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1.
Brendon A. Bradley 《地震工程与结构动力学》2013,42(15):2235-2253
This paper compares the seismic demands obtained from an intensity‐based assessment, as conventionally considered in seismic design guidelines, with the seismic demand hazard. Intensity‐based assessments utilize the distribution of seismic demand from ground motions that have a specific value of some conditioning intensity measure, and the mean of this distribution is conventionally used in design verification. The seismic demand hazard provides the rate of exceedance of various seismic demand values and is obtained by integrating the distribution of seismic demand at multiple intensity levels with the seismic hazard curve. The seismic demand hazard is a more robust metric for quantifying seismic performance, because seismic demands from an intensity‐based assessment: (i) are not unique, with different values obtained using different conditioning intensity measures; and (ii) do not consider the possibility that demand values could be exceeded from different intensity ground motions. Empirical results, for a bridge‐foundation‐soil system, illustrate that the mean seismic demand from an intensity‐based assessment almost always underestimates the demand hazard value for the exceedance rate considered, on average by 17% and with a large variability. Furthermore, modification factors based on approximate theory are found to be unreliable. Adopting the maximum of the mean values from multiple intensity‐based assessments, with different conditional intensity measures, provides a less biased prediction of the seismic demand hazard value, but with still a large variability, and a proportional increase the required number of analyses. For an equivalent number of analyses, direct computation of the seismic demand hazard is a more logical choice and provides additional performance insight. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
2.
In the Upper Silesian Coal Field the seismic hazard induced by mining operations in collieries is closely related to the rockburst hazard. A seismic method is used for premonitory recognition of the zones of seismic hazard. It takes advantage of the relationship between the velocity of propagation of seismic waves and the state of stress existing in the rock. It consists of the determination of the velocity field of artificially induced seismic waves in a studied fragment of the rock, and of locating the velocity anomaly. The position of the velocity anomaly zones and their intensity are the basis for estimating the seismic hazard in advance of mining works. 相似文献
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地震滑坡会对自然环境和人民生活带来极大破坏,在大区域范围内对边坡遭受地震影响的程度进行评价判断,主要采用具有预测性质的潜在地震诱发滑坡危险性评估的方法。因此,深入研究边坡地震危险性分析的基本理论并作出符合实际的危险性分布图对工程建设和灾害防治具有较大意义。梳理并阐述具有预测性质的边坡地震危险性分析所需数据资料及各类数据的研究进展,将利用永久位移法进行边坡地震危险性评价所需数据归纳为三种：(1)边坡在地震影响下破坏程度的判定依据;(2)区域地震动参数如峰值加速度、阿里亚斯强度;(3)边坡坡体基本参数如黏聚力、摩擦角、重度、滑块厚度、坡角等。边坡地震危险性评价的准确程度与这三类数据的研究程度与准确性有关。文章对三类数据分别详细阐述各自的研究现状与成果应用,最后分析理论存在的部分问题以及以后的研究方向。 相似文献
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Spatial sensitivity of seismic hazard results to different models with respect to background seismic activity and earthquake occurrence in time is investigated. For the contribution of background seismic activity to seismic hazard, background area source with uniform seismicity and spatially smoothed seismicity models are taken into consideration. For the contribution of faults, through characteristic earthquakes, both the memoryless Poisson and the time dependent renewal models are utilized. A case study, involving the assessment of seismic hazard for the Bursa province in Turkey, is conducted in order to examine quantitatively the influence of these models on seismic hazard results. The spatial variation of the difference in Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values obtained from these different models is presented in the form of difference maps for return periods of 475 and 2475 years. Best estimate seismic hazard maps for PGA and Spectral Accelerations (SA) at 0.2 and 1.0 s are obtained by using the logic tree method. 相似文献
6.
Modern earthquake loss models make use of earthquake catalogs relevant to the seismic hazard assessment upon seismicity and seismotectonic analysis. The main objective of this paper is to investigate a recently compiled catalog (National Institute of Meteorology or INM catalog: 412-2011) and to generate seismic hazard maps through classical probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and smoothed-gridded seismicity models for Tunisia. It is now established with the local earthquake bulletin that the recent seismicity of Tunisia is sparse and moderate. Therefore, efforts must be undertaken to elaborate a robust hazard analysis for risk assessment and seismic design purposes. These recommendations follow the recently published reports by the World Bank that describe the seismic risk in Tunis City as being beyond a tolerable level with an MSK intensity level of VII. Some attempts were made during the past two decades to assess the seismic hazard for Tunisia and they have mostly failed to properly investigate the historical and instrumental seismicity catalog. This limitation also exists for the key aspect of epistemic and random uncertainties impact on the final seismic hazard assessment. This study also investigates new ground motion prediction equations suitable for use in Tunisia. The methodology applied herein uses, for the first time in PSHA of Tunisia, seismicity parameters integrated in logic tree framework to capture epistemic uncertainties through three different seismic source models. It also makes use of the recently released version of OpenQuake engine; an open-source tool for seismic hazard and risk assessment developed in the framework of the Global Earthquake Model. 相似文献
7.
Over the last two decades, the probabilistic assessment of reinforced concrete (RC) structures under seismic hazard has been developed rapidly. However, little attention has been devoted to the assessment of the seismic reliability of corroded structures. For the life‐cycle assessment of RC structures in a marine environment and earthquake‐prone regions, the effect of corrosion due to airborne chlorides on the seismic capacity needs to be taken into consideration. Also, the effect of the type of corrosive environment on the seismic capacity of RC structures has to be quantified. In this paper, the evaluation of the displacement ductility capacity based on the buckling model of longitudinal rebars in corroded RC bridge piers is established, and a novel computational procedure to integrate the probabilistic hazard associated with airborne chlorides into life‐cycle seismic reliability assessment of these piers is proposed. The seismic demand depends on the results of seismic hazard assessment, whereas the deterioration of seismic capacity depends on the hazard associated with airborne chlorides. In an illustrative example, an RC bridge pier was modeled as single degree of freedom (SDOF). The longitudinal rebars buckling of this pier was considered as the sole limit state when estimating its failure probability. The findings show that the life‐cycle reliability of RC bridge piers depends on both the seismic and airborne chloride hazards, and that the cumulative‐time failure probabilities of RC bridge piers located in seismic zones can be dramatically affected by the effect of airborne chlorides. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
The paper discusses problems of seismic zoning of the Kaliningrad region, where a series of perceptible earthquakes occurred in 2004; the strongest event had a magnitude of M s = 4.3 and produced shakings of an intensity of 6 in the coastal zone of the Sambiiskii Peninsula, classified as a 5-intensity zone. The enhanced seismic effect is shown to be caused by bad ground conditions, long-term action of seismic effects, resonance phenomena, and other factors. To gain additional constraints on the seismic hazard degree in the Kaliningrad region, the paper discusses an improved version of the model of earthquake sources underlying the compilation of normative maps of seismic zoning (OSR-97). Modified fragments of OSR-97 probability maps of the Kaliningrad region are constructed at different levels of probability that the seismic effect indicated in the maps will be exceeded over 50 yr. It is shown that additional seismological investigations should be conducted in this region. 相似文献
9.
This paper presents the results of a study undertaken todetermine the seismic hazard of Lebanon. The seismic hazard evaluation wasconducted using probabilistic methods of hazard analysis. Potential sourcesof seismic activities that affect Lebanon were identified and the earthquakerecurrence relationships of these sources were developed from instrumentalseismology data, historical records, and earlier studies undertaken toevaluate the seismic hazard of neighboring countries. The sensitivityof the results to different assumptions regarding the seismic sources in theLebanese segment and choice of the attenuation relationship wasevaluated. Maps of peak ground acceleration contours, based on 10percent of probability of exceedance in 50 years and 100 years time spans,were developed. 相似文献
10.
R. Secanell D. Bertil C. Martin X. Goula T. Susagna M. Tapia P. Dominique D. Carbon J. Fleta 《Journal of Seismology》2008,12(3):323-341
A unified probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the Pyrenean region has been performed by an international team
composed of experts from Spain and France during the Interreg IIIA ISARD project. It is motivated by incoherencies between
the seismic hazard zonations of the design codes of France and Spain and by the need for input data to be used to define earthquake
scenarios. A great effort was invested in the homogenisation of the input data. All existing seismic data are collected in
a database and lead to a unified catalogue using a local magnitude scale. PSHA has been performed using logic trees combined
with Monte Carlo simulations to account for both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. As an alternative to hazard calculation
based on seismic sources zone models, a zoneless method is also used to produce a hazard map less dependant on zone boundaries.
Two seismogenic source models were defined to take into account the different interpretations existing among specialists.
A new regional ground-motion prediction equation based on regional data has been proposed. It was used in combination with
published ground-motion prediction equations derived using European and Mediterranean data. The application of this methodology
leads to the definition of seismic hazard maps for 475- and 1,975-year return periods for spectral accelerations at periods
of 0 (corresponding to peak ground acceleration), 0.1, 0.3, 0.6, 1 and 2 s. Median and percentiles 15% and 85% acceleration
contour lines are represented. Finally, the seismic catalogue is used to produce a map of the maximum acceleration expected
for comparison with the probabilistic hazard maps. The hazard maps are produced using a grid of 0.1°. The results obtained
may be useful for civil protection and risk prevention purposes in France, Spain and Andorra. 相似文献
11.
A risk-targeted design spectral acceleration and the corresponding seismic design action for the force-based design of structures is introduced by means of two formulations. The first one called direct formulation utilizes the seismic hazard function at the site of the structure. Because the seismic action defined in the codes is often associated with a designated return period, an indirect formulation is also introduced. It incorporates a risk-targeted safety factor that can be used to define a risk-targeted reduction factor. It is shown that the proposed formulations give analogical results and provide an insight into the concept of the reduction of seismic forces for the force-based seismic design of structures if the objective is defined by a target collapse risk. The introduced closed-form solution for the risk-targeted reduction factor can be used to investigate how the target collapse risk, the seismic hazard parameters, the randomness of the seismic action, and the conventional parameters (ie, the overstrength factor and the deformation and energy dissipation capacity) affect the seismic design forces in the case of force-based design. However, collaborative research is needed in order to develop appropriate models of these parameters. In the second part of the paper, the proposed formulations are demonstrated by estimating the risk-targeted seismic design action for a six-storey reinforced concrete building. By verifying the collapse risk of the designed structure, it is demonstrated that the risk-targeted seismic action, in conjunction with a conventional force-based design, provided structure with acceptable performance when measured in terms of collapse risk. 相似文献
12.
Shaimaa Ismail Mostafa Abd el-aziz Khairy Abd el-aal Mohamed Ahmed El-Eraki 《Journal of Seismology》2018,22(3):669-696
Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes. 相似文献
13.
S. Akkar T. Azak T. Çan U. Çeken M. B. Demircioğlu Tümsa T. Y. Duman M. Erdik S. Ergintav F. T. Kadirioğlu D. Kalafat Ö. Kale R. F. Kartal K. Kekovalı T. Kılıç S. Özalp S. Altuncu Poyraz K. Şeşetyan S. Tekin A. Yakut M. T. Yılmaz M. S. Yücemen Ö. Zülfikar 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(8):3197-3228
A review on the historical evolution of seismic hazard maps in Turkey is followed by summarizing the important aspects of the updated national probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Comparisons with the predecessor probabilistic seismic hazard maps as well as the implications on the national design codes conclude the paper. 相似文献
14.
Brendon A. Bradley Rajesh P. Dhakal Misko Cubrinovski John B. Mander Greg A. MacRae 《地震工程与结构动力学》2007,36(14):2211-2225
An improved seismic hazard model for use in performance‐based earthquake engineering is presented. The model is an improved approximation from the so‐called ‘power law’ model, which is linear in log–log space. The mathematics of the model and uncertainty incorporation is briefly discussed. Various means of fitting the approximation to hazard data derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are discussed, including the limitations of the model. Based on these ‘exact’ hazard data for major centres in New Zealand, the parameters for the proposed model are calibrated. To illustrate the significance of the proposed model, a performance‐based assessment is conducted on a typical bridge, via probabilistic seismic demand analysis. The new hazard model is compared to the current power law relationship to illustrate its effects on the risk assessment. The propagation of epistemic uncertainty in the seismic hazard is also considered. To allow further use of the model in conceptual calculations, a semi‐analytical method is proposed to calculate the demand hazard in closed form. For the case study shown, the resulting semi‐analytical closed form solution is shown to be significantly more accurate than the analytical closed‐form solution using the power law hazard model, capturing the ‘exact’ numerical integration solution to within 7% accuracy over the entire range of exceedance rate. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
Empirical correlations between response spectra, magnitude, distance from the source and geological site conditions are introduced in a regional study of seismic hazard. A 350-year earthquake catalogue is treated by means of the statistics of extremes and both the spectral amplitudes (pseudovelocity) corresponding to a series of frequency bands are separately mapped, and the complete predicted response spectra calculated at some sites. Three kinds of geological site conditions are considered: thick and thin (less than 20 m deep) alluvium, and rock. A particular dependence of the results on the geographical distribution of earthquakes and on their magnitudes is commented. The seismic hazard of the study area is also computed by applying a traditional regression between peak ground velocity, magnitude and distance; a comparison with the seismic hazard given by the frequency dependent psuedovelocity indicates the extent of the uncertainty associated with the common practice of scaling response spectra directly from ground motion parameters. 相似文献
16.
Georgios N. Stavrakakis 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1988,127(1):21-31
Seismic hazard analysis requires the estimation of the probabilities that earthquakes will take place within a region of interest, and the expected level of ground motion which will be received at a site during the nextt years. The earthquake magnitude has been used as a basic parameter, because it is available, under the assumption that the earthquake occurrence is a compound Poisson process with exponential or multinomial distribution of magnitude.For improving the hazard prediction, we used the seismic moment as a basic parameter to estimate the mean rate, , of occurrence of earthquakes in a function of seismic moment rate and slip rate released in a seismogenic region.As an illustration of the model, the seismic hazard analysis at different sites in and around the Gulf of Corinth, central Greece, is presented on the basis of the earthquake magnitude and the seismic moment. Comparison of the results shows that determination of the mean rate of earthquake occurrence, using the conventional Gutenberg-Richter recurrence model, underestimates the seismic hazard at a site. 相似文献
17.
Ramon Secanell Christophe Martin Emmanuel Viallet Gloria Senfaute 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(6):2513-2527
This paper presents a Bayesian methodology for updating the seismic hazard curves. The methodology is based on the comparison of predictive exceedance rates of a fixed acceleration level (given by the seismic hazard curves) and the observed exceedance rates in some selected sites. The application of the methodology needs, firstly, the definition of a prior probabilistic seismic hazard assessment based in a logic tree. Each main branch corresponds to a probabilistic model of calculus of seismic hazard. The method considers that, initially (or a priori), the weights of all branches of the logic tree are equivalent. Secondly, the method needs to compile the observations in the region. They are introduced in a database containing the recorded acceleration data (during the instrumental period). Nevertheless, the instrumental period in stable zones (as France) shows only very low acceleration levels recorded during a short observation period. Then, a method to enlarge the REX (number of observations) is presented taking into account the historical data and defining “synthetic” accelerations in the sites of observation. The synthetic REX allows to expand the period of observation and to increase the acceleration thresholds used in the Bayesian updating process. The application of the Bayesian approach leads to a new and more objective definition of the weights of each branch of the logic tree and, therefore, to new seismic hazard curves (mean and centiles). The Bayesian approach doesn’t change the probabilistic models (seismic hazard curves). It only modifies the weights of each branch of the logic tree. 相似文献
18.
This research focuses on the evaluation of soil conditions for seismic stations in southern and eastern Romania, their influence on stochastic finite-fault simulations, and the impact of using them on the seismic hazard assessment. First, the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (HVSR) are evaluated using ground motions recorded in 32 seismic stations during small magnitude (M W ≤ 6.0) Vrancea seismic events. Most of the seismic stations situated in the southern part of Romania exhibit multiple HVSR peaks over a broad period range. However, only the seismic stations in the eastern-most part of Romania have clear short-period predominant periods. Subsequently, stochastic finite-fault simulations are performed in order to evaluate the influence of the soil conditions on the ground motion amplitudes. The analyses show that the earthquake magnitude has a larger influence on the computed ground motion amplitudes for the short- and medium-period range, while the longer-period spectral ordinates tend to be influenced more by the soil conditions. Next, the impact of the previously evaluated soil conditions on the seismic hazard results for Romania is also investigated. The results reveal a significant impact of the soil conditions on the seismic hazard levels, especially for the sites characterized by long-period amplifications (sites situated mostly in southern Romania), and a less significant influence in the case of sites which have clear short predominant periods. 相似文献
19.
Historical seismic data and seismogenic information are quite scarce for the low seismicity region, and modeling the parameters uncertainties based on probabilistic model is suspicious. The convex set theory-based seismic hazard analysis approach is proposed. The uncertainties of b value, the annual occurrence rate v and the upper bound magnitude Mu are described by the envelop bound convex model and the ellipsoidal bound convex model. Convex analysis method and China probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methodology are combined to perform a bound seismic hazard analysis for Ningbo city, China. The seismic intensity interval obtained using the bound seismic hazard analysis is compared with that calculated using China probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methodology. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the interval of seismic intensity is most sensitive to the annual occurrence rate v. Furthermore, the different convex models have little effect on the interval of seismic intensity. 相似文献