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1.
Aerial photographs taken in 1978 and 1987, Landsat TM images in 1998 as well as soil, hydrology and socio-economic data for the oases in Sangong River Watershed were processed by Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS). There are two typical agricultural land uses in oases,Farm-based Land Use with large-scale intensified agricultural activities (FLU) and Household Responsibility-based Land Use with small-scale activities (HRLU). The Index Model of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LUCC), Weighted Index Sum (WIS) and logistic stepwise regression model were established to contrast the two typical LUCC processes and their driving forces. The land use patterns were dominated by cropland and grassland for the entire region, and cropland, residential and industrial land were increasing stably. In the HRLU areas, woodland and grassland declined dramatically, but in the FLU areas, grassland decreased only by 12.0%, whereas woodland increased by 13.7%. LUCC was stronger in the earlier stage (1978-1987) than in the later stage (1987-1998) for the entire region. LUCC was more intense in the HRLU areas than in the FLU areas during the entire period (1978-1998). Policy was a key factor in the land use change, and water resources were a precondition in land use. Under the control of policy and water resources,the main human driving factors included population and economy, and the main natural restrictions were soil fertility and groundwater depth. Human driving factors controlled the land change in the HRLU areas, but natural restriction factors dominated in the FLU areas. In the mean time,intensification of LUCC in the region had some spatiotemporal implications with a fluctuation of impact factors.  相似文献   

2.
Aerial photographs taken in 1978 and 1987, Landsat TM images in 1998 as well as soil, hydrology and socio-economic data for the oases in Sangong River Watershed were processed by Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS). There are two typical agricultural land uses in oases, Farm-based Land Use with large-scale intensified agricultural activities (FLU) and Household Responsibility-based Land Use with small-scale activities (HRLU). The Index Model of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LUCC), Weighted Index Sum (WIS) and logistic stepwise regression model were established to contrast the two typical LUCC processes and their driving forces. The land use patterns were dominated by cropland and grassland for the entire region, and cropland, residential and industrial land were increasing stably. In the HRLU areas, woodland and grassland declined dramatically, but in the FLU areas, grassland decreased only by 12.0%, whereas woodland increased by 13.7%. LUCC was stronger in the earlier stage (1978–1987) than in the later stage (1987–1998) for the entire region. LUCC was more intense in the HRLU areas than in the FLU areas during the entire period (1978–1998). Policy was a key factor in the land use change, and water resources were a precondition in land use. Under the control of policy and water resources, the main human driving factors included population and economy, and the main natural restrictions were soil fertility and groundwater depth. Human driving factors controlled the land change in the HRLU areas, but natural restriction factors dominated in the FLU areas. In the mean time, intensification of LUCC in the region had some spatiotemporal implications with a fluctuation of impact factors.  相似文献   

3.
This study analyzes land use dynamics, land fragmentation, variation of ecosystem service value (ESV), and the underlying driving forces in the context of rapid urbanization in Taizhou city, China. An integrated approach utilizing geographic information system and remote sensing was used to analyze land use/land cover change, spatiotemporal patterns of land fragmentation and variation of ESV over the period of 1995–2010. The results show that the areal extent of built-up land increased by 3.72 times, whereas loss of the cropland, forest, and fallow land accounted for 18.52, 34.80, and 28.94 % of the new built-up land, respectively. As observed, in-filling of the major traffic road networks and axis-based expansion of built-up land occurred. Outward expansion of the built-up land, in particular, indicated that human encroachment into surrounding natural and semi-natural ecosystems leading to decreased total ecosystem service functions of the study area. As a whole, significant change in key landscape, especially a net decrease in forest, and remarkable socioeconomic development should be responsible for an overall decline in 36.29 % of total ESV during the recently rapid urbanization process. Therefore, sustainable development policies should address the decline of ESV.  相似文献   

4.
Increased nitrogen(N) deposition and land-use and land-cover change(LUCC) have influenced the terrestrial ecosystem carbon budget in China over the past few decades.However,the coupling effects of N deposition and LUCC on the carbon cycle remain unclear.This study first evaluated the effects of LUCC on N deposition based on estimated N deposition data from NO_2 column remote sensing data and the GlobeLand30 LUCC dataset,and then assessed the coupling effects of N deposition and LUCC on carbon budgets in China based on a terrestrial ecosystem process-based model.The results showed that the average rate of increase in N deposition in China was 0.35 Tg N yr~(-1)(Tg = 10~(12) g),which caused net primary production(NPP) and net ecosystem production(NEP) to rise by 92.2 Tg C yr~(-1) and 46.9 Tg C yr~(-1),respectively.The effects of LUCC reduced N deposition by 0.21 GgNyr~(-1)(Gg= 10~9g).The land changed from forest to cropland had the greatest rate of increase in N deposition among all types of land-cover change.Changes from cropland to forest slowed the rate of N deposition increase the most.Generally,the change in N deposition resulting from LUCC reduced NPP and NEP by 0.7 and 0.4 Gg C yr~(-1),respectively.Compared with the total effects of N deposition on NPP and NEP,N deposition changes caused by LUCC had a limited aggregate effect on the C budget.  相似文献   

5.
Assessments of the impacts of land use and land cover changes(LUCC) on the terrestrial carbon budget, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and CO2-related climatic change are important to understand the environmental effects of LUCC and provide information about the effects of historical carbon emissions. Using regional land cover reconstructions from historical records, with a bookkeeping model, we estimated the carbon sink changes caused by historical cropland expansion in Northeast China during the past 300 years. The conclusions are as follows:(1) There was a dramatic land reclamation of cropland during the past 300 years in Northeast China. Approximately 26% of the natural land was cultivated, and 38% of the grassland and 20% of the forest and shrubland were converted to cropland.(2) The carbon emission induced by cropland expansion between 1683 and 1980 was 1.06–2.55 Pg C, and the estimation from the moderate scenario was 1.45 Pg C. The carbon emissions of the soil carbon pool was larger than that from the vegetation carbon pool and comprised more than 2/3 of the total carbon emissions.(3) The carbon emissions of the three provinces in Northeast China were different. Heilongjiang Province had the largest carbon emissions, and Jilin Province had the second largest emissions.(4) The primary source of carbon emissions was forest reclamation(taking 60% of the total emissions in the moderate scenario), the secondary source was grassland cultivation(taking 27%), and the tertiary sources were shrubland and wetland reclamation(taking 13%). Examination on the data accuracy revealed that the high-resolution regional land cover data allowed the carbon budget to be evaluated at the county level and improved the precision of the results. The carbon emission estimation in this study was lower than those in previous studies because of the improved land use data quality and various types of land use change considered.  相似文献   

6.
Abstract

An integrated model, combining a surface energy balance system, an LAI-based interception model and a distributed monthly water balance model, was developed to predict hydrological impacts of land-use/land-cover change (LUCC) in the East River basin, China, with the aid of GIS/RS. The integrated model is a distributed model that not only accounts for spatial variations in basin terrain, rainfall and soil moisture, but also considers spatial and temporal variation of vegetation cover and evapotranspiration (ET), in particular, thus providing a powerful tool for investigating the hydrological impact of LUCC. The model was constructed using spatial data on topography, soil types and vegetation characteristics together with time series of precipitation from 170 stations in the basin. The model was calibrated and validated based on river discharge data from three stations in the basin for 21 years. The calibration and validation results suggested that the model is suitable for application in the basin. The results show that ET has a positive relationship with LAI (leaf area index), while runoff has a negative relationship with LAI in the same climatic zone that can be described by the surface energy balance and water balance equation. It was found that deforestation would cause an increase in annual runoff and a decrease in annual ET in southern China. Monthly runoff for different land-cover types was found to be inversely related to ET. Also, for most of the scenarios, and particularly for grassland and cropland, the most significant changes occurred in the rainy season, indicating that deforestation would cause a significant increase in monthly runoff in that season in the East River basin. These results are important for water resources management and environmental change monitoring.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz  相似文献   

7.
Climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC) are two factors that produce major impacts on hydrological processes. Understanding and quantifying their respective influence is of great importance for water resources management and socioeconomic activities as well as policy and planning for sustainable development. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated in upper stream of the Heihe River in Northwest China. The reliability of the SWAT model was corroborated in terms of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), the correlation coefficient (R), and the relative bias error (BIAS). The findings proposed a new method employing statistical separation procedures using a physically based modeling system for identifying the individual impacts of climate change and LUCC on hydrology processes, in particular on the aspects of runoff and evapotranspiration (ET). The results confirmed that SWAT was a powerful and accurate model for diagnosis of a key challenge facing the Heihe River Basin. The model assessment metrics, NSE, R, and BIAS, in the data were 0.91%, 0.95%, and 1.14%, respectively, for the calibration period and 0.90%, 0.96%, and ?0.15%, respectively, for the validation period. An assessment of climate change possibility showed that precipitation, runoff, and air temperature exhibited upward trends with a rate of 15.7 mm, 6.1 mm, and 0.38 °C per decade for the 1980 to 2010 period, respectively. Evaluation of LUCC showed that the changes in growth of vegetation, including forestland, grassland, and the shrub area have increased gradually while the barren area has decreased. The integrated effects of LUCC and climate change increased runoff and ET values by 3.2% and 6.6% of the total runoff and ET, respectively. Climate change outweighed the impact of LUCC, thus showing respective increases in runoff and ET of about 107.3% and 81.2% of the total changes. The LUCC influence appeared to be modest by comparison and showed about ?7.3% and 18.8% changes relative to the totals, respectively. The increase in runoff caused by climate change factors is more than the offsetting decreases resulting from LUCC. The outcomes of this study show that the climate factors accounted for the notable effects more significantly than LUCC on hydrological processes in the upper stream of the Heihe River.  相似文献   

8.
This study aims to quantify the contribution of land use/cover change (LUCC) during the last three decades to climate change conditions in eastern China. The effects of farmland expansion in Northeast China, grassland degradation in Northwest China, and deforestation in South China were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in addition to the latest actual land cover datasets. The simulated results show that when forestland is converted to farmland, the air temperature decreased owing to an increase in surface albedo in Northeast China. The climatic effect of grassland degradation on the Loess Plateau was insignificant because of the negligible difference in albedo between grassland and cropland. In South China, deforestation generally led to a decrease in temperature. Furthermore, the temperature decrease caused by the increase in albedo counteracted the warming effects of the evapotranspiration decrease, so the summer temperature change was not significant in South China. Excluding the effects of urbanization in the North China Plain, the LUCC effects across the entire region of East China presented an overall cooling trend. However, the variation in temperature scale and magnitude was less in summer than that in winter. This result is due mainly to the cooling caused by the increase in albedo offset partly by the increase in temperature caused by the decrease in evaporation in summer. Summer precipitation showed a trend of increasing–decreasing–increasing from southeast to northwest after LUCC, which was induced mainly by the decrease in surface roughness and cyclone circulations appearing northwest of Northeast China, in the middle of the Loess Plateau, and in Yunnan province at 700 hPa after forests were converted into farmland. All results will be instructive for understanding the influence of LUCC on regional climate and future land planning in practice.  相似文献   

9.
Methodology for credibility assessment of historical global LUCC datasets   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Fang  Xiuqi  Zhao  Wanyi  Zhang  Chengpeng  Zhang  Diyang  Wei  Xueqiong  Qiu  Weili  Ye  Yu 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2020,63(7):1013-1025
Land use-induced land cover change(LUCC) is an important anthropogenic driving force of global change that has influenced, and is still influencing, many aspects of regional and global environments. Accurate historical global land use/cover datasets are essential for a better understanding of the impacts of LUCC on global change. However, there are not only evident inconsistencies in current historical global land use/cover datasets, but inaccuracies in the data in these global dataset revealed by historical record-based reconstructed regional data throughout the world. A focus in historical LUCC and global change research relates to how the accuracy of historical global land cover datasets can be improved. A methodology for assessing the credibility of existing historical global land cover datasets that addresses temporal as well as spatial changes in the amount and distribution of land cover is therefore needed. Theoretically, the credibility of a global land cover dataset could be assessed by comparing similarities or differences in the data according to actual land cover data(the "true value"). However, it is extremely difficult to obtain historical evidence for assessing the credibility of historical global land cover datasets, which cannot be verified through field sampling like contemporary global land cover datasets. We proposed a methodological framework for assessing the credibility of global land cover datasets. Considering the types and characteristics of the available evidence used for assessments,we outlined four methodological approaches:(1) accuracy assessment based on regional quantitative reconstructed land cover data,(2) rationality assessment based on regional historical facts,(3) rationality assessment based on expertise, and(4) likelihood assessment based on the consistency of multiple datasets. These methods were illustrated through five case studies of credibility assessments of historical cropland cover data. This framework can also be applied in assessments of other land cover types, such as forest and grassland.  相似文献   

10.
Desertification is a change in soil properties, vegetation or climate, which results in a persistent loss of ecosystem services that are fundamental to sustaining life. Desertification affects large dryland areas around the world and is a major cause of stress in human societies. Here we review recent research on the drivers, feedbacks, and impacts of desertification. A multidisciplinary approach to understanding the drivers and feedbacks of global desertification is motivated by our increasing need to improve global food production and to sustainably manage ecosystems in the context of climate change. Classic desertification theories look at this process as a transition between stable states in bistable ecosystem dynamics. Climate change (i.e., aridification) and land use dynamics are the major drivers of an ecosystem shift to a “desertified” (or “degraded”) state. This shift is typically sustained by positive feedbacks, which stabilize the system in the new state. Desertification feedbacks may involve land degradation processes (e.g., nutrient loss or salinization), changes in rainfall regime resulting from land-atmosphere interactions (e.g., precipitation recycling, dust emissions), or changes in plant community composition (e.g., shrub encroachment, decrease in vegetation cover). We analyze each of these feedback mechanisms and discuss their possible enhancement by interactions with socio-economic drivers. Large scale effects of desertification include the emigration of “environmental refugees” displaced from degraded areas, climatic changes, and the alteration of global biogeochemical cycles resulting from the emission and long-range transport of fine mineral dust. Recent research has identified some possible early warning signs of desertification, which can be used as indicators of resilience loss and imminent shift to desert-like conditions. We conclude with a brief discussion on some desertification control strategies implemented in different regions around the world.  相似文献   

11.
许刚  朱振国  解晓南 《湖泊科学》2004,16(2):150-157
近10年来,太湖流域上游地区经济发展逐步趋于活跃,受此影响,区域人口-资源、环境-发展(PRED)出现了新的特点与趋势。基于上游地区土地利用/覆被变化对流域整体水环境与生态安全格局所具有的重要意义,本文选择安吉县作为典型案例,分析其区域土地利用的基本特征,土地利用变化与景观格局动态的过程,以及驱动因素与机制,由此揭示山区土地利用/覆被变化的一般性规律,为太湖流域上游地区经济发展与土地利用、环境保护相互协调,提供决策借鉴与依据。  相似文献   

12.
During the past decades, Daqing City, China has experienced unprecedented urban expansion due to the rapid development of petroleum industry. With rapid urbanization and lack of strategic planning, Daqing is facing many socio-economic and environmental problems, and it is essential to examine the process of urbanization, and to develop policy recommendations for sustainable development. To address this problem, this paper examined the urbanization process of Daqing City through developing two multi-level models: an integrated system dynamic (SD) and CLUE-S model (SD-CLUES), and an integrated SD and stochastic cellular automata model (SD-CA). Analysis of results suggests that these two models generate significantly different results. With the SD-CLUES model, new urban developments are clustered in the downtown area or along major transportation networks, indicating exogenous driving forces playing an important role in shaping urban spatial dynamics. With the SD-CA model, on the contrary, the resultant new urban cells are spread over the entire study area, and associated with existing urban areas. Further, visual comparisons and validations indicate that the SD-CA model is a better alternative in explaining the urbanization mechanism of Daqing City. In addition, analysis of results suggests that the stochastic factor in the CA model has significant impact on the modeling accuracy.  相似文献   

13.
2000-2010年东北地区湖泊动态变化及驱动力分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
李宁  刘吉平  王宗明 《湖泊科学》2014,26(4):545-551
以2000、2005和2010年的Landsat TM和ETM遥感影像为主要数据源,利用面向对象的分类方法,提取3期东北地区湖泊数据;在GIS技术的支持下,分析了过去10年东北地区湖泊的时空变化特征,并对导致湖泊面积变化的自然和人文驱动因素进行分析.结果表明:2000-2010年间,东北地区湖泊面积由12234.02 km2减少至11307.58 km2,其中,2005-2010年间湖泊萎缩剧烈程度大于2000-2005年;湖泊数量先增加后减少,10年间共减少了4092个;10年间天然湖泊面积大幅减少,人工湖泊面积略增加;研究区内西北方向湖泊萎缩程度小于东南方向,质心向西北偏移;湖泊变化受自然因素和人类活动的共同影响,人类活动叠加在自然因素之上,对湖泊变化产生了放大作用.  相似文献   

14.
Using meteorological data and RS dynamic land-use observation data set, the potential land productivity that is limited by solar radiation and temperature is estimated and the impacts of recent LUCC processes on it are analyzed in this paper. The results show that the influence of LUCC processes on potential land productivity change has extensive and unbalanced characteristics. It generally reduces the productivity in South China and increases it in North China, and the overall effect is increasing the total productivity by 26.22 million tons. The farmland reclamation and original farmlands losses are the primary causes that led potential land productivity to change. The reclamation mostly distributed in arable-pasture and arable-forest transitional zones and oasises in northwestern China has made total productivity increase by 83.35 million tons, accounting for 3.50% of the overall output. The losses of original farmlands driven by built-up areas invading and occupying arable land are mostly distributed in the regions which have rapid economic development, e.g. Huang-Huai-Hai plain, Yangtze River delta, Zhujiang delta, central part of Gansu, southeast coastal region, southeast of Sichuan Basin and Urumqi-Shihezi. It has led the total productivity to decrease 57.13 million tons, which is 2.40% of the overall output.  相似文献   

15.
Land resources (quantity and quality) and climate condition are two of the most important factors that regulate regional agriculture productivity. Climate and land-use have had great changes in the past decades, and hence are expected to impact crop productivity significantly. Climate change will affect crop produc-tivity through alterations of, for example, light, heat, temperature, precipitation. Land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) directly affects potential land produc-tivity by changin…  相似文献   

16.
Terrestrial transect study on driving mechanism of vegetation changes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
In terms of Chinese climate-vegetation model based on the classification of plant functional types, to- gether with climatic data from 1951 to 1980 and two future climatic scenarios (SRES-A2 and SRES-B2) in China from the highest and the lowest emission scenarios of greenhouse gases, the distribution patterns of vegetation types and their changes along the Northeast China Transect (NECT) and the North-South Transect of Eastern China (NSTEC) were simulated in order to understand the driving mechanisms of vegetation changes under climatic change. The results indicated that the vegetation distribution patterns would change significantly under future climate, and the major factors driving the vegetation changes were water and heat. However, the responses of various vegetation types to the changes in water and heat factors were obviously different. The vegetation changes were more sensi- tive to heat factors than to water factors. Thus, in the future climate warming will significantly affect vegetation distribution patterns.  相似文献   

17.
ABSTRACT

Rural–urban migration is an adaptive response to location-specific environmental or socio-economic stressors. Jiangsu Province, China is witnessing rapid economic growth fuelled by manufacturing and services sector. Rural–urban migration in Jiangsu, which brings higher stress to resource-carrying capacity of urban areas, is driven by rural “push” factors, principally labour surplus and unemployment in agriculture. This study investigates possible policy interventions aimed at relieving the rapid rural–urban migration in Jiangsu based on a sensitivity analysis of driving factors in rural agricultural production. It shows that rural–urban migration is sensitive to input elasticities of precipitation and labour. Two groups of scenario analysis corresponding to possible policy interventions are implemented. The first policy focuses on providing government subsidies to rural non-agricultural industries then compensate for the shrinking agricultural production. Another policy supports education in rural areas to provide more skilled labour resource which can be absorbed by non-agricultural industries. Both two policies are effective in reducing rural unemployment and alleviating rural–urban migration.  相似文献   

18.
长江中下游典型湖泊营养盐历史变化模拟   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  
郭娅  于革 《湖泊科学》2016,28(4):875-886
湖泊营养盐变化在自然条件下受到气候水文因素控制,同时受到湖泊生态系统生物群落作用和反馈.作为动力机制探讨,本文试图基于水文和生态动力学方法,分别构建气候-流域水文作用于湖泊营养盐的外源模式和湖泊生物群落作用于湖泊营养盐的內源模式.针对长江中下游典型湖泊,经过控制实验和率定,发现营养盐模拟与观测数据在时间序列上达到90%百分位的正相关,因此用来模拟1640 1840 A.D.期间的营养盐演变历史.研究表明:(1)模拟的湖泊营养盐变化与沉积钻孔揭示的历史营养盐变化基本一致,沉积记录与模式模拟的7个湖泊的营养盐变化均显著相关;(2)气候因素是湖泊营养盐历史演变的主控因子,来自于湖泊生物群落的反馈作用贡献约占40%;(3)在温度和降水因子的驱动下,湖泊营养盐历史变化主要受降水控制,在极端干旱时期,60%的营养盐变化同步响应于降水变化.同时,面积在400 km2以下的湖泊营养盐对气候变化的响应比2000 km2以上的大湖更为敏感.研究结果对长江中下游湖泊营养状态的长期变化机理认识和趋势控制提供科学依据.  相似文献   

19.
The Heihe River Basin (HRB) is the second largest inland river basin in the arid region of northwestern China. An agricultural oasis is a typical landscape in arid regions providing precious fertile soil, living space and ecological services. The agricultural oasis change has been one of the key issues in sustainable development in recent decades. In this paper, we examined the changes in the agricultural oasis in HRB and analyzed the socio-economic and climatic driving forces behind them. It was found that the agricultural oasis in HRB expanded by 25.11% and 14.82% during the periods of 1986–2000 and 2000–2011, respectively. Most of the newly added agricultural oases in HRB were converted from grassland (40.94%) and unused land (40.22%). The expansion in the agricultural oasis mainly occurred in the middle reaches of HRB, particularly in the counties of Shandan, Minle, Jinta and Jiuquan city. Changes in the rural labor force, annual temperature and precipitation have significant positive effects on agricultural oasis changes, while the ratio of irrigated agricultural oases has significant negative effects on agricultural oasis changes. The agricultural oasis expansion in HRB is the combined effect of human activity and climate change.  相似文献   

20.
Cropland cover change in Northeast China during the past 300 years   总被引：15，自引：0，他引：15  
Land use/cover change induced by human activities has emerged as a “global” phenomenon with Earth system consequences. Northeast China is an area where the largest land cultivation activities by migrants have happened in China during the past 300 years. In this paper, methods including documentary data calibration and multi-sourced data conversion model are used to reconstruct historical cropland cover change in Northeast China during the past 300 years. It is concluded that human beings have remarkably changed the natural landscape of the region by land cultivation in the past 300 years. Cropland area has increased almost exponentially during the past 300 years, especially during the past 100 years when the ratio of cropland cover changed from 10% to 20%. Until the middle of the 19th century, the agricultural area was still mainly restricted in Liaoning Province. From the late 19th century to the early 20th century, dramatic changes took place when the northern boundary of cultivation had extended to the middle of Heilongjiang Province. During the 20th century, three agricultural regions with high ratio of cropland cover were formed after the two phases of spatial expansion of cropland area in 1900s–1930s and 1950s–1980s. Since 1930s–1940s, the expansion of new cultivated area have invaded the forest lands especially in Jilin and Heilongjiang Provinces. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40571165) and Innovation Foundation of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-315)  相似文献   

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