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1.
Peter John Marcotullio Andrea Sarzynski Jochen Albrecht Niels Schulz Jake Garcia 《Climatic change》2013,121(4):621-634
The purpose of this paper is to describe global urban greenhouse gas emissions by region and sector, examine the distribution of emissions through the urban-to-rural gradient, and identify covariates of emission levels for our baseline year, 2000. We use multiple existing spatial databases to identify urban extent, greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, N2O, CH4 and SF6) and covariates of emissions in a “top-down” analysis. The results indicate that urban activities are significant sources of total greenhouse gas emissions (36.8 and 48.6 % of total). The urban energy sector accounts for between 41.5 and 66.3 % of total energy emissions. Significant differences exist in the urban share of greenhouse gas emissions between developed and developing countries as well as among source sectors for geographic regions. The 50 largest urban emitting areas account for 38.8 % of all urban greenhouse gas emissions. We find that greenhouse gas emissions are significantly associated with population size, density, growth rates, and per capita income. Finally, comparison of our results to “bottom-up” estimates suggest that this research’s data and techniques are best used at the regional and global scales. 相似文献
2.
Projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are critical to enable a better understanding and anticipation of future climate change under different socio-economic conditions and mitigation strategies. The climate projections and scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) framework, have provided a rich understanding of the constraints and opportunities for policy action. However, the current emissions scenarios lack an explicit treatment of urban emissions within the global context. Given the pace and scale of urbanization, with global urban populations expected to increase from about 4.4 billion today to about 7 billion by 2050, there is an urgent need to fill this knowledge gap. Here, we estimate the share of global GHG emissions driven by urban areas from 1990 to 2100 based on the SSP-RCP framework. The urban consumption-based GHG emissions are presented in five regional aggregates and based on a combination of the urban population share, 2015 urban per capita CO2eq carbon footprint, SSP-based national CO2eq emissions, and recent analysis of urban per capita CO2eq trends. We find that urban areas account for the majority of global GHG emissions in 2015 (61.8%). Moreover, the urban share of global GHG emissions progressively increases into the future, exceeding 80% in some scenarios by the end of the century. The combined urban areas in Asia and Developing Pacific, and Developed Countries account for 65.0% to 73.3% of cumulative urban consumption-based emissions between 2020 and 2100 across the scenarios. Given these dominant roles, we describe the implications for potential urban mitigation in each of the scenario narratives in order to meet the goal of climate neutrality within this century. 相似文献
3.
《Climate Policy》2002,2(4):303-318
To stabilise atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, all countries will eventually need to be included in the effort to limit climate change. This article explores what potential future greenhouse gas allocation schemes might mean for key developing countries. The need for development is widely acknowledged, but growth in non-Annex I country emissions means that such development may need to take a different path to business as usual. The national interests of developing countries in negotiating potential future commitments are shaped by basic characteristics, notably emissions (both annual and historical cumulative), economic growth and population. These factors in turn shape the acceptability of allocations based on ability to pay, emissions intensity, or emissions per capita.Results for six major developing countries (China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Argentina and Nigeria) show that the implications for developing countries differ widely. For example, ability to pay does not favour Argentina; a reduction based on emissions intensity is not appropriate for Brazil; and per capita allocations would be problematic for South Africa. It is difficult to conceive of a single allocation scheme that would be appropriate for all developing countries. This points to the need for differentiation between developing countries in terms of any potential future commitments. 相似文献
4.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(4):303-318
Abstract To stabilise atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, all countries will eventually need to be included in the effort to limit climate change. This article explores what potential future greenhouse gas allocation schemes might mean for key developing countries. The need for development is widely acknowledged, but growth in non-Annex I country emissions means that such development may need to take a different path to business as usual. The national interests of developing countries in negotiating potential future commitments are shaped by basic characteristics, notably emissions (both annual and historical cumulative), economic growth and population. These factors in turn shape the acceptability of allocations based on ability to pay, emissions intensity, or emissions per capita. Results for six major developing countries (China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Argentina and Nigeria) show that the implications for developing countries differ widely. For example, ability to pay does not favour Argentina; a reduction based on emissions intensity is not appropriate for Brazil; and per capita allocations would be problematic for South Africa. It is difficult to conceive of a single allocation scheme that would be appropriate for all developing countries. This points to the need for differentiation between developing countries in terms of any potential future commitments. 相似文献
5.
We analyze the interaction of climate and development policy that has taken place since the early 1990s. Increasing dissatisfaction
about the results of traditional development cooperation and the appeal of climate policy as a new policy field led to a rapid
reorientation of aid flows. At the turn of the century, over 7% of aid flows were spent on greenhouse gas emissions mitigation.
However, the contribution of emissions mitigation projects to the central development objective of poverty reduction as specified
in the Millennium Development Goals is limited and other project types are likely to be much more effective. Adaptation to
climate change can be expected to have higher synergies with poverty alleviation than mitigation, primarily through its impact
on health, the conservation of arable land and the protection against natural disasters. An analysis of the Clean Development
Mechanism shows that projects addressing the poor directly are very rare; even small renewable energy projects in rural areas
tend to benefit rich farmers and the urban population. Use of development aid for CDM projects and / or their preparation
via capacity building is thus clearly not warranted. We further analyze whether the use of development aid for climate policy
could be justified as a countermeasure against the emission increase related to successful development itself. However, countries
that are achieving an improvement of human development from a low level are unlikely to increase their energy consumption
substantially. Only at a level where the middle class expands rapidly, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions soar.
Thus targeting middle class energy consumption by appliance efficiency standards and public transport-friendly urban planning
are the most effective measures to address developing country emissions. Rural renewable energy provision in poor countries
has a much higher impact on poverty, but a much lower impact on greenhouse gas emissions. We conclude that while there are
valid reasons for long-term collaboration with emerging economies on greenhouse gas mitigation, there should be a separate
budget line for such activities to avoid “obfuscation” of a decline of resources aimed at poverty alleviation. Nevertheless,
mitigation will remain attractive for donors because it ensures quick disbursements and relatively simple measures of success.
Moreover, mitigation activities in developing countries provide politicians in industrialized countries with a welcome strategy
to divert the attention of their constituencies from the lack of success in reducing greenhouse gas emissions domestically. 相似文献
6.
Dramatic increases in liquid biofuel production have led to concerns about associated impacts on food prices, with many modeling studies showing significant biofuel-related price inflation. In turn, by changing patterns of food demand, biofuel production may indirectly influence greenhouse gas emissions. We estimated changes to dietary energy (calorie) demand and greenhouse gas emissions embodied in average diets under different biofuel-related food-price scenarios for Brazil, China and the United States, using food-price projections and food-price elasticities. Average energy demand decreased in all countries, from about 40 kcal per person per day in Brazil under a moderate price inflation scenario – a reduction of 1% relative to the (2009) reference scenario – to nearly 300 per day in the United States with high price inflation – almost 8% of reference levels. However, emissions per calorie increased slightly in all three countries. In terms of total greenhouse gas emissions, the results are suggestive of overall reductions only in the United States, where average reductions ranged from about 40 to 110 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per person per year. In China, the direction of impact is unclear, but the net change is likely to be small. Brazilian results were sensitive to parameter values and the direction and magnitude of impact is therefore uncertain. Despite the uncertainty, even small changes (positive or negative) in individual dietary emissions can produce large changes at the population level, arguing for the inclusion of the dietary pathway in greenhouse gas accounting of liquid biofuels. 相似文献
7.
Hanno Sandvik 《Climatic change》2008,90(3):333-341
It has been shown previously that the awareness and concern of the general public about global warming is not only a function
of scientific information. Both psychological and sociological factors affect the willingness of laypeople to acknowledge
the reality of global warming, and to support climate policies of their home countries. In this paper, I analyse a cross-national
dataset of public concern about global warming, utilising data from 46 countries. Based on earlier results at the national
and regional level, I expect concern to be negatively correlated to national measures of wealth and carbon dioxide emissions.
I find that gross domestic product is indeed negatively correlated to the proportion of a population that regards global warming
as a serious problem. There is also a marginally significant tendency that nations’ per capita carbon dioxide emissions are
negatively correlated to public concern. These findings suggest that the willingness of a nation to contribute to reductions
in greenhouse gas emissions decreases with its share of these emissions. This is in accordance with psychological findings,
but poses a problem for political decision-makers. When communicating with the public, scientists ought to be aware of their
responsibility to use a language that is understood by laypeople. 相似文献
8.
The 1997 Brazilian Proposal suggested that differentiated emissions reduction targets for Annex I parties of the UNFCCC should be based on the impact of their historic greenhouse gas emissions on global temperature rise. In this paper, we develop methodologies for (and undertake) population-adjusted historical responsibility calculations. These adjust national-level historical responsibility calculations for historical population trends. We find a weak correlation between current per capita emissions levels and population-adjusted historical responsibility. Our calculations may contribute to burden sharing schemes in future climate agreements. 相似文献
9.
Since 1970, global agricultural production has more than doubled with agriculture and land-use change now responsible for ∼1/4 of greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. Yet, while greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit of agricultural product have been reduced at a global level, trends in world regions have been quantified less thoroughly. The KPI (Kaya-Porter Identity) is a novel framework for analysing trends in agricultural production and land-use change and related GHG emissions. We apply this to assess trends and differences in nine world regions over the period 1970–2007. We use a deconstructed analysis of emissions from the mix of multiple sources, and show how each is changing in terms of absolute emissions on a per area and per produced unit basis, and how the change of emissions from each source contributes to the change in total emissions over time. The doubling of global agricultural production has mainly been delivered by developing and transitional countries, and this has been mirrored by increased GHG emissions. The decoupling of emissions from production shows vast regional differences. Our estimates show that emissions per unit crop (as kg CO2-equivalents per Giga Joule crop product), in Oceania, have been reduced by 94% from 1093 to 69; in Central & South America by 57% from 849 to 362; in sub-Saharan Africa by 27% from 421 to 309, and in Europe by 56% from 86 to 38. Emissions per unit livestock (as kg CO2-eq. GJ−1 livestock product) have reduced; in sub-Saharan Africa by 24% from 6001 to 4580; in Central & South America by 61% from 3742 to 1448; in Central & Eastern Asia by 82% from 3,205 to 591, and; in North America by 28% from 878 to 632. In general, intensive and industrialised systems show the lowest emissions per unit of agricultural production. 相似文献
10.
It has long been accepted that the relative affluence and technological efficiency of nations are important contributors to their rate of emissions. These associations have, in turn, driven questions about the feasibility of mitigating anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions through incremental transition to “business as usual” policy structures in variant social contexts. Here, I explore the extent to which the historical context of colonial relations impacts the feasibility of a nation mitigating emissions per capita, emissions per dollar, and total emissions under current development logics. To do so I examine the structure of variation for 152 nations during the 1960–2018 period. Subsequently, I examine how being situated as an extractive colony in the past serves to moderate the association of GDP per capita with CO 2 emissions per capita, CO 2 emissions per dollar, and total CO 2 emissions in the present. I find that roughly 11% of cross-national variation in CO 2 emissions per capita and CO 2 emissions per dollar, as well as nearly 6% of variation in total CO 2 emissions between 1960 and 2018 is attributable to having been historically subjected to extractive colonial processes. These findings suggest that mitigation of emissions through transition of “business as usual” policy structures appears significantly less feasible for nations positioned as extractive colonies in the past, relative to all others. 相似文献
11.
Rob Dellink Michel den Elzen Harry Aiking Emmy Bergsma Frans Berkhout Thijs Dekker Joyeeta Gupta 《Global Environmental Change》2009,19(4):411-421
Climate change may cause most harm to countries that have historically contributed the least to greenhouse gas emissions and land-use change. This paper identifies consequentialist and non-consequentialist ethical principles to guide a fair international burden-sharing scheme of climate change adaptation costs. We use these ethical principles to derive political principles – historical responsibility and capacity to pay – that can be applied in assigning a share of the financial burden to individual countries. We then propose a hybrid ‘common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities’ approach as a promising starting point for international negotiations on the design of burden-sharing schemes. A numerical assessment of seven scenarios shows that the countries of Annex I of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change would bear the bulk of the costs of adaptation, but contributions differ substantially subject to the choice of a capacity to pay indicator. The contributions are less sensitive to choices related to responsibility calculations, apart from those associated with land-use-related emissions. Assuming costs of climate adaptation of USD 100 billion per year, the total financial contribution by the Annex I countries would be in the range of USD 65–70 billion per year. Expressed as a per capita basis, this gives a range of USD 43–82 per capita per year. 相似文献
12.
上海城市二氧化碳排放空间特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
构建上海1 km CO2排放网格,分析市域（UB1）、市辖区（UB2）、建成区（UB3）和城区（UB4）4个城市范围的CO2排放特征。上海市域CO2排放空间格局是以中心城区为核心,排放水平向外递减,形成了3个梯度。空间自相关分析表明,排放在空间上存在显著的集聚效应,部分地区高强度的经济活动和能源活动对周边区域的排放有显著影响。UB4是上海城市的最佳表征,2007年UB4内CO2排放达到1.89亿t,人均排放12.04 t;UB4排放占UB1排放的75.40%,UB1人均排放比UB4人均排放高12%。上海城市化和工业化在空间上的高度重合,导致高排放源集聚于UB4内,形成UB4的高排放特征。个别网格的排放量已经占到区域或者城市总排放量的10%～20%;前10高和前100高排放网格,其累积排放总量分别占据了3个城市范围（UB1、UB3和UB4）总排放量的60%和80%以上。 相似文献
13.
We examined both long-term climate variability and anthropogenic contributions to current climate change for Xinjiang province of northwest China. Xinjiang encompasses several mountain ranges and inter-mountain basins and is comprised of a northern semiarid region and a more arid southern region. Climate over the last three centuries was reconstructed from tree rings and temperature series were calculated for the past 50 years using weather station data. Three major conclusions from these analyses are: (1) Although temperature varied considerably in Xinjiang over the last 200 years, it was non-directional until the last 50 years when a substantial warming trend occurred; (2) The semiarid North Xinjiang was representative of the northern hemisphere climate, while the more arid South Xinjiang resembled the southern hemisphere climate, meanwhile, (3) The entire Xinjiang province captured the global-scale climate signal. We also compared human contributions to global change between North and South Xinjiang, including land cover/land use, population, and greenhouse gas production. For both regions, urban areas acted as heat islands; and large areas of grassland and forest were converted to barren land, especially in North Xinjiang. Additionally, North Xinjiang also showed larger increase in population and greenhouse gas emissions mainly associated with animal production than those in South Xinjiang. Although Xinjiang province is a geographically coupled mountain–basin system, the two regions have distinct climate patterns and anthropogenic activities related to land cover conversion and greenhouse gas production. 相似文献
14.
Katherine Calvin Shonali Pachauri Enrica De Cian Ioanna Mouratiadou 《Climatic change》2016,136(1):109-125
Today Africa is a small emitter, but it has a large and faster-than-average growing population and per capita income that could drive future energy demand and, if unconstrained, emissions. This paper uses a multi-model comparison to characterize the potential future energy development for Continental and Sub-Saharan Africa under different assumptions about population and income. Our results suggest that population and economic growth rates will strongly influence Africa’s future energy use and emissions. We show that affluence is only one face of the medal and the range of future emissions is also contingent on technological and political factors. Higher energy intensity improvements occur when Africa grows faster. In contrast, climate intensity varies less with economic growth and it is mostly driven by climate policy. African emissions could account for between 5 % and 20 % of global emissions, with Sub-Saharan Africa contributing between 4 % and 10 % of world emissions in 2100. In all scenarios considered, affluence levels remain low until the middle of the century, suggesting that the population could remain dependent on traditional bioenergy to meet most residential energy needs. Although the share of electricity in final energy, electric capacity and electricity use per capita all rise with income, even by mid-century they do not reach levels observed in developed countries today. 相似文献
15.
2003—2009年中国污水处理部门温室气体排放研究 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
基于《中国环境统计年报》等的统计数据,采用IPCC提供的方法估算了2003—2009年我国源自污水处理部门的温室气体排放量,并对污水处理部门人均温室气体排放量进行分析。结果表明,2003—2009年污水处理部门温室气体排放呈增加趋势,源自生活污水的N2O排放是主要排放源,生活污水CH4排放增速最快;工业行业中造纸业废水的CH4排放是主要排放源;人均温室气体排放量呈现递增趋势。 相似文献
16.
Keywan Riahi Shilpa Rao Volker Krey Cheolhung Cho Vadim Chirkov Guenther Fischer Georg Kindermann Nebojsa Nakicenovic Peter Rafaj 《Climatic change》2011,109(1-2):33-57
This paper summarizes the main characteristics of the RCP8.5 scenario. The RCP8.5 combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. Compared to the total set of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP8.5 thus corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. Using the IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework and the MESSAGE model for the development of the RCP8.5, we focus in this paper on two important extensions compared to earlier scenarios: 1) the development of spatially explicit air pollution projections, and 2) enhancements in the land-use and land-cover change projections. In addition, we explore scenario variants that use RCP8.5 as a baseline, and assume different degrees of greenhouse gas mitigation policies to reduce radiative forcing. Based on our modeling framework, we find it technically possible to limit forcing from RCP8.5 to lower levels comparable to the other RCPs (2.6 to 6 W/m2). Our scenario analysis further indicates that climate policy-induced changes of global energy supply and demand may lead to significant co-benefits for other policy priorities, such as local air pollution. 相似文献
17.
Western diets are characterised by a high intake of meat, dairy products and eggs, causing an intake of saturated fat and red meat in quantities that exceed dietary recommendations. The associated livestock production requires large areas of land and lead to high nitrogen and greenhouse gas emission levels. Although several studies have examined the potential impact of dietary changes on greenhouse gas emissions and land use, those on health, the agricultural system and other environmental aspects (such as nitrogen emissions) have only been studied to a limited extent. By using biophysical models and methods, we examined the large-scale consequences in the European Union of replacing 25–50% of animal-derived foods with plant-based foods on a dietary energy basis, assuming corresponding changes in production. We tested the effects of these alternative diets and found that halving the consumption of meat, dairy products and eggs in the European Union would achieve a 40% reduction in nitrogen emissions, 25–40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and 23% per capita less use of cropland for food production. In addition, the dietary changes would also lower health risks. The European Union would become a net exporter of cereals, while the use of soymeal would be reduced by 75%. The nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) of the food system would increase from the current 18% to between 41% and 47%, depending on choices made regarding land use. As agriculture is the major source of nitrogen pollution, this is expected to result in a significant improvement in both air and water quality in the EU. The resulting 40% reduction in the intake of saturated fat would lead to a reduction in cardiovascular mortality. These diet-led changes in food production patterns would have a large economic impact on livestock farmers and associated supply-chain actors, such as the feed industry and meat-processing sector. 相似文献
18.
《Climate Policy》2001,1(3):309-326
Carbon dioxide emissions from UK energy use have fallen by more than 20% over the last 30 years, and carbon intensity — carbon emissions per unit of GDP — has halved. These reductions have been achieved by a combination of decarbonisation of the energy system and substantial improvements in energy efficiency. Use of natural gas in power generation has been a big factor in recent years, but energy efficiency improvements in households and particularly industry have been more important over a longer period. Government policies designed primarily to address climate change have not been important contributors, until recently.Future reductions in emissions will require more proactive policies. However, they are possible without any economic difficulties, notably by adopting cost-effective energy efficiency measures, using new renewable energy sources and reducing dependence on private cars. These policies will improve economic efficiency. The new UK Climate Change Programme includes policies that combine regulation, investment, fiscal measures and other economic instruments. By working with the grain of other social, environmental and economic policies, they can achieve far more than a carbon tax alone, set at any politically acceptable level. Modelling the costs of emission reductions using a carbon tax as the only instrument would not only massively over-estimate costs, it would bear little resemblance to real world politics.The paper demonstrates that a more diverse set of policy instruments is likely to be an effective and politically acceptable approach in a mature industrial economy. It is concluded that the UK’s Kyoto target of a 12.5% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is not challenging. The UK Government’s target of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 20% between 1990 and 2010 is also achievable. By 2010 per capita emissions from the UK will be well below 2.5 tC per year. Claims that some countries, notably the USA, could not reduce per capita emissions below 6 tC per year seem inconsistent with this experience. 相似文献
19.
Flood damage modelling has traditionally been limited to the local, regional or national scale. Recent flood events, population growth and climate change concerns have increased the need for global methods with both spatial and temporal dynamics. This paper presents a first estimation of global economic exposure to both river and coastal flooding for the period 1970–2050, using two different methods for damage assessment. One method is based on population and the second is based on land-use within areas subject to 1/100 year flood events. On the basis of population density and GDP per capita, we estimate a total global exposure to river and coastal flooding of 46 trillion USD in 2010. By 2050, these numbers are projected to increase to 158 trillion USD. Using a land-use based assessment, we estimated a total flood exposure of 27 trillion USD in 2010. For 2050 we simulate a total exposure of 80 trillion USD. The largest absolute exposure changes between 1970 and 2050 are simulated in North America and Asia. In relative terms we project the largest increases in North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. The models also show systematically larger growth in the population living within hazard zones compared to total population growth. While the methods unveil similar overall trends in flood exposure, there are significant differences in the estimates and geographical distribution. These differences result from inherent model characteristics and the varying relationship between population density and the total urban area in the regions of analysis. We propose further research on the modelling of inundation characteristics and flood protection standards, which can complement the methodologies presented in this paper to enable the development of a global flood risk framework. 相似文献
20.
The Paris Agreement and next steps in limiting global warming 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Steven K. Rose Richard Richels Geoffrey Blanford Thomas Rutherford 《Climatic change》2017,142(1-2):255-270
The Paris Climate Agreement sets out an aggressive goal of limiting global average warming to well below 2 °C. As a first step, virtually all countries have put forth greenhouse gas emission reduction pledges in the form of nationally determined contributions, or NDCs, for the 2030 timeframe. Our analysis looks beyond the NDCs to explore potential post-2030 regional emissions reduction participation and ambition. For each scenario, we examine the implications for global emissions and long-term temperature. We then evaluate the regional consequences for energy systems and ensuing costs. We conclude by reflecting on the additional global abatement costs of tightening temperature goals. Overall, this study provides a multidimensional characterization of the scale of regional effort supporting climate outcomes, details important to decision-makers as they consider mid-century emissions targets, and long-run climate objectives. 相似文献