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1.
Tom Wilson 《The Australian geographer》2015,46(1):91-111
Concern about rapid population growth in Australia's large cities and slower growth in many non-metropolitan areas has stimulated a range of government policies attempting to lift non-metropolitan growth rates. However, there is relatively little research on which to base these policies. It would be helpful to understand more about the consequences of current demographic trends continuing and the effects of alternative migration patterns. This paper presents sub-national population projections for Australia over the horizon 2011–2041, basing the projections on more socially meaningful Remoteness Areas instead of common statistical geographies. Three sets of projections were generated: a Current Direction scenario in which recent demographic trends are maintained, a Regional Immigration scenario in which more immigrants settle in regional and remote areas, and a Metro Exodus scenario in which there is increased internal migration from metropolitan to non-metropolitan areas. The future of Australia's population geography is shown to be one of spatially varying growth and population ageing, and continued metropolitanisation. In regional areas rapid population ageing will lower natural increase rates and thus reduce overall growth, resulting in a falling share of the national population. Policy measures attempting to increase the share of growth in regional areas will struggle against natural demographic forces operating in the opposite direction. 相似文献
2.
This paper reviews the progress of population geography in China since the 1980s. The review results suggest that contrary to the common perception of its invisibility and marginalized status in the field, tremendous progress has been made in population geography in China since the 1980s. Population geographers have made significant contribution to the understanding of a wide range of population issues from geographical perspectives, including migration, urbanization, population distribution, the relationships between population, environment and resources, aging, marriage patterns, and migrants’ crimes, although such contribution often did not appear in the geographical circle. Furthermore, population geographers have played an indispensable role in revitalizing population studies in China and forging its links to human geography, occupying an important position in this multi-disciplinary field. Population geographers’ contribution to the areas of migration and urbanization research has been particularly significant, reflected in their leading roles in these areas’ research. The paper demonstrates that as latecomers in the field after more than 20 years of isolation, population geographers in China have gone through a process of catching up and increasing engagement with developments in social sciences and increasing interaction with social scientists since the 1980s, and have benefited greatly from it; however, there is a tendency for population geography to be increasingly alienated from the main stream human geography, a phenomenon similar to but not exactly the same as Anglo-American geography in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The paper argues that population geography is only half way in the course to forge the links between population studies and human geography, and it needs to return to geographical sciences to strike a healthy balance between the field of population studies and that of human geography, and promote its further development in a multi-disciplinary field. 相似文献
3.
Interstate migration exchanges in the United States are temporally and spatially transitory. Both the early and mid-1980s exhibited significant fluctuations in the origins and destinations of U.S. migrants, while the late 1980s and early 1990s were even more unstable. Regions once favored by interstate movers such as the West and the South, while remaining attractive, showed evidence of declining favor in the early 1990s. Meanwhile, numerous states in the national interior regained their attractiveness, including several that gained net migrants for the first time in decades. California exhibited a major turnaround in its migration, perturbing the entire U.S. migration system. 相似文献
4.
《地理学报(英文版)》2016,(8)
This paper reviews the progress of population geography in China since the 1980 s. The review results suggest that contrary to the common perception of its invisibility and marginalized status in the field, tremendous progress has been made in population geography in China since the 1980 s. Population geographers have made significant contribution to the understanding of a wide range of population issues from geographical perspectives, including migration, urbanization, population distribution, the relationships between population, environment and resources, aging, marriage patterns, and migrants' crimes, although such contribution often did not appear in the geographical circle. Furthermore, population geographers have played an indispensable role in revitalizing population studies in China and forging its links to human geography, occupying an important position in this multi-disciplinary field. Population geographers' contribution to the areas of migration and urbanization research has been particularly significant, reflected in their leading roles in these areas' research. The paper demonstrates that as latecomers in the field after more than 20 years of isolation, population geographers in China have gone through a process of catching up and increasing engagement with developments in social sciences and increasing interaction with social scientists since the 1980 s, and have benefited greatly from it; however, there is a tendency for population geography to be increasingly alienated from the main stream human geography, a phenomenon similar to but not exactly the same as Anglo-American geography in the late 1990 s and early 2000 s. The paper argues that population geography is only half way in the course to forge the links between population studies and human geography, and it needs to return to geographical sciences to strike a healthy balance between the field of population studies and that of human geography, and promote its further development in a multi-disciplinary field. 相似文献
5.
转型期中国城市内部经历了人口、经济和社会等方面的空间重构, 空间结构变得更加复 杂。中国城市人口郊区化速度在加快, 城市常住户籍人口和外来人口的空间重构存在明显差别, 城市人口空间重构过程的相似性特征减弱而差异性特征增强。对中国城市工业和商业空间重构 的分析表明, 郊区化和离心化力量发挥了重要作用。中国城市社会空间因子与社会形势密切相 关, 社会区类型越来越多样化, 社会区构成则经历了由单一到混杂的变化。20 世纪80 年代初中 国城市内部空间结构模式具有典型的同质性特点, 带有计划经济色彩, 而90 年代末的模式则是 市场经济发展的产物, 异质性特征突出, 而且带有多中心结构特点。 相似文献
6.
转型期中国城市内部空间重构: 特征、模式与机制 总被引：5，自引：4，他引：5
转型期中国城市内部经历了人口、经济和社会等方面的空间重构， 空间结构变得更加复 杂。中国城市人口郊区化速度在加快， 城市常住户籍人口和外来人口的空间重构存在明显差别， 城市人口空间重构过程的相似性特征减弱而差异性特征增强。对中国城市工业和商业空间重构 的分析表明， 郊区化和离心化力量发挥了重要作用。中国城市社会空间因子与社会形势密切相 关， 社会区类型越来越多样化， 社会区构成则经历了由单一到混杂的变化。20 世纪80 年代初中 国城市内部空间结构模式具有典型的同质性特点， 带有计划经济色彩， 而90 年代末的模式则是 市场经济发展的产物， 异质性特征突出， 而且带有多中心结构特点。 相似文献
7.
本文对20世纪80年代以来中国人口地理学的发展进行了全面综述。尽管近年来中国人口地理学在地理学科领域给人留下的是萧条、甚至被边缘化的印象,但从跨学科的角度看,该学科还是取得了巨大进展。人口地理学者在复兴中国的人口学研究中发挥了不可或缺的作用,并在这一跨学科研究领域中占据了重要地位。人口地理学者从地理学的视角出发,在人口迁移流动、城镇化、人口分布、人口与资源和环境之间的关系、老龄化、婚姻模式和移民犯罪等众多人口问题的研究上作出了重要贡献,尤其是在人口迁移流动研究和人口城镇化若干问题的研究中占据着领先地位。中国人口地理学者自20世纪80年代以来与社会科学领域学者间的交流互动不断增加,在促进学科发展的同时,也出现了一种逐渐偏离主流人文地理学的倾向;今后,中国人口地理学应更多地回归地理学领域,在人口学和人文地理学两个领域间寻求健康、平衡的定位,以促进其在跨学科领域中获得进一步发展。 相似文献
8.
Over the last thirty years, nonmetropolitan regions across the United States have experienced volatile population shifts ranging from rapid growth to persistent decline. Several authors have suggested that the age structure of the population may contribute to these population trends. In the 1970s, the older baby boomers were entering labor and housing markets, while the younger boomers were enrolling in nonmetropolitan colleges and universities. By the 1980s, this large cohort was aging into a different stage in the life course. This article examines metropolitan and nonmetropolitan population shifts during the 1970s and 1980s within an age‐cohort framework. Using Public Use Microsample data from 1980 and 1990, the analysis explores relationships between housing market, labor market, place characteristics, and the migration flows of different age cohorts. The analysis focuses on cohort‐specific in‐migration to two regions: New England and the Four Corners states of Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. The results are consistent with a life‐course understanding of migration behavior, especially during the late 1970s, with older cohort shifts directed towards nonmetropolitan destinations and younger cohort shifts more influenced by labor and housing‐market variables. The results further demonstrate a large potential for future nonmetropolitan population growth, yet these growth experiences are likely to be regionally differentiated. These results have important policy implications for nonmetropolitan regions. 相似文献
9.
中国近期农村人口迁移态势研究 总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5
采用第四次、第五次人口普查所获得的人口迁移数据,分析了中国农村人口迁移在全国总迁移人口中的地位变化的省际总体特征和个体特征,探讨了各省级单元农村人口迁移在总人口迁移中的地位在20世纪80年代和90年代随时间变化的原因。进一步重点研究了中国农村人口迁移的时空分布格局,分别从省际、省内两个空间尺度,分迁入、迁出两个角度对中国农村人口迁移的规模和流向态势进行了深入分析。 相似文献
10.
辽宁省近44年夏季降水变化及区域特征分析 总被引：9，自引：3，他引：6
利用辽宁省39个气象观测站1961-2004年夏季(6~8月)的降水资料,通过趋势系数、REOF、滑动均方差等方法,对辽宁省近44年夏季降水的时空变化特征进行了分析。结果表明,辽宁夏季降水长期变化呈微弱的减少趋势,以14 mm/10 a的速率减少。20世纪60年代到70年代中期降水以偏多为主,70年代中期到80年代初降水偏少,80年代中期降水偏多,80年代末到90年代初降水偏少,90年代中期降水偏多,90年代后期至今降水一直持续偏少。辽宁夏季降水分为中北部地区及盘锦、抚顺、营口地区、辽河以西部地区、东南部地区3个不同的区域,3个区夏季降水的长期变化趋势都为减少趋势,其中东南部地区降水减少趋势明显大于其他两个区。 相似文献
11.
《Urban geography》2013,34(7):779-802
Based on data from the third (1982), fourth (1990), and fifth (2000) Population Census of China, this research examines the changing patterns of population distribution in the Beijing metropolitan area in the post-reform era. In the mid-1980s, China launched a series of urban land use reforms aimed toward achieving a market economy. A direct impact of these reforms in Beijing was the restructuring of land uses, evidenced by the relocation of central-city residents to the suburbs to make room for commercial development. This residential suburbanization trend emerged during the 1980s and accelerated in the 1990s. Population change rates varied significantly across subdistricts, and variation was much greater in the 1990s than in the 1980s, indicating an increasingly diverse set of growth trajectories across metropolitan Beijing over time. Various population density functions are tested. The population density pattern is best characterized by a monocentric model in 1982, a dual-centered model in 1990, and a seven-centered model in 2000. This transition in Beijing's urban form toward polycentricity is similar to trends in most Western cities. 相似文献
12.
1960-2010 年中国天山山区气候变化区域差异及突变特征 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
利用天山山区32 个气象站点1960-2010 年的逐月平均气温、降水数据和DEM数据等,进行了气候时空变化趋势和突变分析,研究结果表明：山区近50 年来年均气温呈明显的上升趋势,21 世纪以来年均温增加最明显,季节均温与年均温的变化趋势基本一致,冬季均温增加最明显,夏季均温变化最小;山区东段升温趋势最明显,北坡的变化趋势明显于南坡.自20 世纪60 年代以来降水量持续递增,其中80 年代开始更加明显;夏季降水量增加最明显,春季变化最小,山区年降水主要集中在春夏两季;山区气候空间分布呈现“两中心”的特征,东段为“干热”中心,西北部为“暖湿”中心,这两个中心的气候反差有扩大的趋势;山区气温和降水突变不太明显,春夏季气温突变可能发生在20 个世纪90 年代末至21 世纪初;秋冬季气温突变在20 世纪90 年代可能发生过;南坡和东段年均温突变可能发生在1982 年,北坡大致发生在1990 年左右.秋季降水突变发生在20 世纪80 年代末,其他季节不明显,年降水突变发生在80年代末期. 相似文献
13.
Interprovincial Migration,Population Redistribution,and Regional Development in China: 1990 and 2000 Census Comparisons* 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
C. Cindy Fan 《The Professional geographer》2005,57(2):295-311
Until recently, migration has had a limited role to play in China's space economy because of central‐planning logic and mechanisms. Mobility increases and economic restructuring since the 1980s, however, call for new conceptualizations of migration. Using interprovincial migration data from China's 1990 and 2000 censuses, I analyze migration rates, migration effectiveness, population growth, net migration flows, and spatial focusing of migration. The analysis supports the notions that migration is an increasingly effective factor of population redistribution and that it has a strong relationship with regional development. While these relationships have been documented in many other parts of the world, they have been less well addressed in the case of China. Regional divergence in economic development during the 1990s was accompanied by a marked increase in interprovincial migration and sharply concentrated migration flows, especially from relatively poor central and western provinces to the rapidly growing eastern region. These results suggest that migration theories that draw from experiences of capitalist economies may be of increased relevance to China. 相似文献
14.
在全球变暖背景下,极端气候发生的频率增大,气象灾害造成的损失也随之增加。利用20个气象站1960-2009年的日平均气温和日降水量资料,运用线性趋势法、Spline空间插值法、Morlet小波分析法,对祁连山及河西走廊极端气候的时空变化特征进行了研究。结果表明：极端高温天数呈显著增加趋势,年际变化率为0.79d/a,20世纪90年代中后期之后极端高温天气发生的频率较高;极端低温天数呈显著减少趋势,年际变化率为-0.54d/a, 80年代中后期以来极端低温天气发生的频率较低;极端降水天数也呈显著增加趋势,年际变化率为0.02d/a,70年代中后期之后极端降水天气发生的频率较高。极端气温和降水的年际变化幅度存在区域差异,南部山区比走廊平原对全球气候变暖的响应敏感。极端高温天数和极端低温天数在8a、22a左右周期变化明显,其中22a是第一主周期;极端降水天数在6a、10a、22a左右周期变化明显,其中22a是第一主周期;从22a的周期变化推测,2010年以后11a左右极端高温天数偏少,极端低温天数偏多,极端降水天数偏少。 相似文献
15.
乌鲁木齐河流域气候变化的区域差异特征及突变分析 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
利用乌鲁木齐河流域气象站的气温和降水资料,运用一元回归分析法和5年趋势滑动,进行了气候变化的趋势分析。结果表明:乌鲁木齐河流域的年平均气温在20世纪60-80年代偏低,90年代以后偏高,即80年代前呈下降趋势,90年代后呈上升趋势,并且秋、冬季升温幅度较大;60年代降水量最少,之后逐渐增多,2000年以来迅速增多;气温变化在空间上表现出上游气温低于下游,秋、冬季气候变暖明显早于春、夏季;降水变化的空间差异也明显。在此基础上,利用滑动T检验法、YAMAMOTO检验信噪比(SNR)、Mann-Kendall法、Cramer法和Pettitt法进行气候突变分析。结果表明:乌鲁木齐河流域气温降水突变不明显,不同方法检验的结果不太一致;春、夏季气温可能在1997年发生突变,而秋、冬季在80年代末90年代初发生突变。 相似文献
16.
根据1951-2001年奥地利人口调查统计数据,分析了近50年来奥地利人口变化的时空间规律,以及人口变化中的增长区和下降区的区域配置等特征,并建立人口变化模式。研究表明：20世纪后半叶奥地利经历了其他欧盟国所表现出的城市化、城市郊区化和人口老龄化的各个过程。特别是城市老龄化表现更为突出,据预测推算,到2035年奥地利将会有1/3的人口超过60岁。在分析过程中,不仅应用了行政区划的区域方法,而且也依据土地利用的经济性质,在“土地经济生产小区”的基底上,对人口的变化规律进行了更为深入的透视。研究结果显示：奥地利西部阿尔卑斯山地中的城市区域人口增长幅度最大。沿着捷克和斯洛伐克边界伸展的北部和东北部区域是最严重的人口缺失地区。而奥地利阿尔卑斯山地东部的一些早期产业都市及其郊区,乃至更远一些的南部和东南部的老工业区域,目前由于普遍存在着经济的困境,也直接导致了这些地区人口的下降。但奥地利未来的总人口趋势将持续稳定。 相似文献
17.
The dendrochronological study of shrubs is a new field, particularly with respect to desert areas. Using a dendrochronological perspective, we studied the radial growth and the climatic response model of the common beancaper (Zygophyllum xanthoxylum Maxim) in three sampling sites in the Badain Jaran Desert of northwestern China. The results showed that the radial growth of the common beancaper was primarily affected by precipitation during the pre-growing and growing seasons, especially during July. Variation in wet/drought periods over the last 160 years in the study area was analyzed using a radial growth climatic response model and data on regional chronology. Using decadal time scales, three wet periods were identified in the Badain Jaran Desert: the 1840s to early 1850s, the early 1890s to the 1900s and the late 1970s to the mid-1980s. Similarly, transitions from dry to wet periods over the last 160 years occurred in the late 1850s, mid-1870s, early 1880s, early 1900s, mid-1920s, early 1950s, early and late 1970s and early 1990s. These results are helpful for understanding regional climate change and the desertification process in arid desert regions. 相似文献
18.
Mccracken K 《Geography bulletin》1999,31(1):5-11, 38
"In the summer 1990 issue of this journal the author published a...paper on Sydney's [Australia] population geography. The profile drawn in that paper was Sydney as of the mid-1980s. The aim of the present article is to provide readers with an up-date on that profile, examining the demographic evolution of the city over the past decade...." Aspects considered include population growth, internal patterns of population change, ethnic composition, health and age distribution. 相似文献
19.
Burdack J 《Erdkunde》1993,47(1):52-60
"The paper analyses the population development of French urban agglomerations of more than 50,000 inhabitants over the last three decades (1962-90). Trends of net migration, natural increase and total population change are examined with respect to different functional and structural city types. The results show changes of long established growth patterns: an overall decrease of urban growth rates in the seventies and the resurgence of the growth of the largest metropolitan areas in the eighties." (SUMMARY IN ENG) 相似文献
20.
The metropolitan resources comprehensive efficiencies (also called comprehensive technical efficiency, short for CTE, thereafter), change trends and causes are investigated using DEA and Malmquist index models, respectively, in China during the period 1990–2006. Firstly, the DEA model results show that the metropolitan CTE was just fair to middling with the characteristics of almost declining from the Eastern Coastal to Western China, and only few metropolises were DEA efficient. Secondly, the results also show that the PTE was correlated with the urban population sizes of metropolises negatively, and the SE correlated positively with the urban population sizes of metropolises in 1990, 2000 and 2006, that is, with urban population sizes getting larger the corresponding PTE was decreasing accordingly, and the SE was increasing consequently and the increasing rate was smaller with the scale increase. Thirdly, the influencing factors of metropolitan efficiency were SE and PTE in 1990 and 2000, respectively. But the PTE became the predominant influencing factor with the rapid expansions of built-up areas and population scales of metropolises in 2006. Fourthly, the Malmquist index results show that the CTE change trends were increasing weakly, the technological change trends were declining, and the TFP change trends were declining obviously during 1990–2006, in which they were all increasing during the sub-period 1990–2000, and all decreasing during the sub-period 2000–2006. Fifthly, the Malmquist index results also demonstrate that the CTE change trend was increasing weakly in the Eastern Coastal China, declining in Central China, and declining evidently in Western China. And with the urban population size increasing the increasing trends of SE became weaker and weaker. And the main causes for the CTE being not too high and its change trends and TFP change trends being increasing weakly lie mainly in the technological degeneracy and PTE change trends declining significantly during 2000–2006. Finally, the analyses show that the China’s metropolitan population boom and the rapid spread of built-up area had really caused their resources efficiency losses. 相似文献