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1.
基于1961-2014年中国台站观测资料和NECP/NCAR再分析资料,对影响中国北方强降雪事件（日降雪量5 mm及以上,包括大到暴雪）年际变化的典型大尺度环流特征和水汽条件进行了综合分析.结果表明：中国北方强降雪事件主要集中在新疆北部和东北两个地区,而且强降雪日数和降雪量具有高度一致的年际变化特征.中国北方强降雪事件偏多时,对应北大西洋涛动（NAO）和北极涛动（AO）负位相;贝加尔湖上空维持异常低槽区,有利于冷空气的爆发南下;热带印度洋至热带西太平洋上空维持一条异常反气旋带,有利于暖湿气流向北输送;中国北方及以北区域高空为异常西风气流,提供有利的动力抬升条件,使得强降雪易于在中国北方发生;反之亦然.水汽收支分析显示,中国北方西边界和南边界水汽入流增强在强降雪偏多中起着主要贡献.异常西风水汽输送利于新疆北部大到暴雪偏多,异常西南风水汽输送则利于东北地区大到暴雪的发生.进一步研究揭示：与小雪相比,影响中国北方大到暴雪年际偏多的中高纬环流特征相类似,但环流经向度更大;而且大到暴雪与NAO和AO的关系更密切,并更多的受到来自中低纬地区的水汽输送影响. 相似文献
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B.E. Shaw 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2000,157(11-12):2149-2164
—Fault models can generate complex sequences of events from frictional instabilities, even when the material properties are completely uniform along the fault. These complex sequences arise from the heterogeneous stress and strain fields which are produced through the dynamics of repeated ruptures on the fault. Visual inspection of the patterns of events produced in these models shows a striking and ubiquitous feature: future events tend to occur near the edges of where large events died out. In this paper, we explore this feature more deeply. First, using long catalogues generated by the model, we quantify the effect. We show, interestingly, that it is an even larger effect for future small events than it is for future large events. Then, using our ability to directly measure all aspects of the model, we find a physical explanation for our observations by examining the stress fields associated with large events. Looking at the average stress field we see a large stress concentration left at the edge of the large events, out of which the future events emerge. Further, we see the smearing out of the stress concentration as small events occur. This indicates why the epicenters of future small events are more correlated with the edges of large events than are the epicenters of future large events. Finally, we discuss how results from our simple model may be relevant to the more complicated case of the earth. 相似文献
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The suspended sediment yield and the transfer of polluted sediment are investigated for the Puyango river basin in southern Ecuador. This river system receives metal (Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb and Zn) and cyanide pollution generated by mining, and is associated with large‐scale hydrological variability, which is partly governed by El Niño events. Field sampling and statistical modelling methods are used to quantify the amount of mine tailings that is discharged into the basin. Annual suspended sediment yields are estimated using a novel combination of the suspended sediment rating method and Monte Carlo simulations, which allow for propagation of the uncertainties of the calculations that lead to final load estimates. Geochemical analysis of suspended and river bed sediment is used to assess the dispersion and long‐term fate of contaminated sediment within the river catchment. Knowledge of the inter‐ and intra‐annual variation in suspended sediment yield is shown to be crucial for judging the importance of mining discharges, and the extent to which the resultant pollution is diluted by river flows. In wet years, polluted sediments represent only a very small proportion of the yield estimates, but in dry years the proportion can be significant. Evidence shows that metal contaminated sediments are stored in the Puyango river bed during low flows. Large flood events flush this sediment periodically, both on an annual cycle associated with the rainy season, and also related to El Niño events. Therefore, environmental impacts of mining‐related discharges are more likely to be severe during dry years compared with wet years, and in the dry season rather than the wet season. The hydrological consequences of El Niño events are shown to depend upon the extent to which these events penetrate inland. It is, thus, shown that the general conclusion that El Niño events can significantly affect suspended sediment yields needs evaluation with respect to the particular way in which those events affect a given catchment. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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—The recurrence behaviour of large earthquakes, in several tectonic settings, has been explained by simple models of stress accumulation and release which assume that the fault stress state is solely a function of the far-field tectonic strain rate. However, the limited dataset of large event recurrence intervals has been a major obstacle to the verification of these and other models. We present the results from a simple analogue model of earthquake rupture and stick-slip which displays power-law frequency-size statistics and involves many cycles of large events. We show that, despite the macroscopic homogeneity of the model, large events do not conform to simple deterministic time- or slip-predictable patterns. However, when the recurrence intervals for large events are divided by the median recurrence interval, the normalized data are composed of two distinct lognormally distributed populations. One population is characterized by events which are strongly clustered in time with relatively short recurrence intervals and low moment release, the other by events which are weakly clustered in time with median-sized recurrence intervals. It is suggested that the long-term recurrence behaviour of large earthquakes, whilst being non-deterministic, may be modelled by a well-defined statistical distribution of recurrence intervals. 相似文献
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Chi-Yu King 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1994,143(1-3):457-482
Slip events generated in a laboratory fault model consisting of a circulinear chain of eight spring-connected blocks of approximately equal weight elastically driven to slide on a frictional surface are studied. It is found that most of the input strain energy is released by a relatively few large events, which are approximately time predictable. A large event tends to roughen stress distribution along the fault, whereas the subsequent smaller events tend to smooth the stress distribution and prepare a condition of simultaneous criticality for the occurrence of the next large event. The frequency-size distribution resembles the Gutenberg-Richter relation for earthquakes, except for a falloff for the largest events due to the finite energy-storage capacity of the fault system. Slip distributions, in different events are commonly dissimilar. Stress drop, slip velocity, and rupture velocity all tend to increase with event size. Rupture-initiation locations are usually not close to the maximum-slip locations. 相似文献
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The key processes in marine seismic imaging include (i) removing from seismic data all seismic events (free-surface multiples and ghosts) which contain at least one reflection at the sea surface in their wave-propagation path, and leaving those with no reflection at the free surface (internal multiples and primaries), (ii) removing events with at least two reflections in the subsurface (internal multiples), and leaving events with only one reflection in the subsurface (primaries), and then (iii) locating the scattering points and reflectors inside the subsurface which are the sources of primaries and internal multiple events. All these processes are here explained, derived, and optimized via scattering diagrams (diagrammatica) in a way similar to the way the quantum field theory is often explained via Feynman diagrams. Our discussion of the removal of events with free-surface reflections from the data will be brief, as the diagrammatica of these events are now well understood.The main focus of this paper is the diagrammatica of internal multiples and primaries. Although these events do not contain any reflection at the sea surface, it is important to reconstruct them with scattering points near the sea surface, where seismic data are recorded. So our diagrammatica of primaries and internal multiples include events which are not directly recorded in seismic data but which can be constructed from seismic data. These events have allowed us to construct scattering diagrams of primaries and internal multiples with scattering points near the sea surface. Furthermore, these new diagrammatica of internal multiples and primaries can be used to remove internal multiples from the data. 相似文献
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巴基斯坦北Potwar形变区是西北喜马拉雅褶皱逆冲带前陆区的一部分，绘制了该区的地震活动性图. 与相邻地区比较，该区地震并不活跃，没有显示出与地表地质构造相关的清晰地震活动图象. 做出了4次地震的震源机制解. 结果表明，有3次地震是左旋走滑断层活动，另一次地震是逆断层活动. 地震震源机制解的P轴方向为NW-SE和NE-SW. 现今的构造形变很可能也包括基底的形变. 相似文献
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近年来我国布设的强震动观测结构台阵越来越多,并在数次地震中捕获了一批宝贵的观测记录,这些记录既是对应用日益广泛的结构数值模拟结果的检验和参数标定的依据,也是结构健康监测的重要数据。本文选取昆明防灾减灾中心大楼观测台阵捕获的3次中远场小震记录作为研究对象,对比ANSYS结构数值模拟和观测值之间在时程以及谱特性等方面的响应差别,证明了在弹性范围下二者结果具有较好的一致性。最后,基于观测记录,采用高效简单的经验谱比法进行了结构模态参数快速识别,3次地震下的自振频率计算结果相对稳定,与数值建模计算结果的差值可控制在0.17Hz以内。 相似文献
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J. Abaurrea J. Asín A. C. Cebrián 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2015,29(1):309-322
A joint model is proposed for analyzing and predicting the occurrence of extreme heat events in two temperature series, these being daily maximum and minimum temperatures. Extreme heat events are defined using a threshold approach and the suggested model, a non-homogeneous common Poisson shock process, accounts for the mutual dependence between the extreme events in the two series. This model is used to study the time evolution of the occurrence of extreme events and its relationship with temperature predictors. A wide range of tools for validating the model is provided, including influence analysis. The main application of this model is to obtain medium-term local projections of the occurrence of extreme heat events in a climate change scenario. Future temperature trajectories from general circulation models, conveniently downscaled, are used as predictors of the model. These trajectories show a generalized increase in temperatures, which may lead to extrapolation errors when the model is used to obtain projections. Various solutions for dealing with this problem are suggested. The results of the fitted model for the temperature series in Barcelona in 1951–2005 and future projections of extreme heat events for the period 2031–2060 are discussed, using three global circulation model trajectories under the SRES A1B scenario. 相似文献
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本文利用Swarm卫星2015—2016年高精度的磁场矢量数据,将晨昏地方时扇区高纬场向电流(Field-Aligned Currents,FACs)事件按极性和电流密度分为四类,并首次比较研究了四类FACs事件的时空分布特征及其影响因素,研究发现:极性正常事件(晨侧靠极侧电流元向下流入电离层,靠赤道侧电流元向上流出电离层,昏侧电流极性相反,即传统意义上的R1和R2FACs)发生率约为70%,其中R1FACs强于R2事件的发生率为R1FACs弱于R2的3~5倍;极性异常事件(与传统的R1和R2FACs流向相反,两片电流元定义为R1*和R2*FACs)发生率约占30%,其中R1*R2*的1.5~2.5倍.进一步分析发现极性正常事件主要发生在南向IMF Bz期间,与重联电场相关性较好,净电流密度随着重联电场和电离层电导率的增加而增加.其中R1R2*事件通常发生在IMF By<0期间,昏侧事件主要发生在IMF By>0期间,而R1*相似文献
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选取乌兰浩特地震台记录到的典型天然地震事件及爆破事件,根据断裂带分布及波形记录特征,分析地震及爆破事件的震相特征。结果表明,研究区域近震波形Pn、Pg、Sn、Sg震相及Sm面波较清晰,Pg、Sg波走时差一般不大于23 s,与中国地震台网中心发布的MS震级间的偏差一般小于0.6级;远震P、S、pP、sP震相可较清晰识别,Pm、L面波记录较明显,P、S波走时差一般不小于25 s,震级偏差一般小于0.4级,且通过震相特征及实地考察发现,爆破多为霍林郭勒区域爆破事件。 相似文献
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选取乌兰浩特地震台记录到的典型天然地震事件及爆破事件,根据断裂带分布及波形记录特征,分析地震及爆破事件的震相特征.结果表明,研究区域近震波形Pn、Pg、Sn、Sg震相及Sm面波较清晰,Pg、Sg波走时差一般不大于23 s,与中国地震台网中心发布的MS震级间的偏差一般小于0.6级;远震P、S、pP、sP震相可较清晰识别,Pm、L面波记录较明显,P、S波走时差一般不小于25 s,震级偏差一般小于0.4级,且通过震相特征及实地考察发现,爆破多为霍林郭勒区域爆破事件. 相似文献
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为了检验广义极性振幅技术(GPAT)的实用性,我们利用GPAT反演确定了49次实际地震的震源机制、矩震级和震源深度.为了检验GPAT对地方地震、区域地震以及远震的实用性,我们选用了震级范围约为ML0.2~MS7.0之间的地震与震中距范围约在5~8000km之间的观测资料.对反演结果的分析表明,利用GPAT获取的震源机制结果在合理误差范围内是正确的,利用GPAT获取的矩震级结果是可靠的,而利用GPAT获取的震源深度总体上似乎比常规定位深度深约0.6km.总体而言,GPAT在震源机制、矩震级和震源深度的反演方面表现出良好的实用性. 相似文献
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利用人工神经元网络方法,提出了一种从连续的地震数据中检测出地震事件的方法。该方法分两步,首先,低阈值的STA／LTA算法从连续的波形中检测出类似地震事件;其次利用神经元网络方法,区分事件是地震事件还是噪声事件。通过对数据检测结果比较,找出了适合地震检测的神经元网络训练方法和神经元传递函数。在对天山流动台阵其中两个台的检测结果表明,在连续约两个月数据中,39RLS台检测出地震75个,30RNA台检测出地震95个,证明该方法对地震事件检测来说是一种有效的方法。 相似文献
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— A novel seismic moment tensor inversion approach is applied to microseismic events from the Kidd mine with moment magnitudes ranging between ?1.2 and 0. Data consist of 35 events recorded on 8 triaxial accelerometers installed underground. Reliable solutions are obtained for 21 events, of which 14 represent pure shear mechanisms, whereas the remaining 7 exhibit a significant positive volumetric component (72–76%), along with some pure shear failure (15–20%). Further analysis indicates that 6 of the events characterized by high volumetric components are located within a sill pillar on the 4,700 level and have subvertical P and subhorizontal T axes. This is in agreement with the presence of tensile cracks close to openings for incipient pillar bursting. The pure shear events are located outside the sill pillar, between the 4,600 and 4,800 levels, and on the 5,600 level within a highly fractured rockmass. For the latter events, the subvertical nodal planes are found to match closely the orientation of subvertical NW-SE fractures aligned parallel to the major faults in the area. 相似文献
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The convolution-type and correlation-type representation theorems are building blocks of wave-scattering theory whose usefulness expands in many seismological applications. For example, the Kirchhoff scattering series currently used for attenuating free-surface multiples has been derived from the convolution-type representation theorem. The recently introduced concept of virtual events, which allows us to put virtual sources and virtual receivers inside the subsurface based on the data collected at the sea surface, has been derived by a combined use of the convolution-type and correlation-type representation theorems. The formulation of inverse Kirchhoff scattering series and virtual events has been limited so far to the cases in which sources or receivers, or both, are located in the water. Unfortunately, this assumption is not valid, especially in the context of virtual events, in which both sources and receivers will often be located in a solid. We here redescribe the Kirchhoff scattering series and reformulate the concept of virtual events for the cases in which sources and receivers are in a solid. Moreover, we describe a new form of Kirchhoff series based on the correlation-type representation theorem and new formulae for computing virtual events which do not include the complex renormalization operation of the previous formulation. 相似文献
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Leo R. Beard 《Surveys in Geophysics》1977,3(1):101-119
The best information on which to base estimates of future flood frequencies is records of past flood events. Where there is a substantial record at the location for which estimates are desired the estimation process is generally straighforward, although a variety of methods is used and there is major uncertainty in the estimates. In general, the frequency of future events is assumed to be indicated by the observed frequency of past events under constant controlling watershed conditions.Techniques are available for using information on historical (pre-record) flood data to improve the reliability of flood frequency estimates. There are methods for detecting and managing extremely unusual actual events (outliers) and for improving the reliability of short-record estimates based on long-record data at related locations. Regional correlation analysis is usable for establishing flood frequency estimates for locations where records are not available.Detailed hydrologic analysis, usually involving rainfall-runoff studies, is required for establishing flood frequency relationships for modified conditions of the watershed or, in many cases, for establishing flood frequency estimates for newly formed drainage systems such as in urban areas and airports.The principal use of flood frequency functions is to compare expected changes in flood damages (due to a contemplated action) with the economic and social costs or benefits of the contemplated action. 相似文献