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1.
The concentrations of222Rn and226Ra in the water column and in the sediments of Santa Barbara and San Nicolas Basins have been measured semi-annually over the last four years. Approximately one-third of excess radon profiles obtained in the water column in these basins can be adequately fit with a one-dimensional eddy diffusion-decay model. Exponential profiles in the center of San Nicolas Basin yield a vertical eddy diffusivity of 26±16 cm2/s and 3.4±1.0 cm2/s for Santa Barbara Basin. The application of a two-dimensional eddy diffusion-decay model to profiles obtained in the center and on the margins of San Nicolas Basin produces a better fit than is found using a one-dimensional vertical eddy diffusivity. The two-dimensional model for San Nicolas Basin predicts a vertical eddy diffusivity of 17 cm2/s and a horizontal eddy diffusivity of 105 cm2/s. These values are in reasonable agreement with those predicted from the vertical buoyancy gradient and the horizontal length scale.The vertically integrated radon excess (standing crop) in the water column of Santa Barbara Basin averages 53±23 atoms/m2 s. This is in good agreement with the flux across the sediment-water interface of 60±15 atoms/m2 s, calculated by measuring radon emanation in the sediments as a function of depth and applying a molecular diffusion-reaction model. Hence, one-dimensional molecular diffusion accurately predicts the flux of radon from the laminated Santa Barbara Basin sediments. In San Nicolas Basin the integrated radon excess in the water column is 376±143 atoms/m2 s, but the diffusive randon flux from San Nicolas Basin sediments averages only 190±53 atoms/m2 s. This descrepancy indicates that a non-diffusive process, probably macrofaunal irrigation, supplies much of the flux of radon from San Nicolas Basin sediments.  相似文献   

2.
The occurrence and concentration of the fuel additive methyl-tert-butyl ether (MTBE) were measured in dry weather runoff, municipal wastewater and industrial effluents, and coastal receiving waters in southern California. Combined, refineries and sewage treatment plants release approximately 214 kg day(-1) of MTBE into the marine environment, with Santa Monica Bay receiving most (98%) of this discharge. Dry weather urban runoff was analysed for samples collected from 25 streams and rivers, and accounted for less than 0.5% of the mass of MTBE discharged to coastal waters. Receiving water samples were collected from 23 stations in Santa Monica Bay, Los Angeles Harbour and Mission Bay or San Diego Bay. MTBE was detected at low concentrations near effluent discharges, however there was no evidence of baywide MTBE contamination related to these outfalls. Marinas and areas used intensively for recreational boating had the highest average MTBE concentration (8.8 microg l(-1)). Surface water contamination was most widespread in San Diego Bay and Mission Bay, areas with no refinery or sewage treatment plant inputs.  相似文献   

3.
A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was conducted to establish the hazard spectra for a site located at Dubai Creek on the west coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The PSHA considered all the seismogenic sources that affect the site, including plate boundaries such as the Makran subduction zone, the Zagros fold-thrust region and the transition fault system between them; and local crustal faults in UAE. PSHA indicated that local faults dominate the hazard. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the 475-year return period spectrum is 0.17 g and 0.33 g for the 2,475-year return period spectrum. The hazard spectra are then employed to establish rock ground motions using the spectral matching technique.  相似文献   

4.
In performance-based seismic design, as adopted by several building codes worldwide, the structural performance is verified against ground motions that have predetermined exceedance return periods at the site of interest. Such a return period is evaluated by means of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), and the corresponding ground motion is often represented by the uniform hazard spectrum (UHS). The structural performance for ground motions larger than those considered in this design approach is, typically, not explicitly controlled under the assumption that they are sufficiently rare. On one hand, this does not achieve uniform safety at sites characterized by different design ground motions corresponding to the same return period; on the other hand, exceedances of the design spectra are systematically observed over large areas, for example in Italy. The latter issue is because of the nature of UHS, the exceedance of which is likely-to-almost-certain when the construction site is in the epicentral area of moderate-to-high magnitude earthquakes (ie, the design spectrum may be not conservative at these locations), especially if PSHA is based on seismic source zones. The former is partially because of the systematic difference of ground motions for return periods larger than the design one at the different sites. Quantification of the expected ground motion given the exceedance of the design ground motions (ie, the recently introduced as the expected peak-over-threshold or POT) can be of help in quantitatively assessing these issues. In the study, a procedure to compute the POT distribution is derived first; second, POT spectra are introduced and used to help understanding why and how seismic structural reliability of code-conforming structures decreases as the seismic hazard of the site increases; third, expected and 95th percentile POT maps are shown for Italy to discuss how much high hazard sites are exposed to much larger peak-over-threshold with respect to mid-hazard and low-hazard sites; finally the POT is discussed with respect to the slope of the hazard curve (in log-log scale) at the threshold, a known proxy for ground motion beyond design. All data presented in the maps are made available for the interested reader as a supplemental archive.  相似文献   

5.
The 25th April 2015 M7.6 Gorkha earthquake caused significant damage to buildings and infrastructure in both Kathmandu and surrounding areas as well as triggering numerous, large landslides. This resulted in the loss of approximately 8600 lives. In order to learn how the impact of such events can be reduced on communities both in Nepal and elsewhere, the Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team (EEFIT) reconnaissance mission was undertaken, aiming to look at damage patterns within the country. Passive, microtremor recordings in severely damaged areas of the Kathmandu Valley, as well as at the main seismic recording station in Kathmandu (USGS station KATNP) are used to determined preliminary shear wave velocity (Vs) profiles for each site. These profiles are converted into spectral acceleration using the input motion of the Gorkha earthquake. The results are limited, but show clear site amplification within the Siddhitol Region. The resulting ground motions exceed the design levels from the Nepalese Building Codes, indicating the need for site-specific hazard analysis and for revision of the building code to address the effect of site amplification.  相似文献   

6.
In this paper the effect of causal parameter bounds (e.g. magnitude, source‐to‐site distance, and site condition) on ground motion selection, based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) results, is investigated. Despite the prevalent application of causal parameter bounds in ground motion selection, present literature on the topic is cast in the context of a scenario earthquake of interest, and thus specific bounds for use in ground motion selection based on PSHA, and the implications of such bounds, is yet to be examined. Thirty‐six PSHA cases, which cover a wide range of causal rupture deaggregation distributions and site conditions, are considered to empirically investigate the effects of various causal parameter bounds on the characteristics of selected ground motions based on the generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) approach. It is demonstrated that the application of relatively ‘wide’ bounds on causal parameters effectively removes ground motions with drastically different characteristics with respect to the target seismic hazard and results in an improved representation of the target causal parameters. In contrast, the use of excessively ‘narrow’ bounds can lead to ground motion ensembles with a poor representation of the target intensity measure distributions, typically as a result of an insufficient number of prospective ground motions. Quantitative criteria for specifying bounds for general PSHA cases are provided, which are expected to be sufficient in the majority of problems encountered in ground motion selection for seismic demand analyses. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
This paper presents a proposed method of aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (APSHA) similar to conventional ‘mainshock’ PSHA in that it estimates the likelihoods of ground motion intensity (in terms of peak ground accelerations, spectral accelerations or other ground motion intensity measures) due to aftershocks following a mainshock occurrence. This proposed methodology differs from the conventional mainshock PSHA in that mainshock occurrence rates remain constant for a conventional (homogeneous Poisson) earthquake occurrence model, whereas aftershock occurrence rates decrease with increased elapsed time from the initial occurrence of the mainshock. In addition, the aftershock ground motion hazard at a site depends on the magnitude and location of the causative mainshock, and the location of aftershocks is limited to an aftershock zone, which is also dependent on the location and magnitude of the initial mainshock. APSHA is useful for post‐earthquake safety evaluation where there is a need to quantify the rates of occurrence of ground motions caused by aftershocks following the initial rupture. This knowledge will permit, for example, more informed decisions to be made for building tagging and entry of damaged buildings for rescue, repair or normal occupancy. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: Early history   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the evaluation of annual frequencies of exceedence of ground motion levels (typically designated by peak ground acceleration or by spectral accelerations) at a site. The result of a PSHA is a seismic hazard curve (annual frequency of exceedence vs ground motion amplitude) or a uniform hazard spectrum (spectral amplitude vs structural period, for a fixed annual frequency of exceedence). Analyses of this type were first conceived in the 1960s and have become the basis for the seismic design of engineered facilities ranging from common buildings designed according to building codes to critical facilities such as nuclear power plants. This Historical Note traces the early history of PSHA. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
本文将确定性数值模拟方法与地震动预测方程相结合,提出了一种重大水电工程场址设定地震的地震动时程生成方法。该方法基于场址设定地震,首先采用地震动预测方程确定场址的场地相关反应谱;其次建立包含震源和场址的场地模型,通过确定性数值模拟方法生成场址地震动时程;最后对生成的场址地震动时程进行调整,使其反应谱与设计谱相一致,用于工程抗震分析。这一方法生成的地震动时程既考虑了震源机制、传播路径以及局部场地效应等物理背景,又与场地相关的设计地震反应谱保持一致,为重大工程抗震分析与评价提供了一种新的思路。  相似文献   

10.
Seismic noise was measured at some 20 sites in the Cologne area (Germany) aligned nearly perpendicular to a graben structure. The H/V spectral noise ratio for each site was used to derive realistic S-wave velocity profiles down to the bedrock by means of a genetic algorithm inversion. Numerical simulations were performed for different combinations of source and propagation path parameters: focal depth, epicentral distance, attenuation and fault mechanism. Synthetic seismograms were produced and converted to Fourier and response spectra. Finally, the site-specific values from response spectral ratios, with their uncertainties, were used to modify attenuation functions entering the logic-tree algorithm of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). The site-specific response spectra show the significance of taking into account the local S-wave velocity structure in PSHA.  相似文献   

11.
张宝一  龚平  王丽芳 《地震研究》2006,29(2):209-213
介绍了地理信息系统的主要特征、概率性地震危险性分析的一般步骤及其在MapGIS软件上的实现方法。并以三峡坝区某工程场地为例对程序进行了测试。GIS的用户界面使用户易于掌握概率性地震危险性分析的流程和数据。更重要的是它提高了用户对复杂地震危险性分析过程的认知能力，可以帮助用户在地震危险性分析中从空间数据中挖掘更多的信息。  相似文献   

12.
Recent studies on assessment of a very low annual probability of exceeding (APE) ground motions, 10-4 or less, have highlighted the importance of the upper bound of ground motions when very low probability results are acquired. The truncation level adopted in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) should be determined by an aleatory uncertainty model (i.e., distribution model) of ground motions and the possible maximum and minimum ground motion values of a specific earthquake. However, at the present ...  相似文献   

13.
The model presented in the companion paper is validated in both the linear and nonlinear cases under steady-state single frequency harmonic and transient ground motions. The crest acceleration responses of the Santa Felicia earth dam subjected to the 1971 San Fernando earthquake and of the Long Valley earth dam subjected to the strongest of the 1980 Mammoth Lake earthquakes are computed and compared with the motions recorded at the site. Acceleration time histories for the solid and fluid phases in both horizontal and vertical directions, as well as stress-strain and pore water pressure-strain time histories for points along the height of the dam are presented. The ability of the model to simulate the occurrence of liquefaction in a dam is also demonstrated.  相似文献   

14.
Traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) uses ground-motion models that are based on the ergodic assumption, which means that the distribution of ground motions over time at a given site is the same as their spatial distribution over different sites. Evaluations of ground-motion data sets with multiple measurements at a given site and multiple earthquakes in a given region have shown that the ergodic assumption is not appropriate as there are strong systematic region-specific source terms and site-specific path and site terms that are spatially correlated. We model these correlations using a spatial Gaussian process model. Different correlations functions are employed, both stationary and non-stationary, and the results are compared in terms of their predictive power. Spatial correlations of residuals are investigated on a Taiwanese strong-motion data set, and ground motions are collected at the ANZA, CA array. Source effects are spatially correlated, but provide a much stronger benefit in terms of prediction for the ANZA data set than for the Taiwanese data set. We find that systematic path effects are best modeled by a non-stationary covariance function that is dependent on source-to-site distance and magnitude. The correlation structure estimated from Californian data can be transferred to Taiwan if one carefully accounts for differences in magnitudes. About 50% of aleatory variance can be explained by accounting for spatial correlation.  相似文献   

15.
This paper investigates issues related to the number of ground-motion records required for the performance of site response analysis and the inclusion of the site-specific amplification function within probabilistic seismic hazard calculations (PSHA). It explores the minimum number of records required for a robust estimation of the median and standard deviation of the site amplification function, as well as the impact of the selected ground-motion suites on the results of PSHA. Site response analyses are performed using both equivalent linear and nonlinear methodologies. Although the median amplification was observed to be relatively easy to capture, the standard deviation was seen to fluctuate considerably, especially when suites of few records were used. It was observed that in the case of the nonlinear site response analysis 10 records provide relatively stable estimates of the hazard curves for the majority of periods, while in the case of the equivalent linear analysis 20 records or more are required to achieve a similar level of accuracy.  相似文献   

16.
The spatial relationship between areas with severely damaged (red-tagged) buildings and areas with large strains in the soil (indicated by reported breaks in the water distribution system), observed during the 1994 Northridge earthquake, is analysed. It is shown that these areas can be separated almost everywhere. Minimal overlapping is observed only in the regions with very large amplitudes of shaking (peak ground velocity exceeding about 150 cm s−1). One explanation for this remarkable separation is that the buildings on ‘soft’ soils, which experienced nonlinear strain levels, were damaged to a lesser degree, possibly because the soil absorbed a significant portion of the incident seismic wave energy. As a result, the total number of severely damaged (red-tagged) buildings in San Fernando Valley, Los Angeles and Santa Monica may have been reduced by a factor of two or more. This interpretation is consistent with the recorded peak accelerations of strong motion in the same area. It is concluded that significant reduction in the potential damage to wood frame single family dwellings may be expected in areas where the soil experiences ‘large’ strains (beyond the linear range) during strong earthquake shaking, but not significant differential motions, settlement or lateral spreading, near the surface.  相似文献   

17.
The deployment of particle interceptor traps (PITs) in the three inner basins of the Southern California Bight (Santa Barbara, Santa Monica, and San Pedro) where preserved, laminated, bottom sediments occur, provides a natural calibration between the parameters determined with the PITs and those derived from the historical sedimentary deposits. The accumulation rates and chemical composition of the PIT materials compare favorably with these recently deposited bottom sediments. The ratio of the measured particle collection rate to the sediment accumulation rate for these three basins averaged0.93±0.20. Radionuclide (210Pb,228Th/232Th) and trace element (Fe, Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb) compositions of the PIT materials and surface sediments agree within, generally, 30% in each basin.An application of PITs as a sampling system in an outer basin (San Nicolas) where the sedimentary record has been obscured by bioturbation is also presented to further demonstrate the utility of PITs for spatial and temporal studies of various aspects of particle transport and sediment deposition. Based on the calibration of the PITs in the three inner basins we conclude from the comparison of the radionuclide and trace element compositions between the PIT materials and surface sediments from the San Nicolas Basin that recently deposited sedimentary material has been mixed by bioturbation with older material from the last several hundred years. Excess210Pb and the228Th/232Th activity ratio in the PIT material are 6 and 15 times higher than in the surface sediment. Total Pb and1N HNO3-leachable Pb are 4- and 8-fold higher in the PIT material.  相似文献   

18.
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) generally relies on the basic assumption that ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) developed for other similar tectonic regions can be adopted in the considered area. This implies that observed ground motion and its variability at considered sites could be modelled by the selected GMPEs. Until now ground-motion variability has been taken into account in PSHA by integrating over the standard deviation reported in GMPEs, which significantly affects estimated ground motions, especially at very low probabilities of exceedance. To provide insight on this issue, ground-motion variability in the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ), where many ground-motion records are available, is assessed. Three statistical methods are applied to separate the aleatory variability into source (inter-event), site (inter-site) and residual (intra-event and intra-site) components. Furthermore, the current PSHA procedure that makes the ergodic assumption of equality between spatially and temporal variability is examined. In contrast to the ergodic assumption, several recent studies show that the observed ground-motion variability at an individual location is lower than that implied by the standard deviation of a GMPE. This could imply a mishandling of aleatory uncertainty in PSHA by ignoring spatial variability and by mixing aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the computation of sigma. Station correction coefficients are introduced in order to capture site effects at different stations. The introduction of the non-ergodic assumption in PSHA leads to larger epistemic uncertainty, although this is not the same as traditional epistemic uncertainty modelled using different GMPEs. The epistemic uncertainty due to the site correction coefficients (i.e. mean residuals) could be better constrained for future events if more information regarding the characteristics of these seismic sources and path dependence could be obtained.  相似文献   

19.
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20.
Potential sources are simplified as point sources or linear sources in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods. Focus size of large earthquakes is considerable, and fault rupture attitudes may have great influ-ence upon the seismic hazard of a site which is near the source. Under this circumstance, it is unreasonable to use the simplified potential source models in the PSHA, so a potential rupture surface model is proposed in this paper. Adopting this model, we analyze the seismic hazard near the Chelungpu fault that generated the Chi-Chi (Jiji) earthquake with magnitude 7.6 and the following conclusions are reached. 1 This model is reasonable on the base of focal mechanism, especially for sites near potential earthquakes with large magnitude; 2 The attitudes of poten-tial rupture surfaces have great influence on the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and seismic zoning.  相似文献   

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