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1.
The nature of catchment‐scale sediment (dis)connectivity is the primary influence on sediment delivery to trunk streams and controls the particle size distribution of channel bed sediments. Here, we examine the distribution of major sediment buffers (floodplains, terraces, alluvial fans, trapped tributary fills), barriers (weirs), and effective catchment area (i.e. sediment contributing area) to characterize the potential for coarse sediment (dis)connectivity in 20 tributaries of Lockyer Creek, in the Lockyer Valley, SEQ. We then analyse the distribution of trunk stream sedimentary links to determine how certain tributaries or disconnecting features (buffers and barriers) influence downstream patterns of bed sediment fining along Lockyer Creek. We find that buffering increases downstream in the Lockyer Valley, and that tributary position and shape influence the space available for sediment buffering. Correspondingly, the spatial extent of sediment buffers impacts the distribution of effective catchment area, which influences the sedimentological significance of individual tributaries. Tributary sediment connectivity, the extent of overbank flows (floodwater zones), and weir locations all exert an additional influence on the distribution of sediment links along the trunk stream. These controls are related to the physiographic and climatic setting of the Lockyer Valley, and anthropogenic influences in this system. We conclude that controls on sediment connectivity and bed load sediment characteristics are highly variable between catchments, and that sediment (dis)connectivity merits equal consideration with tributary basin/channel size when determining controls on tributary–trunk stream relationships and channel sediment regime. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
Abstract

Results of a comprehensive synoptic-hydrological analysis of major flood events in the Negev (1964–2007) are presented. A low threshold for major flood data was set to be the 10-year recurrence interval of peak discharge and/or flood volume magnitude. Altogether, 75 major flood events, or 133 hydrometrically monitored floods, were extracted. These events were categorized according to synoptic oriented classes by verification of the paired databases of: (a) floods in the study area, and (b) synoptic systems over the Eastern Mediterranean. For the study area, two of the most frequent flood-generating synoptic systems are the autumn Red Sea Trough (RST), 31%, and winter cyclones, 49%. The entire RST series consists of 24 major flood events (55 floods). The synoptic definition was corroborated by analysing the specific form of flood hydrographs and the ratio of flood volume to peak discharge. Regional analysis shows increased contribution of RST events southwards from 30% to 90% with a respective decrease in the number of cyclone events. By comparing two 22-year sub-periods (1964–1985 and 1986–2007), a positive trend in the frequency and magnitudes of RST flood events is discerned. There is also an increased tendency for the occurrence of cyclone floods.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Shentsis, I., Laronne J.B., and Alpert, P., 2012. Red Sea Trough flood events in the Negev, Israel (1964–2007). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 42–51.  相似文献   

3.
ABSTRACT

Taking a representative catchment of the Yangtze River Delta region as the study area, this research evaluated sub-daily rainstorm variability and its potential effects on flood processes based on an integrated approach of the HEC-HMS model and design storm hyetographs. The results show that the intensities of rainfall on sub-daily scale are getting more extreme. The annual maximum 1-, 2- and 3-hour rainstorms followed significant upward trends with increases of 0.32, 0.43 and 0.44 mm per year, respectively, while the annual maximum 6-, 12- and 24-h events had non-significant rising trends. The detected significant trends in short-duration rainstorms were then used to redesign storm hyetographs to drive the HEC-HMS model, the results show that these changes in short-duration rainstorm characteristics would increase the flood peak discharge and flood volume. These findings indicate that regional flood control capabilities must be improved to manage the adverse impacts of rainfall variation under changing environments.  相似文献   

4.
In arid climate regions, redistribution of runoff water is highly relevant for vegetation development. The process of water redistribution at catchment scale is studied with the landscape process model LAPSUS, mainly used for erosion and sedimentation modelling. LAPSUS, formerly applied in Mediterranean climates, is modified to deal with the arid climate of the Negev Desert of Israel. Daily event based model runs were used instead of yearly model runs, and the infiltration module was modified to better represent the spatial diversity in water availability in an arid catchment. The model is calibrated for two small catchments in the Negev Desert of Israel, Halluqim and Avdat. First, a sensitivity analysis of the modified LAPSUS is performed. Pore volume appears to have an especially strong influence on the modelling results. Second, the capability of LAPSUS to deal with varying surface characteristics is assessed by comparing the water redistribution patterns in the two catchments with field data. Simulation results demonstrate that the catchments respond very differently to precipitation. Water redistribution is larger in the dominantly bedrock covered Halluqim compared to the dominantly loess covered catchment of Avdat. Consequently, Halluqim has more positions with water accumulation than Avdat, and can sustain a larger vegetation cover, including Mediterranean species. Finally, the modelled infiltration patterns are compared with vegetation cover in the catchments. The results indicate that there is a broad agreement between infiltration and vegetation patterns, but locally there is a strong mismatch, indicating that some of the involved processes are still missing from the model. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Raise Beck is a mountain torrent located in the central Lake District fells, northern England (drainage area of 1·27 km2). The torrent shows evidence of several major flood events, the most recent of which was in January 1995. This event caused a major channel avulsion at the fan apex diverting the main flood flow to the south, blocking the A591 trunk road and causing local flooding. The meteorological conditions associated with this event are described using local rainfall records and climatic data. Records show 164 mm of rainfall in the 24 hours preceding the flood. The peak flood discharge is reconstructed using palaeohydrological and rainfall–runoff methods, which provide discharge values of 27–74 m3 s?1, and 4–6 m3 s?1, respectively. The flood transported boulders with b‐axes up to 1400 mm. These results raise some important general questions about flood estimation in steep mountain catchments. The geomorphological impact of the event is evaluated by comparing aerial photographs from before and after the flood, along with direct field observations. Over the historical timescale the impact and occurrence of flooding is investigated using lichenometry, long‐term rainfall data, and documentary records. Two major historical floods events are identified in the middle of the nineteenth century. The deposits of the recent and historical flood events dominate the sedimentological evidence of flooding at Raise Beck, therefore the catchment is sensitive to high magnitude, low frequency events. Following the 1995 flood much of the lower catchment was channelized using rip‐rap bank protection, re‐establishing flow north towards Thirlmere. The likely success of this management strategy in containing future floods is considered, based on an analysis of channel capacities. It is concluded that the channelization scheme is only a short‐term solution, which would fail to contain the discharge of an event equivalent to the January 1995 flood. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
Although much is known about overall sediment delivery ratios for catchments as components of sediment production and sediment yield, little is known about the component of temporary sediment storage. Sediment delivery ratios focused on the influence of storm-related sediment storage are measured at Matakonekone and Oil Springs tributaries of the Waipaoa River basin, east coast of New Zealand. The terrace deposits of both tributaries show abundant evidence of storm-related sedimentation, especially sediment delivered from Cyclone Bola, a 50 year return rainfall event which occurred in 1988. The sediment delivery ratio is calculated by dividing the volume of sediment transported from a tributary to the main stream by the volume of sediment generated at erosion sites in the tributary catchment. Because the sediment delivery volume is unknown, it can be calculated as the difference between sediment generation volume and sediment storage volume in the channel reach of the tributary. The volume of sediment generated from erosion sites in each tributary catchment was calculated from measurements made on aerial photographs dating from 1960 (1:44 000) and 1988 (1:27 000). The volume of sediment stored in the tributary can be calculated from measurements of cross-sections located along the tributary channel, which are accompanied by terrace deposits dated by counting annual growth rings of trees on terrace surfaces. Sediment delivery ratios are 0·93 for both Matakonekone catchment and Oil Springs catchment. Results indicate that Oil Springs catchment has contributed more than twice the volume of sediment to the Waipaoa River than the Matakonekone catchment (2·75 × 106 m3 vs 1·22 × 106 m3). Although large volumes of sediment are initially deposited during floods, subsequent smaller flows scour away much of these deposits. The sediment scouring rate from storage is 1·25 × 104 m3 a−1 for Matakonekone stream and 0·83 × 104 m3 a−1 for Oil Springs stream. Matakonekone and Oil Springs channels respond to extreme storms by instantaneously aggrading, then gradually excavating the temporarily stored sediment. Results from Matakonekone and Oil Springs streams suggest a mechanism by which event recurrence interval can strongly influence the magnitude of a geomorphic change. Matakonekone stream with its higher stream power is expected to excavate sediment deposits more rapidly and allow more rapid re-establishment of storage capacity. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
In this study, we investigated rainfall, run‐off, and sediment transport dynamics (414 run‐off events and 231 events with sediment information) of a humid mountain badland area—the Araguás catchment (Central Pyrenees, Spain)—from October 2005 to September 2016. Use of this long‐term database allows characterization of the hydrological response, which consist of low‐magnitude/high‐frequency events and high‐magnitude/low‐frequency events, and identification of seasonal dynamics and rainfall‐run‐off thresholds. Our results indicate that the Araguás catchment, similarly to other humid badlands, had high hydrological responsiveness (mean annual run‐off coefficient: 0.52), a non‐linear relationship of rainfall with run‐off (common in Mediterranean environments), and seasonal hydrological and sedimentological dynamics. We created and validated a multivariate regression model to characterize the hydrological variables (stormflow and peak discharge) and sedimentological variables (mean and maximum suspended sediment concentrations and total suspended sediment load). In summer and at the beginning of autumn, the response was mainly related to rainfall intensity, suggesting a predomination of Hortonian flows. In contrast, in spring and winter, the responses were mainly related to the antecedent conditions (previous rainfall and baseflow), suggesting the occurrence of saturated excess flow processes, and the contribution of neighbouring vegetated areas. The multivariate analysis also showed that total sediment load is better predicted by a multivariate regression model that integrates pre‐event, rainfall, and run‐off variables. In general, our models provided more accurate predictions of small‐magnitude/high‐frequency events than high‐magnitude/low‐frequency events. This study highlights the high inter‐ and intra‐annual variability response in humid badland areas and that long‐term records are needed to reduce the uncertainty of hydrological and sedimentological responses in Mediterranean badland areas.  相似文献   

8.
Abstract

It is generally accepted that the celerity of a discharge wave exceeds that of a floodwave. The discharge wave is the initial wavefront (shown by an increase in stage at a particular site), whereas the floodwave refers to the body of water moving downstream. Yet, few studies have investigated the varying relationship between discharge and suspended sediment concentration as floods propagate downstream. This paper examines the relative velocities of the discharge and sediment waves for natural flood events on the River Severn, UK. Four monitoring stations were established within the upper 35 km reach of the River Severn (drainage basin area 380 km2). Discharge was monitored using fixed structures, and suspended sediment concentrations were monitored at similar locations using Partech IR40C turbidity meters. Results showed discharge wave celerity increased with flood magnitude, but relationships were more complex for sediment wave celerity. Sediment wave celerity was greater than discharge wave celerity, and is attributed to the dominant source of sediment, which is most probably bank erosion.  相似文献   

9.
徐天奕 《湖泊科学》2022,34(4):1308-1318
太湖是太湖流域最大的调蓄水体,合理地推求太湖流域设计暴雨,对于太湖设计洪水位确定非常重要.针对近年来太湖流域变化环境造成的暴雨特性及产汇流机制的变异,采用水文水动力学模型模拟分析了现状条件下太湖流域设计暴雨控制时段及时空分布对太湖洪水位影响.结果表明,以30、60、90日为控制时段的设计雨量与太湖最高洪水位关联密切,控制时段低于30日的暴雨时程分配对太湖最高洪水位基本没有影响.当设计暴雨中心位于太湖上游区域时,模拟的太湖洪水位具有明显升高的趋势,表明太湖洪水位对上游暴雨更为敏感.分析了1999、2016、2020年暴雨为典型的设计暴雨场景,结果表明,暴雨时程分配对太湖洪水位影响显著,主雨峰位于暴雨后期的设计暴雨可以造成更高的太湖洪水位.从太湖防洪安全考虑,采用30、60、90日为控制时段,暴雨中心位于上游,且雨峰位于暴雨过程后期的设计暴雨推求太湖洪水位是合适的.建议将2016、2020年暴雨过程列入太湖设计暴雨计算的备选典型,并作进一步分析论证.  相似文献   

10.
The Ballinderry River, Co. Tyrone (SAC), is one of only six rivers in Northern Ireland that still supports a population of the globally endangered freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera. Fewer than 1000 individuals still exist in the river; without intervention it is predicted the Ballinderry pearl mussel will be extinct by 2098. This paper aims to identify key catchment pressures on remaining mussel stocks and prioritise tributaries within the catchment for remediation work to ensure effective targeting of limited resources. A combination of redox assessment, river surveys and SCIMAP modelling was used to rank tributaries, taking into consideration their size and proximity to the main mussel population at the “sanctuary site”. Diffuse and point sources of sediment were identified within the prioritised catchment. The Tulnacross tributary was selected as the highest priority tributary and has been used in a pilot remediation study. A number of different hard and soft engineering techniques have been used for remediation as well as replacing cattle drinkers with pasture pumps and fencing alongside the river. Initial observations suggest river substrate is cleaner. This study is an example of how to tackle problems within a large-scale catchment with limited resources with participation of local stakeholders and riparian landowners.  相似文献   

11.
John Houston 《水文研究》2002,16(15):3019-3035
The Chacarilla fan in the Atacama Desert is one of several formed in the Late Miocene at the foot of the Pre‐Andean Cordillera overlying the large, complex, Pampa Tamarugal aquifer contained in the continental clastic sediments of the fore‐arc basin. The Pampa Tamarugal aquifer is a strategic source of water for northern Chile but there is continuing doubt over the resource magnitude and recharge. During January 2000 a 1 in 4 year storm in the Andes delivered a 34 million m3 flash flood to the fan apex where c. 70% percolated to the underlying aquifers. Groundwater recharge through the fan is calculated to be a minimum of 200 l/s or 6% of the long‐term catchment rainfall. These figures are supported by hydrochemical data that suggest that recharge may be 9% of long‐term rainfall. Isotopic data suggest groundwater less than 50 years old is transmitted westward through the permeable sheetflood sediments of the fan overlying the main aquifer. Analysis of this and other events shows that the hydrological system is non‐linear with positive feedback. The magnitude of groundwater recharge is dependent on climatic variations, antecedent soil moisture storage and changes in channel characteristics. Long‐term declines in groundwater level may partly result from climatic fluctuations and the causes of such fluctuations are discussed. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
Nature‐based approaches to flood risk management are increasing in popularity. Evidence for the effectiveness at the catchment scale of such spatially distributed upstream measures is inconclusive. However, it also remains an open question whether, under certain conditions, the individual impacts of a collection of flood mitigation interventions could combine to produce a detrimental effect on runoff response. A modelling framework is presented for evaluation of the impacts of hillslope and in‐channel natural flood management interventions. It couples an existing semidistributed hydrological model with a new, spatially explicit, hydraulic channel network routing model. The model is applied to assess a potential flood mitigation scheme in an agricultural catchment in North Yorkshire, United Kingdom, comprising various configurations of a single variety of in‐channel feature. The hydrological model is used to generate subsurface and surface fluxes for a flood event in 2012. The network routing model is then applied to evaluate the response to the addition of up to 59 features. Additional channel and floodplain storage of approximately 70,000 m3 is seen with a reduction of around 11% in peak discharge. Although this might be sufficient to reduce flooding in moderate events, it is inadequate to prevent flooding in the double‐peaked storm of the magnitude that caused damage within the catchment in 2012. Some strategies using features specific to this catchment are suggested in order to improve the attenuation that could be achieved by applying a nature‐based approach.  相似文献   

13.
Methods for estimating the magnitude of extreme floods are reviewed. A method which combines a probabilistic storm transposition technique with a physically-based distributed rainfallrunoff model is described. Synthetic storms with detailed spatial and temporal distributions are generated and applied to the calibrated model of the Brue river basin, U.K. (area 135 km2). The variability of catchment response due to storm characteristics (storm area, storm duration, storm movement, storm shape and within storm variation) and initial catchment wetness conditions is investigated. A probabilistic approach to estimating the return periods of extreme catchment responses is suggested.  相似文献   

14.
The dry wadis ‘ephemeral channel’ constituting the main tributaries to the Nile River in Kom Ombo are structurally and tectonically controlled and exhibit complex drainage pattern. This complicated drainage pattern is inherited from the morpho‐tectonic evolution of the ancestral Nile River (‘Protonile’), which drained the Eastern Desert during the Middle Pleistocene. A digital elevation model derived from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission data is used to delineate the contemporary drainage networks and their catchments. Satellite images acquired during a flash flood event were used to validate the delineated watershed divides and flow pathways, particularly where the courses of dry wadis are interlocked. Currently, the westward flow of Wadi Abu‐Suberah is derived from a small area in the Eastern Desert, as the palaeo‐upper reaches of this wadi were captured due to tectonic movements along NW/SE and N/S faults by wadis in the Kharit and Elewa areas. The influence of these tectonic movements on groundwater distribution is also shown where the deep Nubian aquifer discharges its water into the Quaternary aquifer through fault planes. The northward flowing ‘Protonile’ main course has tectonically shifted from the Gallaba plain in the Western Desert, eastward to the current Nile River course. This shift has produced several cut‐off segments of the palaeo‐tributary drainage that was originally flowing westward towards the old ‘Protonile’ main course in the Gallaba plain. However, these segments have reversed their surface run‐off flow directions eastward towards the current Nile course; they could include potential groundwater resources, as their alluvium may be still recharged by the Nile River. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Upland agricultural land management activities such as grazing, vegetation burning, and bare ground restoration impact hydrological elements of headwater catchments, many of which may be important for downstream flood peaks (e.g., overland flow and soil water storage). However, there is poor understanding of how these management practices affect river flow peaks during high magnitude rainfall events. Using the distributed TOPMODEL, spatial configurations of land management were modelled to predict flood response in an upland catchment, which contains different regions operating subsidized agricultural stewardship schemes. Heavy grazing leading to soil compaction and loss of vegetation cover in stewardship regions covering 79.8% of the catchment gave a 42‐min earlier flow peak, which was 82.2% higher (under a 1‐hr 15‐mm storm) than the current simulated hydrograph. Light grazing over the same regions of the catchment had much less influence on river flow peaks (18 min earlier and 32.9% increase). Rotational burning (covering 8.8% of the catchment), most of which is located in the headwater areas, increased the peak by 3.2% in the same rainfall event. Vegetation restoration with either Eriophorum or Sphagnum (higher density) in bare areas (5.8%) of the catchment provided a reduction of flood peak (3.9% and 5.2% in the 15‐mm storm event), whereas the same total area revegetated with Sphagnum in riparian regions delivered a much larger decrease (15.0%) in river flow peaks. We show that changes of vegetation cover in highly sensitive areas (e.g., near‐stream zones) generate large impacts on flood peaks. Thus, it is possible to design spatially distributed management systems for upland catchments, which reduce flood peaks while at the same time ensuring economic viability for upland farmers.  相似文献   

16.
Water scarcity and climatic variability in the Mediterranean region have traditionally required the construction of dams to guarantee water supply for irrigation, industrial and urban uses and hydropower production. Reservoirs affect the hydrology of the river downstream, but the magnitude and persistence of these effects are still poorly unknown. Understanding the magnitude of these effects is the objective of this paper, in which we analyse the flow regimes of twelve rivers located in the NW Mediterranean region. Different temporal scales (daily, monthly and annual) are used for the analysis and also to estimate flow variables associated with flow magnitude, frequency, duration and variability. It is shown that dams alter the hydrological regime of most of the studied rivers, with special influence on monthly flows and flood magnitude and frequency. The most altered rivers (Muga and Siurana, NE Iberian Peninsula) experience a complete overturn in their flow regime with, for instance, flood reduction reaching up to 76% for the 2‐year flood event. Other rivers showed lower changes in hydrology (e.g. Orb and Têt). Annual runoff showed a pattern of decrease in all the studied rivers (regulated and non‐regulated) indicating that besides dams (i.e. reservoir evaporation), other factors likely affect water yield. A general recovery downstream from dams is also observed at all temporal scales, mainly because of the inflow from tributaries. Although dams have a clear impact on the hydrology of Mediterranean rivers, water withdrawals and diversions for irrigation and other consumptive uses also affected the hydrological patterns. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
A rising exposure to flood risk is a predicted consequence of increased development in vulnerable areas and an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events due to climate change. In the face of this challenge, a continued reliance on engineered at‐a‐point flood defences is seen as both unrealistic and undesirable. The contribution of ‘soft engineering’ solutions (e.g. riparian forests, wood in rivers) to integrated, catchment scale flood risk management has been demonstrated at small scales but not larger ones. In this study we use reduced complexity hydrological modelling to analyse the effects of land use and channel changes resulting from river restoration upon flood flows at the catchment scale. Results show short sections of river‐floodplain restoration using engineered logjams, typical of many current restoration schemes, have highly variable impacts on catchment‐scale flood peak magnitude and so need to be used with caution as a flood management solution. Forested floodplains have a more general impact upon flood hydrology, with areas in the middle and upper catchment tending to show reductions in peak magnitude at the catchment outflow. The most promising restoration scenarios for flood risk management are for riparian forest restoration at the sub‐catchment scale, representing 20–40% of the total catchment area, where reductions in peak magnitude of up to 19% are observed through de‐synchronization of the timings of sub‐catchment flood waves. Sub‐catchment floodplain forest restoration over 10–15% of total catchment area can lead to reductions in peak magnitude of 6% at 25 years post‐restoration. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
The role of bedrock groundwater in rainfall–runoff processes is poorly understood. Hydrometric, tracer and subsurface water potential observations were conducted to study the role of bedrock groundwater and subsurface flow in the rainfall–runoff process in a small headwater catchment in Shiranui, Kumamoto prefecture, south‐west Japan. The catchment bedrock consists of a strongly weathered, fractured andesite layer and a relatively fresh continuous layer. Major chemical constituents and stable isotopic ratios of δ18O and δD were analysed for spring water, rainwater, soil water and bedrock groundwater. Temporal and spatial variation in SiO2 showed that stream flow under the base flow condition was maintained by bedrock groundwater. Time series of three components of the rainstorm hydrograph (rainwater, soil water and bedrock groundwater) separated by end member mixing analysis showed that each component fluctuated during rainstorm, and their patterns and magnitudes differed between events. During a typical mid‐magnitude storm event, a delayed secondary runoff peak with 1·0 l s−1 was caused by increase in the bedrock groundwater component, whereas during a large rainstorm event the bedrock groundwater component increased to ≈ 2·5 l s−1. This research shows that the contribution of bedrock groundwater and soil water depends strongly on the location of the groundwater table, i.e. whether or not it rises above the soil–bedrock interface. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Comparatively little is known about the hydrology of desert flash-floods despite the extent of the world's drylands. There is even less known about their sedimentary behaviour and particularly about the movement of coarse material as bedload. The results of an intense field monitoring programme carried out on an ephemeral gravel-bed stream in the northern Negev Desert are presented. In this semi-arid setting, flow duration analysis indicates that the channel is hydrologically active for 2% of the time, or about seven days per year, and that overbank flow can be expected for only 0·03% of the time—about three hours per year. Multipeaked flood hydrographs are the norm, reflecting many factors including the arrival of separate slugs of discharge from contributing subcatchments. The passage of the initial flood bore is surprisingly slow, but the rising limb of the flood hydrograph is rapid with a median time of rise of 10 minutes, in keeping with expected flash-flood behaviour. Bedload flux is high, averaging 2·67 kg s−1 m−1 during the period that the channel carries flow. This gives very high bedload sediment yield despite the infrequent and short duration of flood flows and matches the high yield of suspended sediment. The relationship between bedload flux and boundary shear stress is simple, in contrast with perennial gravel-bed streams, and the exponent of the log–log relationship is 1·52. Of great value is that the behaviour of the Nahal Eshtemoa corroborates a pattern established by the authors previously in a smaller tributary stream. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Data collected in 4 years of field observations were used in conjunction with continuous simulation models to study, at the small‐basin scale, the water balance of a closed catchment‐lake system in a semi‐arid Mediterranean environment. The open water evaporation was computed with the Penman equation, using the data set collected in the middle of the lake. The surface runoff was partly measured at the main tributary and partly simulated using a distributed, catchment, hydrological model, calibrated with the observed discharge. The simplified structure of the developed modelling mainly concerns soil moisture dynamics and bedrock hydraulics, whereas the flow components are physically based. The calibration produced high efficiency coefficients and showed that surface runoff is greatly affected by soil water percolation into fractured bedrock. The bedrock reduces the storm‐flow peaks and the interflow and has important multi‐year effects on the annual runoff coefficients. The net subsurface outflow from the lake was calculated as the residual of the lake water balance. It was almost constant in the dry seasons and increased in the wet seasons, because of the moistening of the unsaturated soil. During the years of observation, rainfall 30% higher than average caused abundant runoff and a continuous rise in the lake water levels. The analysis allows to predict that, in years with lower than the average rainfall, runoff will be drastically reduced and will not be able to compensate for negative balance between precipitation and lake evaporation. Such highly unsteady situations, with great fluctuations in lake levels, are typical of closed catchment‐lake systems in the semi‐arid Mediterranean environment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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