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1.
Application of the time-predictable model in Peninsular India for future seismic hazard assessment 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
It has been the belief among Earth scientists that the Peninsular Shield is aseismic, as the region attained stability long
ago. However, the earthquake at Koyna (10 December 1967), Bhadrachalam (13 April 1969), Broach (23 March 1970), Hyderabad
(30 June 1983), Khillari (30 September 1993), Jabalpur (22 May 1997), Gujarat (26 January 2001), and additional ones of smaller
magnitudes, altered this concept. This area has experienced many widely distributed shallow earthquakes, some of them having
large magnitudes. It is now widely accepted that seismic activity still continues with moderate events. Therefore, a need
has arisen to take into consideration recent seismological data to assess the future seismic status of Peninsular India. Earthquake
generation model has been studied to develop the statistical relations with surface wave magnitude (M
S
≥ 4.5). Five seismogenic sources showing clustering of earthquakes and including at least three main shocks of magnitude
4.5 ≤ M
S
≤ 6.5 giving two repeat times, have been identified. It is mainly based on the so-called “regional time-predictable model”.
For the considered region it is observed that the time interval between two consecutive main shocks depends on the preceding
main shock magnitude (M
p
) not on the following main shocks magnitude M
f
suggesting the validity of time predictable model in the region. 相似文献
2.
2016年8月24日意大利中部发生MW6.0地震,2个月之后,震中附近相继发生MW5.5、MW5.9、MW6.5地震。研究这几次较大地震间的相互触发作用及机制十分必要,然而在大地震之后传统地震目录通常缺失很多余震事件,缺失的余震事件包含着早期余震时空分布和迁移规律的信息,为完善余震目录本文利用匹配滤波方法对MW6.0地震后80天内的连续数据进行余震检测,得到了数十倍于模板数量的新检测事件,检测事件与模板事件组成的新余震目录完备震级为1.0,提高了地震目录的完备性。依据新余震目录进行余震时空分布研究,结果显示MW6.0、MW5.9、MW6.5地震的早期余震迁移规律不同。MW6.0地震的早期余震沿着断裂走向同时朝两侧迁移;而MW5.9、MW6.5地震的早期余震向南、北迁移表示出不对称的特征。通过拟合余震迁移前端发现,MW6.0、MW5.5地震的早期余震朝着随后较大地震的方向迁移,且较符合lgt的特征,表明余震迁移可能与慢滑动有关。 相似文献
3.
Estimation of Maximum Earthquakes in Northeast India 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
We attempt to estimate possible maximum earthquakes in the northeast Indian region for four seismic source zones, namely EHZ,
MBZ, EBZ, and SHZ, which encapsulates the various seismogenic structures of the region and also for combined source zones
taken as a single seismic source regime. The latter case exhibits a high maximum earthquake estimate of MW 9.4 (±0.85) through Bayesian interpretation of frequency magnitude distribution with Gamma function implicating a moderate
deviation from the standard Gutenberg Richter model at the higher magnitudes. However, tapering Gutenberg Richter models with
corner magnitudes at MW 8.01, 8.7 and 9.1, respectively indicated maximum values corresponding to MW 8.4, 9.0, and 9.3. The former approach was applied to each of the source zones wherein the data are presented in parts according
to the data completeness, thereof. EHZ, MBZ, EBZ and SHZ are seen with maximum earthquakes of MW 8.35 (±0.59), 8.79 (±0.31), 8.20 (±0.50), and 8.73 (±0.70), respectively. The maximum possible earthquakes estimated for
each individual zone are seen to be lower than that estimated for the single regime. However, the pertaining return periods
estimated for the combined zone are far less than those estimated for the demarcated ones. 相似文献
4.
内蒙古中西部地区中小地震矩震级研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
基于S震相"S窗"内的波形信号识别、品质因子Q(f)和22个台站场地响应,利用2009~2016年3月内蒙古中西部地区地震的波形资料,反演了182次中小地震的震源波谱参数,得到这些小震的零频幅值及其拐角频率,据此计算了这些地震的地震矩M_0、矩震级M_W和应力降Δσ。利用回归分析方法得到了近震震级与矩震级、矩震级与应力降的关系式。分析表明,近震震级与矩震级、矩震级与应力降呈线性关系。可见,将矩震级纳入地震的快报与正式目录中,可以丰富地震观测报告内容,更好地为地震应急和地震科研服务。 相似文献
5.
Mihnea Corneliu Oncescu 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1986,124(4-5):931-940
The method of relative seismic moment tensor determination proposed byStrelitz (1980) is extended a) from an interactive time domain analysis to an automated frequency domain procedure, and b) from an analysis of subevents of complex deep-focus earthquakes to the study of individual source mechanism of small events recorded at few stations.The method was applied to the recovery of seismic moment tensor components of 95 intermediate depth earthquakes withM
L=2.6–4.9 from the Vrancea region, Romania. The main feature of the obtained fault plane solutions is the horizontality ofP axes and the nonhorizontal orienaation ofT axes (inverse faulting). Those events with high fracture energy per unit area of the fault can be grouped unambiguously into three depth intervals: 102–106 km, 124–135 km and 141–152 km. Moreover, their fault plane solutions are similar to ones of all strong and most moderate events from this region and the last two damaging earthquakes (November 10, 1940 withM
W=7.8 and March 4 1977 withM
W=7.5) occurred within the third and first depth interval, respectively. This suggests a possible correlation at these depths between fresh fracture of rocks and the occurrence of strong earthquakes. 相似文献
6.
Jeen-Hwa Wang 《Journal of Seismology》2013,17(3):913-924
The M?≥?6 earthquakes occurred in the South–North Seismic Belt, Mainland China, during 1901–2008 are taken to study the possible existence of memory effect in large earthquakes. The fluctuation analysis technique is applied to analyze the sequences of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time represented in the natural time domain. Calculated results show that the exponents of scaling law of fluctuation versus window length are less than 0.5 for the sequences of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time. The migration of earthquakes in study is taken to discuss the possible correlation between events. The phase portraits of two sequent magnitudes and two sequent inter-event times are also applied to explore if large (or small) earthquakes are followed by large (or small) events. Together with all kinds of given information, we conclude that the earthquakes in study is short-term correlated and thus the short-term memory effect would be operative. 相似文献
7.
Temporal distribution of earthquakes with M w > 6 in the Dasht-e-Bayaz region, eastern Iran has been investigated using time-dependent models. Based on these types of models, it is assumed that the times between consecutive large earthquakes follow a certain statistical distribution. For this purpose, four time-dependent inter-event distributions including the Weibull, Gamma, Lognormal, and the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) are used in this study and the associated parameters are estimated using the method of maximum likelihood estimation. The suitable distribution is selected based on logarithm likelihood function and Bayesian Information Criterion. The probability of the occurrence of the next large earthquake during a specified interval of time was calculated for each model. Then, the concept of conditional probability has been applied to forecast the next major (M w > 6) earthquake in the site of our interest. The emphasis is on statistical methods which attempt to quantify the probability of an earthquake occurring within a specified time, space, and magnitude windows. According to obtained results, the probability of occurrence of an earthquake with M w > 6 in the near future is significantly high. 相似文献
8.
Two moderate earthquakes of magnitudesM
s=5.5 and 6.0 occurred in 1974 and 1979, respectively, in the Liyang region, Jiangsu Province, China. The distance between the two epicenters is less than 20 km and their source mechanisms are very similar. In comparing these two earthquakes, we notice that the similarity of coseismic effects is consistent with a scaling law. The isoseismals of the two earthquakes resemble each other in overall shape but the difference of intensity between pairs of coincident isoseismals is one degree. The precursory seismicity patterns of the two events, such as seismic gaps and preshock swarms, are similar, but do not scale to magnitudes of mainshock. The latter phenomenon may reflect the regional tectonic structure, assuming the entire region to be subjected to the same stress. 相似文献
9.
In order to estimate the recurrence intervals for large earthquakes occurring in eastern Anatolia, this region enclosed within
the coordinates of 36∘–42∘N, 35∘–45∘E has been separated into nine seismogenic sources on the basis of certain seismological and geomorphological criteria, and
a regional time- and magnitude-predictable model has been applied for these sources. This model implies that the magnitude
of the preceding main shock which is the largest earthquake during a seismic excitation in a seismogenic source governs the
time of occurrence and the magnitude of the expected main shock in this source. The data belonging to both the instrumental
period (MS≥ 5.5) until 2003 and the historical period (I0≥ 9.0 corresponding to MS≥ 7.0) before 1900 have been used in the analysis. The interevent time between successive main shocks with magnitude equal
to or larger than a certain minimum magnitude threshold were considered in each of the nine source regions within the study
area. These interevent times as well as the magnitudes of the main shocks have been used to determine the following relations:
fwawhere Tt is the interevent time measured in years, Mmin is the surface wave magnitude of the smallest main shock considered, Mp is the magnitude of the preceding main shock, Mf is magnitude of the following main shock, and M0 is the released seismic moment per year in each source. Multiple correlation coefficient and standard deviation have been
computed as 0.50 and 0.28, respectively for the first relation. The corresponding values for the second relation are 0.64
and 0.32, respectively. It was found that the magnitude of the following main shock Mf does not depend on the preceding interevent time Tt. This case is an interesting property for earthquake prediction since it provides the ability to predict the time of occurrence
of the next strong earthquake. On the other hand, a strong negative dependence of Mf on Mp was found. This result indicates that a large main shock is followed by a smaller magnitude one and vice versa. On the basis
of the first one of the relations above and taking into account the occurrence time and magnitude of the last main shock,
the probabilities of occurrence P(Δ t) of main shocks in each seismogenic source of the east Anatolia during the next 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years for earthquakes
with magnitudes equal 6.0 and 7.0 were determined. The second of these relations has been used to estimate the magnitude of
the expected main shock. According to the time- and magnitude-predictable model, it is expected that a strong and a large
earthquake can occur in seismogenic Source 2 (Erzincan) with the highest probabilities of P10 = 66% (Mf = 6.9 and Tt = 12 years) and P10 = 44% (Mf = 7.3 and Tt = 24 years) during the future decade, respectively. 相似文献
10.
E. M. Scordilis 《Journal of Seismology》2006,10(2):225-236
The existence of several magnitude scales used by seismological centers all over the world and the compilation of earthquake catalogs by many authors have rendered globally valid relations connecting magnitude scales a necessity. This would allow the creation of a homogeneous global earthquake catalog, a useful tool for earthquake research. Of special interest is the definition of global relations converting different magnitude scales to the most reliable and useful scale of magnitude, the moment magnitude, M
W. In order to accomplish this, a very large sample of data from international seismological sources (ISC, NEIC, HRVD, etc.) has been collected and processed. The magnitude scales tested against M
W are the surface wave magnitude, M
S, the body wave magnitude, m
b, and the local magnitude, M
L. The moment magnitudes adopted have been taken from the CMT solutions of HRVD and USGS. The data set used in this study contains 20,407 earthquakes, which occurred all over the world during the time period 1.1.1976–31.5.2003, for which moment magnitudes are available. It is shown that well-defined relations hold between M
W and m
b and M
S and that these relations can be reliably used for compiling homogeneous, with respect to magnitude, earthquake catalogs. 相似文献
11.
Jeen-Hwa Wang 《Journal of Seismology》2014,18(3):467-480
The M?≥?7 earthquakes that occurred in the Taiwan region during 1906–2006 are taken to study the possibility of memory effect existing in the sequence of those large earthquakes. Those events are all mainshocks. The fluctuation analysis technique is applied to analyze two sequences in terms of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time represented in the natural time domain. For both magnitude and inter-event time, the calculations are made for three data sets, i.e., the original order data, the reverse-order data, and that of the mean values. Calculated results show that the exponents of scaling law of fluctuation versus window length are less than 0.5 for the sequences of both magnitude and inter-event time data. In addition, the phase portraits of two sequent magnitudes and two sequent inter-event times are also applied to explore if large (or small) earthquakes are followed by large (or small) events. Results lead to a negative answer. Together with all types of information in study, we make a conclusion that the earthquake sequence in study is short-term corrected and thus the short-term memory effect would be operative. 相似文献
12.
Yushou Xie 《地震学报(英文版)》1992,5(3):635-646
The earthquakes offshore Fujian and Guangdong Provinces concentrated along the two segments near Nan’ao in the south and Quanzhou
in the north of the off coast fault, which is very active since the late Pleistocene. In 1918 and 1906, two earthquakes with
magnitudes 7.3 and 6.1 respectively occurred in the south and the north regions. With the instrumentally determined seismic
parameters of these two earthquakes as standards, the author evaluated the parameters of the historical earthquakes by comparing
their macroseismic materials with consideration of the geological background. As a result, chronological tables of historical
earthquakes of the south and the north regions were compiled.
The seismic activity of the two regions synchronized basically, and their strongest recorded earthquakes were both aroundM
s 7.3. Seismic activity usually intensified before the occurrence of strong events. Aftershocks were frequent, but strong aftershocks
usually occurred one to several years after the main shock. Two high tides of seismic activity occurred since the late 15th
century. Around 1600, eight earthquakes each with magnitudes over 4.3 occurred in both of the two regions. The magnitude of
the strongest shock in the south region is 6.7, that in the north region is 7.5. The second high tide occurred at the early
20th century. Among the 18 earthquakes occurred in the south region, one was of magnitude 7.3; whilst only two earthquakes
with magnitudes 6.1 and 5.5 respectively occurred in the north region. Further, medium to strong earthquakes never occurred
since 1942. Whether this is the “mitigation effect” of strong shocks, or a big earthquake is brewing in the north region is
worth intensive study.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 505–515, 1991.
This work is supported by Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation. 相似文献
13.
Jayant Nath Tripathi 《Journal of Seismology》2006,10(1):119-130
Kutch region of Gujrat is one of the most seismic prone regions of India. Recently, it has been rocked by a large earthquake (M
w
= 7.7) on January 26, 2001. The probabilities of occurrence of large earthquake (M≥6.0 and M≥5.0) in a specified interval of time for different elapsed times have been estimated on the basis of observed time-intervals between the large earthquakes (M≥6.0 and M≥5.0) using three probabilistic models, namely, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal. The earthquakes of magnitude ≥5.0 covering about 180 years have been used for this analysis. However, the method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) has been applied for computation of earthquake hazard parameters. The mean interval of occurrence of earthquakes and standard deviation are estimated as 20.18 and 8.40 years for M≥5.0 and 36.32 and 12.49 years, for M≥6.0, respectively, for this region. For the earthquakes M≥5.0, the estimated cumulative probability reaches 0.8 after about 27 years for Lognormal and Gamma models and about 28 years for Weibull model while it reaches 0.9 after about 32 years for all the models. However, for the earthquakes M≥6.0, the estimated cumulative probability reaches 0.8 after about 47 years for all the models while it reaches 0.9 after about 53, 54 and 55 years for Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal model, respectively. The conditional probability also reaches about 0.8 to 0.9 for the time period of 28 to 40 years and 50 to 60 years for M≥5.0 and M≥6.0, respectively, for all the models. The probability of occurrence of an earthquake is very high between 28 to 42 years for the magnitudes ≥5.0 and between 47 to 55 years for the magnitudes ≥6.0, respectively, past from the last earthquake (2001). 相似文献
14.
A large earthquake (M
W=7.6) occurred in Jiji (Chi-Chi), Taiwan, China on September 20, 1999, and was followed by many moderate-size shocks in the
following days. Two of the largest aftershocks with the magnitudes of M
W=6.1 and M
W=6.2, respectively, were used as empirical Green’s functions (EGFs) to obtain the source time functions (STFs) of the main
shock from long-period waveform data of the Global Digital Seismograph Network (GDSN) including IRIS, GEOSCOPE and CDSN. For
the M
W=6.1 aftershock of September 22, there were 97 pairs of phases clear enough from 78 recordings of 26 stations; for the M
W=6.2 aftershock of September 25, there were 81 pairs of phases clear enough from 72 recordings of 24 stations. For each station,
2 types of STFs were retrieved, which are called P-STF and S-STF due to being from P and S phases, respectively. Totally,
178 STF individuals were obtained for source-process analysis of the main shock. It was noticed that, in general, STFs from
most of the stations had similarities except that those in special azimuths looked different or odd due to the mechanism difference
between the main shock and the aftershocks; and in detail, the shapes of the STFs varied with azimuth. Both of them reflected
the stability and reliability of the retrieved STFs. The comprehensive analysis of those STFs suggested that this event consisted
of two sub-events, the total duration time was about 26 s, and on the average, the second event was about 7 s later than the
first one, and the moment-rate amplitude of the first event was about 15% larger than that of the second one.
Foundation item: State Natural Science Foundation of China (49904004) and IPGP of France.
Contribution No. 02FE2007, Institute of Geophysics, China Seismological Bureau. 相似文献
15.
目前,人们还无法准确地预报地震。找到地震和某种物理量之间的关系,积极地研究地震的触发因素具有非常深远的意义。漂浮在软流层上的地球板块随地球一起转动,地球自转变化可能对强震有一定的触发作用。统计2000年以后全球MW7.9以上强震和地球自转周期、极移以及章动的关系,发现全球强震和大约13～15天的日长变化、大约一年周期极移变化以及十几天左右不规则章动有很强的关联性。通过贝叶斯公式分析,强震发生在日长变化拐点处的概率为随机概率的3倍,发生在极移X方向拐点处的概率为随机概率的6倍,发生在极移Y方向拐点处的概率为随机概率的3倍,发生在章动拐点处的概率为随机概率的2倍。这种拐点不是固定周期,它受到各种摄动因素而发生不规则漂移,全球强震往往发生在上述周期变化的拐点处。希望以上结论能对大地震预报提供有益的参考信息。 相似文献
16.
The catalogue of earthquakes recorded in Iran during 2006–2010 by a dense network of digital telemetric seismic stations is
analyzed. The spectrum of the time series of these earthquakes contains a sharp maximum at 24 h. The corresponding curve of
diurnal periodicity constructed by the superposed epoch method has a clear double-peak maximum near noon(11 a.m.-5 p.m. local
time), which exceeds the level of seismic activity observed during the rest time of the day by a factor of 3-3.5. In the same
time interval, the average hourly magnitudes of seismic events sharply drop from M = 2.15 to M = 1.95. The ratio of the normalized number of earthquakes in the daytime to those at other times of the day, which was determined
within a moving window half a square degree in size, has seven distinct compact spatially isolated maxima whose magnitudes
attain several dozens to a hundred units. These maxima are probably caused by industrial activity, such as road building and
quarry explosions. We also note the presence of the weekend effect when the daytime maximum in the weekly curve of diurnal
variations in seismic activity almost completely disappears on Friday, which is the weekend in Muslim countries. At the same
time, elimination of the supposed noise component from the catalogue by the approved technique changes nothing for the daytime
maximum in the daily pattern of earthquakes in Iran. In order to account for this inconsistency, we suggest invoking additional
information on the technogenic seismicity and considering weak earthquakes induced by quarry explosions and vibrations of
industrial machines, in particular, power units of numerous hydroelectric power stations distributed over the territory of
Iran. 相似文献
17.
A collection of ground‐motion recordings (1070 acceleration records) of moderate (5.1⩽ML⩽6.5) earthquakes obtained during the execution of the Taiwan Strong Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP) since 1991 was used to study source scaling model and attenuation relations for a wide range of earthquake magnitudes and distances and to verify the models developed recently for the Taiwan region. The results of the analysis reveal that the acceleration spectra of the most significant part of the records, starting from S‐wave arrival, can be modelled accurately using the Brune's ω‐squared source model with magnitude‐dependent stress parameter Δσ, that should be determined using the recently proposed regional relationships between magnitude (ML) and seismic moment (M0) and between M0 and Δσ. The anelastic attenuation Q of spectral amplitudes with distance may be described as Q=225 ƒ1.1 both for deep (depth more than 35 km) and shallow earthquakes. The source scaling and attenuation models allow a satisfactory prediction of the peak ground acceleration for magnitudes 5.1⩽M⩽6.5 and distances up to about 200 km in the Taiwan region, and may be useful for seismic hazard assessment. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
19.
ＳｏｕｒｃｅｐａｒａｍｅｔｅｒｓｏｆｔｈｅＧｏｎｇｈｅ，ＱｉｎｇｈａｉＰｒｏｖｉｎｃｅ，Ｃｈｉｎａ，ｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｆｒｏｍｉｎｖｅｒｓｉｏｎｏｆｄｉｇｉｔａｌｂｒｏａｄｂａｎｄｗａｖｅｆｏｒｍｄａｔａＬＩ－ＳＨＥＮＧＸＵ（许立生）ａｎｄＹＵＮ... 相似文献
20.
Maximum earthquake size varies considerably amongst the subduction zones. This has been interpreted as a variation in the seismic coupling, which is presumably related to the mechanical conditions of the fault zone. The rupture process of a great earthquake indicates the distribution of strong (asperities) and weak regions of the fault. The rupture process of three great earthquakes (1963 Kurile Islands, MW = 8.5; 1965 Rat Islands, MW = 8.7; 1964 Alaska, MW = 9.2) are studied by using WWSSN stations in the core shadow zone. Diffraction around the core attenuates the P-wave amplitudes such that on-scale long-period P-waves are recorded. There are striking differences between the seismograms of the great earthquakes; the Alaskan earthquake has the largest amplitude and a very long-period nature, while the Kurile Islands earthquake appears to be a sequence of magnitude 7.5 events.The source time functions are deconvolved from the observed records. The Kurile Islands rupture process is characterized by the breaking of asperities with a length scale of 40–60 km, and for the Alaskan earthquake the dominant length scale in the epicentral region is 140–200 km. The variation of length scale and MW suggests that larger asperities cause larger earthquakes. The source time function of the 1979 Colombia earthquake (MW = 8.3) is also deconvolved. This earthquake is characterized by a single asperity of length scale 100–120 km, which is consistent with the above pattern, as the Colombia subduction zone was previously ruptured by a great (MW = 8.8) earthquake in 1906.The main result is that maximum earthquake size is related to the asperity distribution on the fault. The subduction zones with the largest earthquakes have very large asperities (e.g. the Alaskan earthquake), while the zones with the smaller great earthquakes (e.g. Kurile Islands) have smaller scattered asperities. 相似文献