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1.
A modified formula of the cumulative frequency-magnitude relation has been formulated and tested in a previous paper by the authors of this study. Based on the modified relationship, the following reoccurrence formulas have been obtained.
  1. For the ‘T-years period’ larger earthquake magnitude,M T $$M_T = \frac{1}{{A_3 }}ln\frac{{A_2 }}{{(1/T) + A_1 }}.$$
  2. For the value of the maximum earthquake magnitude, which is exceeded with probabilityP inT-years period,M PT $$M_{PT} = \frac{{ln(A_2 .T)}}{{A_3 }} - \frac{{ln[A_1 .T - ln(1 - P)]}}{{A_3 }}.$$
  3. For the probability of occurrence of an earthquake of magnitudeM in aT-years period,P MT $$P_{MT} = 1 - \exp [ - T[ - A_1 + A_2 \exp ( - A_3 M)]].$$
The above formulas provide estimates of the probability of reoccurrence of the largest earthquake events which are significantly more realistic than those based on the Gutenberg-Richter relationships; at least for numerous tested earthquake samples from the major area of Greece.  相似文献   

2.
Microearthquake digital data collected at Campi Flegrei during the recent (1982–1985) ground uplift episode have been analyzed in order to infer source and medium seismic properties. The main results obtained from these analyses are:
  1. Hypocenter distribution and the size of the seismic zone do not change with time and do not depend on the ground uplift rate. Events occurred clustered in time with no simple causal relations between the cluster occurrences and their energy.
  2. Anelastic attenuation does not depend strongly on frequency, showing a constant pattern at high frequencies. The observed values of low and high frequency attenuation, due to the short source receiver distances, do not seriously affect the spectral content of signals radiated by the sources.
  3. A constant Brune stress drop pattern (～4–5 bars) as a function of seismic moment is observed. This indicates that the manner of fracturing is almost independent on magnitude of earthquakes (hypothesis of self-similarity (Aki, 1967)). Seismic processes in a prefractured medium can explain the observed small stress drop values.
  4. Focal mechanisms from moment tensor estimates show that radiation patterns are mostly well interpreted in terms of double couple source models.
  5. The scaling of peak ground motion parameters (A max andV max vs seismic moment) can be explained by an ω2 source model (constant stress drop) multiplied by an exponential function with a small decay parameter, which takes into account the measured attenuation.
These results support the hypothesis of earthquakes generated by simple shear fractures along prefractured structures as a response to changes in the stress field due to the ground deformation.  相似文献   

3.
In this paper, the relations of the changes of earth resistivity (ρ) s recorded at 100 geoelectrical stations in 31 earthquakes occurred in the continent of China, to the active faults (active abyssal faults or badly active faults near the focal zone) and the causative stress fields are discussed and the following conclusions are obtained:
  1. On the condition that a station is near the active fault and in the direction of the causative stress (DCS) of an earthquake (EQ), the immediate variation ofρ s to the earthquake (called “immediate variation” for short) could be recorded generally at the station.
  2. The active fault which lies between a station and the epicenter of an earthquake seems to play a role in “obstructing” the recording of the imminent variation when the strike of the fault is close to the DCS of the earthquake. When that is parrallel with the DCS the “obstructing” function of the fault is strongest; when normal with the DCS, weakest.
The regularity seems to have the universality for moderate earthquakes and strong ones occurred in the continent of China.  相似文献   

4.
The Ridracoli Dam has been operating since 1981. Around the reservoir ISMES installed and operated for 10 years a seismic network, now reduced to a 3-D station. Earthquakes were recorded with completeness from magnitude 0.8 onwards. In the same period, all the parameters relevant to the dam and the environment were measured. This provided a complete data base for RIS studies, unique in its kind in Italy. The main findings of the analyses performed are the following:
  1. The filling of the reservoir has not influenced the seismicity of the area for most significant events (M L>3.5).
  2. Lesser seismicity around the reservoir seems to be correlated with water level in the reservoir, but also shows to be dependent on regional seismicity.
  3. b value shows a slight increase with time. This may indicate an increase in rock fracturing, which is known to precede the disappearing of Type II RIS.
  相似文献   

5.
Research on the principle and methodology of seismic zonation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Based on the cognizance of the temporal-spatial inhomogeneity of seismicity in North China, adopting the results of earthquake prediction in the past two decades and the currently used methods of seismic hazard analysis, and after some zonation trials in North China, some improvements on the zonation principle and methodology were made:
  1. Seismic zones were taken as statistic units where seismicity parameters were obtained. Tendency analysis was introduced. Earthquake annual average occurrence rates were estimated corresponding to the seismicity level in the future period;
  2. Average annual earthquake occurrence rates for a given magnitude interval of a specific seismic zone were assigned to potential sources considering the relative risk level among these sources. Thus, the risk of great earthquakes can be estimated.
  3. The probabilistic spatial distribution function under the condition of magnitude interval was suggested to reflect the temporal and spatial inhomogeneity of seismicity.
  4. An orientation function in the seismic hazard analysis model was adopted, which reflects the real condition of earthquake foci in China.
  相似文献   

6.
A data set of nineteen, mainly shallow, moderate to large earthquakes, which occurred in the Aegean and the surrounding area, has been used to derive empirical relations for kinematic fault parameters. Thus the relations between seismic momentM 0 and magnitudeM s andm b and betweenM 0 andM s and fault dimensionsS andL have been determined. From these relations and theoretical ones it was deduced that earthquakes in the Aegean and the surrounding events, chiefly interplate, are characterized by low average stress drop values. Values of ranging from 1 to 30 bar are consistent with the data. It was also found that, in general terms, most of the data obey the geometrical similarity conditionL=2w, whereL is the fault length measured along the strike andw is its width measured along the dip. For strike-slip faults, however, the conditionL=4w seems to hold.  相似文献   

7.
We estimate the corner frequencies of 20 crustal seismic events from mainshock–aftershock sequences in different tectonic environments (mainshocks 5.7 < M W < 7.6) using the well-established seismic coda ratio technique (Mayeda et al. in Geophys Res Lett 34:L11303, 2007; Mayeda and Malagnini in Geophys Res Lett, 2010), which provides optimal stability and does not require path or site corrections. For each sequence, we assumed the Brune source model and estimated all the events’ corner frequencies and associated apparent stresses following the MDAC spectral formulation of Walter and Taylor (A revised magnitude and distance amplitude correction (MDAC2) procedure for regional seismic discriminants, 2001), which allows for the possibility of non-self-similar source scaling. Within each sequence, we observe a systematic deviation from the self-similar \( M_{0} \propto \mathop f\nolimits_{\text{c}}^{ - 3} \) line, all data being rather compatible with \( M_{0} \propto \mathop f\nolimits_{\text{c}}^{ - (3 + \varepsilon )} \) , where ε > 0 (Kanamori and Rivera in Bull Seismol Soc Am 94:314–319, 2004). The deviation from a strict self-similar behavior within each earthquake sequence of our collection is indicated by a systematic increase in the estimated average static stress drop and apparent stress with increasing seismic moment (moment magnitude). Our favored physical interpretation for the increased apparent stress with earthquake size is a progressive frictional weakening for increasing seismic slip, in agreement with recent results obtained in laboratory experiments performed on state-of-the-art apparatuses at slip rates of the order of 1 m/s or larger. At smaller magnitudes (M W < 5.5), the overall data set is characterized by a variability in apparent stress of almost three orders of magnitude, mostly from the scatter observed in strike-slip sequences. Larger events (M W > 5.5) show much less variability: about one order of magnitude. It appears that the apparent stress (and static stress drop) does not grow indefinitely at larger magnitudes: for example, in the case of the Chi–Chi sequence (the best sampled sequence between M W 5 and 6.5), some roughly constant stress parameters characterize earthquakes larger than M W ~ 5.5. A representative fault slip for M W 5.5 is a few tens of centimeters (e.g., Ide and Takeo in J Geophys Res 102:27379–27391, 1997), which corresponds to the slip amount at which effective lubrication is observed, according to recent laboratory friction experiments performed at seismic slip velocities (V ~ 1 m/s) and normal stresses representative of crustal depths (Di Toro et al. in Nature in press, 2011, and references therein). If the observed deviation from self-similar scaling is explained in terms of an asymptotic increase in apparent stress (Malagnini et al. in Pure Appl Geophys, 2014, this volume), which is directly related to dynamic stress drop on the fault, one interpretation is that for a seismic slip of a few tens of centimeters (M W ~ 5.5) or larger, a fully lubricated frictional state may be asymptotically approached.  相似文献   

8.
震源参数之间的定量关系   总被引：37，自引：7，他引：37       下载免费PDF全文
陈培善  白彤霞 《地震学报》1991,13(4):401-411
本文根据建立在平均二维破裂模式基础上的地震定标律,导出了地震矩 M0与各常用震级之间（1gM0-MS,ML,mb）,各种震级之间（Ms-ML,Ms-mb,ML-mb）,各震源参数之间（断层长度IgL,断层面积 lgS,平均错距 lgD-Ms,拐角频率 1gfc-ML）的各种常用的关系式.利用这些关系式,由一个震级值就可以估算出一系列震源参数.本文还求出了平均破裂速度 Vr=2.65km/s,总破裂时间 T（s）=0.5L（km）,平均位错速度 D（t）=11.4m/s.用矩震级 Mw 度量地震的大小,有四个优点:（1）地震矩反映了形变规模的大小,因此是度量地震大小的最佳物理量.（2）它是一个绝对力学标度,对任何大小地震都有意义,可测量,且不产生饱和问题.（3）它和我们已熟悉的震级标度可衔接.（4）它是一个均匀的震级标度,适用于宽尺度的地震统计.因此,Mw 是一种值得推广的震级标度.   相似文献   

9.
We have employed 10 digital records and computed the spectral magnitude and the seismic radiated energy for 18 large earthquakes (M s≥6) occurred in Eur-asian belt during 1986–1989. The nine digital stations (CD-SN) distribute all over China and one in Germany. The spectral magnitudes of various period have different stability among stations. The stability is better for maximum spectral magnitudemi and seismic radiated energyE, their differences among stations are smaller, especially for the stations where the ray path main penetrates the low mantle. But the stability of corner period is usually not good. The relation between seismic radiated energy and seismic moment magnitudeM w is lg (E)=1.5Mw+c, wherec is a constant. The maximum spectral magnitudemi=M w+0.1, it is consistant with theoretical prediction. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 418–426, 1993. This work supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Bonn, F. R. Germany. The support is grateful acknowledge.  相似文献   

10.
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11.
Around 700 reported precursors of about 350 earthquakes, including the negative observations, have been compiled in 11 categories with 31 subdivisions. The data base is subjected to an initial sorting and screening by imposing three restrictions on the ranges of main shock magnitude (M≥4.0), precursory time (t≤20 years), and the epicentral distance of observation points (X m≤4.100.3M ). Of the 31 subcategories of precursory phenomena, 18 with 9 data points or more are independently studied by regressing their precursory times against magnitude. The preliminary results tend to classify the precursors into three groups:
  1. The precursors which show weak or no correlation between time and the magnitude of the eventual main shock. Examples of this group are foreshocks and precursory tilt.
  2. The precursors which show clear scaling with magnitude. These include seismic velocity ratio (V p/Vs), travel time delay, duration of seismic quiescence, and, to some degree, the variation ofb-value, and anomalous seismicity.
  3. The precursors which display clustering of precursory times around a mean value, which differs for different precursors from a few hours to a few years. Examples include the conductivity rate, geoelectric current and potential, strain, water well level, geochemical anomalies, change of focal mechanism, and the enhancement of seismicity reported only for larger earthquakes. Some of the precursors in this category, such as leveling changes and the occurrence of microseismicity, show bimodal patterns of precursory times and may partially be coseismic.
In addition, each category with a sufficient number of reported estimates of distance and signal amplitude is subjected to multiple linear regression. The usefulness of these regressions at this stage appears to be limited to specifying which of the parameters shows a more significant correlation. Standard deviations of residuals of precursory time against magnitude are generally reduced when observation distance enters as a second independent variable. The effect is more pronounced for water well level and conductivity rate changes. While a substantial portion of the data seem to suffer from personal bias, hence should be regarded as noise, the observations of a number of strain sensitive phenomena such as strain, water well level, and conductivity rate changes, appear to be internally more consistent. For instance, their precursory times suggest a scaling relationship with the strain energy surface density associated with the main shock. The scaling is not identical for all three phenomena so that they may constitute the imminent, short- and intermediate-term manifestation of the same process, i.e. strain loading, respectively.  相似文献   

12.
We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on morphostructural analysis, pattern recognition, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. The USLE stands for an empirical relationship log10N(M, L)?=?A?+?B·(5 – M)?+?C·log10L, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within a seismically prone area of linear dimension L. We use parameters A, B, and C of USLE to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at seismically prone nodes of the morphostructural scheme of the region under study, then map the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macro-seismic intensity). After a rigorous verification against the available seismic evidences in the past (usually, the observed instrumental PGA or the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures (e.g., those based on census of population, buildings inventory). The methodology of seismic hazard and risk assessment is illustrated by application to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea.  相似文献   

13.
This paper summarizes seismic and rockburst research activities related to South African deep-level gold mines over the period 1983 to 1987. It covers continued research in directions that were considered in the Seismicity in Mines Symposium in 1982 as well as in several new areas of research. Five broad areas are identified:
  1. Seismic data acquisition and processing. Improved seismic systems are being developed. Velocity models related to known stratigraphy are being used to provide more accurate estimates of seismic locations.
  2. Source mechanisms and near-source effects on seismic wave transmission. This work provides fundamental insights into seismicity and rock behaviour and is being applied in rockburst prediction research.
  3. Mine layouts. Excess shear stress is being investigated as a design parameter by analyzing mining configurations and resultant seismicity. In addition, better understanding of the behaviour of highly stressed remnants and pillars is also being obtained from seismic studies.
  4. Strong ground motion studies. Evaluation of the performance of support elements, including recently developed backfill materials, requires better knowledge of ground motion around underground excavations during seismic events and rockbursts.
  5. Rockburst prediction and control. Rockburst prediction research continues with some reported success. In addition, the feasibility of actively triggering fault slip or conditioning the rock ahead of the stope face to ameliorate the rockburst hazard is currently being investigated.
  相似文献   

14.
This paper reports a study of the Tolud earthquake sequence; the sequence was a burst of shallow seismicity between November 28 and December 7, 2012; it accompanied the initial phase in the Tolbachik Fissure Eruption of 2012?2013. The largest earthquake (the Tolud earthquake of November 30, 2012, to be referred to as the Tolud Earthquake in what follows, with KS = 11.3, ML = 4.9, MC = 5.4, and MW = 4.8) is one of the five larger seismic events that have been recorded at depths shallower than 10 km beneath the entire Klyuchevskoi Volcanic Cluster in 1961?2015. It was found that the Tolud earthquake sequence was the foreshock–aftershock process of the Tolud Earthquake. This is one of the larger seismicity episodes ever to have occurred in the volcanic areas of Kamchatka. Data of the Kamchatka seismic stations were used to compute some parameters for the Tolud Earthquake and its largest (ML = 4.3) aftershock; the parameters include the source parameters and mechanisms, and the moment magnitudes, since no information on these is available at the world seismological data centers. The focal mechanisms for the Tolud Earthquake and for its aftershock are consistent with seismic ruptures at a tension fault in the rift zone. Instrumental data were used to estimate the intensity of shaking due to the Tolud Earthquake. We discuss the sequence of events that was a signature of the time-dependent seismic and volcanic activity that took place in the Tolbachik zone in late November 2012 and terminated in the Tolud burst of seismicity. Based on the current ideas of the tectonics and magma sources for the Tolbachik volcanic zone, we discuss possible causes of these earthquakes.  相似文献   

15.
We apply the Bakun and Wentworth (Bull Seism Soc Am 87:1502–1521, 1997) method to determine the location and magnitude of earthquakes occurred in Central Asia using MSK-64 intensity assignments. The attenuation model previously derived and validated by Bindi et al. (Geophys J Int, 2013) is used to analyse 21 earthquakes that occurred over the period 1885–1964, and the estimated locations and magnitudes are compared to values available in literature. Bootstrap analyses are performed to estimate the confidence intervals of the intensity magnitudes, as well as to quantify the location uncertainty. The analyses of seven significant earthquakes for the hazard assessment are presented in detail, including three large historical earthquakes that struck the northern Tien-Shan between the end of the nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth centuries: the 1887, M 7.3 Verny, the 1889, M 8.3 Chilik and the 1911, M 8.2 Kemin earthquakes. Regarding the 1911, Kemin earthquake the magnitude values estimated from intensity data are lower (i.e. MILH?=?7.8 and MIW?=?7.6 considering surface wave and moment magnitude, respectively) than the value M?=?8.2 listed in the considered catalog. These values are more in agreement with the value M S?=?7.8 revised by Abe and Noguchi (Phys Earth Planet In, 33:1–11, 1983b) for the surface wave magnitude. For the Kemin earthquake, the distribution of the bootstrap solutions for the intensity centre reveal two minima, indicating that the distribution of intensity assignments do not constrain a unique solution. This is in agreement with the complex source rupture history of the Kemin earthquake, which involved several fault segments with different strike orientations, dipping angles and focal mechanisms (e.g. Delvaux et al. in Russ Geol Geophys 42:1167–1177, 2001; Arrowsmith et al. in Eos Trans Am Geophys Union 86(52), 2005). Two possible locations for the intensity centre are obtained. The first is located on the easternmost sub-faults (i.e. the Aksu and Chon-Aksu segments), where most of the seismic moment was released (Arrowsmith et al. in Eos Trans Am Geophys Union 86(52), 2005). The second location is located on the westernmost sub-faults (i.e. the Dzhil'-Aryk segment), close to the intensity centre location obtained for the 1938, M 6.9 Chu-Kemin earthquake (MILH?=?6.9 and MIW?=?6.8).  相似文献   

16.
We extend to the case of intermediate and deep earthquakes the mantle magnitude developed for shallow shocks byokal andTalandier (1989). Specifically, from the measurement of the spectral amplitude of Rayleigh waves at a single station, we obtain a mantle magnitude,M m, theoretically related to the seismic moment of the event through $$M_m = \log _{10} M_0 - 20.$$ The computation ofM minvolves two corrections. The distance correction is the same as for shallow shocks. For the purpose of computing the frequency-dependent source correction, we define three depth windows: Intermediate (A) (75 to 200 km); Intermediate (B) (200–400 km) and Deep (over 400 km). In each window, the source correctionC S is modeled by a cubic spline of log10 T. Analysis of a dataset of 200 measurements (mostly from GEOSCOPE stations) shows that the seismic moment of the earthquakes is recovered with a standard deviation of 0.23 units of magnitude, and a mean bias of only 0.14 unit. These figures are basically similar to those for shallow events. Our method successfully recognizes truly large deep events, such as the 1970 Colombia shock, and errors due to the potential misclassification of events into the wrong depth window are minimal.  相似文献   

17.
A reliable and homogenized earthquake catalogue is essential for seismic hazard assessment in any area. This article describes the compilation and processing of an updated earthquake catalogue for Pakistan. The earthquake catalogue compiled in this study for the region (quadrangle bounded by the geographical limits 40–83° N and 20–40° E) includes 36,563 earthquake events, which are reported as 4.0–8.3 moment magnitude (MW) and span from 25 AD to 2016. Relationships are developed between the moment magnitude and body, and surface wave magnitude scales to unify the catalogue in terms of magnitude MW. The catalogue includes earthquakes from Pakistan and neighbouring countries to minimize the effects of geopolitical boundaries in seismic hazard assessment studies. Earthquakes reported by local and international agencies as well as individual catalogues are included. The proposed catalogue is further used to obtain magnitude of completeness after removal of dependent events by using four different algorithms. Finally, seismicity parameters of the seismic sources are reported, and recommendations are made for seismic hazard assessment studies in Pakistan.  相似文献   

18.
The paper considers the Argun earthquake of July 22, 2011 (M w = 4.5), which occurred in the Argun River valley in a low-seismicity territory in China. The focal parameters of the earthquake (depth of the hypocenter, moment magnitude, scalar seismic moment, and focal mechanism) were determined by calculating the seismic moment tensor from the amplitude spectra of surface waves and the data on the signs of the first arrivals of body waves at regional stations. The solution of the focal mechanism makes it possible to assume a relationship between the earthquake focus and a fault with a northeastern strike bordering the southeastern side of the Argun Basin (in Chinese territory). The Argun earthquake was felt in Russia with an intensity of II–III to V at the epicentral distances up to 255 km. The intensity of shaking did not exceed values suggested by new GSZ-2012 and GSZ-2014 seismic zoning maps of Russian territory. Nevertheless, the question on the possible occurrence of stronger earthquakes in the studied region remains open.  相似文献   

19.
Geomagnetic solar and lunar daily variationsS andL, at Alibag, India are derived, by the well-known Chapman-Miller method, from the series of homogeneous mean hourly magnetic data of the years 1932 to 1972. The data for all the three elements — declinationD and horizontal and vertical intensitiesH andZ — are analysed, by dividing the data suitably for a study of the seasonal variations, the effect of the changes in the solar and magnetic activities onS andL, the oceanic dynamo contribution toL, and their interactions with each other. The main results are as follows.
  1. ForS the daily pattern and its seasonal progression conform to the type expected from a northern-hemisphere station. On the other hand, the amplitudes of all the four harmonics ofL systematically have higher values in winter, and inD andZ the harmonics show large phase differences between summer and winter. The pattern ofL in winter suggests that the lunar current system consists of a single set of vortices in the summer hemisphere rather than the conventional vortices, one set in each of the hemispheres.
  2. Solar-cycle modulation on the solar ranges as well as on the amplitudes of the first three harmonics ofS is greater than that expected solely from the increase in E-region conductivity, whereas the corresponding modulation onL is comparable to that on the E-region conductivity.
  3. With increasing magnetic activity the first harmonic ofS shows an increase, and the first three harmonics ofL indicate a general decrease, in amplitude.
  4. Of the variability inS 96%, but inL only 32%, is found to be accounted for by the combined effect of the variations in the solar and magnetic activities.
  相似文献   

20.
The results of two millennia of earthquake documentation, a few decades of macroseismic and instrumental routine seismological observations and five months of microearthquake monitoring, are used to estimate the rate of seismic activity of the Dead Sea fault. It is found that these vastly diverse data which combine long- and short-term tectonic processes, are in good accord with the formula:
log10N=2.54 ? 0.86ML
where N is the annual number of events of local magnitude ML or greater. If this equation is extrapolated to ca. 2000 B.C., it yields a Richter magnitude Ms = 7 for the event of Sodom and Gomorrah which is believed to be associated with the strongest earthquake in the region during historical times.Comparing our findings with the results of other investigators in Turkey, Greece, Aegean Sea and Iran, we note that the b values along the Syrian-African rift zone (0.78–0.86) are smaller than those in Greece and its surrounding seas (0.94–1.16).  相似文献   

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