共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 781 毫秒
1.
蓬莱19-3 油田事故溢油数值模拟 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用FVCOM(Finite-volume coastal ocean numerical model)数值模型和MM5风场预报模式,在对渤海海域水动力场进行数值模拟的基础上,基于"油粒子"的欧拉-拉格朗日跟踪法和随机走动原理,并考虑风对溢油油膜漂移扩散的直接作用,建立了海洋溢油油膜漂移轨迹和扩散的数值预测模型。利用建立的模型对2011年6月蓬莱19-3油田事故溢油进行了数值模拟,模拟结果与RADARSAT卫星遥感监测数据相吻合。研究结果表明:在渤海中部地区夏季事故溢油模拟预测中,风漂移因子取0.024最为合理,模型可用于渤海蓬莱19-3油田附近事故溢油轨迹和扩散的快速预报,从而为该区域的溢油事故应急响应提供科学依据。 相似文献
2.
耦合海洋和溢油模型,建立起1个适用于长江口深水航道内溢油轨迹预报模型。海洋模型考虑了深水航道中导堤丁坝的影响,能够较好地模拟深水航道内流场,使物理场更加可信;溢油模型采用前国际上常用的随机游走和拉格朗日油粒子追踪法,预测油粒子的漂移扩散轨迹和扫海面积。研究表明:在深水航道中段发生的溢油事故,油粒子的漂移分布和扫海面积受导堤丁坝和流场的共同影响,涨急时刻溢油24h后油粒子的分布和扫海主要分布在导堤丁坝附近,落急时刻溢油的油粒子则大部分分布于导堤丁坝外,扫海面积也比涨急时刻大,对九段沙自然保护敏感区域产生一定程度的潜在生态影响。本文用数值实验的方法验证了海洋模型中考虑导堤丁坝与不考虑导堤丁坝相比,溢油轨迹预测是有差别的,考虑了导堤丁坝会对油粒子在导堤丁坝附近的漂移和扩散起阻挡约束和聚集的作用,没有考虑导堤丁坝的溢油扫海面积增大。 相似文献
3.
4.
5.
《应用海洋学学报》2014,(3)
海上船舶溢油,大多持续时间较短,事故发生后,溢油输移扩散受海洋水动力场和风场的影响很大.因此,研究溢油对海洋环境的影响,从概率统计的角度研究更具有实际意义.本文以船舶交通事故概率较高的胶州湾为研究海域,依据青岛港海域水上交通事故空间分布统计数据,在基于油粒子追踪法建立胶州湾溢油漂移扩散模型的基础上,考虑随机风场和流场的组合动力条件,统计溢油抵达岸线和敏感保护目标的概率.结果表明,事故高发区溢油,胶州湾岸线污染概率较大的为大港、黄岛油港、团岛至大麦岛联线,海洋保护目标中青岛文昌鱼海洋保护区和青岛海滨风景旅游休闲娱乐区受污染的概率较大,分别达到40%和50%. 相似文献
6.
7.
青岛港黄岛油区建成投产后,在扩大石油进出口量的同时,也使事故溢油污染概率增大,对胶州湾海水环境造成了威胁。从已经发生的油污染事件看,溢油多数是由于油船海损,其次是港口机具或储油设备损坏造成的。由于溢油多数是突然发生,在短时间内将大量石油泄漏海中,造成大面积海面或海滩油污染。溢油污染不但造成直接经济损失,而且油污染较长时间内难以清除干净,对海洋生态环境、沿岸旅游环境和社会环境都产生恶劣的影响,因此溢油污染危害早已引起青岛市有关部门的重视,先后开展了油污染监测和预报工作。本文根据胶州湾及邻近海域事故溢油污染预警、预报的需要,给出预报模型和典型天气下黄岛油区溢油行为和污染范围的预测,对有效地预防溢油污染和制定抢救、回收措拖及方案提供了重要依据。 相似文献
8.
利用中尺度气象模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)、无结构网格近岸海洋模式FVCOM(Finite-Volume Coastal and Ocean Model)和基于蒙特卡洛随机统计理论的海上搜救目标漂移轨迹模式Leeway,建立了长江口及邻近海域海上搜救物漂移轨迹预测模型系统。漂移轨迹预测以风和表层海流预报为基础,考虑了包括落水位置和时间、风致漂移方向、搜救目标物状态的不确定性以及风场预报误差带来的漂移路径预测误差,经统计获得搜救目标物可能漂移集合范围。对近年来发生在长江口邻近海域的海难事故后报模拟验证结果证明了Leeway模式在长江口邻近海域的适用性,同时表明所建立的搜救模型系统具有较高的精度,操作方便、时效性高,在搜救业务化预报工作中具有广阔的应用前景。 相似文献
9.
2018年2月1日,北京,“桑吉”轮碰撞燃爆事故处置工作新闻发布会,“从海上一线调查来看,国家海洋局第一时间就派出三条船赶赴现场进行现场的监测,”“我们在沉船点周边海域以及漂移路径共采集了360个水样,监测结果显示溢油已对事故海域造成一定生态环境影响,累计有11个站位的水样石油类物质浓度超第四类海水水质标准”。当时我正在单位食堂吃饭,当我看到这些信息的时候,感到特别欣慰和骄傲,那次应急监测的场景又一幕幕的出现在我的脑海里。 相似文献
10.
近岸溢油漂移扩散预测方法研究——以胶州湾溢油事件为例 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
近些年,由于中国经济的高速发展,原油需求逐年增长,同时海上溢油事故发生的风险也在加剧。海上溢油会严重破坏海洋环境,危害我国经济发展,加强溢油漂移扩散预报研究能够为海上溢油应急响应提供技术支撑。因此,国家海洋信息中心研发了海上突发事件应急一体化预测预警系统。该系统基于GIS平台研发,能够在二维电子海图基础上叠加相关的海洋环境动力要素信息,模拟溢油扩散和漂移态势,同时计算剩余油量,估算溢油面积以及岸线吸附程度等。2013年11月22日,山东黄岛发生输油管道爆炸事故,造成大量原油溢入胶州湾。本文利用该系统结合高分辨率大气模型WRF的三重嵌套技术和海流模型SELFE的非结构化网格加密技术,对事故溢油漂移扩散开展了预测工作。预测结果显示,油污受胶州湾内往复流的影响极大,72 h后,胶州湾内外大部分海域都将存在油污,主要集中在黄岛沿岸海域、团岛及浮山湾附近,预测扫海面积为70.32 km2。经海事部门高分辨率卫星观测结果印证,系统模拟的溢油分布较为合理。该系统的业务化应用为相关海上溢油污染应急工作提供了一定理论依据和参考。 相似文献
11.
The condensate and bunker oil leaked from the Sanchi collision would cause a persistent impact on marine ecosystems in the surrounding areas. The long-term prediction for the distribution of the oil-polluted water and the information for the most affected regions would provide valuable information for the oceanic environment protection and pollution assessment. Based on the operational forecast system developed by the First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, we precisely predicted the drifting path of the oil tanker Sanchi after its collision. Trajectories of virtual oil particles show that the oil leaked from the Sanchi after it sank is mainly transported to the northeastern part of the sink location, and quickly goes to the open ocean along with the Kuroshio. Risk probability analysis based on the outcomes from the operational forecast system for years 2009 to2017 shows that the most affected area is at the northeast of the sink location. 相似文献
12.
13.
ABSTRACTOil spill forecast modelling is typically used immediately after a spill to predict oil dispersal and promote mobilisation of more effective response operations. The aim of this work was to map oil dispersal after the grounding of the MV Rena on Astrolabe Reef and to verify the results against observations. Model predictions were broadly consistent with observed distribution of oil contamination. However, some hot spots of oil accumulation, likely due to surf-zone and rip current circulation, were not well represented. Additionally, the model was run with 81 differing wind conditions to show that the events occurring during the grounding represented the typical likely behaviour of an oil spill on Astrolabe Reef. Oil dispersal was highly dependent on prevailing wind patterns; more accurate prediction would require better observations of local wind patterns. However, comparison of predictions with observations indicated that the GNOME model was an effective low-cost approach. 相似文献
14.
《Ocean Modelling》2011,39(3-4):251-266
Results are presented from an ensemble prediction study (EPS) of the East Australian Current (EAC) with a specific focus on the examination of the role of dynamical instabilities and flow dependent growing errors. The region where the EAC separates from the coast, is characterized by significant mesoscale eddy variability, meandering and is dominated by nonlinear dynamics thereby representing a severe challenge for operational forecasting. Using analyses from OceanMAPS, the Australian operational ocean forecast system, we explore the structures of flow dependent forecast errors over 7 days and examine the role of dynamical instabilities. Forecast ensemble perturbations are generated using the method of bred vectors allowing the identification of those perturbations to a given initial state that grow most rapidly. We consider a 6 month period spanning the Austral summer that corresponds to the season of maximum eddy variability. We find that the bred vector (BV) structures occur in areas of instability where forecast errors are large and in particular in regions associated with the Tasman Front and EAC extension. We also find that very few BVs are required to identify these regions of large forecast error and on that basis we expect that even a small BV ensemble would prove useful for adaptive sampling and targeted observations. The results presented also suggest that it may be beneficial to supplement the static background error covariances typically used in operational ocean data assimilation systems with flow dependent background errors calculated using a relatively cheap EPS. 相似文献
15.
互花米草(Spartina alterniflora)具有较强的固碳作用,了解互花米草群落的甲烷通量可为评估互花米草的净碳汇功能提供重要参数。本文分析了我国滨海湿地互花米草群落CH4通量的总体特点和机制,结果表明：①不同地区互花米草群落CH4通量无明显规律且差异较大。不同生长环境下的环境因子对CH4排放有综合调控作用,其中很大部分是通过影响土壤中与CH4产生有关的微生物影响CH4通量。②互花米草群落CH4通量夏季最高、冬春较低;日通量则处于不规则的波动中,但总体白天通量高于夜晚。CH4通量季节差异与温度、生物量和光照呈正相关,温度影响参与CH4生成的微生物的活性,生物量为CH4产生提供有机质原料,光照则通过光合作用影响有机质的合成;日通量差异除与温度和光照有关外,最主要还受到潮汐变化的影响。③无潮水覆盖时CH4通量远大于有潮水覆盖时。有潮水覆盖时互花米草下部作为CH4排向大气的重要通道受阻,同时CH4被储存于土壤或排放到潮水中,落潮后才进入大气,因此CH4通量更低。④刈割会降低CH4通量。互花米草植株为CH4的产生提供了重要原料,同时利用通气组织将CH4排放到大气,刈割切断了CH4传输途径并减少了地上生物量,因此降低了CH4通量。 相似文献
16.
TANG Yijie FANG Zhanqiang ZHANG Zaiwang ZHONG Yanting CHEN Kang LIU Benhan FAN Junjie XIONG Tiantian LU Xiaosheng 《海洋学报(英文版)》2014,33(8):62-72
The Sonneratia apetala artificial mangroves in the intertidal zone of Da Wei Bay at Qi’ao Island of Zhu-hai, South China were chosen as the macrofauna succession plots while bare tidal flats of the same size were established as control plots in surrounding interference-free areas. Conventional change indicators of community structure, such as biomass and biodiversity, and indicators, such as exergy and specific exergy, which reflect the information change of overall communities, were used to analyze the succession of macro-fauna communities inS. apetala artificial mangroves. The similarities and differences in variation tendency of the different ecological indicators and their reflected ecological principles were compared. The results showed that from D-1 to D-1275 after plantingS. apetala, the biomass of the macrofauna communities first increased, which was then followed by an increase in the network relationship between the macrofauna communities （analysis of the Pielou evenness index and Shannon-Wiener diversity index）. The system in-formation （specific exergy） increased the slowest. Between D-1460 and D-2370 after plantingS. apetala, there was a decrease in biomass, network structure, and system information in the succession plots. After the decrease in the system information （the specific exergy）, there was a decline in the network relationships （Pielou evenness index and Shannon-Wiener diversity index）. Biomass was the last indicator to decrease. The similarities and differences among the different ecological indicators varied during the succession pro-cess, which reflected the relativity and differences among the indicators. This study suggested that, although the species diversity index can be an effective indicator of two types of changes （network structure and system information）, it was quite clear that species diversity measurement was not suitable for expressing the changes in biomass during the succession process. While exergy and specific exergy can provide useful information 相似文献
17.
根据2021年渔业资源调查数据构建了含有23个功能组的舟山海域生态系统Ecopath模型,分析了当前舟山海域生态系统总体特征并估算了褐菖鲉在舟山海域的生态容量。结果表明:舟山海域生态系统营养级范围为1.000 (浮游植物和有机碎屑)～4.277 ( 鳐类),石首鱼科、虾类和 鳐类为舟山海域生态系统中的关键种。碎屑食物链和牧食食物链是舟山海域生态系统主要的食物链。碎屑和浮游植物对食物网的贡献率分别为61.32%和38.69%。始于浮游植物和碎屑的营养传递效率分别是9.34%和10.50%,系统总营养传递效率是9.82%。总初级生产量/总呼吸量为2.26,系统连接指数为0.372,系统杂食性指数为0.222。生态系统总体特征反映了舟山海域生态系统的成熟状态较低,生态系统处于不稳定阶段,容易受到外界环境变化的影响。根据模型估算,当褐菖鲉生物量增加至8.6倍时,褐菖鲉达到生态容量0.007 95 t/km2,此时生态系统仍保持平衡,且生态系统总体特征基本稳定。因此,褐菖鲉在舟山海域尚有较大增殖潜力。 相似文献
18.
结合极化分解特征的SVM溢油检测研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Marine oil spills have caused major threats to marine environment over the past few years.The early detection of the oil spill is of great significance for the prevention and control of marine disasters.At present,remote sensing is one of the major approaches for monitoring the oil spill.Full polarization synthetic aperture radarc SAR data are employed to extract polarization decomposition parameters including entropy(H) and reflection entropy(A).The characteristic spectrum of the entropy and reflection entropy combination has analyzed and the polarization characteristic spectrum of the oil spill has developed to support remote sensing of the oil spill.The findings show that the information extracted from(1–A)×(1–H) and(1–H)×A parameters is relatively evident effects.The results of extraction of the oil spill information based on H×A parameter are relatively not good.The combination of the two has something to do with H and A values.In general,when H0.7,A value is relatively small.Here,the extraction of the oil spill information using(1–A)×(1–H) and(1–H)×A parameters obtains evident effects.Whichever combined parameter is adopted,oil well data would cause certain false alarm to the extraction of the oil spill information.In particular the false alarm of the extracted oil spill information based on(1–A)×(1–H) is relatively high,while the false alarm based on(1–A)×H and(1–H)×A parameters is relatively small,but an image noise is relatively big.The oil spill detection employing polarization characteristic spectrum support vector machine can effectively identify the oil spill information with more accuracy than that of the detection method based on single polarization feature. 相似文献
19.
以海水青鳉(Oryzias melastigma)胚胎为研究对象,比较了120#燃料油分散液(water-accommodated fractions,WAFs)与乳化液(biologically enhanced water-accommodated fractions,BE-WAFs)的急性毒性效应,并研究了不同浓度(40、100、250 mg/L)下WAFs、BE-WAFs对胚胎内超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)、过氧化氢酶(CAT)、谷胱甘肽硫转移酶(GST)活性的影响。结果表明:在受到石油烃的氧化胁迫后,海水青鳉胚胎内3种抗氧化酶活性变化明显。随着石油烃浓度的升高和暴露时间的延长,3种酶表现出程度不同的诱导效应和抑制效应。其中受石油烃污染影响最为明显的为SOD酶;而GST酶则对消油剂单独暴露表现较为敏感。实验证明,海水青鳉体内SOD酶活性对石油烃污染反应最为敏感,适合作为监测石油烃污染程度的生物标志物。 相似文献