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1.
RegCM3对中国淮河流域降水模拟能力的检验及分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
检验了区域气候模式RegCM3(Regional Climate Model version3)对中国淮河流域(30°55′—36°36′N,111°55′—121°25′E)1982—2001年夏季降水及大尺度环流场的模拟能力,并选取降水明显偏多的2003年夏季为个例,评估了RegCM3模式对该年淮河流域夏季降水的集合模拟能力。模拟的20a降水的空间分布与实测资料对比表明,RegCM3成功地模拟出了淮河流域夏季降水的空间分布和年际变化;通过分析对比RegCM3模拟出的低层850hPa流场结构和水汽输送状况与实测情况,可知RegCM3能模拟出低层流场结构的大致分布和水汽输送特点,但模拟所得风速和湿度均比实况偏大。对2003年淮河流域夏季降水的集合模拟结果表明,RegCM3对中小尺度极端强降水的降水量和降水中心的模拟能力尚有待进一步提高。 相似文献
2.
MM5BATS对东亚夏季气候及其变化的模拟试验 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
将陆面过程模式BATS耦合到中尺度模式MM5V3中与另一区域气候模式RegCM2一起对1995—2000年夏季东亚的区域气候作了模拟试验,并与实际资料作了比较。模拟试验结果表明：(1)两个模式均能较合理地模拟出6年夏季平均的环流、温度和海平面气压等的变化,MM5BATS的模拟结果要略优于RegCM2的结果;(2)MM5BATS模式较合理地模拟出了6年夏季平均的降水分布,而RegCM2模式的模拟结果偏强;(3)MM5BATS模式较好地模拟出了1997年和1998年夏季环流场的变化,对降水的模拟也比较合理。RegCM2对1997年和1998年降水的模拟基本上都偏强。模拟试验结果还表明,在区域气候模拟中有必要采用更新的模式。 相似文献
3.
土地利用变化对长江流域气候及水文过程影响的敏感性研究 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
使用区域气候模式(RegCM3)和大尺度汇流模型(LRM), 研究土地利用/植被覆盖变化对长江流域气候及水文过程的影响。RegCM3嵌套于欧洲数值预报中心 (ECMWF) 再分析资料ERA40, 分别进行了中国区域在实际植被和理想植被分布情况下两个各15年 (1987～2001年) 时间长度的积分试验。随后, RegCM3 两个试验的输出径流结果分别用来驱动LRM, 研究土地利用/植被覆盖变化对长江流域河川径流的影响。研究结果指出, 中国当代土地利用变化对长江流域降水、蒸散发、径流深及河川径流等水文气候要素的改变较大, 对气温的改变并不明显。土地利用变化引起长江干流河川径流量在夏季(6～8月)有所增加, 并且越向下游增加幅度越大, 其中大通站径流量增加接近15%。总体而言, 土地利用改变加剧了长江流域夏季水循环过程, 使得夏季长江中下游地区降水增多, 径流增大。 相似文献
4.
RegCM3对山东夏季气候高分辨率模拟 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
利用区域气候模式RegCM3及NCEP/DOE再分析资料,对山东地区1985-2000年夏季区域气候变化进行了高分辨率(20 km)的数值模拟试验.通过对模拟结果和山东地区较密集的观测资料的比较分析,检验了模式在该地区的模拟能力.结果表明:(1)区域气候模式RegCM3能够合理地模拟出山东区域中高层的主要环流特征;(2)数值模拟能够合理再现山东地区16 a夏季平均降水南高北低和地面气温西高东低的主要分布特征.同时也能够合理地模拟出1990和1998年山东地区夏季强降水的主要特征,以及1992和1999年的干旱;(3) 模式结果较好地反映了1985-2000年16 a夏季山东地区降水和地面气温变率的主要特征. 相似文献
5.
A regional atmosphere-ocean coupled model,RegCM3-POM,was developed by coupling the regional climate model(RegCM3) with the Princeton Ocean Model(POM).The performance of RegCM3-POM in simulating a persistent snow storm over southern China and the impact of the Madden-Julian oscillation(MJO) on this persistent snow storm were investigated.Compared with the stand-alone RegCM3,the coupled model performed better at reproducing the spatial-temporal evolution and intensity of the precipitation episodes.The power spectral analysis indicated that the coupled model successfully captured the dominant period between 30 and 60 days in the precipitation field,leading to a notable improvement in simulating the magnitude of intraseasonal precipitation variation,and further in enhancing the intensity of the simulated precipitation.These improvements were mainly due to the well-simulated low-frequency oscillation center and its eastward propagation characteristics in each MJO phase by RegCM3-POM,which improved the simulations of MJO-related low-frequency vertical motions,water vapor transport,and the deep inversion layer that can directly influence the precipitation event and that further improved the simulated MJOprecipitation relationship.Analysis of the phase relationship between convection and SST indicated that RegCM3-POM exhibits a near-quadrature relation between the simulated convection and SST anomalies,which was consistent with the observations.However,such a near-quadrature relation was not as significant when the stand-alone RegCM3 was used.This difference indicated that the inherent coupled feedback process between the ocean and atmosphere in RegCM3-POM played an important part in reproducing the features of the MJO that accompanied the snow storm. 相似文献
6.
Evaluation and Analysis of RegCM3 Simulated Summer Rainfall over the Huaihe River Basin of China 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3 
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下载免费PDF全文 This study evaluates the ability of the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics(ICTP)version 3 Regional Climate Model(RegCM3) in simulating the summer rainfall amount and distribution and large-scale circulation over the Huaihe River basin of China.We conducted the simulation for the period of 1982-2001 and the wet year of 2003 to test the ensemble simulation capacity of RegCM3.First,by comparing the simulated rainfall amount and distribution against the observations,it is found that RegCM3 can reproduce the rainfall pattern and its annual variations.In addition,the simulated spatial patterns of 850-hPa wind and specific humidity fields are close to the observations,although the wind speed and humidity values are larger.Finally,the ensemble simulation of RegCM3 for summer 2003 failed to capture the spatial distribution and underestimated the magnitude of the precipitation anomalies,and the reasons are analyzed. 相似文献
7.
陆面过程模型CoLM与区域气候模式RegCM3的耦合及初步评估 总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4
陆面过程通过影响陆面和大气之间物质（如,水分）和能量的交换影响气候, 其参数化方案对数值天气预报、全球及区域气候模拟有重要影响。本研究利用对生物物理、生物化学过程考虑更全面的陆面模式Common Land Model(CoLM) 替代区域气候模式RegCM3原有的陆面模式BATS, 发展了耦合区域气候模式C－RegCM3; 将其应用于东亚地区典型洪涝年份夏季气候模拟以进行评估, 结果表明新耦合的模式C－RegCM3能合理模拟大尺度环流场、近地表气温和降水的分布特征, 对西北半干旱地区降水模拟比RegCM3有所改进。通过利用区域气候模式C－RegCM3及RegCM3对地表能量和水文过程模拟结果的比较, 发现在半干旱、半湿润过渡区C－RegCM3模拟的潜热增大、感热减小; 模拟的地表吸收太阳辐射差异较明显的地区位于模式模拟的主要雨区; C-RegCM3在上述过渡区模拟的夏季地表土壤湿度比RegCM3偏干, 这与它在过渡区降水模拟偏少、蒸散发模拟偏大相对应, 体现了该模式在半干旱、半湿润过渡带模拟出比RegCM3更明显的局地土壤湿度－降水－蒸散发之间的正反馈作用。 相似文献
8.
中国当代土地利用变化对黄河流域径流影响 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
使用区域气候模式(RegCM3)和大尺度汇流模型(LRM),研究中国地区土地利用/植被覆盖变化对黄河流域降雨径流过程的影响。RegCM3嵌套于欧洲数值预报中心(ECMWF)再分析资料ERA40,分别进行了中国区域在实际植被和理想植被分布情况下两个各15年(1987～2001年)时间长度的积分试验。随后,RegCM3 两个试验的输出径流结果分别用来驱动LRM。与观测资料的对比分析表明,在实际土地利用状况下,LRM能较好地模拟黄河河川径流的季节和年际变化。研究结果指出,当代土地利用引起了冬季黄河上游部分地区降水减少,中下游地区降水增加;引起夏季整个黄河流域降水的减少。总体来说,当代土地利用变化引起黄河流域年平均降水的减少。对于水文站河川径流量,除了冬春季略有增加外,其他月份河川径流均会减少,并且在9月减少最多。土地利用引起的植被退化造成黄河径流的大幅度减少,并且越向下游减少幅度越大,这可能是引起黄河下游断流的重要原因之一。 相似文献
9.
The authors investigate possible changes of monsoon rainfall and associated seasonal (June-JulyAugust) anomaly patterns over eastern China in the late 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 emission scenario as simulated by a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) nested in a general circulation model (FvGCM/CCM3).Two sets of multi-decadal simulations are performed at 20-km grid spacing for present day and future climate conditions.Results show that the RegCM3 reproduces the mean rainfall distribution;however the evolution of the monsoon rain belt from South China to North China is not well simulated.Concerning the rain pattern classifications,RegCM3 overestimates the occurrence of Pattern 1 (excessive rainfall in northern China) and underestimates that of Pattern 2 (increased rainfall over the Huai River basin).Under future climate conditions,RegCM3 projects less occurrence of Pattern 1,more of Pattern 2,and little change of Pattern 3 (rainfall increase along the Yangtze River).These results indicate that there might be increased rainfall over the Huai-Yellow River area and reduced rainfall over North China in the future,while rainfall over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin is not modified significantly.Uncertainties exist in the present study are also discussed. 相似文献
10.
将区域气候模式RegCM3与中国科学院大气物理研究所全球大气环流模式IAP9L-AGCM进行单向嵌套,建立嵌套区域气候模式RegCM3_IAP9L-AGCM,并利用该嵌套模式对1982—2001年中国夏季短期气候进行了跨季度集合回报试验。结果表明,RegCM3_IAP9L-AGCM对高空气候变量(500hPa位势高度场、200和850hPa纬向风场)的回报结果与实况距平相关系数(ACC)基本为正,其回报效果好于单独使用IAP9L-AGCM的结果。除850hPa纬向风场外,其他两个变量场回报与实况正相关的区域基本呈纬向带状分布且通过90%信度检验。在中国大部分地区(除长江下游、东北北部和西北北部外),嵌套区域气候模式回报的降水距平百分率与实况基本为正相关。RegCM3_IAP9L-AGCM和IAP9L-AGCM对中国不同区域的夏季降水回报效果不同,前者对华南降水的回报效果明显好于后者。 相似文献
11.
RegCM3模式对青藏高原温度和降水的模拟及检验 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
为了检验RegCM3区域气候模式对青藏高原地区的模拟能力,利用NCEP再分析资料和观测站点资料,采用三种不同的对流参数化方案,对青藏高原地区2006年夏季进行了模拟分析,并重点对温度和降水进行了细致的检验。结果表明：模式能较好地再现青藏高原地区大尺度的环流特征,具有对青藏高原地区的温度和降水分布特征的模拟能力;对于量值的模拟,三种对流参数化方案均模拟出了与实况温度一致的变化趋势,但均存在5~6 ℃的冷偏差;Grell方案模拟的降水量均大于实况,Kuo-Anthes方案对于高原地区的降水量的模拟较为接近于实况,但模式对降水量的模拟能力仍有待进一步提高。 相似文献
12.
WRF模式对青藏高原南坡夏季降水的模拟分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用中尺度数值模式WRF研究积云对流参数化方案、网格嵌套技术和模式分辨率对陡峭的青藏高原南坡夏季降水模拟的影响。对2006年7月青藏高原南坡地区降水的模拟分析表明:降水对积云对流参数化方案的选择很敏感,不同方案模拟的结果差异显著,采用Grell-Devenyi质量通量方案时的模拟效果优于其他方案。在此基础上,通过5种试验方案比较发现,使用积云对流参数化方案、提高模式分辨率和应用网格嵌套技术能改善降水强度和空间分布的模拟,组合使用时模拟的降水与观测资料更接近。它们均能改进风场,使得水汽的输送和辐合过程的模拟更加准确;还能影响大气的垂直加热状态,导致不同的对流发生,使垂直速度的分布趋于合理。未使用积云对流参数化方案时,大气湿度偏小,而模式分辨率和网格嵌套技术对大气湿度的影响不大。 相似文献
13.
The regional climate model (RegCM4) is customized for 10-year climate simulation over Indian region through sensitivity studies on cumulus convection and land surface parameterization schemes. The model is configured over 30° E–120° E and 15° S–45° N at 30-km horizontal resolution with 23 vertical levels. Six 10-year (1991–2000) simulations are conducted with the combinations of two land surface schemes (BATS, CLM3.5) and three cumulus convection schemes (Kuo, Grell, MIT). The simulated annual and seasonal climatology of surface temperature and precipitation are compared with CRU observations. The interannual variability of these two parameters is also analyzed. The results indicate that the model simulated climatology is sensitive to the convection as well as land surface parameterization. The analysis of surface temperature (precipitation) climatology indicates that the model with CLM produces warmer (dryer) climatology, particularly over India. The warmer (dryer) climatology is due to the higher sensible heat flux (lower evapotranspiration) in CLM. The model with MIT convection scheme simulated wetter and warmer climatology (higher precipitation and temperature) with smaller Bowen ratio over southern India compared to that with the Grell and Kuo schemes. This indicates that a land surface scheme produces warmer but drier climatology with sensible heating contributing to warming where as a convection scheme warmer but wetter climatology with latent heat contributing to warming. The climatology of surface temperature over India is better simulated by the model with BATS land surface model in combination with MIT convection scheme while the precipitation climatology is better simulated with BATS land surface model in combination with Grell convection scheme. Overall, the modeling system with the combination of Grell convection and BATS land surface scheme provides better climate simulation over the Indian region. 相似文献
14.
Sensitivity of the simulated African monsoon of summers 1993 and 1999 to convective parameterization schemes in RegCM3 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
L. A. Djiotang Tchotchou F. Mkankam Kamga 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2010,100(1-2):207-220
In this study, the International Center for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) was used to investigate the sensitivity of the simulation of the West African monsoon using four different cumulus and closures parameterization schemes of Anthes Kuo (AK), Grell and Fristish Chappell (GFC), Grell and Arakawa Schubert (GAS), and MIT-Emmanuel (EM) while maintaining other physical packages unchanged. The contrasting monsoon years of 1993 and 1999, which were dry and wet years, respectively, were simulated. The model was integrated from a period of 5 months, starting from May 1 to September 30 of each year using the European Centre for Medium-Range-Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis data (ERA40) as input boundary conditions. The 6-hourly reanalysis data were used to provide the lateral boundary conditions, and the observed weekly Reynolds Sea Surface Temperature interpolated to 6 h was used as the lower boundary forcing. The results show that in West Africa, monsoon precipitations are sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterization and closure schemes. None of the schemes is able to simulate the monsoon rainfall accurately, and furthermore, there is little difference in behavior among schemes between dry and wet years. The spatial features of precipitation are not identical among schemes, although they all show a northward shift of the rain bands, giving a very wet Sahel and dry Guinean Coast. The GFC and EM schemes are able to capture the diurnal cycle of precipitation and the zonal averages of stratiform rain fractions as observed in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), although they overestimated rainfall amounts. The most important deficiencies, however, cannot be attributed to the schemes. In particular, the northward shift of both the rain band and the AEJ in RegCM3 is the result of unrealistic soil moisture resulting from the way albedo is parameterized, leading to an excessive northward penetration of monsoon flow. A sensitivity study showed that an adjustment of initial albedo values over the Sahel improved the simulation, and in particular the position of rain bands and of the AEJ. 相似文献
15.
两种积云对流参数化方案对1998年区域气候季节变化模拟的影响研究 总被引：9，自引：2，他引：7
利用区域气候模式RegCM3,选择Kuo-Anthes积云对流参数化方案和基于FC80假设的Grell积云对流参数化方案,对1998年东亚气候分别进行年尺度模拟,模拟结果对比分析表明:在春、夏季转换时期, 两者模拟的降水形势差别较大, 对江淮、中南和华南地区的夏季降水量模拟差别最为明显。对流层上层模式变量和模式大气质量对积云对流参数化方案的选择不敏感, 而对流层中、下层模式变量对积云对流参数化方案比较敏感。不同积云对流参数化方案对8天时间尺度的天气系统模拟差别比较大。在积云对流比较活跃的夏季,不同参数化方案会导致模式大气出现不同的系统性偏差。由于模式在陡峭地形处动力过程计算方案存在缺陷,在高原与盆地的交界处,模式误差会产生明显的突变。 相似文献
16.
利用NCEP FNL再分析资料为初始场,通过WRF中尺度数值模式(V3.9.1版本)对2015年8月26~27日青藏高原那曲地区一次对流云降水过程进行了模拟,分析了不同积云对流参数化方案和云微物理参数化方案组合对本次降水过程中降水量、环流场、雷达反射率以及云微物理特征模拟效果的影响。结果表明:WRF模式能较好地模拟出本次降水的时空变化特征,但不同参数化方案组合各有优势,总体而言,Grell-Devenyi+SUBYLIN和Grell-Freitas+SUBYLIN组合模拟性能最优。本次对流云降水以冰相过程为主,雪粒子贡献最大,暖云粒子对降水的影响并不明显。从云微物理过程的时间演变可看出,性能最好的SUBYLIN方案能合理模拟降水过程中雪粒子与冰晶粒子间的转换过程,雪粒子可在凝结过程中释放潜热促使对流运动发展,也可通过融化过程促进降水发生,对流层高层冰晶粒子凝华产生的潜热释放亦为深对流的发展创造了有利条件。 相似文献
17.
区域气候模式不同积云对流参数化方案对新疆气候模拟的影响研究 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0
使用NCEP-FNL全球分析资料作为WRF模式的初始场和边界场,利用该模式中7种积云对流参数化方案对新疆地区进行2006年10月1日至2008年3月1日的模拟积分试验,重点考察模式在水平分辨率为10 km下不同积云对流参数化方案对新疆地区气象要素模拟的敏感性。结果表明:1）采用7种积云对流参数化方案的模式都能较好地模拟出年、雨季总降水量、平均温度的空间分布及大气的垂直结构。2）对于不同区域来说,采用各种积云对流参数化方案的模式都能模拟出候降水及候平均温度随时间演变,模式候降水与观测的相关系数在0.20~0.85之间,而候平均温度与观测的相关系数在0.98以上。对于整个新疆地区来说,采用各方案模式模拟的低层偏干偏冷,大气层结较稳定导致降水较观测偏少,而其中天山地区模式模拟的低层较观测偏湿偏暖,大气层结偏向不稳定导致降水偏多。3）采用新的Grell和Kain-Fritsch（new Eta）方案模式模拟的效果综合来看较好。因此利用WRF模式开展新疆地区数值模拟研究时应该考虑不同积云对流参数化方案适用范围。 相似文献
18.
Analysis on the 10-yr Simulation of the Meiyu Precipitation and Its Associated Circulation with the GAMIL Model 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 ZHUO Dongqi ZHANG Yaocun WANG Bin LI Lijuan HUANG Ying 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2010,24(3):328-339
The major features of Meiyu precipitation and associated circulation systems simulated by the grid-point atmospheric model of IAP LASG (GAMIL) with Zhang-McFarlane and Tiedtke cumulus parameterization schemes are examined in this paper. The results show that the model with both schemes can reproduce the heavy precipitation center over the Yangtze-Huai River Basin (YHRB) during the Meiyu period. The horizontal and vertical structures of the circulation systems during the Meiyu period are also well simulated,such as the intensive meridional gradients of moisture and μse (pseudo-equivalent temperature), the strong low-level southwesterly flow in the lower troposphere over East China, the location of the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere, the strong ascending motion in heavy precipitation zone, and compensation downward motion on the northern and southern sides of the heavy precipitation belt. However, obvious discrepancies occur in the simulated temperature field in the mid-lower troposphere,especially with the Zhang-McFarlane scheme. In addition, the simulated Meiyu period (onset and duration) is found to be associated with the temperature difference in the lower atmosphere over the land and ocean, and with the cumulus parameterization schemes. The land-sea thermal contrast (LSTC) simulated by the Zhang-McFarlane scheme increases faster than that in the reanalysis from April to July, and changes from negative to positive at the end of May. Consequently, the simulated Meiyu onset begins in May, one month earlier than the observation. On the other hand, since the LSTC simulated by the Tiedtke scheme is in agreement with the reanalysis during June and July, the simulated Meiyu period is similar to the observation. The different LSTCs simulated by the GAMIL model with the two cumulus parameterization schemes may affect the Meiyu period simulations. Therefore, it is necessary to refine the cumulus parameterization scheme in order to improve the Meiyu precipitation simulation by the GAMIL model. 相似文献
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The diagnostic model of the cumulus convection proposed by Yanai et al. (1973) was applied to the atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau, and used to estimate the vertical mass flux, entrainment and detrainment, excess temperature and moisture, liquid water content, and condensation and precipitation rates of highland cloud clusters. The re-sults illustrated that in clouds over the Tibetan Plateau, the water vapor condensation rate, liquid water content, and efficiency of the rain generation process are less than those in the tropics (represented by the Marshall Islands region). Therefore, the condensational latent heat released over the Tibetan Plateau, overall, is much smaller than that in the tropics. The water vapor and liquid water detrainment from shallow nonprecipitating cumulus clouds, and their entrainment into deep cumulus clouds, serve as a growing mechanism for the deep precipitating cumulus towers over the Tibetan Plateau. It should be noted that there is a stronger detrainment of liquid water from cumulus clouds and a stronger re-evaporation rate in environment. The process of the condensation-detrainment-re-evaporation-entrainment is repeatedly in progress. It would play an important role in maintaining of cumulus convection on the condition that the supply of moisture is not plentiful over the Tibetan Plateau.The analyses also showed that the cloud mass flux Mc over the Tibetan Plateau is less, and the large-scale av-erage upward motion is much less than those over the Marshall Islands. Stronger compensating downward motion in the cloud environment over the Tibetan Plateau, responsible for the area’s strong environmental heating rate was re-vealed, and would link to the stability of the South Asian High in summer. 相似文献