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1.
Numerical modelling is increasingly used as a tool for improving management strategies in aquifers and to support the design of comprehensive projects considering natural and anthropogenic processes. Overall, numerical simulation in karstic aquifers poses a major scientific challenge due to the non-Darcian groundwater flow dynamics. In specific cases, the equivalent porous medium approach has shown acceptable results, particularly in poorly karstified aquifers with regional/subregional scales such as this case. The Yucatan coastal karstic aquifer (Mexico) has been defined as a complex regional heterogeneous system, partially confined, thus allowing the discussion of multiple conceptual models. In this research, a two-dimensional numerical model of flow and transport was implemented using SEAWAT for the NW Yucatan aquifer. Four likely conceptual models were audited, calibrated and verified using hydrogeological field data, to select the best one, considering their fit and complexity. The numerical model accuracy was evaluated using the root-mean-square error, Nash Sutcliffe efficiency and the Pearson coefficient. The Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion were included for evaluating the complexity of the numerical models. In addition, the signal of tide propagation into the aquifer was assessed as a proxy to improve the numerical calibration process. Results show that the most complex numerical model has a better calibration than the simpler models, but the model accuracy is worse when compared to less complex numerical models in the verification exercise. This research offers enhancement in the knowledge of numerical modelling in heterogeneous coastal aquifers within a conceptual-model uncertainty setting. 相似文献
2.
The past two decades have seen a rapid adoption of artificial intelligence methods applied to mineral exploration. More recently, the easier acquisition of some types of data has inspired a broad literature that has examined many machine learning and modelling techniques that combine exploration criteria, or ‘features’, to generate predictions for mineral prospectivity. Central to the design of prospectivity models is a ‘mineral system’, a conceptual model describing the key geological elements that control the timing and location of economic mineralisation. The mineral systems model defines what constitutes a training set, which features represent geological evidence of mineralisation, how features are engineered and what modelling methods are used. Mineral systems are knowledge-driven conceptual models, thus all parameter choices are subject to human biases and opinion so alternative models are possible. However, the effect of alternative mineral systems models on prospectivity is rarely compared despite the potential to heavily influence final predictions. In this study, we focus on the effect of conceptual uncertainty on Fe ore prospectivity models in the Hamersley region, Western Australia. Four important considerations are tested. (1) Five different supergene and hypogene conceptual mineral systems models guide the inputs for five forest-based classification prospectivity models model. (2) To represent conceptual uncertainty, the predictions are then combined for prospectivity model comparison. (3) Representation of three-dimensional objects as two-dimensional features are tested to address commonly ignored thickness of geological units. (4) The training dataset is composed of known economic mineralisation sites (deposits) as ‘positive’ examples, and exploration drilling data providing ‘negative’ sampling locations. Each of the spatial predictions are assessed using independent performance metrics common to AI-based classification methods and subjected to geological plausibility testing. We find that different conceptual mineral systems produce significantly different spatial predictions, thus conceptual uncertainty must be recognised. A benefit to recognising and modelling different conceptual models is that robust and geologically plausible predictions can be made that may guide mineral discovery. 相似文献
3.
探讨了裂隙岩体中非饱和地下水渗流与溶质运移的几种概念模型的构造及数值模拟问题 ,如裂隙网络模型、连续体模型、等效连续体模型、双孔隙度 (单渗透率 )模型、双渗透率模型、多组份连续体模型等。在裂隙岩体中 ,非饱和地下水的渗流可能只局限于岩体中的岩石组份、或裂隙网络 ,也可能在裂隙和岩石中同时发生 ;对前一种情形只需考虑单一连续体中的流动 ,而后一种情况则需要包括地下水在岩石和裂隙之间的交换。岩体中的裂隙网络往往是溶质运移的主要通道 ;但当溶质在裂隙与岩石之间的渗透和扩散是重要的运移机制时 ,就需要考虑岩石与裂隙界面处的溶质交换。为了模拟岩石与裂隙之间地下水和溶质的交换 ,就需要了解岩石与裂隙之间相互作用的模式和范围 ,使得这类问题的概念模型较单一连续体模型多了一层不确定性、其数值模拟也变得更为困难。因为在实际问题中不易、甚至根本不能判别非饱和渗流的实际形态 ,具体采用哪种模型主要取决于分析的目的和对现场数据的掌握程度。不论哪种模型都会受到模型及参数不确定性的影响 ,因此必须考虑与其他辅助模型的比较. 相似文献
4.
Uncertainties in parameters of landslide susceptibility models often hinder them from providing accurate spatial and temporal predictions of landslide occurrences. Substantial contribution to the uncertainties in landslide assessment originates from spatially variable geotechnical and hydrological parameters. These input parameters may often vary significantly through space, even within the same geological deposit, and there is a need to quantify the effects of the uncertainties in these parameters. This study addresses this issue with a new three-dimensional probabilistic landslide susceptibility model. The spatial variability of the model parameters is modeled with the random field approach and coupled with the Monte Carlo method to propagate uncertainties from the model parameters to landslide predictions (i.e., factor of safety). The resulting uncertainties in landslide predictions allow the effects of spatial variability in the input parameters to be quantified. The performance of the proposed model in capturing the effect of spatial variability and predicting landslide occurrence has been compared with a conventional physical-based landslide susceptibility model that does not account for three-dimensional effects on slope stability. The results indicate that the proposed model has better performance in landslide prediction with higher accuracy and precision than the conventional model. The novelty of this study is illustrating the effects of the soil heterogeneity on the susceptibility of shallow landslides, which was made possible by the development of a three-dimensional slope stability model that was coupled with random field model and the Monte Carlo method. 相似文献
5.
Reliable 3D modelling of underground hydrocarbon reservoirs is a challenging task due to the complexity of the underground geological formations and to the availability of different types of data that are typically affected by uncertainties.In the case of geologically complex depositional environments,such as fractured hydrocarbon reservoirs,the uncertainties involved in the modelling process demand accurate analysis and quantification in order to provide a reliable confidence range of volumetric estimations.In the present work,we used a 3D model of a fractured carbonate reservoir and populated it with different lithological and petrophysical properties.The available dataset also included a discrete fracture network(DFN)property that was used to model the fracture distribution.Uncertainties affecting lithological facies,their geometry and absolute positions(related to the fault system),fracture distribution and petrophysical properties were accounted for.We included all different types of uncertainties in an automated approach using tools available in today's modelling software packages and combining all the uncertain input parameters in a series of statistically representative geological realizations.In particular,we defined a specific workflow for the definition of the absolute permeability according to an equivalent,single porosity approach,taking into account the contribution of both the matrix and the fracture system.The results of the analyses were transferred into a 3D numerical fluid-dynamic simulator to evaluate the propagation of the uncertainties associated to the input data down to the final results,and to assess the dynamic response of the reservoir following a selected development plan.The"integrated approach"presented in this paper can be useful for all technicians involved in the construction and validation of 3D numerical models of hydrocarbon-bearing reservoirs and can potentially become part of the educational training for young geo-scientists and engineers,since an integrated and well-constructed workflow is the backbone of any reservoir study. 相似文献
7.
The problem of multiphase phase flow in heterogeneous subsurface porous media is one involving many uncertainties. In particular, the permeability of the medium is an important aspect of the model that is inherently uncertain. Properly quantifying these uncertainties is essential in order to make reliable probabilistic-based predictions and future decisions. In this work, a measure-theoretic framework is employed to quantify uncertainties in a two-phase subsurface flow model in high-contrast media. Given uncertain saturation data from observation wells, the stochastic inverse problem is solved numerically in order to obtain a probability measure on the space of unknown permeability parameters characterizing the two-phase flow. As solving the stochastic inverse problem requires a number of forward model solves, we also incorporate the use of a conservative version of the generalized multiscale finite element method for added efficiency. The parameter-space probability measure is used in order to make predictions of saturation values where measurements are not available, and to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in the context of fine and coarse model solves. A number of numerical examples are offered to illustrate the measure-theoretic methodology for solving the stochastic inverse problem using both fine and coarse solution schemes. 相似文献
8.
Computer simulations allow the prediction of hydrocarbon volumes, composition and charge timing in undrilled petroleum prospects. Whereas different models may give different hydrocarbon charge predictions, it has now become evident that a dominant cause of erroneous predictions is the poor quality of input data. The main culprit for prediction errors is the uncertainty in the initial hydrogen index (H/C) of the source rock. A 10% uncertainty in the H/C may lead to 50% error in the predicted hydrocarbon volumes, and associated gas–oil ratio. Similarly, uncertainties in the maximum burial temperature and the kinetics of hydrocarbon generation may lead to 20–50% error. Despite this, charge modelling can have great value for the ranking of prospects in the same area with comparable geological histories. 相似文献
9.
Ongoing developments in geological and hydrogeological investigation techniques, especially direct-push methods, have led
to an increase in the quality, density and spatial resolution of data available from such investigations. This has created
new challenges in the development of numerical models in terms of accurately and efficiently translating detailed and complex
conceptual models into effective numerical models. Suitable geometrical and numerical modelling tools are essential in order
to meet these challenges. This paper describes the development of a three-dimensional hydrogeological flow model for a contaminated
site near Berlin, Germany, based on high-resolution geological data obtained principally using direct-push methods. The available
data were first interpreted to construct a detailed GIS-based geological model, which formed the basis of the conceptual site
model. The conceptual model was then translated into a geometrical model, which was used to create a finite element numerical
model. An innovative geometry object-based approach enabled the complex structural details of the conceptual model to be accurately
reproduced in the numerical model domain. The resulting three-dimensional steady-state unconfined flow model was successfully
calibrated using external automated calibration software, whereby parameter values for groundwater recharge and hydraulic
conductivity were determined. 相似文献
10.
Uncertainties in hydrologic model outputs can arise for many reasons such as structural, parametric and input uncertainty. Identification of the sources of uncertainties and the quantification of their impacts on model results are important to appropriately reproduce hydrodynamic processes in karst aquifers and to support decision-making. The present study investigates the time-dependent relevance of model input uncertainties, defined as the conceptual uncertainties affecting the representation and parameterization of processes relevant for groundwater recharge, i.e. interception, evapotranspiration and snow dynamic, on the lumped karst model LuKARS. A total of nine different models are applied, three to compute interception (DVWK, Gash and Liu), three to compute evapotranspiration (Thornthwaite, Hamon and Oudin) and three to compute snow processes (Martinec, Girons Lopez and Magnusson). All the input model combinations are tested for the case study of the Kerschbaum spring in Austria. The model parameters are kept constant for all combinations. While parametric uncertainties computed for the same model in previous studies do not show pronounced temporal variations, the results of the present work show that input uncertainties are seasonally varying. Moreover, the input uncertainties of evapotranspiration and snowmelt are higher than the interception uncertainties. The results show that the importance of a specific process for groundwater recharge can be estimated from the respective input uncertainties. These findings have practical implications as they can guide researchers to obtain relevant field data to improve the representation of different processes in lumped parameter models and to support model calibration. 相似文献
11.
When the parameters of a numerical model are adjusted, so that the predictions of the model match measurements from the real system, we need to take account of two sources of errors. These being measurement errors and modelling errors. Measurement errors are commonly considered, and a number of different approaches are in general usage, the most common being the weighted sum of squares method. In this paper the standard Bayesian equation, used for inverse problems, is reformulated so as to make it more intuitive to use. This allows the inclusion of both a modelling error and correlations between measurements to be carried out easily. The results are tested on a simple one-parameter numerical model and a cross-sectional model of a petroleum reservoir. In the first case the proposed error model appears to work well. In the second case it appears that the objective function is multimodal, leading to multiple acceptable solutions. The results of this paper are important to those whose numerical models are thought to contain significant modelling error. This encompasses many areas of modelling related to earth science and engineering. 相似文献
12.
利用弹性波动方程进行了非零偏移距VSP波场的数值模拟,通过偏振投影和中值滤波技术相结合进行波场分离,对分离后的反射P波和透射PS波利用动校正(NMO)和VSPCDP叠加技术进行成像。成像结果表明:透射PS波成像与反射P波成像具有同样良好的效果,而且透射PS波成像是反射波成像很好的补充。利用透射PS波成像不需要增加数据采集的成本,所以透射波成像技术将会在石油工业中被广泛采用。 相似文献
13.
The evaluation of the accuracy or reasonableness of numerical models of groundwater flow is a complex task, due to the uncertainties in hydrodynamic properties and boundary conditions and the scarcity of good-quality field data. To assess model reliability, different calibration techniques are joined to evaluate the effects of different kinds of boundary conditions on the groundwater flow in a coastal multi-layered aquifer in southern Italy. In particular, both direct and indirect approaches for inverse modeling were joined through the calibration of one of the most uncertain parameters, namely the hydraulic conductivity of the karst deep hydrostratigraphic unit. The methodology proposed here, and applied to a real case study, confirmed that the selection of boundary conditions is among the most critical and difficult aspects of the characterization of a groundwater system for conceptual analysis or numerical simulation. The practical tests conducted in this study show that incorrect specification of boundary conditions prevents an acceptable match between the model response to the hydraulic stresses and the behavior of the natural system. Such effects have a negative impact on the applicability of numerical modeling to simulate groundwater dynamics in complex hydrogeological situations. This is particularly important for management of the aquifer system investigated in this work, which represents the only available freshwater resource of the study area, and is threatened by overexploitation and saltwater intrusion. 相似文献
14.
Natural hazard assessments are always subject to uncertainties due to missing knowledge about the complexity of hazardous
processes as well as their natural variability. Decision-makers in the field of natural hazard management need to understand
the concept, components, sources, and implications of existing uncertainties in order to reach informed and transparent decisions.
Until now, however, only few hazard maps include uncertainty visualizations which would be much needed for an enhanced communication
among experts and decision-makers in order to make informed decisions possible. In this paper, an analysis of how uncertainty
is currently treated and communicated by Swiss natural hazards experts is presented. The conducted expert survey confirmed
that the communication of uncertainty has to be enhanced, possibly with the help of uncertainty visualizations. However, in
order to visualize the spatial characteristics of uncertainty, existing uncertainties need to be quantified. This challenge
is addressed by the exemplary simulation of a snow avalanche event using a deterministic model and quantified uncertainties
with a sensitivity analysis. Suitable visualization methods for the resulting spatial variability of the uncertainties are
suggested, and the advantages and disadvantages of their implementation in an interactive cartographic information system
are discussed. 相似文献
16.
Large-scale studies of the spatial and temporal variation of groundwater drought status require complete inventories of groundwater levels on regular time steps from many sites so that a standardised drought index can be calculated for each site. However, groundwater levels are often measured sporadically, and inventories include missing or erroneous data. A flexible and efficient modelling framework is developed to fill gaps and regularise data in such inventories. It uses linear mixed models to account for seasonal variation, long-term trends and responses to precipitation and temperature over different temporal scales. The only data required to estimate the models are the groundwater level measurements and freely available gridded weather products. The contribution of each of the four types of trends at a site can be determined and thus the causes of temporal variation of groundwater levels can be interpreted. Validation reveals that the models explain a substantial proportion of groundwater level variation and that the uncertainty of the predictions is accurately quantified. The computation for each site takes less than 130 s and requires little supervision. Hence, the approach is suitable to be upscaled to represent the variation of groundwater levels in large datasets consisting of thousands of boreholes. 相似文献
17.
Dual-continuum (DC) models can be tractable alternatives to explicit approaches for the numerical modelling of multiscale materials with multiphysics behaviours. This work concerns the conceptual and numerical modelling of poroelastically coupled dual-scale materials such as naturally fractured rock. Apart from a few exceptions, previous poroelastic DC models have assumed isotropy of the constituents and the dual-material. Additionally, it is common to assume that only one continuum has intrinsic stiffness properties. Finally, little has been done into validating whether the DC paradigm can capture the global poroelastic behaviours of explicit numerical representations at the DC modelling scale. We address the aforementioned knowledge gaps in two steps. First, we utilise a homogenisation approach based on Levin's theorem to develop a previously derived anisotropic poroelastic constitutive model. Our development incorporates anisotropic intrinsic stiffness properties of both continua. This addition is in analogy to anisotropic fractured rock masses with stiff fractures. Second, we perform numerical modelling to test the DC model against fine-scale explicit equivalents. In doing, we present our hybrid numerical framework, as well as the conditions required for interpretation of the numerical results. The tests themselves progress from materials with isotropic to anisotropic mechanical and flow properties. The fine-scale simulations show that anisotropy can have noticeable effects on deformation and flow behaviour. However, our numerical experiments show that the DC approach can capture the global poroelastic behaviours of both isotropic and anisotropic fine-scale representations. 相似文献
18.
Hydrodynamic models have been widely used in urban flood modelling. Due to the prohibitive computational cost, most of urban flood simulations have been currently carried out at low spatial resolution or in small localised domains, leading to unreliable predictions. With the recent advance in high-performance computing technologies, GPU-accelerated hydrodynamic models are now capable of performing high-resolution simulations at a city scale. This paper presents a multi-GPU hydrodynamic model applied to reproduce a flood event in a 267.4 km2 urbanised domain in Fuzhou, Fujian Province, China. At 2 m resolution, the simulation is completed in nearly real time, demonstrating the efficiency and robustness of the model for high-resolution flood modelling. The model is used to further investigate the effects of varying spatial resolution and using localised domains on the simulation results. It is recommended that urban flood simulations should be performed at resolutions higher than 5 m and localised simulations may introduce unacceptable numerical errors. 相似文献
19.
A three-dimensional (3D) groundwater flow model of the deep multi-aquifer Quaternary deposits of the Po plain sedimentary basin, within a 3,300-km 2 area (Veneto, Italy), is developed, tested and applied to aid sustainable large-scale water-resources management. Integrated mathematical modelling proves significantly successful, owing to an unusual wealth of available geological, geophysical, and hydrologic data and to state-of-the-art numerical tools. Of particular interest is the evaluation of the influence of alternative conceptual models; that is, of reconstructed representations of the 3D geological model of the structure of the aquifers. The reference conceptual model is set up by means of extended geological sections and stratigraphic records, and is used to create a large, unstructured 3D finite element grid. By analyzing the effects on piezometric surfaces and on the overall water budget of geometrical perturbations from the reference structure, alternative geo-structural models, obtained by systematically shifting the pinch-out of the aquitards, are compared. Interestingly, the impacts of aquitard pinch-out prove far from negligible. The results suggest the critical importance of reliable geological models even for large, complex 3D models. The good practice of iteratively testing numerically the impact of surprises on the conceptual model, as more field information is collected, is thus supported. 相似文献
20.
Jordan suffers from water scarcity and groundwater covers the majority of Jordan’s water supply. Therefore, there is an urgent need to manage this resource conscientiously. A regional numerical groundwater flow model, developed as part of a decision support system for the country of Jordan, allows for quantification of the overexploitation of groundwater resources and enables determination of the extent of unrecorded agricultural groundwater abstraction. Groundwater in Jordan is abstracted from three main aquifers partly separated by aquitards. With updated geological, structural, and hydrogeological data available in the country, a regional numerical groundwater flow model for the whole of Jordan and the southernmost part of Syria was developed using MODFLOW. It was first calibrated for a steady-state condition using data from the 1960s, when groundwater abstraction was negligible. After transient calibration using groundwater level measurements from all aquifers, model results reproduce the large groundwater-level declines experienced in the last decades, which have led to the drying out of numerous springs. They show a reversal of groundwater flow directions in some regions, due to over-abstraction, and demonstrate that documented abstractions are not sufficient to cause the observed groundwater-level decline. Only after considering irrigation water demand derived from remote sensing data, the model is able to simulate these declines. Illegal abstractions can be quantified and predictive scenarios show the potential impact of different management strategies on future groundwater resources. 相似文献
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