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1.
Actor networking, technological planning and conceptions of space: The dynamics of irrigation farming in the coastal savanna of Ghana 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The sustainability of introduced technology in rural contexts is based on the socioenvironmental networking of local stakeholders, a point generally ignored in Ghana. A case study is given of an irrigation project from the coastal savanna of Ghana, a region appraised by contested assessments of drought and social conflict. Using a methodology based on a strand of actor network theory (ANT), including social surveys, meteorological and field data, it is concluded that such analyses of spatial linkages, serve as an effective methodology for assessing technological developments and socio-cultural contexts of various scales, and has applied relevance for environmental and development planning. 相似文献
2.
提高西北旱作农业干旱监测准确性和时效性,对农业生产防灾减灾有重要意义。利用甘肃省3个农业气象观测站长期土壤水分和冬小麦生育状况观测资料、1971—2016年43个冬小麦种植县气象观测资料及产量资料,基于冬小麦播前底墒和生育期水分盈亏量修订了作物水分盈亏指数,并确定了干旱等级指标,改进后作物水分盈亏指数与土壤贮水和冬小麦减产率高度相关,能更准确的反映甘肃省冬小麦干旱实况,并利用ArcGIS分析了近46 a甘肃省冬小麦不同生育期、不同等级干旱发生频率的时空分布特征。结果表明：甘肃省冬小麦从播种至开花期随着发育期推移,呈现干旱频率增加、范围扩大的趋势,多以中旱居多,其中拔节—开花期发生面积最大,陇中、庆阳市北部、平凉市西部、天水市西部、陇南市南部干旱出现频率较高;开花—成熟期随着降水量增加干旱发生频率减少、程度减轻。 相似文献
3.
Bimal Kanti Paul 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》1998,18(4):355-373
Droughts are recurrent features in Bangladesh, affecting plant growth and leading to loss of crop production, food shortages and, for many people, starvation. The main objective of this study is to examine the means by which residents of a drought-affected area of Bangladesh cope with this hazard. Data were collected during the summer of 1995 from 301 drought-affected households located in northwestern Bangladesh. Analysis suggests that respondent households practised an array of adjustments to mitigate adverse effects of the 1994/5 drought. While both high- and low-income households were affected by the drought, households belonging to the lower socioeconomic group suffered the most, receiving the least support from the national government. Government responses were delayed and inadequate in providing financial and other assistance to the drought victims. It is suggested that the government should be prepared for drought long before the occurrence of such an event. 相似文献
4.
基于生态系统服务理论界定生态福祉概念及其表征、评价方法,借鉴资源诅咒理论,提出广义生态福祉视域下的生态祝福及生态诅咒假说,结合有关年度统计数据、以中国大陆地区为例展开实证分析。结果表明：① 从人均生态福祉来看,全国范围内的绝对生态诅咒假设不成立,东、西部地区生态祝福效应显著;② 从农林牧渔产业从业人员比例来看,全国及地区层面的条件生态诅咒假设均不成立,东部地区生态祝福效应显著;③ 从农林牧渔产业产值比例来看,全国及地区层面的条件生态诅咒假设均显著成立。自然生态系统为提高区域人均生态福祉、吸纳富余劳动力就业等贡献显著,但促进地区经济社会发展还需不断降低农林牧渔产业产值在国民经济中的比例。未来,中国应当进一步实施因地制宜的生态保护措施以规避生态诅咒,并通过因时制宜的经济社会发展规划促进生态祝福效应。 相似文献
5.
Africa's Albertine Rift region faces a juxtaposition of rapid human population growth and protected areas, making it one of the world's most vulnerable biodiversity hotspots. Using satellite-derived estimates of forest cover change, we examined national socioeconomic, demographic, agricultural production, and local demographic and geographic variables, to assess multilevel forces driving local forest cover loss and gain outside protected areas during the first decade of this century. Because the processes that drive forest cover loss and gain are expected to be different, and both are of interest, we constructed models of significant change in each direction. Although rates of forest cover change varied by country, national population change was the strongest driver of forest loss for all countries – with a population doubling predicted to cause 2.06% annual cover loss, while doubling tea production predicted to cause 1.90%. The rate of forest cover gain was associated positively with increased production of the local staple crop cassava, but negatively with local population density and meat production, suggesting production drivers at multiple levels affect reforestation. We found a small but significant decrease in loss rate as distance from protected areas increased, supporting studies suggesting higher rates of landscape change near protected areas. While local population density mitigated the rate of forest cover gain, loss was also correlated with lower local population density, an apparent paradox, but consistent with findings that larger scale forces outweigh local drivers of deforestation. This implicates demographic and market forces at national and international scales as critical drivers of change, calling into question the necessary scales of forest protection policy in this biodiversity hotspot. Using a satellite derived estimate of forest cover change for both loss and gain added a dynamic component to more traditionally static and unidirectional studies, significantly improving our understanding of landscape processes and drivers at work. 相似文献
6.
Animal husbandry and crop farming are specialized for development in separate areas on the Tibetan Plateau. Such a pattern of isolation has led to current concerns of rangeland and farming system degradation due to intensive land use. The crop-livestock integration, however, has been proven to increase food and feed productivity thorough niche complementarity, and is thereby especially effective for promoting ecosystem resilience. Regional synergy has emerged as an integrated approach to reconcile rangeland livestock with forage crop production. It moves beyond the specialized sectors of animal husbandry and intensive agriculture to coordinate them through regional coupling. Therefore, crop-livestock integration (CLI) has been suggested as one of the effective solutions to forage deficit and livestock production in grazing systems. But it is imperative that CLI moves forward from the farm level to the regional scale, in order to secure regional synergism during agro-pastoral development. The national key R & D program, Technology and Demonstration of Recovery and Restoration of Degraded Alpine Ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau, aims to solve the problems of alpine grassland degradation by building up a grass-based animal husbandry technology system that includes synergizing forage production and ecological functioning, reconciling the relationship between ecology, forage production and animal husbandry, and achieving the win-win goals of curbing grassland degradation and changing the development mode of animal husbandry. It is imperative to call for regional synergy through integrating ecological functioning with ecosystem services, given the alarming threat of rangeland degradation on the Tibetan Plateau. The series of papers in this issue, together with those published previously, provide a collection of rangeland ecology and management studies in an effort to ensure the sustainable use and management of the alpine ecosystems. 相似文献
7.
选取新疆维吾尔自治区14个地（州）为研究对象,从农业气候干旱的敏感性和恢复力2个角度选取10个指标,对该区2001-2010年的农业气候干旱脆弱性进行评价。通过计算新疆各地（州）农业气候干旱脆弱度并绘制新疆农业气候干旱脆弱性区划图,分析该区农业气候干旱脆弱性的年际变化和地域分布特点及规律,初步探讨了其成因,提出缓解新疆农业气候干旱脆弱性的科学对策。结果表明：新疆各地区农业气候干旱脆弱度在时间尺度存在差异性变化,并存在显著地域性差异,总体呈现出 “东高西低,南高北低”的分布状况,主要原因不仅有地形、水文和气候等自然环境因素的差异,还包括经济产业结构、科学技术研究、灌溉设施、全民意识和政策管理等社会经济因素,可以通过采用先进技术和高效管理措施、根据气候采取种植结构格局和方式、合理开采高效利用水资源、增强全民生态保护意识等措施,缓解干旱影响、降低区域干旱脆弱性。 相似文献
8.
Current, spatially explicit, and high-resolution assessments of population vulnerability to climate change and variability in developing countries can be difficult to create due to lack of data or financial and technical capacity constraints. We propose a comparative, multiple-approach framework to assess the spatial variation of population vulnerability to climatic changes using several high-resolution variables related to climate, topography, and socioeconomic conditions with an objective to detect the spatial variability of climate vulnerability in Nepal. Nepal is one of the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change due to frequent climatic hazards and poor socio-economic capacity. We used a climate vulnerability index (CVI) approach to derive climate vulnerability maps at the one-kilometer resolution and test an additive and a principal components-based composite method of data aggregation. In this work, we attempt to answer three questions. 1) How do different methods of assessment inform the spatial variation of the climate vulnerability in Nepal? 2) How do different variables interact to shape climate vulnerability in Nepal? 3) What proportions of the population in Nepal are vulnerable to climatic disasters and why? Our analysis uncovered significant spatial variations in population vulnerability to climate change across Nepal, with the highest vulnerability being experienced by the High Mountain region followed by the regions in the lower elevations. We find that although the lack of adaptive capacity is the biggest cause of population vulnerability to climate change in Nepal, a resilient community is shaped by both biophysical and socioeconomic characteristics. By performing an iterative sensitivity analysis of our thirteen variables both at the aggregate level (nationally) as well as at the more disaggregated (physiographic region) level, we contribute to identifying important, multi-scalar driving factors for vulnerability that can be employed as leverage points for lowering vulnerability at different scales. After performing analyses at multiple regions, we conclude that region-specific variable selection is needed for more detailed assessments and in order to prioritize adaptation strategies at scales that go beyond the hierarchy of administrative divisions. 相似文献
9.
气候变暖背景下黄河流域干旱灾害风险空间特征 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
黄河流域是中国重要的经济带和经济增长极,也是人口密集暴露、特色农业种植和重点生态承载区。在全球变暖和极端降水事件频发的气候背景下,近年来黄河流域干旱灾害变化特征异常突出,新形势下该流域的干旱灾害风险及其对气候变化的响应机制需进一步深入认识。本文利用1960年以来黄河流域122个国家气象站逐日气象数据,结合遥感、社会统计和地理信息数据与技术,基于灾害风险理论,建立致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力可靠性4个因子的干旱灾害风险指标体系和模型,详细分析了黄河流域干旱灾害风险变化特征和区域差异性及其气候变化的影响机制。结果表明：黄河流域干旱灾害风险分布格局具有明显的地带性和复杂性,流域区域差异显著,总体是中下游风险高于上游,高风险区主要位于黄河流域中下游,致灾因子危险性是黄河流域干旱灾害风险的主导因子,其次是孕灾环境脆弱性和防灾减灾能力可靠性,而承灾体易损性贡献量相对最小。干旱灾害风险影响机制的区域差异也很显著,上游是孕灾环境脆弱性和防灾减灾能力可靠性的影响大于致灾因子和易损性,中游则是致灾因子、易损性和防灾减灾能力对干旱灾害风险的贡献度大,下游是干旱致灾因子起主导作用,致灾因子危险性和承灾体易损性控制了风险总体格局。黄河流域干旱灾害风险变化规律以及对气候变化的响应异常复杂,流域干旱灾害风险主要受季风气候和复杂地形的影响,还受社会经济发展水平、人口暴露度和水资源供需矛盾等多种要素的影响。该研究对黄河流域生态文明建设,粮食安全保障和国家发展战略具有重要意义。 相似文献
10.
农户尺度的黄土高原乡村干旱脆弱性及适应机理 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
干旱脆弱性及人类对干旱的适应机理分析是干旱及半干旱地区人地关系研究的重要内容,也是西北地区乡村人地系统可持续性研究的新视角。本文运用Turner脆弱性分析框架,将其改进应用到黄土高原乡村农户的干旱脆弱性及其适应领域,选取榆中县和长武县气象数据和农户调查数据,应用主成分分析、综合指数法、差异性分析和鲁棒性分析等方法分别对指标权重、农户干旱脆弱性指数及其差异性与脆弱性指数的不确定性进行分析与检验,并从适应能力、适应策略和适应模式三个层面揭示适应机理。主要结论为：①中连川乡农户干旱脆弱性指数大于洪家镇,且不同村落间农户干旱脆弱性指数差异显著;②农户干旱适应机理为暴露—敏感性影响农户收入,农户生计系统是适应干旱暴露扰动的决定因子,农户类型、生计方式、土地利用、灌溉设施和政策扶持的差异性产生不同的适应模式和适应效果;③农户干旱脆弱性指数排名出现频率较高且排名变化范围较小,具有较强的鲁棒性,表明农户干旱脆弱性计算结果具有稳健性。 相似文献
11.
1IntroductionSincetheearlierperiodofthiscentUry,peoplebegantocalculatethecropwaterrequirementSaccordingtotheevaporahonratefromanopenwatersurface,alotofeXPerimentSandresearchesoncropwaterrequirementSandtheirpatternshavebeencAnedoutinmanybranchsciences.Butsofar,theconceptofcropwaterrequirementSstillremainsdiverseandisoftenconfusedwithcropwaterconsumphon.fieldevaporaho4croptTanSpiratioll,andfieldevapoboSPiratioftetc..althoughtheseconceptShavesomesindarihes,theyarenotthesameinfactCropwaterreq… 相似文献
12.
红壤丘陵区土地可持续利用中的干旱约束与调控研究 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3
本文选择红壤丘陵区江西余江县作为研究样点 ,运用Zi指数等定量方法衡量区域干旱问题 ,辨识区域存在的干旱及其类别等级 ;运用“制约强度指数”衡量干旱对土地农业利用的约束程度。研究表明 ,红壤丘陵区一定频度的干旱 ,制约着土地利用的过程、形式与效果及其时空变异性 ,其制约强度与土地利用的方式及其结构、作物种类等密切相关。旱地的盲目扩展等不适当人为活动 ,在水利效用受局限之后对干旱成灾的影响作用日渐突出。科学的调控不仅需要完善水利工程网络建设 ,对水源利用采取蓄、引、节、保措施 ,也需要改进土地利用模式与技术 ,重视修订总体规划并进行土地利用的结构性调整。 相似文献
13.
太湖流域的水环境质量呈现严重恶化趋势,农业污染物的排放是太湖流域水体环境恶化的主要原因之一。农业污染物主要来源于种植业、畜禽养殖业和水产养殖业的生产过程,不同于以往分开论述三者对水环境的影响,本文基于全国第一次污染普查数据,运用污染足迹模型定量分析了湖州市农业面源(种植业、畜禽养殖业和水产养殖业)对水环境的影响。研究结果表明:(1)农业生产产生的污染物对水环境的影响排序为:磷>氮>有机物;(2)各农业生产类型对水环境的影响排序为:水产养殖业>种植业>畜禽养殖业;(3)湖州市各区县对水环境的影响也存在着明显的空间差异。通过对湖州市农业污染足迹评估,可以明确地提出哪种污染物类型、农业生产类型和区域是湖州市农业面源污染治理的重点。研究结果可以为太湖流域农业的可持续发展和水资源的可持续利用提供一定的参考价值。 相似文献
14.
Hassan M. El Shaer 《寒旱区科学》2015,7(1):0007-0015
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is characterized by high population growth, degraded and fragile nat-ural ecosystems, and a limited amount of arable lands. It is one of the most water-sc... 相似文献
15.
高温热浪作为一种常见的气象灾害,对人们的生产、生活、健康产生很大的影响。为探索福建省沿海与内陆城市高温热浪脆弱差异性及其形成机制,本文构建了包含暴露性、敏感性、适应性3个维度的高温热浪脆弱性评估模型(Vulnerability Scoping Diagram, VSD)。利用1994-2013年逐日极端高温数据和经济社会统计数据,分别对处于沿海和内陆的福州和南平市辖区进行高温热浪脆弱性及其3个维度(暴露性、敏感性、适应性)的评估与比较,并试图解释分析福州市辖区与南平市辖区高温热浪脆弱性的差异及其原因。结果显示：由于地理环境与社会经济系统的显著差异,近20年来,沿海地区高温热浪的脆弱性低于内陆地区,但随着经济发展导致的敏感性增加,前者不断攀升的脆弱性可能会超越后者;内陆地区的人类活动对环境的干扰程度相对较弱,其敏感性不断降低而适应性有所上升,使得其高温热浪的脆弱性不断降低。降低高温热浪脆弱性的关键在于同时增强区域适应性与降低敏感性,这对制定适应性措施具有积极的现实意义。 相似文献
16.
Marine protected areas (MPAs) hold great promise as an effective conservation tool, but the potential negative socioeconomic impacts of MPAs remain poorly understood. Indeed, little work has been done to advance the frameworks and methods needed to assess, measure, and communicate the potential negative socioeconomic impact of MPAs and incorporate this information in MPA planning and management efforts. To address this gap, we test a vulnerability assessment termed the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) that is designed to measure the relative potential impact a proposed MPA network may have upon fisherman livelihoods. To test the LVI, specifically we ask, how does the vulnerability of fishermen to the impact of MPAs differ across place? We explore this question through two core areas of inquiry surrounding the study of vulnerability assessments: 1) Ranking and comparing vulnerability and 2) Explaining attributes of vulnerability. Through this study we demonstrate how the historical and current conditions fishermen experience in a given place shape vulnerability levels in various ways. Variability in the attributes of a particular place such as weather conditions, the size of fishing areas, availability of alternative fisheries, and changes in kelp cover contribute inherently as measures of vulnerability but they also shape fishermen perceptions of what are important measures of vulnerability. Secondly, counter to existing notions, the use of weights in vulnerability assessments may not significantly impact vulnerability scores and ranking. Together these findings emphasize the need to test vulnerability assessments against actual experienced impact or harm across geographies and groups of fishermen towards an informed refinement of vulnerability assessments. We emphasize that the particularities of place are critical to understand, to appropriately assess and thus to effectively mitigate vulnerability in order to promote the future well being of fisherman livelihoods. 相似文献
17.
以世界文化遗产的云南红河哈尼梯田为例,基于元阳县自然资源局的土地利用的空间矢量数据,利用地理信息系统技术提取2013-2018年元阳县与梯田核心景区的土地利用类型信息,分析梯田耕作时空演变的总体特征和变化趋势,选取级差地租理论解释梯田耕作的演化逻辑,并通过实地调研说明政府的外力干预效果。结果表明：1）梯田核心区的耕地比例大于整个元阳县的耕地比例,且不同于元阳县内旱地面积大于水田面积,核心区内的水田面积为旱地面积的一倍,表明核心区的水田比非核心区保护得更好;2）在没有外力干预的自然情况下非核心区与核心区水田分别呈现改旱和撂荒趋势,民族内部的文化力量难以可持续抗衡这种变迁。而政府作为市场失灵的调控机关,在遗产保护任务和政治利益激励的诉求下,干预了核心区的梯田演变过程,通过提高级差地租Ⅱ实现核心区的土地增值,集中加大对核心区的资源要素投入,从而有效延缓了梯田遗产消失或变更的进程;而非核心区由于缺乏政府有力的干预,梯田正呈现逐渐消失的趋势。 相似文献
18.
Most food insecure countries do not have long-term records of either agricultural drought or the impacts of agricultural drought on food security. This lack of data impedes famine early warning and crop insurance programs. One recent paper addresses this issue by using resampled rainfall data, a basic crop yield model, and linear regression to simulate distributions of grain yield. We expand on this process by incorporating flexible regression models and defining a set of criteria to test model performance. We also examine how well a model fit on national data can emulate yield distributions at regions within a country. We find that models with spatially varying coefficients are better able to simulate distributions than basic linear regression models. Generalized additive models also perform well but do not offer substantial improvement over varying coefficient models. We also find that simulated yield distributions are most accurate in higher producing regions that have lower within region diversity of yields. 相似文献
19.
干旱作为频发的全球性自然灾害之一,造成了严重的社会、经济和生态环境问题。以西藏主要耕作区为研究区,2001—2015年MODIS、TRMM和SRTM DEM数据为数据源,利用植被状态指数（VCI）、温度条件指数（TCI）和降水状态指数（PCI）〖WTBZ〗等模型参量,采用空间主成分分析方法构建区域干旱综合监测模型,对模型精度和可靠性进行检核验证,并以所建模型对研究区2001—2015年逐月干旱进行识别,采用地理时空分析方法对研究区干旱变化特征及趋势进行研究。结果表明,干旱综合监测指数（DCMI）能够较好地反映区域土壤相对湿度与标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）的变化,干旱综合监测模型具有较好的适用性;研究区全年干旱频率在空间分布上呈现出西高东低的特征,大部分地区干旱频率小于20%,约12.41%的区域干旱频率超过20%;从不同等级干旱发生频率来看,日喀则市为轻旱、中旱易发区,重旱易发区则集中于日喀则市和昌都市的中部及东部地区;区域月际干旱频率空间格局差异较大,全年干旱易发生于1、8、11月等月份,局部地区干旱易发月份存在差异;区域年内旱情变化趋势差异性较大,10月~次年9月,旱情加剧区域呈现出随月份变化由耕作区东部向西部逐渐转移的趋势。 相似文献
20.
东北黑土区是中国重要的粮食生产基地,也是中国气候变化最敏感的地区之一。然而,气候变化背景下东北黑土区气候及物候变化对农业生产力的综合影响并不清晰,未来农业生产风险评估的定量化程度不够,风险等级制定缺乏依据。本文借助遥感产品、气候资料和模拟数据等资料,综合运用多元线性回归、相关分析及干旱危险性指数等方法,探究东北黑土区作物物候动态及其气候响应特征,辨识气候与物候变化对农业生产的复合效应及未来可能风险。结果表明：① 2000—2017年东北黑土区29.76%的区域作物生长季开始期呈显著延后趋势,16.71%的区域作物生长季结束期呈提前态势,生长季开始期受气温的影响范围广,且滞后时间长;生长季结束期与前期气候变化关系更加密切,且带状差异性响应格局尤其明显。② 气候变化和物候期改变对作物生产的解释能力较生长季同期气候变化的解释能力增加了70.23%,解释面积扩大了85.04%。③ RCP8.5情景下东北黑土区粮食总产量呈现上升趋势,粮食生产风险表现出“南增北减”的演变特征,风险区面积不断扩大,全球温升2.0 ℃时,松嫩黑土亚区南部粮食减产量可能达到10%。研究有助于深入认识气候—物候—作物生产的关联机理及未来粮食生产风险,对制定气候变化应对策略,保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。 相似文献