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1.
Rainfall-induced landslides (RILs) have been a source of social and economic disruption in the mountainous Baguio area in northern Philippines. Prolonged heavy rainfall usually happens during tropical cyclone and southwest monsoon activity. A pragmatic approach to RIL mitigation is to develop rainfall-based early warning. We implemented a modified regression method to derive the empirical minimum intensity (I)–duration (D) threshold I = 6.46 D ?0.28 and a normalized ID threshold NI = 0.002 D ?0.28 for rainfall duration ranging between 24 and 264 h. Using a separate data set to evaluate the applicability of the threshold, 93% of the landslide-triggering rainfall events fell above the derived threshold. RILs also occurred when 24-h rainfall was 0.02–28% of the mean annual precipitation or after accumulating at least 500 mm of rainfall from the onset of the rainy season. The thresholds may be further refined as more landslide data become available in the future.  相似文献   

2.
Experimental analysis and modelling of shallow landslides   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  
The paper presents the results of some experimental tests reproducing the triggering mechanism of a special kind of shallow landslides induced by rainfalls (soil slip) in a physical 1-g model. The experimental data have been employed to verify the capability of a simplified stability model to describe the phenomenon and to back-analyse its occurrence in a case history (Pizzo d’Alvano, Campania Region 1998). The method enables a direct correlation between the safety factor of a slope and rainfall intensity, as well as antecedent rainfalls.  相似文献   

3.
In order to generate early warning for landslides, it is necessary to address the spatial and temporal aspects of slope failure. The present study deals with the temporal dimension of slope failures taking into account the most widespread and frequent triggering factor, i.e. rainfall, along the National Highway-58 from Rishikesh to Mana in the Garhwal Himalaya, India. Using the post-processed three-hourly rainfall intensity and duration values from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis and the time-tagged landslide records along this route, an intensity–duration (I–D)-based threshold has been derived as I?=?58.7D ?1.12 for the rainfall-triggered landslides. The validation of the I–D threshold has shown 81.6 % accuracy for landslides which occurred in 2005 and 2006. From this result, it can be inferred that landslides in the study area can be initiated by continuous rainfall of over 12 h with about 4-mm/h intensity. Using the mean annual precipitation, a normalized intensity–duration relation of NI?=?0.0612D ?1.17 has also been derived. In order to account for the influence of the antecedent rainfall in slope failure initiation, the daily, 3-day cumulative, and 15- and 30-day antecedent rainfall values associated with landslides had been subjected to binary logistic regression using landslide as the dichotomous dependent variable. The logistic regression retained the daily, 3-day cumulative and 30-day antecedent rainfall values as significant predictors influencing slope failure. This model has been validated through receiver operating characteristic curve analysis using a set of samples which had not been used in the model building; an accuracy of 95.1 % has been obtained. Cross-validation of I–D-based thresholding and antecedent rainfall-based probability estimation with slope failure initiation shows 81.9 % conformity between the two in correctly predicting slope stability. Using the I–D-based threshold and the antecedent rainfall-based regression model, early warning can be generated for moderate to high landslide-susceptible areas (which can be delineated using spatial integration of preconditioning factors). Temporal predictions where both the methods converge indicate higher chances of slope failures for areas predisposed to instability due to unfavourable geo-environmental and topographic parameters and qualify for enhanced slope failure warning. This method can be verified for further rainfall seasons and can also be refined progressively with finer resolutions (spatial and temporal) of rainfall intensity and multiple rain gauge stations covering a larger spatial extent.  相似文献   

4.
Majority of landslides in the Indian sub-continent are triggered by rainfall. Several attempts in the global scenario have been made to establish rainfall thresholds in terms of intensity-duration and antecedent rainfall models on global, regional and local scales for the occurrence of landslides. However, in the context of the Indian Himalayas, the rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrences are not yet understood fully. Neither on regional scale nor on local scale, establishing such rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrences in Indian Himalayas has yet been attempted. This paper presents an attempt towards deriving local rainfall thresholds for landslides based on daily rainfall data in and around Chamoli-Joshimath region of the Garhwal Himalayas, India. Around 128 landslides taken place in last 4 years from 2009 to 2012 have been studied to derive rainfall thresholds. Out of 128 landslides, however, rainfall events pertaining to 81 landslides were analysed to yield an empirical intensity–duration threshold for landslide occurrences. The rainfall threshold relationship fitted to the lower boundary of the landslide triggering rainfall events is I?=?1.82 D ?0.23 (I?=?rainfall intensity in millimeters per hour and D?=?duration in hours). It is revealed that for rainfall events of shorter duration (≤24 h) with a rainfall intensity of 0.87 mm/h, the risk of landslide occurrence in this part of the terrain is expected to be high. Also, the role of antecedent rainfall in causing landslides was analysed by considering daily rainfall at failure and different period cumulative rainfall prior to failure considering all 128 landslides. It is observed that a minimum 10-day antecedent rainfall of 55 mm and a 20-day antecedent rainfall of 185 mm are required for the initiation of landslides in this area. These rainfall thresholds presented in this paper may be improved with the hourly rainfall data vis-à-vis landslide occurrences and also data of later years. However, these thresholds may be used in landslide warning systems for this particular region of the Garhwal Himalayas to guide the traffic and provide safety to the tourists travelling along this pilgrim route during monsoon seasons.  相似文献   

5.
This study applied the soil water index (SWI), which can represent the conceptual soil water contents as influenced by present and antecedent rainfall, for analyzing rainfall-induced mass movements in Taiwan. The SWI has been used in Japan for nationwide mass movement warnings. This study examined whether the SWI can be also applied to Taiwan, which has a climatic condition and high-relief topography similar to Japan. We used data for mass movements for 2006–2012 (n = 263) for the main analyses and those for 2013 (n = 19) for verification. The SWI values before the rainfall events that triggered mass movements were used as the indicator of the antecedent rainfall condition. We found that when SWI values before rainfall events increased from <17.5 to >35, the upper threshold of rainfall conditions needed for triggering mass movements significantly decreased. The mass movements in 2013 support this finding. We classified rainfall conditions for triggering mass movements into two types, short duration–high intensity (SH) and long duration–low intensity (LL), based on a principal component analysis (PCA). The SH type is associated with a rapid increase in SWI, and the LL type is associated with a gradual rise and subsequent constancy of SWI except in some extremely long rainfall events. Based on this result, we modeled the general trend of the time series changes in SWI for the two types, which was verified using the mass movements in 2013.  相似文献   

6.
A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures   总被引：22，自引：0，他引：22  
Pietro Aleotti   《Engineering Geology》2004,73(3-4):247-265
It is widely recognised that soil slips and debris flows are triggered by short intense storms. Owing its geologic, geomorphologic and climatic settings, the Piedmont Region (NW Italy) is highly prone to the occurrence of this kind of landslides. In the last two centuries, in fact, a total of 105 severe meteoric events which triggered shallow failures occurred and, of these, 18 events took place from 1990 to 2002. A fair number of rainfall thresholds have been proposed in the literature, defined both on empirical or on physical bases. Empirical thresholds are defined collecting rainfall data for landslide meteoric events and for events without landslides, while physical thresholds are based on numerical models that consider the relation between rainfall, pore pressure and slope stability. The main objective of this paper is the identification of the empirical triggering thresholds for the Piedmont Region. Four meteoric events were selected and analysed (November 4–5, 1994; July 7–8, 1996; April 27–30, 2000; October 13–16, 2000) because they supply a wide range of variation for both rainfall parameters (duration, intensity, cumulative rainfalls) and the number of induced landslides. In the intensity–duration plot, the critical limit is described by the equation: I=19D−0.50 (where I=rainfall intensity expressed in mm/h and D=rainfall duration expressed in hours). Such a limit is traced to envelop 90% of the points on the graph. In the NI–D diagram the triggering thresholds are given by the equations NI=0.76D−0.33 and NI=4.62D−0.79 (where NI=normalised intensity with respect to the annual precipitation, MAP, expressed in %, [(mm/h)/PMA]×100). In the article the different meaning of these thresholds is discussed. Finally, the diagram NI–NCR is proposed; the triggering threshold is given by the expression: NI=−0.09ln[NCR]+0.54 (where NCR is the normalised cumulative critical rainfall, [mm/PMA]×100). The application of the triggering thresholds as a fundamental element in a warning system dedicated to the safeguarding of population in landslide-prone areas is discussed. In detail an operating procedure which is presently being verified and tested in the studied area is described.  相似文献   

7.
Review of the literature on the reconstruction of the rainfall responsible for slope failures reveals that criteria for the identification of rainfall events are lacking or somewhat subjective. To overcome this problem, we developed an algorithm for the objective and reproducible reconstruction of rainfall events and of rainfall conditions responsible for landslides. The algorithm consists of three distinct modules for (i) the reconstruction of distinct rainfall events, in terms of duration (D, in h) and cumulated event rainfall (E, in mm), (ii) the identification of multiple ED rainfall conditions responsible for the documented landslides, and (iii) the definition of critical rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrences. The algorithm uses pre-defined parameters to account for different seasonal and climatic settings. We applied the algorithm in Sicily, southern Italy, using rainfall measurements obtained from a network of 169 rain gauges, and information on 229 rainfall-induced landslides occurred between July 2002 and December 2012. The algorithm identified 29,270 rainfall events and reconstructed 472 ED rainfall conditions as possible triggers of the observed landslides. The algorithm exploited the multiple rainfall conditions to define objective and reproducible empirical rainfall thresholds for the possible initiation of landslide in Sicily. The calculated thresholds may be implemented in an operational early warning system for shallow landslide forecasting.  相似文献   

8.
Rainfall infiltration is the main factor that causes slope instability. To study the effect of hydraulic parameters on the final saturation line and stability of slopes, a numerical slope model is established with a saturated–unsaturated seepage analysis method. Analysis results show the following, (1) When parameter a increases, the effective rainfall duration decreases linearly, and the ultimate safety factor increases gradually; when parameter m increases, the effective rainfall duration increases linearly, and the ultimate safety factor decreases linearly; when parameter n increases, both the effective rainfall duration and the ultimate safety factor decrease first and then remain stable. (2) When the saturated permeability coefficient decreases, the effective rainfall duration presents a crescent trend, and the ultimate safety factor decreases first and then remains the same after rainfall intensity exceeds the saturated permeability coefficient of soil. (3) When rainfall intensity is less than the saturated permeability coefficient of soil, the location of the final saturation line rises as the saturated permeability coefficient decreases and is thus independent of parameters a, m, and n.  相似文献   

9.
Chao Ma  Jiayong Deng  Rui Wang 《Landslides》2018,15(12):2475-2485
The occurrence of debris flow from channel-bed failure is occasionally noted in small and steeply sloping watersheds where channelized water flow dominates debris flow initiation. On August 12, 2016, a debris flow from channel-bed failures occurred in the Caozhuangzi Watershed of the Longtan Basin, Miyun, Beijing. Rainfall records over 10-min intervals and field investigations including channel morphology measurements were used to study the triggering conditions and erosion process. The results indicated that the occurrence of this event lagged the peak 10-min rainfall interval and that the cumulative rainfall prior to the occurrence time played an important role in its formation. A mean 10-min rainfall intensity–duration expression in the form of I10?=?5.0?×?D?0.21, where I10 denotes the mean 10-min rainfall intensity and D is the rainfall duration ranging from 10 to 60 h, was proposed. The debris flows have low proportions of grain size fractions <?0.1 mm and higher fractions of grains 0.1–2 mm in size, indicating that the flow had low viscosity and was coarse-grain dominated. Channel morphology analysis revealed that abrupt changes in topography in the study area, including a steep section, a concave stream bank area, and a partial concave stream section were eroded more extensively than other sites. The maximum sediment erosion volume and erosion depth were not proportional to the variation in stream gradient. Consideration of the degree of erosion in the channel at sites with abrupt morphology changes, the maximum sediment erosion volume, and the erosion depth and volume at the initial channel site and downstream region of forest area together showed that the prime factor controlling erosion was entrained sediment volume. This work, thus, provides a case study regarding the triggering conditions of runoff-triggered debris flows and the topographical changes by debris flow erosion.  相似文献   

10.
Given its geological and climatic conditions and its rugged orography, Asturias is one of the most landslide prone areas in the North of Spain. Most of the landslides occur during intense rainfall episodes. Thus, precipitation is considered the main triggering factor in the study area, reaching average annual values of 960 mm. Two main precipitation patterns are frequent: (i) long-lasting periods of moderate rainfall during autumn and winter and (ii) heavy short rainfall episodes during spring and early summer. In the present work, soil moisture conditions in the locations of 84 landslides are analysed during two rainfall episodes, which represent the most common precipitation patterns: October–November 2008 and June 2010. Empirical data allowed the definition of available water capacity percentages of 99–100% as critical soil moisture conditions for the landslide triggering. Intensity-duration rainfall thresholds were calculated for each episode, considering the periods with sustained high soil moisture levels before the occurrence of each analysed landslide event. For this purpose, data from daily water balance models and weather stations were used. An inverse relationship between the duration of the precipitation and its intensity, consistent with published intensity-duration thresholds, was observed, showing relevant seasonal differences.  相似文献   

11.
Soil particle-size distribution (PSD) is an important index for soil classification because it has large influences on soil hydrological characteristics, salinity, fertility, erodibility, nutrient content, swelling/shrinking, and degradation. We present a case study of the fractal characteristics of soil PSD and its relationship with soil properties of gravel-mulched fields in an arid area of northwestern China using single-fractal calculation. Particle size was unimodally distributed within the narrow range of 20–100 μm, with silt as the most common component. Horizontally, silt content was the highest, followed by sand and clay contents. Vertically, clay content increased with depth, while there were no obvious change rules for both silt and sand contents. The volume fractal dimension (D) of PSD ranged from 2.4307 to 2.5260, increased with the content of fine particles but decreased with the content of coarse particles. D was correlated positively with soil-water content and salt content and negatively with bulk density. The saturated soil-water content was strongly correlated negatively with silt content (p < 0.01) and positively with sand content (p < 0.01). The results indicate that D can be a potential indicator of the physical and chemical properties of soil and can also provide a theoretical basis and technical guidance for the effective use and management of the region.  相似文献   

12.
Landslides are a significant hazard in many parts of the world and represent an important geohazard in China. Rainfall is the primary triggering agent for landslides and often used for prediction slope failures. However, the relationship between rainfall and landslide occurrences is very complex. Great efforts have been made on the study of regional rainfall-induced landslide forecasting models in recent years; still, there is no commonly accepted method for rainfall-induced landslide prediction. In this paper, the quantitative antecedent soil water status (ASWS) model is applied to investigate the influence of daily and antecedent rainfall on the triggering of landslides and debris flows. The study area is Wudu County in Gansu Province, an area which exhibits frequent landslide occurrences. The results demonstrate a significant influence of high intensity rainfall events on landslide triggering. Still, antecedent rainfall conditions are very important and once a threshold of approximately 20 mm is exceeded, landslides and debris flows can occur even without additional rainfall. The study presented could also facilitate the implementation of a regional forecasting scheme once additional validation has been carried out.  相似文献   

13.
Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds are commonly used to predict the temporal occurrence of debris flows and shallow landslides. Typically, thresholds are subjectively defined as the upper limit of peak rainstorm intensities that do not produce debris flows and landslides, or as the lower limit of peak rainstorm intensities that initiate debris flows and landslides. In addition, peak rainstorm intensities are often used to define thresholds, as data regarding the precise timing of debris flows and associated rainfall intensities are usually not available, and rainfall characteristics are often estimated from distant gauging locations. Here, we attempt to improve the performance of existing threshold-based predictions of post-fire debris-flow occurrence by utilizing data on the precise timing of debris flows relative to rainfall intensity, and develop an objective method to define the threshold intensities. We objectively defined the thresholds by maximizing the number of correct predictions of debris flow occurrence while minimizing the rate of both Type I (false positive) and Type II (false negative) errors. We identified that (1) there were statistically significant differences between peak storm and triggering intensities, (2) the objectively defined threshold model presents a better balance between predictive success, false alarms and failed alarms than previous subjectively defined thresholds, (3) thresholds based on measurements of rainfall intensity over shorter duration (≤60 min) are better predictors of post-fire debris-flow initiation than longer duration thresholds, and (4) the objectively defined thresholds were exceeded prior to the recorded time of debris flow at frequencies similar to or better than subjective thresholds. Our findings highlight the need to better constrain the timing and processes of initiation of landslides and debris flows for future threshold studies. In addition, the methods used to define rainfall thresholds in this study represent a computationally simple means of deriving critical values for other studies of nonlinear phenomena characterized by thresholds.  相似文献   

14.
For the assessment of shallow landslides triggered by rainfall, the physically based model coupling the infinite slope stability analysis with the hydrological modeling in nearly saturated soil has commonly been used due to its simplicity. However, in that model the rainfall infiltration in unsaturated soil could not be reliably simulated because a linear diffusion-type Richards’ equation rather than the complete Richards’ equation was used. In addition, the effect of matric suction on the shear strength of soil was not actually considered. Therefore, except the shallow landslide in saturated soil due to groundwater table rise, the shallow landslide induced by the loss in unsaturated shear strength due to the dissipation of matric suction could not be reliably assessed. In this study, a physically based model capable of assessing shallow landslides in variably saturated soils is developed by adopting the complete Richards’ equation with the effect of slope angle in the rainfall infiltration modeling and using the extended Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion to describe the unsaturated shear strength in the soil failure modeling. The influence of rainfall intensity and duration on shallow landslide is investigated using the developed model. The result shows that the rainfall intensity and duration seem to have similar influence on shallow landslides respectively triggered by the increase of positive pore water pressure in saturated soil and induced by the dissipation of matric suction in unsaturated soil. The rainfall duration threshold decreases with the increase in rainfall intensity, but remains constant for large rainfall intensity.  相似文献   

15.
Wei Zhou  Chuan Tang 《Landslides》2014,11(5):877-887
The Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area is frequently hit by heavy rainfall, which often triggers sediment-related disasters, such as shallow landslides, debris flows, and related natural events, sometimes causing tremendous damage to lives, property, infrastructure, and environment. The assessment of the rainfall thresholds for debris flow occurrence is very important in order to improve forecasting and for risk management. In the context of the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area, however, the rainfall thresholds for triggering debris flows are not well understood. With the aim of defining the critical rainfall thresholds for this area, a detailed analysis of the main rainstorm events was carried out. This paper presents 11 rainfall events that induced debris flows which occurred between 2008 and 2012 after the Wenchuan earthquake. The rainfall thresholds were defined in terms of mean rainfall intensity I, rainfall duration D, and normalized using the mean annual precipitation (MAP). An ID threshold and a normalized I MAP D threshold graph could be set up for the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area which forms the lower boundary of the domain with debris flow-triggering rainfall events. The rainfall threshold curves obtained for the study area were compared with the local, regional, and global curves proposed by various authors. The results suggest that debris flow initiation in the study area almost requires a higher amount of rainfall and greater intensity than elsewhere. The comparison of rainfall intensity prior to and after the earthquake clearly indicates that the critical rainfall intensity necessary to trigger debris flows decreased after the earthquake. Rainfall thresholds presented in this paper are generalized, so that they can be used in debris flow warning systems in areas with the same geology as the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area.  相似文献   

16.
The impact of rainfall-induced shallow landslides on hillslope sediment discharge is not well understood. This paper reports experimental measurements of sediment discharge after water-induced shallow landslides are triggered on sandy soil in a flume under simulated rainfall. The principal aim of the research was to investigate how varying soil depth affects the location and occurrence of shallow slope failures, as well as how it affects sediment yields downslope. Four experiments were conducted using the same sandy soil and a 30° and 10° compound slope configuration under average rainfall intensity of 50 mm h− 1 for up to 390 min. Soil depths were set to 200, 300, 400 and 500 mm. Engineering and geotechnical properties of the soil were examined. Sediment discharge and runoff were collected from the flume outlet at 15 minute intervals. Changes in the soil slope profiles after landslides and soil physical properties resulted from soil armouring, under continuous rainfall were also recorded. Results showed that sediment yields at the flume outlet, before landslides occurred, were very low and limited to the finer soil particles as would be expected for a sandy soil. However subsequent variations in sediment discharge were strongly related to failure events and their proximity to the outlet. Sediment yield was also affected by the original soil depth; the greater the depth, the higher the sediment yields. Post-failure reductions in sediment discharge were observed and attributed to post-failure slope stabilization under continuing rainfall and extensive soil armouring near the flume outlet. The results provide a clear linkage between landslides and sediment discharge due to hydrological processes occurring in the hillslope. This knowledge is being used to develop a model to predict sediment discharges from hillslopes following shallow landslide events.  相似文献   

17.
浙江省滑坡灾害预警预报的降雨阀值研究   总被引：28，自引：0，他引：28  
根据浙江省降雨的特点,将降雨分为台风降雨和非台风降雨,采用统计方法研究了区域性滑坡灾害与台风区和非台风区降雨量及降雨强度的相关性,通过相关性分析确定了有效降雨量模型;得到了浙江省区域性滑坡发生的临界降雨量和降雨强度阀值,为实时时间预警提供了定量依据;将滑坡灾害的空间易发性与降雨量和降雨强度相结合确定了滑坡灾害的空间预警区划指标和等级;最后初步研究了滑坡发生的滞后时间。  相似文献   

18.
The influences of rainfall patterns on shallow landslides due to the dissipation of matric suction are examined in this study. Four representative rainfall patterns including the uniform, advanced, intermediated, and delayed rainfalls are adopted. The results show that not only the occurrence of shallow landslides but also the failure depth and the time of failure are affected by the rainfall pattern. The different rainfall patterns seem to have the same minimum landslide-triggering rainfall amount. There is a rainfall duration threshold for landslide occurrence for a rainfall event with larger than the minimum landslide-triggering rainfall amount. For each rainfall pattern, the rainfall duration threshold for landslide occurrence decreases to constant with the increase of rainfall amount. The uniform rainfall has the least rainfall duration threshold for landslide occurrence, followed by the advanced rainfall, and then the intermediated rainfall. For each rainfall pattern, the failure depths and the times of failure from the same amount of rainfall with different durations could be largely different. In addition, the differences of the failure depths and the times of failure between various rainfall patterns with the same amount and duration of rainfall could be also significant. The failure depth and the time of failure, as compared with the occurrence of shallow landslides, are more sensitive to the rainfall condition. In other words, in comparison with the evaluation of the occurrence of shallow landslides, it needs more accurate rainfall prediction to achieve reliable estimations of the failure depth and the time of failure.  相似文献   

19.
Several giant debris flows occurred in southwestern China after the Wenchuan earthquake, causing serious casualties and economic losses. Debris flows were frequently triggered after the earthquake. A relatively accurate prediction of these post-seismic debris flows can help to reduce the consequent damages. Existing debris flow prediction is almost based on the study of the relationship between post-earthquake debris flows and rainfall. The relationship between the occurrence of post-seismic debris flows and characteristic rainfall patterns was studied in this paper. Fourteen rainfall events related to debris flows that occurred in four watersheds in the Wenchuan earthquake area were collected. By analyzing the rainfall data, characteristics of rainfall events that triggered debris flows after the earthquake were obtained. Both the critical maximum rainfall intensity and average rainfall intensity increased with the time. To describe the critical conditions for debris flow initiation, intensity–duration curves were constructed, which shows how the threshold for triggering debris flows increased each year. The time that the critical rainfall intensities of debris flow occurrences return to the value prior to the earthquake could not be estimated due to the absent rainfall data before the earthquake. Rainfall-triggering response patterns could be distinguished for rainfall-induced debris flows. The critical rainfall patterns related to debris flows could be divided on the basis of antecedent rainfall duration and intensity into three categories: (1) a rapid triggering response pattern, (2) an intermediate triggering response pattern, and (3) a slow triggering response pattern. The triggering response patterns are closely related to the initiation mechanisms of post-earthquake debris flows. The main difference in initiation mechanisms and difference in triggering patterns by rainfall is regulated by the infiltration process and determined by a number of parameters, such as hydro-mechanical soil characteristics, the thickness of the soil, and the slope gradient. In case of a rapid triggering response rainfall pattern, the hydraulic conductivity and initial moisture content are the main impact factors. Runoff erosion and rapid loading of solid material is the dominant process. In case of a rainfall pattern with a slow triggering response, the thickness and strength of the soil, high hydraulic conductivity, and rainfall intensity are the impact factors. Probably slope failure is the most dominant process initiating debris flows. In case of an intermediate triggering response pattern, both debris flow initiation mechanisms (runoff erosion and slope failure) can play a role.  相似文献   

20.
Rainfall-induced landslides in Hulu Kelang area, Malaysia   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  
Hulu Kelang is known as one of the most landslide-prone areas in Malaysia. The area has been constantly hit by landslide hazards since 1990s. This paper provides an insight into the mechanism of rainfall-induced landslide in the Hulu Kelang area. Rainfall patterns prior to the occurrences of five selected case studies were first analyzed. The results showed that daily rainfall information is insufficient for predicting landslides in the area. Rainfalls of longer durations, i.e., 3–30 days prior to the landslides should be incorporated into the prediction model. Numerical simulations on a selected case study demonstrated that both matric suction and factor of safety decreased steadily over time until they reached the lowest values on the day of landslide occurrence. Redistribution of infiltrated rainwater in the soil mass could be a reason for the slow response of failure mechanism to rainfall. Based on 21 rainfall-induced landslides that had occurred in the area, three rainfall thresholds were developed as attempts to predict the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslide. The rainfall intensity–duration threshold developed based on the local rainfall conditions provided a reasonably good prediction to the landslide occurrence. The cumulative 3- versus 30-day antecedent precipitation index threshold chart was capable of giving the most reliable prediction with the limiting threshold line for major landslide yielded a reliability of 97.6 %.  相似文献   

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