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1.
Coral reefs are important ecosystems that not only provide shelter and breeding ground for many marine species, but can also control of carbon dioxide level in ocean and act as coastal protection mechanism. Reduction of coral reefs at Singapore coastal waters (SCW) region remains as an important study to identify the environmental impact from its busy industrial activities especially at the surrounding of Jurong Island in the south. This kind of study at SCW was often being related to issues such as turbidity, sedimentation, pollutant transport (from industry activities) effects in literatures, but seldom investigated from the thermal change aspect. In this paper, a computational model was constructed using the Delft3D hydrodynamic module to produce wave simulations on sea regions surrounding Singapore Island. The complicated semi-diurnal and diurnal tidal wave events experienced by SCW were simulated for 2 weeks duration and compared to the Admiralty measured data. To simulate the thermal mapping at the south Singapore coastal waters (SSCW) region, we first adapted a conversion of industrial to thermal discharge; then from the discharge affected area a thermal map was further computed to compare with the measured coral map. The outcomes show that the proposed novel thermal modelling approach has quite precisely simulated the coral map at SSCW, with the condition that the near-field thermal sources are considered (with the coverage area in the limit of 20 km × 20 km). 相似文献
2.
Many studies have been carried out in the past to provide solutions to the threat of chemicals to the ecosystem. However, the basic scientific capability to predict the risk of adverse effects on the ecological system has not kept pace with society's increasing demand for uses of chemicals. As a scientific methodology for quantifying the risk to the environment associated with exposure to chemicals, ecological risk assessment is increasingly important in environmental problem solving. The purpose of this paper is to present a methodology for conducting ecological risk assessment using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. A systematic discussion on elements of ecological risk assessment is presented. A framework of ecological risk assessment is explained with the help of the Persian Gulf environmental problem as a case study. The study was based on the output of a long-range transport model of soot deposition in the Gulf. Results of the assessment using the deterministic and probabilistic approaches are discussed. 相似文献
3.
海堤地震稳定性的概率分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
由于土坡稳定性分析实际上为一非确值性的问题，故一般通用的安全系数法分析海堤的稳定性不甚合理［１］。为考虑这一问题的随机性，文中引入概率分析的方法。最后基于所建议的概率方法分析了某实际海堤的地震稳定性，给出了该海堤稳定程度的定量评价。 相似文献
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5.
The paper presents an approach for the robust optimization of a bulk carrier conceptual design, subject to uncertain operating and environmental conditions. The uncertainties involved in the optimization process are addressed and a general formulation for robust design is given. Specifically, the uncertainties involved in the decision making process are taken into account by means of their probabilistic distributions. The expected values and the standard deviations of the relevant quantities are assessed and included in the optimization objectives, whereas the constraints are evaluated in the worst case. This leads to a robust design able to keep a good performance in the whole probabilistic operating scenario. A particle swarm optimization algorithm is used for the global minimization process, minimizing the expectation and the standard deviation of the unit transportation cost. 相似文献
6.
This paper studies sea level anomaly (SLA) behaviour in Malacca and Singapore straits which serve part of a major maritime trade route between Indian and Pacific Ocean using both observed data and numerical model. Spatio-temporal behaviour of SLA in the region is analyzed based on 15 years of in-situ and remote sensing data. Results show that SLA signatures can be distinctly different in the two straits, with vastly opposite behaviours during certain months. By further analyzing spatial dependency of observed SLA in the region, SLA in Malacca and Singapore straits are found to be under the influence of Indian Ocean and South China Sea, respectively. Based on this insight, a numerical model is built with the appropriate non-tidal forcing derived from meteorological model and satellite dataset to properly represent SLA in Malacca and Singapore straits with Root Mean Square Error of less than 10 cm. With this well calibrated model, the effect of different types of forcing on volume flux through the straits is investigated. Combined tidal and non-tidal forcing in the model gives 4 to 7 × 1011 m3 of annual net westward volume flux through the straits which is four to seven times higher than that of tidal forcing alone. Furthermore with this combined forcing, a distinct seasonal trend with westward net flow during northeast monsoon (November to March) and eastward net flow during southwest monsoon (May to September) can be observed through the straits in the model which is not observed with tidal forcing. The findings of this paper highlight the importance of these non-tidal forcing in the model to obtain accurate SLA and flow representation in the straits that is vital to environmental fate and transport modelling during operational forecast. 相似文献
7.
In traditional naval architecture design methodologies optimization of the hull and propeller are done in two separate phases. This sequential approach can lead to designs that have sub-optimal fuel consumption and, thus, higher operational costs. This work presents a method to optimize the propeller–hull system simultaneously in order to design a vessel to have minimal fuel consumption. The optimization uses a probabilistic mission profile, propeller–hull interaction, and engine information to determine the coupled system with minimum fuel cost over its operational life. The design approach is tested on a KCS SIMMAN container ship using B-series propeller data and is shown to reduce fuel consumption compared to an optimized traditional design approach. 相似文献
8.
He Guangne Yang Bin
Professor Dalian University of Technology Dalian Engineer Design Research Institute of Shanghai Harbour Engineering Shanghai 《中国海洋工程》1995,(4)
The current safety factor method for evaluating earth embankment stability is not very rational since the assessment of slope stability is really an uncertainty problem. In order to consider the random property of this problem, the probabilistic analysis is introduced herein. Finally, the stability of a real beach earth embankment is analysed by means of the suggested probabilitic approach. It may be seen that the results of analysis can represent the numerical assessment of the degree of seismic stability. 相似文献
9.
《Oceanic Engineering, IEEE Journal of》2007,32(1):1-2
The 23 papers in this special issue focus on mine burial processes. The special issues begins with the guest editors providing a short history and introduction, followed by five papers that describe field and laboratory experiments, models, and sediment strength measurement related to mine burial by impact. The next nine papers describe instrumentation, field measurements, and modeling of mine burial by wave-induced scour. The next three papers describe laboratory experiments, simulations, and modeling of wave- and current induced scour, followed by three papers relating measurements, simulations, and modeling of sediment transport. The last two papers describe and provide examples of probabilistic MBPs systems intended for operational use. 相似文献
10.
Clay mineral composition and geotechnical index properties of marine clays collected from Singapore, Korea, and Japan were investigated, and the correlation of clay mineral composition with the consistency limits and activity of the clays was examined. Predominant clay minerals were kaolinite for Singapore clay, kaolinite, vermiculite, and illite for Pusan clay, and smectite for Hachirogata and Ariake clay from Japan. The activity of clay indicates that Singapore clay is classified as normal or inactive, Pusan clay as normal, and Hachirogata and Ariake clays mostly as active. Significant positive correlations were found between smectite percentage in bulk soil and the liquid and plastic limits of the clays. 相似文献
11.
Clay mineral composition and geotechnical index properties of marine clays collected from Singapore, Korea, and Japan were investigated, and the correlation of clay mineral composition with the consistency limits and activity of the clays was examined. Predominant clay minerals were kaolinite for Singapore clay, kaolinite, vermiculite, and illite for Pusan clay, and smectite for Hachirogata and Ariake clay from Japan. The activity of clay indicates that Singapore clay is classified as normal or inactive, Pusan clay as normal, and Hachirogata and Ariake clays mostly as active. Significant positive correlations were found between smectite percentage in bulk soil and the liquid and plastic limits of the clays. 相似文献
12.
This paper presents a new framework for probabilistic modelling of long-term beach evolution in the vicinity of detached breakwaters. The study focuses on the key physical processes contributing to beach variability over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Based on a one-line model, the framework is enhanced with sophisticated solutions for beach-wave-structure interaction, diffraction together with a treatment of varying tide level. The sediment transport rate is calibrated at regional and local levels using data from bespoke field campaigns and site-specific coefficients are proposed. Monte Carlo simulation is conducted for long-term shoreline simulation under a sequence of time varying sequence of waves, currents and tidal levels. The results of the Monte Carlo simulation give an insight into the statistical characteristics of beach behaviour within the defence system. In particular, regions within the scheme that are relatively stable and those that exhibit greater natural fluctuations are identified. 相似文献
13.
With the global wanning and sea level rising, it is widely recognized that there is an increasing tendency of typhoon occurrence frequency and intensity. The defenses code against typhoon attacks for nuclear power plant should be calibrated because of the increasing threat of typhoon disaster and severe consequences. This paper discusses the probabilistic approach of definitions about "probable maximum typhoon" and "probable maximum storm surge" in nuclear safety regulations of China and has made some design code calibrations by use of a newly proposed Double Layer Nested Multi-objective Probability Model (DLNMPM). 相似文献
14.
When waves break against seawalls, vertical breakwaters, piers or jetties, they abruptly transfer their momentum into the structure. This energy transfer is always spectacular and perpetually unrepeatable but can also be very violent and affect the stability and the integrity of coastal structures. Over the last 15 years, increasing awareness of wave-impact induced structural failures of maritime structures has emphasised the need for a more complete approach to dynamic responses, including effects of impulsive loads. At the same time, movement of design standards toward probabilistic approaches requires new statistical tools able to account for uncertainties in the variability of wave loading processes. This paper presents a new approach to the definition of loads for use in performance design of vertical coastal structures subject to breaking wave impacts. 相似文献
15.
《Oceanic Engineering, IEEE Journal of》2006,31(2):299-307
A common problem in sonar system prediction is that the ocean environment is not well known. Utilizing probabilistic based results from geoacoustic inversions we characterize parameters relevant to sonar performance. This paper describes the estimation of transmission loss and its statistical properties based on posterior parameter probabilities obtained from inversion of ocean acoustic array data. This problem is solved by first finding an ensemble of relevant environmental model parameters and the associated posterior probability using a likelihood based inversion of the acoustic array data. In a second step, each realization of these model parameters is weighted with their posterior probability to map into the transmission loss domain. This approach is illustrated using vertical-array data from a recent benchmark data set and from data acquired during the Asian Seas International Acoustics Experiment (ASIAEX) 2001 in the East China Sea. The environmental parameters are first estimated using a probabilistic-based geoacoustic inversion technique. Based on the posterior probability that each of these environmental models fits the ocean acoustic array data, each model is mapped into transmission loss. This enables us to compute a full probability distribution for the transmission loss at selected frequencies, ranges, and depths, which potentially could be used for sonar performance prediction. 相似文献
16.
An approach by which the scour depth and scour width below a fixed pipeline and scour depth around a circular vertical pile in random waves can be derived is presented. Here, the scour depth formulas by Sumer and Fredsøe [ASCE J. Waterw., Port, Coastal Ocean Eng. 116 (1990) 307] for pipelines and Sumer et al. [ASCE J. Waterw., Port, Coastal Ocean Eng. 114 (1992) 599] for vertical piles as well as the scour width formula by Sumer and Fredsøe [The Mechanics of Scour in the Marine Environment, World Scientific, Singapore, 2002] for pipelines combined with describing the waves as a stationary Gaussian narrow-band random process are used to derive the cumulative distribution functions of the scour depths and width. Comparisons are made between the present approach and random wave scour data. Tentative approaches to related random wave scour cases are also suggested. 相似文献
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18.
《Coastal Engineering》2001,42(2):155-162
It is studied whether the mass transport or energy transport is the proper viewpoint for internally generating waves in the extended Boussinesq equations of Nwogu [J. Waterw., Port, Coastal Ocean Eng. 119 (1993) 618–638]. Numerical solutions of the Boussinesq equations with the internal generation of sinusoidal waves show that the energy transport approach yields the required wave amplitude properly while the mass transport approach yields wave amplitude different from the required one by the ratio of phase velocity to energy velocity. The waves which pass through the wave generation point do not cause any numerical distortion while the incident waves are generated. The technique of internal generation of waves shows its capability of generating nonlinear cnoidal waves as well as linear sinusoidal waves. 相似文献
19.
《Coastal Engineering》2003,49(3):185-207
This paper introduces a hydrodynamic model that can predict the cross-shore transformation of wave height, on- and offshore orbital motion, and time-averaged cross-shore and longshore currents in a parametric and probabilistic mode. In the parametric mode, the computations are based on the root-mean-square wave height, the peak period, and the energy-weighted mean angle of incidence, while in the probabilistic mode a discrete number of classes with their own wave height, period, and angle of incidence is prescribed. Predictions of the two modes differ marginally and result in about the same error statistics when compared to data from laboratory and field experiments. Consistent with other probabilistic wave models, measured wave height distributions inside the surf zone were not reproduced accurately by the present probabilistic model. Although this could be remedied by introducing some variability around the breaker parameter, predictions of the other hydrodynamic parameters did not improve as a result. From a hydrodynamic point of view, it appears superfluous to use the rather time-consuming probabilistic mode for morphodynamic modeling; the parametric mode suffices. 相似文献
20.
《Marine Policy》2014
This paper analyzes International Maritime Organization (IMO) involvement in maritime cooperation regime in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore through multilateralism. It begins by introducing the maritime cooperation regime prior to 2001, which was mainly trilateral in nature through Tripartite Technical Expert Group on the Safety of Navigation (TTEG). Although TTEG managed to increase the level of safety of navigation in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore through the implementation of the Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS) in 1981 and Mandatory Ship Reporting System (STRAITREP) in 1998, such cooperation was beset by financial strain and conflict of interests. Subsequently, there was a change in the cooperation regime after 9/11 incident. This paper identifies that the change was contributed by the IMO through a methodology called multilateralism. Three important principles were adopted by IMO in implementing multilateralism in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore, namely generalized principles of conduct (respect for sovereignty and compliance with burden sharing principle under Article 43 of UNCLOS 1982), diffuse reciprocity, and indivisibility. This paper concludes that multilateralism by IMO has transformed trilateral cooperation into multilateral cooperation in the Straits of Malacca, combining state actors (littoral states and user states) and non-state actors (non-governmental organizations and international shipping industries). 相似文献