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1.
On the basis of an analysis of the results of modeling and a forecast of the basic hydrophysical fields in the easternmost part of the Black Sea for 2010–2012, the features of annual variability of regional circulating processes in this part of the sea basin are investigated. A forecast of a hydrological mode is made on the basis of the regional forecasting system developed at the Institute of Geophysics at Javakhishvili State University in cooperation with the oceanographic centers of the Black Sea riparian countries within the frame-work of the ARENA and ECOOP EU international scientific and technical projects. The regional system is one of the components of the Black Sea basin-scale Nowcasting/Forecasting System. The analysis of the material cumulated for the registered period shows that the easternmost water area of the Black Sea is a dynamically active zone where there is a continuous formation of different circulating processes considerably distinguished from each other. 相似文献
2.
In this article, we present the latest version of an ensemble forecasting system of the hydrodynamics of the Black Sea, based on the GHER model. The system includes the Weakly Constrained Ensembles algorithm to generate random, but physically balanced perturbations to initialize members of the ensemble. On top of initial conditions, the ensemble accounts also for uncertainty on the atmospheric forcing fields, and on some scalar parameters such as river flows or model diffusion coefficients. The forecasting system also includes the Ocean Assimilation Kit, a sequential data assimilation package implementing the SEEK and Ensemble Kalman filters. A novel aspect of the forecasting system is that not only our best estimate of the future ocean state is provided, but also the associated error estimated from the ensemble of models. The primary goal of this paper is to quantitatively show that the ensemble variability is a good estimation of the model error, regardless of the magnitude of the forecast errors themselves. In order for this estimation to be meaningful, the model itself should also be well validated. Therefore, we describe the model validation against general circulation patterns. Some particular aspects critical for the Black Sea circulation are validated as well: the mixed layer depth and the shelfopen sea exchanges. The model forecasts are also compared with observed sea surface temperature, and errors are compared to those of another operational model as well. 相似文献
3.
We realize the algorithm of adaptive statistics of forecasting errors for the assimilation of the climatic fields of temperature
and salinity in the σ-coordinate model of the dynamics of the Black Sea. The principal relations of this algorithm and its
simplified version based on the Kalman filter are presented. The distinctive features of realization of the algorithm specified
by the model are discussed. We also present the results of comparison of the hydrophysical fields of the Black Sea reconstructed
according to the algorithm of adaptive statistics and a simplified scheme of assimilation of the climatic data. It is shown
that the dependence of sources in the transport equations (heat and salt diffusion) on the four-dimensional variances of forecasting
errors and threedimensional measurement errors enables one to reconstruct the mutually adapted climatic parameters of the
sea more exactly. 相似文献
4.
A numerical model of online forecasting Black Sea currents 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
S. G. Demyshev 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2012,48(1):120-132
A numerical three-dimensional nonlinear model of the hydrophysical fields of the Black Sea is presented. The properties of
model discrete equations are described. The results of test experiments on the choice of model finite-difference approximations
and parameters (as applied to the online forecasting of currents) are given. The results of prognostic calculations of the
hydrophysical fields of the Black Sea are given for the period of March 31, 2005, to September 26, 2006. These results show
that this numerical model with consideration for real atmospheric forcing can yield a satisfactory forecast of the parameters
of the upper layers of the sea for 18 months of model time. 相似文献
5.
Kubryakov A. I. Grigoriev A. V. Kubryakov V. A. 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2021,57(6):642-649
Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - A σ-coordinate operational model for forecasting the state of waters at the Black Sea sub-satellite polygon in the area of Gelendzhik is presented.... 相似文献
6.
G. I. Marchuk B. E. Paton G. K. Korotaev V. B. Zalesny 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2013,49(6):579-591
An analysis is given of the methods of operational oceanography based on measurements derived from satellite data, observations acquired by drifters and passing vessels, and modern simulations of marine and oceanic circulations. In addition, a historical review is conducted of the previous and current research in this field carried out in the Soviet Union, Ukraine, and Russia. A discussion is given of the principles underlying the design of an effective data-computing system (DCS) for solving the problems of operational oceanography and the implementation of the prototype system for the Black Sea within the joint research project of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) and the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (NASU) “The Black Sea as an Ocean Simulation Model.” The effectiveness of applying the multicomponent splitting method in the construction of sea circulation models and specialized DCSs with integrated algorithms of variational assimilation of observational data is estimated. The concept of using the Black Sea as a testing site for innovations is developed. The underlying idea of the concept is the similarity of the Black Sea dynamics with processes in the oceans. The numerical Black Sea circulation models used in the project are described, their development areas are discussed, and the requirements to a Black Sea observing system are defined. 相似文献
7.
A numerical model of the Black Sea region (Northeastern Mediterranean) is presented in which it is regarded as a part of the mosaic plate ensemble consisting of the fixed East European platform; the active Arabian, Adriatic, and Pannonian plates; and passive East and West Black Sea and Mysian microplates, which are embedded in a plastically deformable regional orogenic matrix. The fields of displacements, stresses, and deformations in the region are calculated by means of the finite element method within the framework of a linear-viscous rheology approach to a system with nonhomogeneous viscosities. The velocity field obtained is in good agreement with published data of direct observations of plate displacements in the region. In the pressure field, areas of low pressure and decompression are established in the western part of Black Sea and in the south of the Mysian microplate. The poles of rotation of the East and West Black Sea microplates and of the Mysian microplate are computed. For the latter two microplates, significant rotational components are suggested. The East Black Sea microplate acts mostly as indenter, which transmits the collisional motion from the Arabian plate to the southern edge of the East European platform including the Crimea. According to the geodynamical model, the rates of the Cenozoic sedimentation in the Black Sea depression at the collision stage (Oligocene-Pliocene) result from the greater compression of the East Black Sea microplate as compared to the West Black Sea microplate, which, probably, experienced a kind of extension. 相似文献
8.
《Marine Policy》2017
It is often claimed that the Black Sea is one of the most degraded seas in the world. Management to rehabilitate the Black Sea requires cooperation between the coastal countries to be successful. However, regional cooperation in the Black Sea is poorly coordinated and lack concrete outcomes. This article analyses the performance of the Black Sea Commission in terms of enabling and fostering effective regional collaboration between the Black Sea coastal countries. The results indicate that the measures undertaken by the Black Sea Commission are effective in terms of enabling scientific and project based cooperation between the Black Sea countries. The cooperation around regional and national institutional reforms to tackle the Black Sea environmental problems is found to be weak. Despite the existing mechanisms and willingness of countries to cooperate, the implementation of the established strategic action plan for the environmental protection and rehabilitation of the Black Sea is limited. Most of the limitations of the Black Sea Commission's regime are found in its institutional and legal frameworks, which constrain the effectiveness of collaborative efforts of the Black Sea countries. To be fully functional, the collaborative governance regime of the Black Sea Commission has to be improved. Recommendations as to how these may be addressed to enhance the regime's capacity to ensure effective marine collaborative governance in the region are presented in this article. 相似文献
9.
南海及邻近海域大气-海浪-海洋耦合精细化数值预报系统研制 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
本文主要介绍了南海及邻近海域大气-海浪-海洋耦合精细化数值预报系统的研制概况。预报区域为99°E~135°E，15°S~45°N，包括渤海、黄海、东海和南海及其周边海域。为了给耦合预报模式提供较准确的预报初始场，在预报开始之前，分别进行了海浪模式和海洋模式的前24小时同化后报模拟。海浪模式和海洋模式都采用了集合调整Kalman滤波同化方法，海浪模式同化了Jason-2有效波高数据；海洋模式同化了SST数据、MADT数据和ARGO剖面数据。为了改进海洋温度和盐度的模拟，我们在海洋模式的垂向混合方案中引入波致混合和内波致混合的作用。预报系统的运行主要包括两个阶段，首先海浪模式和海洋模式进行了2014年1月至2015年10月底的同化后报模拟，强迫场源自欧洲气象中心的六小时的再分析数据产品。然后耦合预报系统将同化后报模拟的结果作为初始场进行了14个月的耦合预报。预报产品包括大气产品（气温、风速风向、气压等）、海浪产品（有效波高和波向等）、海流产品（温度、盐度和海流等）。一系列观测资料的检验比较表明该大气-海浪-海洋耦合精细化数值预报系统的预报结果较为可靠，可以为南海及周边海洋资源开发和安全保障提供数据和信息产品服务。 相似文献
10.
11.
Many gas seepages, temperature, pressure, salinity, anoxic environment and high source gas potential of the Black Sea indicates that the Black Sea might have huge potentials for biogenic and thermogenic gas hydrates. However, the last important parameter to consider gas hydrate as an energy source is the type of sediments. Coarse marine sands are considered as good hydrate reservoirs because of high porosity and high permeability. Only very limited data is available related to the types of lithology of the Black Sea sediments. Hence, in this study, the literature data (especially the drilling and coring data of DSDP Leg 42B program) about gas seepages, temperature gradient, pressure gradient, salinity, anoxic environment and high source gas potential, and the types of the sediments in the Black Sea were investigated and analyzed. Although gas seepages, temperature gradient, pressure gradient, salinity, anoxic environment and high source gas potential of the Black Sea are appropriate for producible gas hydrate reservoirs, the sediments of the Black Sea appear to be generally fine grained with high clay content. Sandy-silt and silty sand layers in turbidites of the Black Sea might be potential producible hydrate reservoirs but these sediments are fine. As well as turbidites, separate thin sand layers might be potential gas hydrate reservoirs as an energy source in the Black Sea. 相似文献
12.
Model of palaeoenvironmental evolution of the Black Sea region during the last glacial maximum—Holocene 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
I. Genov 《Oceanology》2009,49(4):540-557
A model for the palaeoenvironmental evolution of the Black Sea and its adjacent basins during the past 20.000 years, in which
variations in sedimentation, erosion, and hydrologic processes as a result of climatic change are taken into consideration,
is developed. The data used include those from five cruises in the Black Sea with the participation of the author, seismo-acoustic
data in the possession of the Institute of Oceanology in Varna, and data from the published literature. The most important
result is that the water level of the Black Sea is controlled largely by that of the Marmara Sea via the Bosporus sill. The
water circulation in the south part of the Bosporus channel as natural regulative mechanism of the Black Sea level during
11800–9000 yr C14 BP is produced. A succession of climatic and water conditions for the Black Sea by pollen analysis is presented. The linear
ridges on the Black Sea shelf as result of the lower Holocene regression are proved by means of a stratigraphic interpretation
of the seismo-acoustic profiles. The levels of the Black Sea, Marmara Sea, and Mediterranean at regarded intervals of time
are presented. An attempt at explanation of maximum number of facts from the study region with this model is made. 相似文献
13.
The Black Sea dynamics for two decades (1993–2012) is analyzed. The study is carried out in numerical simulation with the use of a circulation model and assimilation of satellite measurements of free surface elevations and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The Black Sea circulation model has a spatial resolution of 4.8 km and 35 vertical levels, which thicken toward the surface. Arrays of ERA-Interim data are used for simulating the atmospheric forcing. A set of 3D arrays of the Black Sea hydrophysical fields is calculated on a regular grid with a time resolution of 24 h. The results are analyzed and compared with available contact measurements of temperature and salinity. This comparison shows a quite good quality of the resulted hydrophysical fields of the Black Sea. 相似文献
14.
Forecasting of tsunami wave heights at the Russian coast of the Black Sea is discussed. Prognostic numerical calculations
of tsunamis were carried out for the tsunami sources uniformly distributed in the Black Sea basin (a total of 55 events).
Their results are compared with the results of numerical modeling of the historical events (in 1939 and 1966) and the data
of not numerous measurements. A preliminary forecast is made on this basis for the tsunami wave heights along the Russian
coast of the Black Sea. 相似文献
15.
Thermal structure of the crust in the Black Sea: comparative analysis of magnetic and heat flow data
V. I. Starostenko M. N. Dolmaz R. I. Kutas O. M. Rusakov E. Oksum Z. M. Hisarli M. Okyar U. Y. Kalyoncuoglu H. E. Tutunsatar O. V. Legostaeva 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2014,35(4):345-359
This paper presents the first study of mapping of the Curie point depth (CPD) from magnetic data for the Black Sea and a comparison with a classical thermal modeling from heat flow data. The provided relationship between radially averaged power spectrum of the magnetic anomalies and the depths to the magnetic sources of the Black Sea vary from 22 to 36 km. Deepening of CPDs observed in the western and eastern Black Sea basins correspond with the thickest sediment areas, whereas the shallow CPDs are related to the Mid-Black Sea Ridge and thin sediment areas at the costal side of the Black Sea. For comparison, the temperature field was also modeled from heat flow data from the Black Sea along three approximately north–south directed profiles corresponding to known DSS soundings. The Curie isotherm along the profiles occurs at depths of 22–35 km. A comparison of the results of the two independent methods reveals only 8–10 % discrepancy. This discrepancy is equal to an accuracy of temperature determination from heat flow data. 相似文献
16.
17.
The HY-1A satellite is the first oceanic satellite of China. During the winter of 2002～2003, the data of the HY-1A were applied to the sea ice monitoring and forecasting for the Bohai Sea of China for the first time. The sea ice retrieval system of the HY-1A has been constructed. It receives 1B data from the satellite, outputs sea ice images and provides digital products of ice concentration, ice thickness and ice edge, which can be used as important information for sea ice monitoring and the initial fields of the numeric sea ice forecast and as one of the reference data for the sea ice forecasting verification. The sea ice retrieval system of the satellite is described, including its processes, methods and parameters. The retrieving results and their application to the sea ice monitoring and forecasting for the Bohai Sea are also discussed. 相似文献
18.
The long-term evolution of the Black Sea dynamics (1980–2020) is reconstructed by numerical simulation. The model of the Black Sea circulation has 4.8 km horizontal spatial resolution and 40 levels in z-coordinates. The mixing processes in the upper layer are parameterized by Mellor-Yamada turbulent model. For the sea surface boundary conditions, atmospheric forcing functions were used, provided for the Black Sea region by the Euro mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) from the COSMO-CLM regional climate model. These data have a spatial resolution of 14 km and a daily temporal resolution. To evaluate the quality of the hydrodynamic fields derived from the simulation, they were compared with in-situ hydrological measurements and similar results from physical reanalysis of the Black Sea. 相似文献
19.
The HY-1A satellite is the first oceanic satellite of China. During the winter of 2002-2003, the data of the HY-1A were applied to the sea ice monitoring and forecasting for the Bohai Sea of China for the fhst time. The sea ice retrieval system of the HY-1A has been constructed. It receives 1B data from the satellite, outputs sea ice images and provides digital products of ice concentration, ice thickness and ice edge, which can be used as important information for sea ice monitoring and the initial fields of the numeric sea ice forecast and as one of the reference data for the sea ice forecasting verification. The sea ice retrieval system of the satellite is described, including its processes, methods and parameters. The retrieving results and their application to the sea ice monitoring and forecasting for the Bohai Sea are also discussed. 相似文献
20.
An energetically-balanced model has been used to perform an eddy-resolving experiment on the calculation of the baroclinic circulation in the Black Sea. As the initial and boundary conditions, historical data on the density and tangential wind stress for the summer season have been used. Following the integration of a set of model equations, an array of anticyclonic eddies formed on days 50–60 on the margins of the Black Sea rim current. Off the Caucasus, Crimean, and Bulgarian coast, anticyclonic eddies are shown to be quasi-stationary. The north-western Black Sea and Anatolia coastal zone are areas of Black Sea rim current instability, where synoptic eddies — both cyclonic and anticyclonic — are generated.Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin. 相似文献