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1.
The seismicity of Grahamstown, in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, for the years between 1820 and 1936 is investigated with recourse to contemporaneous documentary sources, leading to the development of a seismic history incorporating consideration of the broader geo-political context. Individual studies of five regional events that were felt in Grahamstown during that period, and of one that was not, are presented. Each study includes the development of a full set of intensity data points, which are used to determine reappraised epicentral locations and magnitudes, some of which differ significantly from previously listed parameters. The results thus obtained highlight the value of seeking out additional contemporary sources from different language groups when revisiting the source parameters of earthquakes for which no or only very limited instrumental information is available.  相似文献   

2.
The estimation of site intensity occurrence probabilities in low seismic activity regions has been studied from different points of view. However, no method has been definitively established because several problems arise when macroseismic historical data are incomplete and the active zones are not well determined. The purpose of this paper is to present a method that estimates site occurrence probabilities and at the same time measures the uncertainties inherent in these probabilities in low activity regions. The region to be studied is divided into very broad seismic zones. An exponential intensity probability law is adjusted for each zone and the degree of uncertainty in the assumed incompleteness of the catalogue is evaluated for each intensity. These probabilities are used to establish what may be termed ‘prior site occurrence models’. A Bayesian method is used to improve ‘prior models’ and to obtain the ‘posterior site occurrence models’. Epicentre locations are used to recover spatial information lost in the prior broad zoning. This Bayesian correction permits the use of specific attenuation for different events and may take into account, by means of conservative criteria, epicentre location errors. Following Bayesian methods, probabilities are assumed to be random variables and their distribution may be used to estimate the degree of uncertainty arising from (a) the statistical variance of estimators, (b) catalogue incompleteness and (c) mismatch of data to prior assumptions such as Poisson distribution for events and exponential distribution for intensities. The results are maps of probability and uncertainty for each intensity. These maps exhibit better spatial definition than those obtained by means of simple, broad zones. Some results for Catalonia (NE of Iberian Peninsula) are shown.  相似文献   

3.
In many countries such as Spain earthquake databases still mainly comprise macroseismic data from felt effects. The full exploit of this information is of basic importance for seismic risk assessment and emergency planning, given the strict link between macroseismic intensity and damage. A probabilistic procedure specifically developed to handle macroseismic data, mostly relying on site information and seismogenic-source free, has been applied to evaluate seismic hazard in SE-Spain (Alicante-Murcia region). Present seismicity is moderate-low with largest magnitudes slightly over Mw5.0. The historical record includes very destructive earthquakes, maximum EMS98 intensities reaching IX–X and X in the nineteenth century (e.g., Torrevieja 1829 earthquake). Very recently, two events in the area on 11 May 2011 (Mw4.5, Mw5.2) killed nine people, injured 300, and produced important damage in the city of Lorca. Regional hazard maps for the area together with specific hazard curves at selected localities are obtained. Results are compared with the maximum observed intensities in the period 1300–2012, and with the values in the seismic hazard map from the Spanish Building Code in force. In general, the maximum felt intensity values are closer to the hazard values calculated for 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years, using felt and expected intensity. The intensity-based probabilistic hazard maps obtained through the applied approach reduce the inherent smoothing of those based on standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approaches for the region, allowing identifying possible over- or sub-estimates of site hazard values, providing very valuable information for risk reduction strategies or for future updates of the building code hazard maps.  相似文献   

4.
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5.
Seismic events that occurred during the past half century in the Tellian Atlas, North Africa, are used to establish fundamental seismic empirical relations, tying earthquake magnitude to source parameters (seismic moment, fault plane area, maximal displacement along the fault, and fault plane length). Those empirical relations applied to the overall seismicity from 1716 to present are used to transform the magnitude (or intensity) versus time distribution into (1) cumulative seismic moment versus time, and (2) cumulative displacements versus time. Both of those parameters as well as the computed seismic moment rate, the strain rate along the Tellian Atlas strike, and various other geological observations are consistent with the existence, in the Tellian Atlas, of three distinct active tectonic blocks. These blocks are seismically decoupled from each other, thus allowing consideration of the seismicity as occurring in three different distinct seismotectonic blocks. The cumulative displacement versus time from 1900 to present for each of these tectonic blocks presents a remarkable pattern of recurrence time intervals and precursors associated with major earthquakes. Indeed, most major earthquakes that occurred in these three blocks might have been predicted in time. The Tellian Atlas historical seismicity from the year 881 to the present more substantially confirms these observations, in particular for the western block of the Tellian Atlas. Theoretical determination of recurrence time intervals for the Tellian Atlas large earthquakes using Molnar and Kostrov formalisms is also consistent with these observations. Substantial observations support the fact that the western and central Tellian Atlas are currently at very high seismic risk, in particular the central part. Indeed, most of the accumulated seismic energy in the central Tellian Atlas crust has yet to be released, despite the occurrence of the recent destructive May 2003 Boumerdes earthquake (M w = 6.8). The accumulated seismic energy is equivalent to a magnitude 7.6 earthquake. In situ stress and geodetic measurements, as well as other geophysical field data measurements, are now required to practically check the validity of those observations.  相似文献   

6.
—?The city of Thessaloniki is located in northern Greece, close to a large seismogenic area and it has experienced several destructive earthquakes during the present century. In this paper, we focus on the definition of the subsurface structure of the city from a site response analysis perspective. The paper presents, together with a summary of geology and seismicity, the results of a large-scale geophysical and geotechnical survey, in order to determine and validate geometry and dynamic properties of the main soil formations. The synthesis and combination of recent results regarding the dynamic properties with those obtained from the elaboration of a large database of classical geotechnical tests led to the design of a detail geotechnical map and of various 1-D profiles, 2-D cross sections and 3-D thematic maps for the main soil formations. These soil profiles and maps are oriented to site effect studies and provide a comprehensive picture easily adapted to geographic information systems (GIS) for planning and design purposes. Moreover, the results of this study were correlated with macroseismic observations reported in many earlier published microzonation studies of Thessaloniki. These comparative observations revealed the complexity of surface geology of the urban area, a fact which is expected to provoke additional amplification with respect to 1-D resonance.  相似文献   

7.
A relation to determine local magnitude (M L) based on the original Richter definition is empirically derived from synthetic Wood–Anderson seismograms recorded by the South African National Seismograph Network. In total, 263 earthquakes in the distance range 10 to 1,000 km, representing 1,681 trace amplitudes measured in nanometers from synthesized Wood–Anderson records on the vertical channel were considered to derive an attenuation relation appropriate for South Africa through multiple regression analysis. Additionally, station corrections were determined for 26 stations during the regression analysis resulting in values ranging between ?0.31 and 0.50. The most appropriate M L scale for South Africa from this study satisfies the equation: $$ {M_{{{\bf L}}}} = {\text{lo}}{{\text{g}}_{{10}}}(A) + 1.149\;{\text{lo}}{{\text{g}}_{{10}}}(R) + 0.00063R + 2.04 - S $$ The anelastic attenuation term derived from this study indicates that ground motion attenuation is significantly different from Southern California but comparable with stable continental regions.  相似文献   

8.
Soil carbon data were collected from published sources for 50 measurement sites spanning the globe's major climate and vegetation types. For each site, climate, vegetation, and land-use variables were determined and entered into a multiple curvilinear regression program to predict soil carbon. The best model incorporates an estimate of site disturbance, annual actual evapotranspiration, and annual soil moisture deficit, and yields an R = 0-803. The curvilinear regression equation was coupled with a large climatic database and computer cartography programs to produce first-generation maps of estimated soil carbon. These maps correctly portray soil carbon as high in boreal and cool temperate zones and low in deserts and tropical zones. Computer planimetry of maps of soil carbon for an ‘undisturbed’ world and for a ‘disturbed’ world resulted in estimates of 1457 × 109 mtC and 504 × 109 mtC respectively. These estimates compare favourably with recent estimates using other approaches. Clearly, the disturbance factor is critical to future refinements in estimates, suggesting the need for detailed studies of the relationship between land-use history and the creation and destruction of this important carbon pool.  相似文献   

9.
Probabilistic seismic risk assessment for spatially distributed lifelines is less straightforward than for individual structures. While procedures such as the ‘PEER framework’ have been developed for risk assessment of individual structures, these are not easily applicable to distributed lifeline systems, due to difficulties in describing ground‐motion intensity (e.g. spectral acceleration) over a region (in contrast to ground‐motion intensity at a single site, which is easily quantified using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis), and since the link between the ground‐motion intensities and lifeline performance is usually not available in closed form. As a result, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and its variants are well suited for characterizing ground motions and computing resulting losses to lifelines. This paper proposes a simulation‐based framework for developing a small but stochastically representative catalog of earthquake ground‐motion intensity maps that can be used for lifeline risk assessment. In this framework, Importance Sampling is used to preferentially sample ‘important’ ground‐motion intensity maps, and K‐Means Clustering is used to identify and combine redundant maps in order to obtain a small catalog. The effects of sampling and clustering are accounted for through a weighting on each remaining map, so that the resulting catalog is still a probabilistically correct representation. The feasibility of the proposed simulation framework is illustrated by using it to assess the seismic risk of a simplified model of the San Francisco Bay Area transportation network. A catalog of just 150 intensity maps is generated to represent hazard at 1038 sites from 10 regional fault segments causing earthquakes with magnitudes between five and eight. The risk estimates obtained using these maps are consistent with those obtained using conventional MCS utilizing many orders of magnitudes more ground‐motion intensity maps. Therefore, the proposed technique can be used to drastically reduce the computational expense of a simulation‐based risk assessment, without compromising the accuracy of the risk estimates. This will facilitate computationally intensive risk analysis of systems such as transportation networks. Finally, the study shows that the uncertainties in the ground‐motion intensities and the spatial correlations between ground‐motion intensities at various sites must be modeled in order to obtain unbiased estimates of lifeline risk. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
David Dunkerley 《水文研究》2012,26(15):2211-2224
Small plots and a dripper rainfall simulator were used to explore the significance of the intensity fluctuations (‘event profile’) within simulated rainfall events on infiltration and runoff from bare, crusted dryland soils. Rainfall was applied at mean rain rates of 10 mm/h. Fourteen simulated rainfall events each involved more than 5000 changes of intensity and included multipeak events with a 25‐mm/h peak of intensity early in the event or late in the event and an event that included a temporary cessation of rain. These are all event profiles commonly seen in natural rain but rarely addressed in rainfall simulation. A rectangular event profile of constant intensity, as commonly used in rainfall simulation experiments, was also adopted for comparative purposes. Results demonstrate that event profile exerts an important effect on infiltration and runoff for these soils and rainfall event profiles. ‘Uniform’ events of unvarying intensity yielded the lowest total runoff, the lowest peak runoff rate and the lowest runoff ratio (0.13). These parameters increased for ‘early peak’ profiles (runoff ratio 0.24) and reached maxima for ‘late peak’ profiles (runoff ratio 0.50). Differences in runoff ratio and peak runoff rate between the ‘uniform’ event profile and those of varying intensity were all statistically significant at p ≤ 0.01. Compared with ‘uniform’ runs, the varying intensity runs yielded larger runoff ratios and peak runoff rates, exceeding those of the ‘uniform’ events by 85%–570%. These results suggest that for small‐plot studies of infiltration and erosion, the continued use of constant rainfall intensity simulations may be sacrificing important information and misrepresenting the mechanisms involved in runoff generation. The implications of these findings for the ecohydrology of the research site, an area of contour‐aligned banded vegetation in which runoff and runon are of critical importance, are highlighted. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
The estimation of the seismological parameters of historical earthquakes is a key step when performing seismic hazard assessment in moderate seismicity regions as France. We propose an original method to assess magnitude and depth of historical earthquakes using intensity data points. A flowchart based on an exploration tree (ET) approach allows to apply a consistent methodology to all the different configurations of the earthquake macroseismic field and to explore the inherent uncertainties. The method is applied to French test case historical earthquakes, using the SisFrance (BRGM, IRSN, EDF) macroseismic database and the intensity prediction equations (IPEs) calibrated in the companion paper (Baumont et al. Bull Earthq Eng, 2017). A weighted least square scheme allowing for the joint inversion of magnitude and depth is applied to earthquakes that exhibit a decay of intensity with distance. Two cases are distinguished: (1) a “Complete ET” is applied to earthquakes located within the metropolitan territory, while (2) a “Simplified ET” is applied to both, offshore and cross border events, lacking information at short distances but disposing of reliable data at large ones. Finally, a priori-depth-based magnitude computation is applied to ancient or poorly documented events, only described by single/sporadic intensity data or few macroseismic testimonies. Specific processing of “felt” testimonies allows exploiting this complementary information for poorly described earthquakes. Uncertainties associated to magnitude and depth estimates result from both, full propagation of uncertainties related to the original macroseismic information and the epistemic uncertainty related to the IPEs selection procedure.  相似文献   

12.
The May 12, 2008, Wenchuan M S 8.0/M w 7.9 earthquake occurred in the middle part of the north–south seismic zone in central west China, being one of the greatest thrust events on land in recent years. To explore whether there were some indications of the increase of strong earthquake probabilities before the Wenchuan earthquake, we conducted a retrospective forecast test applying the Pattern Informatics (PI) algorithm to the earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region since 1992. A regional earthquake catalogue complete to M L 3.0 from 01/01/1977 to 15/06/2008 was used. A 15-year long ‘sliding time window’ was used in the PI calculation, with ‘anomaly training time window’ and ‘forecast time window’ both set to 5 years. With a forecast target magnitude of M S 5.5, the ROC test shows that the PI forecast outperforms not only random guess but also the simple number-counting approach based on the clustering hypothesis of earthquakes (the RI forecast). ‘Hotspots’ can be seen in the region of the northern Longmenshan fault which is responsible for the Wenchuan earthquake. However, when considering bigger grid size and higher cutoff magnitude, such ‘hotspots’ disappear and there is very little indication of an impending great earthquake.  相似文献   

13.
It has taken more than a hundred years for seismic observations in the Philippines to evolve to a modern observation system.The responsibility of seismic observations was likewise transfeered from one agency to another during this same period of time.At present,the mandate of conducting seismic observatins in the Philippines rests with the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology(PHIVOLCS),In 2000,through a grant aid from the Japan International Cooperation Agency(JICA),the Philippine Seismic netowrk was upgraded to a digital system.As a result,a new set of seismic monitoring equipments was installed in all of the 34 PHIVOLCS seismic stations all over the country,Digital waveforms are now available for high level seismic data processing.and data acquisition and processing are now automated.Included in the upgrade is the provision of strong motion accelerographs in all stations whose data can now be used for studying ground motion and intensity attenuation relations,The new setup is now producing high-resolution data that can now be used for conducting basic seismological researches,Earthquake locations have now improved allowing for the modeling and delineation of earthquake source regions necessary for earthquake hazard studies.Current seismic hazard studies in the Philippines involve the estimation of ground motion using both probabilitstic and deterministic approaches,seismic microzonation studies of key cities using microtremor observations,paleoseismology and active faults mapping ,and identification of liquefaction-prone,landslide-prone nd tsunami-affected areas.The earthquake database is now being reviewed and completed with the addition of historical events and from data from regional databases,While studies of seismic hazards were primarily concentrated on a regional level ,PHIVOLCS is now focusing on doing these seismic hazard studies on a micriolevel.For Metro Manila,first generation hazard maps showing ground rupture,ground shaking and liquefaction hazards have recently been completed.Other large cities that are also at risk from large earthquakes are the next targets.The elements at risk such as population,lifelines,and vertical and horizontal structures for each of these urban centers are also being incorporated in the hazard maps for immediate use of planners,civil defense officials,policy-makers and engineers.The maps can also now be used to describe possible scenarios during times of strong events and how appropriate socio-economic and engineering responses could be designed.In addition,a rapid earthquake damage assessment system has been started which will attempt to produce immediate or rapid assessments identification of elements at risk durin times of strong earthquakes  相似文献   

14.
The use of a newly developed earthquake simulator has allowed the production of catalogs lasting 100 kyr and containing more than 100,000 events of magnitudes ≥4.5. The model of the fault system upon which we applied the simulator code was obtained from the DISS 3.2.0 database, selecting all the faults that are recognized on the Calabria region, for a total of 22 fault segments. The application of our simulation algorithm provides typical features in time, space and magnitude behavior of the seismicity, which can be compared with those of the real observations. The results of the physics-based simulator algorithm were compared with those obtained by an alternative method using a slip-rate balanced technique. Finally, as an example of a possible use of synthetic catalogs, an attenuation law has been applied to all the events reported in the synthetic catalog for the production of maps showing the exceedance probability of given values of PGA on the territory under investigation.  相似文献   

15.
To estimate the parameters of ground motion in future strong earthquakes, characteristics of radiation and propagation of seismic waves in the Kamchatka region were studied. Regional parameters of radiation and propagation of seismic waves were estimated by comparing simulations of earthquake records with data recorded by stations of the Kamchatka Strong Motion Network. Acceleration time histories of strong earthquakes (M w = 6.8–7.5, depths 45–55 km) that occurred near the eastern coast of Kamchatka in 1992–1993 were simulated at rock and soil stations located at epicentral distances of 67–195 km. In these calculations, the source spectra and the estimates of frequency-dependent attenuation and geometrical spreading obtained earlier for Kamchatka were used. The local seismic-wave amplification was estimated based on shallow geophysical site investigations and deep crustal seismic explorations, and parameters defining the shapes of the waveforms, the duration, etc. were selected, showing the best-fit to the observations. The estimated parameters of radiation and propagation of seismic waves describe all the studied earthquakes well. Based on the waveforms of the acceleration time histories, models of slip distribution over the fault planes were constructed for the studied earthquakes. Station PET can be considered as a reference rock station having the minimum site effects. The intensity of ground motion at the other studied stations was higher than at PET due to the soil response or other effects, primarily topographic ones. At soil stations INS, AER, and DCH the parameters of soil profiles (homogeneous pyroclastic deposits) were estimated, and nonlinear models of their behavior in the strong motion were constructed. The obtained parameters of radiation and propagation of seismic waves and models of soil behavior can be used for forecasting ground motion in future strong earthquakes in Kamchatka.  相似文献   

16.
Measurements of the amplitudes of seismic body waves at teleseismic distances have rarely resolved significant features mainly because of the large scatter of the data. However, amplitudes are easy to measure and may provide additional constraints on structure to supplement times and waveforms. A new approach to analysing body wave amplitudes at a regional network of similar instruments seeks to minimize scatter by first deriving amplitude station corrections analogous to station corrections for times. After correction for station effects, amplitudes from several events can be combined to give regional amplitude–distance curves without using information on event magnitudes. However, the earthquakes providing the observations must lie in a restricted range of azimuths from the stations of the network and provide considerable overlap in the range of distances between adjacent events, with no gaps in distance coverage. The advantages of the method are explored using P wave amplitudes from two sets of earthquakes in the Indonesian and South American regions recorded by the Kaapvaal network deployed across southern Africa. In the first example, high amplitudes near 88° distance suggest the presence of a small discontinuity at the top of D″ that causes constructive interference between the closely separated arrivals of a small triplication in the travel times. The second example, supplemented by calculations using synthetic data, shows how long-wavelength regional variations in amplitudes can be resolved to assist the interpretation of times and waveforms. However, the limited range of distances in the observations and lateral heterogeneities at any depths can result in bias or tilt of the amplitude–distance relationships. Constraining the depths of the structure causing the long-wavelength variations is a subject for future research.  相似文献   

17.
We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Iceland in the framework of the EU project UPStrat-MAFA using the so-called site approach implemented in the SASHA computational code. This approach estimates seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity by basically relying on local information about documented effects of past seismic events in the framework of a formally coherent and complete treatment of intensity data. In the case of Iceland, due to the lack of observed intensities for past earthquakes, local seismic histories were built using indirect macroseismic estimates deduced from epicentral information through an empirical attenuation relationship in probabilistic form. Seismic hazard was computed for four exceedance probabilities for an exposure time of 50 years, equivalent to average return periods of 50, 200, 475 and 975 years. For some localities, further return periods were examined and deaggregation analysis was performed. Results appear significantly different from previous seismic hazard maps, though just a semi-qualitative comparison is possible because of the different shaking measure considered (peak ground acceleration versus intensity), and the different computational methodology and input data used in these studies.  相似文献   

18.
中国地震烈度衰减的概率模型   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文
本文在考虑地震烈度评定和预测的不确定性的基础上,提出建立烈度衰减概率模型的方法。根据我国东部和西部(大致以东经104为界)地区已发生的破坏性地震的等震线图,提供了两个地区地震烈度衰减的概率模型。最后,简要讨论了如何将这一模型应用于地震危险度评定的基本思想。   相似文献   

19.
Because seismic activity within mid-continents is usually much lower than that along plate boundary zones, even small earthquakes can cause widespread concerns, especially when these events occur in the source regions of previous large earthquakes. However, these small earthquakes may be just aftershocks that continue for decades or even longer. The recent seismicity in the Tangshan region in North China is likely aftershocks of the 1976 Great Tangshan earthquake. The current earthquake sequence in the New Madrid seismic zone in central United States, which includes a cluster of M ~ 7.0 events in 1811–1812 and a number of similar events in the past millennium, is believed to result from recent fault reactivation that releases pre-stored strain energy in the crust. If so, this earthquake sequence is similar to aftershocks in that the rates of energy release should decay with time and the sequence of earthquakes will eventually end. We use simple physical analysis and numerical simulations to show that the current sequence of large earthquakes in the New Madrid fault zone is likely ending or has ended. Recognizing that mid-continental earthquakes have long aftershock sequences and complex spatiotemporal occurrences are critical to improve hazard assessments.  相似文献   

20.
Primary and secondary earthquake effects were investigated (surface breakage and felt effects in the villages of Tilichiki, Korf, and Khailino) in the epicentral area of a large earthquake occurring in northern Kamchatka Krai. The primary effects include an extended surface break that can be followed for a length of about 140 km. The secondary (gravitational and vibrational) effects include soil slides and minor rockfalls, snow flows on slopes, resonant cracks, soil liquefaction phenomena consisting of mud cones, mud gryphons, and discharges of soil from cracks. Detailed maps showing the main types of earthquake surface effects have been made. Paleoseismic data show traces of several large earthquakes that have occurred in the Olyutorskii earthquake zone. Radio carbon dating of soil samples from these paleoseismic scarps revealed a history of great earthquakes occurring in Koryakia. In all, four seismic events with magnitudes about that of the 2006 Olyutorskii earthquake have occurred there during 8000 years, the return period of such events being 1000–2500 years.  相似文献   

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