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1.
控制温室气体排放、减缓气候变化已成为国际社会关注的热点,中国作为温室气体排放大国,承受着巨大的国际压力。未来一段时间内,如果按照发达国家的技术路线,中国的氢氟碳化物（HFCs）的生产和消费将快速增长,其排放量将迅速增加。采用低全球增温潜势（GWP）技术及采取减排措施,HFCs领域具有很大减排潜力;将HFCs减排纳入中国减排温室气体的整体战略中,对推进国家水平的温室气体减排将作出重要贡献。当前,中国面临着重要机遇,比如针对含氟温室气体相对完备的履约机制可保证一定的减排技术转让和资金支持,履约行动将促进相关行业的节能减排与技术创新等;同时中国也面临着挑战,比如HFCs的巨大消费需求及其排放量的迅速增长,尤其是HFCs替代技术存在局限性等。 相似文献
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姜子英 《气候变化研究进展》2010,6(5):376-380
为应对全球气候变化的挑战,发展低碳经济已成为国际共识。根据核能的特点,分析了核电燃料链的温室气体排放及其与其他能源链的比较,指出核能是各种能源中温室气体排放量最小的发电方式。介绍了世界主要核电国家发展核能减排温室气体状况,分析了我国发展核电的温室气体减排效益,提出积极发展核能是我国构建低碳型能源结构、应对气候变化的合理有效选择。 相似文献
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减少粮食浪费不仅关乎粮食安全,而且对于温室气体减排与生态环境保护也至关重要.本文基于生命周期理论,构建了餐厅食物消费模型;然后通过对北京某风味餐厅的现场调研,量化评估了餐厅每人次产生的平均温室气体排放量,并对餐厅剩余食物产生的原因以及通过减少餐厅食物剩余带来的温室气体减排潜力进行了系统分析.研究结果表明,一个中等规模的... 相似文献
4.
减缓气候变化的最新科学认知 总被引：9，自引：5，他引：9
摘 要：2007年5月4日，IPCC第三工作组在泰国曼谷发布了第四次评估报告《气候变化2007：减缓气候变化》的决策者摘要及主报告。报告综合评估了2001年以来有关减缓气候变化的最新研究成果，考察分析了中短期（2030年前）和长期（2030年后）温室气体的排放情景、减排潜力、成本范围，以及稳定大气温室气体（GHG）浓度水平的可能选择。报告总体认为，未来温室气体排放取决于发展路径的选择，现有各种技术手段和许多在2030年以前具有市场可行性的低碳和减排技术，将以较低的成本实现有效减排；在2030年以后将温室气体浓度稳定在较低水平的成本并不高，但需要国际合作，采取一致行动，并认为可持续发展与温室气体减排可以相互促进。 相似文献
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为探讨道路交通部门节能减排的决策依据,在总结低碳车辆技术主要种类基础上,重点评述了车辆动力系统和燃料替代技术的低碳化发展现状与趋势,包括全生命周期能效和温室气体排放情况。为进一步支持车辆技术低碳化,除加强综合节能技术和混合动力技术应用、电池技术升级和燃料电池技术研发之外,需加快生物燃料二代技术的研发进程和煤基燃料路线中二氧化碳捕获和封存技术等低碳技术的应用。 相似文献
6.
近期发布的IPCC第六次评估报告再次强调了短寿命期温室气体减排对温升减缓的作用。甲烷是最重要的短寿命期非CO2温室气体。在各国提出各自新的减排目标之后,针对甲烷减排的行动方案也越来越多。甲烷减排正在成为下一阶段各国和全球合作的重点领域之一。本文在我国碳减排目标下的能源转型基础上,结合其他非能源活动的减排排放源的减排技术选择基础上,利用IPAC模型对未来甲烷的排放情景进行了分析。在模型设定的两个情景分析基础之上,研究发现,到2050年的能源转型可明显减少能源活动的甲烷排放,和2015年相比能源活动的排放可减少67％。和其他行业相比,能源部门的甲烷减排具有更好的协同性。如果考虑进一步减排甲烷,则需要在考虑其他大气污染物减排的基础上,可通过实现天然气的进一步减排来实现。同时其他部门的甲烷减排也具有很大潜力,低甲烷排放情景可以实现到2050年将甲烷排放减少到1 494万吨,和2015年相比全范围排放可减排58％。 相似文献
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以中国钢铁行业为研究对象,对典型行业节能减排措施开展协同控制效应评估分析,试图为制定行业局地大气污染物与温室气体协同控制行动方案和规划提供依据。首先采用排放因子法计算各项措施对各类局地大气污染物和各类温室气体的减排量,并归一化为综合大气污染物协同减排量（ICER),进而采用协同控制效应坐标系、协同控制交叉弹性、单位污染物减排成本以及边际减排成本曲线等评估指标和方法开展协同控制效应评估。结果表明：基于2025年钢铁行业发展情景,6类28项节能减排措施可以实现每年减排SO2 51.80万t、NOx 71.35万t、PM10 29.07万t,还可协同减排CO2 6.64亿t;除末端脱碳和末端减污措施不具备协同减排效果外,多数措施均具有良好的协同控制效应;高温高压干熄焦（T3）措施单位污染物减排成本最低,超低排放改造（T28）措施减排成本最高;能效提升、原（燃）料替代类措施具有良好的财务收益;结构调整、能效提升和消费减量类措施减排潜力较大。未来应加强协同控制技术研发和协同控制规划,以实现行业局地大气污染物和温室气体协同控制综合效益优化。 相似文献
8.
总结了IPCC《气候变化与土地特别报告》中有关陆气相互作用、粮食系统与粮食安全、土地退化和荒漠化、可持续土地管理等的主要结论,分析了报告中争议较大的粮食系统温室气体排放、生物质能源、土地温室气体通量等问题。我国在粮食系统全生命周期温室气体排放量估算、基于遥感测量和地面测量的大气浓度等数据反演温室气体排放量等方面需要深入研究。同时,我国要继续加强可持续土地管理,提高相应的技术措施和能力建设。 相似文献
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A. N. Khondaker Karim Malik Nahid Hossain Shaikh Abdur Razzak Rouf Ahmad Khan 《Climate Policy》2013,13(4):517-541
The energy sector is the main contributor to GHG emissions in Saudi Arabia. The tremendous growth of GHG emissions poses serious challenges for the Kingdom in terms of their reduction targets, and also the mitigation of the associated climate changes. The rising trend of population and urbanization affects the energy demand, which results in a faster rate of increase in GHG emissions. The major energy sector sources that contribute to GHG emissions include the electricity generation, road transport, desalination plants, petroleum refining, petrochemical, cement, iron and steel, and fertilizer industries. In recent years, the energy sector has become the major source, accounting for more than 90% of national CO2 emissions. Although a substantial amount of research has been conducted on renewable energy resources, a sustainable shift from petroleum resources is yet to be achieved. Public awareness, access to energy-efficient technology, and the development and implementation of a legislative framework, energy pricing policies, and renewable and alternative energy policies are not mature enough to ensure a significant reduction in GHG emissions from the energy sector. An innovative and integrated solution that best serves the Kingdom's long-term needs and exploits potential indigenous, renewable, and alternative energy resources while maintaining its sustainable development stride is essential.Policy relevanceThe main contributor to GHG emissions in Saudi Arabia is the energy sector that accounts for more than 90% of the national CO2 emissions. Tremendous growth of GHG emissions poses serious challenges for the Kingdom in their reduction and mitigating the associated climate changes. This study examines the changing patterns of different activities associated with energy sector, the pertinent challenges, and the opportunities that promise reduction of GHG emissions while providing national energy and economic security. The importance of achieving timely, sustained, and increasing reductions in GHG emissions means that a combination of policies may be needed. This study points to the long-term importance of making near- and medium-term policy choices on a well-informed, strategic basis. This analytical paper is expected to provide useful information to the national policy makers and other decision makers. It may also contribute to the GHG emission inventories and the climate change negotiations. 相似文献
12.
Renewable energy curtailment is a critical issue in China, impeding the country’s transition to clean energy and its ability to meet its climate goals. This paper analyzes the impacts of more flexible coal-fired power generation and improved power dispatch towards reducing wind power curtailment. A unit commitment model for power dispatch is used to conduct the analysis, with different scenarios demonstrating the relative impacts of more flexible coal-fired generation and improved power dispatch. Overall, while we find both options are effective in reducing wind power curtailment, we find that improved power dispatch is more effective: (1) the effect of ramping down coal-fired generators to reduce wind power curtailment lessens as the minimum output of coal-fired generation is decreased; and (2) as a result, at higher wind capacity levels, wind curtailment is much more significantly reduced with improved power dispatch than with decreased minimum output of coal-fired generation.
Key policy insights
China should emphasize both coal power flexibility and dispatch in its policies to minimize renewable power curtailment and promote clean energy transition.
China should accelerate the process of implementing spot market and marginal cost-based economic dispatch, while making incremental improvements to the existing equal share dispatch in places not ready for spot market.
A key step in improving of dispatch is incorporating renewable power forecasts into the unit commitment process and updating the daily unit commitment based on the latest forecast result.
China should expand the coal power flexibility retrofit programme and promote the further development of the ancillary service market to encourage more flexibility from coal-fired generation.
13.
碳捕集与封存（CCS）技术作为解决全球气候变化问题的重要手段之一,能够有效减少CO2排放。中国作为碳排放大国,当前电力的主要来源仍是煤电,碳捕集（CC）改造在燃煤电厂中有很大的应用潜力。经济性对CC改造的部署至关重要。为此,本文计算了中国各省典型电厂CC改造前后的平准化度电成本,比较了不同省份的CO2捕集成本与CO2避免成本,分析了不同掺烧率下生物质掺烧结合碳捕集(bioenergy with carbon capture,BECC)改造的经济性。研究发现,CC改造会导致不同地区的燃煤电厂度电成本增加57.51%~93.38%。煤价较低的华北和西北地区（青海除外）CC改造经济性较好,BECC改造则更适合华中地区。建议在推进燃煤电厂CC和BECC改造时要充分考虑区域资源特点,完善碳市场建设,形成合理碳价以促进CC和BECC部署。 相似文献
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"经济大国能源与气候论坛"在推动全球主要国家就应对气候变化主要议题达成一致方面取得了进展,已初步显示出其作为联合国气候谈判晴雨表的特征。该论坛的实质是主要发达国家为转移减排责任和压力,降低减排成本,绑架主要发展中国家在全球应对气候变化领域实施的集体强权政治。论坛的核心目标在于推动全球量化减排,目的是借全球量化减排,营造低碳和气候友好技术的广大市场,使得具有技术优势的这些经济大国拥有新的主导全球经济的力量。我国应坚持"共同但有区别的责任"原则,联合与会发展中国家强调气候变化的历史责任,反对为全球温室气体排放设限等不公平提议,团结广大发展中国家,同时抓住论坛力推低碳经济和低碳技术发展的机遇,使我国站在全球新一轮技术革命的前沿。 相似文献
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The number of electric and electronic products (e-products) owned by Chinese households has multiplied in the past decade. In this study, we analyz the GHG emissions from e-products in Chinese households in order to understand and determine how to mitigate their effects on climate change. The results show that the usage stage of e-products has become an important source of GHG emissions in China, with total GHG emissions of these household e-products reaching about 663 million tons CO2 eq., accounting for about 8.85 % of all Chinese GHG emissions in 2012. The average GHG emission per household per year in China was 1538 kg CO2 eq. in 2012, a little higher than that of Norwegian households (1200 kg CO2 eq.). The electricity mix plays a very important role in GHG emissions, and the 78 % coal-fired power consumption accounted for 99.69 % of the total GHG emissions. Our research also supports the view that GHG emissions from household e-products increased with economic level. To reduce the GHG emissions of household e-products, the development of energy-saving e-products and changes to the electricity mix would be very effective measures. 相似文献
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In this study, we develop a new integrated assessment model called the BET model (Basic Energy systems, Economy, Environment, and End-use Technology Model). It is a multi-regional, global model based on Ramsey’s optimal growth theory and includes not only traditional end-use technologies but also advanced end-use technologies such as heat-pump water heaters and electric vehicles. Using the BET model, we conduct simulations and obtain the following results. (1) Advanced end-use technologies have an important role in containing carbon prices as well as GDP losses when GHG (greenhouse gas) constraints are stringent. (2) Electrification based on energy services progresses rapidly in scenarios with stringent GHG constraints. This is because electricity can be supplied by various methods of non-fossil power generation, and advanced end-use technologies can drastically improve energy-to-service efficiencies. The BET’s results indicate the importance of analyses that systematically combine environmental constraints, end-use technologies, supply energy technologies, and economic development. 相似文献
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Hydropower is the dominant renewable energy source to date, providing over two-thirds of all renewable electricity globally. For countries with significant hydropower potential, the technology is expected to play a major role in the energy transition needed to meet nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions as laid out in the Paris Agreement. For the Republic of Ecuador, large hydropower is currently considered as the main means for attaining energy security, reducing electricity prices and mitigating GHG emissions in the long-term. However, uncertainty around the impacts of climate change, investment cost overruns and restrictions to untapped resources may challenge the future deployment of hydropower and consequently impact decarbonization efforts for Ecuador’s power sector. To address these questions, a partial equilibrium energy system optimization model for Ecuador (TIMES-EC) is used to simulate alternative electricity capacity expansion scenarios up to 2050. Results show that the share of total electricity supplied by hydropower in Ecuador might vary significantly between 53% to 81% by 2050. Restricting large hydropower due to social-environmental constraints can cause a fourfold increase in cumulative emissions compared to NDC implied levels, while a 25% reduction of hydropower availability due to climate change would cause cumulative emissions to double. In comparison, a more diversified power system (although more expensive) which limits the share of large hydropower and natural gas in favour of other renewables could achieve the expected NDC emission levels. These insights underscore the critical importance of undertaking detailed whole energy system analyses to assess the long-term challenges for hydropower deployment and the trade-offs among power system configuration, system costs and expected GHG emissions in hydropower-dependent countries, states and territories.
Key policy insights
Ecuador’s hydropower-based NDC is highly vulnerable to the occurrence of a dry climate scenario and restrictions to deployment of large hydropower in the Amazon region.
Given Ecuador’s seasonal runoff pattern, fossil-fuel or renewable thermoelectric backup will always be required, whatever the amount of hydropower installed.
Ecuador’s NDC target for the power sector is achievable without the deployment of large hydropower infrastructure, through a more diversified portfolio with non-hydro renewables.
18.
Katye E. Altieri Hilton Trollip Tara Caetano Alison Hughes Bruno Merven Harald Winkler 《Climate Policy》2016,16(4):S78-S91
Achieving the international 2 °C limit climate policy requires stringent reductions in GHG emissions by mid-century, with some countries simultaneously facing development-related challenges. South Africa is a middle-income developing country with high rates of unemployment and high levels of poverty, as well as an emissions-intensive economy. South Africa takes into account an assessment of what a fair contribution to reducing global emissions might be, and is committed to a ‘peak, plateau and decline' emissions trajectory with absolute emissions specified for 2025 and 2030, while noting the need to address development imperatives. This work utilizes an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model (e-SAGE) linked to an energy-system optimization model (TIMES) to explore improving development metrics within a 14 GtCO2e cumulative energy sector carbon constraint through to 2050 for South Africa. The electricity sector decarbonizes by retiring coal-fired power plants or replacing with concentrated solar power, solar photovoltaics and wind generation. Industry and tertiary-sector growth remains strong throughout the time period, with reduced energy intensity via fuel-switching and efficiency improvements. From 2010 to 2050, the model results in the unemployment rate decreasing from 25% to 12%, and the percentage of people living below the poverty line decreasing from 49% to 18%. Total energy GHG emissions were reduced by 39% and per capita emissions decreased by 62%.Policy relevanceLower poverty and inequality are goals that cannot be subordinated to lower GHG emissions. Policy documents in South Africa outline objectives such as reducing poverty and inequality with a key focus on education and employment. In its climate policy and Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), South Africa is committed to a peak, plateau and decline GHG emissions trajectory. As in many developing countries, these policy goals require major transformations in the energy system while simultaneously increasing affordable access to safe and convenient energy services for those living in energy poverty. The modelled scenario in this work focuses on employment and poverty reduction under a carbon constraint, a novel combination with results that can provide information for a holistic climate and development policy framework. This study has focused on the long term, which is important in generating clear policy signals for the necessary large-scale investments. 相似文献
19.
Annie Levasseur Pascal Lesage Manuele Margni Miguel Brand?o Réjean Samson 《Climatic change》2012,115(3-4):759-776
In order to properly assess the climate impact of temporary carbon sequestration and storage projects through land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), it is important to consider their temporal aspect. Dynamic life cycle assessment (dynamic LCA) was developed to account for time while assessing the potential impact of life cycle greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. In this paper, the dynamic LCA approach is applied to a temporary carbon sequestration project through afforestation, and the results are compared with those of the two principal ton-year approaches: the Moura-Costa and the Lashof methods. The dynamic LCA covers different scenarios, which are distinguished by the assumptions regarding what happens at the end of the sequestration period. In order to ascertain the degree of compensation of an emission through a LULUCF project, the ratio of the cumulative impact of the project to the cumulative impact of a baseline GHG emission is calculated over time. This ratio tends to 1 when assuming that, after the end of the sequestration project period, the forest is maintained indefinitely. Conversely, the ratio tends to much lower values in scenarios where part of the carbon is released back to the atmosphere due to e.g. fire or forest exploitation. The comparison of dynamic LCA with the ton-year approaches shows that it is a more flexible approach as it allows the consideration of every life cycle stage of the project and it gives decision makers the opportunity to test the sensitivity of the results to the choice of different time horizons. 相似文献
20.
An Overview of Terrestrial Sequestration of Carbon Dioxide: the United States Department of Energy's Fossil Energy R&D Program 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
John T. Litynski Scott M. Klara Howard G. McIlvried Rameshwar D. Srivastava 《Climatic change》2006,74(1-3):81-95
Increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHG) in the Earth's atmosphere have the potential to enhance the natural greenhouse effect, which may result in climatic changes. The main anthropogenic contributors to this increase are fossil fuel combustion, land use conversion, and soil cultivation. It is clear that overcoming the challenge of global climate change will require a combination of approaches, including increased energy efficiency, energy conservation, alternative energy sources, and carbon (C) capture and sequestration. The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring the development of new technologies that can provide energy and promote economic prosperity while reducing GHG emissions. One option that can contribute to achieving this goal is the capture and sequestration of CO2 in geologic formations. An alternative approach is C sequestration in terrestrial ecosystsems through natural processes. Enhancing such natural pools (known as natural sequestration) can make a significant contribution to CO2 management strategies with the potential to sequester about 290 Tg C/y in U.S. soils. In addition to soils, there is also a large potential for C sequestration in above and belowground biomass in forest ecosystems.A major area of interest to DOE's fossil energy program is reclaimed mined lands, of which there may be 0.63 ×106 ha in the U.S. These areas are essentially devoid of soil C; therefore, they provide an excellent opportunity to sequester C in both soils and vegetation. Measurement of C in these ecosystems requires the development of new technology and protocols that are accurate and economically viable. Field demonstrations are needed to accurately determine C sequestration potential and to demonstrate the ecological and aesthetic benefits in improved soil and water quality, increased biodiversity, and restored ecosystems.The DOE's research program in natural sequestration highlights fundamental and applied studies, such as the development of measurement, monitoring, and verification technologies and protocols and field tests aimed at developing techniques for maximizing the productivity of hitherto infertile soils and degraded ecosystems. 相似文献