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1.
The climatological signal of δ18O variations preserved in ice cores recovered from Puruogangri ice field in the central Tibetan Plateau (TP) was calibrated with regional meteorological data for the past 50 years. For the period AD 1860–2000, 5-yearly averaged ice core δ18O and a summer temperature reconstruction derived from pollen data from the same ice core were compared. The statistical results provide compelling evidence that Puruogangri ice core δ18O variations represent summer temperature changes for the central TP, and hence regional temperature history during the past 600 years was revealed. A comparison of Puruogangri ice core δ18О with several other temperature reconstructions shows that broad-scale climate anomalies since the Little Ice Age occurred synchronously across the eastern and southern TP, and the Himalayas. Common cold periods were identified in the 15th century, 1625–1645 AD, 1660–1700 AD, 1725–1775 AD, 1795–1830 AD, 1850–1870 AD, 1890–1920 AD, 1940–1950 AD, and 1975–1985 AD. The period 1725–1775 AD was one of the most prolonged cool periods during the past 400 years and corresponded to maximum Little Ice Age glacier advance of monsoonal temperate glaciers of the TP.  相似文献   

2.
Accurate temperature–depth profiles may help to assess the temperature variations associated with the climate changes in the past. Ninety-eight ground surface temperature histories inverted from the temperature–depth borehole logs drilled on the territory of the Czech Republic [Bodri, L., ermák, V., 1995. Climate changes of the last millennium inferred from borehole temperatures: results from the Czech Republic — Part I. Global Planet. Change 11, pp. 111–125; Bodri, L., ermák, V., 1997. Climate changes of the last two millennia inferred from borehole temperatures: results from the Czech Republic — Part II. Global Planet. Change 14, pp. 163–173.] are used to reconstruct the regional patterns of the respective climate change. The climate was mapped for the following periods: 1100–1300 A.D. (Little Climatic Optimum), 1400–1500 A.D., 1600–1700 A.D. (main phase of the Little Ice Age), and for the most recent climate trend after year 1960. Comparison of the obtained maps with the meteorological observations and proxy climatic reconstructions confirmed good applicability of the “geothermal” paleoclimatic reconstructions for the regional studies.  相似文献   

3.
We analyzed data from 23 boreholes at 19 sites in central and eastern Canada, for the purpose of estimating ground surface temperature (GST) histories. These boreholes were logged down to at least 550 m depth with thermistor probes. Thermal conductivity measurements had been previously made at small depth intervals for the entire depth ranges of most of the boreholes. The temperature profiles of these boreholes do not indicate water disturbance. We estimated terrain effects for each borehole using a time dependent solid-angle method. The thermal perturbations caused by lakes or deforestation near the borehole sites are insignificant in most cases. However, four of the holes were found to be severely influenced by terrain effects. GSTs estimated from the borehole data less influenced by the terraineffects form two groups. The first group, which are generally from data of better quality, show a cold period near the end of the last century before the recent warming trend; the second show it 80–100 years earlier. We consider the former typical of the climate of the Boreal climatic region of Canada. The difference between the two groups may reflect the spacial variability of the climate. Four GST estimates do not belong to either type, and the reasons are discussed.  相似文献   

4.
Climatic temperature changes at the ground surface propagate downward to the subsurface creating transient disturbances to the temperature—depth (T(z)) profile. Due to the poor thermal diffusivity of rocks the disturbances are preserved long times in the bedrock, and in a conductive regime it is possible to reveal the ground surface temperature (GST) history from borehole temperature data with inversion techniques. Geothermal temperature measurements thus provide a source of palaeoclimatic information which so far has not been utilized extensively. Inversion of GST history is, however, not straightforward and any disturbing effects should be excluded before the data can be utilized in inversion. Groundwater flow is of special importance in this respect because it is a common phenomenon in bedrock and convection often produces temperature—depth profiles resembling those affected by palaeoclimatic GST changes. In interpreting temperature—depth (T(z)) logs it is therefore not always clear whether the recorded vertical gradient variations should be attributed to the effects of palaeoclimatic ground surface temperature (GST) changes or to groundwater circulation. Using several synthetic T(z) profiles and applying general least squares inversion techniques we simulate a situation of “misinterpreting” the curvature of the T(z) profile in terms of palaeoclimatic GST changes, although it is actually produced by convective heat transfer due to groundwater flow. For comparison the opposite case is also studied, namely, genuine palaeoclimatic effects are misinterpreted as being due to disturbances caused by groundwater flow. A homogeneous half-space model is used to model T(z) profiles disturbed conductively by GST changes during the time interval 10–10000 yr B.P. and a one-dimensional porous layer model is applied for convective heat transfer calculations. The results indicate that a given T(z) profile can be attributed to either of these effects with reasonable parameter values. In addition to the synthetic T(z) profiles, a case history from a 958 m deep drill hole at Lavia, southwestern Finland, is presented. Special care is needed in analyzing T(z) data. A knowledge of geothermal data, such as temperature, thermal conductivity and diffusivity is not necessarily adequate for determining which of the phenomena (or whether a combination of them) provides the most probable interpretation of a T(z) profile. Additional information on the hydrogeological properties of the drilled strata is essential.  相似文献   

5.
New temperature logs in wells located in the grassland ecozone in the Southern Canadian Prairies in Saskatchewan, where surface disturbance is considered minor, show a large curvature in the upper 100 m. The character of this curvature is consistent with ground surface temperature (GST) warming in the 20th century. Repetition of precise temperature logs in southern Saskatchewan (years 1986 and 1997) shows the conductive nature of warming of the subsurface sediments. The magnitude of surface temperature change during that time (11 years) is high (0.3–0.4°C). To assess the conductive nature of temperature variations at the grassland surface interface, several precise air and soil temperature time series in the southern Canadian Prairies (1965–1995) were analyzed. The combined anomalies correlated at 0.85. Application of the functional space inversion (FSI) technique with the borehole temperature logs and site-specific lithology indicates a warming to date of approximately 2.5°C since a minimum in the late 18th century to mid 19th century. This warming represents an approximate increase from 4°C around 1850 to 6.5°C today. The significance of this record is that it suggests almost half of the warming occurred prior to 1900, before dramatic build up of atmospheric green house gases. This result correlates well with the proxy record of climatic change further to the north, beyond the Arctic Circle [Overpeck, J., Hughen, K., Hardy, D., Bradley, R., Case, R., Douglas, M., Finney, B., Gajewski, K., Jacoby, G., Jennings, A., Lamourex, S., Lasca, A., MacDonald, G., Moore, J., Retelle, M., Smith, S., Wolfe, A., Zielinski, G., 1997. Arctic environmental change of the last four centuries, Science 278, 1251–1256.].  相似文献   

6.
J.M.  W.A.  Y.   《Global and Planetary Change》2008,60(3-4):523-534
For almost a century, leaf margin analysis has been an important method of estimating Cenozoic paleotemperatures. However, the relation between the proportion of toothed versus entire leaves and temperature has so far been calibrated and characterized using relatively small numbers of opportunistically and irregularly collected floras.Here we present the results of the first systematic spatially-distributed analysis of the relation between leaf margins and temperature for North America.We used species range maps of native North American dicot trees to derive synthetic local floras for each 50 km grid cell in the USA and Canada, and compared the percentage of entire-margined species with the mean annual temperature in each cell. Leaf margin type for each species was assigned using illustrations from appropriate regional North America floras.This analysis confirms that high-rainfall areas of the eastern USA and Canada show a strong inverse relationship between toothed margin percentage and mean annual temperature in the range 0–25 °C. The values we estimate are roughly similar to those obtained from floras in east Asia and previous analyses in North America, but the detailed curve is more complex, showing a distinct change in slope above a mean annual temperature of 20 °C. Wetter climate areas of the coastal western USA do not show any significant correlation between leaf margin percentage and temperature. This may relate to the confounding effect of the diverse topography of the West Coast, or it may be caused by the depleted dicotyledonous tree flora of this area.Like previous studies, this paper demonstrates that there indeed is a strong relationship between leaf margin percentage and temperature on a regional scale in eastern North America. However the relationship does not have the same linear behavior as results obtained from previous analyses. We discuss the implications of the results obtained here for paleoclimatic reconstruction in the content of other leaf margin analyses based on North American sites.  相似文献   

7.
We measured the δ18O values of the whole shells of the cavernicolous micro-bivalvia Carditella iejimensis obtained from sediments within a submarine cave (31 m water depth) at Ie Island (Okinawa Island, Japan) in the subtropical Northwest Pacific. Our results show no significant millennial-scale trend in the δ18O record, implying that both springtime temperature and the δ18O of sea water at 30 m depth around the Okinawa Islands have been stable for the past 3000 years at values similar to those of today. Moreover, we found one exceptionally light δ18O value from specimens spanning the past 250 years. The δ18O-derived temperature represents a departure of 2.1 °C from the average value for the past 250 years, being equal to the departure recorded during unusually high temperatures in the spring of 1998. This finding may imply that such high springtime sea surface temperature has been a rare event over the past 3000 years.  相似文献   

8.
Past and present glacier changes have been studied at Cordón Martial, Cordillera Fueguina Oriental, Tierra del Fuego, providing novel data for the Holocene deglaciation history of southern South America and extrapolating as well its future behavior based on predicted climatic changes. Regional geomorphologic and stratigraphic correlations indicate that the last glacier advance deposited the ice-proximal (“internal”) moraines of Cordón Martial, around 330 14C yr BP, during the Late Little Ice Age (LLIA). Since then glaciers have receded slowly, until 60 years ago, when major glacier retreat started. There is a good correspondence for the past 100 years between the surface area variation of four small cirque glaciers at Cordón Martial and the annual temperature and precipitation data of Ushuaia. Between 1984 and 1998, Martial Este Glacier lost 0.64 ± 0.02 × 106 m3 of ice mass (0.59 ± 0.02 × 106 m3 w.e.), corresponding to an average ice thinning of 7.0 ± 0.2 m (6.4 ± 0.2 m w.e), according to repeated topographic mapping. More detailed climatic data have been obtained since 1998 at the Martial Este Glacier, including air temperature, humidity and solar radiation. These records, together with the monthly mass balance measured since March 2000, document the annual response of the Martial Este Glacier to the climate variation. Mass balances during hydrological years were positive in 2000, negative in 2001 and near equilibrium in 2002. Finally, using these data and the regional temperature trend projections, modeled for different future scenarios by the Atmosphere-Ocean Model (GISS-NASA/GSFC), potential climatic-change effects on this mountain glacier were extrapolated. The analysis shows that only the Martial Este Glacier may survive this century.  相似文献   

9.
Several temperature–depth profiles recorded at Pipe Mine, 32 km southwest of Thompson, Manitoba, in central Canada, exhibit a marked departure from the equilibrium gradient. These profiles could be interpreted as indicating strong warming (up to 4.5 K) of the ground surface during the last 200 years. All the temperature profiles at Pipe Mine show perturbations stronger than at the others sites in the Thompson Nickel Belt. Temperature profiles recorded near the town of Thompson show a moderate warming (≈1–2 K) trend, while temperature profiles at Soab, 45 km southwest of Pipe Mine, indicate very moderate cooling (≈0.5 K). There was little human activity in this part of Manitoba before the development of the mining camp of Thompson in the late 1950s. Our study shows the variability of ground surface temperature histories at a very local scale (i.e. <1 km) with much stronger signals at some of the Pipe Mine drill holes than at others. These holes are located within 500 m of the highway and a power line built after 1955, at ≈3 km from the now abandoned open pit mine. The ground surface temperature history (GSTH) obtained by the inversion of Pipe Mine temperature profiles suggests that a recent (50 years) and strong (≈1–2 K) ground surface warming is superimposed on a 1–2 K warming trend that started 200 years ago, without any indication of a cold (little ice ages) episode before. The recent warming (40 years) at Pipe Mine is only a local effect and is likely to be related to the presence of the highway. Before 1960, the ground surface temperature history for Pipe is similar to other sites in the Thompson region. Ground surface temperature histories from other profiles within and near the city of Thompson seem less affected by environmental perturbations and their trends are parallel to that of the meteorological records in the Canadian Prairies.  相似文献   

10.
In the present paper, we report on micropaleontological (dinocysts) and isotopic (18O and 13C in foraminifers) analyses performed in Holocene sediments from fifteen cores raised from the central and northwest North Atlantic. Sea-surface temperature (SST), sea-surface salinity (SSS), thus potential density, and sea-ice cover are reconstructed based on dinocyst assemblages. After proper calibration, oxygen isotope data on the mesopelagic foraminifer Neogloboquadrina pachyderma left coiled (Npl) are converted into potential density values deeper in the water column, thus allowing documentation of vertical density gradients and identification of intervals favourable for winter convection to occur with formation of intermediate Labrador Sea Water (LSW). The most important findings from this study include: (1) the existence of an early-mid Holocene thermal optimum with positive anomalies up to 6 °C above present along the main SW–NE axis of the North Atlantic Current, but no significant SST maximum at most sites along eastern Canadian margins; (2) the evidence for larger than present amplitude of annual SSTs during the early Holocene, thus for a stronger seasonality; (3) minimum sea-ice cover from 11 500 to 6000 cal years BP, and a slight increase of sea-ice variability, and average seasonal duration of 0.5 to 1 month per year afterwards; (4) variable SSS during the entire Holocene, suggesting changes in the routing and rates of freshwater–meltwater discharges from the Arctic and eastern Canada; (5) the setting of conditions compatible with LSW production after 8 ka only, and likely a more steady production during the late Holocene; (6) an overall trend for a potential density increase of the Labrador Sea, throughout the Holocene, matching a decreasing trend eastward, thus suggesting a progressive enhancement of the western branch of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning with respect to its northeastern route; and (7) indication of maximum production and fast dispersal of LSW in the entire North Atlantic during recent times only, as suggested by linearly-converging δ18O-values of Npl from all sites, towards its modern relatively homogeneous composition ( 2.5/2.6‰). The overall picture of the Holocene North Atlantic arising from this study is that of a basin marked by a strong regionalism with large discrepancies in hydrographical trends and high frequency oscillations, at least partly controlled by freshwater–meltwater routes and rates of export from the Arctic.  相似文献   

11.
Modern-day synoptic-scale eastern Mediterranean climatology provides a useful context to synthesize the diverse late Pleistocene (60–12 ka) paleohydrologic and paleoenvironmental indicators of past climatic conditions in the Levant and the deserts to its south and east. We first critically evaluate, extract, and summarize paleoenvironmental and paleohydrologic records. Then, we propose a framework of eastern Mediterranean atmospheric circulation features interacting with the morphology and location of the southeast Mediterranean coast. Together they strongly control the spatial distribution of rainfall and wind pattern. This cyclone–physiography interaction enforces the observed rainfall patterns by hampering rainfall generation south and southeast of the latitude of the north Sinai coast, currently at 31°15′.The proposed framework explains the much-increased rains in Lebanon and northern Israel and Jordan as deduced from pollen, rise and maintenance of Lake Lisan, and speleothem formation in areas currently arid and semiarid. The proposed framework also accounts for the southward and eastward transition into semiarid, arid, and hyperarid deserts as expressed in thick loess accumulation at the deserts' margins, dune migration from west to east in the Sinai and the western Negev, and the formation of hyperarid (< 80 mm yr− 1) gypsic–salic soils in the southern Negev and Sinai. Our climatic synthesis explains the hyperarid condition in the southern Negev, located only 200–250 km south of the much-increased rains in the north, probably reflecting a steeper rainfall gradient than the present-day gradient from the wetter Levant into its bordering southern and eastern deserts.At present, the rainiest winter seasons in Lebanon and northern and central Israel are associated with more frequent (+ 20%), deeper Cyprus Lows traversing the eastern Mediterranean at approximately the latitude of southern Turkey. Even these wettest years in northern Israel do not yield above average annual rainfall amounts in the hyperarid southern Negev. This region is mainly influenced by the Active Red Sea Troughs that produce only localized rains. The eastern Mediterranean Cyprus Lows also produce more dust storms and transport higher amounts of suspended dust to the loess area than any other atmospheric pattern. Concurrent rainfall and dust are essential to the late Pleistocene formation of the elongated thick loess zone along the desert northern margin. Even with existing dust storms, the lack of rain and very sparse vegetation account for the absence of late Pleistocene loess sequences from the southern Negev and the formation of hyperarid soils.When the north Sinai coast shifted 30–70 km northwest due to last glacial global sea level lowering, the newly exposed coastal areas supplied the sand and dust to these active eastern Mediterranean cyclones. This enforced the latitude of the northern boundary of the loess zone to be directly due east of the LGM shoreline. This shift of coast to the northwest inhibited rainfall in the southern Levant deserts and maintained their hyperaridity. Concurrently, frequent deep eastern Mediterranean Cyprus Lows were funneled along the northern Mediterranean increasing (probably doubling) the rains in central and northern Israel, Lebanon, southwestern Syria and northern Jordan. These storms and rains formed lakes, forests, and speleothems only a short distance north of the deserts in the southern Levant.  相似文献   

12.
Thirty borehole temperature–depth profiles in the central and southern Urals, Russia were scrutinized for evidence of ground surface temperature histories. We explored two inversion schemes: a simple ramp inversion in which solutions are parameterized in terms of an onset time and magnitude of change and a more sophisticated functional space inverse algorithm in which the functional form of the solution is left unspecified. To enhance and potentially identify latitudinal differences in the ground surface temperature signal, we subdivided the data into three groups based on geographic proximity and simultaneously inverted the borehole temperature–depth logs. The simultaneous inversions highlighted 13 temperature–depth logs that could not both fit a common ground surface temperature history and a priori models within reasonable bounds. Our results confirm that this is an effective way to reduce site-specific noise from an ensemble of boreholes. Each inversion scheme gives comparable results indicating locally variable warming on the order of 1°C starting between 1800 and 1900 AD. Similarly surface air temperature records from 12 nearby meteorological stations exhibit locally variable warming also on the order of 1°C of warming during the 20th century. To explore the degree to which borehole temperatures and surface air temperature (SAT) time series are responding to the same signal, we average the SAT data into the same three groups and used these averages as a forcing function at the Earth's surface to generate synthetic transient temperature profiles. Root mean square (RMS) misfits between these synthetic temperature profiles and averaged temperature–depth profiles are low, suggesting that first-order curvature in borehole temperatures and variations in SAT records are correlated.  相似文献   

13.
An investigation is made of the “white earth” scenario, wherein the positive feedback mechanism, involving temperature, snow/ice cover,and albedo, renders the earth's surface covered with permanent snow freezes the oceans when the solar input is sufficiently low. A three-dimensional energy budget climate model is used to stimulate the earth's response to a 30% decrease in the solar constant. The decrease occurs over a period of 90 years. The model simulates an additional 100 years to allow conditions to stabilize. At the end of the model run, the planetary mean surface temperature is 204.8°K, the oceans are completely frozen over, and the maximum seasonal mean temperature any grid point of the planet is 251.6°K in the western Gobi Desert in JJA. The highest average annual temperature is 238.7°K in western Zaire. A significant portion of the planet's land surface is free of permanent snow cover. The result of this model run suggest that the hydrologic balance may provide a significant negative feedback mechanism to counter the snow/ice-albedo positive feedback mechanism and that the earth's climate may be less sensitive to variations in the solar constant than previously believed.  相似文献   

14.
Since October 1990, 3 weeks after the launch of the Ulysses spacecraft, the dust detector onboard recorded impacts of cosmic dust particles. Besides dust impacts, the detector recorded noise from a variety of sources. So far, a very rigid scheme had been applied to eliminate noise from impact data. The data labeled “big” dust impacts previously led to the identification of interstellar dust and of dust streams from Jupiter. The analysis presented here is concerned with data of signals of small amplitudes which are strongly contaminated by noise. Impacts identified in this data set are called “small” impacts. It is shown that dust impacts can be clearly distinguished from noise for most of the events due to the multi-coincidence characteristics of the instrument. 516 “small” impacts have been identified. For an additional 119 events, strong arguments can be given that they are probably small dust impacts. Thereby, the total number of dust impacts increases from 333 to 968 in the time period from 28 October 1990 to 31 December 1992. This increase permits a better statistical analysis, especially of the Jupiter dust streams which consist mostly of small and fast particles. Additional dust streams have been identified between the already known streams before and after Jupiter flyby. The dependence of the deflection from the Jupiter direction, the stream intensity and width on Jupiter distance support the assertion that they have been emitted from the Jovian system. The masses of the 635 “small” dust particles range from 6 × 10−17 to 3 × 10−10 g with a mean value of 1 × 10−12 g, which compares to a range from 1 × 10−16 to 4 × 10−9 g with a mean value of 2 × 10−11 g for the previously identified 333 “big” dust particles.  相似文献   

15.
An anomalous reduction in forest growth indices and temperature sensitivity has been detected in tree-ring width and density records from many circumpolar northern latitude sites since around the middle 20th century. This phenomenon, also known as the “divergence problem”, is expressed as an offset between warmer instrumental temperatures and their underestimation in reconstruction models based on tree rings. The divergence problem has potentially significant implications for large-scale patterns of forest growth, the development of paleoclimatic reconstructions based on tree-ring records from northern forests, and the global carbon cycle. Herein we review the current literature published on the divergence problem to date, and assess its possible causes and implications. The causes, however, are not well understood and are difficult to test due to the existence of a number of covarying environmental factors that may potentially impact recent tree growth. These possible causes include temperature-induced drought stress, nonlinear thresholds or time-dependent responses to recent warming, delayed snowmelt and related changes in seasonality, and differential growth/climate relationships inferred for maximum, minimum and mean temperatures. Another possible cause of the divergence described briefly herein is ‘global dimming’, a phenomenon that has appeared, in recent decades, to decrease the amount of solar radiation available for photosynthesis and plant growth on a large scale. It is theorized that the dimming phenomenon should have a relatively greater impact on tree growth at higher northern latitudes, consistent with what has been observed from the tree-ring record. Additional potential causes include “end effects” and other methodological issues that can emerge in standardization and chronology development, and biases in instrumental target data and its modeling. Although limited evidence suggests that the divergence may be anthropogenic in nature and restricted to the recent decades of the 20th century, more research is needed to confirm these observations.  相似文献   

16.
Significant climatic changes over Northern Eurasia during the 20th century have been reflected in numerous variables of economic, social, and ecological interest, including the natural frequency of forest fires. For the former USSR, we are now using the Global Daily Climatology Network and a new Global Synoptic Data Network archive, GSDN, created jointly by U.S. National Climatic Data Center and Russian Research Institute for Hydrometeorological Information. Data from these archives (approximately 1500 of them having sufficiently long meteorological time series suitable for participation in our analyses) are employed to estimate systematic changes in indices used in the United States and Russia to assess potential forest fire danger. We use four indices: (1) Keetch–Byram Drought Index, (KBDI; this index was developed and widely used in the United States); (2) Nesterov, (3) Modified Nesterov, and (4) Zhdanko Indices (these indices were developed and widely used in Russia). Analyses show that after calibration, time series of the days with increased potential forest fire danger constructed using each of these three indices (a) are well correlated and (b) deliver similar conclusions about systematic changes in the weather conditions conducive to forest fires. Specifically, over the Eastern half of Northern Eurasia (Siberia and the Russian Far East) statistically significant increases in indices that characterize the weather conditions conducive to forest fires were found. These areas coincide with the areas of most significant warming during the past several decades south of the Arctic Circle. West of the Ural Mountains, the same indices show a steady decrease in the frequency of “dry weather summer days” during the past 60 yr. This study is corroborated with available statistics of forest fires and with observed changes in drought statistics in agricultural regions of Northern Eurasia.  相似文献   

17.
Understanding of past climatic variability over the Tibetan Plateau is still limited because of the lack of long-term climatic records. Here we reconstruct the mean summer (June–August) minimum temperature for the past 379 years based on tree-ring data in the source region of the Yangtze River. This reconstruction successfully captures recent abrupt climatic changes and agrees in general with other temperature reconstructions for the Tibetan Plateau on a decadal timescale. The cold and warm periods coincide with documented glacier advances and retreats on the east and southeast Tibetan Plateau. The interval 1816–22 is among the coldest periods in the reconstruction and may be related to the influence of the Tambora eruption in Indonesia in 1815. Comparisons with other paleoclimatic proxies imply a high degree of confidence for our reconstruction and its indicative power for a large-scale climate variability on the Tibetan Plateau.  相似文献   

18.
During the last half of the 20th century, cumulative annual discharge from 137 representative rivers (watershed areas ranging from 0.3 to 6300 × 103 km2) to the global ocean remained constant, although annual discharge from about one-third of these rivers changed by more than 30%. Discharge trends for many rivers reflected mostly changes in precipitation, primarily in response to short- and longer-term atmospheric–oceanic signals; with the notable exception of the Parana, Mississippi, Niger and Cunene rivers, few of these “normal" rivers experienced significant changes in either discharge or precipitation. Cumulative discharge from many mid-latitude rivers, in contrast, decreased by 60%, reflecting in large part impacts due to damming, irrigation and interbasin water transfers. A number of high-latitude and high-altitude rivers experienced increased discharge despite generally declining precipitation. Poorly constrained meteorological and hydrological data do not seem to explain fully these “excess” rivers; changed seasonality in discharge, decreased storage and/or decreased evapotranspiration also may play important roles.  相似文献   

19.
The prairie-forest transition in midcontinental North America is a major physiognomic boundary, and its shifts during the Holocene are a classic example of climate-driven ecotonal dynamics. Recent work suggests asymmetrical Holocene behavior, with a relatively rapid early Holocene deforestation and more gradual reforestation later in the Holocene. This paper presents a new synthesis of the Holocene history of the Great Plains prairie-forest ecotone in the north-central US and central Canada that updates prior mapping efforts and systematically assesses rates of change. Changes in percent woody cover (%WC) are inferred from fossil pollen records, using the modern analog technique and surface-sediment pollen samples cross-referenced against remotely sensed observations. For contemporary pollen samples from the Great Plains, %WC linearly correlates to percent arboreal pollen (%AP), but regression parameters vary interregionally. At present, %AP is consistently higher than %WC, because of high background levels of arboreal pollen. Holocene maps of the eastern prairie-forest ecotone agree with prior maps, showing a rapid decrease in %WC and eastward prairie advance between 10,000 and 8000 ka (1 ka = 1000 calibrated years before present), a maximum eastward position of the ecotone from 7 to 6 ka, and increased %WC and westward prairie retreat after 6 ka. Ecotone position is ambiguous in Iowa and southeastern Minnesota, due to a scarcity of modern analogs for early-Holocene samples with high Ulmus abundances and for samples from alluvial sediments. The northern prairie-forest ecotone was positioned in central Saskatchewan between 12 and 10 ka, stabilized from 10 to 6 ka despite decreases in %WC at some sites, then moved south after 6 ka. In both east and north, ecotonal movements are consistent with a dry early Holocene and increasing moisture availability after 6 ka. Sites near the ecotone consistently show an asymmetric pattern of abrupt early Holocene deforestation (< 300 years) and gradual reforestation after 6 ka. Early Holocene decreases in %WC are faster than the corresponding drops in %AP, because the analog-based %WC reconstructions correct for the high background levels of arboreal pollen types that blur temporal variations in %AP. For example, at Elk Lake, the %AP decline lasts 1000 years, whereas the %WC decline occurs between adjacent pollen samples, approximately 300 years apart. Thus, early Holocene deforestation may have been even more abrupt than previously recognized. Rapid deforestation likely was promoted both by rapid climate changes around 8.2 ka and positive fire-vegetation feedbacks. Non-linear vegetational responses to hydrological variability are consistent with 1) other paleorecords showing rapid die-offs of some eastern tree species in response to aridity and 2) observations of threshold-type ecological responses to recent climate events. The 21st-century trajectory for the Great Plains prairie-forest ecotone is uncertain, because climate models differ over the direction of regional precipitation trends, but future drying would be more likely to trigger threshold-type shifts in ecotone position.  相似文献   

20.
An M.F. radar (2.2 MHz) operating at Saskatoon, Canada (52°N, 107°W) has been used to produce continuous wind data ( 80–110km) from September 1978–April 1981. The 24-, 12-h tidal oscillations reveal regular summer-winter transitions; in particular the semi-diurnal tide demonstrates strikingly regular and rapid equinoctial changes over the three years. The vernal and autumnal equinox changes are clearly different in morphology. Shorter term tidal fluctuations (2d τ 10d) are compared with mean winds and gravity wave amplitudes, as well as with satellite-derived stratospheric temperatures.

Spectral analysis of monthly data sets for 1980, from 90–105 km, reveal oscillations of the expected 8-, 12-, 24-h periods, but also of 10-, 16- and 2-, 5/6d. A modulation of the “2-d” wave by the 12-h wave is suggested as a possible cause of these surprisingly regular oscillations.  相似文献   


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