断裂南末梢端为界分为东、西两段,西段呈近EW向沿托勒山断裂东段分布,东段呈NWW向沿冷龙岭断裂西段分布。重新定位前余震初始震源深度集中分布在5~15 km,重新定位后变化为在0~20 km深度范围内偏正态分布。根据重新定位后余震分布特点并参考地表破裂带的展布,依据成丛地震发生在断层附近的原则,选取2个矩形区域,基于这2个区域内重新定位后的震源信息,利用模拟退火与高斯\|牛顿相结合的算法进行断层面拟合计算,完整地获得每一个拟合区域的断层面参数。结果表明托勒山断裂东段断层面与冷龙岭断裂西段断层面分别为长约15 km总体走向为近EW向的高倾角左旋走滑断裂与长约12 km总体走向为NWW向的高倾角大型左旋走滑断裂。此次青海门源地震可能是上述两断层面末端相互挤压共同破裂形成的。 相似文献
18.
利用2000—2013年四川数字地震台网和水库台网的波形资料以及川西流动台阵的事件波形,通过辨识发生在同一断层位置上的重复地震来定量研究鲜水河断裂带南段的深部变形.针对研究区台站分布稀疏的客观情况,应用了子采样条件下基于S-P相对到时差来约束震源位置一致性的方法,在鲜水河断裂带识别出11组重复地震,并利用连续波形资料进行了重复地震完整性的初步测试,同时运用结合波形互相关资料的双差法来完成研究区背景地震和重复地震位置的精确定位.重新定位后的地震图像展示研究区中上地壳存在明显缺震层,其与壳内的低速低阻层相吻合.利用重复地震的地震矩和重复间隔,估算出鲜水河断裂带南段孕震深部的滑动速率为3.0~10.2mm·a-1,显示研究区不同地震构造区的深部滑动速率存在明显差异. 相似文献
19.
2014年11月22日在NW向鲜水河断裂带中南段四川康定县发生M6.3级地震,11月25日在该地震震中东南约10km处再次发生M5.8级地震.基于中国国家数字地震台网和四川区域数字地震台网资料,采用多阶段定位方法对本次康定M6.3级地震序列进行了重新定位;利用gCAP(generalized Cut And Paste)矩张量反演方法获得了M6.3和M5.8级地震的震源机制解与矩心深度,分析了本次地震序列的发震构造,并结合历史强震破裂时空分布和2001年以来小震重新定位结果,对鲜水河断裂带中段强震危险性进行了初步探讨.获得的主要结果如下:(1)M6.3级主震震中位于101.69°E、30.27°N,震源初始破裂深度约10km,矩心深度9km;M5.8级地震震中位于101.73°E、30.18°N,初始破裂深度约11km,矩心深度9km.gCAP矩张量反演结果揭示这两次地震双力偶分量占主导,M6.3级地震的最佳双力偶解节面Ⅰ走向143°/倾角82°/滑动角-9°,节面Ⅱ走向234°/倾角81°/滑动角-172°.M5.8级地震最佳双力偶解节面Ⅰ走向151°/倾角83°/滑动角-6°,节面Ⅱ走向242°/倾角84°/滑动角-173°.依据余震分布长轴展布与断裂走向,判定节面Ⅰ为发震断层面,M6.3和M5.8级地震均为带有微小正断分量的左旋走滑型地震.(2)序列中重新定位的459个地震平均震源深度约9km,地震主要集中分布在6~11km深度区间,余震基本发生在M6.3和M5.8级地震震源上部.依据余震密集区展布范围,推测本次康定地震的震源体尺度长约30km、宽约4km、深度范围约6km.M6.3级主震震源附近的余震稀疏区可能是一个较大的凹凸体(asperity),在主震中能量得以充分释放.(3)最初3天的余震主要分布在M6.3级地震NW侧;而M5.8级地震之后的余震主要集中在其震中附近.M6.3级地震以及最初3天的绝大部分余震发生在倾角约82°近直立的NW走向色拉哈断裂上;M5.8级地震与其后的多数余震发生在倾角约83°近直立的NW走向折多塘断裂北端走向向北偏转部位,M5.8级地震可能是M6.3级地震触发相邻的折多塘断裂活动所致.(4)康定M6.3与M5.8级地震发生在鲜水河断裂带乾宁与康定之间的色拉哈强震破裂空段,本次地震破裂尺度较小,尚不足以填补该强震空段.色拉哈段以及相邻的乾宁段7级地震平静时间均已超过其平均复发周期估值,未来几年存在发生7级地震的危险.康定M6.3级地震序列基本填补了震前存在于塔公与康定之间的深部小震空区,未来强震发生在塔公至松林口段深部小震稀疏区内的可能性很大. 相似文献
20.
Yoshiki Shirahama Yukari Miyashita Masao Kametaka Yuji Suzuki Yosuke Miyairi Yusuke Yokoyama 《Island Arc》2021,30(1):e12376
The NE-trending Hinagu fault zone, length 81 km, is one of the major active faults in Kyushu, Japan. From north to south, it is divided into three segments based on geomorphic features and paleoseismic behavior: the Takano-Shirahata, Hinagu, and Yatsushiro Sea segments. The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake produced a 6-km-long surface rupture with a dextral strike-slip displacement on the northern part of the Takano-Shirahata segment. Surface rupture, a faint east-side-up flexure with a vertical offset of less than 8 cm, was observed near the middle of the Takano-Shirahata segment. To examine past surface-rupturing earthquakes on the Takano-Shirahata segment, including rupture frequency and timing, we conducted a paleoseismic study with boring and trenching at Yamaide. A trench across the surface rupture exposed multiple fault strands associated with multiple surface-rupturing events that deformed several strata of fine-grained sediments. By structural and stratigraphic interpretation, high-density radiocarbon dating and tephra analysis, and Bayesian modeling, we constrained the timing of seven events, Events 1–7, to 0.84–1.25, 1.31–7.06, 9.99–11.0, 10.8–12.1, 12.0–13.0, 14.2–15.1, and before 14.8 kcal BP. Slip during Events 1–6 was obviously larger than the 2016 slip. The estimated average recurrence interval was about 2596–2860 years, but the interval between Events 2 and 3 was much longer than other intervals. Moreover, the vertical throw associated with Event 2 was larger than that of other events. This implies that the Takano-Shirahata segment has a period with rare larger earthquakes and a period with frequent smaller earthquakes. Some events might have produced ruptures on both the Takano-Shirahata and the northern part of the Hinagu segments simultaneously or in a short time. The variety of recurrence intervals suggests that the seismic activity has been affected by one or both activities of the Futagawa fault zone and the Hinagu segment. 相似文献