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中国南极冰川学研究10年回顾与展望 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
扼要回顾中国南极冰川学研究历程,当前国际南极冰川学研究背景和发展趋势,并从南极冰盖雪冰物理特征研究,冰盖气候环境记录的现代过程研究以及冰芯研究等方面总结我国南极冰川学研究取得的成果,认为８０年代后期以来,中国南极冰川研究成果显著,尤其是对南冰盖气候环境记录的现代过程研究取得了很大进展,居于国际研究的前沿地位。 相似文献
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冰雷达探测研究南极冰盖的进展与展望 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
南极冰盖是地球上最大的陆缘冰体,其物质收支和稳定性对全球气候变化和海平面升高有重要的影响。冰雷达,或称无线电回波探测,是冰川学家调查南极冰盖冰下特征的主要方法。在过去的50年里,冰雷达被广泛用于测量冰盖厚度、内部构造和冰下地貌,这些参数是计算冰盖体积和物质平衡、重建过去冰雪积累和消融率以及冰盖动力和沉积过程的基础。现在,冰雷达测量覆盖了南极绝大部分区域,极大地提升了人们对南极冰盖和全球系统间相互作用的理解。首先,简要介绍了冰雷达及其技术发展,然后着重评述了冰雷达在探测研究南极冰盖厚度和冰下地形、内部反射层、冰下湖和冰下水系、冰床粗糙度以及冰晶组构上的进展。最后,对未来冰雷达探测研究南极冰盖的前景进行了展望,并给出我国的现状。
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在全球变暖的背景下,南极已成为全球气候变化研究的热点,然而其区域内的观测站点稀疏且缺乏较长的时间序列,限制了人们对南极气候变化机制的分析与理解。Polar WRF作为目前最先进的极地区域气候模型之一,有力弥补了观测资料不足的缺陷,然而模式存在误差,在应用之前有必要对其定量评估。本文利用Polar WRF3.9.1对2004-2013年南极冰盖2m气温、10m风速和地表气压进行了数值模拟,并与28个气象站数据进行了对比分析,结果表明:模式对气温的模拟值在东南极沿岸偏低,在内陆偏高,在南极半岛既存在冷偏差也存在暖偏差,而对风速和气压的模拟整体呈高估。而从均方根误差和平均绝对误差的空间分布来看,模式对气温和气压的模拟结果在东南极沿岸的精度高于内陆和南极半岛,而风速则在内陆的精度要高于沿岸地区。但总体来说模拟效果较为理想,在2004-2013年间气温、风速、气压的模拟值的变化趋势与实测值的变化趋势相同。模式模拟的年平均2m气温和近地面气压在所有站点都通过了α=0.1的显著性检验,季节误差和月误差整体较小,且所有月份的相关系数都分别大于0.90与0.79。模式对10m风速的模拟精度要略低,部分沿岸站点的年平均误差超过了7.5m·s^(-1),但整体而言其在四季和各个月份的相关性均大于0.5且误差小于4.5m·s^(-1)。虽然Polar WRF作为天气模式,但在模拟长时间尺度的气候方面仍然表现较好。 相似文献
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基于ICESat数据的南极冰盖DEM插值方法比较及精度分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
南极数字高程模型(DEM)是从事南极地学和环境变化研究的基础. 内插是建立数字高程模型的重要技术点, 插值方法有多种, 根据不同的适用情况, 不同的插值方法各有优劣. 利用克里格、 距离反权、 三角网剖分、 最小曲率以及移动平均5种插值方法分别建立南极冰盖小范围区域的DEM, 通过抽取部分观测数据作为验证值对各插值方法进行了比较. 结果表明: 克里格插值方法的可靠性最好, 稳定性最高. 然后, 利用克里格插值方法, 基于ICESat测高卫星的GLA12数据建立了南极冰盖的DEM. 由于南极大陆实测数据有限, 缺乏对DEM的检核. 为了分析所建DEM的可靠性, 利用中国南极内陆冰盖考察所采集的GPS实测数据, 对所建立的DEM进行了验证分析. 结果显示, DEM在坡度较缓的南极内陆冰盖区域精度较高, 符合度在3 m以内; 距离卫星轨道越近的区域精度越高, 可达到1 m 以内. 在坡度较大, 高程变化较为显著的区域如沿海地区, 精度较低, 差距最大的点超过40 m. 相似文献
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冰盖数值模拟是一种基于多源观测数据,通过构建并求解冰流动力学方程组,理解冰流运动物理机制以及诊断和预估其演化过程的方法,目前已被广泛应用于冰盖变化研究。本文简要介绍了极地冰盖数值模拟方法,归纳综述了近十余年我国学者在极地冰盖数值模拟方面的研究进展,厘清我国在冰盖数值模拟领域遇到的瓶颈和关键问题。阐述了如何与我国的极地冰盖科考优势区域深度结合,协同多源强化观测和数值模拟,研发和改进冰盖模式,提高冰盖模拟能力,对定量估算极地冰盖的物质平衡及其对未来海平面上升的影响做出实质贡献。通过逐步发展冰盖模式的研究能力,有望将来在冰盖关键动力过程和机制的科学认识上有所突破。 相似文献
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新一代冰流模式乌阿及其在南极埃默里冰架的应用 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
南极冰盖不仅是全球环境变化的指示器, 其消融所产生成的淡水输入也是未来海平面上升的主要不确定性来源。数值模式是诊断冰流动力机制、 评估冰盖物质损耗的重要手段。本文首先介绍了乌阿（冰岛语úa或英语Ua）冰流模式的基本原理, 并利用该模式模拟东南极埃默里冰架的动态变化。乌阿冰流模式基于质量和动量守恒方程的垂直积分, 在自适应不规则三角网格上求解微分方程, 仅用少数参数规则即可构造适应冰流动力特征的网格结构, 有效缩减运算时间。采用当前主流的模式边界数据集, 针对埃默里冰架设计了两个试验。试验一为反演试验, 试验中模式的代价函数在100次迭代后下降三个数量级, 表明模拟的流速与遥感观测吻合（RMSE = 13.35 m·a-1）, 但高频细节仍有待提高; 试验二为预测试验, 测试了模拟冰厚变化率的不确定性, 以自由漂移量接近零为标准选出一组最优模型参数, 最后假设埃默里冰架解体情景开展模拟, 结果表明冰架解体会导致海平面上升（45.36 ± 0.08） mm。随着资料更新迭代, 基于最新发布的南极底部地形数据模拟效果是否提升还有待未来检验。 相似文献
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在国际古气候模拟比较设计设定的边界条件下（其中包括：海洋表面温度，陆地冰盖，CO2浓度，地球轨道参数等变化）。本文汇报了利用中国科学院大气物理研究所的9层全球大气环流格点模式对末次盛冰期气候进行数值模拟的研究成果。结果表明：末次盛冰期全球年平均温度在低5．3℃，降雨量下降9％，其中大陆年平均降水量仅为目前的71％。通过与其他模式模拟结果和重建古气候资料的对比表明，该模式捕捉到了末次盛冰期干，冷的冰期气候特征。在此基础上，我们根据刘东生等的科研成果，初步探讨了青藏高原在末次盛冰期倘若存在一定范围的冰盖，那么该冰盖会对东亚区域古气候模拟结果产生怎样的冲击。 相似文献
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自20世纪70年代初以来，采用无线电回波探测（RES）等技术，在南极冰盖发现了70多个冰下湖泊，最近，随着Vostok冰芯钻孔逼近Vostok湖面，对南极冰盖下伏湖泊的研究提上日程，Vostok湖因其面积大以及有距离湖面最近的钻孔，成为冰下湖群中被优选考虑的“靶子”湖泊，主要研究目标定位于古气候学，原始生命科学两方面，目前工作尚处于技术研制阶段，技术关键点在于研制先进的湖泊沉积物钻探技术，无污染和自动化湖水，湖芯取样技术等，技术上的高难度使得该计划成为一项系统工程。 相似文献
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南极中山站至内陆冰盖330km剖面表面雪样微粒分布特征及其意义 总被引：11，自引：7，他引：4
１９９６～１９９７年,中国首次南极内陆冰盖考察队从中山站深入内陆冰盖３３０ｋｍ,沿途以４ｋｍ的间隔采集表面雪样８４组,对表面雪样的微粒分析表明,该剖面表面雪样中微粒物质的含量随采样点海拔的递升,总体上呈较为明显的递减趋势,在低海拔区域微粒含量变化的波动较大,而在刘海拔区域,微粒含量的变化幅度较小。通过对样品中微粒的粒径分布状况、不同来源微粒所占百分比及其随海拔变化等的进上步研究,可以初步推断,该剖 相似文献
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冰川动力学模式模型进展及研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
冰冻圈是气候系统中的一个重要圈层, 其中冰川又是冰冻圈的重要组成部分, 冰川、 尤其是山地冰川的本构方程和建模一直是冰川动力学的核心任务。首先, 简要回顾冰川模型的研究和发展, 简要介绍了基于Navier-Stokes方程耦合温度场的三维冰川模型。然后, 介绍了冰川建模过程中的常用的静水压力近似、 一阶近似、 浅冰近似等的基本概念, 总结了冰川的动力数值模式建立的主要方法, 对于常用的GLIMMER冰盖模式的物理框架及其应用进行了介绍。最后, 针对目前的简化模型难以准确地描述山地冰川的物理过程及其变化的问题, 提出了一个基于全Navier-Stokes方程的山地冰川模型及其动力框架、 边界条件处理的设想。本文可为建立、 发展冰川及冰架模型, 尤其建立和发展山地冰川模型提供基础知识和参考。 相似文献
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Nina Kirchner Kolumban Hutter Martin Jakobsson Richard Gyllencreutz 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(25-26):3691-3704
The simulation of dynamically coupled ice sheet, ice stream, and ice shelf-systems poses a challenge to most numerical ice sheet models. Here we review present ice sheet model limitations targeting a broader audience within Earth Sciences, also those with no specific background in numerical modeling, in order to facilitate cross-disciplinary communication between especially paleoglaciologists, marine and terrestrial geologists, and numerical modelers. The ‘zero order’ (Shallow Ice Approximation, SIA)-, ‘higher order’-, and ‘full Stokes’ ice sheet models are described conceptually and complemented by an outline of their derivations. We demonstrate that higher order models are required to simulate coupled ice sheet-ice shelf and ice sheet-ice stream systems, in particular if the results are aimed to complement spatial ice flow reconstructions based on higher resolution geological and geophysical data. The zero order SIA model limitations in capturing ice stream behavior are here illustrated by conceptual simulations of a glaciation on Svalbard. The limitations are obvious from the equations comprising a zero order model. However, under certain circumstances, simulation results may falsely give the impression that ice streams indeed are simulated with a zero order SIA model. 相似文献
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GLIMMER 3D陆冰模式及其在青藏高原的应用 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
GLI MMER(Genie Land Ice Model with Multipy-Enabled Regions)是英国Edinburgh大学开发的3D热动力陆冰模式,由运动方程、连续方程、热力学方程构成其主要物理框架,能与全球气候模式进行耦合,适用于冰川过程机理研究和冰川数值预报.介绍了3D GLI MMER陆冰模式,包括它的动力框架、边界条件、数值积分方法和外部强迫.此外,以青藏高原现代冰川为例进行数值试验,考察模式对冰川的模拟能力.结果表明:3D GLI MMER模式可以较好地模拟青藏高原冰川,所模拟的冰川分布、冰厚、冰温和冰速与实际观测比较接近. 相似文献
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The influence of glacier hydrology on the time-dependent morphology and flow behaviour of the late Weichselian Scandinavian ice sheet is explored using a simple one-dimensional ice sheet model. The model is driven by orbitally induced radiation variations, ice-albedo feedback and eustatic sea-level change. The influence of hydrology is most marked during deglaciation and on the southern side of the ice sheet, where a marginal zone of rapid sliding, thin ice and low surface slopes develops. Such a zone is absent when hydrology is omitted from the model, and its formation results in earlier and more rapid deglaciation than occurs in the no-hydrology model. The final advance to the glacial maximum position results from an increase in the rate of basal sliding as climate warms after 23000 yr BP. Channelised subglacial drainage develops only episodically, and is associated with relatively low meltwater discharges and high hydraulic gradients. The predominance of iceberg calving as an ablation mechanism on the northern side of the ice sheet restricts the occurrence of surface melting. Lack of meltwater penetration to the glacier bed in this area means that ice flow is predominantly by internal deformation and the ice sheet adopts a classical parabolic surface profile. 相似文献
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The last ice sheet over the British Isles, together with other mid-latitude Pleistocene ice sheets, and in contrast to the modern ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, had a relatively low profile, low summit elevation and extensive, elongated lobes at its margin. A thermo-mechanically coupled numerical ice sheet model, driven by a proxy climate, has been used to explore the properties that would have permitted these characteristics to develop. The approach, the key to quantitative palaeoglaciology, is to determine the boundary conditions that permit the simulated ice sheet to mimic the evolution of the real ice sheet through the last glacial cycle. Simulations show how a British ice sheet may have been confluent with a Scandinavian ice sheet during some parts of its history and how unforced periodic and asynchronous oscillations could occur in different parts of its margins. Marginal lobes are a reflection of streaming within the ice sheet. Such streams can be ephemeral, dynamic streams located because of ice sheet properties, or fixed streams whose location is determined by bed properties. The simulations that best satisfy constraints of extent, elevation and relative sea levels are those with major fixed streams that strongly draw down the ice sheet surface. In these, the core upland areas of the ice sheet were cold based at the Last Glacial Maximum, basal streaming velocities were between 500 and 1000 ma−1 compared with surface velocities of 10–50 ma−1 in inter-stream zones, shear stresses were as low as 15–25 kPa in streams compared with 70–110 kPa in upland areas and 60–84% of the ice flux was delivered to the margin via streams. 相似文献
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Nina Kirchner Ralf Greve Arjen P. Stroeven Jakob Heyman 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(1-2):248-267
The Tibetan Plateau is a topographic feature of extraordinary dimension and has an important impact on regional and global climate. However, the glacial history of the Tibetan Plateau is more poorly constrained than that of most other formerly glaciated regions such as in North America and Eurasia. On the basis of some field evidence it has been hypothesized that the Tibetan Plateau was covered by an ice sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Abundant field- and chronological evidence for a predominance of local valley glaciation during the past 300,000 calendar years (that is, 300 ka), coupled to an absence of glacial landforms and sediments in extensive areas of the plateau, now refute this concept. This, furthermore, calls into question previous ice sheet modeling attempts which generally arrive at ice volumes considerably larger than allowed for by field evidence. Surprisingly, the robustness of such numerical ice sheet model results has not been widely queried, despite potentially important climate ramifications. We simulated the growth and decay of ice on the Tibetan Plateau during the last 125 ka in response to a large ensemble of climate forcings (90 members) derived from Global Circulation Models (GCMs), using a similar 3D thermomechanical ice sheet model as employed in previous studies. The numerical results include as extreme end members as an ice-free Tibetan Plateau and a plateau-scale ice sheet comparable, in volume, to the contemporary Greenland ice sheet. We further demonstrate that numerical simulations that acceptably conform to published reconstructions of Quaternary ice extent on the Tibetan Plateau cannot be achieved with the employed stand-alone ice sheet model when merely forced by paleoclimates derived from currently available GCMs. Progress is, however, expected if future investigations employ ice sheet models with higher resolution, bidirectional ice sheet-atmosphere feedbacks, improved treatment of the surface mass balance, and regional climate data and climate reconstructions. 相似文献
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全球大洋深海有孔虫碳同位素(δ13C)记录中广泛发现40万年周期,这一周期可能与偏心率长周期的轨道驱动有关.1.6 Ma以来,δ13C的这一长周期拉长到50万年,且重值期不再与偏心率低值对应.目前对δ13C 40万年周期的成因及其周期拉长的机制还不明确.这里使用了包含9个箱体的箱式模型,用于研究热带过程与冰盖相互作用及其对大洋碳循环的影响.模拟结果显示当北半球高纬海区海冰迅速增大时冰盖迅速融化,进入冰消期,而当海冰快速消失后,冰盖则重新缓慢增长.冰盖变化具有冰期长,间冰期短的非对称形态.在季节性太阳辐射量的驱动下冰盖变化具有10万年冰期-间冰期旋回.当冰盖融化速率受北半球高纬夏季太阳辐射量控制时,冰盖变化的岁差周期明显加强,相位与地质记录一致,说明轨道驱动可以通过非线性相位锁定机制使冰盖变化与其在相位上保持一致.海冰的阻隔效应使大气中CO2在冰消期时增多.冰期时大洋环流减弱使大气中CO2逐渐减少.当模型只有ETP驱动的风化作用而不考虑冰盖变化时,模拟的δ13C记录显示极强的40万年周期,体现了大洋碳储库对热带风化过程的响应.当同时考虑冰盖变化和风化作用时,模拟的δ13C结果中40万年周期减弱而10万年周期加强,并且40万年周期上碳储库与偏心率的相位与不考虑冰盖变化时的相位也存在差异,反映了冰盖变化引起的洋流改组压制了大洋碳循环对热带过程的响应. 相似文献
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C. J. Van der Veen 《Quaternary Research》1985,24(3):257-267
A numerical model was designed to study the stability of a marine ice sheet, and used to do some basic experiments. The ice-shelf/ice-sheet interaction enters through the flow law in which the longitudinal stress is also taken into account. Instead of applying the model to some (measured) profile and showing that this is unstable (as is common practice in other studies), an attempt is made to simulate a whole cycle of growth and retreat of a marine ice sheet, although none of the model sheets is particularly sensitive to changes in environmental conditions. The question as to what might happen to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the near future when a climatic warming can be expecied as a result of the CO2 effect, seems to be open for discussion again. From the results presented in this paper one can infer that a collapse, caused by increased melting on the ice shelves, is not very likely. 相似文献