共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
A. Costa F. Dell’Erba M. A. Di Vito R. Isaia G. Macedonio G. Orsi T. Pfeiffer 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2009,71(3):259-273
Tephra fallout associated with renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera is a serious threat to the Neapolitan area.
In order to assess the hazards related with tephra loading, we have considered three different eruption scenarios representative
of past activity: a high-magnitude event similar to the 4.1 ka Agnano-Monte Spina eruption, a medium-magnitude event, similar
to the ∼3.8 ka Astroni 6 eruption, and a low-magnitude event similar to the Averno 2 eruption. The fallout deposits were reconstructed
using the HAZMAP computational model, which is based on a semi-analytical solution of the two-dimensional advection–diffusion–sedimentation
equation for volcanic tephra. The input parameters into the model, such as total erupted mass, eruption column height, and
bulk grain-size and components distribution, were obtained by best-fitting field data. We carried out tens of thousands simulations
using a statistical set of wind profiles, obtained from NOAA re-analysis. Probability maps, relative to the considered scenarios,
were constructed for several tephra loads, such as 200, 300 and 400 kg/m2. These provide a hazard assessment for roof collapses due to tephra loading that can be used for risk mitigation plans in
the area. 相似文献
2.
J. Marti R. Spence E. Calogero A. Ordoñez A. Felpeto P. Baxter 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008
Principal and subsidiary building structure characteristics and their distribution have been inventoried in Icod, Tenerife (Canary Islands) and used to evaluate the vulnerability of individual buildings to three volcanic hazards: tephra fallout, volcanogenic earthquakes and pyroclastic flows. The procedures described in this paper represent a methodological framework for a comprehensive survey of all the buildings at risk in the area around the Teide volcano in Tenerife. Such a methodology would need to be implemented for the completion of a comprehensive risk assessment for the populations under threat of explosive eruptions in this area. The information presented in the paper is a sample of the necessary data required for the impact estimation and risk assessment exercises that would need to be carried out by emergency managers, local authorities and those responsible for recovery and repair in the event of a volcanic eruption. The data shows there are micro variations in building stock characteristics that would influence the likely impact of an eruption in the area. As an example of the use of this methodology for vulnerability assessment, we have applied a deterministic simulation model of a volcanic eruption from Teide volcano and its associated ash fallout which, when combined with the vulnerability data collected, allows us to obtain the vulnerability map of the studied area. This map is obtained by performing spatial analysis with a Geographical Information System (GIS). This vulnerability analysis is included in the framework of an automatic information system specifically developed for hazard assessment and risk management on Tenerife, but which can be also applied to other volcanic areas. The work presented is part of the EU-funded EXPLORIS project (Explosive Eruption Risk and Decision Support for EU Populations Threatened by Volcanoes, EVR1-2001-00047). 相似文献
3.
Volcanic eruptions typically produce a number of hazards, and many regions are at risk from more than one volcano or volcanic field. So that detailed risk assessments can be carried out, it is necessary to rank potential volcanic hazards and events in terms of risk. As it is often difficult to make accurate predictions regarding the characteristics of future eruptions, a method for ranking hazards and events has been developed that does not rely on precise values. Risk is calculated individually for each hazard from each source as the product of likelihood, extent and effect, based on the parameters order of magnitude. So that multiple events and outcomes can be considered, risk is further multiplied by the relative probability of the event occurring (probabilitye) and the relative importance of the outcome (importanceo). By adding the values obtained, total risk is calculated and a ranking can be carried out.This method was used to rank volcanic hazards and events that may impact the Auckland Region, New Zealand. Auckland is at risk from the Auckland volcanic field, Okataina volcanic centre, Taupo volcano, Tuhua volcano, Tongariro volcanic centre, and Mt. Taranaki volcano. Relative probabilities were determined for each event, with the highest given to Mt. Taranaki. Hazards considered were, for local events: tephra fall, scoria fall and ballistic impacts, lava flow, base surge and associated shock waves, tsunami, volcanic gases and acid rain, earthquakes and ground deformation, mudflows and mudfills, lightning and flooding; and for distal events: tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, poisonous gases and acid rain, mudflows and mudfills, climate variations and earthquakes. Hazards from each source were assigned values for likelihood, with the largest for tephra fall from all sources, earthquakes and ground deformation, lava flows, scoria fall and base surge for an Auckland eruption on land, and earthquakes and ground deformation from an Auckland eruption in the ocean. The largest values for extent were for tephra fall and climate variation from each of the distal centres. However, these parameters do not give a true indication of risk. In a companion paper the effect of each hazard is fully investigated and the risk ranking completed. 相似文献
4.
P.W. Webley B.J.B. Stunder K.G. Dean 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2009,186(1-2):108
Ash clouds are one of the major hazards that result from volcanic eruptions. Once an eruption is reported, volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD) models are used to forecast the location of the ash cloud. These models require source parameters to describe the ash column for initialization. These parameters include: eruption cloud height and vertical distribution, particle size distribution, and start and end time of the eruption. Further, if downwind concentrations are needed, the eruption mass rate and/or volume of ash need to be known. Upon notification of an eruption, few constraints are typically available on many of these source parameters. Recently, scientists have defined classes of eruption types, each with a set of pre-defined eruption source parameters (ESP). We analyze the August 18, 1992 eruption of the Crater Peak vent at Mount Spurr, Alaska, which is the example case for the Medium Silicic eruption type. We have evaluated the sensitivity of two of the ESP – the grain size distribution (GSD) and the vertical distribution of ash – on the modeled ash cloud. HYSPLIT and Puff VATD models are used to simulate the ash clouds from the different sets of source parameters. We use satellite data, processed through the reverse absorption method, as reference for computing statistics that describe the modeled-to-observed comparison. With the grain size distribution, the three options chosen, (1) an estimated distribution based on past eruption studies, (2) a distribution with finer particles and (3) the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration HYSPLIT GSD, have little effect on the modeled ash cloud. For the initial vertical distribution, both linear (uniform concentration throughout the vertical column) and umbrella shapes were chosen. For HYSPLIT, the defined umbrella distribution (no ash below the umbrella), apparently underestimates the lower altitude portions of the ash cloud and as a result has a worse agreement with the satellite detected ash cloud compared to that with the linear vertical distribution for this particular eruption. The Puff model, with a Poisson function to represent the umbrella cloud, gave similar results as for a linear distribution, both having reasonable agreement with the satellite detected cloud. Further sensitivity studies of this eruption, as well as studies using the other source parameters, are needed. 相似文献
5.
In a companion paper, a methodology for ranking volcanic hazards and events in terms of risk was presented, and the likelihood and extent of potential hazards in the Auckland Region, New Zealand investigated. In this paper, the effects of each hazard are considered and the risk ranking completed. Values for effect are proportions of total loss and, as with likelihood and extent, are based on order of magnitude.Two outcomes were considered – building damage and loss of human life. In terms of building damage, tephra produces the highest risk by an order of magnitude, followed by lava flows and base surge. For loss of human life, risk from base surge is highest. The risks from pyroclastic flows and tsunami are an order of magnitude smaller. When combined, tephra fall followed by base surge produces the highest risk. The risks from lava flows and pyroclastic flows are an order of magnitude smaller. For building damage, the risk from Mt. Taranaki volcano, 280 km from the Auckland CBD, is largest, followed by Okataina volcanic centre, an Auckland volcanic field eruption centred on land, then Tongariro volcanic centre. In terms of human loss, the greatest risk is from an Auckland eruption centred on land. The risks from an Auckland eruption centred in the ocean, Okataina volcanic centre, and Taupo volcano are more than an order of magnitude smaller. When combined, the risk from Mt. Taranaki remains highest, followed by an Auckland eruption centred on land. The next largest risks are from the Okataina and Tongariro volcanic centres, followed by Taupo volcano.Three alternative situations were investigated. As multiple eruptions may occur from the Auckland volcanic field, it was assumed that a local event would involve two eruptions. This increased risk of a local eruption occurring on land so that it was equal to that of an eruption from Mt. Taranaki. It is possible that a future eruption may be of a similar, or larger size, to the previous Rangitoto eruption. Risk was re-calculated for local eruptions based on the extent of hazards from Rangitoto. This increased the risk of lava flow to greater than that of base surge, and the risk from an Auckland land eruption became greatest. The relative probabilities used for Mt. Taranaki volcano and the Auckland volcanic field may only be minimum values. When the probability of these occurring was increased by 50%, there was no change in either ranking.Editorial responsibility: J. S. Gilbert 相似文献
6.
Susanna Jenkins Christina Magill John McAneney Russell Blong 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2012,74(7):1699-1712
Volcanic ash is one of the farthest-reaching volcanic hazards and ash produced by large magnitude explosive eruptions has the potential to affect communities over thousands of kilometres. Quantifying the hazard from ash fall is problematic, in part because of data limitations that make eruption characteristics uncertain but also because, given an eruption, the distribution of ash is then controlled by time and altitude-varying wind conditions. Any one location may potentially be affected by ash falls from one, or a number of, volcanoes so that volcano-specific studies may not fully capture the ash fall hazard for communities in volcanically active areas. In an attempt to deal with these uncertainties, this paper outlines a probabilistic framework for assessing ash fall hazard on a regional scale. The methodology employs stochastic simulation techniques and is based upon generic principles that could be applied to any area, but is here applied to the Asia-Pacific region. Average recurrence intervals for eruptions greater than or equal to Volcanic Explosivity Index 4 were established for 190 volcanoes in the region, based upon the eruption history of each volcano and, where data were lacking, the averaged eruptive behaviour of global analogous volcanoes. Eruption histories are drawn from the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program catalogue of Holocene events and unpublished data, with global analogues taken from volcanoes of the same type category: Caldera, Large Cone, Shield, Lava dome or Small Cone. Simulated are 190,000 plausible eruption scenarios, with ash dispersal for each determined using an advection–diffusion model and local wind conditions. Key uncertainties are described by probability distributions. Modelled results include the annual probability of exceeding given ash thicknesses, summed over all eruption scenarios and volcanoes. A companion paper describes the results obtained for the Asia-Pacific region 相似文献
7.
Mark Bebbington Shane J. Cronin Ian Chapman Michael B. Turner 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008
Quantifying the potential ash fall hazards from re-awakening volcanoes is a topic of great interest. While methods for calculating the probability of eruptions, and for numerical simulation of tephra dispersal and fallout exist, event records at most volcanoes that re-awaken sporadically on decadal to millennial cycles are inadequate to develop rigorous forecasts of occurrence, much less eruptive volume. Here we demonstrate a method by which eruption records from radiocarbon-dated sediment cores can be used to derive forecasting models for ash fall impacts on electrical infrastructure. Our method is illustrated by an example from the Taranaki region of New Zealand. Radiocarbon dates, expressed as years before present (B.P.), are used to define an age-depth model, classifying eruption ages (with associated errors) for a circa 1500–10 500 year B.P. record at Mt. Taranaki (New Zealand). In addition, data describing the youngest 1500 years of eruption activity is obtained from directly dated proximal deposits. Absence of trend and apparent independence in eruption intervals is consistent with a renewal model using a mix of Weibulls distributions, which was used to generate probabilistic forecasts of eruption recurrence. After establishing that interval length and tephra thickness were independent in the record, a thickness–volume relationship (from [Rhoades, D.A., Dowrick, D.J., Wilson, C.J.N., 2002. Volcanic hazard in New Zealand: Scaling and attenuation relations for tephra fall deposits from Taupo volcano. Nat. Hazards, 26:147–174]) was inverted to provide a frequency–volume relationship for eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation of the thickness–volume relationship was then used to produce probable ash fall thicknesses at any chosen site. Several critical electrical infrastructure sites in the Taranaki Region were analysed. This region, being the only gas and condensate-producing area in New Zealand, is of national economic importance, with activities in and around the area depending on uninterrupted power supplies. Forecasts of critical ash thicknesses (1 mm wet and 2 mm dry) that may cause short-circuiting, surges or power shutdowns in substations show that the annual probabilities of serious impact are between ~ 0.5% and 27% over a 50 year period. It was also found that while large eruptions with high ash plumes tend to affect “expected” areas in relation to prevailing winds, the direction impacts of small ash falls are far less predictable. In the Taranaki case study, areas out of normal downwind directions, but close to the volcano, have probabilities of impact for critical thicknesses of 1–2 mm of around half to 60% of those in downwind directions and therefore should not be overlooked in hazard analysis. Through this method we are able to definitively show that the potential ash fall hazard to electrical infrastructure in this area is low in comparison to other natural threats, and provide a quantitative measure for use in risk analysis and budget prioritisation for hazard mitigation measures. 相似文献
8.
Plinian plumes erupt with a bulk density greater than that of air, and depend upon air entrainment during their gas-thrust phase to become buoyant; if entrainment is insufficient, the column collapses into a potentially deadly pyroclastic flow. This study shows that strombolian ash plumes can be erupted in an initially buoyant state due to their extremely high initial gas content, and in such cases are thus impervious to column collapse. The high gas content is a consequence of decoupled gas rise in the conduit, in which particles are ultimately incidental. The relations between conduit gas flow, eruption style and plume density are explored here for strombolian scenarios and contrasted with conventional wisdom derived from plinian eruptions. Considering the inherent relation between gas content and initial plume density together with detailed measurements of plume velocities can help unravel ambiguities surrounding conduit processes, eruption styles and hazards at poorly understood volcanoes. Analysis of plume dynamics at Santiaguito volcano, Guatemala adds further support for a model involving decoupled gas rise in the conduit. 相似文献
9.
10.
长白山天池火山减灾对策初探 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
国内外专家学者认为，长白山天池火山是一座具潜在灾害性喷发危险的活火山，因此制定火山减灾对策理应提到议事日程。针对天池火山研究现状和火山灾害特点，制定了火山活动各阶段的减灾对策。中长期阶段应加强火山监测与研究和火山知识宣传工作，采取必要的工程防护措施，重大工程进行火山安全性评价，制定火山喷发应急预案；短期阶段请求国际火山流动监测台网给予支援；临近喷发阶段重点是有组织的撤离；喷发及其后阶段应及时救灾抢险，对火山喷发趋势进行科学判定，合理地重建家园。 相似文献
11.
P.I. Tokarev 《Journal of Geodynamics》1985,3(3-4)
During the large explosions of the Bezymianny (1956), Shiveluch (1964) and Mount St. Helens (1980) volcanoes, 4.8·1012, 3.0·1012 and 8.2·1012 kg of resurgent and magmatic material were ejected respectively. The eruptions were preceded and accompanied by significant crustal deformations and by a great number of volcanic earthquakes. In all three cases, earthquakes with an energy of E = 109 J occurred 8–11 days before the eruption; their foci were at a distance of less than 5 km from the floor of the active crater and the power of earthquake swarms increased continuously and monotonously until the beginning of the eruption. The data obtained on deformations, earthquakes and volcanic activity may be used for the prediction of the place, time, energy and hazards of large explosions of andesitic volcanoes. 相似文献
12.
13.
A statistical assessment on the stochastic relationship between biomarker concentrations and environmental exposures 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Biological monitoring has gradually developed into a powerful tool in the identification and quantification of exposures to occupational and/or environmental hazards in environmental and occupational health studies. Aggregate individual exposure to pollutants and evidence for exploring dose-response relationship in the human bodies can be assessed through biomarker measurements. The existence of inter-individual differences among a study population, however, often hampers the relationship assessment between exposure and the biomarker. In this paper, a statistical random effects model identified from a simplified one-compartment pharmacokinetic model is applied to establish the dynamic relationship between a biomarker and its corresponding external exposure. This model avoids the complex parameter estimation problem encountered using a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model, and incorporates inter-individual variations often ignored in the usual regression approach. In addition, the relevant parameters for the generic kinetic process can be estimated directly. As a guideline for preliminary sampling strategy, tables of required sample sizes and the number of repeated measurements to achieve the desired statistical power and test efficiency are given. The currently established biological exposure indices (BEIs) for benzene and methyl chloroform are employed to illustrate the impact of inter- individual variations on the percentages of protection for workers exposed to the threshold limit value (TLV) of the corresponding chemical.This research was partially supported by the Environmental Protection Agency of Taiwan (Contract No. EPA-88-E102–03–003). 相似文献
14.
More than 40 late Cenozoic monogenetic volcanoes formed a volcanic belt striking NNW from Keluo, through Wudalianchi to Erkeshan in NE China. These volcanoes belong to a unified volcano system, namely Wudalianchi volcanic belt(WVB for short). Based on the volcanic evolution history and the nature of monogenetic volcanic system, we estimate that the volcanic system of WVB is still active and has the potential to erupt again. Hence, this paper studied the temporal-spatial distribution and volcanic eruption types to evaluate the possible eruption hazard types and areas of influence in the future.
Volcanic field characteristics and K-Ar radiometric data suggest two episodes of volcanism in the WVB, the Pliocene to early Pleistocene volcanism(4.59~1.00MaBP)and the middle Pleistocene to Holocene volcanism(0.79Ma to now). The early episode volcanoes are distributed only in the north of WVB(mainly in Keluo volcanic field), featured by effusive eruption, and mainly formed monogenetic shield, whose base diameter is large and slope is gentle. However, the late episode eruptions occurred over the entire WVB. The explosive eruption in this stage formed numerous relatively intact scoria cones of explosive origin. Meanwhile the effusive eruption formed widely distributed lava flows.
Both effusive eruption and explosive eruption are common in WVB. The effusive eruption formed monogenetic shields and lava flows. The resulting pahoehoe lava, aa lava and block lava appeared in WVB. There are three end-member types of explosive eruption driven by magmatic volatile. Violent Strombolian eruption has the highest degree of fragmentation and mass flux, characterized by eruption column. Strombolian eruption has the high degree of fragmentation, but low mass flux, featured by pulse eruption. Hawaiian eruption has low degree of fragmentation, but high in mass flux, generating large scoria cones. In addition, this paper for the first time found phreatomagmatic eruption in WVB, which formed tuff cone. Transitional eruptions are also common in WVB, which have certain characteristics among the end-member eruption types. Besides, certain volcanoes displayed multiple explosive eruption types during the whole eruption span.
According to the volcanic temporal-spatial distribution and eruption characteristics in WVB, the potential volcanic hazards in future are constrained. It appears that the violent Strombolian and Strombolian eruption will not have significant impact on aviation safety in the vertical direction. In the radial direction, the ejected volcanic bomb can reach as far as 1km from the vents and the fallout tephra may disperse downwind over a distance ranging from 1~10km. The major hazard of Hawaiian eruption and effusive eruption comes from lava flow, and its migration distance may reach 3.0~13.5km for pahoehoe lava and 2.9~14.9km for aa lava. The base surge in phreatomagmatic eruption can reach a velocity of 200~400m/s, and the migration distance is around 10km. This is a big threat that people should pay more attention to and take precautions in advance. Besides, it is necessary to strengthen the real-time observation of the volcanoes in the WVB, especially those formed in the late episode as well as near the active fault. 相似文献
15.
长白山天池全新世以来的火山喷发与灾害风险初探 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
概述了长白山天池火山全新世以来的喷发及其构造活动,其中喷发物以玄武质、碱流质为主,规模大。文中着重探讨了天池火山的风险性和未来的火山灾害。可为制定火山灾害对策提供科学依据。 相似文献
16.
A. Neri W.P. Aspinall R. Cioni A. Bertagnini P.J. Baxter G. Zuccaro D. Andronico S. Barsotti P.D. Cole T. Esposti Ongaro T.K. Hincks G. Macedonio P. Papale M. Rosi R. Santacroce G. Woo 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008
Probabilistic characterizations of possible future eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius volcano are elaborated and organized within a risk-based framework. In the EXPLORIS project, a wide variety of topics relating to this basic problem have been pursued: updates of historical data, reinterpretation of previous geological field data and the collection of new fieldwork results, the development of novel numerical modelling codes and of risk assessment techniques have all been completed. To achieve coherence, many diverse strands of evidence had to be unified within a formalised structure, and linked together by expert knowledge. For this purpose, a Vesuvius ‘Event Tree’ (ET) was created to summarise in a numerical-graphical form, at different levels of detail, all the relative likelihoods relating to the genesis and style of eruption, development and nature of volcanic hazards, and the probabilities of occurrence of different volcanic risks in the next eruption crisis. The Event Tree formulation provides a logical pathway connecting generic probabilistic hazard assessment to quantitative risk evaluation. In order to achieve a complete parameterization for this all-inclusive approach, exhaustive hazard and risk models were needed, quantified with comprehensive uncertainty distributions for all factors involved, rather than simple ‘best-estimate’ or nominal values. Thus, a structured expert elicitation procedure was implemented to complement more traditional data analysis and interpretative approaches. The structure of the Vesuvius Event Tree is presented, and some of the data analysis findings and elicitation outcomes that have provided initial indicative probability distributions to be associated with each of its branches are summarized. The Event Tree extends from initiating volcanic eruption events and hazards right through to human impact and infrastructure consequences, with the complete tree and its parameterisation forming a quantitative synoptic framework for comprehensive hazard evaluation and mapping of risk impacts. The organization of the Event Tree allows easy updating, as and when new information becomes available. 相似文献
17.
Perceptions of hazard and risk on Santorini 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Dale Dominey-Howes Despina Minos-Minopoulos 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2004,137(4):4
Santorini, Greece is a major explosive volcano. The Santorini volcanic complex is composed of two active volcanoes—Nea Kameni and Mt. Columbo. Holocene eruptions have generated a variety of processes and deposits and eruption mechanisms pose significant hazards of various types. It has been recognized that, for major European volcanoes, few studies have focused on the social aspects of volcanic activity and little work has been conducted on public perceptions of hazard, risk and vulnerability. Such assessments are an important element of establishing public education programmes and developing volcano disaster management plans. We investigate perceptions of volcanic hazards on Santorini. We find that most residents know that Nea Kameni is active, but only 60% know that Mt. Columbo is active. Forty percent of residents fear that negative impacts on tourism will have the greatest effect on their community. In the event of an eruption, 43% of residents would try to evacuate the island by plane/ferry. Residents aged >50 have retained a memory of the effects of the last eruption at the island, whereas younger residents have no such knowledge. We find that dignitaries and municipal officers (those responsible for planning and managing disaster response) are informed about the history, hazards and effects of the volcanoes. However, there is no “emergency plan” for the island and there is confusion between various departments (Civil Defense, Fire, Police, etc.) about the emergency decision-making process. The resident population of Santorini is at high risk from the hazards associated with a future eruption. 相似文献
18.
Mount St. Helens a decade after the 1980 eruptions: magmatic models,chemical cycles,and a revised hazards assessment 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
John S Pallister Richard P Hoblitt Dwight R Crandell Donal R Mullineaux 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1992,54(2):126-146
Available geophysical and geologic data provide a simplified model of the current magmatic plumbing system of Mount St. Helens (MSH). This model and new geochemical data are the basis for the revised hazards assessment presented here. The assessment is weighted by the style of eruptions and the chemistry of magmas erupted during the past 500 years, the interval for which the most detailed stratigraphic and geochemical data are available. This interval includes the Kalama (A. D. 1480–1770s?), Goat Rocks (A.D. 1800–1857), and current eruptive periods. In each of these periods, silica content decreased, then increased. The Kalama is a large amplitude chemical cycle (SiO2: 57%–67%), produced by mixing of arc dacite, which is depleted in high field-strength and incompatible elements, with enriched (OIB-like) basalt. The Goat Rocks and current cycles are of small amplitude (SiO2: 61%–64% and 62%–65%) and are related to the fluid dynamics of magma withdrawal from a zoned reservoir. The cyclic behavior is used to forecast future activity. The 1980–1986 chemical cycle, and consequently the current eruptive period, appears to be virtually complete. This inference is supported by the progressively decreasing volumes and volatile contents of magma erupted since 1980, both changes that suggest a decreasing potential for a major explosive eruption in the near future. However, recent changes in seismicity and a series of small gas-release explosions (beginning in late 1989 and accompanied by eruption of a minor fraction of relatively low-silica tephra on 6 January and 5 November 1990) suggest that the current eruptive period may continue to produce small explosions and that a small amount of magma may still be present within the conduit. The gas-release explosions occur without warning and pose a continuing hazard, especially in the crater area. An eruption as large or larger than that of 18 May 1980 (0.5 km3 dense-rock equivalent) probably will occur only if magma rises from an inferred deep (7 km), relative large (5–7 km3) reservoir. A conservative approach to hazard assessment is to assume that this deep magma is rich in volatiles and capable of erupting explosively to produce voluminous fall deposits and pyroclastic flows. Warning of such an eruption is expectable, however, because magma ascent would probably be accompanied by shallow seismicity that could be detected by the existing seismic-monitoring system. A future large-volume eruption (0.1 km3) is virtually certain; the eruptive history of the past 500 years indicates the probability of a large explosive eruption is at least 1% annually. Intervals between large eruptions at Mount St. Helens have varied widely; consequently, we cannot confidently forecast whether the next large eruption will be years decades, or farther in the future. However, we can forecast the types of hazards, and the areas that will be most affected by future large-volume eruptions, as well as hazards associated with the approaching end of the current eruptive period. 相似文献
19.
Roberto Sulpizio Arnau Folch Antonio Costa Chiara Scaini Pierfrancesco Dellino 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2012,74(9):2205-2218
Long-range dispersal of volcanic ash can disrupt civil aviation over large areas, as occurred during the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallaj?kull volcano in Iceland. Here we assess the hazard for civil aviation posed by volcanic ash from a potential violent Strombolian eruption of Somma-Vesuvius, the most likely scenario if eruptive activity resumed at this volcano. A Somma-Vesuvius eruption is of concern for two main reasons: (1) there is a high probability (38?%) that the eruption will be violent Strombolian, as this activity has been common in the most recent period of activity (between AD 1631 and 1944); and (2) violent Strombolian eruptions typically last longer than higher-magnitude events (from 3 to 7?days for the climactic phases) and, consequently, are likely to cause prolonged air traffic disruption (even at large distances if a substantial amount of fine ash is produced such as is typical during Vesuvius eruptions). We compute probabilistic hazard maps for airborne ash concentration at relevant flight levels using the FALL3D ash dispersal model and a statistically representative set of meteorological conditions. Probabilistic hazard maps are computed for two different ash concentration thresholds, 2 and 0.2?mg/m3, which correspond, respectively, to the no-fly and enhanced procedure conditions defined in Europe during the Eyjafjallaj?kull eruption. The seasonal influence of ash dispersal is also analysed by computing seasonal maps. We define the persistence of ash in the atmosphere as the time that a concentration threshold is exceeded divided by the total duration of the eruption (here the eruption phase producing a sustained eruption column). The maps of averaged persistence give additional information on the expected duration of the conditions leading to flight disruption at a given location. We assess the impact that a violent Strombolian eruption would have on the main airports and aerial corridors of the Central Mediterranean area, and this assessment can help those who devise procedures to minimise the impact of these long-lasting low-intensity volcanic events on civil aviation. 相似文献
20.
Susan J. Leadbetter Matthew C. Hort 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2011,199(3-4):230-241
Ash produced by a volcanic eruption on Iceland can be hazardous for both the transatlantic flight paths and European airports and airspace. In order to begin to quantify the risk to aircraft, this study explored the probability of ash from a short explosive eruption of Hekla Volcano (63.98°N, 19.7°W) reaching European airspace. Transport, dispersion and deposition of the ash cloud from a three hour ‘explosive’ eruption with an initial plume height of 12 km was simulated using the Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment, NAME, the model used operationally by the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre. Eruptions were simulated over a six year period, from 2003 until 2008, and ash clouds were tracked for four days following each eruption.Results showed that a rapid spread of volcanic ash is possible, with all countries in Europe facing the possibility of an airborne ash concentration exceeding International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) limits within 24 h of an eruption. An additional high impact, low probability event which could occur is the southward spread of the ash cloud which would block transatlantic flights approaching and leaving Europe. Probabilities of significant concentrations of ash are highest to the east of Iceland, with probabilities exceeding 20% in most countries north of 50°N. Deposition probabilities were highest at Scottish and Scandinavian airports. There is some seasonal variability in the probabilities; ash is more likely to reach southern Europe in winter when the mean winds across the continent are northerly. Ash concentrations usually remain higher for longer during summer when the mean wind speeds are lower. 相似文献