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1.
This study is concerned with seismicity variations in Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands for the period 1962–2009; the effects of large earthquakes on the seismicity of adjacent areas are taken into account. The 1997 Kronotskii earthquake was followed by seismicity decreases in most areas over Kamchatka, which is presumably related to decreased tectonic stresses. After the 2007 Simushir earthquake synchronization and periodicities in seismicity were identified, indicating increased instabilities and the likelihood of a large event in Kamchatka in the near future. The instability of seismic regions is discussed within the framework of the theory of nonequilibrium dynamical systems. We suggest successive phases in the occurrence of seismological precursors.  相似文献   

2.
Kutch region of Gujrat is one of the most seismic prone regions of India. Recently, it has been rocked by a large earthquake (M w = 7.7) on January 26, 2001. The probabilities of occurrence of large earthquake (M≥6.0 and M≥5.0) in a specified interval of time for different elapsed times have been estimated on the basis of observed time-intervals between the large earthquakes (M≥6.0 and M≥5.0) using three probabilistic models, namely, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal. The earthquakes of magnitude ≥5.0 covering about 180 years have been used for this analysis. However, the method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) has been applied for computation of earthquake hazard parameters. The mean interval of occurrence of earthquakes and standard deviation are estimated as 20.18 and 8.40 years for M≥5.0 and 36.32 and 12.49 years, for M≥6.0, respectively, for this region. For the earthquakes M≥5.0, the estimated cumulative probability reaches 0.8 after about 27 years for Lognormal and Gamma models and about 28 years for Weibull model while it reaches 0.9 after about 32 years for all the models. However, for the earthquakes M≥6.0, the estimated cumulative probability reaches 0.8 after about 47 years for all the models while it reaches 0.9 after about 53, 54 and 55 years for Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal model, respectively. The conditional probability also reaches about 0.8 to 0.9 for the time period of 28 to 40 years and 50 to 60 years for M≥5.0 and M≥6.0, respectively, for all the models. The probability of occurrence of an earthquake is very high between 28 to 42 years for the magnitudes ≥5.0 and between 47 to 55 years for the magnitudes ≥6.0, respectively, past from the last earthquake (2001).  相似文献   

3.
We used the data on the activity of volcanoes in Kamchatka and the North Kuril Islands for the period from 1840 to early 2013 to identify the most significant cyclic components. The resulting periodicities were compared with the recurrence spectrum for great (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes in the Kuril-Kamchatka region for 1841–2012. We detected 52.8–54.0, 8.58, and 5.72-year cycles, which are common both to seismicity and to volcanic activity. The first interval is close to the three times the value of the 18.613-year lunar rhythm (55.84 years). The 8.58 and 5.72-year periodicities seem to be controlled by solar activity variations and are the second and third harmonics in the 17.15-year cycle. This cycle and its harmonics are used for long-term prediction of great (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes in the Kuril-Kamchatka region as a whole. It was concluded that the existing increased hazard of great earthquake occurrence in the Kuril-Kamchatka region will last until February 2016 (a 40% probability of a great earthquake during that period). In addition, the long-period phase of increased seismic hazard will last until 2027 with the probability of great earthquakes being 1.6 times the long-term average value.  相似文献   

4.
Formation,history and energetics of cores in the terrestrial planets   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The cores of the terrestrial planets Earth, Moon, Mercury, Venus and Mars differ substantially in size and in history. Though no planet other than the Earth has a conclusively demonstrated core, the probable cores in Mercury and Mars and Earth's core show a decrease in relative core size with solar distance. The Moon does not fit this sequence and Venus may not. Core formation must have been early (prior to ～4 · 109 yr. ago) in the Earth, by virtue of the existence of ancient rock units and ancient paleomagnetism and from UPb partitioning arguments, and in Mercury, because the consequences of core infall would have included extensional tectonic features which are not observed even on Mercury's oldest terrain. If a small core exists in the Moon, still an open question, completion of core formation may be placed several hundred million years after the end of heavy bombardment on tectonic and thermal grounds. Core formation time on Mars is loosely constrained, but may have been substantially later than for the other terrestrial planets. The magnitude and extent of early heating to drive global differentiation appear to have decreased with distance from the sun for at least the smaller bodies Mercury, Moon and Mars.Energy sources to maintain a molten state and to fuel convection and magnetic dynamos in the cores of the terrestrial planets include principally gravitational energy, heat of fusion, and long-lived radioactivity. The gravitational energy of core infall is quantifiable and substantial for all bodies but the Moon, but was likely spent too early in the history of most planets to prove a significant residual heat source to drive a present dynamo. The energy from inner core freezing in the Earth and in Mercury is at best marginally able to match even the conductive heat loss along an outer core adiabat. Radioactive decay in the core offers an attractive but unproven energy source to maintain core convection.  相似文献   

5.
长江下游地区地震的日月周期性   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文
杜品仁  李起彤 《地震地质》1992,14(2):157-164
根据重力固体潮理论值公式,计算长江下游地区地震(M_s≥5.0,1900～1990)的各位相值,按Schuster检验和χ2检验进行判定,发现该地区的地震具有下述非随机的月亮和太阳的周期性:(1)半日周期,表现为太阳时角变化的半周期(P_R=0.023,χ2=7.576)和半日固体潮周期(P_R=0.017,χ2=8.167);(2)半月周期,表现为半个朔望月周期(P_R=0.011,χ2=8.985)和双周潮周期(P_R=0.061,χ2=5.588);(3)对M_s≥5.1地震,还显示出1年的周期,太阳黄经的P_R=0.035,χ2=6.712。对M_s≥5.2地震,还存在半个月球近地点黄经变化周期(P_R=0.043,χ2=6.309)。  相似文献   

6.
行星运行都具有一定的周期性.近百年历次大震是在行星20,59,237年会合及合成与月回归下降时段内发震的.文内把近百年强震与当年天文年历及各大行星运行数据绘制地心距视赤经天象图,及5大行星黄经位置天象图,经过验证得出结论.供长期地震预报参考.  相似文献   

7.
The relation between the local mean lunar time τ of earthquake occurrence and their fault trends is studied in this paper. The local mean lunar times τ of 53 earthquakes in 24 groups are calculated. Because the tidal generation force arisen by the moon is a cyclic function of about 12 hours 25 minutes in the main, the two tidal generation forces anywhere in the earth arising by the moon are equal in general when the moon lies to the two sites of 180° interval of local mean lunar time. Based on this phenomenon the values Δτ of τ1–τ2 or τ1–τ2 ± 180° of two earthquakes occurring repetitiously in the same place are also calculated. The calculated results show that if the fault trends of the two earthquakes in the same place is near, the Δτ is usually smaller and if the fault trends of the two ones is not near, the Δτ is usually larger and the distribution of the local mean lunar time τ of earthquakes in different places is dispersive even if fault trends of these earthquakes are near, and the τ does not concentrate on the lower and upper transit of the moon. The above phenomena clear up that the triggering earthquake of earth solid tide arisen by the moon is relative with the fault trends of earthquakes and we ought to think over the difference of environmental conditions of earthquake preparation of each seismogenic zone and can not make statistics to earthquakes in different places when we study the relation between the solid earth tide arisen by the moon and earthquakes.  相似文献   

8.
The earthquakes offshore Fujian and Guangdong Provinces concentrated along the two segments near Nan’ao in the south and Quanzhou in the north of the off coast fault, which is very active since the late Pleistocene. In 1918 and 1906, two earthquakes with magnitudes 7.3 and 6.1 respectively occurred in the south and the north regions. With the instrumentally determined seismic parameters of these two earthquakes as standards, the author evaluated the parameters of the historical earthquakes by comparing their macroseismic materials with consideration of the geological background. As a result, chronological tables of historical earthquakes of the south and the north regions were compiled. The seismic activity of the two regions synchronized basically, and their strongest recorded earthquakes were both aroundM s 7.3. Seismic activity usually intensified before the occurrence of strong events. Aftershocks were frequent, but strong aftershocks usually occurred one to several years after the main shock. Two high tides of seismic activity occurred since the late 15th century. Around 1600, eight earthquakes each with magnitudes over 4.3 occurred in both of the two regions. The magnitude of the strongest shock in the south region is 6.7, that in the north region is 7.5. The second high tide occurred at the early 20th century. Among the 18 earthquakes occurred in the south region, one was of magnitude 7.3; whilst only two earthquakes with magnitudes 6.1 and 5.5 respectively occurred in the north region. Further, medium to strong earthquakes never occurred since 1942. Whether this is the “mitigation effect” of strong shocks, or a big earthquake is brewing in the north region is worth intensive study. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 505–515, 1991. This work is supported by Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.  相似文献   

9.
In this study, the spatial distributions of seismicity and seismic hazard were assessed for Turkey and its surrounding area. For this purpose, earthquakes that occurred between 1964 and 2004 with magnitudes of M ≥ 4 were used in the region (30–42°N and 20–45°E). For the estimation of seismicity parameters and its mapping, Turkey and surrounding area are divided into 1,275 circular subregions. The b-value from the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distributions is calculated by the classic way and the new alternative method both using the least-squares approach. The a-value in the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distributions is taken as a constant value in the new alternative method. The b-values calculated by the new method were mapped. These results obtained from both methods are compared. The b-value shows different distributions along Turkey for both techniques. The b-values map prepared with new technique presents a better consistency with regional tectonics, earthquake activities, and epicenter distributions. Finally, the return period and occurrence hazard probability of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes in 75 years were calculated by using the Poisson model for both techniques. The return period and occurrence hazard probability maps determined from both techniques showed a better consistency with each other. Moreover, maps of the occurrence hazard probability and return period showed better consistency with the b-parameter seismicity maps calculated from the new method. The occurrence hazard probability and return period of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes were calculated as 90–99% and 5–10 years, respectively, from the Poisson model in the western part of the studying region.  相似文献   

10.
According to the fracture mechanics rupture model of earthquakes put forward by us, several equations to compute tectonic ambient shear stress value τ0 have been derived [equations (1), (2), (3), (5)]. τ0 values for intermediate and small earthquakes occurred in Chinese mainland and Southern California have been calculated by use of these equations. The results demonstrate that the level and distribution of τ0 are closely related to the location where large earthquakes will occur, i.e. the region with higher level of τ0 will be prone to occur large earthquakes and the region with lower level will usually occur small earthquakes. According to the spatial distribution of τ0, the seismic hazard regions or the potential earthquake source regions can in some degree be determined. According to the variation of τ0 with time, the large earthquake occurrence time can be roughly estimated. According to the distribution of τ0 in Southern California and variation with time, three high stress level regions are determined, one (Goldfield area) of them is the present seismic hazard region. Contribution No. 98A02023, Institute of Geophysics, State Seismological Bureau, China  相似文献   

11.
This paper mainly discusses the correlations of the occurrence time of the generalized preshock sequence earthquakes and the lunar and solar local hour angles over a period of time in the seismogenic zone of strong earthquake prior to a mainshock. Their group characteristics indicate that the occurrence time of earthquakes above a certain scale is modulated by the lunar and solar local hour angles. Statistical results show that the significant correlations exist between these two things, which is of some physical significance. At the same time, the differences of actions of the Sun and Moon are analyzed and the possible active mechanism is discussed from the point of earthquake-restrained as well.  相似文献   

12.
In planetary sciences, the geodetic (geometric) heights defined with respect to the reference surface (the sphere or the ellipsoid) or with respect to the center of the planet/moon are typically used for mapping topographic surface, compilation of global topographic models, detailed mapping of potential landing sites, and other space science and engineering purposes. Nevertheless, certain applications, such as studies of gravity-driven mass movements, require the physical heights to be defined with respect to the equipotential surface. Taking the analogy with terrestrial height systems, the realization of height systems for telluric planets and moons could be done by means of defining the orthometric and geoidal heights. In this case, however, the definition of the orthometric heights in principle differs. Whereas the terrestrial geoid is described as an equipotential surface that best approximates the mean sea level, such a definition for planets/moons is irrelevant in the absence of (liquid) global oceans. A more natural choice for planets and moons is to adopt the geoidal equipotential surface that closely approximates the geometric reference surface (the sphere or the ellipsoid). In this study, we address these aspects by proposing a more accurate approach for defining the orthometric heights for telluric planets and moons from available topographic and gravity models, while adopting the average crustal density in the absence of reliable crustal density models. In particular, we discuss a proper treatment of topographic masses in the context of gravimetric geoid determination. In numerical studies, we investigate differences between the geodetic and orthometric heights, represented by the geoidal heights, on Mercury, Venus, Mars, and Moon. Our results reveal that these differences are significant. The geoidal heights on Mercury vary from ? 132 to 166 m. On Venus, the geoidal heights are between ? 51 and 137 m with maxima on this planet at Atla Regio and Beta Regio. The largest geoid undulations between ? 747 and 1685 m were found on Mars, with the extreme positive geoidal heights under Olympus Mons in Tharsis region. Large variations in the geoidal geometry are also confirmed on the Moon, with the geoidal heights ranging from ? 298 to 461 m. For comparison, the terrestrial geoid undulations are mostly within ± 100 m. We also demonstrate that a commonly used method for computing the geoidal heights that disregards the differences between the gravity field outside and inside topographic masses yields relatively large errors. According to our estimates, these errors are ? 0.3/+ 3.4 m for Mercury, 0.0/+ 13.3 m for Venus, ? 1.4/+ 125.6 m for Mars, and ? 5.6/+ 45.2 m for the Moon.  相似文献   

13.
Phase folding algorithms are conventionally used in periodicity analyses using X-ray astronomy pulsar. These allow for accurate identification of the cycle and phase characteristics of the physical parameters of the periodic variation. Although periodic variations in earthquake activity have long been studied, this paper is the first to apply the phase folding algorithm to the analysis of shallow (<70 km) seismic data for the period 1973–2010. The goal is to study the phase distribution characteristics of earthquake frequencies and we see a connection between earthquake occurrence and solar and lunar cycles. First, the rotation of the Sun may play a significant role in impacting on the occurrence time of earthquakes with magnitudes of less than 6.0. This may be especially pertinent for earthquakes with magnitudes between 5.0 and 6.0, when the modulation ratio reaches 12 %. The Moon’s gravity, which is generally thought to have the greatest influence on the global environment, may actually play less of a role on earthquake timing than the rotation of the Sun. Second, when we consider the world to be divided into 72 local regions based on latitude and longitude, we can see that there are more than a dozen regions with significant non-uniform distributions of earthquake occurrence time. In these regions, the ratio of χ 2 to the number of degrees of freedom far exceeds five. As a result, we posit that some factors associated with the Sun–Earth–Moon relationship may trigger earthquake activity under certain temporal and spatial conditions.  相似文献   

14.
全球主要地震区中源和深源大地震的18．6年轮回   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文
分析全球中源和深源大地震与月球交点运动的关系，确定了１５个地区的中源和深源大地震有明显的１８．６ａ地震轮回。在这１５个地区中，除兴都库什地区外，其余地区的边界与俯冲带的分段性有密切关系。这一发现进一步证实了岩浆潮致上涌可调制地震活动的岩浆潮假设，并表明岩浆潮致上涌的影响范围在深部和浅部明显不同，中源和深源地震的发生很可能和岩浆上涌有关。  相似文献   

15.
According to geological tectonics and seismic activites this paper devided North China (30°–45°N, 105°–130°E) into four areas. We analyzed the North China earthquake catalogue from 1970 to 1986 (from 1965 to 1986 for Huabei, the North China, plain region) and identified forty-two bursts of aftershock. Seven of them occurred in aftershock regions of strong earthquakes and seventeen of them in the seismic swarm regions. The relation between strong earthquakes with the remaining eighteen bursts of aftershocks has been studied and tested statistically in this paper. The result of statistical testing show that the random probabilityp of coincidence of bursts of aftershock with subsequent strong earthquakes is less than six percent. By Xu’sR scoring method the efficacy of predicting strong earthquake from bursts of aftershock is estimated greater than 39 percent. Following the method proposed in the paper we analyzed the earthquake catalogue of China from 1987 to June, 1988. The results show that there was only one burst of aftershock occurred on Jan. 6, 1988 withM=3.6 in Xiuyan of Northeast China. It implicates that a potential earthquake withM S⩽5 might occur in one year afterwards in the region of Northeast China. Actually on Feb. 25, 1988 an earthquake withM S=5.3 occurred in Zhangwu of Northeast China. Another example is Datong-Yanggao shock on October 18, 1989 which is a burst of aftershock. Three hours after an expected shock withM =6.1 took place in the same area. Two examples above have been tested in practical prediction and this shows that bursts of aftershocks are significant in predicting strong earthquakes. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 273–280, 1991. Part of earthquake catalogue is from Jinbiao Chen, Peiyan Chen and Quanlin Li.  相似文献   

16.
In this paper we investigate the tidal triggering evidence on the earthquakes of the seismic area of the Hellenic Arc using the Hist(ogram)Cum(mulation) method. We analyze the series of the earthquakes occurred in the area which is confined by the longitudes 22° and 28°E and latitudes 34° and 36°N in the time period from 1964 to 2012. In this time period 16,137 shallow and of intermediate depth earthquakes with ML up to 6.0 and 1,482 deep earthquakes with ML up to 6.2 occurred. The result of the this analysis indicate that the monthly variation of the frequencies of earthquake occurrence is in accordance with the period of the tidal lunar monthly variations, and the same happens with the corresponding daily variations of the frequencies of earthquake occurrence with the diurnal luni-solar (K1) and semidiurnal solar (S2) tidal variations. These results are in favor of a tidal triggering process on earthquakes when the stress in the focal area is near the critical level.  相似文献   

17.
A 56-year cyclicity in the occurrence of large Kamchatka earthquakes has been previously detected. This is another manifestation of the tendency for the timing of large Kamchatka earthquakes to be synchronized to the cycles related to the period T o of rotation of the lunar nodes found by V.A. Shirokov in 1974. He identified cycles of 18.6 years = T o and 6.2 years = T o/3, while the period of the 56-year cycle is 3T o. The genuineness of that phenomenon had to be revised in connection with the occurrence of a large (M w = 7.8) earthquake in Kamchatka at the end of 1997, in violation of the 56-year cyclicity. It turned out that, even though the 56-year cycle has become less distinct after the 1997 event, the cyclicity itself has remained statistically significant. A byproduct is an updated forecast of earthquake hazard for Kamchatka. The update is necessary in view of the approaching hazardous period of 2008–2011. It is found that, assuming the validity of these empirical tendencies, the expected rate of large earthquakes off Kamchatka for the period of August 2008 to October 2011 will be four times as high as the long-term mean. We derive the first-ever estimate of future hazard in terms of felt intensity for specified soil conditions (the so-called average soil) at a specified site (the town of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii). For these soil conditions, the estimated probability of at least one shock of intensity VII or greater during the period specified above is equal to 0.39 ± 0.15. The expected rate of single events or sets of events with M w ≥ 7.6 in Kamchatka during this period is 0.76 ± 0.25.  相似文献   

18.
We develop new approaches to calculating 30-year probabilities for occurrence of moderate-to-large earthquakes in Italy. Geodetic techniques and finite-element modelling, aimed to reproduce a large amount of neotectonic data using thin-shell finite element, are used to separately calculate the expected seismicity rates inside seismogenic areas (polygons containing mapped faults and/or suspected or modelled faults). Thirty-year earthquake probabilities obtained from the two approaches show similarities in most of Italy: the largest probabilities are found in the southern Apennines, where they reach values between 10% and 20% for earthquakes of M W ≥ 6.0, and lower than 10% for events with an M W ≥ 6.5.  相似文献   

19.
Persian territory, which is dividable into major seismotectonic provinces, always suffers from damages of moderate and large earthquakes from ancient era to modern time. Therefore, temporal prediction of earthquake occurrence in this kind of area is an important topic. For this purpose, 628 moderate-large (5.5 ≤MS≤ 8.2) earthquakes occurred in Persia during the period from 400 B.C. to 2015 C.E. were used. Considering the magnitudes of events preceding main shocks and the annual seismic moment release in seismic source areas in the provinces, we calibrated equations predicting inter-event time of occurrence of moderate and large earthquakes (MW>5.5) in Iran. In each source area, inter-event times between moderate and large shocks with magnitudes equal to or larger than a certain cut-off magnitude (MW5.5) were calculated. The inter-event times between the earthquakes were used to compute the relationships using multiple regression technique. Calculated relationships express the basic idea of the time predictable model predicting the occurrence time of the future main shock in a certain seismogen area. However, despite of unavoidable scatter in observations and uncertainties in the results, occurrence times of main shocks during the next years and decades in some source areas in Iran were determined.  相似文献   

20.
Northeast India and adjoining regions (20°–32° N and 87°–100° E) are highly vulnerable to earthquake hazard in the Indian sub-continent, which fall under seismic zones V, IV and III in the seismic zoning map of India with magnitudes M exceeding 8, 7 and 6, respectively. It has experienced two devastating earthquakes, namely, the Shillong Plateau earthquake of June 12, 1897 (M w 8.1) and the Assam earthquake of August 15, 1950 (M w 8.5) that caused huge loss of lives and property in the Indian sub-continent. In the present study, the probabilities of the occurrences of earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 7.0 during a specified interval of time has been estimated on the basis of three probabilistic models, namely, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal, with the help of the earthquake catalogue spanning the period 1846 to 1995. The method of maximum likelihood has been used to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters. The logarithmic probability of likelihood function (ln L) is estimated and used to compare the suitability of models and it was found that the Gamma model fits best with the actual data. The sample mean interval of occurrence of such earthquakes is estimated as 7.82 years in the northeast India region and the expected mean values for Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal distributions are estimated as 7.837, 7.820 and 8.269 years, respectively. The estimated cumulative probability for an earthquake M ≥ 7.0 reaches 0.8 after about 15–16 (2010–2011) years and 0.9 after about 18–20 (2013–2015) years from the occurrence of the last earthquake (1995) in the region. The estimated conditional probability also reaches 0.8 to 0.9 after about 13–17 (2008–2012) years in the considered region for an earthquake M ≥ 7.0 when the elapsed time is zero years. However, the conditional probability reaches 0.8 to 0.9 after about 9–13 (2018–2022) years for earthquake M ≥ 7.0 when the elapsed time is 14 years (i.e. 2009).  相似文献   

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