共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
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基于遥感藻总量和气象因子的巢湖不同湖区藻华预测 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
湖泊能为人类提供不可或缺的资源,而全球普遍存在的湖泊富营养化导致的藻华频繁暴发正不断损害湖泊生态环境服务功能.为合理保护湖泊环境和防治藻华危害,需预测藻华暴发.以我国富营养巢湖为研究区,本文构建了一种基于遥感藻总量和气象因子的不同湖区藻华暴发概率预测方法.基于MODIS/Aqua数据,研究首先反演了2003—2019年日尺度的藻华分布和考虑垂向结构的水柱藻总量.然后,统计了西、中和东巢湖的藻华面积,判别了藻华/非藻华日,并匹配日平均藻总量和气象因子.最后,筛选出藻华形成的关键影响因子——藻总量、气温和水汽压,并构建了不同湖区日藻华暴发概率的Logistic预测模型.不同湖区月平均藻总量基本一致,但藻华暴发日占比呈“西高东低”特征.对西、中和东巢湖的藻华/非藻华检验样本,模型精度分别为90%、85%和89.5%,模型也适用于2020年夏秋季和冬春季藻华预测.湖泊藻华暴发是藻类大量增殖并在一定气象条件下的产物,故基于遥感藻总量和气象因子的藻华暴发概率预测科学合理,可推广应用于太湖等其他富营养湖泊. 相似文献
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太湖蓝藻水华的年度情势预测方法探讨 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
在太湖、巢湖、滇池、洱海、三峡水库等我国重要湖泊和水库,蓝藻水华时常发生但年际之间藻情往往有较大差异,给蓝藻水华的防控物资及人员投入、湖库水源地水质安全保障带来较大的挑战,亟待探索周年尺度的蓝藻水华强度预测方法.本文收集了太湖连续15年的蓝藻水华情势观测数据和同步的气象、水文数据用于构建蓝藻水华预测模型,提出了利用遥感反演的蓝藻水华面积(A_(BL))及人工观测的水体浮游植物叶绿素α浓度([Chl.a]_(LB))共同表征的蓝藻水华强度指标(BI).分析了太湖年尺度的BI值与环境条件的关系,提出了基于年初能够掌握的气象、水文、营养盐等综合环境指标进行年度BI预测的统计模型.结果表明,太湖年度BI值与冬季及初春(12-3月)日均水温(WT_(12-3))、冬春季有效积温(AT_(12-3))、前一年降雨总量(RF_(YB))等环境因子呈显著正相关,与冬季及初春的水体总氮(TN_(12-3))、溶解性总氮(DTN_(12-3))、总磷(TP_(12-3))及溶解性总磷(DTP_(12-3))不存在统计上的显著相关关系.此外,本研究开展了基于上述因子(BI为因变量,其余环境因子为自变量)的多元(或一元)回归分析,并遴选出最优模型.总体而言,最优模型的模拟计算结果与实测浓度具有较高的一致性,因此本研究得出的模型对太湖蓝藻水华年际强度预测具有较高精度.本研究对太湖等富营养化湖库蓝藻水华的中长期预测具有指导意义. 相似文献
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This paper presented trend analysis of droughts in Kerala, Telangana, and Orissa meteorological subdivisions in India and proposed a framework for drought prediction by employing the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD)‐based prediction models. The study used 3‐month standardized precipitation index (SPI3) for drought analysis. The trend analysis of SPI3 series for the period 1871–2012 using Mann–Kendall method showed statistically significant increasing trend in Kerala and Telangana subdivisions and a decreasing trend in Orissa subdivision. In addition, the non‐linear trend component extracted from EMD showed statistically significant changes in all the three subdivisions. Then, the study proposed a hybrid approach for prediction of short‐term droughts by coupling multivariate extension of EMD (MEMD) with stepwise linear regression (SLR) and genetic programming (GP) methods. First, the multivariate dataset comprising the SPI3 series of current and lagged time steps are decomposed using the MEMD. Then, SLR/GP models are developed to predict each subseries of SPI3 of desired time step considering the subseries of predictor variables at the corresponding timescales as inputs. The resulting models at different timescales are recombined to obtain the SPI3 values of the desired time step. The method is applied for prediction of short‐term droughts in the three subdivisions. The results obtained by the hybrid models are compared with that obtained by conventional prediction models using M5 Model Trees and GP. The rigorous performance evaluation based on multiple statistical criteria clearly exhibited the superiority of the hybrid approaches (i.e., prediction models with MEMD‐based decomposition over models without decomposition) for prediction of SPI3 in three subdivisions. Further, the study found that MEMD‐GP model performs marginally better than the MEMD‐SLR model due to its efficacy in modelling high frequency modes. 相似文献
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The complexity of the evapotranspiration process and its variability in time and space have imposed some limitations on previously developed evapotranspiration models. In this study, two data‐driven models: genetic programming (GP) and artificial neural networks (ANNs), and statistical regression models were developed and compared for estimating the hourly eddy covariance (EC)‐measured actual evapotranspiration (AET) using meteorological variables. The utility of the investigated data‐driven models was also compared with that of HYDRUS‐1D model, which makes use of conventional Penman–Monteith (PM) model for the prediction of AET. The latent heat (LE), which is measured using the EC method, is modelled as a function of five climatic variables: net radiation, ground temperature, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed in a reconstructed landscape located in Northern Alberta, Canada. Several ANN models were evaluated using two training algorithms of Levenberg–Marquardt and Bayesian regularization. The GP technique was used to generate mathematical equations correlating AET to the five climatic variables. Furthermore, the climatic variables, as well as their two‐factor interactions, were statistically analysed to obtain a regression equation and to indicate the climatic factors having significant effect on the evapotranspiration process. HYDRUS‐1D model as an available physically based model was examined for estimating AET using climatic variables, leaf area index (LAI), and soil moisture information. The results indicated that all three proposed data‐driven models were able to approximate the AET reasonably well; however, GP and regression models had better generalization ability than the ANN model. The results of HYDRUS‐1D model exhibited that a physically based model, such as HYDRUS‐1D, might be comparable or even inferior to the data‐driven models in terms of the overall prediction accuracy. Based on the developed GP and regression models, net radiation and ground temperature had larger contribution to the AET process than other variables. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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大型浅水湖泊藻类模型参数敏感性分析 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
选取太湖作为典型湖泊在之前研究基础上建立藻类模型,对模型中与藻类有关的40个参数进行拉丁超立方抽样,并使用区域敏感性分析方法和普适似然不确定性分析方法进行敏感性分析.结果表明:在所选的40个参数中,有7个参数是敏感的参数,对模拟的结果影响较大.在藻类生长、基础代谢、牧食和沉降4个藻类变化过程中藻类生长的敏感参数最多,影响最大;在藻类生长项中,叶绿素的消光系数是藻类生长光照限制中的最敏感参数,而最低适宜生长温度及其对藻类生长的影响系数则是温度限制中的敏感参数;并且不同湖区的不确定性在不同时间差异明显,对于藻类低浓度湖区和藻类暴发期的模拟需要加以关注. 相似文献
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蓝藻水华是全球性的水环境健康问题,对水华暴发过程信息的快速准确获取是制定有效防治措施的关键.卫星遥感因具有大范围、周期性观测的特点,被广泛地用于湖泊蓝藻水华的时空动态监测.本文指出在利用遥感对湖泊蓝藻水华进行研究时,需要注意的4个问题:(1)湖泊水体中泥沙等信号对藻华存在干扰;(2)大气程辐射及水陆边界影响藻华特征提取结果;(3)卫星数据的有效观测频次影响获取的藻华时空变化趋势;(4)卫星遥感难以实现藻华暴发区的叶绿素浓度准确反演.本文分析了形成上述问题的主要原因,并建议相关的研究工作者在选用合适的遥感数据及方法时,对它们的潜在影响进行评估. 相似文献
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Reservoirs of lowland floodplain rivers with eutrophic backgrounds cause variations in the hydrological and hydraulic conditions of estuaries and low-dam reservoir areas, which can promote planktonic algae to proliferate and algal bloom outbreaks. Understanding the ecological effects of variations in hydrological and hydraulic processes in lowland rivers is important for algal bloom control. In this study, the middle and lower reaches of the Han River, China, a typical regulated lowland river with a eutrophic background, are selected. Based on the effect of hydrological and hydraulic variability on algal blooms, a hydrological management strategy for river algal bloom control is proposed. The results showed that (a) differences in river morphology and background nutrient levels cause significant differences in the critical threshold flow velocities for algal bloom outbreaks between natural river and low-dam reservoir sections; there is no uniform threshold flow velocity for algal bloom control. (b) There are significant differences in the river hydrological/hydraulic conditions between years with and without algal blooms. The average river flow, water level and velocity in years with algal blooms are significantly lower than those in years without algal blooms. (c) For different river sections where algal blooms occur and to meet the threshold flow velocities, the joint operation of cascade reservoirs and diversion projects is an effective method to prevent and control algal blooms in regulated lowland rivers. This study is expected to deepen our understanding of the ecological significance of special hydrological processes and guide algal bloom management in regulated lowland rivers. 相似文献
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近年来随着人类的活动日益加剧,水体富营养化问题已经严重威胁到湖泊生态安全。为了快速并准确地获取藻华爆发的范围,本文提出浮游藻类指数线性拟合模型（FAI linear fitting model, FAI-L）。在以往的研究中,NDVI(normalized difference vegetation index)已经广泛应用于藻华的识别中,且采用坡度计算获取NDVI阈值的方法也得到验证,相对于NDVI,FAI对环境条件的改变敏感度较低,且由于FAI增加了短红外波段,能够有效地降低部分大气和薄云的影响,对藻华的识别有较高的精度,但是FAI识别藻华的阈值如何确定的问题没有有效的解决办法。本文通过建立NDVI与FAI的线性拟合方程,利用NDVI阈值确定FAI阈值,能够有效地解决FAI阈值确定问题。通过Landsat8和Sentinel-2的提取结果显示：（1）FAI-L相对于NDVI提取结果在精度上有较大提升。采用该方法对于Landsat8影像的藻华提取精度为97.16%,相对于NDVI的提取精度（91.72%）提高了5.44%。（2）以Sentinel-2数据为基础探究FAI-L的适用性情... 相似文献
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以9期Landsat TM/ETM+影像为数据源,基于K-T变换和归一化植被指数(NDVI),建立了湖泊蓝藻水华信息提取的决策树模型.基于大气顶面反射率图像,选用2005年10月17日太湖图像进行了对比验证,表明决策树模型比单波段阈值法、多波段阈值法(RVI、DVI、NDVI)能够更有效地提取蓝藻水华信息,区分陆生植被、水生植物和水华,省去了水体掩膜的过程.使用太湖2002年10月25日和2011年7月22日图像、巢湖2005年8月12日的图像,验证决策树模型方法和工作流程的有效性.使用多期TM图像确定了阈值的取值范围,其中,亮度、绿度、NDVI的下限值依次为0.191、-0.007、-0.054,湿度下限范围为0.07~0.15;亮度阈值上限范围为0.3~0.7、绿度为0.2~0.5、湿度为0.1~0.3,这些结果可作为湖泊蓝藻水华遥感监测的参考. 相似文献
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Comparative study of monthly inflow prediction methods for the Three Gorges Reservoir 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Yun Wang Shenglian Guo Hua Chen Yanlai Zhou 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(3):555-570
Due to the complexity of influencing factors and the limitation of existing scientific knowledge, current monthly inflow prediction accuracy is unable to meet the requirements of various water users yet. A flow time series is usually considered as a combination of quasi-periodic signals contaminated by noise, so prediction accuracy can be improved by data preprocess. Singular spectrum analysis (SSA), as an efficient preprocessing method, is used to decompose the original inflow series into filtered series and noises. Current application of SSA only selects filtered series as model input without considering noises. This paper attempts to prove that noise may contain hydrological information and it cannot be ignored, a new method that considerers both filtered and noises series is proposed. Support vector machine (SVM), genetic programming (GP), and seasonal autoregressive (SAR) are chosen as the prediction models. Four criteria are selected to evaluate the prediction model performance: Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, Water Balance efficiency, relative error of annual average maximum (REmax) monthly flow and relative error of annual average minimum (REmin) monthly flow. The monthly inflow data of Three Gorges Reservoir is analyzed as a case study. Main results are as following: (1) coupling with the SSA, the performance of the SVM and GP models experience a significant increase in predicting the inflow series. However, there is no significant positive change in the performance of SAR (1) models. (2) After considering noises, both modified SSA-SVM and modified SSA-GP models perform better than SSA-SVM and SSA-GP models. Results of this study indicated that the data preprocess method SSA can significantly improve prediction precision of SVM and GP models, and also proved that noises series still contains some information and has an important influence on model performance. 相似文献
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湖泊藻华问题已成为全球水生态环境领域面临的长期挑战,风力条件变化和引调水工程的水力调度能改变湖体水动力结构,对藻类的生长和聚集过程产生影响,进行该过程的精细化监测和机制分析对于湖泊藻华预报预警和应急处置具有重要意义。本研究基于Hiamwari-8/AHI卫星遥感高频监测数据,对比分析了归一化差异植被指数(NDVI)、增强植被指数(EVI)和浮游藻类指数(FAI) 3种不同指数对太湖藻华的反演效果,开展了典型风力条件下和水力调度下太湖藻华生消过程的持续监测分析。结果表明,FAI对藻华区域和非藻华区域的区分更加明显,其阈值提取的藻华面积与基于MODIS图像解译的藻华面积的相对误差最低,为-2.27%。当营养盐充足且水温持续保持在蓝藻大量生长增殖的阈值以上时,风力条件是导致太湖藻类迁移聚集的关键因子,风向主要影响藻类的水平迁移,使其进行方向性迁移并逐渐形成大面积藻华区域。风速主要影响藻类的垂向迁移并存在临界阈值,当风速低于约2.5 m/s的临界风速时,藻华面积随风速增加而增加;当风速高于临界风速时,藻华面积随风速增加而降低。水力调度对距离较近的贡湖湾区域具有显著影响,主要通过水动力扰动来影响... 相似文献
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三峡水库蓄水后对支流大宁河富营养化特征及水动力的影响 总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5
三峡水库蓄水后支流大宁河水华频发,为了揭示水库蓄水以来,大宁河富营养化变化趋势以及水华暴发期间水动力等环境因子的影响特征,自2005年长期跟踪监测大宁河的水质状况,并于2010年针对东坪坝库湾2次典型水华事件,初步探讨了水华暴发期间的主要影响因素.结果表明:2005年以来,大宁河水体处于中度营养状态,水质尚好,但低估了水华敏感期的富营养化状况.东坪坝3月水华暴发期间,叶绿素a浓度与流速呈显著负相关,与pH、DO也呈显著相关,表明在此次水华期间,流速对藻细胞的增殖或聚集产生直接或间接的影响,pH和DO是引起水华暴发的主要水质因子;5月水华暴发期间,叶绿素a浓度与流速呈显著负相关,与流量呈显著正相关,同时与pH、透明度(SD)呈显著相关,表明在这次水华期间,流速和流量都对藻细胞增殖或聚集产生直接或间接的影响,pH和SD成为水质敏感因子.3月和5月水华暴发时间分别处于水库高水位运行期和泄水期,这可能是导致水华影响因子不同的主要原因,但具体机理还有待于进一步研究.本文结果表明在三峡水库调度运行的不同阶段支流库湾水华暴发的机制不同,需要针对不同时段支流库湾水环境特征分别加以调查研究. 相似文献
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Though forecasting of river flow has received a great deal of attention from engineers and researchers throughout the world, this still continues to be a challenging task owing to the complexity of the process. In the last decade or so, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been widely applied, and their ability to model complex phenomena has been clearly demonstrated. However, the success of ANNs depends very crucially on having representative records of sufficient length. Further, the forecast accuracy decreases rapidly with an increase in the forecast horizon. In this study, the use of the Darwinian theory‐based recent evolutionary technique of genetic programming (GP) is suggested to forecast fortnightly flow up to 4‐lead. It is demonstrated that short lead predictions can be significantly improved from a short and noisy time series if the stochastic (noise) component is appropriately filtered out. The deterministic component can then be easily modelled. Further, only the immediate antecedent exogenous and/or non‐exogenous inputs can be assumed to control the process. With an increase in the forecast horizon, the stochastic components also play an important role in the forecast, besides the inherent difficulty in ascertaining the appropriate input variables which can be assumed to govern the underlying process. GP is found to be an efficient tool to identify the most appropriate input variables to achieve reasonable prediction accuracy for higher lead‐period forecasts. A comparison with ANNs suggests that though there is no significant difference in the prediction accuracy, GP does offer some unique advantages. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Eutrophication Dynamics of Tolo Harbour, Hong Kong 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
The time and spatial variation of water quality in Tolo Harbour, a eutrophic landlocked semi-enclosed bay frequented by algal blooms, is studied using a dynamic eutrophication model. Hourly changes of tide levels and currents are computed by a link-node model assuming M2 tidal forcing. Phytoplankton growth is assumed to be limited by solar radiation, nitrogen and temperature. The model incorporates light acclimation by algae, self-shading, photosynthetic production, nutrient uptake, and a dynamic determination of the carbon to chlorophyll ratio. In particular, sediment-water-pollutant interactions are modelled via an anaerobic benthic layer segment. Using recorded pollution loads and environmental forcing as input, the model predictions of daily-averaged water quality are compared with the extensive water quality monitoring data of the Environmental Protection Department (EPD). The predicted spatial distribution and trends of algal biomass, inorganic nitrogen, dissolved oxygen (DO), as well as sediment oxygen demand (SOD), are in general agreement with field observations. 相似文献
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巢湖蓝藻水华时空分布(2000-2015年) 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
巢湖是我国五大淡水湖之一,近年来水体富营养化严重,蓝藻水华频繁暴发.通过收集2000-2015年晴好天气下2478景MODIS Terra和Aqua影像,利用浮游藻类指数,提取巢湖蓝藻水华时空分布数据.结果显示,巢湖蓝藻水华覆盖面积、暴发频率以及持续时间都在增加,每年最初暴发时间提前.从分布上来看,西巢湖依然严重,中巢湖、东巢湖水华暴发面积较以往大大增加;过去16年内巢湖蓝藻水华暴发频率持续增长,其中2007年最为严重,2008-2010年暴发频率出现缓和,此后又出现增长趋势.这些研究结果有助于掌握蓝藻水华的情况,为巢湖科学治理提供了数据支持. 相似文献
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为探究在三峡水库特殊分层异重流背景下降雨对水华消退的影响,以香溪河为例,对库湾降雨前后水动力、生态环境因子开展连续三维立体跟踪监测。结果表明:降雨对水华的消退作用显著,降雨后香溪河库湾叶绿素a(Chl.a)浓度明显下降。热分层稳定指数(RWCS/H)变化不大,库湾近河口处分层较弱、中上游分层较强的特性并未随此次降雨发生较大变动。受降雨影响,藻类在表层水体聚集程度降低,藻类聚集度指数(MI)、微藻群体平均深度(MRD)下降。库湾流态随降雨发生而变得复杂,库湾水体浊度明显增加,异重流倒灌形式由近表层倒灌向中下层倒灌转变,雨后又逐渐转变为中层倒灌,长江干流水体倒灌进入库湾的影响范围、潜入深度增加。水体水平输移增强,分散下沉的藻类易随水体环流流出库湾,水华消退。雨后库湾入库流量增加,大部分上游来流依旧由上层流向河口,与中层倒灌异重流形成逆时针环流,藻类无法在表层水体稳定生长,库湾Chl.a浓度能在较长时间内保持较低水平,不会再次迅速暴发水华。 相似文献
20.
Rainfall prediction is of vital importance in water resources management. Accurate long-term rainfall prediction remains an open and challenging problem. Machine learning techniques, as an increasingly popular approach, provide an attractive alternative to traditional methods. The main objective of this study was to improve the prediction accuracy of machine learning-based methods for monthly rainfall, and to improve the understanding of the role of large-scale climatic variables and local meteorological variables in rainfall prediction. One regression model autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and five state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, including artificial neural networks, support vector machine, random forest (RF), gradient boosting regression, and dual-stage attention-based recurrent neural network, were implemented for monthly rainfall prediction over 25 stations in the East China region. The results showed that the ML models outperformed ARIMA model, and RF relatively outperformed other models. Local meteorological variables, humidity, and sunshine duration, were the most important predictors in improving prediction accuracy. 4-month lagged Western North Pacific Monsoon had higher importance than other large-scale climatic variables. The overall output of rainfall prediction was scalable and could be readily generalized to other regions. 相似文献