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1.
Principal and subsidiary building structure characteristics and their distribution have been inventoried in Icod, Tenerife (Canary Islands) and used to evaluate the vulnerability of individual buildings to three volcanic hazards: tephra fallout, volcanogenic earthquakes and pyroclastic flows. The procedures described in this paper represent a methodological framework for a comprehensive survey of all the buildings at risk in the area around the Teide volcano in Tenerife. Such a methodology would need to be implemented for the completion of a comprehensive risk assessment for the populations under threat of explosive eruptions in this area. The information presented in the paper is a sample of the necessary data required for the impact estimation and risk assessment exercises that would need to be carried out by emergency managers, local authorities and those responsible for recovery and repair in the event of a volcanic eruption. The data shows there are micro variations in building stock characteristics that would influence the likely impact of an eruption in the area. As an example of the use of this methodology for vulnerability assessment, we have applied a deterministic simulation model of a volcanic eruption from Teide volcano and its associated ash fallout which, when combined with the vulnerability data collected, allows us to obtain the vulnerability map of the studied area. This map is obtained by performing spatial analysis with a Geographical Information System (GIS). This vulnerability analysis is included in the framework of an automatic information system specifically developed for hazard assessment and risk management on Tenerife, but which can be also applied to other volcanic areas. The work presented is part of the EU-funded EXPLORIS project (Explosive Eruption Risk and Decision Support for EU Populations Threatened by Volcanoes, EVR1-2001-00047).  相似文献   

2.
Perceptions of hazard and risk on Santorini   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Santorini, Greece is a major explosive volcano. The Santorini volcanic complex is composed of two active volcanoes—Nea Kameni and Mt. Columbo. Holocene eruptions have generated a variety of processes and deposits and eruption mechanisms pose significant hazards of various types. It has been recognized that, for major European volcanoes, few studies have focused on the social aspects of volcanic activity and little work has been conducted on public perceptions of hazard, risk and vulnerability. Such assessments are an important element of establishing public education programmes and developing volcano disaster management plans. We investigate perceptions of volcanic hazards on Santorini. We find that most residents know that Nea Kameni is active, but only 60% know that Mt. Columbo is active. Forty percent of residents fear that negative impacts on tourism will have the greatest effect on their community. In the event of an eruption, 43% of residents would try to evacuate the island by plane/ferry. Residents aged >50 have retained a memory of the effects of the last eruption at the island, whereas younger residents have no such knowledge. We find that dignitaries and municipal officers (those responsible for planning and managing disaster response) are informed about the history, hazards and effects of the volcanoes. However, there is no “emergency plan” for the island and there is confusion between various departments (Civil Defense, Fire, Police, etc.) about the emergency decision-making process. The resident population of Santorini is at high risk from the hazards associated with a future eruption.  相似文献   

3.
Volcanic eruptions typically produce a number of hazards, and many regions are at risk from more than one volcano or volcanic field. So that detailed risk assessments can be carried out, it is necessary to rank potential volcanic hazards and events in terms of risk. As it is often difficult to make accurate predictions regarding the characteristics of future eruptions, a method for ranking hazards and events has been developed that does not rely on precise values. Risk is calculated individually for each hazard from each source as the product of likelihood, extent and effect, based on the parameters order of magnitude. So that multiple events and outcomes can be considered, risk is further multiplied by the relative probability of the event occurring (probabilitye) and the relative importance of the outcome (importanceo). By adding the values obtained, total risk is calculated and a ranking can be carried out.This method was used to rank volcanic hazards and events that may impact the Auckland Region, New Zealand. Auckland is at risk from the Auckland volcanic field, Okataina volcanic centre, Taupo volcano, Tuhua volcano, Tongariro volcanic centre, and Mt. Taranaki volcano. Relative probabilities were determined for each event, with the highest given to Mt. Taranaki. Hazards considered were, for local events: tephra fall, scoria fall and ballistic impacts, lava flow, base surge and associated shock waves, tsunami, volcanic gases and acid rain, earthquakes and ground deformation, mudflows and mudfills, lightning and flooding; and for distal events: tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, poisonous gases and acid rain, mudflows and mudfills, climate variations and earthquakes. Hazards from each source were assigned values for likelihood, with the largest for tephra fall from all sources, earthquakes and ground deformation, lava flows, scoria fall and base surge for an Auckland eruption on land, and earthquakes and ground deformation from an Auckland eruption in the ocean. The largest values for extent were for tephra fall and climate variation from each of the distal centres. However, these parameters do not give a true indication of risk. In a companion paper the effect of each hazard is fully investigated and the risk ranking completed.  相似文献   

4.
In a companion paper, a methodology for ranking volcanic hazards and events in terms of risk was presented, and the likelihood and extent of potential hazards in the Auckland Region, New Zealand investigated. In this paper, the effects of each hazard are considered and the risk ranking completed. Values for effect are proportions of total loss and, as with likelihood and extent, are based on order of magnitude.Two outcomes were considered – building damage and loss of human life. In terms of building damage, tephra produces the highest risk by an order of magnitude, followed by lava flows and base surge. For loss of human life, risk from base surge is highest. The risks from pyroclastic flows and tsunami are an order of magnitude smaller. When combined, tephra fall followed by base surge produces the highest risk. The risks from lava flows and pyroclastic flows are an order of magnitude smaller. For building damage, the risk from Mt. Taranaki volcano, 280 km from the Auckland CBD, is largest, followed by Okataina volcanic centre, an Auckland volcanic field eruption centred on land, then Tongariro volcanic centre. In terms of human loss, the greatest risk is from an Auckland eruption centred on land. The risks from an Auckland eruption centred in the ocean, Okataina volcanic centre, and Taupo volcano are more than an order of magnitude smaller. When combined, the risk from Mt. Taranaki remains highest, followed by an Auckland eruption centred on land. The next largest risks are from the Okataina and Tongariro volcanic centres, followed by Taupo volcano.Three alternative situations were investigated. As multiple eruptions may occur from the Auckland volcanic field, it was assumed that a local event would involve two eruptions. This increased risk of a local eruption occurring on land so that it was equal to that of an eruption from Mt. Taranaki. It is possible that a future eruption may be of a similar, or larger size, to the previous Rangitoto eruption. Risk was re-calculated for local eruptions based on the extent of hazards from Rangitoto. This increased the risk of lava flow to greater than that of base surge, and the risk from an Auckland land eruption became greatest. The relative probabilities used for Mt. Taranaki volcano and the Auckland volcanic field may only be minimum values. When the probability of these occurring was increased by 50%, there was no change in either ranking.Editorial responsibility: J. S. Gilbert  相似文献   

5.
Longgang volcano cluster is 150km away from the Tianchi volcano, located in Jingyu and Huinan Counties, Jilin Province, China. It had a long active history and produced hundreds of volcanoes. The latest and largest eruption occurred between 1 500 and 1 600 years ago by Jinlongdingzi(JLDZ)volcano which had several eruptions in the history. This paper discusses the volcanic hazard types, and using the numerical simulations of lava flow obtained with the Volcflow model, proposes the hazard zonation of JLDZ volcano area. JLDZ volcano eruption type is sub-plinian, which produced a great mass of tephra fallout, covering an area of 260km2. The major types of volcanic hazards in JLDZ area are lava flow, tephra fallout and spatter deposits. Volcflow is developed by Kelfoun for the simulation of volcanic flows. The result of Volcflow shows that the flows are on the both sides of the previous lava flows which are low-lying areas now. According to the physical parameters of historical eruption and Volcflow, we propose the preliminary volcanic hazard zonation in JLDZ area. The air fall deposits are the most dangerous product in JLDZ. The highly dangerous region of spatter deposits is limited to a radius of about 2km around the volcano. The high risk area of tephra fallout is between 2km to 9km around the volcano, and between 9km to 14km is the moderate risk area. Out of 14km, it is the low risk area. Lava flow is controlled by topography. From Jinchuan Town to Houhe Village near the volcano is the low-lying area. If the volcano erupts, these areas will be in danger.  相似文献   

6.
长白山天池火山减灾对策初探   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  
国内外专家学者认为，长白山天池火山是一座具潜在灾害性喷发危险的活火山，因此制定火山减灾对策理应提到议事日程。针对天池火山研究现状和火山灾害特点，制定了火山活动各阶段的减灾对策。中长期阶段应加强火山监测与研究和火山知识宣传工作，采取必要的工程防护措施，重大工程进行火山安全性评价，制定火山喷发应急预案；短期阶段请求国际火山流动监测台网给予支援；临近喷发阶段重点是有组织的撤离；喷发及其后阶段应及时救灾抢险，对火山喷发趋势进行科学判定，合理地重建家园。  相似文献   

7.
Event tree structures constitute one of the most useful and necessary tools in modern volcanology for assessment of hazards from future volcanic scenarios (those that culminate in an eruptive event as well as those that do not). They are particularly relevant for evaluation of long- and short-term probabilities of occurrence of possible volcanic scenarios and their potential impacts on urbanized areas. In this paper, we introduce Hazard Assessment Event Tree (HASSET), a probability tool, built on an event tree structure that uses Bayesian inference to estimate the probability of occurrence of a future volcanic scenario and to evaluate the most relevant sources of uncertainty from the corresponding volcanic system. HASSET includes hazard assessment of noneruptive and nonmagmatic volcanic scenarios, that is, episodes of unrest that do not evolve into volcanic eruption but have an associated volcanic hazard (e.g., sector collapse and phreatic explosion), as well as unrest episodes triggered by external triggers rather than the magmatic system alone. Additionally, HASSET introduces the Delta method to assess precision of the probability estimates, by reporting a 1 standard deviation variability interval around the expected value for each scenario. HASSET is presented as a free software package in the form of a plug-in for the open source geographic information system Quantum Gis (QGIS), providing a graphically supported computation of the event tree structure in an interactive and user-friendly way. We also include further in-depth explanations for each node together with an application of HASSET to Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex (Spain).  相似文献   

8.
More than 40 late Cenozoic monogenetic volcanoes formed a volcanic belt striking NNW from Keluo, through Wudalianchi to Erkeshan in NE China. These volcanoes belong to a unified volcano system, namely Wudalianchi volcanic belt(WVB for short). Based on the volcanic evolution history and the nature of monogenetic volcanic system, we estimate that the volcanic system of WVB is still active and has the potential to erupt again. Hence, this paper studied the temporal-spatial distribution and volcanic eruption types to evaluate the possible eruption hazard types and areas of influence in the future. Volcanic field characteristics and K-Ar radiometric data suggest two episodes of volcanism in the WVB, the Pliocene to early Pleistocene volcanism(4.59~1.00MaBP)and the middle Pleistocene to Holocene volcanism(0.79Ma to now). The early episode volcanoes are distributed only in the north of WVB(mainly in Keluo volcanic field), featured by effusive eruption, and mainly formed monogenetic shield, whose base diameter is large and slope is gentle. However, the late episode eruptions occurred over the entire WVB. The explosive eruption in this stage formed numerous relatively intact scoria cones of explosive origin. Meanwhile the effusive eruption formed widely distributed lava flows. Both effusive eruption and explosive eruption are common in WVB. The effusive eruption formed monogenetic shields and lava flows. The resulting pahoehoe lava, aa lava and block lava appeared in WVB. There are three end-member types of explosive eruption driven by magmatic volatile. Violent Strombolian eruption has the highest degree of fragmentation and mass flux, characterized by eruption column. Strombolian eruption has the high degree of fragmentation, but low mass flux, featured by pulse eruption. Hawaiian eruption has low degree of fragmentation, but high in mass flux, generating large scoria cones. In addition, this paper for the first time found phreatomagmatic eruption in WVB, which formed tuff cone. Transitional eruptions are also common in WVB, which have certain characteristics among the end-member eruption types. Besides, certain volcanoes displayed multiple explosive eruption types during the whole eruption span. According to the volcanic temporal-spatial distribution and eruption characteristics in WVB, the potential volcanic hazards in future are constrained. It appears that the violent Strombolian and Strombolian eruption will not have significant impact on aviation safety in the vertical direction. In the radial direction, the ejected volcanic bomb can reach as far as 1km from the vents and the fallout tephra may disperse downwind over a distance ranging from 1~10km. The major hazard of Hawaiian eruption and effusive eruption comes from lava flow, and its migration distance may reach 3.0~13.5km for pahoehoe lava and 2.9~14.9km for aa lava. The base surge in phreatomagmatic eruption can reach a velocity of 200~400m/s, and the migration distance is around 10km. This is a big threat that people should pay more attention to and take precautions in advance. Besides, it is necessary to strengthen the real-time observation of the volcanoes in the WVB, especially those formed in the late episode as well as near the active fault.  相似文献   

9.
火山碎屑空降沉积的二维数值模拟   总被引：2，自引：5，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文
赵谊  张程远  席道瑛 《地震地质》2002,24(3):377-386
从大气中火山灰扩散的二维微分方程出发 ,采用Suzuki(1983)对火山空降碎屑灾害数值模拟的数学模型 ,研制出用于单个火山一次性喷发事件的碎屑物空降沉积分布的实用程序。介绍了编程的基本思想 ,讨论了编程过程中所遇到的实际问题 ,同时结合长白山火山物理研究工作给出的长白山火山动力学参数 ,对长白山火山喷发空降碎屑厚度分布进行了具体模拟应用 ,针对实际模拟结果对程序提出了改进意见 ,并对Suzuki火山碎屑空降沉积模型进行了讨论  相似文献   

10.
Reliable forecasting of the next eruption at Vesuvius is the main scientific factor in defining effective strategies to reduce volcanic risk in one of the most dangerous volcanic areas of the world. In this paper, we apply a recently developed probabilistic code for eruption forecasting to new and independent historical data related to the pre-eruptive phase of the 1631 eruption. The results obtained point out three main issues: (1) the importance of “cold” historical data (according to Guidoboni 2008) related to pre-eruptive phases for evaluating forecasting tools and possibly refining them; (2) the BET_EF code implemented for Vesuvius would have forecasted the 1631 eruption satisfactorily, marking different stages of the pre-eruptive phase; (3) the code shows that pre-eruptive signals that significantly increase the probability of eruption were likely detected more than 2 months before the event.  相似文献   

11.
Determining consistent sets of vent conditions for next expected eruptions at Vesuvius is crucial for the simulation of the sub-aerial processes originating the volcanic hazard and the eruption impact. Here we refer to the expected eruptive scales and conditions defined in the frame of the EC Exploris project, and simulate the dynamics of magma ascent along the volcanic conduit for sub-steady phases of next eruptions characterized by intensities of the Violent Strombolian (VS), Sub-Plinian 2 (SP2), and Sub-Plinian 1 (SP1) scale. Sets of conditions for the simulations are determined on the basis of the bulk of knowledge on the past history of Vesuvius [Cioni, R., Bertagnini, A., Santacroce, R., Andronico, D., Explosive activity and eruption scenarios at Somma–Vesuvius (Italy): towards a new classification scheme. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, this issue.]. Volatile contents (H2O and CO2) are parameterized in order to account for the uncertainty in their expected amounts for a next eruption. In all cases the flow in the conduit is found to be choked, with velocities at the conduit exit or vent corresponding to the sonic velocity in the two-phase non-equilibrium magmatic mixture. Conduit diameters and vent mixture densities are found to display minimum overlapping between the different eruptive scales, while exit gas and particle velocities, as well as vent pressures, largely overlap. Vent diameters vary from as low as about 5 m for VS eruptions, to 35–55 m for the most violent SP1 eruption scale. Vent pressures can be as low as less than 1 MPa for the lowest volatile content employed of 2 wt.% H2O and no CO2, to 7–8 MPa for highest volatile contents of 5 wt.% H2O and 2 wt.% CO2 and large eruptive scales. Gas and particle velocities at the vent range from 100–250 m/s, with a tendency to decrease, and to increase the mechanical decoupling between the phases, with increasing eruptive scale. Except for velocities, all relevant vent quantities are more sensitive to the volatile content of the discharged magma for the highest eruptive scales considered.  相似文献   

12.
龙岗金龙顶子火山空降碎屑物数值模拟及概率性灾害评估   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
空降碎屑物为爆炸式火山喷发产生的一种重要的灾害类型,数值模拟已成为一个快速有效地确定火山灰扩散和沉积范围的方法。本文根据改进的Suzuki(1983)二维扩散模型,编写了基于Windows环境下的火山灰扩散程序。通过对前人资料的分析,模拟了龙岗火山群中最新火山喷发——金龙顶子火山喷发产生的空降碎屑物扩散范围,与实测结果具有很好的一致性,证实了模型的可靠性和参数的合理性。根据该区10年的风参数,模拟了7021次不同风参数时金龙顶子火山灰的扩散范围,以此制作了火山灰沉积厚度超过1cm和0.5cm时的概率性空降碎屑灾害区划图。本文的研究可为龙岗火山区火山危险性分析和灾害预警与对策提供重要的科学依据。  相似文献   

13.
In the paper the first attempt at the definition of a model to assess the impact of a range of different volcanic hazards on the building structures is presented. This theoretical approach has been achieved within the activities of the EXPLORIS Project supported by the EU. A time history for Sub-Plinian I eruptive scenario of the Vesuvius is assumed by taking advantage of interpretation of historical reports of volcanic crises of the past [Carafa, G. 1632. In opusculum de novissima Vesuvij conflagratione, epistola isagogica, 2a ed. Napoli, Naples; Mascolo, G.B., 1634. De incendio Vesuvii excitato xvij. Kal. Ianuar. anno trigesimo primo sæculi Decimiseptimi libri X. Cum Chronologia superiorum incendiorum; & Ephemeride ultimi. Napoli; Varrone, S., 1634. Vesuviani incendii historiae libri tres. Napoli], numerical simulations [Neri, A., Esposti Ongaro, T., Macedonio, G., Gidaspow, D., 2003. Multiparticle simulation of collapsing volcanic columns and pyroclastic flows. J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 108, 2202. doi:10.1029/2001 JB000508; Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. HAZMAP: a computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31,837–845; Costa, A., Macedonio, G., Folch, A., 2006. A three-dimensional Eulerian model for transport and deposition of volcanic ashes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 241,634–647] and experts' elicitations [Aspinall, W.P., 2006. Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions. In: Mader, H.M. Coles, S.G. Connor, C.B. Connor, L.J. (Eds), Statistics in Volcanology. Geological Society of London on behalf of IAVCEI, pp.15–30; Woo, G., 1999. The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes. Imperial College Press, London] from which the impact on the building structures is derived. This is achieved by an original definition of vulnerability functions for multi-hazard input and a dynamic cumulative damage model. Factors affecting the variability of the final scenario are highlighted. The results show the high sensitivity of hazard combinations in time and space distribution and address how to mitigate building vulnerability to subsequent eruptive phenomena [Baxter, P., Spence, R., Zuccaro, G., 2008-this issue. Risk mitigation and emergency measures at Vesuvius].  相似文献   

14.
国外火山减灾研究进展   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  
徐光宇  皇甫岗 《地震研究》1998,21(4):397-405
概述了国外近期火山灾害减轻进展,内容包括：火山灾害分类,识别高危险性火山,灾害识别、评价和分带,火山监测和喷发预测。减轻火山灾害的工程措施以有火山应急管理等方面。并对几次重大火山喷发灾难实例作了介绍和分析比较  相似文献   

15.
Satellite data were the primary source of information for the eruption of Mt. Cleveland, Alaska on 19 February, and 11 and 19 March 2001. Multiple data sets were used pre-, syn- and post-eruption to mitigate the hazard and determine an eruption chronology. The 19 February eruption was the largest of the three, resulting in a volcanic cloud that formed an arc over 1000 km long, moved to the NE across Alaska and was tracked using satellite data over more than a 50-h period. The volcanic cloud was “concurrently” detected on the GOES, AVHRR and MODIS data at various times and their respective signals compared. All three sensors detected a cloud that had a very similar shape and position but there were differences in their areal extent and internal structural detail. GOES data showed the largest volcanic cloud in terms of area, probably due to its oblique geometry. MODIS bands 31 and 32, which are comparable to GOES and AVHRR thermal infrared wavelengths, were the least effective single channels at detecting the volcanic cloud of those investigated (MODIS bands 28, 29, 31 and 32). MODIS bands 28 and 29 detected the largest volcanic clouds that could easily be distinguished from weather clouds. Of the split-window data, MODIS bands 29 minus band 32 detected the largest cloud, but the band 31 minus band 32 data showed the volcanic cloud with the most internal structural detail. The Puff tracking model accurately tracked the movement, and predicted the extent and shape of this complex cloud even into areas beyond satellite detection. Numerous thermal anomalies were also observed during the eruption on the twice-daily AVHRR data and the high spatial-resolution Landsat data. The high-resolution Radarsat data showed that the AVHRR thermal anomalies were due to lava and debris flow features and a newly formed fan along the west coast of the island. Field observations and images from a hand-held Forward Looking Infrared Radiometer (FLIR) showed that the flow features were ′a′a lava, debris flows and a warm debris fan along the west coast. Real-time satellite data were the primary tool used to monitor the eruption, track changes and to mitigate hazards. High-resolution data, even though coverage is infrequent, were critical in helping to identify volcanic processes and to compile an eruption chronology.  相似文献   

16.
The probabilistic analysis of volcanic eruption time series is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk. Such series describe complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series is proposed for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions. The first step of the analysis is to characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes. As is the case in most natural phenomena, lower magnitude events are more frequent, and the behavior of the eruption series may be biased by such events. On the other hand, eruptive series are commonly studied using conventional statistics and treated as homogeneous Poisson processes. However, time-dependent series, or sequences including rare or extreme events, represented by very few data of large eruptions require special methods of analysis, such as the extreme-value theory applied to non-homogeneous Poisson processes. Here we propose a general methodology for analyzing such processes attempting to obtain better estimates of the volcanic hazard. This is done in three steps: Firstly, the historical eruptive series is complemented with the available geological eruption data. The linking of these series is done assuming an inverse relationship between the eruption magnitudes and the occurrence rate of each magnitude class. Secondly, we perform a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose time between successive eruptions. Thirdly, the linked eruption series are analyzed as a non-homogeneous Poisson process with a generalized Pareto distribution as intensity function. As an application, the method is tested on the eruption series of five active polygenetic Mexican volcanoes: Colima, Citlaltépetl, Nevado de Toluca, Popocatépetl and El Chichón, to obtain hazard estimates.  相似文献   

17.
Volcanic Risk has been defined as the product: R = Value × Vulnerability × Hazard, where value is the total amount of lives or properties at risk for a volcani eruption, the vulnerability is the percentage of value at risk for a given volcanic event, and the hazard is the probability that a given area may be affected by a certain volcanic phenomenon.We used this definition to evaluate the Risk of loss of human lives for volcanic eruptions of Vesuvius. Value has been determined based on the total number of inhabitants living in areas that could be affected by an eruption. Vulnerability is based on the relative probability of deaths as a result of different volcanic phenomena (tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, etc.). Hazard is evaluated based on the absolute probability of a given phenomenon in a certain area. This last parameter is the most difficult to evaluate.We subdivided the activity of Vesuvius, that produces risk of loss of human lives, into three classes of eruptions, based on the Volcanic Explosivity Index. We assume that the events of each class are distributed according to a poissonian distribution (this is demonstrated for VEI = 3, and inferred for the other classes), so that we can evaluate the absolute probability of an eruption for each class within a given time span. We use a time window of 10 years and evaluate the probabilities of occurrence of at least one eruption for VEI = 3, 4, 5; the probability is respectively: P3 = 0.09896, P4 = 0.01748, P5 = 0.00298We have made a hazard evaluation for the entire Vesuvian area as well as an evaluation of Volcanic Risk.The obtained map shows that the areas with higher risk are on the southern side of Vesuvius, in the coastal region where each town is characterized by an average Risk of 1000 inhabitants/10 years. The risk regularly decreases with increasing distance from the volcano. The risk is mostly due to the events with VEI = 3 and 4, as the most destructive effects of VEI = 5 are counterbalanced by the lower probability of such events.The map of volcanic risk is not intended to predict the loss of human lives of an eruption, but to give a methodology that permits to identify those areas where it is necessary to operate in order to reduce the risk of an eruption before it occurs.  相似文献   

18.
This paper examines the relationship between volcanic risk and the tourism sector in southern Iceland and the complex challenge emergency management officials face in developing effective volcanic risk mitigation strategies. An early warning system and emergency response procedures were developed for communities surrounding Katla, the volcano underlying the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap. However, prior to and during the 2007 tourist season these mitigation efforts were not effectively communicated to stakeholders located in the tourist destination of Þórsmörk despite its location within the hazard zone of Katla. The hazard zone represents the potential extent of a catastrophic jökulhlaup (glacial outburst flood). Furthermore, volcanic risk mitigation efforts in Þórsmörk were based solely on information derived from physical investigations of volcanic hazards. They did not consider the human dimension of risk. In order to address this gap and provide support to current risk mitigation efforts, questionnaire surveys were used to investigate tourists' and tourism employees' hazard knowledge, risk perception, adoption of personal preparedness measures, predicted behaviour if faced with a Katla eruption and views on education.Results indicate that tourists lack hazard knowledge and they do not adopt preparedness measures to deal with the consequences of an eruption. Despite a high level of risk perception, tourism employees lack knowledge about the early warning system and emergency response procedures. Results show that tourists are positive about receiving information concerning Katla and its hazards and therefore, the reticence of tourism employees with respect to disseminating hazard information is unjustified.In order to improve the tourism sector's collective capacity to positively respond during a future eruption, recommendations are made to ensure adequate dissemination of hazard, risk and emergency response information. Most importantly education campaigns should focus on: (a) increasing tourists' knowledge of Katla, jökulhlaup and other volcanic hazards and (b) increasing tourist and employee awareness of the early warning and information system and appropriate behavioural response if a warning is issued. Further, tourism employees should be required to participate in emergency training and evacuation exercises annually. These efforts are timely given that Katla is expected to erupt in the near future and international tourism is an expanding industry in Þórsmörk.  相似文献   

19.
Starting from the 1980's of last century, China has launched the national plan of constructing nuclear power plants along the coastline region in eastern China. Currently, in some of these candidate sites, nuclear facilities have been installed and are in operation, but some other nuclear power plants are still under construction or in site evaluation. In 2012 the Atomic Energy Commission issued the specific guide for volcanic hazards in site evaluation for nuclear installations(IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG-21), which was prepared under the IAEA's program for safety standards. It supplements and provides recommendations for meeting the requirements for nuclear installations established in the safety requirements publication on site evaluation for nuclear installations in relation to volcanic hazards. To satisfy the safety standards for volcanic hazard, we follow the IAEA SSG-21 guidelines and develop a simple and practical diffusion program in order to evaluate the potential volcanic hazard caused by tephra fallout from the explosive eruptions. In this practice, we carried out a case study of the active volcanoes in north Hainan Province so as to conduct the probabilistic analysis of the potential volcanic hazard in the surrounding region. The Quaternary volcanism in north Hainan Island, so-called Qiongbei volcanic field is characterized by multi periodic activity, in which the most recent eruption is dated at about 4 000a BP. According to IAEA SSG-21, a capable volcano is one for which both 1)a future eruption or related volcanic event is credible; and 2)such an event has the potential to produce phenomena that may affect a site. Therefore, the Qiongbei volcanic field is capable of producing hazardous phenomena that may reach the potential nuclear power plants around. The input parameters for the simulation of tephra fallout from the future eruption of the Qiongbei volcanic field, such as the size, density and shape of the tephra, the bulk volume and column height, the diffusion parameter P(z), wind direction and intensity, were obtained by field investigation and laboratory analysis. We carried out more than 10000 tephra fallout simulations using a statistical dataset of wind profiles which are obtained from China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System(CMDSSS). Tephra fallout hazard probability maps were constructed for tephra thickness threshold of 1cm. Our results show that the tephra produced by the future large-scale explosive eruption from the Qiongbei volcanic field can affect the area in a range about 250km away from the eruption center. In summary, the current key technical parameters related to volcanic activity and potential hazards in IAEA/SSG-21 guidelines, such as 10Ma volcanic life cycle and 1×10-7 volcanic disaster screening probability threshold, etc. are based on the volcanic activity characteristics in the volcanic island arc system. In consideration of the relatively low level of volcanic activity compared with volcanic island arc system due to the different tectonic background of volcanism in mainland China, the time scale of volcanic disaster assessment in IAEA SSG-21 guideline is relatively high for volcanoes in mainland China. We suggest that the study of "conceptual model" of volcanic activity should be strengthened in future work to prove that there is no credible potential for future eruptions, so that these volcanoes should be screened out at early stage instead of further evaluation by probabilistic model.  相似文献   

20.
In this study, we address the issue of short-term to medium-term probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for two volcanic areas, Campi Flegrei caldera and Mt. Vesuvius in the Campania region of southern Italy. Two different phases of the volcanic activity are considered. The first, which we term the pre-crisis phase, concerns the present quiescent state of the volcanoes that is characterized by low-to-moderate seismicity. The second phase, syn-crisis, concerns the unrest phase that can potentially lead to eruption. For the Campi Flegrei case study, we analyzed the pattern of seismicity during the 1982–1984 ground uplift episode (bradyseism). For Mt. Vesuvius, two different time-evolutionary models for seismicity were adopted, corresponding to different ways in which the volcano might erupt. We performed a site-specific analysis, linked with the hazard map, to investigate the effects of input parameters, in terms of source geometry, mean activity rate, periods of data collection, and return periods, for the syn-crisis phase. The analysis in the present study of the pre-crisis phase allowed a comparison of the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the two study areas with those provided in the Italian national hazard map. For the Mt. Vesuvius area in particular, the results show that the hazard can be greater than that reported in the national hazard map when information at a local scale is used. For the syn-crisis phase, the main result is that the data recorded during the early months of the unrest phase are substantially representative of the seismic hazard during the whole duration of the crisis.  相似文献   

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