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1.
It has been reported that global warming has negative effects on coral ecosystems in the past 50 years and the effects vary in different ocean environment. In order to make clear the coral reef status in the background of global warming along the south coast of Hainan Island of China, satellite and in situ data are used to retrieve the information of the coral reef status and surrounding environmental factors. The results show that cool water induced by upwelling along the south coast of Hainan Island is found in the area every summer month, especially in the relatively strong El Ni?o years(2002–2003 and 2005). From the NOAA satellite data, degree heating week(DHW) index does not exceed 3 in Sanya Bay even in the relatively strong El Ni?o years. By comparison of a coral reef growth rate in the Sanya Bay with respect to El Ni?o events from 1957 to 2000, coral's growth rate is relatively greater during 1972, 1991–1994 and 1998 El Ni?o event. By analyzing the environmental factors, it is found that the cool water induced by upwelling may be the main reason for protecting corals from global warming effects.  相似文献   

2.
气候模式FIO-ESM对2015/16年厄尔尼诺的预测   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Recently atmospheric and oceanic observations indicate the tropical Pacific is at the El Ni?o condition. However,it's not clear whether this El Ni?o event of this year is comparable to the very strong one of 1997/98 which brought huge influence on the whole world. In this study, based on the Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter(EAKF)assimilation scheme and First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model(FIO-ESM), the assimilation system is setup, which can provide reasonable initial conditions for prediction. And the hindcast results suggest the skill of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) prediction is comparable to other dynamical coupled models. Then the prediction for 2015/16 El Ni?o by using FIO-ESM is started from 1 November 2015. The ensemble results indicate that the 2015/16 El Ni?o will continue to be strong. By the end of 2015, the strongest strength is very like more than 2.0°C and the ensemble mean strength is 2.34°C, which indicates 2015/16 El Ni?o event will be very strong but slightly less than that of 1997/98 El Ni?o event(2.40°C) calculated relative a climatology based on the years1992–2014. The prediction results also suggest 2015/16 El Ni?o event will be a transition to ENSO-neutral level in the early spring(FMA) 2016, and then may transfer to La Ni?a in summer 2016.  相似文献   

3.
热带太平洋第二类El Nio事件及其对中国气候的影响   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
基于热带太平洋次表层海温资料,分析了热带太平洋第二类El Nio事件海温异常的分布特征及其形成机制,讨论了与经典El Nio事件、El Nio Modoki、WP(西太平洋暖池)及CT(冷舌)El Nio事件之间的关系,揭示了第二类El Nio事件对中国降水的影响,得到以下结论。(1)第二类El Nio事件表征为热带太平洋次表层海温异常第三模态,占总方差贡献的4.7%。在海洋表面层,第二类El Nio事件暖期赤道东太平洋为沿赤道西伸的冷舌,热带中西太平洋为环绕冷舌的马蹄型大范围暖区。该型具11a和30~40a年代际振荡及3~4a年际变率,峰值多出现在春季。第二类El Nio事件是热带太平洋异常海面风应力场和赤道两侧的风应力旋度共同作用的结果,在赤道东印度洋-中西太平洋与赤道东太平洋-南美洲上空出现以反号垂直运动为特征的异常Walker环流。(2)El Nio Modoki与第二类El Nio事件有密切关系,它实质上是第二类El Nio事件次表层海温与近海面大气相互作用的结果,捕捉了第二类El Nio事件的主要信息。(3)第二类El Nio事件对中国春季及夏初降水有一定影响。在事件暖期,东海地区存在一个显著的异常反气旋性环流,其南侧的中国南方地区盛行异常东北气流,水汽来源减少,导致该地区少雨,其西侧的异常偏南气流北上直达华北地区,异常多水汽向北输送,并与北方的偏北流场相遇,导致该地区降水偏多。在第二类El Nio事件冷期相反。本文结果还指出,WP与CT El Nio事件是由经典El Nio事件第一模态与El Nio Modoki事件组合而成,它们不是独立的El Nio类型。此外,还讨论了夏半年El Nio事件对大气环流影响的物理过程。  相似文献   

4.
南海珊瑚礁区34年卫星遥感海表温度变化的时空特征分析   总被引:5,自引:3,他引:2  
选取NOAA OISST数据集的1982-2015年南海月平均海洋表面温度(SST),先对东沙、西沙和南沙礁区海域的多年SST进行时间尺度上的统计,然后对该数据集进行距平场的经验正交函数(EOF)分解,研究南海海表温度的时间和空间年际变化特征。研究显示:(1)不同的礁区海域SST升温趋势不同,东沙礁区海域SST升温趋势最明显(0.216℃/(10 a)),西沙和南沙礁区SST的升温趋势分别为0.180℃/(10 a)和0.096℃/(10 a);(2)西沙和南沙礁区全年处于珊瑚生长的最适海温范围内,东沙一年中有4个月海温较低,SST最高的月份分别集中在7月(东沙礁区)、6月(西沙礁区)和5月(南沙礁区);(3) EOF第一模态的空间分布显示南海SST变化是同相位的,由西北—东南振幅量值递减,在礁区振幅从大到小依次为东沙、西沙、南沙;(4) EOF第一模态时间系数显示南海SST变化与El Niño事件相关。南海海表温度异常场与Niño3.4指数的相关性分析显示两者关联度最高为0.723,平均关联度也高达0.655;南海SST的变化滞后Niño3.4区7~8个月。综上,在全球变暖背景下,南海SST的变化不仅受到El Niño事件的影响,其不断上升也在悄然威胁珊瑚的正常生长。  相似文献   

5.
Recent studies suggest a future increase in sponge bioerosion as an outcome of coral reef decline around the world. However, the factors that shape boring sponge assemblages in coral reefs are not currently well understood. This work presents the results of a 17‐month assessment of the presence and species richness of boring sponges in fragments collected from living corals, dead coral reef matrix and coral rubble from Punta de Mita and Isabel Island, two coral reefs from the central coast of the Mexican Pacific Ocean. Both localities have a high cover of dead corals generated by past El Niño Southern Oscillation events, but Punta de Mita was also highly exposed to anthropogenic impacts. Additionally, environmental factors (water transparency, water movement, temperature, sediment deposition, SST, and chlorophyll concentration) were assessed to test the hypothesis that environmental conditions which are potentially harmful for corals can enhance sponge bioerosion. Isabel Island and Punta de Mita showed a similar species richness (13 and 11 species, respectively) but boring sponge presence in both live and dead corals was higher at Isabel Island (57.6%) than at Punta de Mita (35.7%). The same result was obtained when each type of substrate was analysed separately: dead coral reef matrix (81.3% versus 55.5%), coral rubble (47.7% versus 20.0%) and living corals (43.7% versus 31.7%). A principal components analysis showed a higher environmental heterogeneity at Punta de Mita, as well as important environmental differences between Punta de Mita and Isabel Island, due to sediment deposition (2.0 versus 0.2 kg·m?2·d?1) and water movement (24.5% versus 20.5% plaster dissolution day?1), that were also negatively correlated with boring sponge presence (r = ?0.7). By analysing the boring sponge assemblage, we found that environmental settings, together with habitat availability (i.e., dead coral substrate) differentiated assemblage structure at both localities. Major structural differences were largely due to species such as Cliona vermifera, Cliona tropicalis and Aka cryptica. In conclusion, factors such as habitat availability favored the presence of boring sponges but some environmental factors such as abrasion resulting from moving sediment acted restrictively, and exerted a major role in structuring boring sponge assemblages in the Mexican Pacific.  相似文献   

6.
The trends of the sea surface temperature(SST) and SST fronts in the South China Sea(SCS) are analyzed during2003–2017 using high-resolution satellite data. The linear trend of the basin averaged SST is 0.31°C per decade,with the strongest warming identified in southeastern Vietnam. Although the rate of warming is comparable in summer and winter for the entire basin, the corresponding spatial patterns of the linear trend are substantially different between them. The SST trend to the west of the Luzon Strait is characterized by rapid warming in summer, exceeding approximately 0.6°C per decade, but the trend is insignificant in winter. The strongest warming trend occurs in the southeast of Vietnam in winter, with much less pronounced warming in summer. A positive trend of SST fronts is identified for the coast of China and is associated with increasing wind stress. The increasing trend of SST fronts is also found in the east of Vietnam. Large-scale circulation, such as El Ni?o, can influence the trends of the SST and SST fronts. A significant correlation is found between the SST anomaly and Ni?o3.4 index, and the ENSO signal leads by eight months. The basin averaged SST linear trends increase after the El Ni?o event(2009–2010), which is, at least, due to the rapid warming rate causing by the enhanced northeasterly wind. Peaks of positive anomalous SST and negatively anomalous SST fronts are found to co-occur with the strong El Ni?o events.  相似文献   

7.
Bioerosion is a natural process in coral reefs. It is fundamental to the health of these ecosystems. In the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) coral reefs, the most important bioeroders are sponges, bivalves, sea urchins and the fish Arothron meleagris. In the 1980s, El Niño caused high coral mortality and an increase in macroalgal growth. As a result, greater sea urchin bioerosion occurred. This weakened the reef framework. Considering the high vulnerability of the ETP coral reefs, the goal of this study was to determine the current bioerosion impact of the sea urchin Diadema mexicanum along the western coasts of Mexico, El Salvador, Costa Rica and Panamá. The balance between coral bioaccretion and sea urchin bioerosion was also calculated. Between 2009 and 2010, in 12 coral reefs localities, D. mexicanum density, bottom cover and rugosity were quantified along band transects. The daily bioerosion rate was obtained from the amount of carbonates evacuated by sea urchins per unit time. The rate of coral accretion was calculated by multiplying the coral growth rate of the dominant genus by the density of their skeleton and by their specific coral cover. The localities were dissimilar (R = 0.765, P < 0.001) in terms of live coral cover, crustose calcareous algae, turf cover, rugosity index, and density and size of D. mexicanum. At all sites, with the exception of Bahía Culebra (Costa Rica), coral bioerosion was less than coral bioaccretion. Diadema mexicanum plays a dominant role in the balance of carbonates in the ETP, but this depends on reef condition (protection, overfishing, eutrophication) and so the impacts can be either positive or negative.  相似文献   

8.
Eastern Pacific reefs are mostly made up of interlocking coral branches of Pocillopora, which are easily broken by physical forces associated with heavy swells and winds. In this study we investigated the potential of these coral fragments to enable propagation of boring sponges. For this, we quantified the frequency of occurrence and diversity of boring sponges in fragments of corals recently trapped among the branches of live colonies, and later tested the hypothesis that these sponges colonize new branches of corals. Nearly 80% of the coral colonies investigated had coral fragments among their branches, and 69% of these coral fragments contained boring sponges (11 species), some of these sponges in reproduction (23% of them carried oocytes). To test whether sponges inhabiting coral fragments could colonize new branching corals we transplanted them to healthy branches, and to branches whose living tissue was mechanically eliminated to simulate damage produced by grazing and death after bleaching and other causes of coral tissue mortality. All the transplanted coral fragments cemented to each new colony by means of calcification, and of the three sponge species tested (Cliona vermifera, Cliona tropicalis and Thoosa mismalolli) only C. vermifera was able to colonize both new living branches (26.9%) and cleaned branches (65.5%). The apparent capability of C. vermifera to colonize by direct contact may be another key ability of this species to maintain high frequency of occurrence in Pacific coral reefs. However, although C. tropicalis and T. mismalolli were not able to colonize new coral substrata by direct contact, coral fragments have the potential to contribute to local persistence of these sponges and to their dispersal, both by asexual (fragments) and sexual means (transport of sexual products). The present findings may partly explain the current increase of excavating sponges on deteriorating reefs with a large availability of dead branching corals.  相似文献   

9.
西风爆发、次表层暖水东移与厄尔尼诺现象   总被引:7,自引:2,他引:7       下载免费PDF全文
利用最近20 a的大气海洋资料,分析了厄尔尼诺事件与赤道太平洋西风异常以及赤道太平洋次表层海温之间的关系.结果表明,赤道西太平洋(5°S~5°N,120°~160°E)和赤道中东太平洋(5°S~5°N,160°E~160°W)西风异常都存在着与厄尔尼诺周期一致的年际变化,但前者还包含有显著的2~3个月季节内振荡.赤道西太平洋次表层冷暖水东移也呈现年和年际时间尺度的振荡周期.在厄尔尼诺发生前,赤道西太平洋次表层海水出现持续性增暖,赤道西太平洋西风异常频率加快,强度增强.随后赤道中太平洋(160°E~160°W)出现持续性(3个月以上)强西风异常(即西风爆发),并进一步向东扩展,同时次表层暖水沿着赤道波导东移到赤道东太平洋混合层,导致赤道东太平洋海表大面积异常增暖,形成一次厄尔尼诺现象.最后,模式模拟了1980~1984年赤道太平洋海温的变化,进一步证实了赤道纬向西风异常对暖水东移起着重要的作用.  相似文献   

10.
Sponges are sessile organisms capable of colonizing diverse substrata. In the Caribbean, coral reefs have suffered a drastic decline, and branching corals of the genus Acropora have been widely decimated. On dead coral skeletons and around surviving tissue the settling of sessile organisms can be observed, sponges being common. In order to investigate whether or not sponges have a preference for a particular species of coral, or for specific microhabitats of the colonies, we evaluated species composition, cover, richness and diversity of sponges colonizing the dead parts of still live colonies of the branching corals Acropora palmata and Acropora cervicornis in five locations of the Tayrona National Natural Park in the Colombian Caribbean. Ten colonies of Ac. palmata were quantified in each of the five locations, and eight Ac. cervicornis colonies in each of two locations. Quantification was carried out using video taken within 0.625‐m2 photoquadrats. Seventeen sponge species were found, 13 of them associated with Ac. palmata and seven with Ac. cervicornis. Desmapsamma anchorata, Clathria venosa and Scopalina rutzleri were found to be common to all Ac. palmata locations, while De. anchorata occurred in the two Ac. cervicornis locations. On Ac. palmata, encrusting sponges dominated, while on Ac. cervicornis branched and lobed sponges predominated. Significant differences in sponge cover were not found among locations but were observed in the sponge species present. On Ac. palmata the species with highest cover were D. anchorata and Cla. venosa, while on Ac. cervicornis it was De. anchorata. The richness and diversity of sponges were low for both coral species, and their varying distribution can be attributed to the differences in available substrate for attachment, given coral colony morphology; for Ac. palmata, sponges predominated on the underside of the branches, semi‐cryptic areas and colony bases, whereas for Ac. cervicornis, they were located over the entire area of the cylindrical branches. Surviving colonies of Ac. palmata and Ac. cervicornis that are still erect offer additional microhabitats for reef sponges, some of which can be found directly interacting with live coral tissue, further threatening their recovery.  相似文献   

11.
Coral reefs throughout the world are under severe challenges from many environmental factors. This paper quantifies the size structure of populations and the growth rates of corals from 2000 to 2008 to test whether the Discovery Bay coral colonies showed resilience in the face of multiple acute stressors of hurricanes and bleaching. There was a reduction in numbers of colonies in the smallest size class for all the species at all the sites in 2006, after the mass bleaching of 2005, with subsequent increases for all species at all sites in 2007 and 2008. Radial growth rates (mm yr−1) of non-branching corals and linear extension rates (mm yr−1) of branching corals calculated on an annual basis from 2000–2008 showed few significant differences either spatially or temporally. At Dairy Bull reef, live coral cover increased from 13 ± 5% in 2006 to 20 ± 9% in 2007 and 31 ± 7% in 2008, while live Acropora species increased from 2 ± 2% in 2006 to 10 ± 4% in 2007 and 22 ± 7% in 2008. These studies indicate good levels of coral resilience on the fringing reefs around Discovery Bay in Jamaica.  相似文献   

12.
Sven Zea 《Marine Ecology》2011,32(2):162-173
The Caribbean sponge Cliona delitrix is among the strongest reef space competitors; it is able to overpower entire coral heads by undermining coral polyps. It has become abundant in reefs exposed to organic pollution, such as San Andrés Island, Colombia, SW Caribbean. Forty‐four sponge‐colonized coral colonies were followed‐up for 13 months to establish the circumstances and the speed at which this sponge advances laterally into live coral tissue and the coral tissue retreats. Cliona delitrix presence and abundance was recorded at seven stations to interpret current reef space and coral species colonization trends. The spread of C. delitrix on a coral colony was preceded by a band of dead coral a few millimeters to several centimeters wide. However, the sponge was directly responsible for coral death only when live coral tissue was within about 2 cm distance; coral death became sponge advance‐independent at greater distances, being indirectly dependent on other conditions that tend to accelerate its retreat. Cliona delitrix advanced fastest into recently killed clean coral calices; however, sponge spread slowed down when these became colonized by algae. The lateral advance of C. delitrix was slower than other Cliona spp. encrusting excavating sponges, probably owing to the greater depth of its excavation into the substratum. Cliona delitrix prefers elevated portions of massive corals, apparently settling on recently dead areas. It currently inhabits 6–9% of colonies in reefs bordering San Andrés. It was found more frequently in Siderastrea siderea (the most abundant local massive coral), which is apparently more susceptible to tissue mortality than other corals. Current massive coral mortality caused by C. delitrix could initially change the relative proportions of coral species and in the long‐term favor foliose and branching corals.  相似文献   

13.
Physical factors affecting El Niño events are subdivided into two categories. The first category includes those physical factors that have been demonstrated by modern science to have an effect on El Niño events. The second category comprises those physical factors that are only a hypothesis based on correlations that have yet to be corroborated to have affected El Niño events. This paper proposes the concept of a cause chain for an El Niño, pointing out that physical factors are linked and interdependent. The feedback effect and decrease-increase effect upon physical factors within the cause chain provide results superior to any single theory. We can only further explore the feedback effect and decrease-increase effect together with comprehensive analysis on the contributive ratio of these physical factors so as to improve the forecast accuracy of El Niño events. This represents a new way of thinking in the explanation of the cause of El Niño events.  相似文献   

14.
ENSO indices from sea surface salinity observed by Aquarius and Argo   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Analysis of the first 26 months of data from the Aquarius satellite confirms the existence of a sharp sea surface salinity (SSS) front along the equator in the western equatorial Pacific. Following several earlier studies, we use the longitudinal location of the 34.8-psu isohaline as an index, termed Niño-S34.8, to measure the zonal displacement of the SSS front and consequently the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool. The on-going collection of the Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography (ARGO) program data shows high correlations between Niño-S34.8 and the existing indices of El Niño, suggesting its potential important role in ENSO evolution. Further analysis of the ARGO data reveals that SSS variability in the southeastern tropical Pacific is crucial to identify the type of El Niño. A new SSS index, termed the southeastern Pacific SSS index (SEPSI), is defined based on the SSS variability in the region (0°–10°S, 150°–90°W). The SEPSI is highly correlated with the El Niño Modoki index, as well as the Trans-Niño index, introduced by previous studies. It has large positive anomalies during central Pacific El Niño or El Niño Modoki events, as a result of enhanced zonal sea surface temperature gradients between the central and eastern tropical Pacific, and can be used to characterize the type of El Niño. The processes that possibly control these SSS indices are also discussed.  相似文献   

15.
Changes and fluctuations in sea surface temperature (SST) around the South African coast are analysed at a monthly scale from 1982 to 2009. There is a statistically significant negative trend of up to 0.5 °C per decade in the southern Benguela from January to August, and a cooling trend of lesser magnitude along the South Coast and in the Port Elizabeth/Port Alfred region from May to August. The cooling is due to an increase in upwelling-favourable south-easterly and easterly winds. There is a positive trend in SST of up to 0.55 °C per decade in most parts of the Agulhas Current system during all months of the year, except for KwaZulu-Natal where warming is in summer. The warming was attributed to an intensification of the Agulhas Current in response to a poleward shift of westerly winds and an increase in trade winds in the South Indian Ocean at relevant latitudes. This intensification of the Agulhas Current could also have contributed to the coastal cooling in the Port Alfred dynamic upwelling region. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is significantly positively correlated at a 95% level with the southern Benguela and South Coast from February to May, and negatively correlated with the Agulhas Current system south of 36° S. The correlation with the Antarctic Annular Oscillation is weaker and less coherent. El Niño suppresses upwelling along the coast, whereas La Niña increases it. Although there does not seem to be a linear relationship between the strength of the ENSO and the magnitude of coastal SST perturbation, El Niño and La Niña appear to be linked to major warm and cool events, respectively, at a seasonal scale in summer in the southern Benguela and along the South Coast. However, care must be taken in interpreting low-resolution reanalysed climate data (ERA40 and NCEP) and optimally interpolated Reynolds SST, such as used here.  相似文献   

16.
Time-series data from sediment trap moorings intermittently deployed during 1991–1999 show that the fluxes of biogenic material (carbonate, opal and organic matter, including amino acids) and other related parameters are temporally and spatially distinct across the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). These variations resulted from the El Niño and La Niña conditions, which alternately prevailed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the mooring deployments. The westernmost WPWP (a hemipelagic region) recorded relatively high average total mass and amino acid fluxes during the El Niño event. This was in sharp contrast to the eastern part of the WPWP (oligotrophic and weak upwelling regions) which recorded higher flux values during the La Niña event. Settling particulate organic matter was rich in labile components (amino acids) during La Niña throughout the study area. Relative molar ratios of aspartic acid to β-alanine together with relative molar content of non-protein amino acids β-alanine and γ-aminobutyric acid) suggested that organic matter degradation was more intense during La Niña relative to that during El Niño in the WPWP. This study clearly shows that during an El Niño event the well documented decrease in export flux in the easternmost equatorial Pacific is accompanied by a significant increase in export flux in the westernmost equatorial Pacific Ocean.  相似文献   

17.
We investigate an overlooked mechanism—coastal upwelling—for sea surface temperature (SST) cooling in the western side of the mean location of the Pacific warm pool (WSWP: 5°S–5°N, 140°E–150°E) prior to El Niño onset. We analyze various observed data such as the TRIangle Trans-Ocean buoy Network (TRITON) moored buoy data, Conductivity-Temperature-Depth (CTD) data, satellite data and a hindcast experiment output by a high-resolution ocean general circulation model (OGCM). We focus on the precondition of the 2002/03 El Niño event, for which many datasets are available. Relatively cool water upwelled along the north coast of Papua New Guinea (PNG) during December 2001, prior to the onset of the 2002/03 El Niño event, and then spread out over a wider area to the northeast. Simultaneously, strong west-northerly surface winds occur along the north coast. Heat budget analysis of TRITON buoy data in the WSWP reveals that negative zonal heat advection due to eastward current is the main factor for cooling the mixed layer in the WSWP in contrast to the warming effect of the surface heat flux during the period. This cooling requires a source of colder water to the west. Similar analysis of OGCM outputs also suggests that the upwelled relatively cool water along the PNG north coast, and its northeastward extension to the equatorial region, contributes to cooling of the surface water over the WSWP mainly via negative zonal heat advection. Similar mechanisms are confirmed also for the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events by analyses of OGCM outputs and historical SST data. The low SST in the WSWP generated a positive zonal SST gradient together with high SST east of the WSWP. It may contribute to enhancement of the westerly surface wind in this region, leading to the onset of the 2002/03 El Niño event.  相似文献   

18.
ENSO-induced interannual variability in the southeastern South China Sea   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
In this study, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced interannual variability in the South China Sea (SCS) is documented using outputs from an eddy-resolving data-assimilating model. It is suggested that during an El Niño (La Niña) event, off-equatorial upwelling (downwelling) Rossby waves induced by Pacific equatorial wind anomalies impinge on the Philippine Islands and excite upwelling (downwelling) coastal Kelvin waves that propagate northward along the west coast of the Philippines after entering the SCS through the Mindoro Strait. The coastal Kelvin waves may then induce negative (positive) sea level anomalies in the southeastern SCS and larger (smaller) volume transport through the Mindoro and Luzon Straits during an El Niño (La Niña) event.  相似文献   

19.
厄尔尼诺和台风共同影响下的7月份黄、东海海温变化   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
张守文  王辉  姜华  宋春阳  杜凌 《海洋学报》2017,39(12):32-41
基于历史海温数据和台风路径数据,研究了厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜(El Niño/La Niña)背景下7月份中国近海海温变化特征。结果表明:7月黄、东海海温异常与El Niño/La Niña有显著相关关系,OISST和GODAS海温数据与Niño3指数同步相关系数分别为-0.32和-0.45。El Niño年7月,黄、东海海表温度异常低于-0.5℃的概率超过60%;La Niña年7月,黄海海温异常高于0.5℃的概率约有60%;正常年7月,海温异常的空间分布与El Niño年相反,但量值偏低。El Niño年7月,中国近海及邻近区域大气异常能够给局地带来更多降水;同时,受El Niño背景场的影响,入侵黄、东海的台风强度更强、影响时间更长。大尺度的降水和台风活动的影响是导致黄、东海海温异常降低的重要原因。因此,分析和预测7月份中国近海海温异常,在充分考虑El Niño/La Niña背景场的基础上,需要结合局地的大尺度降水和台风的影响同时分析,这为特定背景下结合不同时间尺度上的因素共同分析中国近海海温变化提供了一种思路。  相似文献   

20.
This study reveals the physical backgrounds of the geometric centroid and the thermal centroid of the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) and points out their differences. The geometric centroid (actually a very close approximation to the mass centroid) anomaly of the surface WPWP correlates more closely with the Niño-3 region sea surface temperature anomaly (Niño-3 SSTA, an important indicator of El Niño/La Niña events) than the surface thermal centroid. Taking the WPWP depth (or heat storage) into account, the “real” mass or thermal centroid of the WPWP might correlate better with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals.  相似文献   

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