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1.
Summary A community mesoscale model is used to simulate and understand processes that led to the formation and intensification of
the near-equatorial typhoon Vamei that formed in the South China Sea in December, 2001. The simulated typhoon resembles the
observed in that it had a short lifetime and a small size, formed near the equator (south of 2° N), and reached category-one
intensity. The formation involved the interactions between the scales of the background cyclonic circulation (the Borneo Vortex
of order ∼100 km) and of mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs, in the order ∼10 km). Before tropical cyclone formation MCVs
formed along a convergent, horizontal shear vorticity line on the eastern edge of an exceptionally strong monsoonal northerly
wind surge.
The typhoon genesis is marked by three rapid intensification periods, which are associated with the rapid growth of potential
vorticity (PV). A vorticity budget analysis reveals that the increases in low-level vorticity during the rapid intensification
periods are attributed to enhanced horizontal vorticity fluxes into the storm core. The increase of the horizontal vorticity
flux is associated with the merging of areas of high PV associated with MCVs into the storm core as they are advected by background
cyclonic flows. The increases in PV at upper levels are associated with the evaporation of upper level stratiform precipitation
and increases of vertical potential temperature gradient below the maximum stratiform cloud layer. It appears that two key
sources of PV at upper and lower levels are crucial for the build up of high PV and a deepening of a cyclonic layer throughout
the troposphere. 相似文献
2.
Tropical cyclone track and intensity prediction: The generation and assimilation of high-density, satellite-derived data 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
J. F. Le Marshall L. M. Leslie R. F. Abbey Jr. L. Qi 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2002,80(1-4):43-57
Summary The impact of recent scientific and technological advances in tropical cyclone track, intensity and structure modeling is
discussed. Since the early 1990s, developments have occurred in remote sensing, data assimilation procedures, numerical models
and high performance computing. In particular, there is now quasi-continuous high spatial and temporal resolution data coverage
over the previously data-sparse oceans where tropical cyclones spend most of their life cycles. There has been a rapid development
of data assimilation methodologies capable of using these data to initialize high-resolution prediction models. Model developments
have reached a stage of maturity where the representation of many of the physical processes necessary for improved tropical
cyclone track and intensity prediction are now included. Finally, available computer power has reached the teraflop range.
Most operational centers have high performance computers capable of tropical cyclone modeling at resolutions necessary for
skillful track and intensity simulations.
This article focuses on combining all of the above developments in a tropical cyclone data analysis and prediction system.
The system has produced statistically significant reductions in the mean forecast error statistics for tropical cyclone track
predictions and resulted in far more realistic simulations of tropical cyclone intensity and structure. A large number of
tropical cyclones have been modeled, with emphasis on those classified as being “difficult” storms to predict accurately.
These difficult storms are most responsible for rapidly growing forecast errors. Our results are illustrated by case studies
of such tropical cyclones.
Received October 9, 2001 Revised December 28, 2001 相似文献
3.
运用中尺度数值模式WRF耦合城市冠层模式（urban canopy model,UCM）,对2016年登陆深圳的热带气旋妮妲（1604）（以下简称妮妲）进行数值模拟。高分辨率数值模拟较好地再现了妮妲登陆前后的强度、路径和累积降水。利用城市化过程当中城市冠层对热带气旋降水的敏感性试验结果表明:城市冠层会减弱对流运动和水汽的输送,导致热带气旋登陆后珠江口城市群区域累积降水量略减少。应用最新的土地利用资料进行的城市下垫面敏感性试验结果表明:由于城市下垫面粗糙度增加,造成登陆地面风的减速,强度减弱,潜热通量与2 m高度比湿相应减小;城市下垫面粗糙度增加会加强该区域垂直对流运动以及不稳定能量增加,有利于降水增强,尤其在城市化下垫面处,热带气旋登陆后6 h累积降水增加量最大可超过20 mm。总体而言,对登陆热带气旋降水而言,耦合城市冠层使城市区域热带气旋降水减少,但在数值模拟中城市冠层影响作用不显著。城市化下垫面对登陆热带气旋暴雨的增幅作用明显,在登陆热带气旋降水预报中应重视。 相似文献
4.
Summary An attempt has been made to simulate the unprecedented heavy precipitation of 94.4 cm in a day over Santacruz, Mumbai during
0300 UTC 26 July to 0300 UTC 27 July 2005. Three experiments have been conducted using Advanced Regional Prediction System
model developed by Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms of Oklahoma University, USA. In first experiment the model
input at large domain size has been obtained using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data at 2.5° × 2.5° lat.–lon. resolution. In other
two experiments model input at large as well as at small domain sizes, have been obtained from NCEP/NCAR FNL data of 1° ×
1° lat.–lon. resolution. In all three experiments model’s horizontal resolution is 40 km and integration period is 30 hours
from 0000 UTC 26 July 2005. Based on the temporal distribution of observed rainfall rates it is considered that the rainfall
of 38.1 cm during 0900–1200 UTC on 26 July could be due to cloud burst phenomenon and 56.3 cm from 1200 UTC of 26 July to
0300 UTC of 27 July has been due to continuous regeneration of thunderstorm activity under influence of mesoscale cloud complex.
It is found that model forecast of rainfall in first experiment was qualitatively as well as quantitatively very poor. Among
other two, experiment with large domain size has predicted better rainfall values and location compared to the experiment
with small domain size. The larger domain has produced rainfall of 41 cm as against observed rain rate of 56.3 cm. during
1200 UTC of 26 July to 0300 UTC of 27 July. Divergence, vorticity, vertical velocity and moisture parameters are examined
in relation with the various stages of the event. The maximum values of convergence, vorticity and moisture fluxes precede
the initial phase of mature stage, however vertical velocity follows the later phase of mature stage. Vorticity budget over
the location of maximum rainfall, revealed the significant role of tilting term in maintenance and dissipation of the cloud
complex responsible for the event. The model has simulated mixing ratios of ice, snow and hail up to height of 15 km which
matches with the observations that clouds reaching up to 15 km were present at the time of event of heavy precipitation. 相似文献
5.
基于副热带奇异向量的初值扰动方法已应用于GRAPES （Global and Regional Assimilation PrEdiction System）全球集合预报系统,但存在热带气旋预报路径离散度不足的问题。通过分析发现,热带气旋附近区域初值扰动结构不合理导致预报集合不能较好地估计热带气旋预报的不确定性,是路径集合离散度不足的可能原因之一。通过建立热带气旋奇异向量求解方案,将热带气旋奇异向量和副热带奇异向量共同线性组合生成初值扰动,以弥补热带气旋区域初值扰动结构不合理这一缺陷,进而改进热带气旋集合预报效果。利用GRAPES全球奇异向量计算方案,以台风中心10个经纬度区域为目标区构建热带气旋奇异向量求解方案,针对台风“榕树”个例进行集合预报试验,并开展批量试验,利用中国中央气象台最优台风路径和中国国家气象信息中心的降水观测资料进行检验,对比分析热带气旋奇异向量结构特征和初值扰动特征,评估热带气旋奇异向量对热带气旋路径集合预报和中国区域24 h累计降水概率预报技巧的影响。结果表明,热带气旋奇异向量具有局地化特征,使用热带气旋奇异向量之后,热带气旋路径离散度增加,路径集合平均预报误差和离散度的关系得到改善,路径集合平均预报误差有所减小,集合成员更好地描述了热带气旋路径的预报不确定性;中国台风降水的小雨、中雨、大雨、暴雨各量级24 h累计降水概率预报技巧均有一定提高。总之,当在初值扰动的生成中考虑热带气旋奇异向量后,可改进热带气旋初值扰动结果,并有助于改善热带气旋路径集合预报效果。 相似文献
6.
When Typhoon Toraji(2001)reached the Bohai Gulf during 1-2 August 2001,a heavy rainfall event occurred over Shandong province in China along the gulf.The Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecast(WRF-ARW)model was used to explore possible effects of environmental factors,including effects of moisture transportation,upper-level trough interaction with potential vorticity anomalies,tropical cyclone(TC)remnant circulation,and TC boundary-layer process on the re-intensification of Typhoon Toraji,which re-entered the Bohai Gulf after having made a landfall.The National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)global final(FNL)analysis provided both the initial and lateral boundary conditions for the WRF-ARW model.The model was initialized at 1200 UTC on 31 July and integrated until 1200 UTC on 3 August 2001,during which Toraji remnant experienced the extratropical transition and re-intensification.Five numerical experiments were performed in this study,including one control and four sensitivity experiments.In the control experiment,the simulated typhoon had a track and intensity change similar to those observed.The results from three sensitivity experiments showed that the moisture transfer by a southwesterly lower-level jet,a low vortex to the northeast of China,and the presence of Typhoon Toraji all played important roles in simulated heavy rainfall over Shandong and remnant re-intensification over the sea,which are consistent with the observation.One of the tests illustrated that the local boundary layer forcing played a secondary role in the TC intensity change over the sea. 相似文献
7.
利用最新研发的区域海-气-浪耦合数值模式(Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport,COAWST),对印度洋一次超强热带气旋“Fani”(2019)过程进行了数值模拟试验。“Fani”4月26日从热带印度洋面上的低压扰动中生成,在移动北上的过程中逐渐增强为强热带风暴,并于5月3日在印度登陆,造成了严重的破坏。利用COAWST耦合数值模式,在印度洋区域设计了数值模拟试验,分析了“Fani”发展增强到登陆时间段(4月30日12时—5月3日12时)大气物理量场、海洋表面温度及通量场,以及海浪参数的相应变化。通过与International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS)的实测风暴路径、强度数据,以及欧洲中心ERA5再分析资料对比结果表明：模式模拟“Fani”的移动路径与观测较为接近,但是在强度模拟上偏弱;大气地表2 m温度场、潜热和感热通量与ERA5再分析资料存在一定偏差,但模拟的海表面温度场强度和特征与ERA5再分析资料都比较接近;在强烈的热带气旋与海洋相互作用... 相似文献
8.
Numerical simulation of a South China Sea typhoon Leo (1999) 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
K.-H. Lau Z.-F. Zhang H.-Y. Lam S.-J. Chen 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2003,83(3-4):147-161
Summary ?A South China Sea typhoon, Leo (1999), was simulated using the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model MM5 with the Betts-Miller
convective parameterization scheme (BMEX). The simulation had two nested domains with resolutions at 54 and 18 km, and the
forecast duration was 36 hours. The model was quite successful in predicting the track, the rapid deepening, the central pressure,
and the maximum wind speed of typhoon Leo as verified with reports from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO). The structure of
the eye, the eye wall, and the spiral convective cloud band simulated in the model are found to be comparable to corresponding
features identified in satellite images for the storm, and also with those reported by other authors.
A trajectory analysis was performed. Three kinds of trajectory were found: (1) spirally rising trajectories near the eye wall;
(2) spirally rising/descending trajectories in the convective/cloud free belt; (3) straight and fast rising trajectories in
a heavy convection zone along one of the cloud bands on the periphery of the tropical cyclone.
Both the HKO and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported the rapid deepening of Leo started around 00 UTC 29
April. In the model, the eye was first formed in the lower troposphere, and it extended to the upper troposphere within a
few hours. We speculate that the spin-up of cyclonic rotation in the low-level eye enhanced the positive vorticity along the
low-level eye wall. The positive vorticity was then transported to the upper troposphere by convection, leading to an extension
and growth of the eye into the upper troposphere.
To examine the impact of convective parameterization scheme (CPS) on the simulation, the Grell scheme (GLEX) was also tested.
The GLEX predicted a weaker typhoon with a wilder eye that extended not as high up in the upper troposphere as BMEX. The different
structures of the eye between the BMEX and GLEX suggest that the mesoscale features of the eye are dependent on the convection.
In other words, the vertical and horizontal distribution of convective heating is essential to the development and structure
of the eye.
Received December 18, 2001; accepted May 7, 2002
Published online: March 20, 2003 相似文献
9.
Summary The National Hurricane Center and Joint Typhoon Warning Center operational tropical cyclone intensity forecasts for the three
major northern hemisphere tropical cyclone basins (Atlantic, eastern North Pacific, and western North Pacific) for the past
two decades are examined for long-term trends. Results show that there has been some marginal improvement in the mean absolute
error at 24 and 48 h for the Atlantic and at 72 h for the east and west Pacific. A new metric that measures the percent variance
of the observed intensity changes that is reduced by the forecast (variance reduction, VR) is defined to help account for
inter-annual variability in forecast difficulty. Results show that there have been significant improvements in the VR of the
official forecasts in the Atlantic, and some marginal improvement in the other two basins. The VR of the intensity guidance
models was also examined. The improvement in the VR is due to the implementation of advanced statistical intensity prediction
models and the operational version of the GFDL hurricane model in the mid-1990s. The skill of the operational intensity forecasts
for the 5-year period ending in 2005 was determined by comparing the errors to those from simple statistical models with input
from climatology and persistence. The intensity forecasts had significant skill out to 96 h in the Atlantic and out to 72 h
in the east and west Pacific. The intensity forecasts are also compared to the operational track forecasts. The skill was
comparable at 12 h, but the track forecasts were 2 to 5 times more skillful by 72 h. The track and intensity forecast error
trends for the two-decade period were also compared. Results showed that the percentage track forecast improvement was almost
an order of magnitude larger than that for intensity, indicating that intensity forecasting still has much room for improvement. 相似文献
10.
M. Abdel Wahab H. Abdel Basset A. M. Lasheen 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2002,81(1-2):103-127
Summary ?This work is concerned with the behavior of the vertical trough axis tilt during the development of a Mediterranean cyclone.
The period covering stages of the development of the depression is from 1200 UTC 18 January to 1200 UTC 25 January 1981. Two
procedures have been used to illustrate the behavior of the vertical axis tilt with the development of our case study. In
the first direct procedure we trace the centers of the cyclone for each level for each day and determine its longitude. In
the second indirect procedure we compute the values and signs of the product of the perturbation of temperature and meridional
velocity over the computational domain. The energetics of the depression is studied and the partition of available potential
energy and kinetic energy into zonal and eddy component is adopted. The energy contents and their changes in different atmospheric
levels are discussed in the course of the cyclone’s development.
Received April 27, 2001; Revised December 12, 2001 相似文献
11.
登陆台风Winnie(1997)的数值模拟研究Ⅰ:结果检验和云系的模拟 总被引：22，自引：8，他引：22
用非静力平衡的中尺度模式MM5 (V2 )对 1997年 11号台风Winnie在登陆后演变为温带气旋的过程进行了48h模拟。结果表明 :MM 5不仅比较好地模拟出台风在陆地上的移动路径及其产生的降水 ,而且成功地模拟出了台风登陆后次中心的产生。利用模拟大气中的水物质 (云水、雨水、冰晶、雪水和霰 )模拟了台风云图 ,很好地展示了在卫星实际观测的红外云图上 ,Winnie台风在登陆后其云系的结构从热带气旋的螺旋结构到温带气旋的锋面云系结构的转变过程。因此对Winnie台风的数值模拟可以作为深入研究台风登陆后从热带气旋演变为温带气旋的变性过程的基础。 相似文献
12.
13.
大地形上空偶极子东移对热带气旋路径的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
With a quasi-geostrophic barotropic model on the β-plane with a topography term, 16 experiments were performed with an integration period of 6 days. The interaction between tropical cyclone tracks and 500 kin-scale vortices originating from the western part ora large-scale topography is investigated. It is suggested that this kind of interaction may have a significant impact on the moving speed and direction of tropical cyclones. Under certain conditions, this interaction may be a factor in causing an abnormal tropical cyclone track. Furthermore, the effect of large-scale topography plays an important role in the formation of unusual tropical cyclone tracks. 相似文献
14.
15.
以神经网络方法为基础,建立西北太平洋热带气旋强度预测模型,模型首先进行历史相似热带气旋选择。从选择的样本出发,计算得到一组气候持续因子、天气学经验因子和动力学因子, 对这些因子采用逐步回归方法进行筛选,将筛选得到的因子同对应时效的热带气旋强度输入神经网络训练模块,从而得到优化的预测模型。从2004-2005年西北太平洋26个热带气旋过程对12,24,36,48,72h等不同预报时效分别进行的634,582,530,478,426次预测试验结果的统计来看,相对于线性回归模型预测水平,该模型显著降低了各时段的预测误差。从几个热带气旋个例的预测结果来看, 该模型对超强台风, 以及具有强度迅速加强、再次加强等特征的热带气旋过程均有很好的描述能力。 相似文献
16.
The climatology of near-equatorial typhoons over the western-north
Pacific are fully investigated using the JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
typhoon record from 1951 to 2006. The result shows that there are seasonal and
decadal variations, as well as a distinctive spatial distribution, of such
events. Among them, Typhoon Vamei is an example of a near-equatorial typhoon
that occurred near Singapore in December of 2001. Using the WRF (Weather and
Research Forecast) model, we attempt to find out how the well known ``wind
surge" of this event contributes to the development of Typhoon Vamei. It is
found that the strong wind surge not only helps to provide advection of
positive vorticity to Vamei between 800 and 500 hPa, but also increases the
convective instability of the lower troposphere, and thus helps to induce
convective outbreaks and rapid intensification. Furthermore, sensitivity
experiments show that terrain and the land-sea distribution have very limited
effects on the formation of Typhoon Vamei in the simulation, but an adequate
Coriolis parameter ($f)$ is still needed for the development of Vamei. 相似文献
17.
K. Prasad 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2006,91(1-4):183-199
Summary Results of an earlier study of cyclone track prediction using a quasi-Lagrangian model (QLM) to generate track forecasts of
up to 36 hours were reported by Prasad and Rama Rao (2003). Further experiments to produce track forecasts of up to 72 hours
with an updated version of the same model have been carried out in the present study. In this case, the ability of the model
to predict recent historical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea has been assessed. Analysis of some of the structural
features of analyzed and predicted fields has been carried out. Such fields include wind distribution and vertical motion
around the cyclone centre. In addition, the merging of an idealized vortex with the large scale initial fields provided by
a global model, has been carried out for a particular case study of a May 1997 storm, which hit the Bangladesh coast. This
current study has demonstrated that the model generates a realistic structure of a tropical cyclone with an idealized vortex.
Performance evaluation has been carried out by computing the direct position errors (DPE). The results of which show that
the mean error for a 24 h forecast is about 122 km, which increases to about 256 km for a 48 h forecast and 286 km for a 72 h
forecast. These figures are comparable to similar errors in respect of tropical cyclone forecasts produced by an advanced
NWP centre, viz., the UKMO global model during the corresponding period, 1997–2000 (obtained from UKMO web site). The average
forecast errors of the UKMO model are 160 km for 24 h, 265 km for 48 h, 415 km for 72 h forecast ranges. 相似文献
18.
Numerical simulation of a heavy rainfall event in China during July 1998 总被引：16，自引：0，他引：16
Summary A detailed analysis associated with this case has been carried out (Zhao et al., 2001). In order to conduct further research
on the meso-β scale system, which is the directly influencing system, the heavy rainfall that occurred in Wuhan (Station no.:
57494) and Huangshi (Station no.: 58407), Hubei Province during July 1998 are simulated using higher resolution and more complete
initial data, after the large scale fields and rainfall areas have been simulated successfully. The simulation results indicate
that there are meso-β scale weather systems which developed and dissipated near Wuhan and Huangshi during 1800 UTC 20 July
to 0600 UTC 21 July and 1800 UTC 21 July to 0600 UTC 22 July in 1998, respectively. The life cycle of the meso-scale system
is about 12 hours and its horizontal scale is from 100 to 200 km. These are characteristic of a typical meso-β scale system.
By analyzing the vertical section of wind field and other physical variables during the mentioned-above two periods, it is
found that horizontal convergence, ascending motion and positive vorticity of the middle and lower troposphere are strengthened
during the heavy rainfall periods near the above mentioned two places. In addition, the wind disturbance in middle and lower
troposphere may be a possible triggering mechanism for the occurrence of the meso-β weather system. A budget analysis of the
meso-scale system indicates that the sources of moisture and positive vorticity are different during the different stages
of the meso-scale systems. Finally, a three dimensional conceptual model of the meso-β scale systems causing the sudden heavy
rainfall in Wuhan and Huangshi is suggested.
Received November 4, 2001 Revised December 28, 2001 相似文献
19.
2002年西北太平洋和南海热带气旋路径主客观预报评价 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
利用目前中央气象台热带气旋路径实时业务预报中使用的各种主客观预报产品资料,对2002年西北太平洋和南海热带气旋路径实时业务预报中的主客观预报进行对比分析检验。结果显示：虽然在整体上主观预报要优于客观模式的结果,但客观模式的预报能力已接近主观预报,有时甚至还好于主观预报,特别是48小时以上时效的客观模式较主观预报具有一定的优势;而在客观模式中,全球模式优于台风模式;热带气旋路径数值模式产品的使用对提高热带气旋路径业务预报水平具有十分重要的作用。 相似文献
20.
Sensitivity of physical parameterizations on prediction of tropical cyclone Nargis over the Bay of Bengal using WRF model 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
P. V. S. Raju Jayaraman Potty U. C. Mohanty 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2011,113(3-4):125-137
Comprehensive sensitivity analyses on physical parameterization schemes of Weather Research Forecast (WRF-ARW core) model have been carried out for the prediction of track and intensity of tropical cyclones by taking the example of cyclone Nargis, which formed over the Bay of Bengal and hit Myanmar on 02 May 2008, causing widespread damages in terms of human and economic losses. The model performances are also evaluated with different initial conditions of 12?h intervals starting from the cyclogenesis to the near landfall time. The initial and boundary conditions for all the model simulations are drawn from the global operational analysis and forecast products of National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-GFS) available for the public at 1° lon/lat resolution. The results of the sensitivity analyses indicate that a combination of non-local parabolic type exchange coefficient PBL scheme of Yonsei University (YSU), deep and shallow convection scheme with mass flux approach for cumulus parameterization (Kain-Fritsch), and NCEP operational cloud microphysics scheme with diagnostic mixed phase processes (Ferrier), predicts better track and intensity as compared against the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimates. Further, the final choice of the physical parameterization schemes selected from the above sensitivity experiments is used for model integration with different initial conditions. The results reveal that the cyclone track, intensity and time of landfall are well simulated by the model with an average intensity error of about 8?hPa, maximum wind error of 12?m?s?1and track error of 77?km. The simulations also show that the landfall time error and intensity error are decreasing with delayed initial condition, suggesting that the model forecast is more dependable when the cyclone approaches the coast. The distribution and intensity of rainfall are also well simulated by the model and comparable with the TRMM estimates. 相似文献