共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Major transformation of the global energy system is required for climate change mitigation. However, energy demand patterns and supply systems are themselves subject to climate change impacts. These impacts will variously help and hinder mitigation and adaptation efforts, so it is vital they are well understood and incorporated into models used to study energy system decarbonisation pathways. To assess the current state of understanding of this topic and identify research priorities, this paper critically reviews the literature on the impacts of climate change on the energy supply system, summarising the regional coverage of studies, trends in their results and sources of disagreement. We then examine the ways in which these impacts have been represented in integrated assessment models of the electricity or energy system.Studies tend to agree broadly on impacts for wind, solar and thermal power stations. Projections for impacts on hydropower and bioenergy resources are more varied. Key uncertainties and gaps remain due to the variation between climate projections, modelling limitations and the regional bias of research interests. Priorities for future research include the following: further regional impact studies for developing countries; studies examining impacts of the changing variability of renewable resources, extreme weather events and combined hazards; inclusion of multiple climate feedback mechanisms in IAMs, accounting for adaptation options and climate model uncertainty. 相似文献
2.
Adaptation is already a necessary response to climate change for northern communities. The City of Prince George, in British Columbia, Canada, has been adjusting to impacts for years and there is a high level of local awareness of climate change. The purpose of this study was to collaborate with City staff and other organizations to undertake action-oriented research with the goal of creating a local adaptation strategy. Steps taken toward this goal included: producing downscaled climate scenarios; facilitating a workshop with local practitioners to prioritize impacts; gathering public feedback regarding impacts; and triangulating sources of information to determine community adaptation priorities. Changes to forests and increased flooding are the top local adaptation priorities, and impacts related to transportation, severe weather and water supply are high priorities. Other impacts, such as health effects and agricultural changes, are also important but did not rank highly using a risk framework focused on negative physical effects. Local impacts, actions the City is undertaking to address them and suggestions for implementing adaptation measures are summarized. The process of creating an adaptation strategy has proven highly valuable in Prince George and has precipitated further engagement and action. Due to the low profile of adaptation and limited resources in many communities, researchers and practitioners must capitalize on opportunities to incorporate adaptation into existing plans and processes. Lessons from the Prince George experience can be applied to other communities as they strive to effectively adapt to climate change. 相似文献
3.
Emil Erjavec Tina Volk Miroslav Rednak Barbara Zagorc Ben Moljk 《Climate Policy》2013,13(8):1014-1030
This article analyses the interactions between agricultural policy measures in the EU and the factors affecting GHG emissions from agriculture on the one hand, and the adaptation of agriculture to climate change on the other. To this end, the article uses Slovenia as a case study, assessing the extent to which Slovenian agricultural policy is responding to the challenges of climate change. All agricultural policy measures related to the 2007–2013 programming period were analysed according to a new methodological approach that is based on a qualitative (expert evaluation) and a quantitative (budgetary transfers validation) assessment. A panel of experts reached consensus on the key factors through which individual measures affect climate change, in which direction and how significantly. Data on budgetary funds for each measure were used as weights to assess their relative importance. The results show that there are not many measures in (Slovenian) agricultural policy that are directly aimed at reducing GHG emissions from agriculture or at adaptation to climate change. Nevertheless, most affect climate change, and their impact is far from negligible. Current measures have both positive and negative impacts, but overall the positive impacts prevail. Measures that involve many beneficiaries and more budgetary funds had the strongest impact on aggregate assessments. In light of climate change, agricultural policy should pay more attention to measures that are aimed at raising the efficiency of animal production, as it is the principal source of GHG emissions from agriculture.Policy relevanceAgricultural policy must respond to climate challenges and climate change impact assessment must be included in the process of forming European agricultural policy. Agricultural policy measures that contribute to the reduction of emissions and adaptation, whilst acting in synergy with other environmental, economic and social goals, should be promoted. The approach used in this study combines qualitative and quantitative data, yielding an objective assessment of the climate impact of agricultural policy measures and providing policy makers with a tool for either ex ante or ex post evaluations of climate-relevant policy measures. 相似文献
4.
This paper describes an assessment of the ways in which water supply companies in England and Wales are adapting to climate change, evaluated in the context of a model of the adaptation process. The four components of the model are (i) awareness of and concern about the potential impacts of climate change, (ii) adaptation strategy, (iii) the concept of an adaptation space from which options are selected, and (iv) the notion that three groups of factors influence awareness, strategy and option selection: susceptibility to change, internal characteristics of the organisation, and regulatory and market context.Public water supply in England and Wales is provided by private sector companies, subject to environmental and economic regulation. Hydrological simulations suggest that climate change has the potential to reduce the reliability of supply sources over the next few decades. The industry in December 2004 completed a review of investment requirements over the next five years.Awareness of climate change is high in the water industry, but by developing assessment procedures and incorporating them into the investment review the regulators forced companies to consider explicitly the potential impacts of climate change in a consistent and rigorous manner. These analyses combined climate change with other pressures on water resources, and in practice companies did not attribute specific investment decisions or proposals to climate change or indeed any other individual drivers. The broad strategy adopted by all water supply companies – to maintain standards of service – is determined by regulatory controls and market considerations, but the degree of concern about the impacts of climate change and precise adaptation options necessary to address supply-demand imbalances varied between water supply companies, reflecting local geographic conditions. The water supply companies and regulators have different perspectives on the relative merits of supply-side and demand-side measures, reflecting different organisational priorities.The 2004 investment review determined that no specific actions were necessary to deal with future climate change, but that measures set in place – in terms of methodologies and investment in investigations into specific resource developments – provided a sound foundation for more specific actions in the next investment review in five years time. The paper concludes by summarising the factors assisting and constraining adaptation over the next few decades. 相似文献
5.
《Global Environmental Change》2007,17(1):59-72
Projections of future climate change are plagued with uncertainties, causing difficulties for planners taking decisions on adaptation measures. This paper presents an assessment framework that allows the identification of adaptation strategies that are robust (i.e. insensitive) to climate change uncertainties. The framework is applied to a case study of water resources management in the East of England, more specifically to the Anglian Water Services’ 25 year Water Resource Plan (WRP). The paper presents a local sensitivity analysis (a ‘one-at-a-time’ experiment) of the various elements of the modelling framework (e.g., emissions of greenhouse gases, climate sensitivity and global climate models) in order to determine whether or not a decision to adapt to climate change is sensitive to uncertainty in those elements.Water resources are found to be sensitive to uncertainties in regional climate response (from general circulation models and dynamical downscaling), in climate sensitivity and in climate impacts. Aerosol forcing and greenhouse gas emissions uncertainties are also important, whereas uncertainties from ocean mixing and the carbon cycle are not. Despite these large uncertainties, Anglian Water Services’ WRP remains robust to the climate change uncertainties sampled because of the adaptation options being considered (e.g. extension of water treatment works), because the climate model used for their planning (HadCM3) predicts drier conditions than other models, and because ‘one-at-a-time’ experiments do not sample the combination of different extremes in the uncertainty range of parameters. This research raises the question of how much certainty is required in climate change projections to justify investment in adaptation measures, and whether such certainty can be delivered. 相似文献
6.
Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new evidence presented from empirical research into adaptation in nine case-study companies. It argues that adaptation to climate change has many similarities with processes of organisational learning. The paper suggests that business organisations face a number of obstacles in learning how to adapt to climate change impacts, especially in relation to the weakness and ambiguity of signals about climate change and the uncertainty about benefits flowing from adaptation measures. Organisations rarely adapt ‘autonomously’, since their adaptive behaviour is influenced by policy and market conditions, and draws on resources external to the organisation. The paper identifies four adaptation strategies that pattern organisational adaptive behaviour. 相似文献
7.
Impact of climate change on Pacific Northwest hydropower 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The Pacific Northwest (PNW) hydropower resource, central to the region’s electricity supply, is vulnerable to the impacts
of climate change. The Northwest Power and Conservation Council (NWPCC), an interstate compact agency, has conducted long
term planning for the PNW electricity supply for its 2005 Power Plan. In formulating its power portfolio recommendation, the
NWPCC explored uncertainty in variables that affect the availability and cost of electricity over the next 20 years. The NWPCC
conducted an initial assessment of potential impacts of climate change on the hydropower system, but these results are not
incorporated in the risk model upon which the 2005 Plan recommendations are based. To assist in bringing climate information
into the planning process, we present an assessment of uncertainty in future PNW hydropower generation potential based on
a comprehensive set of climate models and greenhouse gas emissions pathways. We find that the prognosis for PNW hydropower
supply under climate change is worse than anticipated by the NWPCC’s assessment. Differences between the predictions of individual
climate models are found to contribute more to overall uncertainty than do divergent emissions pathways. Uncertainty in predictions
of precipitation change appears to be more important with respect to impact on PNW hydropower than uncertainty in predictions
of temperature change. We also find that a simple regression model captures nearly all of the response of a sequence of complex
numerical models to large scale changes in climate. This result offers the possibility of streamlining both top-down impact
assessment and bottom-up adaptation planning for PNW water and energy resources. 相似文献
8.
Popular Gentle Rik Thwaites Digby Race Kim Alexander Tek Maraseni 《Climatic change》2018,147(1-2):267-282
The research was designed to answer how households and local communities in rural Nepal are responding to the impacts of climate change. Using four villages as case study units, a mixed method approach was adopted in a multi-scaled process carried out at community, district and national levels. The research found that adaptation practices being adopted differ according to household well-being and are largely governed by access to education, information and resources within the community. Responses such as livelihood and income diversification, internal migration, share cropping, taking consumption loans, use of alternative energy and use of bio-pesticides were found to mostly vary according to well-being status of the interviewees. Development of adaptation plans, strategies and support mechanisms should take account of the different adaptation practices and needs of households. If such individual situations are not considered, adaptation responses may be ineffective or even be maladaptive and increase vulnerability. The research also found that the autonomous, unplanned and reactive nature of adaptation practices chosen by rural communities can contribute to further inequity and unequal power relations. The knowledge generated from this research contributes to understanding of how climate change contributes to vulnerability, but also how local practices and lack of an effective climate policy or response measures may magnify the effects of many existing drivers of vulnerability in terms of maladaptation and increasing social inequalities. 相似文献
9.
Vanesa Castán Broto 《Climate Policy》2018,18(2):170-183
Should energy projects to extend the use of natural gas be considered for funding under public climate finance commitments? This article provides an overview of evidence for and against climate finance for natural gas projects. The argument focuses on a case study, the UK’s International Climate Fund (ICF). This synthesis concludes that gas-related projects will rarely be eligible for funding under public climate finance, save a few exceptions in which they provide energy access to households directly. Although gas power plants have generally lower emissions than those which use other fossil fuels such as coal, their impact will depend on the material constraints to calculate emissions reductions, the context of implementation, and the political economy of the target country. Three case studies demonstrate that energy access projects need to be understood as providing a whole range of sustainable benefits, from improving local health to reducing emissions. Overall, gas-related projects are complex interventions that require context-specific knowledge of both the effects of technology and the possible business models that can work in context.POLICY RELEVANCEThis article investigates whether projects related to natural gas constitute an appropriate use of public climate finance, with a particular focus on the UK’s International Climate Fund. Policy makers in developed countries will decide in the coming years how to use public climate finance; that is, the fraction of overseas development assistance (ODA) for climate change mitigation and adaptation. In the UK, for example, the ICF is the most important instrument to provide climate finance for developing countries. In 2013, the UK set out a clear position ‘to end support for public financing of new coal-fired power plants overseas, except in rare circumstances.’ This ban has fostered debate about whether similar positions should follow for other fossil fuels such as natural gas, specifically in the context of ICF funding. Similar debates are taking place in other countries such as Germany and Norway, and are informing the implementation of international facilities such as the Green Climate Fund. 相似文献
10.
IPCC于2019年8月7日通过了《气候变化与土地特别报告》决策者摘要,报告第3章评估了气候变化与荒漠化的关系,取得了一些新认识,包括全球旱地(dryland)和荒漠化的范围、荒漠化过程与影响因素、荒漠化的检测与归因、荒漠化对自然和社会经济系统的影响、荒漠化对气候变化的反馈、未来气候变化对荒漠化的影响与风险,应对荒漠化与适应和减缓气候变化的联系。在估计荒漠化变化、荒漠化变化检测与归因、荒漠化对自然和社会经济系统的影响、荒漠化对气候变化的反馈、应对荒漠化与适应和减缓气候变化联系方面还存在不足。这些评估结果对我国认识旱地和荒漠化范围的变化、影响荒漠化因素、荒漠化过程、荒漠化变化检测与归因,荒漠化对自然和社会经济系统的影响、荒漠化对气候变化的反馈、未来气候变化对荒漠化的影响与风险,以及防治荒漠化与适应和减缓气候变化方面等都有重要的启示。 相似文献
11.
Timescales associated with climate change and their relevance in adaptation strategies 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions that induce changes in the Earth’s climate affect particular variables and locations differently. A key part of this difference is the timescale at which this change takes place, which will eventually have important consequences for adaptation requirements. This idea of timescale associated with climate change has been used several times in the past to estimate the urgency of adaptation in particular regions. The definition of climate-change timescale is, however, not unique. For example, we can think of it in terms of an expected trend (e.g. in temperature) reaching a given threshold, or think of it in terms of the time it may take this trend to become statistically significant. We may also wonder about the validity of this speculation given that, due to natural variability, the expected trend may in fact not be realized. In this article we explore alternative ways of defining the timescale of climate-change, compare their properties, and illustrate them with an example for the case of projected surface temperature over North America. It is shown that these timescales are analytically related but may differ substantially in magnitude under certain conditions. In particular, it is shown that climate change impact on vulnerable systems may arrive before statistical detection of the variable’s trend takes place. This fact may have implications on how climate change impacts are seen by those with diverging interests. 相似文献
12.
适应举措对降低人类和生态系统的气候变化风险有着积极的影响。IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第二工作组（WGII）报告全面评估了适应的可行性和有效性,深入评估了适应局限性和不良适应。报告认为,个人、地方、区域和国家各级的适应行动都在增加,但是在做决策时需考虑不良适应的风险。报告从经济、技术、制度、社会、环境和地球物理这6个维度,对23个适应措施的可行性进行了评估;这些适应措施分布在陆地、海洋与生态系统,城乡与基础设施系统,能源系统以及跨部门等四大系统,其中,基于森林的适应、具有恢复力的电力系统、能源可靠性等适应措施具有高信度的高可行性。适应措施的可行性和有效性会随着气候变暖的增加而降低,需要采用多种措施来降低未来气候变化风险。 相似文献
13.
1951-2014年,北京市年平均气温以0.37℃/10a的速度上升,且热岛效应强度和范围增大。随着北京城市化发展,气候变化给北京市能源系统带来的额外压力也趋于显著。本研究着重分析了气候变化条件下能源系统的脆弱性。研究结果表明,气候变化下北京市能源系统的脆弱性主要表现在高温天气条件下,电力需求负荷超过电力供应系统设计最大负荷;低温条件下,天然气供应短缺;极端天气给能源生产、能源供应和能源运输造成威胁。针对北京市能源系统的脆弱性,借鉴国际经验,提出了北京市能源系统提升气候变化适应能力的短期战略和长期战略,并分别从政策、技术和管理方面提出了短期战略的适应建议。 相似文献
14.
J. Gordon Arbuckle Jr. Linda Stalker Prokopy Tonya Haigh Jon Hobbs Tricia Knoot Cody Knutson Adam Loy Amber Saylor Mase Jean McGuire Lois Wright Morton John Tyndall Melissa Widhalm 《Climatic change》2013,117(4):943-950
A February 2012 survey of almost 5,000 farmers across a region of the U.S. that produces more than half of the nation’s corn and soybean revealed that 66 % of farmers believed climate change is occurring (8 % mostly anthropogenic, 33 % equally human and natural, 25 % mostly natural), while 31 % were uncertain and 3.5 % did not believe that climate change is occurring. Results of initial analyses indicate that farmers’ beliefs about climate change and its causes vary considerably, and the relationships between those beliefs, concern about the potential impacts of climate change, and attitudes toward adaptive and mitigative action differ in systematic ways. Farmers who believed that climate change is occurring and attributable to human activity were significantly more likely to express concern about impacts and support adaptive and mitigative action. On the other hand, farmers who attributed climate change to natural causes, were uncertain about whether it is occurring, or did not believe that it is occurring were less concerned, less supportive of adaptation, and much less likely to support government and individual mitigative action. Results suggest that outreach with farmers should account for these covariances in belief, concerns, and attitudes toward adaptation and mitigation. 相似文献
15.
The potential impacts of progressing climate change are alarming. Some adverse consequences are now unavoidable and adaptation measures are increasingly needful. This poses enormous challenges for emerging megacities in the Global South, which barely manage in current weather conditions. This paper introduces Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping as a new tool for structured, semi-quantitative assessments of climate change impacts and adaptation measures.Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping is used to evaluate differences in sensitivities to heatwaves and rainstorms across socio-economic groups and for the ranking of useful adaptation options, based on 188 individual interviews to the impacts of extreme weather events in Hyderabad, India. The results of this multi-stakeholder assessment indicate that rainstorms affect low-income residents more than heatwaves, while the opposite is true for medium-income respondents. The latter are also less seriously affected by extreme weather in general. Profession, though, not income determines the kind of impact that people feel most affected by. Individual characteristics like age and gender do not significantly explain differences in the data, but religion does. This is because, in Hyderabad, Muslims live in the older, less serviced and more affected parts of the city. However, semi-quantitative scenario analyses suggest that, under future climate change, many parts of the city will become increasingly exposed to the effects of extreme weather. Planned investments in urban infrastructure will be seriously challenged by climate change and preventive adaptation measures are urgently needed to at least maintain the current level of quality of life. Investments in the health infrastructure appear to be most effective in reducing the impact of heatwaves and investments in the traffic infrastructure most effective in reducing the impact of rainstorms. However, looking at heat and rain events together—which is realistic as they are both projected to increase and often occur in the same year—reveals that investments in water infrastructure and management have greatest potential to reduce impacts across all localities and on all social groups, particularly the lower-income classes. This is because first-order impacts caused by inadequate water infrastructure often give rise to second- or third-order impacts. Addressing the root cause is the most effective way to break cause-and-effect chains and prevent proliferation of negative consequences. Similar studies are suggested in other cities in order to support adaptation mainstreaming in complex urban environments. Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping proved a useful, semi-quantitative tool for climate change impact and adaptation assessments. 相似文献
16.
Seaports are located in vulnerable areas to climate change impacts: on coasts susceptible to sea-level rise and storms or at mouths of rivers susceptible to flooding. They serve a vital function within the local, regional, and global economy. Their locations in the heart of sensitive estuarine environments make it an imperative to minimize the impacts of natural hazards. Climate impacts, like a projected SLR of .6?m to 2?m and doubling of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes by 2100, will result in more extreme events at many seaports. To assess the current state of knowledge on this issue, we surveyed port authorities from around the world about how administrators felt climate change might impact their operations, what sea-level change would create operational problems, and how they planned to adapt to new environmental conditions. The planned rapid expansion of ports reported by the survey respondents indicates that adaptation measures should be considered as ports construct new infrastructure that may still be in use at the end of the century. Respondents agreed that the ports community needs to address this issue and most felt relatively uninformed about potential climate impacts. Although most ports felt that SLR would not be an issue at their port this century, sea-level rise was nevertheless an issue of great concern. Our results suggest opportunities for the scientific community to engage with port practitioners to prepare proactively for climate change impacts on this sector. 相似文献
17.
Energy is crucial for supporting basic human needs, development and well-being. The future evolution of the scale and character of the energy system will be fundamentally shaped by socioeconomic conditions and drivers, available energy resources, technologies of energy supply and transformation, and end-use energy demand. However, because energy-related activities are significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental and social externalities, energy system development will also be influenced by social acceptance and strategic policy choices. All of these uncertainties have important implications for many aspects of economic and environmental sustainability, and climate change in particular. In the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework these uncertainties are structured into five narratives, arranged according to the challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. In this study we explore future energy sector developments across the five SSPs using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and we also provide summary output and analysis for selected scenarios of global emissions mitigation policies. The mitigation challenge strongly corresponds with global baseline energy sector growth over the 21st century, which varies between 40% and 230% depending on final energy consumer behavior, technological improvements, resource availability and policies. The future baseline CO2-emission range is even larger, as the most energy-intensive SSP also incorporates a comparatively high share of carbon-intensive fossil fuels, and vice versa. Inter-regional disparities in the SSPs are consistent with the underlying socioeconomic assumptions; these differences are particularly strong in the SSPs with large adaptation challenges, which have little inter-regional convergence in long-term income and final energy demand levels. The scenarios presented do not include feedbacks of climate change on energy sector development. The energy sector SSPs with and without emissions mitigation policies are introduced and analyzed here in order to contribute to future research in climate sciences, mitigation analysis, and studies on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. 相似文献
18.
An integrated assessment is presented of the potential impacts of the cattle tick (Boophilus microplus Canestrini) on the Australian beefindustry under climate change. The project was carried out as a case study to test an impact assessment approach that was designed to integrate biological, production and socio-economic impacts on managed and natural systems. A climate-driven, tick population model was run for European, zebu and crossbred cattle breeds having different levels of resistance to cattle ticks. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to organise spatial data on climate scenarios and industry statistics and to undertake regional analyses.A comparison was made of the two available approaches to conducting impact assessments, namely a bottom-up approach using sensitivity analysis and a top-down approach using climate change scenarios from a global circulation model (GCM) (CSIRO, 1996). The output, in terms of the abundance of tick populations and reductions in cattle productivity for each breed showed significant expansions in potential geographical impacts. In the absence of any adaptation measures, the results indicated changes in the losses in live weight gain of cattle tick ranging from 7780 tonnes per year by 2030 to 21637 tonnes per year by 2100, in comparison with estimates for current losses of 6594 tonnes per year.The principal adaptation options available to the beef industry are to switch to breeds that are more resistant to cattle ticks, or to increase the frequency of treatments with various tick control products. In this paper we focus on switching breeds as an adaptive measure when appropriate damage thresholds are triggered under the climate change scenarios. When adaptation measures were put in place, the losses ranged from 4962 tonnes in 2030 to 5619 tonnes in 2100 compared with 2636 tonnes at present if all producers adopted the optimal breed structure. Optimal breed structure was defined as one that would prevent tick numbers per animal exceeding 100 ticks per animal for European and 700 ticks per animal for crossbred breeds of cattle in any week of the year under a tick control strategy that was suitable for present climatic conditions. The lower threshold for European breeds reflects their vulnerability to explosive increases in numbers because of their low resistance to ticks. The results of the analyses using the GCM scenarios were used in an economic model to calculate costs of lost live-weight gain for 2030, 2070 and 2100. The greatest increases in costs were incurred in the southern parts of the current distribution in Queensland and potentially in northern New South Wales if the present quarantine barrier failed.Given the great uncertainty of the nature of possible regional changes in climate, analyses of the sensitivity of losses in live weight gain to changes in climatic variables were also undertaken. The analyses included a measure of likely impacts of cattle tick on the beef cattle industry, in the absence of adaptation measures, as a baseline measure of sensitivity. The likely impacts on crossbred cattle were insensitive to the climatic variables.When adaptive breed changes were allowed, the economic impacts on the industry were insensitive to the GCM scenarios. This suggests that, at least in this instance, reducing the uncertainties in climate change scenarios is not a priority if the adaptation strategies can be implemented in a cost-effective manner. Finally we made a qualitative assessment of the sustainability and robustness of alternative approaches to adaptation and assessed regional vulnerability to cattle tick under climate change. The conclusions were so strongly dependent on assumptions about the future of other global changes, in particular the ability to maintain quarantine barriers and to retain effective acaricides at comparable costs to the present, that we strongly recommend that risk assessments of climate change extend to all relevant variables in involved in global change where possible. 相似文献
19.
R. Warren J. A. Lowe N. W. Arnell C. Hope P. Berry S. Brown A. Gambhir S. N. Gosling R. J. Nicholls J. O’Hanley T. J. Osborn T. Osborne J. Price S. C. B. Raper G. Rose J. Vanderwal 《Climatic change》2013,120(1-2):55-70
Quantitative simulations of the global-scale benefits of climate change mitigation are presented, using a harmonised, self-consistent approach based on a single set of climate change scenarios. The approach draws on a synthesis of output from both physically-based and economics-based models, and incorporates uncertainty analyses. Previous studies have projected global and regional climate change and its impacts over the 21st century but have generally focused on analysis of business-as-usual scenarios, with no explicit mitigation policy included. This study finds that both the economics-based and physically-based models indicate that early, stringent mitigation would avoid a large proportion of the impacts of climate change projected for the 2080s. However, it also shows that not all the impacts can now be avoided, so that adaptation would also therefore be needed to avoid some of the potential damage. Delay in mitigation substantially reduces the percentage of impacts that can be avoided, providing strong new quantitative evidence for the need for stringent and prompt global mitigation action on greenhouse gas emissions, combined with effective adaptation, if large, widespread climate change impacts are to be avoided. Energy technology models suggest that such stringent and prompt mitigation action is technologically feasible, although the estimated costs vary depending on the specific modelling approach and assumptions. 相似文献
20.
综述了区分气候变化和人类活动对水文要素影响的研究方法,提出当前研究中应将流域水文过程变化的环境因素来源分为气候自然变异、人为气候变化和人类活动三个方面,并给出了方法体系;基于环境变化下流域水文过程的复杂不确定性,详细剖析了环境变化下流域水文过程的不确定性来源,总结了常用的不确定性评估方法,并介绍了针对定性不确定性（奈特不确定性）评估的信息差距理论。指出为提高减缓和适应环境变化能力,未来应加强以气候自然变异、人为气候变化和人类活动三源分解的环境变化影响研究;不确定性分析应成为环境模拟的固有组成部分,在影响评价中应注重不确定性的评估,并应加强不确定性信息在流域管理决策中的应用研究以及流域风险管理研究。 相似文献