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1.
Coastal areas are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise. These impacts will exacerbate the risks posed by the continuing environmental degradation confronting the coastal communities.Adopting a participatory research approach, the study examines the vulnerability of socioeconomic groups among the coastal population in Cavite City, Philippines, their current adaptation strategies and their adaptive capacity to cope with the impacts of climate variability and extremes and sea-level rise. Under a future scenario of a 1-m accelerated sea-level rise (ASLR), the study also looks into its potential effects on these urban coastal communities and ecosystems.In the context of poverty reduction and sustainable development, this study suggests a local framework for integrating adaptation strategies and actions into integrated coastal management (ICM) planning. It also recommends appropriate policy and institutional reform, capacity building and improved knowledge management towards increasing the resilience and adaptive capacity of these coastal communities to current and future climate risks.  相似文献   

2.
Coastal upwelling is a phenomenon of great importance both for the study of ocean dynamics and for the development of fish production in some coastal regions. Our study region, the Galician coast, lies at the northern end of the Canary–Iberian Peninsula upwelling system. Knowing the changes provoked by climate change on this upwelling system is particularly relevant for the future of this area taking into account the social and economic importance of fishing activities in this region. In this paper we study the trends in the intensity and frequency of upwelling in the Galician coast and the expected changes in this phenomenon for the next decades using three regional models implemented within the European project ENSEMBLES. As a main result, we observe that the models show a positive trend in both the intensity and frequency of upwelling phenomenon for the future, particularly significant in spring and summer which are the seasons favorable for upwelling. In autumn and winter there are no significant changes.  相似文献   

3.
The climate‐envelope approach to predicting climate‐induced species range shift is limited. There are many possible reasons for this, but one novel explanation is that species adapt to changes in temperature at the expense of adaptation to other stressors. Here we test this hypothesis using the limpet Patella depressa (Mollusca, Patellidae), over a large geographical area covering most of the Atlantic coast of the Iberian Peninsula, known to consist of a genetically inter‐connected population. We examine limpet shell morphology on four shores in each of three regions, from Northern Spain to Southern Portugal. Within each region, shell morphology (measured as maximum shell profile to length ratio) varied between shore types differing in their insolation, wave action, microhabitat availability and biological factors. However, this ratio, which is known to be an adaptive response to heat stress, was found to be consistently higher in more southern latitudes despite differences between shore types being found in all regions. This implies that localized adaptation to shore type (most likely through phenotypic plasticity) is compromised by factors that change over latitudinal or regional scales, or which could occur in response to climate change. Although such climate‐induced changes may initially be localized, compromised adaptation (through phenotypic or genetic plasticity) may result in altered community interactions and potentially large shifts in community structure.  相似文献   

4.
Harmful algal blooms (HABs), more specifically red tides, are among the most critical environmental factors affecting mussel cultivation in Galicia (NW Spain), and they often have been blamed for economic losses for producers. This statement is based on the correlation between days of closure of the production areas and unsold product. The present article shows that such a statement is not always correct, at least in the case of Galician mussel farming, because red tides only cause losses to producers under specific circumstances that arise from the impossibility of placing their product in the market. In addition, this article reveals the importance of finding organizational solutions within the framework of the production sector to counteract the impact of this type of phenomenon.  相似文献   

5.
In Bangladesh, prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) farming remains dependent on the capture of wild postlarvae as hatchery production is still inadequate. However, prawn postlarvae fishing has been accompanied by concerns over recent climate change. Different climatic variables including cyclone, salinity, sea level rise, water temperature, flood, rainfall, and drought have had adverse effects on coastal ecosystem, thus determining a decline in the availability of prawn postlarvae and thereby catch. The households of postlarvae fishers also face a variety of socioeconomic constraints due to climate change. Considering extreme vulnerability to the effects of climate change, an integrated approach needs to be introduced to cope with the challenges.  相似文献   

6.
A spatial value transfer analysis was performed to generate baseline estimates of the value of ecosystem services in the coastal zone of Catalonia, Spain. The study used the best available conceptual frameworks, data sources, and analytical techniques to generate non-market monetary value estimates that can be used to identify scarce ecosystem services among competing coastal uses. The approach focused on natural and seminatural, terrestrial and marine systems, which provide essential services that are not considered in current economic markets. Results show that in 2004 a substantial economic value of $3,195 million USD/yr was delivered to local citizens by surrounding ecosystems. In a spatially explicit manner, the approach illustrates the contribution made by natural environmental systems to the well being of communities in the coastal zone of Catalonia. It is hoped that this study will highlight the need to consider these coastal systems in future management strategies to ensure their proper maintenance and conservation.  相似文献   

7.
This paper outlines the benefits of using the framework for an ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM) for dealing with the inevitable yet unclear impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on coastal fisheries. With a focus on the Asia-Pacific region, it summarizes the projected biological and socio-economic effects of increased emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) for coastal fisheries and illustrates how all the important dimensions of climate change and ocean acidification can be integrated into the steps involved in the EAFM planning process. The activities required to harness the full potential of an EAFM as an adaptation to climate change and ocean acidification are also described, including: provision of the necessary expertise to inform all stakeholders about the risks to fish habitats, fish stocks and catches due to climate change; promotion of trans-disciplinary collaboration; facilitating the participation of all key stakeholders; monitoring the wider fisheries system for climate impacts; and enhancing resources and capacity to implement an EAFM. By channeling some of the resources available to the Asia-Pacific region to adapt to climate change into an EAFM, developing countries will not only build resilience to the ecological and fisheries effects of climate change, they will also help address the habitat degradation and overfishing presently reducing the productivity of coastal fisheries.  相似文献   

8.
There is increasing concern over the consequences of global warming for the food security and livelihoods of the world's 36 million fisherfolk and the nearly 1.5 billion consumers who rely on fish for more than 20% of their dietary animal protein. With mounting evidence of the impacts of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, the resulting impacts on fisheries livelihoods are likely to be significant, but remain a neglected area in climate adaptation policy. Drawing upon our research and the available literature, and using a livelihoods framework, this paper synthesizes the pathways through which climate variability and change impact fisherfolk livelihoods at the household and community level. We identify current and potential adaptation strategies and explore the wider implications for local livelihoods, fisheries management and climate policies. Responses to climate change can be anticipatory or reactive and should include: (1) management approaches and policies that build the livelihood asset base, reducing vulnerability to multiple stressors, including climate change; (2) an understanding of current response mechanisms to climate variability and other shocks in order to inform planned adaptation; (3) a recognition of the opportunities that climate change could bring to the sector; (4) adaptive strategies designed with a multi-sector perspective; and (5) a recognition of fisheries potential contribution to mitigation efforts.  相似文献   

9.
Coastal-marine systems in small island developing states of the Caribbean are highly vulnerable to both current and future climate change. Societies navigate these changes in part through processes of governance and the institutions through which governance takes place. The concept of institutional adaptive capacity is used to explore how governance processes and institutional arrangements can be adapted to match the scale and extent of climate change in a case study of the Soufriere Marine Management Area, St. Lucia. Institutional adaptive capacity is analyzed based on the following factors: institutional variety, analytical deliberation and nesting and networks. The analysis is based on 36 semi-structured interviews conducted with key informants from NGOs, cooperatives, management authorities and government agencies. The findings suggest that governance to address climate change in the case study is contingent upon developing holistic, integrated management systems, improving flexibility in existing collaborative decision making processes, augmenting the capacity of local management authorities with support from higher-level government, exploring opportunities for private–social partnerships, and developing adequate social–environmental monitoring programs. These findings have potential implications and lessons for similar settings throughout the Caribbean.  相似文献   

10.
Perhaps more than in any other ocean, our understanding of the continental shelves of the Arctic Mediterranean is decidedly disciplinary, regional and fractured, and this shortcoming must be addressed if we are to face and prepare for climate change. A fundamental flaw is that while excellent process studies exist, and while recent ship-based expeditions have added greatly to our collective body of knowledge, an integrated and fully pan-Arctic perspective on the structure and function of food webs on Arctic shelves is lacking. Based on the collective overviews given in Progress in Oceanography xx, xx–xx, we attempt to address this issue. To build a perspective that inter-connects the various shelf regions we suggest three unifying typologies affecting food webs that will hopefully allow inter-comparison of regional investigations. The first is for shelf geography, wherein shelves are classified according to their role in the Arctic throughflow. The second is for ice climate, wherein the various ice regimes are examined for their specific impacts on food web dynamics. The third is for stratification where it is argued that the source of buoyancy, thermal or haline, impacts production and the vertical carbon flux. We then address the connection between physical habitat and biota on pan-Arctic (and global climate) scales. This discussion begins with the recognition that the Arctic Ocean is integral to the World Ocean via its thermohaline (“estuarine”) exchanges with the Atlantic and Pacific. As such the Arctic and its shelves act as a double estuary, wherein incoming waters become both lighter (positive estuary), by mixing with freshwater sources, and heavier (negative estuary) by cooling and brine release. Shelves are central to such transformations. This complex interconnectivity coupling of the Arctic Ocean to its sub-Arctic (and more productive) neighbors demands that food webs be considered through a macroecological view that includes an ecology of advection. We argue that the macroecological view is required if we are to understand and model food webs under forcing along climate gradients. To aid this effort we introduce the concept of contiguous domains, wherein physical habitats are joined by common features that will allow inter-comparisons of existing and future food webs over large scales and climatic gradients. Finally, we speculate on the range of possible futures for Arctic shelves based on the palaeo-record.  相似文献   

11.
Remote sensing has become an increasingly used technique for the thematic mapping of large marine areas. In recent years, many researchers have successfully applied these techniques in different places for benthic mapping in clear waters; however, areas with turbid waters present important limitations that are gradually being solved by recent technological advances. In this context, the main objective of the present study is to develop and validate a methodology for mapping intertidal and subtidal kelp forests in the Galician coast (NW Spain), based on images from SPOT-4 (Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre). Three analysis methods have been applied: visual analysis and interpretation, unsupervised classification (cluster) and supervised classification (angular classification and maximum likelihood classification). Classification percentages higher than 70% in all substrates were obtained both using visual analysis and interpretation and maximum likelihood classification.  相似文献   

12.
The speculation that climate change may impact on sustainable fish production suggests a need to understand how these effects influence fish catch on a broad scale. With a gross annual value of A$ 2.2 billion, the fishing industry is a significant primary industry in Australia. Many commercially important fish species use estuarine habitats such as mangroves, tidal flats and seagrass beds as nurseries or breeding grounds and have lifecycles correlated to rainfall and temperature patterns. Correlation of catches of mullet (e.g. Mugil cephalus) and barramundi (Lates calcarifer) with rainfall suggests that fisheries may be sensitive to effects of climate change. This work reviews key commercial fish and crustacean species and their link to estuaries and climate parameters. A conceptual model demonstrates ecological and biophysical links of estuarine habitats that influences capture fisheries production. The difficulty involved in explaining the effect of climate change on fisheries arising from the lack of ecological knowledge may be overcome by relating climate parameters with long-term fish catch data. Catch per unit effort (CPUE), rainfall, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and catch time series for specific combinations of climate seasons and regions have been explored and surplus production models applied to Queensland's commercial fish catch data with the program CLIMPROD. Results indicate that up to 30% of Queensland's total fish catch and up to 80% of the barramundi catch variation for specific regions can be explained by rainfall often with a lagged response to rainfall events. Our approach allows an evaluation of the economic consequences of climate parameters on estuarine fisheries, thus highlighting the need to develop forecast models and manage estuaries for future climate change impact by adjusting the quota for climate change sensitive species. Different modelling approaches are discussed with respect to their forecast ability.  相似文献   

13.
Benefits humans rely on from the ocean – marine ecosystem services – are increasingly vulnerable under future climate. This paper reviews how three valued services have, and will continue to, shift under climate change: (1) capture fisheries, (2) food from aquaculture, and (3) protection from coastal hazards such as storms and sea-level rise. Climate adaptation planning is just beginning for fisheries, aquaculture production, and risk mitigation for coastal erosion and inundation. A few examples are highlighted, showing the promise of considering multiple ecosystem services in developing approaches to adapt to sea-level rise, ocean acidification, and rising sea temperatures.Ecosystem-based adaptation in fisheries and along coastlines and changes in aquaculture practices can improve resilience of species and habitats to future environmental challenges. Opportunities to use market incentives – such as compensation for services or nutrient trading schemes – are relatively untested in marine systems. Relocation of communities in response to rising sea levels illustrates the urgent need to manage human activities and investments in ecosystems to provide a sustainable flow of benefits in the face of future climate change.  相似文献   

14.
As climate change continues to impact socio-ecological systems, tools that assist conservation managers to understand vulnerability and target adaptations are essential. Quantitative assessments of vulnerability are rare because available frameworks are complex and lack guidance for dealing with data limitations and integrating across scales and disciplines. This paper describes a semi-quantitative method for assessing vulnerability to climate change that integrates socio-ecological factors to address management objectives and support decision-making. The method applies a framework first adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and uses a structured 10-step process. The scores for each framework element are normalized and multiplied to produce a vulnerability score and then the assessed components are ranked from high to low vulnerability. Sensitivity analyses determine which indicators most influence the analysis and the resultant decision-making process so data quality for these indicators can be reviewed to increase robustness. Prioritisation of components for conservation considers other economic, social and cultural values with vulnerability rankings to target actions that reduce vulnerability to climate change by decreasing exposure or sensitivity and/or increasing adaptive capacity. This framework provides practical decision-support and has been applied to marine ecosystems and fisheries, with two case applications provided as examples: (1) food security in Pacific Island nations under climate-driven fish declines, and (2) fisheries in the Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Australia. The step-wise process outlined here is broadly applicable and can be undertaken with minimal resources using existing data, thereby having great potential to inform adaptive natural resource management in diverse locations.  相似文献   

15.
Fisheries resources play a major role in the national economy and to food security in Solomon Islands. Climate change is likely to have a substantial impact on fish production that can lead to a fragile food security condition in the country. This paper assesses the potential economic impact of three important climate change adaptation strategies – natural resource management (NRM), fish aggregating devices (FAD) and aquaculture – in Solomon Islands. The study used a country-specific partial equilibrium economic model with six fish sub-sectors and analyzed potential impact of alternate climate change adaptation strategies for 2035 and 2050. The modeling and scenario analyses show that total fish demand is likely to surpass domestic fish production in 2050. Without appropriate climate adaptation strategy, per capita consumption of domestically produced fish will decline, which has serious negative food security implications for the country. The economic (welfare) analysis conducted based on modeling results show that the national level net economic gains due to climate change adaptation strategies are substantial. If cost and topographic conditions permit, low-cost inshore FADs are expected to be a good mechanism for augmenting domestic supplies of tuna and similar species in Solomon Islands.  相似文献   

16.
Coastal erosion and storms represent a source of risk for settlements and infrastructure along the coast. At the same time, coastal natural assets, including landscape, are threatened by increasing development mainly driven by tourism. The Mediterranean coast is especially vulnerable to these processes, considering its high biological and cultural diversity. An additional challenge is represented by climate change, as it will force coastal communities to apply more or less drastic adaptation strategies. Coastal setbacks, used to protect coastal communities and infrastructure from storms and erosion, and to preserve coastal habitats and landscapes from degradation, is one of the main instruments suggested by the Protocol on Integrated Coastal Zone Management of the Barcelona Convention, entered into force on the 24 of March 2011. Its implementation has the potential to influence coastal policies in other regions, such as the neighbouring Black Sea.The CONSCIENCE project has formalized concepts and conducted specific studies to provide new tools for coastal erosion management practice. The objective of this paper is to present a synthesis of the research conducted into coastal setbacks for coastal erosion management and climate change adaptation. This is done by analysing the requirement of the Protocol, current processes and management practices in two case study areas (Costa Brava Bays in Spain and Danube Delta, in Romania) and the new challenges posed by climate change.  相似文献   

17.
Because of its vast volume and heat capacity, the ocean contains most of the memory of the earth's ocean - atmosphere coupled system. It has been suggested that the ocean may delay global warming by absorbing large amounts of heat, that it may cause ab- rupt climate change due to its disrupted thermohaline circulation, and that it may set the time-scales for various climate oscilla- tions. Although the slow pace and persistence of oceanic variations give hope to long-range prediction, there still exist large uncer- tainties in climate predictability. Presently available observations and models are generally inadequate for studying and predicting long-term climate changes. However, some short-term fluctuations such as ENSO have been well studied and shown to be highly predictable even with simplified models.  相似文献   

18.
Positioning fisheries in a changing world   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Marine capture fisheries face major and complex challenges: habitat degradation, poor economic returns, social hardships from depleted stocks, illegal fishing, and climate change, among others. The key factors that prevent the transition to sustainable fisheries are information failures, transition costs, use and non-use conflicts and capacity constraints. Using the experiences of fisheries successes and failures it is argued only through better governance and institutional change that encompasses the public good of the oceans (biodiversity, ecosystem integrity, sustainability) and societal values (existence, aesthetic and amenity) will fisheries be made sustainable.  相似文献   

19.
The extreme values of wave climate data are of great interest in a number of different ocean engineering applications, including the design and operation of ships and offshore structures, marine energy generation, aquaculture and coastal installations. Typically, the return values of certain met-ocean parameters such as significant wave height are of particular importance. There exist many methods for estimating such return values, including the initial distribution approach, the block maxima approach and the peaks-over threshold approach. In a climate change perspective, projections of such return values to a future climate are of great importance for risk management and adaptation purposes. However, many approaches to extreme value modelling assume stationary conditions and it is not straightforward how to include non-stationarity of the extremes due to for example climate change. In this paper, various non-stationary GEV-models for significant wave height are developed that account for trends and shifts in the extreme wave climate due to climate change. These models are fitted to block maxima in a particular set of wave data obtained for a historical control period and two future projections for a future period corresponding to different emission scenarios. These models are used to investigate whether there are trends in the data within each period that influence the extreme value analysis and need to be taken into account. Moreover, it will be investigated whether there are significant inter-period shifts or trends in the extreme wave climate from the historical period to the future periods. The results from this study suggest that the intra-period trends are not statistically significant and that it might be reasonable to ignore these in extreme value analyses within each period. However, when it comes to comparing the different data sets, i.e. the historical period and the future projections, statistical significant inter-period changes are detected. Hence, the accumulated effect of a climatic trend may not be negligible over longer time periods. Interestingly enough, such statistically significant shifts are not detected if stationary extreme value models are fitted to each period separately. Therefore, the non-stationary extreme value models with inter-period shifts in the parameters are proposed as an alternative for extreme value modelling in a climate change perspective, in situations where historical data and future projections are available.  相似文献   

20.
南极海冰是全球气候系统的重要组成部分。不同于北极海冰的快速减少,近40年来,南极海冰范围在2014年前是缓慢增加、后是突变减少。单一的大尺度大气环流因素无法解释南极海冰的长期变化趋势,海洋?大气相互作用对海冰的耦合影响还未得到充分研究。受南极海冰厚度遥感观测和数值模拟能力所限,现有数据仍无法准确量化全球变化背景下南极海冰的厚度和体积变化;目前南极海冰变化的气候效应还未充分明确。当前国内外对南极海冰研究的不足迫切要求发展长期可靠的南极海冰厚度数据,以突破南极海冰体积变化研究的难题,同时应综合考虑多气候模态和海气系统耦合的作用,研究南极海冰变化的机制及其气候效应。  相似文献   

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