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1.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2018,350(7):442-447
The Montreal Protocol has controlled the production and consumption of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) since its signing in 1987. The levels of most of these ODSs are now declining in the atmosphere, and there are now initial signs that ozone levels are increasing in the stratosphere. Scientific challenges remain for the Montreal Protocol. The science community projected large ozone losses if ODSs continued to increase, and that ozone levels would increase if ODSs were controlled and their levels declined. Scientists remain accountable for these projections, while they continue to refine their scientific basis. The science community remains vigilant for emerging threats to the ozone layer and seeks scientific evidence that demonstrates compliance with Montreal Protocol. As ODSs decrease, the largest impact on stratospheric ozone by the end of the 21st century will be increases in greenhouse gases. The associated climate forcings, and the human responses to these forcings, represent major uncertainties for the future of the stratospheric ozone layer. 相似文献
2.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2018,350(7):403-409
The stratospheric ozone layer is expected to recover as a result of the regulations of the Montreal Protocol on chlorine and bromine containing ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Model simulations project a return of global annually averaged total column ozone to 1980 levels before the middle of the 21st century, well before the ODSs will return to 1980 levels. This earlier ozone return date is due to the effects of rising greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. GHGs influence ozone directly by chemical reactions, but also indirectly by changing stratospheric temperature and the Brewer–Dobson circulation. Based on projections of chemistry–climate models, this article summarizes the effects of GHGs on stratospheric and total column ozone in the mid-latitude upper stratosphere, Arctic and Antarctic spring, and the tropics. The sensitivity of future ozone change to the GHG scenario is discussed, as well as the specific role of a future increase in nitrous oxide and methane. 相似文献
3.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2018,350(7):384-392
The atmospheric observations of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) have been essential for following their atmospheric response to the production and use restrictions imposed by the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments and Adjustments. ODSs have been used since the first half of the 20th century in industrial and domestic applications. However, their atmospheric growth went unnoticed until the early 1970s, when they were discovered using gas chromatograph-electron capture detection (GC-ECD) instruments. Similar instrumentation formed the basis of global flask and in situ measurements commenced by NOAA and ALE/GAGE/AGAGE in the late 1970s. The combination of these networks, supported by a number of other laboratories, has been essential for following the tropospheric trends of ODSs. Additionally, ground-based remote sensing measurements within NDACC and aircraft-based observation programs have been crucial for measuring the evolution of the ODS abundances over the entire atmosphere. Maintaining these networks at least at their current state is vital for ensuring the on-going verification of the success of the Montreal Protocol. 相似文献
4.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2018,350(7):354-367
In the 1980s, ground-based monitoring of the ozone layer played a key role in the discovery of the Antarctic Ozone Hole as well as in the first documentation of significant winter and spring long-term downward trends in the populated mid-latitude regions. The article summarizes the close-to-hundred-year-long history of ground-based measurements of stratospheric ozone, and more recent observations of constituents that influence its equilibrium. Ozone observations began long before the recognition of the impact of increasing emissions of manmade ozone-depleting substances on ozone and therefore on UV levels, human health, ecosystems and the Earth climate. The historical ozone observations prior to 1980s are used as a reference for the assessments of the state of the ozone layer linked to the enforcement of the Montreal Protocol. In this paper, we describe the worldwide monitoring networks and their ozone observations used to determine long-term trends with an accuracy of a few percent per decade. Since 1989, the ground-based monitoring activities have provided support for the amendments of the Montreal Protocol (MP). They include monitoring of (a) the ozone total column and the vertical distribution at global scale, (b) the ozone-depleting substances (ODS) related to the MP such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and their decomposition products in the stratosphere, and (c) the atmospheric species playing a role in ozone depletion, e.g., nitrogen oxides, water vapor, aerosols, polar stratospheric clouds. We highlight important accomplishments in the atmospheric monitoring performed by the Global Atmosphere Watch program (GAW) run under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). We also address the complementary roles of ground-based networks and satellite instruments. High-quality ground-based measurements have been used to evaluate ozone variabilities and long-term trends, assess chemistry climate models, and check the long-term stability of satellite data, including more recently the merged satellite time-series developed for the detection of ozone recovery at global scale, which might be further modified by climate change. 相似文献
5.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2018,350(7):376-383
Although catalytic chemistry involving ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) is currently a primary driver impacting the abundance of stratospheric ozone, water vapor and aerosols are constituents that also affect stratospheric ozone. Variability in both water vapor and aerosols can induce variability in ozone, and although small relative to that due to trends in ODSs, in the future may become a much more important source of ozone variability. 相似文献
6.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2018,350(7):368-375
Thanks to the Montreal Protocol, the stratospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting chlorine and bromine have been declining since their peak in the late 1990s. Global ozone has responded: The substantial ozone decline observed since the 1960s ended in the late 1990s. Since then, ozone levels have remained low, but have not declined further. Now general ozone increases and a slow recovery of the ozone layer is expected. The clearest signs of increasing ozone, so far, are seen in the upper stratosphere and for total ozone columns above Antarctica in spring. These two regions had also seen the largest ozone depletions in the past. Total column ozone at most latitudes, however, does not show clear increases yet. This is not unexpected, because the removal of chlorine and bromine from the stratosphere is three to four times slower than their previous increase. Detecting significant increases in total column ozone, therefore, will require much more time than the detection of its previous decline. The search is complicated by variations in ozone that are not caused by declining chlorine or bromine, but are due, e.g., to transport changes in the global Brewer–Dobson circulation. Also, very accurate observations are necessary to detect the expected small increases. Nevertheless, observations and model simulations indicate that the stratosphere is on the path to ozone recovery. This recovery process will take many decades. As chlorine and bromine decline, other factors will become more important. These include climate change and its effects on stratospheric temperatures, changes in the Brewer–Dobson circulation (both due to increasing CO2), increasing emissions of trace gases like N2O, CH4, possibly large future increases of short-lived substances (like CCl2H2) from both natural and anthropogenic sources, and changes in tropospheric ozone. 相似文献
7.
Zia Ul-Haq Muhammad Ali Syeda Adila Batool Salman Tariq Zarmina Qayyum 《Journal of Earth System Science》2016,125(6):1273-1284
An integrated assessment of emissions of some important refrigerant ozone depleting substances (ODSs) (CFC-11, CFC-12, HCFC-141b and HFC-134a) and their contributed ozone depletion potentials (ODPs) and global warming potentials (GWPs) have been made in the megacity Lahore (Pakistan) for the period from 2005 to 2013. During the production of 6.488 million refrigerator units, the cumulative estimated emissions of CFC-11, CFC-12, HCFC-141b and HFC-134a were 129.7, 6.8, 1257 and 104 mega grams (1 Mg = 106 grams). The estimated GWP (CO2-eq) and ODP (CFC 11-eq) associated with production phase emissions of these four gases were 616.07, 73.52, 910.96, and 87.36 kilotonnes, and 129.7, 6.8, 139.4, and 0 tonnes, respectively. ODP of HFC-134a is considered to be zero. In addition, the repair and maintenance of 81.2 thousand units resulted in 10.8 Mg emissions of CFC-12 with 10.8 tonnes ODP(CFC 11-eq) and 117,802 tonnes GWP (CO2-eq) that were higher than the HFC-134a emissions recorded at 4.3 Mg causing 4563 tonnes GWP(CO2-eq). A decrease in ODP (CFC 11-eq) and GWP (CO2-eq) at the rate of ?8.3% and ?8.2% per year is observed to be contributed by all the selected ODSs during the study period. 相似文献
8.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2018,350(7):425-431
Scientific discoveries, national regulations, and international agreements impact our lives. If we bring all three together in a solid but flexible governance structure, then we are able to address those impacts and share more evenly their consequences across different nations. This is what the Montreal Protocol has done in its 30 years of life and will continue to do thanks to the recent Kigali Amendment. There are many lessons for diplomacy to be drawn from the recent negotiations, including the critical role of science. The most important lesson in reaching consensus is the injection of optimism, pride, ownership of the process, and building trust among all nations. The solid yet flexible foundation of the Montreal Protocol provided a firm grounding for the Kigali negotiations to experiment with the different negotiating techniques in a forum where countries, industry, non-governmental organizations, and scientists are brought together by the United Nations. 相似文献
9.
通过对云南寻甸XR1石笋进行TIMS-U系测年、氧碳同位素和沉积速率变化分析,重建了寻甸地区中全新世季风气候演化模式:(1)8.0～6.0 ka BP为温暖湿润期;(2)6.0～5.1 ka BP为气候突变期,温湿向冷干转变;(3)5.1～2.1 ka BP为气候恢复期,气候从冷干逐渐恢复到中全新世正常的气候水平.XR... 相似文献
10.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – comprised of top climate scientists from around the globe – has reached consensus that human activities have contributed significantly to global climate change. However, over time, the United States has refused to join concerted international efforts – such as the Kyoto Protocol – to curb human activities contributing to climate change. US newspaper and television media constitute key influences among a set of complex dynamics shaping information dissemination in this politicized environment. Mass-media coverage of climate change is not simply a random amalgam of newspaper articles and television segments; rather, it is a social relationship between scientists, policy actors and the public that is mediated by such news packages. This paper demonstrates that consistent adherence to interacting journalistic norms has contributed to impediments in the coverage of anthropogenic climate change science. Through analysis of US newspaper and television coverage of human contributions to climate change from 1988 through 2004, this paper finds that adherence to first-order journalistic norms – personalization, dramatization, and novelty – significantly influence the employment of second-order norms – authority-order and balance – and that this has led to informationally deficient mass-media coverage of this crucial issue. By critically scrutinizing US print and television media as a ‘public arena,’ we improve understanding of how journalistic activities have shaped interactions at the interface with climate science, policy and the public. 相似文献
11.
The issue of the social geographical dimensions of climate change is timely and important. This paper sets out to explore one example of this: how people living in the Pacific who are most at risk of being made landless by climate change are portrayed in policy discourse, and how high-level international representatives of Pacific nations have responded to these portrayals. At the heart of this is contention over the portrayal of Pacific Island peoples as ‘climate refugees’. This paper analyses a number of documents since the 1980s, largely from non-governmental organisations (NGOs) that deploy the identity construct of ‘climate refugees’. Fieldwork undertaken at the United Nations in New York in 2004 also enabled seven interviews with national ambassadors representing Pacific small island states. Interviews revealed how Pacific ambassadors have responded to the category of ‘climate refugees’, and positioned themselves in the discursive field surrounding the climate change debate. A poststructuralist framework, drawing on Foucault’s ideas of discourse and subject categories provided a means to critically scrutinise and better understand how people from Pacific countries are imagined in the wider, global geopolitical arena, but crucially, how leaders from these nations also construct themselves in relation to climate change and its associated impacts. 相似文献
12.
《Geoforum》2014
This article contributes to the study of changing climate discourse and policy in emerging powers through a case study of climate discourse in India since 2007. Based on interviews with key actors in Indian climate politics and textual analysis, three general climate discourses – the Third World, Win–Win and Radical Green discourses – are identified. The discourses are characterised by different constructions of India’s identity, interests, climate change exposure and climate policy orientation. At the most general level, the article finds that there has been a general discursive shift from the Third World discourse to the Win–Win discourse, and that the latter discourse is in broad agreement with the dominant international climate change discourse of ecological modernisation and thus supports an alignment between Indian and international climate politics. We also find, however, that India’s domestic climate politics is marked by co-existence and tensions between the three climate discourses, producing a complex and at times contentious discursive politics over climate change, identity and development. The case study presented in this article moreover demonstrates how national interests are socially constructed and how changes in policy reflect changes in the dominant discourse. 相似文献
13.
《Geoforum》2016
This article adopts a “capabilities” approach to climate justice to examine a globally unique phenomenon: a decade of unprecedented surface area growth in Lake Azuéi (the largest lake in Haiti) and Lake Enriquillo in the Dominican Republic (the largest lake in the Caribbean region). The objective was to explore how two neighbouring communities and their governments respond to large-scale environmental change within connected but uneven political ecological contexts. Current climate change impacts in this bi-national island present an opportunity to better understand not only local climate justice but also how fragmented sovereignty, territoriality, and citizenship regimes may affect processes of climate adaptation. The researchers conducted 27 semi-structured interviews in the Dominican Republic and 11 in Haiti, with open ended questions. The data analysis explores impacts of the lakes’ growth; perceived causes and solutions; access to assistance; views on responsibility; and capacities for mobilization, bi-national cooperation, and international partnerships. The article argues that different capabilities for climate adaptation are shaped by historical path dependencies, local institutional contexts, and international linkages; and that attaining climate justice requires attention to these factors within a collective normative framework. The conclusion examines how climate science, research partnerships, and citizen participation might be leveraged to help build binational adaptation strategies grounded in a capabilities approach to climate justice. 相似文献
14.
关于福建水口库区地质灾害及防灾减灾的探讨 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文着重论述福建水口库区斜坡地质灾害、水库坍岸和地面不均匀沉降的成因及主要控制影响因素。通过对该区地质、地貌、气象、水文条件和人类工程活动的分析，探讨了这些地质灾害的发展趋势及危险程度，进而提出了本区地质灾害防灾减灾的思路。 相似文献
15.
盐湖／湖泊是气候变化的一面镜子本文以国内外典型盐湖区地质灾害为案例。说明自然引起的盐湖地质灾害，人类在事先监测而掌握其变化趋势情况下，可趋利避害，减少损失程度。文中分析在中国西部气候可能由暖干向暖湿转型的情势下，中国盐湖的变化趋势，并就其近期湖水涨缩特点划分3种类型(湖水上涨型区、湖水下降型区和湖水上涨不稳区)。为了适应中国盐湖区气候一湖泊变化，提出在重要盐湖区增建和完善水文、气象观察站，并与遥感监测相结合；建立多学科、跨部门的近期西部盐湖区环境变化的重大基础项目。同时需在重点盐湖区增设防洪防旱水利设施工程、制定湖区生态保护措施等，在筑建盐田和基建工程时应充分考虑洪水泛滥的影响。 相似文献
16.
《Earth》2007,80(1-2):111-136
Numerous authors have utilised physical properties of Chinese loess and red clay deposits to develop apparently detailed and continuous past climate records from the Miocene into the Holocene. Many of these studies have further suggested that the principal climatic agent responsible for the aeolian emplacement and diagenesis of Chinese loess, the East Asian Monsoon, has fluctuated rapidly on millennial to sub-millennial timescales, in concert with dramatic changes in the North Atlantic (Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles and Heinrich events) and the Western Pacific (El Niño Southern Oscillation). Much of this evidence is based on reconstructions and age models that are tied to assumptions concerning the nature of loess sedimentation and diagenesis, for example, the belief that loess sedimentation can be viewed as essentially continuous. Some authors have however, cast doubt on these assumptions and suggest that the application of radiometric techniques may be required to determine their validity. Recent studies utilising Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) methods have reinforced these doubts and here, OSL dates obtained at 10 cm intervals from three sites along a transect across the Chinese Loess Plateau have been used, in combination with climate proxy evidence, to test the existing assumptions that underpin many palaeoclimatic reconstructions from loess. In this way, the first time-continuous and independently dated late Quaternary climate reconstruction is developed from loess. The data indicate that sedimentation is episodic and that once emplaced, loess is prone to pedogenic disturbance, diagenetic modification and in some cases erosion. The relationships between proxies and sedimentation rates are also assessed and climatic interpretations based on different age models compared. The implications of these findings for reconstructions of climate from loess are explored and comparisons are made between the developed palaeoclimate records and evidence from ice and ocean cores. This exercise also highlights important information concerning the relative influence of forcing mechanisms behind East Asian Monsoon change over the late Quaternary. 相似文献
17.
In evaluating potential impacts of climate change on water resources, water managers seek to understand how future conditions may differ from the recent past. Studies of climate impacts on groundwater recharge often compare simulated recharge from future and historical time periods on an average monthly or overall average annual basis, or compare average recharge from future decades to that from a single recent decade. Baseline historical recharge estimates, which are compared with future conditions, are often from simulations using observed historical climate data. Comparison of average monthly results, average annual results, or even averaging over selected historical decades, may mask the true variability in historical results and lead to misinterpretation of future conditions. Comparison of future recharge results simulated using general circulation model (GCM) climate data to recharge results simulated using actual historical climate data may also result in an incomplete understanding of the likelihood of future changes. In this study, groundwater recharge is estimated in the upper Colorado River basin, USA, using a distributed-parameter soil-water balance groundwater recharge model for the period 1951–2010. Recharge simulations are performed using precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature data from observed climate data and from 97 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) projections. Results indicate that average monthly and average annual simulated recharge are similar using observed and GCM climate data. However, 10-year moving-average recharge results show substantial differences between observed and simulated climate data, particularly during period 1970–2000, with much greater variability seen for results using observed climate data. 相似文献
18.
The questions of how land use change affects climate, and how climate change affects land use, require examination of societal and environmental systems across space at multiple scales, from the global climate to regional vegetative dynamics to local decision making by farmers and herders. It also requires an analysis of causal linkages and feedback loops between systems. These questions and the conceptual approach of the research design of the Climate-Land Interaction Project (CLIP) are rooted in the classical human-environment research tradition in Geography.This paper discusses a methodological framework to quantify the two-way interactions between land use and regional climate systems, using ongoing work by a team of multi-disciplinary scientists examining climate-land dynamics at multiple scales in East Africa. East Africa is a region that is undergoing rapid land use change, where changes in climate would have serious consequences for people’s livelihoods, and requiring new coping and land use strategies. The research involves exploration of linkages between two important foci of global change research, namely, land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change. These linkages are examined through modeling agricultural systems, land use driving forces and patterns, the physical properties of land cover, and the regional climate. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are being used to illustrate a diverse pluralism in scientific discovery. 相似文献
19.
K. Mills P. Gell J. Gergis P. J. Baker C. M. Finlayson P. P. Hesse 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(5):561-571
The management of the water resources of the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) has long been contested, and the effects of the recent Millennium drought and subsequent flooding events have generated acute contests over the appropriate allocation of water supplies to agricultural, domestic and environmental uses. This water-availability crisis has driven demand for improved knowledge of climate change trends, cycles of variability, the range of historical climates experienced by natural systems and the ecological health of the system relative to a past benchmark. A considerable volume of research on the past climates of southeastern Australia has been produced over recent decades, but much of this work has focused on longer geological time-scales, and is of low temporal resolution. Less evidence has been generated of recent climate change at the level of resolution that accesses the cycles of change relevant to management. Intra-decadal and near-annual resolution (high-resolution) records do exist and provide evidence of climate change and variability, and of human impact on systems, relevant to natural-resource management. There exist now many research groups using a range of proxy indicators of climate that will rapidly escalate our knowledge of management-relevant, climate change and variability. This review assembles available climate and catchment change research within, and in the vicinity of, the MDB and portrays the research activities that are responding to the knowledge need. It also discusses how paleoclimate scientists may better integrate their pursuits into the resource-management realm to enhance the utility of the science, the effectiveness of the management measures and the outcomes for the end users. 相似文献
20.
We tackle here the question of past and future climate change at sub-regional or country scale with the example of France. We assess France climate evolution during the 20th and 21st century as simulated by an exhaustive range of global climate simulations. We first show that the large observed warming of the last 30 years can be simulated only if anthropogenic forcings are taken into account. We also suggest that human influence could have made a substantial contribution to the observed 20th century multi-decadal temperature fluctuations. We then show that France averaged annual mean temperature at the end of the 21st century is projected to be on the order of 4.5 K warmer than in the early 20th century under the radiative concentration pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Summer changes are greater than their winter counterpart (6 K versus 3.7 K). Near-future (2020–2049) changes are on the order of 2.1 K (with 2.6 K in summer and 1.8 K in winter). Model projections also suggest a substantial summer precipitation decrease (−0.6 mm/day), in particular over southern France, and a moderate winter increase, (0.3 mm/day), mostly over the northernmost part of France. Uncertainties about the amplitude of these precipitation changes remain large. We then quantify the various sources of uncertainty and study how their ranking varies with time. We also propose a physically-based metric approach to reduce model uncertainty and illustrate it with the case of summer temperature changes. Finally, timing and amplitude of France climate change in case of a global average 2-K warming are investigated. Aggressive mitigation pathways (such as RCP2.6) are absolutely required to avoid crossing or barely exceeding the 2-K global threshold. However, France climate change requiring adaptation measures is still to be expected even if we achieve to remain below the 2-K global target. 相似文献