共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Xuwei Chen 《The Professional geographer》2013,65(2):160-173
This article investigates the effectiveness of simultaneous and staged evacuation strategies for hurricane evacuations of Galveston Island using agent-based microsimulation techniques. In the simultaneous strategy the entire population is informed to evacuate simultaneously, whereas in a staged evacuation strategy, people are informed to evacuate in a sequence. The results suggest that (1) the most efficient staged evacuation strategy can help reduce the evacuation time for Galveston Island by approximately one hour, (2) previous studies might have underestimated the evacuation time of Galveston, and (3) an evacuation under the rapid response assumption does not necessarily lead to an effective evacuation. 相似文献
2.
Jia Yu Chuanrong Zhang Jiahong Wen Weidong Li Rui Liu Hui Xu 《International journal of geographical information science》2018,32(9):1884-1910
The timely and secure evacuation of residents to nearby urban emergency shelters is of great importance during unexpected disaster events. However, evacuation and allocation of shelters are seldom examined as a whole, even though they are usually closely related tasks in disaster management. To conduct better spatial allocation of emergency shelters in cities, this study proposes a new method which integrates techniques of multi-agent system and multi-criteria evaluation for spatial allocation of urban emergency shelters. Compared with the traditional emergency shelter allocation methods, the proposed method highlights the importance of dynamic emergency evacuation simulations for spatial allocation suitability analysis. Three kinds of agents involved in evacuation and sheltering procedures are designed: government agents, shelter agents, and resident agents. Emergency evacuations are simulated based on the interactions of these agents to find potential problems, for example, time-consuming evacuation processes and road congestion. A case study in Jing’an District, Shanghai, China was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. After three rounds of simulation and optimization, new shelters were spatially allocated and a detailed recommended plan of shelters and related facilities was generated. The optimized spatial allocation of shelters may help local residents to be evacuated more quickly and securely. 相似文献
3.
In this paper, a spatiotemporal framework is developed for identifying building vulnerabilities and content evacuations during riverine flooding events. This work investigates the spatiotemporal properties required to trigger building contents evacuations in the floodplain during a flood event. The spatial properties for building risks are based on topography, flood inundation, building location, building elevation, and road access to determine five categories of vulnerability, vulnerable basement, flooded basement, vulnerable first-floor, flooded first-floor, and road access. Using this framework, a model designed to track the spatiotemporal patterns of building evacuations is presented. The model is based upon real-time flood forecast predictions that are linked with building properties to create a model that captures the spatiotemporal ordering of building vulnerabilities and building content evacuations. Applicable to different communities at risk from flooding, the evacuation model is applied to a historical flood for a university campus, demonstrating how the defined elements are used to derive a pattern of vulnerability and evacuation for a campus threatened by severe flooding. 相似文献
4.
Zhifen Chen Xiang Chen Jin Chen 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(8):1612-1630
The problem of emergency facility location is a critical component in evacuation planning. The emergence of geographic information systems (GIS) has provided a useful operational platform to assist this issue. A previously overlooked facet is the consideration of a hierarchical structure in the placement of emergency shelters. Due to the fact that survivors' needs change over time during post-disaster evacuations, shelters have now been categorized on a temporal scale based on their functions at different evacuation phases. This article proposes a three-level hierarchical location model for optimizing the placement of earthquake shelters by taking into account this temporal variance. The article not only scrutinizes the modeling procedure but also implements the model in a planning area with many real-world details. Based on the optimization results derived from a GIS context, we have found that the quality of the earthquake response procedure is not only dependent on the placement strategy of shelters, but more importantly on the financial constraints imposed on the planning and construction of these shelters. A discussion has been proposed to balance the trade-off between budget planning and evacuation efficiency. As the first attempt to model the hierarchical configuration of emergency shelters with specific focus on evacuees' escalating sheltering demands, this article will be of great significance in helping policy makers consider both the spatial and financial aspects of the strategic placement of emergency shelters. 相似文献
5.
Although anisotropic least-cost-distance (LCD) modeling is becoming a common tool for estimating pedestrian-evacuation travel times out of tsunami hazard zones, there has been insufficient attention paid to understanding model sensitivity behind the estimates. To support tsunami risk-reduction planning, we explore two aspects of LCD modeling as it applies to pedestrian evacuations and use the coastal community of Seward, Alaska, as our case study. First, we explore the sensitivity of modeling to the direction of movement by comparing standard safety-to-hazard evacuation times to hazard-to-safety evacuation times for a sample of 3985 points in Seward's tsunami-hazard zone. Safety-to-hazard evacuation times slightly overestimated hazard-to-safety evacuation times but the strong relationship to the hazard-to-safety evacuation times, slightly conservative bias, and shorter processing times of the safety-to-hazard approach make it the preferred approach. Second, we explore how variations in land cover speed conservation values (SCVs) influence model performance using a Monte Carlo approach with one thousand sets of land cover SCVs. The LCD model was relatively robust to changes in land cover SCVs with the magnitude of local model sensitivity greatest in areas with higher evacuation times or with wetland or shore land cover types, where model results may slightly underestimate travel times. This study demonstrates that emergency managers should be concerned not only with populations in locations with evacuation times greater than wave arrival times, but also with populations with evacuation times lower than but close to expected wave arrival times, particularly if they are required to cross wetlands or beaches. 相似文献
6.
7.
Yi Li Bisong Hu Dong Zhang Jianhua Gong Yiquan Song 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(11):2241-2258
ABSTRACTA flood evacuation represents a complex geographic phenomenon that includes comprehensive interactions among humans, the flood and urban environments; thus, the simulation of flood evacuations requires crowd simulation models to be coupled with flood models. This paper studies the human-environment relationship during flooding and promotes a simulation model that combines cellular automata and a multiagent system to simulate crowd evacuations in flood disasters. A case study of Niaodao Island was used to evaluate the performance of flood evacuation experiments, and real-participant experiments based on the virtual reality (VR) environment were employed for bench-mark comparisons. The integrated model can provide a comprehensive solution to assist flood risk analysis. 相似文献
8.
Xiaoyi Ma Ci Song Chenghu Zhou 《International journal of geographical information science》2016,30(12):2401-2420
In the high-speed urbanization process of China, the urban population has been increasing significantly, leading to a high-density aggregation of population. However, the sharp increase in population density has not produced commensurate improvements in the road networks. On the contrary, the population increase induced a serious evacuation vulnerability, which cities experience during various hazards and catastrophic events. Therefore, research on evacuation vulnerability is important to urban planning. To assess the evacuation vulnerability, the optimal and worst scenarios should be considered because all possible evacuation plans occur between these extremes. However, most previous evacuation vulnerability studies are based on the worst-case scenario, only providing an upper bound of a potential evacuation assessment. To provide a more comprehensive theoretical basis for decision-makers to understand the consequences caused by all possible evacuations, this paper proposes an optimal evacuation vulnerability assessment model that provides the lower bound on potential evacuation difficulties. The model is solved by a stepwise spreading algorithm based on Graph Theory. Subsequently, to evaluate the effectiveness of the model, the study adopts the model to assess the evacuation capability of different road network topologies. A comparison with previous research was performed. The model was demonstrated in an application to the South Luogu Alley of Beijing, China. The significance of this paper is that the combination of our model with previous research may provide a more complete theoretical basis for an evacuation vulnerability assessment. 相似文献
9.
Menghui Li Jin Li Xingliang Liu Han Ru Chao Sun 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(5):922-944
This research presents an operable zoning approach for phased evacuations adapted to disasters with spatio-temporal randomness. As a criterion for prioritizing evacuation order, evacuation risk is formulated by taking into consideration the estimated residual evacuation horizon associated with the characteristics of the disaster, the estimated time-dependent capacities of outbound lanes related to network supply, and the time-dependent evacuation demand of an evacuation unit. The modeling of the subzone determined for phased evacuation is based on rescue demand, the characteristics of the disaster, and network supply, and is labeled as a high-risk evacuation zone (HEZ). The range of HEZ features a time-evolving pattern in accordance with phased evacuation. The zone partition paradigm can be seamlessly applied to different types of disasters, especially those with high spatio-temporal randomness. It also provides a generalizable approach for subzone partitioning in phased evacuation by minimizing evacuation risk. The proposed approach is examined on numerical experiments through the road network of Xi’an, China, the results of which highlight its strength in increased adaptability to the dynamics of disaster impact and improved performance in evacuation operation. 相似文献
10.
基于活动主体的城市系统微观模拟可能在未来城市研究中发挥重要作用,但其通常受到微观个体数据稀缺的限制。空间微观模拟方法（spatial microsimulation）主要基于家庭、个人等微观分析单元,通过整合不同层面的数据源,如宏观汇总层面的人口普查统计表以及微观层面的家庭活动日志调查等,合成大样本微观个体数据集,可以在精细化空间尺度上对微观个体行为进行模拟研究。该方法在城市系统微观模拟、空间分析以及政策评估等方面具有一定优势,在西方国家城市研究中的应用逐渐增多,但在国内较为缺乏。本文尝试对空间微观模拟方法的起源、三种核心算法,包括条件概率（conditional probability） 、确定性加权（deterministic reweighting）以及模拟退火（simulated annealing）进行介绍,并从国际层面综述该方法在城市研究,如收入与贫困、交通出行、健康等领域中的应用,为我国相关研究的开展提供借鉴。 相似文献
11.
科学评估避难场所的服务效率是提高城市应急水平的前提。传统对避难场所服务效率的评估多偏重于避难场所空间布局的合理性,缺少对避难者的空间布局和避难行为等避难需求的考虑,这会使评估结果造成偏差,从而容易引起资源配置的低效率。本文构建了多主体模拟模型,模拟避难者灾后对避难场所的选择、奔跑、安置等关键疏散行为过程,量化评估该地区避难场所服务效率。本文对比了两种量化评估指标在同一案例评估的差异性,一种是传统方法中空间可达性(服务半径覆盖率),一种是利用疏散行为模拟计算出的避难成功率;北京市海淀区的实证研究显示两项指标在同一案例区有巨大差异。这一分析结果显示,传统评估仅利用服务半径覆盖率这一指标来分析避难场所布局现状及规划的合理性存在不足。通过避难疏散行为的模拟发现,以下指标的使用有望辅助提高评估的真实性：①避难场所的利用效率。由于设施的利用效率不均衡,会导致避难场所超容或闲置的情况。在充分考虑避难场所的有效服务面积和服务人口的基础上,设计“人均避难面积”等反应利用效率的指标就显得十分必要。②避难标识系统的连通性。避难模拟的实验显示避难标识系统可能对避难者逃生疏散具有分流和引导作用,据此,避难场所与周边居民区的标识系统的连通性也是评价其服务效率的关键指标。 相似文献
12.
A telephone survey of 2,595 households on Long Island, NY provides a data base for analyzing potential spatial behaviors in response to an accident at the Shoreham Nuclear Power Station in Suffolk County. These intended behaviors approximated the actual behaviors of Three Mile Island area residents during the general emergency at that plant in 1979. Using evacuations from natural and other technological hazards as a basis for comparison, we conclude that evacuations in response to nuclear power plant accidents are likely to be characterized by an extreme over-response to limited protective action advisories; this phenomenon needs to be considered in behaviorally-based radiological emergency response planning. 相似文献
13.
新国家空间框架解读中国空间转型现象的再审视 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
作为全球化背景下城市与区域空间转型的主流理论框架,新国家空间(New State Space, NSS)框架已被国内学者应用于诠释中国国家空间重构过程。论文梳理了NSS框架的提出背景、重要概念、主要观点以及国内外相关研究成果,发现NSS框架虽能为碎片化的全球空间治理研究提供一个统一的分析视角与平台,但却可能因概念泛化且缺乏可证伪性、框架固化而难以捕捉繁复情境、复杂化现象问题等潜在缺陷而引发理论本体模糊。同时,中国存在特殊的国土空间行政结构、政府间关系、所有制安排、地方官员晋升机制以及市场经济发展路径,基于欧美背景的NSS框架难以准确解析中国的本地化场景。此外,国内学界对NSS框架涉及的概念术语尚缺乏必要的辨析,在某种程度上存在对本土现象的机械化解读,可能导致难以深入探究多尺度国家空间转型的实际过程与底层逻辑,不能实现国内外学界的深度学术对话,进而无法掌握改革开放以来中国空间转型研究领域的话语权。未来有必要重新审视NSS框架的内涵外延,理性解读中国空间转型的实践,力争以本土化实践为基础,构建更具普适性的理论框架来兼容不同国家的情境,在国际上发出中国学者的声音。 相似文献
14.
Jinghai Xu Timothy L. Nyerges Gaozhong Nie 《International journal of geographical information science》2014,28(1):185-205
Earthquake emergency response is one of the three earthquake disaster mitigation work systems in China, already achieving good results in some earthquake disaster mitigation situations. Earthquake emergency plans and emergency command systems are among the most important research and operations components of emergency response. These components commonly come with challenges, such as the pertinence of emergency commands and the operability of the countermeasures to be improved. The promise for solving this problem resides with applying knowledge that aids intelligence creation for decision-making. In this paper, we put forward a conceptual model of knowledge for earthquake disaster emergency response (EDER); compositions of EDER knowledge are introduced within architecture. A modeling method incorporating geo-ontology is used to build basic modeling primitives. Geo-ontology serves to represent geospatial characteristics of the EDER knowledge and addresses a need for semantic interoperability in the modeling process. A decision problem framework and a case study have been used as theoretical framework and an application test, respectively, to evaluate the EDER knowledge architecture and models. The EDER knowledge model provides a foundation for intelligent emergency response that helps solve knowledge problems to improve earthquake disaster response. 相似文献
15.
城市应急避难所的空间配置一直是灾害防治和城市安全研究领域的热点问题。本文以城市居民尽快地,尽少拥挤地到达满足容纳需求的应急避难所为目标,整合遥感影像数据、高精度人口分布数据、交通路网数据和专家知识等数据,综合运用智能体模型和多准则决策方法,对城市避难所空间配置开展研究。本文设计了三类与应急疏散相关的智能体：政府智能体、避难所智能体和居民智能体,来实现应急疏散的模拟,并根据模拟结果支持应急避难所的空间选址和配置。选址方法上运用了多准则决策方法和权重敏感性分析,在选址高适宜区域内选定避难所的新建方案。以新的避难所空间布局和配置为条件,执行新一轮的应急疏散模拟过程,实现选址的循环优化,从而获得最终的避难所空间配置方案。本文以上海市静安区的应急避难所空间配置分析为案例,生成了该区域应急避难所的详细空间配置方案,该方案能帮助居民在尽少拥挤风险下尽快疏散到附近的避难所。本文提出的方法充实了中国城市避难所选址的相关理论与可操作性的技术基础,为其他地区开展避难所的配置工作提供借鉴与参考。 相似文献
16.
The geography of smoking in Leeds: estimating individual smoking rates and the implications for the location of stop smoking services 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Smoking is an important and topical health issue in the UK. In Leeds, the target is to reduce smoking prevalence by 9 per cent by 2010. However, a key unknown is the likely distribution of smokers across the city. This paper aims to estimate individual smoking rates using microsimulation and hence evaluate the performance of established stop smoking services, e.g. how well do they serve local areas and to what extent does attendance vary between service point locations? Location-allocation modelling is employed to test various location scenarios and provide insight into where to optimally place centres. 相似文献
17.
Wildfire evacuation trigger points are prominent geographic features (e.g., ridge lines, rivers, and roads) utilized in timing evacuation warnings. When a fire crosses a feature, an evacuation warning is issued to the communities or firefighters in the path of the fire. Current methods for generating trigger buffers have limited utility because the resulting buffers are not explicitly tied to prominent geographic features, making it difficult to visually determine when a fire has breached a trigger point. This work aims to address this limitation by using reverse geocoding to identify prominent geographic trigger points that have more value to emergency managers. The method consists of three steps: 1) generate a trigger buffer using fire-spread modeling; 2) utilize online reverse-geocoding to retrieve geographic features proximal to the buffer boundary; and 3) identify the most prominent geographic features using viewshed analysis and compute the warning time each would offer given predicted fire spread rates to proximal communities. A case study of Julian, California is presented to identify prominent geographic trigger points that may have value to emergency managers in improving the timing of wildfire evacuation warnings in this region. 相似文献
18.
以近30 年Web of Science 核心数据库收录的2472 篇应急避难场所相关文献为基础,首先统计发文数量时间分布和期刊分布,然后利用Citespace可视化软件,从发文作者、机构、国家、关键词和学科方向5个方面分别进行知识图谱分析。结果表明：近30年来应急避难场所研究发文呈现由缓慢探索、稳步发展向高速发展的阶段;发文期刊主要为自然灾害类、紧急医学类、工程技术类;研究作者群较多,学术交流较为紧密;美国和中国为发文量最多的国家;路易斯安那州立大学和中国科学技术大学是主要的发文机构;从关键词发现应急避难场所目标人群主要围绕灾害救援和社会弱势群体,研究视角从单一问题和事件开始向综合系统演变,研究方法从定性的方法模型转向动力机制和信息系统开发,研究内容则注重多学科交叉和微观尺度、重视案例实证和信息共享和强调应急避难场所管理;学科方向主要为工程学和公共环境与健康两个学科。在建设韧性城市的背景下,可借鉴国际经验来构建中国应急避难场所研究体系和管理。 相似文献
19.
基于洪涝情景模拟的城市公共服务灾害应急响应空间可达性评价——以医疗急救为例 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
在气候变化和城市化背景下,日益频发的洪涝灾害业已成为当前中国城市面临的重大挑战,也是城市灾害管理和应急响应研究的热点问题之一。本文旨在构建一套适用于城市尺度的洪涝灾害应急响应能力评估范式,以上海市外环以内中心城区为研究区,采用洪涝数值模拟与GIS网络分析相结合的研究方法,评估了当前以及未来正常条件和不同重现期洪涝情景下,城市关键公共服务部门（120急救）应急响应的空间可达性。结果显示：洪涝淹没强度（范围和水深）、道路交通状况（车流速度）以及应急服务机构的数量和位置共同决定了城市洪涝灾害医疗急救的服务范围及响应时间;由于上海市中心城区洪涝影响范围主要分布在黄浦江两岸2~3 km以内区域,因此洪涝对整个中心城区应急医疗服务的影响有限,主要是位于滨江地区部分医院的应急响应范围较正常状态下明显减少,120急救车辆无法或延迟达到部分救援点。研究表明基于洪涝情景模拟的城市公共服务应急响应空间可达性定量化评估方法,具有重要的科学价值和实践意义,可为中国城市洪涝灾害应急管理提供决策依据。 相似文献
20.
Laure Charleux 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(7):1125-1143
The time-geographic distinction between fixed and flexible activities is widely acknowledged to be a somewhat arbitrary dichotomy but is still the current modus operandi for time-geographic calculations. This paper proposes a modification of the classic time-geographic framework to support temporal flexibility in ‘fixed’ activities. This modification is crucial for time-geographic calculations on public transit networks with a low frequency of service, which would otherwise return unstable results. 相似文献